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The COVID-19 Regional Shift

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The COVID-19 Regional Shift Regional Australia Report The COVID-19 regional shift November 2020 Author: Nerida Conisbee, Chief Economist Data: Karen Dellow, Analyst COVID-19 has resulted in shifts across many parts of the economy including preferences and demand for housing. Throughout regional Australia, it appears population growth is strengthening more quickly than it otherwise would have in 2020. While these population shifts can't be confirmed until the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases its data, we can see parts of regional Australia increasing in popularity on realestate.com.au. Search activity for regional Australia spiked earlier this year, which has since resulted in house price growth. There are two distinct trends driving up demand for regional property; lifestyle and jobs. As such, there are some areas experiencing far stronger interest than others. Remote working as a result of COVID-19 is making a lifestyle change possible for some, while strength in parts of the economy that are more COVID-19 resistant than others, in particular mining, is also sending people to regional communities. The pandemic has also accelerated interest in some regional areas that were already very popular prior to COVID-19. Long-term population growth: Regional versus Capital City (2001 - 2019) Regional population shifts Population growth has generally been focused in capital cities, primarily because employment and job opportunities have been located in city centres. While long term population growth, and hence housing demand, has been capital city centric, over the past five years, there has been a gradual shift to some parts of regional Australia. Specifically, to areas located on the fringe of capital cities. It’s not surprising that the swing to fringe locations has occurred most prominently in states with our most expensive capital cities; Victoria, New South Wales, Western Australia and Queensland. The city of Geelong was the beneficiary of the strongest regional shift prior to COVID-19. Geelong’s population increased by 14% over the past five years, making it a far bigger city than Hobart and Darwin. At an SA4 level, it has been the tenth fastest growing area in the country with only parts of Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney seeing bigger percentage increases. Capital City Regional Source: ABS Biggest increase in population by regional SA4 (2014-2019) SA4 Areas 2014 2019 5 Year Change While Geelong has done well, other regional Victorian areas within commuting Geelong 272,154 310,128 14.0% distance to Melbourne have also seen strong population growth, in particular, Gold Coast 564,952 636,117 12.6% Bendigo, Ballarat and Latrobe-Gippsland. Sunshine Coast 341,640 384,281 12.5% Bendigo 150,101 162,918 8.5% For Queensland, the continued growth on the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast has Ballarat 155,108 167,552 8.0% meant that these areas have increasingly become self-sufficient economies, less Mandurah 96,632 103,467 7.1% reliant on jobs in Brisbane. Latrobe - Gippsland 268,583 286,952 6.8% Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven 146,585 156,601 6.8% For New South Wales, the regions abutting Greater Sydney, Southern Highlands and Hunter Valley exc Newcastle 262,919 280,588 6.7% Shoalhaven, Hunter Valley (excluding Newcastle) and Illawarra have all experienced Illawarra 296,633 314,618 6.1% strong growth. In Western Australia, Mandurah, the coastal regional area just outside the southern Perth boundary, has seen population growth just over 7%. These shifts to regional Biggest decline in population by regional SA4 (2014-2019) areas at the edge of capital cities have historically been driven by affordability and the ability to buy a better home in a nicer suburb but the longer commute to the city for work has been an issue. SA4 Areas 2014 2019 5 Year Change Western Australia - Outback (South) 126,593 116,642 -7.9% Regional areas have also benefited from additional government spending. Geelong, Western Australia - Outback (North) 102,015 97,963 -4.0% for example, benefited from a number of major initiatives including the Geelong Queensland - Outback 85,254 82,534 -3.2% City Deal, in addition to $2 billion allocated in the 2019 Federal Budget for a fast rail Northern Territory - Outback 101,725 98,674 -3.0% between Melbourne and Sydney, and first home buyer incentives that favoured South Australia - Outback 86,785 84,407 -2.7% regional Victoria. Mackay - Isaac - Whitsunday 176,064 173,006 -1.7% Western Australia - Wheat Belt 138,566 136,928 -1.2% For the Gold Coast, the construction of the light rail and continued improvements Far West NSW and Orana 117,258 116,962 -0.3% to the Pacific Motorway are likely to be supporting jobs and population growth. Central Queensland 227,014 226,811 -0.1% Source: ABS Strongest price growth SA4s (2014-2019) Source: realestate.com.au While many regional areas have experienced strong population growth, the areas that In areas with high levels of population growth, it is not surprising that we have seen have declined the most tend to be very isolated. This is likely driven by changes to job strong increases in demand and price growth over the corresponding period. creation in these areas. In Western Australia’s Wheatbelt, for example, the automation Tasmania has been an exception, despite not having particularly strong population of the agricultural industry and the increasing scale of farming operations have partly growth, Tasmania’s house prices grew significantly. Price growth was driven driven declines in employment. Surprisingly, however, it has been one of the strongest primarily by a property investment boom, as well as rising wealth from strong regional performers in terms of house price growth since COVID-19. improvements to the Tasmanian economy. Change in views per listing (Mar - Sept 2020) COVID-19 has led to a significant change in the way that property seekers search on realestate.com.au and it was one of the earliest indicators that there was a shift in preference to regional Australia. While search activity dropped dramatically in the early weeks of the pandemic, once the third stimulus package was announced, particularly JobKeeper, we started to see buyer activity return nationally. Interestingly, the change in views per listing was higher in regional Australia than it was in capital cities. Anecdotally, discussions with agents in many regional areas around this time also backed this up. Buyer interest was far stronger than expected. The standout performer in terms of property seeker activity on realestate.com.au has been Canberra where search activity has more than doubled, likely driven by very strong growth in government employment. Beyond this, in every state, regional search has grown stronger than capital city search. The most striking differential has occurred in locked down Victoria where search has barely moved in Melbourne while it jumped 60% in regional Victoria. The trends emerging as a result of COVID-19 COVID-19 sparked two distinct trends in regional Australia. The first is the resurgence of the mining sector and the second is the change to the way many are working. The strength in mining is being driven primarily by the stimulus that the Chinese Government has deployed to get their economy moving again, as well as the impact of COVID-19 on other mineral producing countries. Brazil is the second highest iron ore producer and is also the second most COVID-19 impacted country, which has substantially reduced the nation’s production. As a result, iron ore prices have recently hit record highs and Australia is currently exporting record levels of iron ore. Other minerals are also seeing strong demand. Gold, often seen as the ultimate hedge against recession, has hit various price records since mid-March, while copper is doing well off the back of China using less copper scrap. Any regions that have economic growth closely tied to these strong performing minerals are seeing a flow on to house price growth. As an aside, one mineral that isn’t doing so well is coal and any regional areas closely tied to coal are not experiencing the same resurgence in their economies. The resurgence of mining has created interesting results across a range of metrics that we track on realestate.com.au. Port Hedland in Western Australia now achieves the highest enquiry from first home buyers in regional Western Australia and is the second most enquired area from investors. Townsville has seen some of the strongest price growth since COVID-19 in Queensland, likely driven in part at least, by better performance of nearby mines. Orange, where surrounding expansions of several mines has created many new jobs, continues to appear as one of the most enquired areas from first home buyers and investors. While mining has created positivity in many regional areas, a more surprising shift has been movement, which appears to be coming from people working differently and wanting more space due to COVID-19 restrictions. As outlined earlier, there has been a shift to regional areas over recent years as a result of affordability. Moving to cities like Wollongong and Geelong means more expensive housing than in many other regional parts of Australia, but they are within convenient commuting distance to many capital cities so have been popular. The main difference since COVID-19 is that many of the regional areas seeing jumps in popularity and pricing are not within an easy commute. The most dramatic change has been seen in Bangalow in northern NSW. This suburb is now in the top 10 nationally in terms of views per listing. It is the first time a regional town has appeared in this list since we started tracking views per listing five years ago. More broadly, Richmond-Tweed is one of the strongest performing regional areas nationally in terms of activity on realestate.com.au and that has translated into price growth.
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