1088 VPBApr2001newcopy21/6/0110:52AMPage8

Victorian Population Bulletin 1088 VPB Apr 2001new copy 21/6/01 10:52 AM Page 4

Victorian The Department of Infrastructure facilitates an integrated approach to planning for future growth in , using the best research and Population information. Monitoring population change across the State is essential for making informed investment decisions.

Bulletin This issue of the VICTORIAN POPULATION BULLETIN provides valuable information monitoring population change as recorded in recent ABS publications. It covers comparative growth rates between the States and between the local government areas of Victoria. It also provides information on estimated overseas and interstate migration. i

Highlights of population change in Victoria during the last year

Victoria’s population grew by 1.24 per cent in the year ended 30 June 2000, compared to 1.13 per cent in the year ended 30 June 1999. grew by 1.04 per cent in the Data contained in the Bulletin year 1999–2000. are the latest estimates and figures of ABS. The annual growth rate of metropolitan was 1.53 per cent compared to 0.48 per cent for regional Victoria.

The Shire of Melton was the State’s fastest growing metropolitan local government area in 2000, while the municipality of Surf Coast grew fastest in regional Victoria

Net interstate migration to Victoria reached a record high during the 1999–2000 period with a net gain of 6,713 persons, second only to Queensland. This compares to the 1998–99 period figure of 3,975.

Victoria gained 24,752 of Australia’s 99,056 overseas migrants in the year ended 30 June 2000, representing a 25.0 per cent share of the national total, compared to a 25.4 per cent share in the previous year.

Overseas migration contributed 42.5 per cent of Victoria’s popula- tion increase over the year, net interstate migration contributed 11.5 per cent and natural increase (births minus deaths) represented 46 per cent of the total growth for the year.

Sixth Issue MaY 2001 1088 VPB Apr 2001new copy 21/6/01 10:52 AM Page 5

POPULATION CHANGE – Australia

POPULATION TRENDS For the year ended 30 June 2000, population grew by 1.16 per cent, compared to 1.10 per cent in 1998–99. AND PROSPECTS REPORT Victoria’s annual population change for the same period was 1.24 per cent, compared to 1.13 per cent in 1998–99. If you would like more detailed information than is presented in the Queensland had the highest population growth (1.70 per cent), Victorian Population Bulletin, please followed by Western Australia (1.41 per cent). consult the Population Trends and Tasmania had the lowest growth rate (-0.09 per cent), followed Prospects report on the Department’s by South Australia ( 0.35 per cent). web site at www.doi.vic.gov.au Population Trends and Prospects contains: Estimated resident population, for States and Territories* • highlights of population change over the past year and longer term State/Territory Estimated Estimated Absolute Annual trends and projections for Australia, resident resident population growth regional Victoria and metropolitan 20 population population change rate (%) Melbourne 30 June 1999 30 June 2000 1999–2000 1999–2000 • fertility rates – trends and 1 Victoria 4,707,590 4,765,856 58,266 1.24 projections – for Regional Victoria 2 New South Wales 6,396,703 6,463,455 66,752 1.04 and Metropolitan Melbourne 3 Queensland 3,506,881 3,566,357 59,476 1.70 • migration rates – trends and 4 South Australia 1,492,408 1,497,634 5,226 0.35 projections – for overseas, 5 Western Australia 1,857,586 1,883,860 26,274 1.41 interstate and intrastate 6 Tasmania 470,803 470,376 -427 -0.09 • household size – trends and 7 Northern Territory 192,724 195,463 2,739 1.42 projections – for regional Victoria 8 Australian Capital and metropolitan Melbourne Territory 309,295 310,839 1,544 0.5 • appendixes – detailed population and housing figures.

AUSTRALIA 18,937,166 19,157,037 219,871 1.16 State / Territory no. corresponds to numbers on maps State / Territory * Note: The Australian total includes other Territories. Source: ABS Cat. No. 3218.0, 20 February 2001

Annual growth rate (%) 1999–2000

7 3

5

4

2 8 1.5 to 2.0 (1) 1

1.0 to 1.5 (4)

0.5 to 1.0 (1) 6 0 to 0.5 (1)

-1.5 to 0 (1)

VICTORIAN POPULATION BULLETIN – Sixth Issue – May 2001 – Department of Infrastructure 2 1088 VPB Apr 2001new copy 21/6/01 10:52 AM Page 6

POPULATION CHANGE – Regional Victoria

The estimated resident population of Regional Victoria for Estimated resident population for regional local government areas the year ended 30 June 2000 was 1,299,113, an increase of Local Estimated Estimated 0.48 per cent, or 6,143 persons. resident resident Absolute Annual government Regional Victoria contained 27.26 per cent of Victoria’s area population population population growth 30 June 30 June change rate (%) population as at 30 June 2000. 1999 2000 1999–2000 1999–2000 The local government area with the highest population growth 1 Alpine (S) 12,456 12,665 209 1.7 rate for the year ending 30 June 2000 was 2 Ararat (RC) 11,516 11,318 -198 -1.7 (3.8 per cent, or 727 people), followed by 3 (C) 80,987 81,981 994 1.2 (2.8 per cent, or 397 persons) and (2.8 per cent, 4 Bass Coast (S) 22,541 23,175 634 2.8 or 634 persons). 5 Baw Baw (S) 34,930 35,353 423 1.2 6 Buloke (S) 7,518 7,268 -250 -3.3 The growth of regional Victoria occurred mainly in its 7 Campaspe (S) 35,487 35,574 87 0.2 regional centres led by Greater (2,638 persons), 8 Central Goldfields (S) 12,689 12,588 -101 -0.8 Greater (1,035 persons) and Ballarat (994 persons). 9 Colac-Otway (S) 20,239 20,217 -22 -0.1 10 Corangamite (S) 17,313 17,002 -311 -1.8 23 out of 47 local government areas in regional Victoria 11 Delatite (S) 20,260 20,109 -151 -0.7 lost population. 12 East (S) 39,314 39,083 -231 -0.6 Population decline continued in most of the , the 13 Gannawarra (S) 12,005 11,807 -198 -1.6 and eastern Victoria. 14 Glenelg (S) 20,186 19,863 -323 -1.6 15 Golden Plains (S) 14,082 14,479 397 2.8 Growth along the Murray was limited to the Mildura area, 16 Greater (C) 87,217 87,918 701 0.8 Moira and to . 17 Greater Geelong (C) 188,380 191,018 2,638 1.4 18 Greater Shepparton (C) 55,502 56,537 1,035 1.9 19 Hepburn (S) 14,030 14,102 72 0.5 20 Hindmarsh (S) 6,605 6,449 -156 -2.4 21 Horsham (RC) 18,167 18,162 -5 0.0 Annual growth rate in regional Victoria (%) 22 Indigo (S) 14,305 14,334 29 0.2 Local government area no. corresponds to numbers on maps 23 La Trobe (S) 69,994 69,192 -802 -1.1 1999–2000 24 Loddon (S) 8,843 8,665 -178 -2.0 25 Macedon Ranges (S) 35,844 36,319 475 1.3 26 Mildura (RC) 47,897 48,542 645 1.3 27 Mitchell (S) 26,852 27,283 431 1.6 28 Moira (S) 26,183 26,317 134 0.5 26 40 29 Moorabool (S) 23,963 24,197 234 1.0 30 Mount Alexander (S) 16,670 16,541 -129 -0.8 31 Moyne (S) 16,024 15,965 -59 -0.4 13 22 46 32 Murrindindi (S) 12,903 12,988 85 0.7 6 28 20 47 33 Northern (S) 13,167 13,041 -126 -1.0 7 24 18 41 34 Pyrenees (S) 6,725 6,631 -94 -1.4 42 35 Queenscliffe (B) 3,434 3,418 -16 -0.5 45 21 33 16 38 1 36 South Gippsland (S) 25,478 25,525 47 0.2 8 30 27 11 37 Southern Grampians (S) 16,915 16,554 -361 -2.1 19 25 32 12 38 Strathbogie (S) 9,313 9,316 3 0.0 37 2 34 3 29 39 Surf Coast (S) 19,208 19,935 727 3.8 14 17 44 40 (RC) 20,698 20,755 57 0.3 15 5 31 10 41 Towong (S) 6,310 6,156 -154 -2.4 39 23 35 42 (RC) 26,083 25,903 -180 -0.7 43 9 36 4 43 (C) 28,516 28,960 444 1.6 44 Wellington (S) 41,338 40,766 -572 -1.4 45 West Wimmera (S) 4,960 4,829 -131 -2.6 2.0 to 4.0 (3) 46 Wodonga (RC) 31,298 31,885 587 1.9 47 Yarriambiack (S) 8,554 8,357 -197 -2.3 1.0 to 2.0 (11) Unincorporated Vic 71 71 0 0.0 Total regional Victoria 1,292,970 1,299,113 6,143 0.48 0.5 to 1.0 (4)

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3218.0, 20 February 2001 -0.5 to 0.5 (10)

-2.0 to -0.5 (14) Note: data in the tables is rounded to the first decimal place. The values represented on the map are the actual values. -4.0 to -2.0 (6)

VICTORIAN POPULATION BULLETIN – Sixth Issue – May 2001 – Department of Infrastructure 3 1088 VPB Apr 2001new copy 21/6/01 10:52 AM Page 7

POPULATION CHANGE – Melbourne

Estimated resident population for metropolitan local The estimated resident population of metropolitan Melbourne government areas for the year ended 30 June 2000 was 3,466,743, an increase Local Estimated Estimated Absolute Annual of 1.53 per cent or 52,123 people since 30 June 1999. government resident resident population growth The highest growth rate over the year was achieved by the area population population change rates (%) and the Shire of Melton (both 9.6 per cent). 30 June 30 June 1999–2000 1999–2000 1999 2000 The City of Melbourne added 4,561 residents, and the Shire of Melton 4,433 residents. 1 Banyule (C) 119,345 119,206 -139 -0.1 2 Bayside (C) 89,411 90,717 1,306 1.5 The had the largest absolute increase 3 Boroondara (C) 158,248 159,701 1,453 0.9 (7,749 persons), a growth rate of 4.6 per cent. 4 Brimbank (C) 163,663 164,503 840 0.5 Only two Melbourne local government areas out of 31 lost 5 Cardinia (S) 45,040 45,834 794 1.8 population. The City of Moreland declined by 0.2 per cent 6 Casey (C) 167,162 174,911 7,749 4.6 (275 persons) and the declined by 0.1 per cent 7 Darebin (C) 129,471 129,786 315 0.2 (139 persons). 8 Frankston (C) 111,953 113,618 1,665 1.5 9 Glen Eira (C) 123,348 124,593 1,245 1.0 The annual growth rate of metropolitan Melbourne is 10 Gtr Dandenong (C) 131,714 131,814 100 0.1 1.53 per cent compared to 0.48 per cent for regional Victoria. Hobsons Bay (C) 82,489 83,562 1,073 1.3 11 Half of metropolitan Melbourne’s population growth was 12 (C) 129,463 133,275 3,812 2.9 concentrated in seven fringe local government areas. 13 Kingston (C) 134,171 135,251 1,080 0.8 14 Knox (C) 143,586 145,873 2,287 1.6 Fringe growth was most significant in western Melbourne 15 Manningham (C) 113,506 114,883 1,377 1.2 and in the outer south-eastern corridor. 16 Maribyrnong (C) 60,933 61,296 363 0.6 Growth in the outer east and the north-east was less 17 Maroondah (C) 98,377 99,325 948 1.0 significant than in the north and the Mornington Peninsula. 18 Melbourne (C) 47,462 52,023 4,561 9.6 19 Melton (S) 46,021 50,454 4,433 9.6 Most middle suburbs were stable during the year. 20 Monash (C) 162,418 163,570 1,152 0.7 21 Moonee Valley (C) 112,002 112,307 305 0.3 Moreland (C) 137,272 136,997 -275 -0.2

Local government area no. corresponds to numbers on maps 22 23 Mornington P’sula (S) 124,082 127,254 3,172 2.6 24 Nillumbik (S) 59,358 60,157 799 1.3 25 Port Phillip (C) 79,954 81,540 1,586 2.0 26 Stonnington (C) 91,092 92,558 1,466 1.6 27 Whitehorse (C) 146,832 147,272 440 0.3 Annual growth rate in Metropolitan 28 Whittlesea (C) 113,592 115,843 2,251 2.0 Melbourne (%) 1999–2000 29 Wyndham (C) 82,790 86,107 3,317 4.0 30 Yarra (C) 68,833 69,448 615 0.9 31 Yarra Ranges (S) 141,032 143,065 2,033 1.4 Total metro Melbourne 3,414,620 3,466,743 52,123 1.53 12 28 22 30 24 Source: ABS Cat. No. 3218.0, 20 February 2001 19 21 4 7 1 18 15 31 16 17 Note: data in the tables is rounded to the first decimal place. 3 27 The values represented on the map are the actual values. 26 14 29 11 25 9 20 2 13 10 5 8 6

23 4.0 to 10.0 (4)

2.0 to 4.0 (2)

1.0 to 2.0 (12)

0.5 to 1.0 (7)

-0.5 to 0.5 (6)

VICTORIAN POPULATION BULLETIN – Sixth Issue – May 2001 – Department of Infrastructure 4 1088 VPB Apr 2001new copy 21/6/01 10:52 AM Page 2

Interstate Migration

Interstate migration : arrivals and departures to and For the year ended 30 June 2000, Victoria’s net interstate from Victoria by States and Territories (year ended migration level was estimated to be 6,713 persons. This represents an increase of 2,738 persons, or 68.9 per cent 30 June 2000) over the previous year. This is the third year in a row that 30,000 Victoria has recorded an increase. Total arrivals Victoria and Queensland were the only two States/Territories 25,000 to show gains. Total departures 20,000 Victoria gained from every State except Queensland. Victoria’s positive net interstate migration level in 2000 15,000 was the result of 71,695 persons arriving in Victoria from interstate and 64,982 persons departing from Victoria to 10,000 interstate destinations during the year ended 30 June 2000.

Number of persons New South Wales recorded the greatest negative net 5,000 interstate migration level in the year ended 30 June 2000 (-15,586 persons). 0 NSW QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0, June quarter 2000

Net interstate migration by State 1987–2000 (number of persons)

States/ Territories 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

VIC -13,105 -14,423 -12,504 -7,829 -14,853 -18,427 -25,388 -29,195 -22,020 -12,800 -4,687 1,206 3,975 6,713 NSW -9,524 -13,340 -37,974 -35,983 -17,206 -13,807 -17,535 -12,180 -13,478 -14,770 -11,975 -13,542 -14,315 -15,586 QLD 19,718 27,720 47,062 38,102 29,709 34,099 49,162 44,936 40,224 32,614 20,179 17,967 17,233 19,012 SA -3,977 -1,240 -221 -252 1,545 -658 -5,210 -3,978 -7,069 -6,192 -4,628 -3,254 -2,869 -4,773 WA 6,576 4,274 5,017 3,012 -1,791 -1,314 -152 3,825 5,101 4,066 6,189 4,726 1,775 -684 TAS -1,508 -1,924 203 2,790 816 -289 -1,494 -2,107 -2,656 -2,590 -3,661 -3,966 -3,669 -2,972 NT -120 -3,129 -1,469 -1,170 -1,152 -969 -699 -875 384 328 1,790 -439 -917 -871 ACT 1,940 2,062 -114 1,330 2,932 1,365 1,316 -426 -486 -656 -3,207 -2,698 -1,213 -839

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3412.0, 15 March 2001

Net interstate migration to Victoria (year ended 30 June 2000)

10000

5000

0

-5000 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

-10000

-15000

Number of persons -20000

-25000

-30000

-35000

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3412.0, 15 March 2001

VICTORIAN POPULATION BULLETIN – Sixth Issue – May 2001 – Department of Infrastructure 5 1088 VPB Apr 2001new copy 21/6/01 10:52 AM Page 3

Overseas Migration

Victoria's share of Australia's net permanent and Net overseas migration to Australia increased significantly long-term overseas migration 2000 (year ended in the year ended 30 June 2000, to 99,056 persons. This represents an increase of 16.42 per cent from the previous 30 June 2000) year’s level of 85,120 persons. 35 Taking the past two years together, Victoria has experienced a slight increase in its share of Australia’s overseas migration: in 30 2000, its share of migration (25 per cent) was approximately 25 equal to its share of total,population (24.9 per cent). Victoria’s share of four major immigrant groups is greater than its 20 share (24.9 per cent) of national population – Federal Republic

% of Yugoslavia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia. 15

10

5

0 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Victoria’s share of Australia’s net permanent and long-term Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0, June quarter 2000 overseas migration 2000

Top 10 source countries of overseas settler arrivals in Year Victoria’s share Australia (ended 30 June) (Persons) (% of Australia) (persons) Victoria – year ended 30 June 2000 1984 14,730 30.0 49,098 4000 1985 20,158 27.3 73,708 3500 1986 26,420 26.3 100,359 3000 1987 32,836 26.1 125,730 2500 1988 37,252 24.9 149,341 2000 1989 39,414 25.0 157,436 1500 1990 34,013 27.3 124,647

Number of persons 1000 1991 23,513 27.2 86,432 500 1992 18,362 26.8 68,580 0 1993 7,965 26.5 30,042 1994 10,698 23.0 46,549 China 1995 19,295 24.1 80,125 Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia

Philippines 1996 25,692 24.7 104,137 Republic of South Africa 1997 21,080 24.2 87,079 United Kingdon 1998 20,801 24.1 86,354 Yugoslavia, Federal Yugoslavia, 1999 21,602 25.4 85,120 Source: ABS Cat. No. 3412.0, 15 March 2001 2000 24,752 25.0 99,056

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0, June quarter 2000 Top 10 source countries of overseas settler arrivals in Australia – year ended 30 June 2000

25000

20000

15000

10000

Number of persons 5000

0 Fiji India China Federal Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Yugoslavia, Republic of South Africa New Zealand United Kingdom

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3412.0, 15 March 2001

VICTORIAN POPULATION BULLETIN – Sixth Issue – May 2001 – Department of Infrastructure 6 1088 VPB Apr 2001new copy 21/6/01 10:52 AM Page 1

OTHER PUBLICATIONS now available:

SUBURBS IN TIME: ANALYSIS AND DATA

TOWNS IN TIME: ANALYSIS AND DATA

VICTORIA IN FUTURE: POPULATION PROJECTIONS RANGE

MELBOURNE IN FACT

REGIONAL VICTORIA IN FACT

FROM DOUGHNUT CITY TO CAFÉ SOCIETY: REPORT AND VIDEO

THE STORY BEHIND THE NUMBERS: A GUIDE TO USING POPULATION STATISTICS

RESEARCH MATTERS NEWSLETTER

LOCAL CONNECTIONS

VICTORIAN POPULATION BULLETIN is an annual publication

For further information please contact the SUBURB RESEARCH UNIT Department of Infrastructure

Level 20, 80 Collins Street Melbourne, Victoria, 3000 Tel: (03) 9655 8814 Fax: (03) 9655 8811 email: [email protected] www.doi.vic.gov.au/research Census 2001 Edition Victorian Population Bulletin Special Issue

Census 2001 Edition

September 2002 Census 2001 Edition

Estimated Resident Population for LGAs in Regional Victoria 1996 to 2001 Regional Victoria, at 30 June 1996 and 2001 The estimated resident population of regional Victoria at 30 June LGA Population Population Change Average 2001 was 1,333,329 people, up from 1,276,148 people at 30 June 30 June 1996 to annual 30 June 1996. This represents growth of 57,181 people at an 2001 1996 2001 growth rate 1996 to average annual rate of 0.9 per cent over this five-year period. 2001 (%) Regional Victoria made up 27.6 per cent of Victoria’s population 1 Alpine (S) 12,956 12,180 776 1.2 in 2001, a slight decrease from 28.0 per cent in 1996 and down 2 Ararat (RC) 11,713 11,965 -252 -0.4 1.0 per cent over the 10 years since 30 June 1991. 3 Ballarat (C) 83,753 79,109 4,644 1.1 4 Bass Coast (S) 25,683 21,543 4,140 3.6 Average annual growth rate (%) 5 Baw Baw (S) 36,397 34,475 1,922 1.1 regional Victoria 1996–2001 6 Buloke (S) 7,310 7,927 -617 -1.6 7 Campaspe (S) 36,363 34,708 1,655 0.9 8 Central Goldfields (S) 13,036 12,914 122 0.2 1.0 or more 0.0 to < 1.0 9 Colac-Otway (S) 21,040 20,710 330 0.3 -1.0 to < 0.0 26 Less than -1.0 10 Corangamite (S) 17,535 17,812 -277 -0.3 40 11 Delatite (S) 20,994 20,080 914 0.9 22 13 46 12 East Gippsland (S) 39,467 39,094 373 0.2 6 20 47 28 7 13 Gannawarra (S) 12,067 12,565 -498 -0.8 24 18 41 42 45 21 33 16 38 1 14 Glenelg (S) 20,312 20,848 -536 -0.5 11 8 30 27 19 25 32 15 Golden Plains (S) 15,164 13,783 1,381 1.9 2 34 3 12 37 29 16 Greater Bendigo (C) 90,502 84,515 5,987 1.4 14 15 44 17 5 31 10 17 Greater Geelong (C) 194,902 183,728 11,174 1.2 39 23 9 35 36 43 18 Greater Shepparton (C) 58,157 54,179 3,978 1.4 4 19 Hepburn (S) 14,460 13,984 476 0.7 20 Hindmarsh (S) 6,523 6,864 -341 -1.0 Source ABS Cat. No. 3218.0, Regional Population Growth 1991 to 2001 21 Horsham (RC) 18,584 17,939 645 0.7 22 Indigo (S) 14,664 14,183 481 0.7 The LGAs with the fastest rates of population growth in regional 23 Latrobe (C) 70,961 71,115 -154 0.0 24 Loddon (S) 8,592 9,098 -506 -1.1 Victoria for the five years ending 30 June 2001 were in the 25 Macedon Ranges (S) 37,830 34,087 3,743 2.1 coastal areas near Melbourne, such as Bass Coast (3.6 per cent 26 Mildura (RC) 49,283 45,811 3,472 1.5 average annual growth), and Surf Coast (3.2 per cent). Strong 27 Mitchell (S) 28,545 25,655 2,890 2.2 growth was also recorded in the exurban LGAs of Mitchell (2.2 28 Moira (S) 26,920 25,856 1,064 0.8 per cent) and Macedon Ranges (2.1 per cent) as well as Golden 29 Moorabool (S) 25,109 22,934 2,175 1.8 Plains (1.9 per cent). 30 Mount Alexander (S) 17,129 16,721 408 0.5 31 Moyne (S) 15,745 16,288 -543 -0.7 For the five years from 1996 to 2001, the LGAs containing the 32 Murrindindi (S) 13,647 12,896 751 1.1 major regional cities in Victoria all experienced strong population 33 Northern Grampians (S) 13,110 13,292 -182 -0.3 growth: Greater Geelong (1.2 per cent average annual growth); 34 Pyrenees (S) 6,688 6,978 -290 -0.8 Ballarat (1.1 per cent); Greater Bendigo (1.4 per cent); Greater 35 Queenscliffe (B) 3,273 3,453 -180 -1.1 Shepparton (1.4 per cent); Mildura (1.5 per cent); Wodonga 36 South Gippsland (S) 26,230 25,488 742 0.6 (1.5 per cent); and Warrnambool (1.6 per cent). The only 37 Southern Grampians (S) 17,153 17,548 -395 -0.5 38 Strathbogie (S) 9,653 9,285 368 0.8 exception was Latrobe (containing , Moe and ), 39 Surf Coast (S) 20,920 17,845 3,075 3.2 which experienced marginal population loss in this period. 40 Swan Hill (RC) 21,404 20,868 536 0.5 41 Towong (S) 6,264 6,489 -225 -0.7 Top five LGAs in regional Victoria 42 Wangaratta (RC) 26,596 26,039 557 0.4 (average annual growth rate 1996-2001)

43 Warrnambool (C) 29,616 27,372 2,244 1.6 LGA Rate per cent 44 Wellington (S) 41,376 41,545 -169 -0.1 45 West Wimmera (S) 4,860 5,187 -327 -1.3 1 Bass Coast (S) 3.6 46 Wodonga (RC) 32,482 30,200 2,282 1.5 2 Surf Coast (S) 3.2 47 Yarriambiack (S) 8,262 8,922 -660 -1.5 3 Mitchell (S) 2.2 Unincorporated Victoria 99 71 28 6.9 4 Macedon Ranges (S) 2.1 Total 1,333,329 1,276,148 57,181 0.9 5 Golden Plains (S) 1.9

Source ABS Cat No. 3218.0, Regional Population Growth 1991 to 2001 Source ABS Cat. No. 3218.0, Regional Population Growth 1991 to 2001 Census 2001 Edition

Introduction Highlights of population change in Victoria The Victorian Population Bulletin in the past five years provides a valuable snapshot of information on population change and • Victoria’s Estimated Resident Population (ERP) at 30 June 2001 was the basic drivers behind that change, 4,822,663 people. as recorded by recent ABS publications. • Victoria’s population of 4,822,663 people grew by 1.1 per cent a year (or 262,508 It compares growth rates between the people) during the five years from 1996 to 2001. This compares to growth of States and between the 78 local 0.6 per cent a year (139,782 people) for the previous five years (1991 to 1996). government areas (LGAs) of Victoria. • The ERP of Australia reached 19,485,278 people at 30 June 2001, growing by 1.3 per cent a year (or 1,174,564 people) for the five years from 1996 to 2001.

• For the five years ending 30 June 2001, New South Wales grew by 1.3 per cent a year (404,576 people in total), while Queensland remained the fastest growing State Special issue in Australia, at 1.7 per cent a year (296,431 people in total) but the Northern Territory grew at an even faster rate of 1.9 per cent a year, or 18,176 people for The population estimates contained the five years ending 30 June 2001. in this issue of the Victorian Population Bulletin are the first small area population estimates to Melbourne be based on the data recorded for • The average annual population growth rate of the Melbourne Statistical Division the 2001 Census. (MSD)* was 1.2 per cent, totalling 205,327 people, for the five years ending The June 2001 population estimates 30 June 2001. The population at 30 June 2001 was 3,489,334 people, published in the March 2002 issue of compared to 3,284,007 people in 1996. the Victorian Population Bulletin are now out of date, being superseded • This compares with 0.8 per cent annual growth for the MSD for the previous by the figures in this issue. five-year period (1991 to 1996).

• The fastest growing LGAs were either in the centre of Melbourne (City of Melbourne) or on the fringes of the MSD (Wyndham, Melton, Hume, Casey and Mornington Peninsula).

• The City of Greater Dandenong in the south-east of the MSD was the only LGA Further information in Melbourne to decline in population between 1996 and 2001. Further details on all of the issues covered in this bulletin are available on the Research and Analysis Branch Regional Victoria web site (see below). • In regional Victoria, the average annual population growth rate was 0.9 per cent for the five years ending 30 June 2001. The population grew by 57,181 people from 1,276,148 people in 1996 to 1,333,329 people in 2001.

Research and • This compares with the previous five-year period (1991 to 1996) when the population Analysis Branch of regional Victoria grew significantly more slowly, at a rate of 0.2 per cent a year, for a total of just 11,917 persons.

Department of Infrastructure • Between 1996 and 2001, the fastest growing LGAs in regional Victoria were in the Level 20, 80 Collins Street areas close to and between the major cities of Melbourne, Ballarat and Geelong. Melbourne Victoria 3000 They were either on the coast (Surf Coast and Bass Coast) or in the exurban areas Tel. (03) 9655 8814 around the major cities (Golden Plains, Macedon Ranges and Mitchell). Fax (03) 9655 8811 • Between 1996 and 2001 the fastest declining LGAs in regional Victoria were all in the Email. [email protected] north-west of the State (Loddon, Yarriambiack, West Wimmera and Buloke). Web. www.doi.vic.gov.au/research

* For convenience, in this publication, we have included part B of Yarra Ranges in the MSD. Australia

Annual growth rate (%) Annual growth rate (%) Australia 1996–2001 Australia 1991–96

1.5 or more 1.5 or more 1.0 to < 1.5 1.0 to < 1.5 0.0 to < 1.0 0.0 to < 1.0 decline decline

Source ABS Cat. No. 3218.0, Regional Population Growth 1991 to 2001

The national picture – population change Australia – Growth of capital city 1996–2001 statistical divisions in Australia (1996–2001) For the five years ending 30 June 2001, the ERP of Australia grew at an average annual rate of 1.3 per cent. The population growth over this five-year period totalled 1,174,564 Statistical Average annual Change in Division (SD) growth rate (%) number of people, bringing the national population to 19,485,278 people at 30 June 2001. persons Victoria’s average annual rate of population growth for the five years ending 30 June Melbourne 1.2 205,327 2001 was 1.1 per cent representing growth of 262,508 people for this period, and 1.4 273,586 bringing Victoria’s total ERP to 4,822,663 people. 1.7 133,374 New South Wales (404,576 people at 1.3 per cent a year) and Queensland (296,431 0.4 32,110 Perth 1.7 101,956 people at 1.7 per cent) both grew by more people and at faster rates than Victoria. Greater 0.5 2,098 The Northern Territory (1.9 per cent) and Western Australia (1.5 per cent) also had faster Darwin 2.1 12,362 average annual growth rates than Victoria, for the five years ending 30 June 2001. 0.3 13,390 Tasmania was the only State or Territory to decline in the five years from 1996 to 2001, Source ABS Cat. No. 3218.0, Regional Population losing 1,512 people at an average annual rate of -0.1 per cent a year. Growth 1991 to 2001

Estimated resident population for Australian States and Territories, 30 June 1991, 1996 and 2001

30 June 30 June 30 June Total growth Total growth Average annual Average annual 2001 ERP 1996 ERP 1991 ERP 1996-2001 1991-1996 growth rate (%) growth rate (%) 1996–2001 1991–1996

Victoria 4,822,663 4,560,155 4,420,373 262,508 139,782 1.1 0.6 NSW 6,609,304 6,204,728 5,898,731 404,576 305,997 1.3 1.0 QLD 3,635,121 3,338,690 2,960,951 296,431 377,739 1.7 2.4 SA 1,514,854 1,474,253 1,446,299 40,601 27,954 0.5 0.4 WA 1,906,114 1,765,256 1,636,067 140,858 129,189 1.5 1.5 TAS 472,931 474,443 466,802 -1,512 7,641 -0.1 0.3 NT 200,019 181,843 165,493 18,176 16,350 1.9 1.9 ACT 321,680 308,251 289,320 13,429 18,931 0.9 1.3 Australia* 19,485,278 18,310,714 17,284,036 1,174,564 1,026,678 1.3 1.2

Source ABS Cat. No. 3218.0, Regional Population Growth 1991 to 2001 * Note: Australian totals include other Territories. Regional Victoria

Regional Victoria 1991 to 1996 Estimated Resident Population for LGAs in comparisons Regional Victoria, at 30 June 1991 and 1996

Compared with 1991–96, Regional Victoria’s growth more than LGA Population Population Change Average quadrupled. Absolute population growth was 57,000 between 30 June 30 June 1991 to annual 1996 1991 1996 growth rate 1996 and 2001 compared with 12,000 from 1991 to 1996, 1991 to while average annual growth was 0.9 per cent compared 1996 (%) with 0.2 per cent. 1 Alpine (S) 12,180 12,350 -170 -0.3 2 Ararat (RC) 11,965 12,843 -878 -1.4 Average annual growth rate (%) 3 Ballarat (C) 79,109 79,117 -8 0.0 regional Victoria 1991–96 4 Bass Coast (S) 21,543 20,150 1,393 1.3 1.0 or more 5 Baw Baw (S) 34,475 33,788 687 0.4 0.0 to < 1.0 6 Buloke (S) 7,927 8,836 -909 -2.1 -1.0 to < 0.0 7 Campaspe (S) 34,708 33,845 863 0.5 26 Less than -1.0 40 8 Central Goldfields (S) 12,914 13,092 -178 -0.3 9 Colac-Otway (S) 20,710 21,382 -672 -0.6 22 13 46 6 20 47 28 10 Corangamite (S) 17,812 18,723 -911 -1.0 7 24 18 41 42 11 Delatite (S) 20,080 19,716 364 0.4 45 21 33 16 38 1 11 12 East Gippsland (S) 39,094 37,319 1,775 0.9 8 30 27 19 25 32 2 34 3 12 13 Gannawarra (S) 12,565 13,035 -470 -0.7 37 29 14 44 14 Glenelg (S) 20,848 22,039 -1,191 -1.1 15 17 5 31 10 39 23 15 Golden Plains (S) 13,783 12,724 1,059 1.6 9 35 36 43 16 Greater Bendigo (C) 84,515 81,286 3,229 0.8 4 17 Greater Geelong (C) 183,728 181,277 2,451 0.3 18 Greater Source ABS Cat. No. 3218.0, Regional Population Growth 1991 to 2001 Shepparton (C) 54,179 52,804 1,375 0.5 Between 1996 and 2001, the greatest growth occurred in 19 Hepburn (S) 13,984 13,559 425 0.6 Greater Geelong (+11,000), Greater Bendigo (+6,000), 20 Hindmarsh (S) 6,864 7,324 -460 -1.3 21 Horsham (RC) 17,939 17,800 139 0.2 Ballarat (+4,600) and Bass Coast (+4,100). However, growth 22 Indigo (S) 14,183 13,785 398 0.6 between 1991 and 1996 was significantly less in Geelong 23 Latrobe (C) 71,115 75,254 -4,139 -1.1 (+2,500 people) and Ballarat recorded a small loss (-8 people). 24 Loddon (S) 9,098 9,490 -392 -0.8 25 Macedon Ranges (S) 34,087 31,349 2,738 1.7 Between 1996 and 2001, municipalities along the Murray and 26 Mildura (RC) 45,811 44,589 1,222 0.5 Goulburn valleys mostly recorded strong annual growth: 27 Mitchell (S) 25,655 25,176 479 0.4 Mildura (1.5 per cent), Wodonga (1.5 per cent), Shepparton 28 Moira (S) 25,856 25,127 729 0.6 (1.4 per cent), Campaspe, (0.9 per cent) Moira (0.8 per cent) 29 Moorabool (S) 22,934 20,796 2,138 2.0 30 Mount Alexander (S) 16,721 16,511 210 0.3 and Swan Hill (0.5 per cent). All of these except Wodonga 31 Moyne (S) 16,288 16,600 -312 -0.4 showed a faster rate of population growth than the preceding 32 Murrindindi (S) 12,896 12,495 401 0.6 five-year period, Swan Hill turning around from losing 33 Northern population at an annual rate of -0.6 per cent. Grampians (S) 13,292 13,845 -553 -0.8 34 Pyrenees (S) 6,978 7,150 -172 -0.5 There were seven municipalities that lost population between 35 Queenscliffe (B) 3,453 3,281 172 1.0 1991 and 1996, but gained population between 1996 and 36 South Gippsland (S) 25,488 25,841 -353 -0.3 2001: South Gippsland, Alpine, Strathbogie, Central Goldfields, 37 Southern Grampians (S) 17,548 18,604 -1,056 -1.2 Colac-Otway, Swan Hill and Ballarat. 38 Strathbogie (S) 9,285 9,298 -13 0.0 39 Surf Coast (S) 17,845 15,560 2,285 2.8 Top five LGAs in regional Victoria 40 Swan Hill (RC) 20,868 21,484 -616 -0.6 (average annual growth rate 1991–96) 41 Towong (S) 6,489 6,849 -360 -1.1 42 Wangaratta (RC) 26,039 25,973 66 0.1 LGA Rate per cent 43 Warrnambool (C) 27,372 26,283 1,089 0.8 44 Wellington (S) 41,545 42,845 -1,300 -0.6 1 Surf Coast (S) 2.8 45 West Wimmera (S) 5,187 5,585 -398 -1.5 2 Moorabool (S) 2.0 46 Wodonga (RC) 30,200 27,819 2,381 1.7 3 Macedon Ranges (S) 1.7 47 Yarriambiack (S) 8,922 9,558 -636 -1.4 4 Wodonga (RC) 1.7 Unincorporated Victoria 71 75 -4 -1.1 5 Golden Plains (S) 1.6 Total 1,276,148 1,264,231 11,917 0.2

Source ABS Cat. No. 3218.0, Regional Population Growth 1991 to 2001 Source ABS Cat No. 3218.0, Regional Population Growth 1991 to 2001 Census 2001 Edition

Estimated Resident Population for LGAs in Melbourne 1996 to 2001 Melbourne, at 30 June 1996 and 2001 The ERP of the 31 LGAs of Melbourne at June 30 2001 was

LGA Population Population Change Average 3,489,334, up from 3,284,007 people at 30 June 1996. 30 June 30 June 1996 to annual This represents growth of 205,327 people since 1996, at an 2001 1996 2001 growth rate average annual rate of 1.2 per cent. Melbourne made up 1996 to 2001 (%) 72.4 per cent of Victoria’s population in 2001, a slight increase 1 Banyule (C) 119,146 117,876 1,270 0.2 from 72.0 per cent in 1996 and up 1.0 per cent over the 2 Bayside (C) 89,296 86,365 2,931 0.7 10 years since 30 June 1991. 3 Boroondara (C) 158,288 153,860 4,428 0.6 The highest rate of population growth in Melbourne for the five years 4 Brimbank (C) 169,839 155,584 14,255 1.8 ending 30 June 2001 was in the inner city in the City of Melbourne 5 Cardinia (S) 47,252 42,716 4,536 2.0 6 Casey (C) 181,990 148,957 33,033 4.1 (5.6 per cent average annual growth) and the outer suburban LGAs 7 Darebin (C) 128,402 127,430 972 0.2 of Melton (5.5 per cent), Casey (4.1 per cent), Wyndham (2.8 per 8 Frankston (C) 114,506 109,190 5,316 1.0 cent), Mornington Peninsula (2.4 per cent) and Hume (2.4 per cent). 9 Glen Eira (C) 124,221 120,271 3,950 0.6 10 Greater Average annual growth rate (per cent) Dandenong (C) 128,509 131,796 -3,287 -0.5 Melbourne 1996–2001 11 Hobsons Bay (C) 83,872 77,764 6,108 1.5 12 Hume (C) 136,261 120,819 15,442 2.4

13 Kingston (C) 134,560 129,655 4,905 0.7 28 12 24 14 Knox (C) 147,854 136,825 11,029 1.6 22 19 21 15 Manningham (C) 113,894 110,506 3,388 0.6 7 1 31 4 15 16 3 27 17 16 Maribyrnong (C) 61,664 61,329 335 0.1 11 26 29 14 17 Maroondah (C) 100,628 95,879 4,749 1.0 18 25 9 20 30 13 18 Melbourne (C) 52,117 39,716 12,401 5.6 2 10 6 5 19 Melton (S) 53,194 40,612 12,582 5.5 8 2.0 or more 20 Monash (C) 163,090 160,677 2,413 0.3 1.0 to < 2.0 0.0 to < 1.0 21 Moonee Valley (C) 111,050 110,004 1,046 0.2 23 decline 22 Moreland (C) 136,894 136,733 161 0.0 23 Mornington Peninsula (S) 132,716 117,800 14,916 2.4 Source ABS Cat. No. 3218.0, Regional Population Growth 1991 to 2001 24 Nillumbik (S) 60,801 57,219 3,582 1.2 25 Port Phillip (C) 81,930 76,089 5,841 1.5 By far the largest population growth in this period was in the 26 Stonnington (C) 91,243 88,562 2,681 0.6 LGA of Casey, which grew by 33,000 people from 1996 to 2001, 27 Whitehorse (C) 147,394 143,013 4,381 0.6 more than double the growth of the next largest growing LGAs, 28 Whittlesea (C) 118,292 106,212 12,080 2.2 which were Hume (15,500 people), Mornington Peninsula 29 Wyndham (C) 87,641 76,239 11,402 2.8 (15,000) and Brimbank (14,500). 30 Yarra (C) 69,564 67,136 2,428 0.7 The only LGA in Melbourne to have declined in population in 31 Yarra Ranges (S) 143,226 137,173 6,053 0.9 the five-year period from 1996 to 2001 was the City of Greater Total 3,489,334 3,284,007 205,327 1.2 Dandenong, which declined by 3,500 persons, at an average Source ABS Cat No. 3218.0, Regional Population Growth 1991 to 2001 annual rate of -0.5 per cent.

Top five LGAs in Melbourne (average annual growth rate 1996–2001)

LGA Rate per cent

1 Melbourne (C) 5.6 2 Melton (S) 5.5 3 Casey (C) 4.1 4 Wyndham (C) 2.8 5 Hume (C) 2.4

Source ABS Cat No. 3218.0, Regional Population Growth 1991 to 2001 Melbourne

Melbourne 1991 to 1996 Estimated Resident Population for LGAs in comparisons Melbourne, at 30 June 1991 and 1996

Between 1996 and 2001, Melbourne grew by 205,000 people LGA Population Population Change Average (annual growth rate of 1.2 per cent) compared with 128,000 30 June 30 June 1991 to annual (0.8 per cent) from 1991 to 1996. Only one municipality 1996 1991 1996 growth rate 1991 to (Greater Dandenong) lost population between 1996 and 2001 1996 (%) compared with eight between 1991 and 1996. 1 Banyule (C) 117,876 119,624 -1,748 -0.3 Between 1996 and 2001, the three inner municipalities 2 Bayside (C) 86,365 85,696 669 0.2 (Melbourne, Port Phillip and Yarra grew by more than 20,500 3 Boroondara (C) 153,860 150,351 3,509 0.5 people (2.2 per cent average annual growth rate), compared with 4 Brimbank (C) 155,584 144,277 11,307 1.5 5 Cardinia (S) 42,716 38,704 4,012 2.0 13,000 (1.5 per cent) from 1991 to 1996. 6 Casey (C) 148,957 117,001 31,956 4.9 7 Darebin (C) 127,430 128,985 -1,555 -0.2 Average annual growth rate (per cent) 8 Frankston (C) 109,190 104,533 4,657 0.9 Melbourne 1991–96 9 Glen Eira (C) 120,271 117,174 3,097 0.5 10 Greater Dandenong (C) 131,796 133,666 -1,870 -0.3 28 12 11 Hobsons Bay (C) 77,764 74,412 3,352 0.9 24 22 12 Hume (C) 120,819 106,570 14,249 2.5 19 21 7 1 31 4 15 13 Kingston (C) 129,655 126,731 2,924 0.5 16 3 27 17 11 26 14 Knox (C) 136,825 130,378 6,447 1.0 29 14 18 25 9 20 13 15 Manningham (C) 110,506 111,526 -1,020 -0.2 30 10 2 16 Maribyrnong (C) 61,329 62,413 -1,084 -0.3 6 5 8 2.0 or more 17 Maroondah (C) 95,879 92,437 3,442 0.7 1.0 to < 2.0 18 Melbourne (C) 39,716 34,659 5,057 2.8 23 0.0 to < 1.0 decline 19 Melton (S) 40,612 36,170 4,442 2.3 20 Monash (C) 160,677 166,390 -5,713 -0.7 21 Moonee Valley (C) 110,004 108,747 1,257 0.2 22 Moreland (C) 136,733 138,489 -1,756 -0.3 Source ABS Cat. No. 3218.0, Regional Population Growth 1991 to 2001 23 Mornington Seven municipalities showed significant turnarounds in population Peninsula (S) 117,800 110,348 7,452 1.3 change. Monash had an annual growth rate of 0.3 per cent in 24 Nillumbik (S) 57,219 53,071 4,148 1.5 25 Port Phillip (C) 76,089 71,296 4,793 1.3 1996–2001 compared to a loss of 0.7 per cent per year in 26 Stonnington (C) 88,562 86,060 2,502 0.6 1991–96. Others to turn around their population growth were 27 Whitehorse (C) 143,013 145,435 -2,422 -0.3 Whitehorse, Manningham, Banyule, Darebin, Moreland and 28 Whittlesea (C) 106,212 97,361 8,851 1.8 Maribyrnong. 29 Wyndham (C) 76,239 63,415 12,824 3.8 On Melbourne’s fringes there is a mixed picture. Annual growth 30 Yarra (C) 67,136 63,975 3,161 1.0 31 Yarra Ranges (S) 137,173 136,248 925 0.1 rates declined in Casey, Hume and Wyndham, but grew in Total 3,284,007 3,156,142 127,865 0.8 Melton, Mornington Peninsula and Whittlesea and remained constant in Cardinia. Source ABS Cat. No. 3218.0, Regional Population Growth 1991 to 2001

Top five LGAs in Melbourne (average annual growth rate 1991–96)

LGA Rate per cent

1 Casey (C) 4.9 2 Wyndham (C) 3.8 3 Melbourne (C) 2.8 4 Hume (C) 2.5 5 Melton (S) 2.3

Source ABS Cat. No. 3218.0, Regional Population Growth 1991 to 2001 Census 2001 Edition

Major regional centres in Victoria - Statistical Districts

The period from 1991 to 1996 marked a deep recession in population growth throughout the first and second half of the Victoria, which is reflected in the low overall population growth last decade of the twentieth century. rate for regional Victoria of 0.2 per cent, compared to 0.9 per Between 1996 and 2001, most regional centres achieved strong cent from 1996 to 2001. Bendigo, Mildura, Shepparton and population growth: Mildura (1.8 per cent), Shepparton (1.7 per Warrnambool all grew steadily between 1991 and 1996, but cent), Warrnambool (1.6 per cent) and Bendigo (1.4 per cent) all between 1996 and 2001 this growth accelerated to at least had annual rates of population growth well above the Victoria double that of the previous five years. average (1.1 per cent). Geelong (1.0 per cent), Ballarat (1.1 per Geelong and Ballarat’s populations remained stable from 1991 cent) and -Wodonga’s (1.1 per cent) growth rates were at to 1996 and the cities that make up the Latrobe Valley area lost or close to the State average, and the Latrobe Valley’s population at an average annual rate of -1.0 per cent during this population was almost stable, declining by only around 200 period. Albury-Wodonga was the only area to have steady people over this period.

Estimated Resident Population for Victorian Statistical Districts, 30 June 1991, 1996 and 2001

30 June 30 June 30 June Total growth Total growth Average annual Average annual 2001 ERP 1996 ERP 1991 ERP 1996-2001 1991-1996 growth rate (%) growth rate (%) 1996-2001 1991-1996

Albury–Wodonga 97,883 92,668 87,759 5,215 4,909 1.1 1.1 Ballarat 83,753 79,109 79,117 4,644 -8 1.1 0.0 Bendigo 79,682 74,192 72,083 5,490 2,109 1.4 0.6 Geelong 160,058 152,245 151,907 7,813 338 1.0 0.0 Latrobe Valley 75,275 75,467 79,450 -192 -3,983 -0.1 -1.0 Mildura 45,018 41,130 39,187 3,888 1,943 1.8 1.0 Shepparton 44,850 41,139 40,129 3,711 1,010 1.7 0.5 Warrnambool 29,616 27,372 26,283 2,244 1,089 1.6 0.8 Regional Victoria 1,333,329 1,276,148 1,264,231 57,181 11,917 0.9 0.2

Source ABS Cat. No. 3218.0, Regional Population Growth 1991 to 2001

Melbourne and regional Victoria – historical comparisons 1971 to 2001

Average annual population growth at five-year intervals, 1971–2001

Melbourne Regional Victoria The growth gap between Melbourne and regional Victoria 1.6 narrowed in the late 1990s. 1.4 1.2 Melbourne's higher growth rate is attributable to higher 1.0 overseas migration and to interstate migration gains. 0.8 The recovery of the State economy, together with the 0.6 development of advanced manufacturing and services created 0.4 Average new wealth and employment opportunities and attracted more annual 0.2 growth (%) 0.0 people to Melbourne. 1971-76 1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-2001 Regional Victoria's higher growth in the past five years reflects its Source ABS Cat. No. 3218.0, Regional Population Growth 1991 to 2001 recovery from the severe restructuring of the early 1990s which Population growth rates of Melbourne and regional Victoria resulted in employment losses in manufacturing, utilities and have varied over time. Regional Victoria outgrew Melbourne public services. Growth of employment in more intensive from the mid-1970s to the late 1980s, but Melbourne agricultures, in value-adding manufacturing and in service weathered the early 1990s recession better and came out employment has attracted new residents and helped to retain of it earlier. established populations.