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UMW Holdings | 18 June 2013 (Member of Alliance Bank Group)

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UMW Holdings | 18 June 2013 (Member of Alliance Bank Group) Initiating Coverage Initiating Coverage | UMW Holdings | 18 June 2013 (Member of Alliance Bank group) PP7766/03/2013 (032116) UMW Holdings Neutral Automotive Bloomberg Ticker: UMWH MK | Bursa Code: 4588 18 June 2013 Analyst Angeline Chin Positives mostly priced-in [email protected] +603 2604 3911 We initiate coverage on UMW Holdings Berhad (UMW) with a NEUTRAL rating and TP of RM13.60. While fundamentals have been improving particularly the oil & gas division, we believe most of the positives have already been priced-in given its strong price 12-month upside potential performance over past year. UMW is currently trading at CY13 and CY14 P/E of 16x and Target price 13.60 14x, respectively which are at premium to peers. On the other hand, we believe Current price (as at 17 Jun) 14.60 intensifying competition in the auto sector in the near term may negatively affect UMW’s Capital upside (%) -6.8 automotive segment and offset gains to be made in other segments. Net dividends (%) 3.9 Total return (%) -2.9 Intensifying competition in the auto sector We believe the local automotive industry has become increasingly more dynamic and Key stock information competitive; especially the non-national car segment. Toyota and its two other major Syariah-compliant? Yes Japan automaker rivals, Honda and Nissan, have been aggressive in their marketing Market Cap (RM m) 17,057.1 effort to recapture lost market share from US, European and South Korean marques. Shares outstanding (m) 1,168.3 The recent launch of Nissan Almera into the highly competitive B-segment market is Free float (%) 33.5 expected to intensify competition in the market, both national and non-national 52-week high / low (RM) 14.72 / 8.43 3-mth avg volume ('000) 2,122.0 segment. 3-mth avg turnover (RM m) 29.4 NAP review will lead to wait and see by potential car buyers Share price performance Another revision of the National Automotive Policy (NAP) is expected to be announced 1M 3M 6M in 2013 whereby more liberalisation measures may be undertaken. Absolute (%) 4.4 9.8 23.1 For the time being, potential car buyers may adopt a wait and see approach in view of Relative (%) 4.1 1.1 15.3 the impending new NAP, which could see the gradual reduction in import tax and excise duty, in our view. Share price chart Unlocking oil & gas value via an IPO UMW plans to list its oil & gas unit by 4Q this year. The group will divest 39% of its stake and retain a 61% stake in the soon-to-be listed company, UMW-OG Group. We believe the listing will unlock the value of its investment in oil & gas assets and the proceeds could be utilised to pare down borrowings (assuming UMW will undertake offer for sale). To note, UMW will recognise a one-off disposal gain from the listing of its O&G division. That said, earnings contribution would drop due to reduced equity holding post the IPO. 11.5% earnings CAGR over next 3 years We expect UMW to post an 11.5% earnings CAGR over the next 3 years, mainly driven by its oil & gas division. Major shareholders % The PBT contribution from oil & gas segment will increase by 183%, 57% and 23% in Permodalan Nasional Berhad 42.5 FY13, FY14 and FY15, respectively. Employees Provident Fund 14.0 The earnings growth is mainly supported by (1) new drilling rigs coming on stream i.e. NAGA 4 in FY13 and NAGA 5 in FY14, and (2) higher charter rate for rigs upon contract renewal. Valuation and recommendation UMW has significantly outperformed the FBMKLCI over the last 12 months. We believe further share price appreciation is now limited as most positives have been priced-in. UMW is currently trading at CY13 and CY14 P/E of 16x and 14x, respectively which are at premium to its peers as well as almost 2 standard deviations above its mean P/E of 12x. Our sum-of-parts derived target price of RM13.60, implies potential downside risk of - 2.9% (after taking into consideration the dividend yield of 3.9%). With that, we rate UMW as NEUTRAL. All required disclosure and analyst certification appear on the last two pages of this report. Additional information is available upon request. Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission Initiating Coverage | UMW Holdings | 18 June 2013 SNAPSHOT OF FINANCIAL AND VALUATION METRICS Figure 1 : Key financial data FYE 31 Dec FY11 FY12 FY13F FY14F FY15F Revenue (RM m) 13,535.8 15,863.6 16,372.2 17,269.2 18,066.6 EBITDA (RM m) 1,905.4 2,102.8 2,288.6 2,473.1 2,608.7 EBIT (RM m) 1,607.8 1,817.4 1,978.0 2,128.1 2,234.0 Pretax profit (RM m) 1,381.5 2,009.7 2,143.3 2,330.1 2,490.9 Reported net profit (RM m) 502.1 994.3 1,097.7 1,213.8 1,306.8 Core net profit (RM m) 836.7 941.9 1,097.7 1,213.8 1,306.8 EPS (sen) 43.0 85.1 94.0 103.9 111.9 Core EPS (sen) 71.7 80.6 94.0 103.9 111.9 Alliance / Consensus (%) 101.7 103.3 105.3 Core EPS growth (%) 42.1 12.4 16.5 10.6 7.7 P/E (x) 20.4 18.1 15.5 14.1 13.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.6 8.7 8.1 7.5 7.0 ROE (%) 11.8 20.5 20.7 20.9 20.6 Net gearing (%) 8.8 10.1 7.1 6.7 8.0 Net DPS (sen) 31.0 50.0 56.4 62.3 67.1 Net dividend yield (%) 2.1 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.6 BV/share (RM) 3.64 4.15 4.54 4.97 5.43 P/B (x) 4.0 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.7 Source: Alliance Research, Bloomberg Figure 2 : 12-month forward P/E trend Figure 3 : 12-month forward P/B trend P/E (x) P/E Average P/E +1/-1 SD +2/-2 SD P/BV Average P/BV +1/-1 SD +2 / -2 SD P/BV (x) 19 3.5 17 3.0 15 2.5 13 11 2.0 9 1.5 7 5 1.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009 2012 2010 2011 2013 Source: Alliance Research, Bloomberg Source: Alliance Research, Bloomberg 2 Initiating Coverage | UMW Holdings | 18 June 2013 Figure 4 : Peer comparison EPS Growth Net Dividend Local Target Share Mkt Cap (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) ROE (%) Yield (%) Company Call Currency price price (USD m) CY13 CY14 CY13 CY14 CY13 CY14 CY13 CY14 CY13 CY14 Malaysia UMW Holdings Neutral RM 13.60 14.60 17,057.1 16.5 10.6 15.5 14.1 3.2 2.9 20.7 20.9 3.9 4.3 Tan Chong Motors NR RM NR 6.71 4,380.4 109.5 16.2 13.2 11.4 2.0 1.8 16.6 16.9 2.2 2.4 DRB-Hicom NR RM NR 2.76 5,335.7 -69.5 12.6 11.5 10.2 0.7 0.7 5.9 7.1 1.9 2.2 Average 14.6 11.9 14.4 12.9 2.5 2.3 17.1 17.5 3.2 3.6 China/Hong Kong SAIC Motor Corporation NR RMB NR 14.17 25,507.3 11.9 12.0 6.7 6.0 1.1 1.0 17.2 16.9 3.9 4.3 Great Wall Motor Co Ltd NR HKD NR 33.35 15,262.5 24.5 16.1 11.3 9.7 3.0 2.5 28.6 27.5 2.4 2.8 Dongfeng Motor Group NR HKD NR 11.42 12,680.5 7.6 7.4 7.9 7.4 1.2 1.1 16.5 15.2 1.8 2.0 WeiChai Power NR HKD NR 25.75 6,564.1 21.7 17.0 11.1 9.5 1.4 1.2 13.4 13.9 1.4 1.5 Brilliance China Automotive 5,615.4 28.6 22.2 11.6 9.5 2.7 2.1 25.4 24.2 0.4 0.5 Holdings NR HKD NR 8.67 Guangzhou Automobile Group NR HKD NR 8.02 7,974.0 116.7 44.6 16.2 11.2 1.2 1.1 7.8 10.3 1.8 2.4 Geely Automobile NR HKD NR 3.64 3,880.9 11.9 17.6 9.5 8.1 1.6 1.3 17.8 18.0 1.4 1.6 Zhongsheng Group NR HKD NR 8.72 2,144.7 67.9 37.6 10.5 7.6 1.5 1.3 15.2 17.5 1.8 2.5 Baoxin Auto Group NR HKD NR 6.20 2,043.3 120.7 33.3 9.2 6.9 2.4 1.8 29.6 31.2 1.6 2.3 China ZhengTong Auto Service NR HKD NR 4.18 1,190.5 56.6 33.3 7.7 5.8 1.0 0.8 13.2 15.3 0.1 0.3 Sinotruck HK NR HKD NR 4.05 1,441.0 350.0 51.1 17.8 11.8 0.5 0.4 2.8 4.0 1.5 2.0 Average 35.8 18.6 9.8 8.1 1.7 1.4 18.5 18.4 2.4 2.7 Indonesia Astra International NR IDR NR 6,950 28,449.0 3.0 14.5 14.1 12.3 3.4 3.0 25.4 25.0 3.3 3.7 Indomobil Sukses Int'l NR IDR NR 5,200 1,453.9 14.9 33.6 15.6 11.7 2.4 2.1 15.4 16.4 1.1 1.3 Average 3.6 15.4 14.1 12.3 3.4 2.9 24.9 24.6 3.1 3.6 Source: Alliance Research, Bloomberg Share price date: 17 June 2013 3 Initiating Coverage | UMW Holdings | 18 June 2013 BACKGROUND INFORMATION Leader in Malaysia’s automotive industry UMW Holdings Berhad (UMW) is a leading industrial enterprise which focuses on four strategic businesses namely, automotive, equipment, manufacturing & engineering and oil & gas industries.
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