Demographic Study for the Scarsdale Public Schools January 2020 Prepared By: Richard S. Grip, Ed.D. 2 Table of Contents Page Executive Summary ................................................................................................ 3 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 7 Enrollment Projections from December 2018 Report ............................................ 7 District Overview ........................................................................................... 9 Explanation of the Cohort-Survival Ratio Method .................................................. 9 Historical Enrollment Trends ................................................................................... 11 Non-Public School Enrollments ............................................................................. 15 Kindergarten Replacement ...................................................................................... 20 Birth Data ......................................................................................................... 22 New Housing in the Scarsdale Public Schools Attendance Area ............................ 24 Home Sales ........................................................................................... 26 Enrollment Projections ........................................................................................... 27 Projected Enrollments by Grade Configuration ...................................................... 31 Elementary School Projections ............................................................................... 32 Edgewood Elementary School ...................................................................... 32 Fox Meadow Elementary School .................................................................. 33 Greenacres Elementary School ...................................................................... 34 Heathcote Elementary School ...................................................................... 35 Quaker Ridge Elementary School ................................................................. 36 3 Executive Summary Statistical Forecasting LLC (“Statistical Forecasting”) completed a demographic study update for the Scarsdale Public Schools, projecting grade-by-grade enrollments from 2020-21 through 2024-25, a five-year period. The previous study was completed for the district in December 2018. In addition, the following tasks were completed: examined historical enrollment trends, both districtwide and by grade configuration (K-5, 6-8, and 9-12), investigated enrollment trends of resident students from Scarsdale who are attending non- public schools, analyzed community birth counts, and tabulated new housing starts and the impact on the school district. Historical Enrollment Trends Historical enrollments (K-12) were analyzed from 2010-11 through 2019-20, a ten-year period. In general, enrollment has been fairly stable over the last ten years, varying from 4,721- 4,821, which is a range of 100 students. In 2019-20, enrollment is 4,745, which is in the lower half of the historical range. For grades K-5, enrollment declined through 2012-13 before remaining fairly stable through 2016-17. Enrollment has declined in each of the last three years. In 2019-20, enrollment is 2,067, which is a loss of 103 students from the 2010-11 enrollment of 2,170. For grades 6-8 at Scarsdale Middle School, enrollments have been fairly stable in the last ten years, varying from 1,126-1,179, which is a range of 53 students. Enrollment is 1,154 in 2019-20, which is slightly lower than the 2010-11 enrollment of 1,179. Finally, at Scarsdale High School, which contains grades 9-12, enrollments increased through 2014-15 before stabilizing. In 2019-20, enrollment is 1,524, which is a gain of 107 students from the 2010-11 enrollment of 1,417. Non-Public School Enrollments The number of resident students from the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area (“Scarsdale resident students”) who attended non-public schools was tabulated from 2015-16 through 2019-20, a five-year period. Counts were tabulated by elementary (K-6), secondary (7- 12), and total (K-12). The total number of non-public students (K-12) was fairly stable from 2015-16 to 2018- 19 before increasing to 427 in 2019-20. The number of Scarsdale resident students attending non-public schools in 2019-20 represents 8.3% of the total Scarsdale resident student population. In 2019-20, nearly half (46%) of the non-public school population attend one of five schools: The Masters School, The Leffell School, The Windward School, Horace Mann School, and Westchester Day School. In the last five years, the percentage of Scarsdale resident students 4 attending public school has ranged from 91.7%-93.1% with no apparent increasing or declining trend. Kindergarten Replacement Kindergarten replacements were analyzed to determine whether there was any relationship between overall enrollment change and kindergarten replacement, which is the numerical difference between the number of graduating 12th graders and the number of entering kindergarten students. The district has experienced negative kindergarten replacement in eight of the last nine years, ranging from 25-123 students per year. Negative kindergarten replacement occurs when the number of graduating 12th grade students is larger than the number of kindergarten students replacing them in the next year. In the last five years, the district has lost an average of 75 students per year due to kindergarten replacement. In each instance of negative kindergarten replacement, the district’s losses were partially offset (or totally, resulting in an enrollment increase) by a net inward migration of students in the other grades (K to 1, 1 to 2, 2 to 3, etc.). Birth Counts The number of births was used to project kindergarten enrollments. Births in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area declined from a high of 150 in 2006 to a low of 88 in 2013. Since then, births have been slowly increasing. In 2017, there were 114 births, which is the highest value since 2012. With the exception of 2018-19 when there was a very small kindergarten class of 259 students, the decline in the number of births has not significantly affected the kindergarten total five years later. Excluding 2018-19, kindergarten enrollment has been fairly stable in the last ten years, ranging from 307-350 students per year. The stability of the kindergarten enrollment, despite a decline in the birth rate, is likely due to the significant inward migration of families with children under the age of five. Potential New Housing Municipal representatives from Scarsdale and Mamaroneck were contacted regarding potential new housing in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area. In Scarsdale, there is the potential for three residential developments, with the largest being the redevelopment of an empty parking lot (“Freightway site”) owned by the Village of Scarsdale. Recently, two prospective developers submitted proposals to the Village outlining their respective plans. The first proposal would be a mix of 285 rental and for-sale apartments while the second proposal would consist of 220 duplex condominiums and townhouses. It is anticipated that the Village may select one of the submitted proposals in March 2020. The baseline enrollment projections were not adjusted since it is unclear whether the Freightway site will be developed and whether occupation would occur within the next five years, which is the timeframe of this study. There are no residential developments under construction, nor are there development applications that have been approved by the planning board in the section of Mamaroneck that 5 sends to the Scarsdale Public Schools. Most residential construction in Mamaroneck has been limited to building new homes after the demolition of an existing older home (“knockdowns”), which is a net change of zero housing units. Home Sales Home sales in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area were reviewed from 2000- 2019. Home sales peaked in 2002 (279 sales) before declining to 142 sales in 2008 due to the banking and financial crises. Beginning in 2009, the number of sales steadily increased through 2014 (253 sales) before stabilizing. In 2019, there were 258 home sales, which is very similar to the sale totals prior to the banking and financial crises. Enrollment Projections K-12 enrollments were computed for a five-year period, 2020-21 through 2024-25, in three separate projections due to the variability that has occurred in the district’s birth-to- kindergarten survival ratios. Each of the projections yielded similar results, whereby total enrollment is projected to slowly decline throughout the projection period. In 2024-25, enrollments are projected to range from 4,697-4,704 in the three projections, which would represent a loss of 41-48 students from the 2019-20 enrollment of 4,745. At the elementary level containing grades K-5, enrollments are projected to steadily decline through 2023-24 before reversing trend. In 2024-25, enrollments are projected to range from 1,998-2,046 in the three projections, which would represent a loss of 21-69 students from the 2019-20 enrollment of 2,067. For Scarsdale Middle School (grades 6-8), enrollments are projected to slowly increase through 2022-23 before reversing trend. In 2024-25, enrollments are projected to range from 1,090-1,112 in the three projections, which would represent a loss of 42-64 students