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Executive Analysis of ASEAN Automotive Market Outlook ASEAN Offers High Potential As the Sixth-Largest Automotive Market in World

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Executive Analysis of ASEAN Automotive Market Outlook ASEAN Offers High Potential As the Sixth-Largest Automotive Market in World Executive Analysis of ASEAN Automotive Market Outlook ASEAN Offers High Potential as the Sixth-largest Automotive Market in World P7DB-18 June 2014 Executive Summary Return to contents P7DB-18 5 Key Findings By 2020, Indonesia is likely to replace Thailand as the largest automotive market in ASEAN; Thailand to become an international automotive production hub. Total Automotive Market: Key Takeaways, ASEAN, 2013 In 2013, the ASEAN automotive market witnessed a marginal increase (1.1%) in unit shipment. Indonesia and Malaysia witnessed historical highs in automotive sales, whereas Thailand 1 witnessed a decline in vehicle sales over the previous year due to economic slowdown and political turmoil. Automotive production in ASEAN witnessed a y-o-y growth of 4.2%. Indonesia alone recorded a 13.4% growth over 2012 as several OEMs set up new production or expansion projects. 2 Thailand, ASEAN’s production hub, recorded a marginal growth (0.1%), but Malaysia reached a record production volume above 600,000 units with 5.6% growth over 2012. In 2020, ASEAN is expected to retain its position as the sixth-largest automotive market globally. 3 Indonesia is expected to overtake Thailand to emerge as the largest automotive market in the region. Thailand is expected to continue to be the largest production hub in ASEAN. Passenger vehicles are emerging as the key segment in ASEAN, particularly the compact fuel- 4 efficient ones, due to Thailand’s eco -car program, Indonesia's KBH2, and Malaysia’s Low -cost Green Car (LCGC) program. Japanese car brands such as Toyota, Honda, and Nissan continue to be most popular in 5 Thailand and Indonesia. Malaysian national car brands Proton and Perodua remain market leaders but are expected to lose considerable market share to Japanese brands by 2020. Source: Frost & Sullivan P7DB-18 6 Executive Summary —Market Engineering Measurements By 2020, the ASEAN automotive market to touch 4.9 million units. Total Automotive Market: Market Engineering Measurements, ASEAN, 2013 Market Overview Market Size for Base Year Market Market Stage Last Year of Market Growth Units/Volume Study Period Rate Growth 3,216,366 4,891,500 1.1% (2013) (2020) Compound Market Number of Annual Growth Concentration Competitors Rate 6.2% 56.4% ~40 (% of market share held (active market competitors (CAGR, 2013 –2020) by top 3 companies) in base year) For a tabular version click here. *Not Applicable as each market under consideration has Decreasing Stable Increasing different market participants as top 3 companies. Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2013. Source: Frost & Sullivan P7DB-18 7 Total Market Unit Shipment Snapshot Indonesia to continue to be the largest market in ASEAN in 2020. Total Automotive Market: Unit Shipment Forecast, ASEAN, 2013 –2020 CAGR = 6.2% 3,216,366 3,000,000 4,891,500 2,500,000 2,400,000 2,000,000 28.0% 34.0% 1,616,500 32.1% 1,500,000 875,000 1,000,000 49.2% 11.5% Unit Shipment 72.0% Unit Shipment 67.9% 500,000 Unit Shipment 50.8% 88.5% 66.0% 0 Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Commercial Vehicles 796,000 672,000 100,200 Passenger Vehicles 820,500 1,728,000 774,800 2013 2020 Countries • The ASEAN automotive market is likely to grow at a CAGR of 6.2% from 3,216,366 units in 2013 to 4,891,500 units in 2020 driven by increased unit shipment in the 3 key markets of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. Indonesia is expected to become the largest automotive market in the region by 2020. • The passenger vehicle segment is likely to dominate the ASEAN market. While Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to continue their higher preference for the passenger vehicle segment in 2020, the key pick-up market in the region-Thailand -is also expected to witness a gradual shift to compact passenger vehicles due to the success of its eco-car program. Key: Graph in center represents data for 2020. Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2013. Source: Frost & Sullivan P7DB-18 8 Competitive Positioning of Key Industry Participants In Thailand and Indonesia, the automotive market is led by Japanese brands, whereas in Malaysia, national brands are market leaders. Total Automotive Market: Competitive Landscape, ASEAN, 2013 Market Share % Other Key (Top 3 Top-selling Region Top 3 Companies Companies Companies) Passenger Vehicles Toyota Hilux Toyota, Honda and Mitsubishi, Suzuki, Thailand 65.0% Isuzu D-Max Toyota Nissan Mazda Vios Toyota Avanza Toyota, Honda and Honda, Nissan, Indonesia 63.7% Daihatsu Xenia Suzuki Daihatsu Toyota Kijang Innova Proton, Perodua Honda, Nissan, Perodua Myvi, Proton Malaysia 65.0% and Toyota NAZA-KIA Saga, Perodua Viva Source: Frost & Sullivan P7DB-18 9 Comparative Analysis by Region and Segment Indonesia is expected to become the largest automotive market in ASEAN by 2020 with 2.4 million units. Total Automotive Market: Comparative Analysis by Region, ASEAN, 2013 Region Vehicle Demand by 2020 Top Passenger Vehicle Segments Demand growth: 1.3 M units (2013) to Pick -ups most popular but shift in market Thailand 1.6 M units in 2020 preference to compact fuel -efficient cars Demand growth: 1.2 M units (2013) to MPVs and SUVs are most popular but Indonesia 2.4 M units in 2020 shifting preference toward fuel -efficient cars Demand growth: 0.7 M units (2013) to Continued preference for cars with engine Malaysia nearly 0.9 M units in 2020 capacity 1,300cc –1,800cc most preferred Source: Frost & Sullivan P7DB-18 10 Key Findings and Future Outlook The ASEAN automotive market and vehicle production set to grow at a CAGR of 6.2% and 8.6%, respectively, from 2013 to 2020. Thailand to be the international production hub and Indonesia to be the largest automotive market in the region by 2020. Total Automotive Market: Current and Future Outlook, ASEAN, 2013 and 2020 Parameters Current Outlook (2013) Future Outlook (2020) The year 2013 was a record-breaking year in the ASEAN automotive market with a y-o-y growth of 1.1% and a The ASEAN automotive market is expected to grow steadily at a sales volume of 3.2 million units. Indonesia witnessed CAGR of 6.2% reaching sales volume of 4.9 million units in 2020. Market Status increased sales, whereas Thailand experienced a 7.4% Indonesia is likely to surpass Thailand as the largest automotive drop in sales over 2012 but continued to be largest market in ASEAN. automotive market in ASEAN. Automotive production in ASEAN is expected to grow at a CAGR ASEAN registered vehicle production of 4.3 million units in of 8.6% to reach 7.6 million units in 2020. Thailand is likely to 2013 led by Thailand with 2.5 million units, Indonesia with continue its dominance as a major production hub for both pick- Production 1.2 million units, and Malaysia with 0.6 million units. ups and compact, fuel-efficient passenger cars. Indonesia is Volumes Thailand remained the largest production hub due to its expected to get significant boost in the coming years with several eco-car program and other attractive incentives under the new production or expansion projects taking place. Malaysia is to program . experience increased production due to newline establishment for locally assembled EEVs. Japanese companies to continue to dominate Thailand and Japanese car makers Toyota, Honda, and Nissan are Indonesia markets. OEMs to create intense competition with market leaders in Thailand and Indonesia. In Malaysia, Competition aggressive promotions and new product offerings within the national car makers Proton and Perodua dominate the domestic market. In Malaysia, national brands market share to market. fall as Japanese and other OEMs grab more share of the market. Passenger vehicles are emerging as the key segment in ASEAN. In Thailand, though pick-ups continue to be the Passenger vehicles to continue to be the key vehicle segment in Key Vehicle most popular, smaller fuel-efficient eco-cars are gaining ASEAN with increased popularity of hybrid vehicles and electric Segments preference. In Indonesia, MPVs and hatchback city cars vehicles. Smaller compact and environment-friendly, fuel-efficient are preferred, whereas in Malaysia, the sedan segment is vehicles to have greater preference and demand. most preferred. Source: Frost & Sullivan P7DB-18 11 .
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