Apollo Solar Energy Tech
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Cleantech Apollo Solar Energy Tech Speculative Buy Ready for Prime Time 19 November 2010 Apollo Solar Energy Technologies Holdings Limited (566.HK) is an amorphous silicon thin-film equipment and Apollo Solar Energy Technology Holdings turnkey solutions provider. Apollo’s key value drivers are Limited offers field-proven equipment and end-to-end manufacturing lines for the mass the yield throughput, single chamber deposition process, production of thin-film silicon solar modules. amorphous silicon/silicon germanium technology, and the As a ‘spin off’ from GS-Solar, it was formed in November 2009 by merging Apollo Precision ‘HK$19.84bn (3GW) mega contract’ with Hanergy, which Limited, a company focusing on turnkey comprises 60% of Apollo’s order pipeline. solutions for thin-film solar module manufacturing, with RBI Holdings Limited, a Thin-film Second Phase Investment Cycle — Investment in solar HKEx-listed company focusing on toy design thin-film equipment is beginning its second phase investment cycle. Market and manufacturing opportunities for thin-film equipment suppliers are especially strong for Market cap HK$3.09bn those with key vacuum deposition tooling, such as that provided by Apollo, which makes up the majority of equipment spending. Ticker 566.HK Price HK$0.67 Apollo’s Technology — Apollo’s technology edge lies with leading Shares in issue 4.6bn plasma-enhanced chemical vapour deposition (PECVD) technology for the deposition of photovoltaic layers on glass. Apollo’s customised turnkey 52-week high/low (HK$) 1.58/0.49 amorphous silicon manufacturing equipment offers the lowest cost of Top shareholders production per watt for thin-film modules, along with superior yield. Over the last 12 months, using Apollo’s equipment, key customers had an GS-Solar 10.04% installed capacity of 200MW. Yang Yu Sheng 8.69% Dai Hai Dong 6.89% Hanergy Energy — Beijing-based Hanergy Energy is the largest privately- Ming Tsui 5.54% owned renewable energy generator in China, and also has operations in the Edmond De Rothschild 5.20% US and Europe. Hanergy is predominantly a hydro power generator, with 2.4GW of operating assets in 2010 and a portfolio of 6.0GW (including development pipeline). On 20 May 2010 Hanergy completed a ‘mega Share Price Performance (HK$) contract’ order of thin-film PV module manufacturing lines worth 1.60 HK$19.84bn (3GW) with Apollo, in exchange for a 25% shareholding upon 1.40 completion. The contract is divided into three batches of production 1.20 lines, and is to be produced and delivered in three years. Apollo has 1.00 0.80 prepared the first of three deliveries. Hanergy has a stated target of 0.60 installing 50GW of thin-film solar farm capacity by 2020, as it attempts to 0.40 reshape the global solar industry. 0.20 0.00 Risks — Upside risks: further investment from a potential strategic Nov‐09 Feb‐10 May‐10 Aug‐10 investor; improved customer order announcements; Hanergy receipts; Source: Bloomberg new technology milestones. Downside risks: slow order delivery; negative amorphous silicon industry news. We initiate with a SPECULATIVE BUY rating and a price target of HK$1.11, a 66% premium to the current share price of HK$0.67. Table 1: Financial Summary (HK$000) Dean Cooper Yr to Dec 08 09 10E 11E 12E +44 (0)7747 700 842 Revenue 511,810 717,442 4,604,320 8,890,480 7,936,000 [email protected] Gross Profit 61,650 151,105 3,453,240 6,667,860 5,952,000 Gurpreet Gujral, CFA Profit/(Loss) (55,677) (124,494) 2,543,495 4,838,760 4,015,844 +44 (0)20 7634 4771 Cash Balance 51,770 153,637 3,289,293 8,609,450 13,113,442 [email protected] Source: Company data, Ambrian estimates Apollo Solar Energy Tech – 19 November 2010 Contents Investment Thesis 3 Valuation 4 Company Overview 6 Customers 13 Thin-Film Industry 18 Second Phase Investment Cycle 18 First Phase Investment — CdTe Breakthrough 18 Volume Growth — International 19 China Market Growth 19 Thin-Film Industry 19 Thin-Film Silicon 19 Thin-Film non-Silicon 19 Thin-Film Economics in China 20 Impact on Polysilicon 20 Amorphous Silicon 21 First Generation a-Si — Single Tandem 21 Second Generation a-Si/a-Si — Double Tandem 21 Third Generation a-Si/Si-Ge — Double Tandem 21 Structure 22 Staebler-Wronski Effect 22 Apollo’s Cutting Edge Technology 23 Competition 26 Competitors that Have Left the Market 26 Remaining Competitors 26 Other Thin-Film Silicon Manufacturers 27 Pricing 28 Management 29 Financials 31 Risks 34 Appendix 35 Apollo Solar Energy Tech – 19 November 2010 Investment Thesis Apollo Solar Energy Technology Holdings Limited (‘Apollo’) provides amorphous thin-film silicon equipment and end-to-end manufacturing lines for the mass production of thin-film silicon solar modules. As the thin-film silicon (and As the thin-film silicon (and crystalline silicon) manufacturing industry crystalline silicon) manufacturing embarks on the second phase of its investment cycle, market industry embarks on the second opportunities are plentiful for thin-film equipment suppliers. phase of its investment cycle, Led by a group of industry-leading engineers with strong experience in market opportunities are plentiful thin-film, vacuum processing and precision manufacturing, Apollo’s key for thin-film equipment suppliers differentiators are: The lowest cost of module manufacturing with largest throughput, achieved by using a single chamber production process and multiple pieces of glass. Advanced amorphous silicon and silicon germanium (a-Si/SiGe) technology. The solar business has the following product portfolio: Proprietary plasma enhanced chemical vapour depositor (PECVD) for deposition of photovoltaic layers. Proprietary magnetron sputtering devices for the deposition of conductive electrode layers. Automated turnkey solution with a complete and fully-integrated manufacturing system for thin-film photovoltaic module Figure 1: Integrated Turnkey Solutions with Flexible Module Design Source: Apollo Solar Energy Technology Apollo’s turnkey manufacturing Apollo’s turnkey manufacturing equipment provides superior yield, equipment provides superior combined with the lowest cost of production per watt for thin-film silicon yield, combined with the lowest modules. cost of production per watt for Apollo’s integrated manufacturing lines using proprietary PECVD and PVD thin-film silicon modules technologies position it favourably for the second phase of the thin-film equipment investment cycle, especially as demand focuses on suppliers of key vacuum deposition tooling, such as Apollo. The dominant market for Apollo will be in China, the manufacturing hub of the world. This is shown by Apollo’s ‘mega HK$19.84bn contract’ with China’s largest private renewable energy generator, Hanergy Energy. 3 Apollo Solar Energy Tech – 19 November 2010 Valuation Apollo’s short-to-medium-term growth is underpinned by the HK$19.84bn contract with Hanergy. This provides a sustained growth profile for three years, and implies a step-change in the financial profile of the company. We estimate revenues will increase from HK$717m in 2009 to HK$4.6bn in Figure 2: Revenue Growth 2010 and HK$8.9bn in 2011. Given the company’s relatively strong profit HK$ margins (average of 51%), we expect this to have a dramatic impact on 14,000,000 the valuation of the company. 12,000,000 The contract announcement was made during the summer of 2010, 10,000,000 causing the stock price to jump to HK$0.91. However, since then, the 8,000,000 price has trended down back to HK$0.67. We believe there are two 6,000,000 significant reasons for this: 4,000,000 Some investors could be fearful of the potential dilution that is likely 2,000,000 to occur when Hanergy subscribes to the shares and when existing option holders execute their holdings. The total number of shares ‐‐ outstanding is likely to increase from 4.9bn shares to 21.8bn shares 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 fully diluted. Source: Ambrian estimates Given the size of the Hanergy contract, we believe some investors are sceptical that it will be completed, especially due to the fact that Hanergy’s financial position is not disclosed in any public forum. While we sympathise with the latter point, we highlight Hanergy’s credibility as a renewable energy generator in this report given its relatively large portfolio of operating and pipeline assets. Hanergy has 2.4GW of operating hydro assets and annual free cashflow of approximately £250m. Dilution is an obvious concern; however, we believe the potential upside from the growth profile of Apollo will outweigh any dilution impact for investors today. We forecast Apollo will generate HK$2.5bn and HK$4.8bn PAT in FY10 and FY11 respectively. This places the company on P/E multiples of 5x and 3x in for FY10 and FY11 on a fully-diluted basis. In Figure 3 we highlight how an investment today is affected by dilution over the next five years, relative to the increase in shareholder value for the company. We forecast Apollo will generate The blue line highlights what the dilution impact would be if an investor HK$2.5bn and HK$4.8bn PAT in buys 1bn shares in the company today. This will equate to 15% by the end FY10 and FY11 respectively. This of 2010 due to the first tranche of subscription shares issued to Hanergy. places the company on P/E We forecast this will drop to 5% by the end of 2013, which is when the multiples of 5x and 3x in for FY10 convertible bonds mature and are executed. and FY11 on a fully-diluted basis The green bar highlights the proportion of the Net Asset Value of the company this shareholder will own.