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New Poll: Louisiana Presidential, Governor 2015, Landrieu Reelect

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New Poll: Louisiana Presidential, Governor 2015, Landrieu Reelect FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: John Diez October 8, 2012 (225) 647-7557 New Poll: Louisiana Presidential, Governor 2015, Landrieu Reelect Baton Rouge, LA – Magellan Strategies BR today released the survey results of an automated survey of 2,682 likely voters. The survey was conducted October 2nd through October 4th. The margin of error for a survey of this size is 1.9%. The study measures voter opinion among a wide array of issues and election contests, including the upcoming Presidential, 2014 U.S. Senate and 2015 Gubernatorial matchups. The survey finds Mitt Romney leading President Obama by 22 points (59% Romney/36% Obama/5% undecided). The presidential ballot tracks very closely to the 2008 presidential election results (58.6% McCain/39.9% Obama). Also tested was the upcoming 2014 U.S. Senate race. The survey finds that over 50% of respondents would prefer a new candidate over current U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu. Only 32.7% of those questioned would definitely vote to reelect Louisiana’s senior Senator. In a hypothetical matchup for the 2015 Louisiana gubernatorial contest, U.S. Senator David Vitter leads a field of six potential candidates. Vitter and New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu were the only tested candidates to receive more than ten percent support. Additionally in a head-to-head matchup, Vitter leads Landrieu by over 5 percentage points (45.2% Vitter/39.8% Landrieu/15% Undecided). Magellan ID#: LASTW-100112 Page 2 of 7 Field Dates: 10/02-10/04/2012, MOE +/-1.9%, 2682n Louisiana Statewide TOPLINES MAGELLAN ID#: LASTW-100112 Sample Size = 2,682n; +/-1.9% Field Date: 10/2 - 10/4/2010 Hello, this is ________________ of a political research firm. We’re conducting a quick survey with people in LOUISIANA this evening and would like to ask you a few questions on a confidential basis 1. How likely are you to vote in the elections for President of the United States? EXTREMELY LIKELY 94.3% VERY LIKELY 4.0% SOMEWHAT LIKELY 1.6% 2. Would you say things in the COUNTRY are going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track? RIGHT DIRECTION 36.9% WRONG TRACK 63.1% 3. If the election for U.S. CONGRESS was being held today, and all you knew about the two candidates was that one was a Republican and the other was a Democrat, for whom would you vote? REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE 46.5% DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE 32.5% UNDECIDED 21.0% Magellan ID#: LASTW-100112 Page 3 of 7 Field Dates: 10/02-10/04/2012, MOE +/-1.9%, 2682n T Thinking now about the up-coming election for President of the United States... 4. If the election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were MITT ROMNEY, Republican, or BARACK OBAMA, Democrat? MITT ROMNEY 58.8% BARACK OBAMA 36.2% UNDECIDED 4.9% 5. Did you watch last night’s Presidential debate? YES 82.8% NO 17.2% 6. In your opinion, which candidate do you think won the debate? MITT ROMNEY 65.0% BARACK OBAMA 25.5% UNDECIDED 9.4% T And thinking ahead to the 2015 election for Governor in Louisiana. 7. If the election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were DAVID VITTER, REPUBLICAN, MITCH LANDRIEU DEMOCRAT; JAY DARDENNE, REPUBLICAN; JOHN KENNEDY, REPUBLICAN; MIKE STRAIN, REPUBLICAN and JOHN GEORGES, DEMOCRAT? DAVID VITTER 31.1% MITCH LANDRIEU 29.4% JAY DARDENNE 6.5% JOHN KENNEDY 7.2% MIKE STRAIN 3.1% JOHN GEORGES 6.0% UND/SOMEONE ELSE 16.7% Magellan ID#: LASTW-100112 Page 4 of 7 Field Dates: 10/02-10/04/2012, MOE +/-1.9%, 2682n And still thinking ahead to the 2015 election for Governor in Louisiana. 8. If the election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were DAVID VITTER, REPUBLICAN and MITCH LANDRIEU DEMOCRAT? DAVID VITTER 45.2% MITCH LANDRIEU 39.8% UNDECIDED 15.0% 9. When voting for a candidate for the U.S. CONGRESS, which issue position is most important to you: Their position on fiscal issues like taxes and spending, or their position on social issues like abortion and gay marriages? FISCAL ISSUES 66.6% SOCIAL ISSUES 21.4% UNDECIDED 11.9% 10. And do you approve or disapprove of the job that DAVID VITTER is doing as U.S. SENATOR? APPROVE 59.1% DISAPPROVE 33.2% UNSURE/NO OPINION 7.7% 11. And do you approve or disapprove of the job that JAY DARDENNE is doing as LT. GOVERNOR? APPROVE 40.0% DISAPPROVE 21.3% UNSURE/NO OPINION 38.7% Magellan ID#: LASTW-100112 Page 5 of 7 Field Dates: 10/02-10/04/2012, MOE +/-1.9%, 2682n And changing topics for a second… 12. Do you believe that Mary Landrieu has performedher job as U.S. Senatorwell enough to deserve to be re-elected or do you think it is time to give a new person a chance? RE-ELECT 39.5% NEW PERSON 50.8% UNDECIDED 9.7% DEFINITELY REELECT 32.7% PROBABLY REELECT 6.8% DEFINITELY NEW PERSON 42.2% PROBABLY NEW PERSON 8.6% 13. Which of the following two options do you think is the best approach to creating jobs and growing the economy? Reducing tax rates on businesses both large and small, or increasing taxes on the wealthy and investing more federal dollars in government job creation programs? REDUCE TAX RATES 53.8% INCREASE TAXES FOR 36.5% WEALTHY UNSURE/NO OPINION 9.6% Magellan ID#: LASTW-100112 Page 6 of 7 Field Dates: 10/02-10/04/2012, MOE +/-1.9%, 2682n 14-15. Do you consider yourself conservative, moderate or liberal on fiscal issues like taxes and government spending? CONSERVATIVE 55.4% MODERATE 33.8% LIBERAL 10.8% VERY CONSERVATIVE 39.3% SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE 16.1% 16-17. Do you consider yourself conservative, moderate or liberal on social issues like same sex marriage and abortion? CONSERVATIVE 52.8% MODERATE 29.2% LIBERAL 18.1% VERY CONSERVATIVE 41.8% SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE 11.0% These last few questions are for statistical purposes only. 18. Are you male or female? MALE 45.0% FEMALE 55.0% 19. Regardless of how you feel today, with which party are you registered to vote? REPUBLICAN 34.6% DEMOCRAT 53.4% INDEPENDENT/OTHER 12.0% Magellan ID#: LASTW-100112 Page 7 of 7 Field Dates: 10/02-10/04/2012, MOE +/-1.9%, 2682n 20. And regardless of how you are registered to vote, which party best represents your point of view on issues important to you? REPUBLICAN 60.8% DEMOCRAT 39.2% 21. Which of the following age group applies to you? 18-34 10.0% 35-44 14.0% 45-54 22.0% 55-64 24.0% 65+ 30.0% 22. For statistical purposes only, what is your race? WHITE 70.0% BLACK OR AFRICAN AMERICAN 25.0% HISPANIC OR LATINO 1.1% OTHER 3.9% Louisiana Statewide Survey Survey of 2,862 likely voters conducted October 2-4, 2012 MOE=+/-1.9% 2012 Presidential Ballot If the election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were MITT ROMNEY, Republican, or BARACK OBAMA, Democrat? 5% 36% 59% MITT ROMNEY BARACK OBAMA UNDECIDED If the election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were MITT ROMNEY, Republican, or BARACK OBAMA, Democrat? 94% 73% 61% 62% 59% 35% 31% 29% 20% 10% 6% 7% 7% 4% 2% GOP IND DEM WHT DEM WHT IND MITT ROMNEY BARACK OBAMA UNDECIDED If the election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were MITT ROMNEY, Republican, or BARACK OBAMA, Democrat? 88% 79% 63% 56% 39% 33% 16% 8% 4% 6% 5% 4% MALE FEMALE WHITE BLACK MITT ROMNEY BARACK OBAMA UNDECIDED If the election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were MITT ROMNEY, Republican, or BARACK OBAMA, Democrat? 92% 70% 69% 69% 70% 65% 31% 26% 27% 25% 23% 7% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5 CD 6 MITT ROMNEY BARACK OBAMA UNDECIDED Mary Landrieu Reelect Do you believe that Mary Landrieu has performed her job as U.S. Senator well enough to deserve to be re-elected or do you think it is time to give a new person a chance? 10% 40% 51% REELECT NEW PERSON UND Do you believe that Mary Landrieu has performed her job as U.S. Senator well enough to deserve to be re-elected or do you think it is time to give a new person a chance? 78% 61% 58% 55% 47% 43% 32% 32% 27% 14% 12% 12% 9% 10% 10% GOP IND DEM WHT DEM WHT IND REELECT NEW PERSON UND Do you believe that Mary Landrieu has performed her job as U.S. Senator well enough to deserve to be re-elected or do you think it is time to give a new person a chance? 72% 63% 57% 46% 43% 36% 27% 18% 11% 10% 10% 8% MALE FE- MALE WHT BLK REELECT NEW PERSON UND Do you believe that Mary Landrieu has performed her job as U.S. Senator well enough to deserve to be re-elected or do you think it is time to give a new person a chance? 75% 65% 57% 56% 58% 49% 42% 32% 32% 33% 27% 17% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 8% CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5 CD 6 REELECT NEW PERSON UND 2015 Gubernatorial Ballot If the election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were DAVID VITTER, REPUBLICAN, MITCH LANDRIEU DEMOCRAT; JAY DARDENNE, REPUBLICAN; JOHN KENNEDY, REPUBLICAN; MIKE STRAIN, REPUBLICAN and JOHN GEORGES, DEMOCRAT? 17% 31% 6% 3% 7% 6% 29% DAVID VITTER MITCH LANDRIEU JAY DARDENNE JOHN KENNEDY MIKE STRAIN JOHN GEORGES UND/SOMEONE ELSE If the election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were DAVID VITTER, REPUBLICAN, MITCH LANDRIEU DEMOCRAT; JAY DARDENNE, REPUBLICAN; JOHN KENNEDY, REPUBLICAN; MIKE STRAIN, REPUBLICAN and JOHN GEORGES, DEMOCRAT? 52% 47% 32% 32% 31% 28% 24% 23% 22% 17% 19% 18% 18% 15% 11% 10%10% 9% 7% 8% 6% 7% 5% 4% 5% GOP IND DEM WHT DEM WHT IND DAVID VITTER MITCH LANDRIEU JAY DARDENNE JOHN KENNEDY MIKE STRAIN JOHN GEORGES UND/SOMEONE ELSE If the election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were DAVID VITTER, REPUBLICAN, MITCH LANDRIEU DEMOCRAT; JAY DARDENNE, REPUBLICAN; JOHN KENNEDY, REPUBLICAN; MIKE STRAIN, REPUBLICAN and JOHN GEORGES, DEMOCRAT? 61% 40% 33% 32% 30%
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