MAV Rural and Regional Planning Conference Click to edit Master Population profiling and forecasting for Local subtitle style Government – The Regional experience.

May 2019 About informed decisions

.id is a company of demographers, housing analysts, forecasters and Census data experts who have developed demographic information products specifically for Local Government market.

.id stands for “informed decisions” and our work is to provide decision makers within government and the community with readily accessible, easy to use information about the people living in their communities of interest.

.id’s products give Councils the evidence base to plan housing policy and service delivery, attract investment and promote their region, support funding submissions and compete for resources, advocate for the community and work collaboratively.

Of the 48 Local Government Areas in Regional Victoria: • 30 subscribe to our community profile (profile.id) • 18 have our population forecasts (forecast.id) • 2 have our economic profile (economy.id) WHY ? • Presents Census data in a usable format, relevant to the local area. • Charts and tables are set up for “Dominant-Emerging” analysis. • What are the dominant characteristics of this place (relative to a selected geographic benchmark)? • How are those characteristics changing over time?

• Benchmarks, years, and small area geography are negotiated with the individual council, to best reflect communities of interest in the region.

3 WHY ? • But the main value-add is the ability to represent local geography over a long time period. • We adjust all boundaries to represent CURRENT geographic areas (suburbs/towns/localities) for up to 6 Census time periods. • 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016. • The user can get on with telling the story of the place, not needing to re-crunch the numbers, or worry about changing arbitrary Census boundaries.

4 See our high level profile for Australia, Capital Cities and Regional parts of State: http://profile.id.com.au/australia

5 Who is Regional Victoria?

• Current population of approximately 1.5 million (2018) • Growing at approximately 20,000 people per annum • Older than Metropolitan Australia, but also with more teenagers • Ageing – in percentage terms, while there is growth in young people. • Compared to Metropolitan - Lower levels of qualifications, attendance at university, lower participation rate but also lower unemployment. • 87 languages spoken, with at least 10 speakers. • 1.6% of the population identify as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander

6 Lower incomes, but increases across the board

7 Increasing cultural diversity

8 VIC LGA population growth, 2013-2018

9 GENERAL MIGRATION TRENDS

Interaction between Melbourne and Regional Victoria

• In net terms – young people move to Inner Melbourne, and some of the larger centres. • Young families move to the outer suburbs of Melbourne, and growth areas around our bigger centres. Some smaller centres also grow with low income groups seeking affordable housing. • Mature families move to rural residential areas within commuting distance of Melbourne and larger centres. • More remote and smaller centres decline, while those within 150km of Melbourne, plus the larger centres over 20,000 gain from these areas.

10 But regional Victoria is not just one place. The main value of having .id is that we use local information to tell the story of place. We believe passionately that each place has its own story to tell, and we work with our clients to tell these stories and understand them.

Take these three places in Regional Victoria….

Wonthaggi • 130km from Melbourne in Bass Coast Shire, one of the fastest growing areas in Regional Vic. • Growing centre of tourism area. Adding ~100-200 people per annum. But Wonthaggi is the service town, not the tourism centre. • Also attracting young families re-settling from the eastern suburbs of Melbourne. • And some retirees. • Older age structure.

11 Wonthaggi is older than regional Victoria overall…

Ageing, but with an influx of young families as well..

12 Household sizes are small, including older retirees and one parent families

Wonthaggi is attracting single parent families seeking more affordable housing, including some from Melbourne

13 There is a large rental market, including some social housing.

Incomes are relatively low…and increasing at the lower end.

14 Bass Coast Shire attracts families and retirees from the eastern and southern suburbs of Melbourne, while losing young people to inner Melbourne (like most of regional Vic) and families to the growth areas in the west of the City.

15 Casterton • 370km from Melbourne in the far south-west of Victoria. • Current population 1,642. • Part of the Glenelg Shire which has stable population – Portland growing slightly, while the remainder of the Shire declines. • Typical of an older agricultural town, which has lost a lot of population and is now quite elderly. • Challenge for local government in maintaining services to an older population. • Population is probably close to minimum but still some ageing to come.

16 Casterton has a median age of 55 (12 years more than the regional Vic average), and 19% of the population are over the age of 75.

Average household size of 1.99, has fallen 0.5 people per dwelling in 25 years.

17 There are very few children, and 1-2 person households are the norm.

Almost 50% of households are in the bottom income quartile for the state (25% for Victoria).

18 Loss of young people from a more remote area is quite stark.

The loss is not so much to metropolitan areas, but to larger regional centres – in this case, to , and .

19 So for our third example, let’s look at one of the larger regional centres…

Wodonga • 300km from Melbourne in the north-east corner of Vic, NSW border. Part of the - major centre. • Current population 41,429 • Growing between 1.5-2% p.a. • A young population (median age 36), major industries of Defence, Manufacturing, Health Care. • Substantial new housing – families attracted for work, and much more affordable housing than Melbourne or . Good transport connections to Melbourne, Sydney and . • Population is expected to overtake Albury in around 25 years.

20 Wodonga has a very young age structure, dominated by people in their 20s and 30s, and young children.

Still some ageing apparent, but there is strong growth in school age children.

21 A large rental and mortgage home buyer segment.

Biggest increase is in renters.

22 Incomes high for regional Vic (still a bit lower than Melbourne), and on the increase.

About 28% of Wodonga residents work in Albury, while 20% of Albury residents work in Wodonga.

23 Wodonga is gaining population from surrounding rural areas and smaller towns (sponge city), from Albury, and parts of Melbourne and Sydney.

It loses population to inner Melbourne and Geelong. It gains young people but also a lot of retirees.

24 What our forecasts are….

The most likely population and housing outcome (single scenario) based on all of the information available to us at the present time regarding supply and demand…

Regular monitor and review process – checked against current population every year and reviewed and adjusted as required.

…and what they’re not….

Not an aspirational forecast designed to attract investment. Not “projections” – bottom up forecasts based on locally driven assumptions. Not an attempt to match any other forecast (eg State Government, previous consultant reports) Not based on using all zoned land, regardless of demand How do we do the forecasts?

We workshop a set of assumptions with council: • Residential development assumptions • Migration assumptions • Birth and death rates (adjusted for age profile) • Household propensity • For more remote regional areas we look at employment as a critical driver of change as well. • Separate assumptions for each small area within the LGA (min pop. 2,000).

Even lower growth areas rely on our forecasts, so they can understand the future age and household structure, what happens when growth finishes?

It is a LOCALLY BASED model – one town can have completely different forecasts to its neighbour, even in the same LGA. So what do .id’s forecasts show for our 3 centres? WONTHAGGI

• Large growth driven by attraction of families from suburban Melbourne. • Most increases in family formation age groups, and young children. • Leads to a flattening out of the current slightly older age structure. Median age will decrease. Some increase in 85+ but only residual baby boomer growth. Most population increase is among younger groups. • Development on identified sites increasing from ~100 dwellings p.a. currently, to about 140 dwellings p.a. by 2036. • Review extending forecast to 2041 still to come. • Population for the combined area (Wonthaggi is split in two on our forecast site) rises from 9,100 in 2016 to 14,300 by 2036. • Majority of growth is driven by in-migration. Natural increase is fairly small. Wonthaggi Wonthaggi combined with North Wonthaggi - Population change forecast 2016, 2026, 2036 1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0 0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 and over

2016 2026 2036 So what do our forecasts show for our 3 centres? CASTERTON

• Current decline in population expected to bottom out – ageing continues, but there needs to be some working age population to support it. • Minimal growth, forecast to be 1,744 people by 2036. • Continued drain of young people to the larger centres. • Decline in middle aged, as the baby boomers age, increase in 75+, but only modest compared to what is there now. 21% of population over 75 by 2036, but 45% over 60. • Almost 50% in lone person households. • Some older population moves away to larger centres seeking proximity to health care facilities, so resultant population doesn’t age quite as much as you might think. Casterton

So what do our forecasts show for our 3 centres? WODONGA

• The City of Wodonga shows a large increase fueled by economic growth of the larger region. • Families seeking affordable housing in a major regional centre settle in new housing areas of Wodonga to the south of the City. • Places like White Box Rise and Baranduda have the most growth. • Total population increase from 39,900 in 2016, to 57,300 in 2036. • Albury-Wodonga combined should be around 125,000 by this time, with almost equal populations. • Age structure to remain relatively young. By 2036, the largest single group will be 0-4 year olds. • But proportionally the largest increases are among older groups, with 85+ almost doubling. Wodonga

Overall forecast growth for Regional Victoria – tops down model

Forecast macro-level population change, Melbourne and Regional Victoria (GCCSAs) 2016 2026 2036 Average annual % Melbourne 4,725,316 5,854,742 6,881,186 1.9%

Regional Victoria 1,453,933 1,662,932 1,868,302 1.3%

Source: .id SAFi forecasts, 2017 Population growth of major LGAs – forecast growth rates over time

Average Centre (LGA) 2016 (ERP) 2026 2036 annual

Greater Geelong 239,529 296,416 352,618 2.0% Ballarat 103,500 123,061 143,244 1.6% 112,267 134,592 158,280 1.7% 65,072 73,221 79,147 1.0% Warrnambool 34,242 38,436 42,569 1.1% Wodonga 40,100 49,139 57,242 1.8% Mildura 54,658 59,797 64,512 0.8% Horsham 19,884 21,746 23,307 0.8% Latrobe Valley 74,622 82,858 91,505 1.0%

Source: .id SAFi forecasts, 2017 SUMMARY • Regional Victoria’s population is growing, about 20k p.a., but it’s very uneven. • Smaller, more remote areas are declining. • Rural residential and larger centres increasing, with migration out of Melbourne and from NSW. • .id’s population forecasts make sense of future change at a local level, using a “bottom up” approach, though we do have some constraints at the top end.

Utilise the resources you have. https://home.id.com.au/demographic-resources/ https://profile.id.com.au/

All our sites are publicly accessible. Also check out information about our new housing.id tool centred on affordable housing issues: https://home.id.com.au/services/demographic-information-tools/local-government-online-tools/housing-id/

If you don’t currently have a profile, forecast or economic profile for your local area, or would like to discuss training in the tools you do have at your council, come and have a chat to me during the breaks. Glenn Capuano

(03) 9417 2205 0408 318 544 [email protected] Connect with us