Nicaragua: Navigating the Politics of Democracy
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
EXCERPTED FROM Nicaragua: Navigating the Politics of Democracy David Close Copyright © 2016 ISBNs: 978-1-62637-435-5 hc 1800 30th Street, Suite 314 Boulder, CO 80301 USA telephone 303.444.6684 fax 303.444.0824 This excerpt was downloaded from the Lynne Rienner Publishers website www.rienner.com Contents Acknowledgments vii 1 Nicaragua’s Political Transitions 1 2 Thinking About Regimes 13 3 Nicaragua in 1979 41 4 Radical Sandinismo and the Vanguard Regime 63 5 Electoral Democracy, 1984 –2000 87 6 Power-Sharing Duopoly, 2000 –2011 111 7 Dominant Power and Personalistic Rule, 2011 –Present 135 8 Putting Nicaragua in Perspective 163 List of Acronyms 193 Bibliography 195 Index 211 About the Book 224 v 1 Nicaragua’s Political Transitions President Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua has been a central figure in his country’s government since 1979, when he was one of the key leaders of the Sandinista Revolution that overthrew the four-decade- long dictatorship of the Somoza family. From 1979 to 1984 he was a mem - ber of the nine-person Dirección Nacional (DN, National Directorate), the ruling Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN, Sandinista National Liberation Front) and the Junta de Gobierno de Reconstrucción Nacional (JGRN, Governing Council of National Reconstruction), the rev - olutionary government’s executive body. From 1984 to 1990, he was Nicaragua’s president. On losing the presidential election in 1990, Ortega became an opposi - tion leader as head of the FSLN, then the country’s second largest party. For sixteen years, however, he remained an essential part of the govern - ment, trading the often much-needed support of his FSLN for benefits that kept him and the party close to the apex of power. In 2006, Daniel, as he is universally known in Nicaragua, made his political comeback, winning the presidency for a second time. In 2015 he remains the president, having secured reelection in 2011. Should he opt to run again in 2016, Ortega will win his third straight term. Besides his being popular (his approval ratings generally run over 60 percent), the FSLN controls the electoral system— everything from issuing the ID cards needed to vote and deciding if a party or candidate can run, to counting the votes and declaring the winner—and Daniel’s family and his personal friends own the vast majority of Nicaragua’s mass media. The power to rule is concentrated in his hands. This book is about how that came about. In his three-plus decades in Nicaraguan politics, Daniel Ortega has seen four political transitions that brought Nicaragua a new regime. These occurred in 1979, 1984, 2000, and 2011. The first two left Nicaragua more 1 2 Nicaragua pluralistic and democratic; the last two moved away from democracy. These transitions did not just bring a new government, but rather installed radically different political systems built around a new logic, using a dis - tinct set of institutions, employing restructured processes, and bringing in a fresh set of influentials. In fact, when considering political transitions, it is most often changes from one regime to another, say a dictatorship to a democracy, that interest us. An ordinary change of government (i.e., alter - ing the personnel who control “the set of institutions that makes decisions and oversees their implementation on behalf of the state for a particular period of time” 1) can produce dramatic changes if the new governing party has a program starkly different from its predecessor, but a new regime will almost certainly be a source of significant reforms. In Ortega’s case, the first transition occurred in 1979 and followed the Sandinistas’ seizure of power. The first Sandinista regime was a revolution - ary vanguard system, one that reserved the right to rule to the group that led the revolution. Nicaragua’s version of this regime differed from the Soviet and Cuban models by retaining a level of political pluralism that was suffi - cient to accept that other anti-Somoza forces could also legitimately oppose the FSLN, provided they worked through official state institutions. Within three years the Sandinista leadership began moving toward an electoral democratic regime. This was largely the result of pressure from three sources. One was their domestic loyal opposition, those who accepted the need to preserve the revolutionary regime but opposed at least various policies of the FSLN government. Then there were Western European social democratic parties, who provided diplomatic support while pressur - ing the Sandinistas to move more decisively toward electoral democracy. Finally, there were the counterrevolutionary insurgents, who forced the administration to fight a counterinsurgent war and divert its economic and social reforms. Nicaragua’s first acceptably honest elections since 1932 took place in 1984. They saw Daniel Ortega elected president, the FSLN take nearly two-thirds of the legislative vote, and six other parties win seats and form the parliamentary opposition. That this regime worked as it should, and not necessarily as the FSLN hoped, was demonstrated when the next elections, held in 1990, saw Ortega and the revolutionaries swept from office. The system, however, lasted until 2000, when a power-sharing duopoly was constructed by Ortega and Arnoldo Alemán of the Partido Liberal Constitucionalista (PLC, Constitu - tionalist Liberal Party), who was then president of the republic. Under the new regime the president became less accountable, normally nonpartisan state institutions (courts, the electoral authority, and the national controller) came under the control of the duopolists, and a number of legal obstacles were erected to make it exceedingly difficult for other parties to challenge the power-sharing system. Nicaragua’s Political Transitions 3 The latest stop on Nicaragua’s itinerary of regime transformations began in 2006 when Daniel Ortega staged a comeback after sixteen years out of office, winning a second term as president. This regime, best described as a dominant power system based on personal rule, 2 has seen electoral manipulation, the reappearance of violence as a political tool, and ever more effectively unaccountable political power vested in the hands of the president and his family. That this should occur in Nicaragua today may surprise some. After all, when the FSLN came to power in 1979 many saw the Sandinistas as the good guys. However, time has not been kind to democracy in Nicaragua. Since 2000 the FSLN, along with numerous collaborators, has participated actively in moving the political system toward semidemocratic/semiautocratic. From 1979 to 1990, Nicaragua and the FSLN were big news and a hot topic for academic research. But when the FSLN lost power in the 1990 elections, Nicaragua’s second since those same Sandinistas brought the country electoral democracy in 1984, interest began to fade. This was understandable, as other stories were bigger, timelier, and more exciting. Yet Nicaragua did not stand still. Rather it continued changing, experiment - ing with new modes of governing and government, restructuring its politi - cal system twice more. In the process, a great deal of what once caused people to support the Sandinistas has changed, and perhaps the greatest changes are those that affected the FSLN and its leader Daniel Ortega. Nicaragua: Navigating the Politics of Democracy examines the politi - cal changes the country has experienced since the Sandinista revolution of 1979. The first twenty-one years of that period saw the quality of democ - racy improve in the country. After that, Nicaragua’s democracy began exhibiting more undemocratic characteristics. The country is still too plu - ralistic politically to be deemed autocratic, but it has strayed from the radi - cal democratic path it laid out in 1970, as well as from the orthodox repre - sentative democratic course it embarked on in 1984. The Book’s Background This book traces its lineage back to 2004 and a book titled Undoing Democracy: The Politics of Electoral Caudillismo, coedited by me and Kalowatie Deonandan. That book was about what Nicaraguans still call “the pact”: the deal between the then-president of Nicaragua, Arnoldo Alemán of the PLC, and the Sandinista ex-president (1984–1990), Daniel Ortega, that gave rise to the power-sharing duopolistic regime analyzed in Chapter 6. We called the book Undoing Democracy because until the new regime that was initiated in 2000, Nicaragua was becoming steadily more democratic. It had moved beyond the redistributive focus of a surprisingly 4 Nicaragua pluralistic radical, revolutionary democracy to embrace electoral democ - racy in 1984. Eleven years later it took an important step toward constitu - tional democracy with a broad package of constitutional amendments, whose principal effect was to reduce presidential powers and make the chief executive more accountable. Those reforms unfortunately proved too much for the men heading the parties that got 89 percent of the presidential vote in 1996 (51 percent for the PLC, 38 percent for the FSLN). Freeing themselves and the successors of those restrictions changed Nicaragua’s political trajectory away from democracy. It has continued on that path to this day. In this book, I extend the examination of the country’s political transi - tions from 1979 to 2015, which encompassed four regime changes. Again, these were not just changes of governments, as they went far beyond sim - ply reordering personnel and policies. They were full-scale makeovers of the political system: the entire