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Samsung Techwin -3.1 Other Avg Take a bottom-up approach Monthly InsighT 6 2015 Wonjae Park +822-768-3372 [email protected] Jonathan Hwang +822-768-4140 [email protected] Young Ryu +822-768-4138 [email protected] [email protected] Will Lee +822-768-4168 [email protected] Joon-ho Jang +822-768-3241 [email protected] Chuljoong Kim +822-768-4162 [email protected] Contents I. Key charts ..................................................... 3 II. Investment strategy ..................................................... 4 III. Sector view ................................................... 9 IV. Think big ................................................... 17 V. Global IT navigation ................................................... 25 Spotlight stocks & other notable stocks ...................... 27 I. Key charts Share performances & OP consensus revision rates PC DRAM (DDR3 4Gb 1,600MHz) spot and contract Semiconductor equipment book-to-bill ratios for the for Korean IT large caps (1M) prices have decreased US and Japan (%) Share performance (1M, L) (%) (US$)Spread (R) (%) US semiconductor Spot price (L) KDB Daewoo 20 2Q15 OP consensus revision rate (R) 5 5 60 3.0 Japan semiconductor April Contract price (L) forecasts Japan display US semiconductor: 1.04 10 3 50 Japan semiconductor: 0.96 4 Japan display 1.81 40 0 0 2.0 30 -20 3 -10 -3 20 1.0 -20 -5 10 2 0 1 -10 0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: WISEfn, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: DRAMeXchange, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: SEMI, SEAJ, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Panel inventories SEC smartphone shipments MSCI IT index performance by country (1/1/12=100) (weeks) (mn units) Galaxy Galaxy Galaxy Galaxy 1.5 IT 100 Note 2 Galaxy Note 3 S5 S6/Edge 220 MSCI US IT S4 Galaxy TV Note 4 MSCI Korea IT Galaxy 200 1.0 S3 80 MSCI Japan IT Galaxy 180 MSCI Taiwan IT 0.5 Note 60 160 0.0 Galaxy 140 40 S2 -0.5 Galaxy S 120 -1.0 20 100 -1.5 0 80 1/13 4/13 7/13 10/13 1/14 4/14 7/14 10/14 1/15 4/15 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1/12 7/12 1/13 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 Source: IHS, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Monthly InsighT 3 Monthly InsighT II. Investment strategy • Focus on companies boasting competitive edges II. Investment strategy KDB Daewoo IT universe share performance May: +3.2% for spotlight stocks vs. -6.3% for other notable stocks Monthly InsighT cumulative returns Avg. of spotlight stocks 3.2 Cumulative returns Wonik IPS 20.7 Avg. of spotlight stocks 28.1 Soulbrain 11.1 Avg. of other notable stocks -35.1 KOSPI 2.2 SK Hynix 10.7 KOSDAQ 24.8 (%) Sekonix 8.3 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 Amotech 4.1 Note: September 2014-May 2015 Spotlight Koh Young 1.1 Apr. stocks LGD -2.0 Avg. of spotlight stocks 3.2 Avg. of other notable stocks -6.3 Innox -5.8 KOSPI -0.6 SSC -7.7 KOSDAQ 3.2 (%) LGE -8.4 -10 -5 0 5 10 Avg. of other notable stocks -6.3 Mar. Samsung SDI 2.1 Avg. of spotlight stocks -4.6 Samsung Techwin -3.1 Other Avg. of other notable stocks -6.4 notable LG Innotek -4.9 stocks KOSPI 4.2 SEC -7.3 KOSDAQ 5.9 (%) SEMCO -18.2 (%) -10 -5 0 5 10 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Monthly InsighT 5 II. Investment strategy Focus on companies boasting competitive edges ■ IT market update - Semiconductor: DRAM contract price decline is showing signs of slowing, but Share performance & OP consensus revision rates for Korean IT large caps (1M) soft PC demand and elevated channel inventory levels point to further downside ahead; for NAND, the rise in spot prices is slowing amid narrowing spreads (%) Share performance (1M, L) (%) - Display: Panel prices have remained steady despite sluggish TV sales during 20 2Q15 OP consensus revision rate (R) 5 China’s Labor Day holidays, but sentiment seems to have worsened - Mobile: SEC’s Galaxy S6 and the S6 Edge are doing well, but market 10 3 expectations appear to have been too bullish - Demand: IT demand to rise on US economic recovery; Chinese demand, which 0 0 has been weak, is likely to improve gradually; new product/technology launches, Apple Watch, IoT, and FinTech, are positive for demand -10 -20 -3 -20 -5 ■ Strategy 1) Expectations for the Galaxy S6 and the S6 Edge need to be lowered; a more selective approach with regard to relevant beneficiaries is warranted 2) Focus on large caps with attractive valuations, small/mid-caps showing earnings growth ■ Spotlight stocks Source: WISEfn, KDB Daewoo Securities Research - Large caps: Samsung SDI, LGD, LGE, Samsung Techwin - Small/mid-caps: Wonik IPS, Humax, Amotech, IDIS, ABCO KDB Daewoo IT large-cap universe (W, %, x) Current Upside Share performance P/E P/B ROE Company Rating TP price (5/29) potential 1W 1M 15F 16F 15F 16F 15F 16F LGD Buy 43,000 29,250 47.0 -5.3 -2.0 6.0 9.1 0.8 0.7 14.3 8.5 LGE Buy 84,000 55,300 51.9 -2.8 -8.4 11.4 7.5 0.8 0.7 7.3 10.2 Samsung SDI Buy 175,000 122,500 42.9 0.4 2.1 23.9 20.7 0.7 0.7 3.1 3.5 Samsung Techwin Buy 33,000 26,850 22.9 4.1 -3.1 16.5 14.5 0.8 0.8 5.1 5.5 SEC Buy 1,850,000 1,307,000 41.5 -3.2 -7.3 9.5 8.6 1.2 1.0 13.6 13.2 SK Hynix Buy 64,000 51,100 25.2 6.8 10.7 7.6 6.7 1.6 1.3 24.0 21.9 SEMCO Buy 82,000 55,200 48.6 -13.8 -18.2 19.1 13.7 0.9 0.9 4.8 6.5 LG Inntek Buy 136,000 95,100 43.0 -6.3 -4.9 12.0 8.7 1.2 1.1 10.5 12.9 SSC Buy 23,500 17,900 31.3 -2.7 -7.7 54.1 18.4 1.8 1.7 3.4 9.5 Source: WISEfn, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Monthly InsighT 6 II. Investment strategy Earnings forecast revisions for large caps in the KDB Daewoo IT universe (Wbn, %) Previous Revised % chg. Notes 2Q15F 2015F 2016F 2Q15F 2015F 2016F 2Q15F 2015F 2016F LGD Revenue 6,773 29,080 27,483 6,773 29,080 27,483 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 567 2,413 1,569 567 2,413 1,569 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 457 1,750 1,151 457 1,750 1,151 0.0 0.0 0.0 LGE Revenue 15,277 59,794 63,632 15,277 59,794 63,632 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 467 1,579 2,026 422 1,534 1,974 -9.7 -2.9 -2.5 TV business sluggishness NP 301 880 1,340 272 850 1,308 -9.6 -3.3 -2.4 Samsung SDIRevenue 2,009 8,231 8,968 2,009 8,231 8,968 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 33 138 281 33 138 281 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 116 361 417 116 361 417 0.0 0.0 0.0 Samsung Revenue 643 2,647 2,860 643 2,647 2,860 0.0 0.0 0.0 Techwin OP 13 69 91 13 69 91 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 16 87 98 16 87 98 0.0 0.0 0.0 SEC Revenue 54,049 210,646 218,775 54,049 210,646 218,775 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 7,206 28,239 31,149 7,206 28,239 31,149 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 6,265 23,511 25,713 6,265 23,511 25,713 0.0 0.0 0.0 SK Hynix Revenue 4,947 19,590 20,784 4,947 19,590 20,784 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 1,523 6,207 6,850 1,523 6,207 6,850 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 1,163 4,881 5,550 1,163 4,881 5,550 0.0 0.0 0.0 SEMCO Revenue 1,918 7,801 8,519 1,896 7,535 7,830 -1.2 -3.4 -8.1 OP 99 330 458 89 305 415 -10.1 -7.7 -9.4 Decrease in utilization NP 62 224 314 55 207 286 -10.8 -7.6 -8.9 LG Innotek Revenue 1,555 6,784 7,228 1,555 6,784 7,228 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 69 343 417 69 343 417 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 36 188 259 36 188 259 0.0 0.0 0.0 SSC Revenue 251 1,052 1,236 251 1,052 1,236 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 8 43 87 8 43 87 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 3 19 57 3 19 57 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Monthly InsighT 7 II. Investment strategy Consensus vs. KDB Daewoo estimates (Wbn, %) KDB Daewoo Consensus % diff. Notes 2Q15F 2015F 2016F 2Q15F 2015F 2016F 2Q15F 2015F 2016F LGD Revenue 6,773 29,080 27,483 6,856 28,617 28,874 -1.2 1.6 -4.8 OP 567 2,413 1,569 521 2,322 2,091 8.8 3.9 -24.9 Stable panel prices expected NP 457 1,750 1,151 374 1,600 1,503 22.3 9.4 -23.4 LGE Revenue 15,277 59,794 63,632 15,546 60,885 63,607 -1.7 -1.8 0.0 OP 422 1,534 1,974 475 1,548 1,842 -11.2 -0.9 7.2 TV business sluggishness NP 272 850 1,308 254 700 984 7.1 21.5 32.9 Samsung SDIRevenue 2,009 8,231 8,968 1,981 8,067 8,846 1.4 2.0 1.4 OP 33 138 281 30 156 319 9.2 -11.2 -12.0 NP 116 361 417 81 344 468 43.3 5.0 -11.1 Reflecting sale of Samsung General Chemicals Samsung Revenue 643 2,647 2,860 648 2,614 2,711 -0.8 1.3 5.5 Techwin OP 13 69 91 11 41 69 15.5 70.0 31.2 Defenseearnings expected to improve NP 16 87 98 11 49 66 47.3 78.2 49.2 SEC Revenue 54,049 210,646 218,775 54,161 214,143 223,431 -0.2 -1.6 -2.1 OP 7,206 28,239 31,149 7,374 28,516 30,467 -2.3 -1.0 2.2 NP 6,265 23,511 25,713 6,359 24,429 26,488 -1.5 -3.8 -2.9 SK Hynix Revenue 4,947 19,590 20,784 4,794 19,577 20,274 3.2 0.1 2.5 Margins of NAND business expected to improve OP 1,523 6,207 6,850 1,509 6,286 6,373 0.9 -1.3 7.5 starting in 2H15 NP 1,163 4,881 5,550 1,169 5,076 5,172 -0.5 -3.8 7.3 SEMCO Revenue 1,896 7,535 7,830 2,013 7,780 8,239 -5.8 -3.2 -5.0 OP 89 305 415 97 310 360 -8.0 -1.9 15.3 NP 55 207 286 67 219 264 -17.5 -5.6 8.2 LG Innotek Revenue 1,555 6,784 7,228 1,578 6,702 7,204 -1.4 1.2 0.3 OP 69 343 417 76 340 402 -8.6 0.9 3.7 Sluggish sales by keycustomer NP 36 188 259 45 196 253 -19.8 -4.0 2.1 SSC Revenue 251 1,052 1,236 246 992 1,074 2.3 6.0 15.2 OP 8 43 87 7 31 48 7.1 41.5 81.1 Gradual increase inlighting revenue NP 3 19 57 3 14 26 10.9 42.3 119.0 Source: WISEfn, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Monthly InsighT 8 MonthlyMonthly InsighTTECH III.
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