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Green, Pink & Silver? GREEN, PINK & SILVER? GREEN, PINK & SILVER? THE FUTURE OF LABOUR IN EUROPE VOL. 2 EDITORS MIROSLAV BEBLAVÝ ILARIA MASELLI MARCELA VESELKOVÁ CONTRIBUTORS ATTILA BARTHA WILLI HAAS MIROSLAV BEBLAVÝ CHRISTOPHE HEYNDRICKX IAIN BEGG NICHOLAS HORSEWOOD ARNO BEHRENS SILVIA HUDÁČKOVÁ SERGIO CARRERA AGNIESZKA KAMIŃSKA BERT COLIJN IGA MAGDA KEES DOL FRITS MEIJER JOHN DOLING VERA MESSING KATHARINA EISELE JOKO PURWANTO MARJA ELSINGA MAREK RADVANSKÝ OLENA FEDYUK ANNA RUZIK-SIERDZIÑSKA MARINA FISCHER-KOWALSKI TOMÁŠ SIROVÁTKA RODRIC FREDERIX ERIKA SCHULZ JOHANNES GEYER HENK VISSCHER BENT GREVE DOMINIK WIEDENHOFER MICHAELA GSTREIN VIOLETTA ZENTAI ELSPETH GUILD CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES (CEPS) BRUSSELS The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) is an independent policy research institute in Brussels. Its mission is to produce sound policy research leading to constructive solutions to the challenges facing Europe. The views expressed in this book are entirely those of the authors and should not be attributed to CEPS, the European Union or to any other institution with which they are associated. ISBN 978-94-6138-444-7 © Copyright 2015, Centre for European Policy Studies and the authors. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior permission of the Centre for European Policy Studies. Centre for European Policy Studies Place du Congrès 1, B-1000 Brussels Tel: (32.2) 229.39.11 Fax: (32.2) 219.41.51 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: www.ceps.eu TABLE OF CONTENTS (OVERVIEW) Preface.............................................................................................................................. i 1. Green, pink & silver? The future of labour in Europe Miroslav Beblavý, Silvia Hudáčková, Dominik Wiedenhofer, Willi Haas and Marina Fischer-Kowalski ................................................................................... 1 2. Limits of power: Energy, growth and employment Bert Colijn and Arno Behrens ................................................................................. 21 3. Biking to work? Transport policy, sustainability and employment Christophe Heyndrickx, Rodric Frederix and Joko Purwanto ................................... 45 4. Demand and supply of labour in the housing sector Kees Dol, John Doling, Marja Elsinga, Nicholas Horsewood, Frits Meijer and Henk Visscher .................................................................................................. 66 5. Ageing and job growth in healthcare and long-term care services Erika Schulz and Johannes Geyer ............................................................................ 82 6. Two faces of ageing: Older workers and older consumers Anna Ruzik-Sierdziñska and Marek Radvanský .................................................... 102 7. Women as workers – in the middle of a marathon Iga Magda and Agnieszka Kamińska ..................................................................... 128 8. A common labour immigration policy for the EU? Rethinking ‘attractiveness’ and socio-economic inclusion Sergio Carrera, Elspeth Guild and Katharina Eisele............................................... 152 9. Policy puzzles with the employment of Roma Vera Messing ....................................................................................................... 174 10. Social services as an option for sustainable employment growth Tomáš Sirovátka and Bent Greve .......................................................................... 197 11. Employment trends in childcare and social inclusion services Michaela Gstrein .................................................................................................. 221 12. Low-skilled migration: Immigrant workers in European domestic care Attila Bartha, Olena Fedyuk and Violetta Zentai .................................................. 237 13. The future of labour in Europe: Key messages for policy-makers Iain Begg .............................................................................................................. 258 List of Abbreviations.................................................................................................. 293 About the Editors ....................................................................................................... 295 About the Contributors ............................................................................................. 296 NEUJOBS Partner Institutes ...................................................................................... 298 Index ........................................................................................................................... 300 TABLE OF CONTENTS (IN DETAIL) Preface ............................................................................................................................. i 1. Green, pink & silver? The future of labour in Europe Miroslav Beblavý, Silvia Hudáčková, Dominik Wiedenhofer, Willi Haas and Marina Fischer-Kowalski ............................................................................. 1 1.1 Limits of power: Energy, growth and employment .....................................4 1.2 Biking to work? Transport policy, sustainability and employment ............5 1.3 Demand and supply of labour in the housing sector ...................................6 1.4 Ageing and job growth in healthcare and long-term care services .............8 1.5 Two faces of ageing: Older workers and older consumers..........................9 1.6 Women as workers – in the middle of a marathon .................................... 11 1.7 A common labour immigration policy for the EU? Rethinking ‘attractiveness’ and socio-economic inclusion ............................................ 12 1.8 Policy puzzles with the employment of Roma ........................................... 14 1.9 Social services as an option for sustainable employment growth ............. 15 1.10 Employment trends in childcare and social inclusion services ................. 16 1.11 Low-skilled migration: Immigrant workers in European domestic care .. 18 1.12 The future of labour in Europe: Key messages for policy-makers ............ 19 2. Limits of power: Energy, growth and employment Bert Colijn and Arno Behrens ............................................................................. 21 2.1 The energy system lies at the heart of the socio-ecological transition ...... 22 2.2 The importance of energy for economic growth is limited........................ 23 2.3 Decarbonisation of the EU economy is possible ......................................... 28 2.4 The macro effects of energy efficiency improvements on the labour market seem to be ambiguous ..................................................................... 30 2.5 Fewer than 1 in 100 employees in Europe work in the energy sector ....... 31 2.6 A positive net effect: Jobs destroyed in primary energy activities may be overcompensated by job creation in the power sector .................. 33 2.7 Projected future employment increases in the power sector are mainly due to the higher labour intensity of renewables ....................................... 36 2.8 The key to the impact of the SET on employment lies in the labour productivity of renewable energy sources.................................................. 37 Bibliography ......................................................................................................... 40 3. Biking to work? Transport policy, sustainability and employment Christophe Heyndrickx, Rodric Frederix and Joko Purwanto .......................... 45 3.1 The transport sector accounts for 4.5% of employment in the EU ............ 46 3.2 The transition away from fossil fuels will impact the transport sector .... 46 3.3 The socio-ecological transition will lead to GHG reductions and job creation ......................................................................................................... 48 3.4 Policies aimed at energy efficiency, cycling and public transit are most likely to boost both employment and sustainability ........................ 54 3.5 Behavioural policy is better suited to meet employment targets.............. 59 Bibliography ......................................................................................................... 61 4. Demand and supply of labour in the housing sector Kees Dol, John Doling, Marja Elsinga, Nicholas Horsewood, Frits Meijer and Henk Visscher................................................................................................ 66 4.1 Energy renovation is crucial to achieve energy-efficiency targets ............ 67 4.2 Employment in mortgage markets in 2025 will be the same as or lower than in 2007 ........................................................................................ 69 4.3 Home ownership influences small business formation, unemployment and retirement .............................................................................................. 73 4.4 The complexity of the relationships between the housing sector and labour markets poses difficult policy challenges ....................................... 76 Bibliography ......................................................................................................... 80 5. Ageing and job growth in healthcare and long-term care services Erika Schulz and Johannes Geyer ......................................................................
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