股
票
研 Research 究 [Table_Title]
Equity Research Department
Morning Research Focus
13 February 2020
[Table_Summary] Table of Contents 目录
Focus 今 News Focus 新闻焦点
晨 Industry and Company Focus 行业和公司焦点
焦
Research Great Wall Motor (02333HK): Vehicles Sales Decreased 28.2% YoY in January 2020 点
长城汽车 (02333HK)：2020 年 1 月汽车销量同比下跌 28.2% Morning
Latest Reports 最新报告摘要
Company EPS Code Title TP Chg Rating Chg Name Est.Change? 代码 标题 目标价 z 评级 变动 公司名称 盈利预测是否改变 Flash Note: MoF Urges Early
Infrastructure Release of New Local Government -- Outperform -- N
Sector 证 Debt of RMB848 Billion for 2020
告 快讯：财政部要求提前下达 2020 年新增 券 基建行业 -- 跑赢大市 -- 否 地方政府债务限额人民币 8,480 亿元
研 报
究 究 Appendices ：Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports.
报 研 后附：行业和公司焦点，最新报告摘要中文版。
告
券
EquityResearch Report
证 HSI Performance HSCEI Performance
16,000
35,000
33,000 14,000 31,000
29,000 12,000 27,000
25,000 10,000 23,000
21,000 8,000
19,000
17,000 6,000 Feb/19 May/19 Aug/19 Nov/19 Feb/20 Feb/19 May/19 Aug/19 Nov/19 Feb/20
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
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Morning Research Focus
新闻焦点 [NewsTable_ NewsFocus]Focus
The Federal Reserve will be forced to use large-scale asset purchases “aggressively” in a downturn, Chairman Jerome Powell said, as central bankers confront the dilemma of persistently low interest rates. ”We will have less room to cut,” Powell told the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday. “Low rates are not really a choice anymore, they are a fact of reality.” The comments show the Fed chief is prepared to lowering rates to zero in the next recession and deploying crisis-era policy tools.
联储会主席鲍威尔表示，如果美国经济再次滑坡，联储会将不得不“积极”进行大规模资产购买，因为央行决策者 面临着持续低利率的困境。 “我们的降息空间将减少，”鲍威尔周三在参议院银行委员会作证时表示，“低利率 不再是一个选项，而是现实。”鲍威尔的评论显示，联储会主席准备在下一次衰退中降息至零水平，并部署危机时 代的政策工具。
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Georgieva said the lender is collecting data to assess the impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China, and hopes to see a V-shaped recovery despite considerable uncertainty surrounding the situation. The fund’s primary forecast is for a quick recovery in the world’s second-largest economy as manufacturers make up for lost time and warehouses are restocked, according to a statement released Wednesday in Washington. “We are still at the point of quite a lot of uncertainty,” Georgieva said, adding that the most likely of scenarios is a V-shaped bounce from the interruptions. “Sharp decline in economic activities in China, followed by a rapid recovery and a total impact on China relatively contained.”
IMF 总裁格奥尔基耶娃（Georgieva）表示，该组织正在收集数据以评估冠状病毒疫情在中国爆发的影响，尽管形 势有着很大的不确定性，但希望能看到 V 型复苏。该基金组织周三发布的声明称，其主要预测是这个世界第二大 经济体将出现迅速复苏，因为制造商将补回失去的时间并且重建库存。 “我们仍处于很高的不确定性中，”格奥 尔基耶娃表示，最有可能发生的情况是从中断处形成 V 形反弹，“中国经济活动急剧下降，随后迅速复苏，对中 国的总体影响相对有限。”
Industry[Table_Focus and] Company Focus
Great Wall Motor (02333HK): Vehicles Sales Decreased 28.2% YoY in January 2020
Analyst: Toliver Ma
What happened: Great Wall Motor (“GWM” or “the Company”) announced its Jan. 2020 sales data. Vehicle sales were 80,261 units in January, decreased by 28.2% yoy. Sales of pick-up truck increased 17.1% yoy, whereas SUV sales decreased 33.8% yoy.
Comments and Views: GWM record another large decrease, 3 months in a row. The decrease in this month is largely due to the timing difference in CNY, which was earlier this year. Pick-up truck continued to perform thanks to additional sales provided by new Great Wall Pao, which was launched in Nov. 2019. Of all key Haval models, only Haval M6 was able to deliver growth (+18.4% yoy) due to an upgrade made in mid-2019. In contrast, all key Haval models such as H6 and F7 recorded significant decline. Similarly, WEY brand and ORA down 37.1% yoy and 65.7% yoy.
Investment suggestion: Sales momentum has been weakening since 4Q19 and we expect sales to remain weak in 1Q20. We expect new growth engine could be the launch of new models in 2020, however the launch time is uncertain at the moment. Valuation unattractive in our view. GWM investment rating is "Reduce" and with TP of HK$5.10. The TP represents 9.1x 2020 PER and 8.8x 2021 PER.
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[Table_Latest] Latest Reports
Flash Note: Infrastructure Sector:MoF Urges Early Release of New Local Government Debt of RMB848 Billion for 2020 Rating: Outperform 6-18m TP: n.a. Analyst: Gary Wong Report Date: 2020-02-12
Summary
The Ministry of Finance (MoF) announced that in order to speed up the progress of new local governments’ bond issuance and use, it will advance the release of RMB848 billion in local government debt to be issued in 2020, of which the general debt amounts to RMB558 billion and the special debt amounts to RMB290 billion. In addition to the special debt of RMB1 trillion issued advanced earlier, a total of RMB1,848 billion in new local government debt in 2020 will be issued in advance.
According to statistics, as at the end of January 2020, the amount of issued special bonds reached RMB714.8 billion, a 71% increase from the amount issued in 2019 during the same period. In addition, excluding the newly announced advance issuance of RMB290 billion, the issuance amount of special bond as at January already accounted for 71.5% of the RMB1 trillion of advance issuance quota, reflecting a strong push for early advancement. The Ministry of Finance disclosed that a total of RMB2,148.7 billion in special bonds was issued in 2019, and the market expects a total up to RMB3,000 billion this year, a 40% increase from 2019. With the expected increase in the amount and speed of issuance, local infrastructure projects should have more adequate capital to push forward, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2020 is expected to be higher than 3.7% in 2019.
Taking into account the above factors, while considering that 2020 is the end of the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan", we believe investment will accelerate compared with previous years, based on experience. In addition, the government is currently in need to increase infrastructure investment to maintain economic stability and thus, we expect the growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2020 to be higher than expected. We think China Railway Group (00390 HK, "Buy"), China Railway Construction (01186 HK, "Buy") and China CRSC (03969 HK, "Accumulate") will be the main beneficiaries of the acceleration of railway construction. In addition, we think that China Communication Construction (01800 HK, "Accumulate") will benefit from the increasing funding of public infrastructure facilities, such as hospitals and highways. Reiterate the sector’s "Outperform" rating.
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Chinese Translation 中文翻译
行业和公司焦点[Table_Focus_chi ]
长城汽车 (02333HK)：2020 年 1 月汽车销量同比下跌 28.2%
分析员：马守彰
事件描述：长城汽车公告了其 2020 年 1 月的汽车销售数据。1 月的汽车销量为 80,261 辆，同比下跌 28.2%。 皮卡的销量同比增长 17.1%；SUV 的销量则同比下跌 33.8%。
观点评论：长城汽车连续三个月录得大幅下降。1 月下降主要是由于今年春节的时间差异。皮卡继续表现良好， 主要受益于 2019 年 11 月推出的皮卡-长城炮所贡献的销售。另一方面，在所有主要的哈弗车型中，只有哈弗 M6 能够实现增长（同比增长 18.4％），因在 2019 年中升级。相比之下，所有关键的哈弗车型（例如 H6 和 F7） 均大幅下降。同样，WEY 品牌和欧拉品牌分别同比下降 37.1%和 65.7%。
投资建议：自 2019 年第 4 季度以来，销售动能一直在减弱，我们预计 2020 年第 1 季度销售将会较弱。新的 增长动力可能要等到 2020 年新车型的推出，但是目前发布时间尚不确定。我们认为估值缺乏吸引力。长城汽 车的投资评级为“减持”，目标价为 5.10 港元。 目标价相当于 9.1 倍 2020 年市盈率和 8.8 倍 2021 年市盈率。
[Table_Latest_chi] 最新报告
快讯：基建行业: 财政部要求提前下达 2020 年新增地方政府债务限额人民币 8,480 亿元
评级： 跑赢大市 6-18m 目标价: n.a. 分析员： 黄家玮 报告日期: 2020-02-12
报告摘要
财政部公布，为加快地方政府债券发行使用进度，近期提前下达 2020 年新增地方政府债务限额 8,480 亿元(人民币，下同)， 其中一般债务限额 5,580 亿元、专项债务限额 2,900 亿元。加上此前提前下达的专项债务 1 万亿元，将共提前下达 2020 年新增地方政府债务限额 18,480 亿元。
据统计，截至 2020 年 1 月底，已发行专项债的额度达到 7,148 亿元，较 2019 年同期发行额大增 71%。此外，若不包括刚 公布提前发行的额度 2,900 亿元，截至 1 月专项债发行额度已占提前下达发行额度 1 万亿元的 71.5%，反映下发力度非常 强。财政部披露 2019 年共发行专项债总额 21,487 亿元，市场预计今年总额或可达 30,000 亿元，较 2019 年大增 40%。在 下发额度及速度均预期增加的情况下，地方基建项目将有更充足的资金推动，预计 2020 年基建投资增速将高于 2019 年的 3.7%。
考虑到上述因素，加上 2020 年为 “十三五”收官之年，根据以往经验投资将较往年提速，加上现时政府有增加基建投资以 维持经济稳定的需要，我们认为 2020 年基建投资增速或有超于预期的可能。我们认为中国中铁(00390 HK，“买入”)、中 国铁建(01186 HK, “买入”)及中国通号(03969 HK, “收集”)将是铁路建设提速最主要的受益者。此外，我们认为中交建 (01800 HK，“收集”)亦将受惠于公共基础设施，如公路及医院等项目的加大投入。重申行业“跑赢大市”评级。
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Grace Liu 刘 谷 Head of Research, Market 主管，市场策略、 石化 [email protected] (852) 2509 7516 Strategy, Petrochemicals
Noah Hudson Noah Hudson Consumer (Hotels), Gaming 消费（酒店）、博彩 [email protected] (852) 2509 5441
Gary Wong 黄家玮 Environmental Protection, 环保、基建 [email protected] (852) 2509 2616 Infrastructure
Kevin Guo 郭 勇 Raw Materials, Gas 原材料、燃气 [email protected] (86755) 2397 6671
Richard Cao 曹 柱 Banking 银行 [email protected] (86755) 2397 6870
Jun Zhu 朱俊杰 Solar, Electric Equipment, 太阳能、电力设备、综合业务 [email protected] (852) 2509 7592 Conglomerate
Andrew Song 宋 涛 Consumer (Retailing), 消费（零售）、 家电 [email protected] (852) 2509 5313 Home Appliances
Terry Hong 洪学宇 Consumer (Apparel) 消费（服装） [email protected] (86755) 2397 6722
Johnny Wong 王俊浩 Property 房地产 [email protected] (852) 2509 5348
Toliver Ma 马守彰 Aviation, 航空、汽车 [email protected] (852) 2509 5317 Automobiles & Components
Barney Wu 吴宇扬 Consumer (Food & Beverage, 消费（食品饮料、 日用品） [email protected] (86755) 2397 6680 Household Products)
Jake Wang 汪昌江 Market Strategy, Wind Energy& 市场策略、风电及其它 [email protected] (86755) 2397 6675 others
Wiley Huang 黄重钧 Insurance, Fixed-income 保险、债券 [email protected] (852) 2509 5409
Kay Mai 麦梓琪 Health care 医药 [email protected] (86755) 2397 6685
Danny Law 罗沛达 E-commerce 电子商务 [email protected] (852) 2509 7768
Jason Zhou 周桓葳 Internet 互联网 [email protected] (852) 2509 5347
David Feng 冯廷帅 Machinery, Construction Materials 机械、建材 [email protected] (852) 2509 2113
Gin Yu 余劲同 Telecommunication Service & 电信服务及设备 [email protected] (852) 2509 2130 Equipment
Jack Liu 柳 晨 Property 房地产 [email protected] (852) 2509 2149
Andy Huang 黄凯鸿 Market Strategy 市场策略 [email protected] (86755) 2397 6702
Jack Wu 吴 狄 Market Strategy 市场策略 [email protected] (86755) 2397 6718
Peter Shao 邵俊樨 Petrochemicals 石化 [email protected] (852) 2509 5464
Kevin Zhuo 卓仕凯 Shipping & Logistics, Ports 航运物流、港口 [email protected] (86755)2397 6725
Teddy Lin 林荣叶 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (86755)2397 6692
Jerrimy Wang 王 瀚 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (86755) 2397 6756
Alfred Chen 陈 傲 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (86755) 2397 6672
Andy Chen 陈思超 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (852) 2509 2665
Alex Bai 白 舸 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (852) 2509 7202
Peter Huang 黄冠雄 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (852) 2509 7204
Gordon Gong 龚悦来 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (852) 2509 2603
Esabella Zhao 赵舒蔓 Research Assistant, Translator 研究助理、翻译员 [email protected] (86755) 2397 6681
Penny Pan 潘凌蕾 Secretary, Translator 秘书、翻译员 [email protected] (852) 2509 2632
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Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Buy 买入 Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate 收集 Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Neutral 中性 Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce 减持 Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell 卖出 Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.
Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform 跑赢大市 Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral 中性 Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform 跑输大市 Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.
DISCLOSURE [Table_DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS] OF INTERESTS
(1) Except for SHENZHEN INTERNATIONAL (00152 HK), the Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for Q P GROUP (01412 HK),ZGC TEC LEASING (01601 HK),KAISA GROUP (01638 HK),GUOTAI JUNAN I (01788 HK),BANK OF GANSU (02139 HK),JINSHANG BANK (02558 HK),ZHONGLIANG HLDG (02772 HK),BINHAI INVESTMENT (02886 HK),HAITIAN ANTENNA (08227 HK),Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships with TSINGTAO BREWERY- H SHARES (00168 HK),SMI HOLDINGS GROUP (00198 HK),CHINA TRAVEL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT HONG KONG LIMITED (00308 HK),CHINA GAS (00384 HK),GOME ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES (00493 HK),TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED (00780 HK),DONGJIANG ENVIRONMENTAL- H SHARES (00895 HK),MODERN LAND (01107 HK),POWERLONG REAL ESTATE (01238 HK),CHINA EVERBRIGHT GREENTECH LIMITED (01257 HK),CHINA ZHONGWANG (01333 HK),CHINA SOUTH CITY (01668 HK),COLOUR LIFE SERVICES (01778 HK),XIAOMI CORPORATION (01810 HK),CHINA RISUN GROUP (01907 HK),BAIC MOTOR- H SHARES (01958 HK),RONSHINE CHINA (03301 HK),MEITUAN DIANPING (03690 HK),HUISHANG BANK- H SHARES (03698 HK),CHINA AOYUAN PROPERTY (03883 HK),GREENTOWN CHINA (03900 HK) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Guotai Junan and its group companies are not making a market in the securities mentioned in this Research Report. (6) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not employed an individual serving as an officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report associated with Guotai Junan and its group companies.
DISCLAIMER
This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily).
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