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18 NOVEMBER 2013 HONGINITIATION KONG / ALTERNATIVE 34 TAIWAN ENERGY /TECHNOLOGY HANERGY SOLAR 566 HK HOW WE DIFFER FROM CONSENSUS MARKET RECS TARGET PRICE HKD1.34 TARGET PRICE (%) 52 POSITIVE 1 HOLD CLOSE HKD1.25 EPS 2013 (%) NA NEUTRAL 0 UP/DOWNSIDE +7.4% CHANGEPRIOR TP IN TP HKD % EPS 2014 (%) NA NEGATIVE 1 Wait on the sidelines KEY STOCK DATA YE Dec (HKD m) 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenue 2,756 4,556 5,275 6,182 n Downstream business is still too small to move the needle The 1H results were a surprise, with sales and profit growing 86% Rec. net profit 1,316 2,955 2,985 3,264 and 165% h-h. Momentum is likely to persist in 2H13 thanks to a Recurring EPS (HKD) 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.12 stable equipment business. However, concerns lie in the fact that EPS growth (%) 47.0 8.0 1.0 9.4 parent company Hanergy Group (not listed , 63% stake) is also the Recurring P/E (x) 12.8 11.8 11.7 10.7 sole customer. High reliance on the parent is a double-edged sword: Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hanergy Solar receives both technical and financial support, but does not have total control over its business strategy. Expansion into EV/EBITDA (x) 9.5 7.0 8.6 7.2 downstream solar farms is a way out, as it could diversify the Price/book (x) 1.4 2.2 1.8 1.6 customer base, yet at 7% of projected sales in 2014, it is still too Net debt/Equity (%) (6.2) (14.2) (1.8) (4.8) small to move the needle. ROE (%) 11.9 21.4 17.2 15.9 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 n Environment friendly for TF, but cost-competitiveness unproven 394 We think the environment is favourable for Thin-Film (TF) given its 1.24 exemption from Europe’s price undertaking agreement, and lower 294 conversion requirement for distributed PV subsidies in China . Recent 0.74 194 IP acquisitions from global TF leaders MiaSolé and Solibro could 94 hasten CIGS-type TF’s commercialisation, however, its cost- 0.24 (6) (HKD) Hanergy Solar Rel to MSCI Hong Kong (%) competitiveness remains to be seen. Share price performance 1 Month 3 Month 12 Month n Initiate with a HOLD and a TP of HKD1.34 Absolute (%) (6.7) 76.1 363.0 We initiate coverage with a HOLD, our HKD1.34 TP is based on 9.5x Relative to country (%) (5.5) 74.1 352.6 2014E EV/EBITDA. We like the company’s smooth expansion into Next results February 2014 downstream and decent 2014 and 2015 ROE of 17% and 16%, but Mkt cap (USD m) 4,502 are cautious on its single-customer dependence. We suggest waiting 3m avg daily turnover (USD m) 29.0 on the sidelines for now. Faster ramp-up on solar farm projects would be a positive sign, as it implies a more diversified customer base. Free float (%) 37 Major shareholder Hanergy Group (63%) Hanergy Solar’s sales mix: Moving into downstream solar farms 12m high/low (HKD) 1.43/0.26 (%) Equipment Downstream 3m historic vol. (%) 67.7 100 ADR ticker - 80 ADR closing price (USD) - 60 Issued shares (m) 27,927 40 Sources: Bloomberg consensus; BNP Paribas estimates 20 0 1H12 2H12 1H13E 2H13E 1H14E 2H14E 1H15E 2H15E Sources: Hanergy Solar; BNP Paribas estimates Esther C Chen [email protected] +886 2 8729 7065 Our research is available on Thomson One, Bloomberg, TheMarkets.com, Factset and on http://eqresearch.bnpparibas.com/index. Please contact your salesperson for authorisation. Please see the important notice on the back page. PREPARED BY NON-US BROKER-DEALER(S): BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES (TAIWAN) LTD THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN APPROVED FOR U.S DISTRIBUTION. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CAN BE FOUND AT APPENDIX ON PAGE 34 Hanergy Solar 566 HK Esther C Chen Investment thesis Catalyst Unlike c-Si, TFPV has higher technology entry barriers and Smooth progress on solar farm projects with 120MW to be broader applications than the conventional c-Si PV. In this on-grid in China by the end of 2013. This will start field, First Solar (FSLR US, Not Rated) is currently the only contributing sales and bring cash flow in 1Q14 but still a large-scale over one gigawatt (GW) production size TF solar small amount. manufacturer in the world, followed by Solar Frontier (not The environment for TF is favourable, as it is exempt from listed). As such, the TF supply chain is healthier than that for Europe’s anti-dumping levies; this provides a window for TF c-Si. Hanergy Solar has recently acquired the CIGS (a type of to gain market share. TF) leaders MiaSolé and Solibro, which should hasten CIGS’s commercialisation. However, its cost-competiveness Risks to our call remains to be proved. Key upside risks to our TP are faster-than-expected The downstream solar farm business is progressing expansion in the downstream solar farm business, and smoothly, with 120MW capacity to be on-grid by the end of earlier-than-expected commercialis ation of CIGS technology. 2013. Hanergy Solar can leverage its parent company Key downside risks are anti-dumping disputes on TF and Hanergy Group’s expertise. We believe the expansion into subsidy cuts from the China government. the downstream solar farm business is a key move as it will diversify the customer base and ease investors’ concerns on the current single-customer issue . However, our estimation of a 7% sales contribution in 2014E is still too small to move the needle. This diversification is more like a story for beyond 2015E. Company background Key assumptions Hanergy Solar offers field-proven turnkey solutions for large- 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E scale thin-film (TF) solar cell production systems. The company Equipment installation (MW) 500 1,030 1,122 1,184 acquired global TF leaders MiaSolé and Solibro in September Solar farm installation (MW) - - 280 370 2013. It is actively seeking investment opportunities in Equipment ASP (USD/watt) 0.71 0.57 0.56 0.55 downstream solar projects (solar farms) and moving towards the global photovoltaic power generation market. Solar farm ASP (USD/watt) - - 0.16 0.16 Source: BNP Paribas estimates Principal activities (2013E to 2014E sales mix) Earnings sensitivity Year -end ------ Base ------ ------ Best------ ------ Worst ----- Solar farm 7.3% 31 Dec 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E Equipment installation (MW) 1,122 1,184 1,234 1,302 1,010 1,065 Change (%) 10 10 (10) (10) Solar farm installation (MW) 280 370 308 407 252 333 Change (%) 10 10 (10) (10) Sales (HKD m) 5,275 6,182 5,803 6,800 4,748 5,564 Change (%) 10 10 (10) (10) Solar Solar equipment equipment 100.0% 92.7% Key executives Source: BNP Paribas estimates Age Since Title We believe the key factors for sales momentum are the Mingfang Dai (Frank) 49 2010 Chairman/CEO installation of equipment and solar farms. Dr. Li Yuan-min 54 2009 Deputy Chairman/CTO Chen Li 40 2011 Executive Vice President A 10% increase in equipment and solar farm installation would raise 2014E and 2015E sales by 10% and 10%, all Hui Ka Wah (Ronnie), J.P. 49 2009 Finance Director and Senior VP else being equal. Li Guangmin 36 2002 Financial Controller A 10% increase in equipment and solar farm installation http://www.hanergysolargroup.com would raise 2014E and 2015E sales by 10% and 10%, all else being equal. 2 BNP PARIBAS 18 NOVEMBER 2013 Hanergy Solar 566 HK Esther C Chen Focused on Thin-Film technology Why Thin-Film Photovoltaic? Instead of jumping into the competitive c-Si PV (crystalline silicon photovoltaic) TF supply chain is healthier than c-Si, arena, Hanergy Solar focuses on TFPV (Thin-Film Photovoltaic) technology. while conversion efficiency needs to According to EPIA, TF accounted for c.15% of global PV market share in 2012 be improved (Exhibit 1) with only a few players (around 10 active players vs. around 150 players in the c-Si field). Although TF’s conversion efficiency is lower than c-Si PV currently; we think it will gradually gain traction thanks to technology advances and the higher technology entry barriers, as well as its multiple advantages, which we outline below: 1. Semiconductor technology: While the c-Si solar cell is produced on a physical process, TF production, similar to semiconductor production, combines physical and chemical processes. Thus, it has higher entry barriers and fewer physical limitations, leaving more room for conversion efficiency to be improved. 2. Higher tolerance to hot temperatures: When the temperature is above 25ºC, conversion efficiency decreases accordingly. However, TF has a higher tolerance to hot temperatures: every 1ºC of decrease in temperature causes an approximately 1% reduction in c-Si PV vs c.0.5% for TF. As such, a TF module could generate a higher energy yield then c-Si in regions with average temperatures over 25ºC, such as South Africa, South America, and South-East Asia. 3. Better performance under weak light: TF could deliver a more-stable performance than c-Si when the irradiance is weak (e.g., at twilight, dawn, or during winter time), implying longer ultraviolet solar hours. TF could also work under shadow with indirect light, whereas shadows may cause significant power loss or even damage to c-Si panels. 4. More applications especially BIPV (Building-integrated Photovoltaics): TF could be easily installed on any type of rooftop without racks as it is thinner and lighter.
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