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2016 Belmont Checklist and Selections Handicapping the 2016 Belmont Stakes by Stanley Caris

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2016 Belmont Checklist and Selections Handicapping the 2016 Belmont Stakes by Stanley Caris Stan Caris’s 2016 Belmont Checklist and Selections Handicapping the 2016 Belmont Stakes by Stanley Caris I consider the following 5 horses to be the Lani closed ground strongly in the Preak- ingnews and Lani. most likely winners of the Belmont: ness and just misses qualifying on my final fraction indicator. He carries the strong Trifecta Recommendation: Governor Exaggerator is our checklist leader but conduit mare Frizette in tail female. Malibu in the win position with Exag- his last two races may have taken some- gerator, Brody’s Cause, Suddenbreak- thing out of him. He just might be worn I consider the next three runners to be ingnews, Lani, Stradivari, Creator and out a bit after a tough campaign. candidates to run second, third or fourth: Trojan Nation in the place and show po- sitions. Governor Malibu is second choice on my Stradavari has tactical speed and carries checklist and achieved a fast final 3/8 in the strong conduit mare, Renaissance, in Trifecta Recommendation: Brody’s Cause the Peter Pan. He qualifies on Belmont tail female. in the win position with the other 7 horses Indicator #2 which is my Buckpasser in listed above in the place and show posi- the X passing position angle. Historically Creator qualifies on my final fraction in- tions. that indicator has a very solid impact val- dicator and is bred to run all day. ue of 2.79 in the Belmont stakes. Superfecta Recommendation: Governor Trojan Nation is bred well for distance Malibu in the win position with the other Brody’s Cause- almost qualifies on my and carries Buckpasser in the X passing 7 horses listed above in the place, show final fraction indicator and carries the position. and fourth position. strong conduit mare, Bill and Coo in tail female. He beat Exaggerator last year in Longshot Recommendations: Governor Superfecta Recommendation: Brody’s the Breeders Futurity and in the BC Juve- Malibu, Suddenbreakingnews, Brody’s Cause in the win position with the other 7 nile at Keeneland. Cause and Lani. horses listed above in the place, show and fourth position. Suddenbreakingnews qualifies on my fi- Exacta Recommendations: An exacta box nal fraction indicator and in my opinion of the following 4 horses: Governor is the best of the deep closers in this field. Malibu, Brody’s Cause, Suddenbreak- Belmont Checklist 2016 F92 BU RF RN/ND ES CM Total Conduit Mare Exaggerator 2 0 4 0 2 0 8 Governor Malibu 2 3 0 0 0 0 5 Suddenbreakingnews 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 Cherry Wine 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 Creator 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 Gettysburg 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lani 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Frizette Destin 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Brody's Cause 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Bill and Coo Stradivari 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Renaissance Trojan Nation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Query Forever D'Oro 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Seeking The Soul 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Codes for the 6 Belmont Indicators Note: I have made an addition to fraction time. Any loss of ground in the points to all horses carrying the Raise A the 7th rule under Belmont Indicator Kentucky Derby is acceptable. 4) the run- Native sire line provided that they qualify #1. That rule now reads as follows: the ner must be no worse than fourth in its on all rules found in Belmont Indicator runner must not be a frontrunner in the last start unless it was the Kentucky Derby #1. race that qualifies it on final fraction time 5) If the runner was worse than fourth in unless it shows the ability to gain ground the Kentucky Derby it must be no worse Belmont Indicator #4 RN/ND= Give from the 6 furlong point to the finish of than third in its first start after the Der- 5 points to all horses that carry the Raise another 9 furlong race. by or in its last start before the Kentucky A Native Sireline and the Northern Danc- Derby 6) the runner must be no worse er Broodmare Sireline if they qualify on Belmont Indicator 1 F92 = Give 2 than fourth in its race that qualifies it on all rules found in Belmont Indicator #1. points to all runners that achieve the fol- final fraction times. 7) the runner must lowing: 1) A final eighth of a mile in 12 not be the frontrunner in the race that Belmont Indicator #5 ES= Give 2 3/5 or less or a final 3 furlongs in 37 4/5 qualifies it on final fraction time unless it points to all horses that within 3 ½ lengths or less in a graded stake at 9 furlongs at shows the ability to gain ground from the of the leader at the six furlong call of a 9 age 3 or a final quarter of the Kentucky 6 furlong point to the finish of another 9 furlong graded stake or were within 3 ½ Derby in 25 2/5 or less or a final 3/16 of furlong race 8) races over polytracks were lengths of the leader of the Preakness at the Preakness in 19 1/5 or less. 2) the run- omitted from this study the mile call provided that they also qual- ner must have a 92 or higher Beyer figure ify on all the rules found in Belmont In- in at least one of its last two graded stakes Belmont Indicator #2 BU= Give 3 dicator #1. at 9 furlongs or more 3)the runner must points to all horses that carry Buckpass- not show a loss of ground of 2 lengths or er in the X passing position if they also Belmont Indicator #6 CM= Give 2 more from the 6 furlong call to the finish qualify on all rules found in Belmont In- points to all runners that carry one of of a 9 furlong stake or from the mile call dicator #1. our special conduit mares in tail-female to the finish of the Preakness if either of provided that they qualify on all the rules these races are used to qualify it on final Belmont Indicator #3 RF= Give 4 found in Belmont Indicator #1. As an aid to racing fans, the following table contains a list of horses nominated to the 2016 Triple Crown who also carry Buckpasser in the X passing position. TABLE FOR DERBY INDICATOR #7 - 2016 DERBY, TABLE FOR DERBY INDICATOR #8 - CONDUIT MARES WHOSE PREAKNESS, BELMONT POSSIBLES WHO CARRY TAIL-FEMALE LINE GIVES RISE TO AT LEAST ONE WINNER OF A BUCKPASSER IN THE X PASSING POSITION TRIPLE CROWN RACE AND AT LEAST ONE OTHER NOTEWORTHY THOROUGHBRED Adios Reality Ganges Riddler Air Force Blue Goats Town Saratoga Mischief Conduit Mare Winners Noteworthy Thoroughbreds Airmans Creed Harlan Punch Seeking The Soul Affection Coastal (B), Crème Fraiche (B) Levee and Shuvee Annual Report Highly Prized Shakhimat Altoviscar Shackleford (P), Round Table and Go For Wand Avast Matey Knights Key Smokey Image Americus Girl Risen Star (P) (B), Mahmoud and Nasrullah Awesome Slew Luna De Loco Southside Warrior Artless Monarchos (D), Dynaformer and Zenyatta Awesome Speed Mighty Moses Street Vision Audience Venetian Way (D), Timber Country (P) and Fall Aspen Charmed Victory Mt Veeder Swipe Ballancoire Determine (D), Equipoise, Intentionally and Seabiscuit Collected Our Track That Makes Sense Bill and Coo Secretariat (D) (P) (B), Elocutionist (P), Somethingroyal Danebury Outwork Tiznoble Broom Flower Mine That Bird (D) and I’ll Have Another (D) (P) Discreetly Firm Percolator Uncle Lino Cherokee Rose Fusaichi Pegasus (D), Pine Bluff (P), Jaipur (B), Orb (D) and Ruffian Discreetness Picadilly Roadster Virtual Machine Chit Chat Grindstone (D), Arts and Letters (B), Pass Catcher (B) Dissident Pinnacle Peak Zulu Alpha Countess Wanda California Chrome (D) (P), Swaps (D), Iron Liege (D), Althea Doctor Mounty Pinstripe Zulu Court Dress Charismatic (D) (P), Go and Go (B), and Deputy Minister Northern Dancer (D) (P), Spectacular Bid (D) (P), Cannonade (D), Halo, French Getaway Prospectus Dazzling Tosmah, and Danehill Super Saver (D), Smarty Jones (D) (P), Go For Gin (D) Sea Hero (D), Using the information in William Lathrop’s book – Modern Doxa Spend A Buck (D), Prairie Bayou (P), Personality (P), Easy Goer (B) Conduit Mares – I compiled a list of 44 outstanding conduit and Buckpasser Epitaph Union Rags (B) and Colonial Affair (B) mares whose tail female line gave rise to at least one winner Face A Main Street Sense (D) and Count Turf (D) of a Triple Crown race, and at least one other noteworthy Fine Feathers Barbaro (D) and Chateuagay (D), Little Current ( P) (B) steed. Many of the all-time great thoroughbreds (Dr. Fager, Fricassee Unbridled (D) and Dr. Fager Secretariat, Buckpasser, Native Dancer, Ruffian, Spectacular Frizette Seattle Slew (D) (P) (B), Ferdinand (D) and Mr. Prospector Bid, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, and Zenyatta) carried mt-DNA Gallice Dust Commander (D) and Tom Fool from conduit mares found in Table 1. Glacier Citation (D) (P) (B) and Davona Dale Grace Commoner Forward Pass (D), Codex (P), Alydar and Grand Slam Herself Tom Rolfe (P), Bee Bee Bee (P) and Ack Ack La Venganza Bold Forbes (D) (B), Bet Twice (B) and Forego Lygie Danzig Connection (B), Decidedly (D) and Omaha (D)(P)(B) Macaroon Alysheba (D, P) and Kelso Marchetta Celtic Ash (B), My Babu and Turn-To Miss Fiora Native Dancer (P) (B) and Grey Flight Nature Affirmed (D)(P) (B), Lil E Tee (D) and Ghostzapper Offensive Victory Gallop (B) and Bally Ache (P) Ophirdale Whirlaway (D) (P) (B) and Conquistador Cielo (B) Paroraison Nashua (P) (B) and Louis Quatorze (P) Petit Bleu Funny Cide (D)(P), Empire Maker (B), and Alibhai Plucky Liege Commendable (B), Fappiano, Quiet American, Sir Gallahad III Popinjay Swale (D)(B) and Alphabet Soup Query Hail To All (B) and Sword Dancer (P )(B) Rambling Rose Lemon Drop Kid (B), AP Indy (B) and Summer Squall (P) Remembrance Avatar (B), Afleet Alex (P)(B) and Run the Gauntlet Renaissance Touch Gold (B) and With Approval Sanctuary Tim Tam (D) (P), Winning Colors (D) and Chris Evert Simons Shoes Big Brown (D)(P), Nureyev and Sadler’s Wells Solirena Deputed Testimony (P), Tanks Prospect (P) and In Reality Tribonyx Majestic Prince (D) (P), Real Quiet (D) (P) and Graustark Torpenhow Jazil (B), Rags to Riches (B) and Nijinsky IIz.
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