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Evaluation and Prediction of Marine Biodiversity Changes Using Species Distribution Models

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Evaluation and Prediction of Marine Biodiversity Changes Using Species Distribution Models Title Evaluation and prediction of marine biodiversity changes using species distribution models Author(s) 須藤, 健二 Citation 北海道大学. 博士(環境科学) 甲第13893号 Issue Date 2020-03-25 DOI 10.14943/doctoral.k13893 Doc URL http://hdl.handle.net/2115/80530 Type theses (doctoral) File Information Kenji_SUDO.pdf Instructions for use Hokkaido University Collection of Scholarly and Academic Papers : HUSCAP Evaluation and prediction of marine biodiversity changes using species distribution models Dissertation Kenji Sudo Graduate School of Environmental Science Division of Biosphere Science 2020 Table of contents Summary ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- v Acknowledgements ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- x Chapter 1 General Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------ 1 1.1 Marine ecosystems and their biodiversity -------------------------------------- 2 1.2 Information of marine biodiversity ------------------------------------------------ 3 1.3 General description of species distribution modeling---------------------- 5 1.4 Future prediction of marine biodiversity ---------------------------------------- 7 1.5 Objectives and chapter outline ----------------------------------------------------- 8 References ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 10 Chapter 2 Predictions of kelp distribution shifts along the northern coast of Japan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 2.1 Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 15 2.2 Methods ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 2.2.1 Scope and species --------------------------------------------------------------- 18 2.2.2 Data collection --------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 2.2.3 Species distribution models -------------------------------------------------- 19 2.2.4 Environmental dataset for estimating species distribution -------- 20 2.2.5 Environmental dataset for future projections -------------------------- 21 2.3 Results------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 2.3.1 Species distribution and biodiversity of Laminariaceae ------------ 22 i 2.3.2 Future projections ---------------------------------------------------------------- 24 2.4 Discussion ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 2.4.1 Species distribution and biodiversity of Laminariaceae ------------ 25 2.4.2 Future projections ---------------------------------------------------------------- 28 2.4.3 Implications for conservation and resource management --------- 30 2.5 Conclusions ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 32 Reference -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 34 Tables ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 44 Figures ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 48 Chapter 3 Fine-scale distribution of tropical seagrass beds in Southeast Asia ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 52 3.1 Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 52 3.2 List of data files ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 53 3.3 Metadata ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 54 3.3.1 Geographic coverage ----------------------------------------------------------- 54 3.3.2 Methods ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 54 3.4 Data structure --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 58 3.5 Accessibility ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 61 Reference -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 62 Chapter 4 Estimated distribution of tropical seagrasses species in Southeast Asia and their conservation status -------------------------------------- 64 4.1 Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 64 ii 4.2 Methods ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 67 4.2.1 Scope and species --------------------------------------------------------------- 67 4.2.2 Data collection --------------------------------------------------------------------- 67 4.2.3 Species distribution models -------------------------------------------------- 68 4.2.4 Environmental dataset for estimating species distribution -------- 69 4.2.5 Implications for conservation and resource management --------- 70 4.3 Results------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 71 4.3.1 Species distribution and biodiversity of seagrasses ---------------- 71 4.3.2 Protection status of the seagrasses --------------------------------------- 72 4.4 Discussion ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 73 4.4.1 Species distribution estimates ----------------------------------------------- 73 4.4.2 Conservation status ------------------------------------------------------------- 75 4.5 Conclusions ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 76 Reference -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 78 Tables ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 84 Figures ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 93 Chapter 5 Current species distribution and future projection for copepods in the western North Pacific --------------------------------------------------------------- 95 5.1 Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 95 5.2 Methods ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 98 5.2.1 Target area and species -------------------------------------------------------- 98 5.2.2 Data collection --------------------------------------------------------------------- 99 5.2.3 Species distribution models ------------------------------------------------ 100 iii 5.2.4 Environmental data set ------------------------------------------------------- 100 5.2.5 Future projection --------------------------------------------------------------- 101 5.3 Results----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 102 5.3.1 Species distribution and their seasonal variation ------------------ 102 5.3.2 Future projection --------------------------------------------------------------- 103 5.4 Discussion ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 104 Reference ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 111 Tables ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 119 Figures ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 123 Chapter 6 General Discussion ---------------------------------------------------------- 127 6.1 Evaluation and prediction of marine biodiversity using species distribution models ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 128 6.2 Problems associated with species distribution modeling --------------- 129 6.2.1 Data collection --------------------------------------------------------------------- 129 6.2.2 Environmental factors ----------------------------------------------------------- 130 6.2.3 Temporal scale --------------------------------------------------------------------- 132 6.2.4 Spatial scale ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 133 6.3 Future projection for marine ecosystems ------------------------------------- 134 6.4 Social implementation ---------------------------------------------------------------- 135 6.5 Conclusion and implications ------------------------------------------------------- 136 References ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 139 iv Summary Chapter 1 Information on marine biodiversity patterns is important to facilitate systematic conservation planning. In this chapter, I examined patterns of marine biodiversity and their information. Marine biodiversity of the western Pacific is the highest in the world, whereas there is a large scientific knowledge gap. To fill the knowledge gap, I examined effectiveness of species distribution models (SDMs). In this thesis, I examined how SDMs are effective to understand patterns of marine biodiversity across different taxonomic groups. I also examined their future changes because climate change is one of the main factors causing decline of marine biodiversity. Chapter 2 Japanese kelps are important because they offer valuable ecosystem functions in coastal ecosystems, and because they are important food resources. The present study aimed to predict future shifts in major kelp species in northern Japan under different climate change scenarios. From a database of kelp species in cold seawater in Japan, I extracted 1,958 data points to estimate the distribution of 11
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