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University Microfilms International 300 N OBSERVATIONS ON THE THEORY AND REALITY OF MANAGERIAL USE OF COMPUTER- BASED DECISION SUPPORT (MIS, DSS). Item Type text; Thesis-Reproduction (electronic) Authors Frankel, Seth Elijah. Publisher The University of Arizona. Rights Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author. Download date 03/10/2021 19:25:24 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/10150/275336 INFORMATION TO USERS This reproduction was made from a copy of a document sent to us for microfilming. While the most advanced technology has been used to photograph and reproduce this document, the quality of the reproduction is heavily dependent upon the quality of the material submitted. The following explanation of techniques is provided to help clarify markings or notations which may appear on this reproduction. 1.The sign or "target" for pages apparently lacking from the document photographed is "Missing Page(s)". If it was possible to obtain the missing page(s) or section, they are spliced into the film along with adjacent pages. This may have necessitated cutting through an image and duplicating adjacent pages to assure complete continuity. 2. When an image on the film is obliterated with a round black mark, it is an indication of either blurred copy because of movement during exposure, duplicate copy, or copyrighted materials that should not have been filmed. For blurred pages, a good image of the page can be found in the adjacent frame. If copyrighted materials were deleted, a target note will appear listing the pages in the adjacent frame. 3. 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Zeeb Road Ann Arbor, Ml 48106 1325822 Frankel, Seth Elijah OBSERVATIONS ON THE THEORY AND REALITY OF MANAGERIAL USE OF COMPUTER-BASED DECISION SUPPORT The University of Arizona M.S. 1985 University Microfilms International 300 N. Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, Ml 48106 OBSERVATIONS ON THE THEORY AND REALITY OF MANAGERIAL USE OF COMPUTER-BASED DECISION SUPPORT by Seth Elijah Frankel A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of the DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT AND POLICY In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE In the Graduate College THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA 19 8 5 STATEMENT BY AUTHOR This thesis has been submitted in partial fulfillment of requirements for an advanced degree at The University of Arizona and is deposited in the University Library to be made available to borrowers under rules of the Library. Brief quotations from this thesis are allowable without special permission, provided that accurate acknowledgement of source is made. Requests for permission for extended quotation from or reproduction of this manuscript in whole or in part may be granted by the head of the major department or the Dean of the Graduate College when in his or her judgement the proposed use of the material is in the interests of scholarship. In all other instances, however, permission must be obtained from the author. SIGNED APPROVAL BY THESIS DIRECTOR This thesis has been approved on the date shown below: /-7 Gerfrit Wolf I Date Professor of Management WITH GRATITUDE TO "LEFTY" ALVIN JACKSON, WHO TAUGHT ME TO BELIEVE, MARTIN R. NORREGAARD, WHO TAUGHT ME TO QUESTION, AND SYLVIA, FOR WHOM I NEVER MAKE IT EASY. THIS IS FOR MIKE TSCHILAR, JAN SPRAGUE, LAURA WEBSTER, CECI ALFARO, AND ALL THE OTHERS WHO COULDN'T BE HERE. AND TO HARRY GRIMNITZ, WHEREVER YOU ARE. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I owe a special debt to the people who made this project a thing of value: Diane Vidal Simrin, who provided the finest counselling a graduate student has ever had; Gerrit Wolf, who helped me fight City Hall; Joan Storm and Jerry Witt, who kept the writing time confined to this millenium by allowing me to camp out in front of their IBM PC; and all the people I talked with who had something worthwhile to say (and who went ahead and said it, regardless). iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT viii 1. INTRODUCTION 1 2. DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS 10 The Call for Computer Based Decision Support....10 The DSS Philosophy 15 The Simple Basis of DSS Theory 18 Design Criteria for a Decision Support System 20 DSS or MIS? 27 Flaws in the DSS Framework 34 More Promises for DSS 40 Where Are These Systems? 43 3. IN SEARCH OF DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS 45 Talking With Tucson Salespeople 46 A Survey of Specialists 52 Specifics of the Survey 53 Questions and Answers 54 4. EXPERT REBUTTAL OF DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS 60 William King: On Misguided Management Innovations 60 Thomas Naylor: On the Non-Viability of DSS 63 5. WHY MANAGERS RESIST COMPUTER-BASED DECISION SUPPORT: MIXING REALITY WITH THEORY 69 Why Managers Are Expected to Adopt Computer Aid 69 Decision-Making in Organizations 72 Can the Manager Define His Information Needs? 73 Is MORE Information BETTER? 75 v TABLE OF CONTENTS--Continued Page How Managers Really Operate 82 According to Keen & Wagner 82 According to Henry Mintzberg 84 According to Karl Weick 88 Overload & Political Considerations 91 Why Filtration and "The Information Middleman" Are Politically Unfeasible 99 The Nature of Organisational Decision-Making...101 What ARE Decisions in Organizations? 101 Are "DSS-Type" Decisions REALLY Made At The Top? 103 Influences on the Managerial Decision-Maker 104 Beliefs and Intuitions 104 ON THE COMPUTER AND HUMAN BEHAVIOR 106 Totems of the Computer Age 106 The False Reliability of Computers 106 The Computer As Totem 110 The Size Factor: More Complex Seems More Dependable 112 Inherent Limitations of the Computer 112 The Human Factor 113 A Cautionary Word About Jargon 113 The Manager and The Computer 115 Who Uses Computer Based Decision Support (And Who Doesn't) 117 A Close-to-Home Anecdote 121 TWO AND 1/2 (R)EVOLUTIONS: WHY MANAGERS MAY OVERCOME COMPUTER AVOIDANCE (AND OBSTACLES THAT MUST FIRST BE REMOVED) 123 The Microcomputer 124 Reasons for Microcomputer Ubiquity 126 Problems with Hardware 130 Progress in Software 134 Interactive/"User-Fr iendly" 134 Spreadsheets, Database Managers, and Integrated Software 136 The Dark Side of Software 139 Expert Systems, Artificial Intelligence, Artificial Expertise, and So Forth 142 vi i TABLE OF CONTENTS—Continued Page Networking 145 Behavioral Modification: Advertising 148 8. MY VERY OWN JAPAN VS AMERICA STORY 155 9. WHERE WE STAND 160 APPENDIX A: SELECTED COMMENTS FROM SURVEY RESPONDENTS 167 APPENDIX B: SOME BACK-UP FROM BUSINESSMEN: REAL EXECUTIVES DON'T USE COMPUTERS....176 APPENDIX C: COMPUTER DISCUSSIONS ARE PRONE TO "FLAMING" 182 APPENDIX D: THE IBM - GADS STUDY OF DECISION-MAKERS 184 SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY 187 ABSTRACT First defined a decade ago, Decision Support Systems have recently been receiving considerable attention in management and information-processing publications. The premise of DSS is that the use of the computer as a personal tool by executives can improve the speed and soundness of their decisions. Unfortunately, previous evaluations of its status have been biased by economic or philosophic ties held by DSS advocates. To get a clearer picture of computer use in management decision-making, I interviewed thirty-seven information-processing specialists with experience in over sixteen cities. An overwhelming majority said DSS as presented in theory has no existence in reality. Most stated that Computer-Based Decision Support actually means "spreadsheet" analytical and database management software packages geared primarily for use on microcomputers. The proliferation of microcomputers, coupled with advancements in software capabilities, has redefined Decision Support. The question is whether executives will adopt and improve this tool. vi i i CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Question to James March, in April 1983: Frankel: "Would you, as an expert in Decision Support " March: "There ARE no experts in Decision Support." The instigation for this thesis came from a realization of my own bias. Upon first hearing of Decision Support Systems in the summer of 1982, I became a strong proponent of the cause. That wasn't surprising, since I had been involved with computers and computer programming since 1967. The use of computers as a tool to aid in decision-making is the logical culmination of events for computer jockeys, students of management, and people who grew up on science fiction. I was all of the above. There are, currently, a lot of people making a lot of promises about what Computer-Based Decision Support (CBDS) can do for business. In particular, the advocates of "Decision Support Systems" (DSS) have spearheaded the drive to convince executives that they can no longer function successfully without the hands-on use of such 1 2 computer systems. Management and Electronic Data Processing journals are full of their articles and advertisements (and often a combination of the two). Some of these articles, particularly those which Managerial Planning tends to publish, are as substantive as marshmallow creme. Other sources, such as the Addison- Wesley series on Decision Support Systems, offer somewhat more palpable evidence for the use of Decision Support, with realistic consideration of the problems of personalities and politics that pose a barrier to the initiation and use of new computer systems.
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