Demographic Analysis

Demographic Study

for the

Scarsdale Public Schools

January 2020

Prepared By:

Richard S. Grip, Ed.D.

Table of Contents

Page

Executive Summary ...... 3

Introduction ...... 7

Enrollment Projections from December 2018 Report ...... 7

District Overview ...... 9

Explanation of the Cohort-Survival Ratio Method ...... 9

Historical Enrollment Trends ...... 11

Non-Public School Enrollments ...... 15

Kindergarten Replacement ...... 20

Birth Data ...... 22

New Housing in the Scarsdale Public Schools Attendance Area ...... 24

Home Sales ...... 26

Enrollment Projections ...... 27

Projected Enrollments by Grade Configuration ...... 31

Elementary School Projections ...... 32 Edgewood Elementary School ...... 32 Fox Meadow Elementary School ...... 33 Greenacres Elementary School ...... 34 Heathcote Elementary School ...... 35 Quaker Ridge Elementary School ...... 36

Executive Summary

Statistical Forecasting LLC (“Statistical Forecasting”) completed a demographic study update for the Scarsdale Public Schools, projecting grade-by-grade enrollments from 2020-21 through 2024-25, a five-year period. The previous study was completed for the district in December 2018. In addition, the following tasks were completed:

 examined historical enrollment trends, both districtwide and by grade configuration (K-5, 6-8, and 9-12),  investigated enrollment trends of resident students from Scarsdale who are attending non- public schools,  analyzed community birth counts, and  tabulated new housing starts and the impact on the school district.

Historical Enrollment Trends

Historical enrollments (K-12) were analyzed from 2010-11 through 2019-20, a ten-year period. In general, enrollment has been fairly stable over the last ten years, varying from 4,721- 4,821, which is a range of 100 students. In 2019-20, enrollment is 4,745, which is in the lower half of the historical range.

For grades K-5, enrollment declined through 2012-13 before remaining fairly stable through 2016-17. Enrollment has declined in each of the last three years. In 2019-20, enrollment is 2,067, which is a loss of 103 students from the 2010-11 enrollment of 2,170.

For grades 6-8 at Scarsdale Middle School, enrollments have been fairly stable in the last ten years, varying from 1,126-1,179, which is a range of 53 students. Enrollment is 1,154 in 2019-20, which is slightly lower than the 2010-11 enrollment of 1,179.

Finally, at Scarsdale High School, which contains grades 9-12, enrollments increased through 2014-15 before stabilizing. In 2019-20, enrollment is 1,524, which is a gain of 107 students from the 2010-11 enrollment of 1,417.

Non-Public School Enrollments

The number of resident students from the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area (“Scarsdale resident students”) who attended non-public schools was tabulated from 2015-16 through 2019-20, a five-year period. Counts were tabulated by elementary (K-6), secondary (7- 12), and total (K-12).

The total number of non-public students (K-12) was fairly stable from 2015-16 to 2018- 19 before increasing to 427 in 2019-20. The number of Scarsdale resident students attending non-public schools in 2019-20 represents 8.3% of the total Scarsdale resident student population. In 2019-20, nearly half (46%) of the non-public school population attend one of five schools: The Masters School, The Leffell School, The Windward School, Horace Mann School, and Westchester Day School. In the last five years, the percentage of Scarsdale resident students 4 attending public school has ranged from 91.7%-93.1% with no apparent increasing or declining trend.

Kindergarten Replacement

Kindergarten replacements were analyzed to determine whether there was any relationship between overall enrollment change and kindergarten replacement, which is the numerical difference between the number of graduating 12th graders and the number of entering kindergarten students. The district has experienced negative kindergarten replacement in eight of the last nine years, ranging from 25-123 students per year. Negative kindergarten replacement occurs when the number of graduating 12th grade students is larger than the number of kindergarten students replacing them in the next year. In the last five years, the district has lost an average of 75 students per year due to kindergarten replacement. In each instance of negative kindergarten replacement, the district’s losses were partially offset (or totally, resulting in an enrollment increase) by a net inward migration of students in the other grades (K to 1, 1 to 2, 2 to 3, etc.).

Birth Counts

The number of births was used to project kindergarten enrollments. Births in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area declined from a high of 150 in 2006 to a low of 88 in 2013. Since then, births have been slowly increasing. In 2017, there were 114 births, which is the highest value since 2012. With the exception of 2018-19 when there was a very small kindergarten class of 259 students, the decline in the number of births has not significantly affected the kindergarten total five years later. Excluding 2018-19, kindergarten enrollment has been fairly stable in the last ten years, ranging from 307-350 students per year. The stability of the kindergarten enrollment, despite a decline in the birth rate, is likely due to the significant inward migration of families with children under the age of five.

Potential New Housing

Municipal representatives from Scarsdale and Mamaroneck were contacted regarding potential new housing in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area.

In Scarsdale, there is the potential for three residential developments, with the largest being the redevelopment of an empty parking lot (“Freightway site”) owned by the Village of Scarsdale. Recently, two prospective developers submitted proposals to the Village outlining their respective plans. The first proposal would be a mix of 285 rental and for-sale apartments while the second proposal would consist of 220 duplex condominiums and townhouses. It is anticipated that the Village may select one of the submitted proposals in March 2020. The baseline enrollment projections were not adjusted since it is unclear whether the Freightway site will be developed and whether occupation would occur within the next five years, which is the timeframe of this study.

There are no residential developments under construction, nor are there development applications that have been approved by the planning board in the section of Mamaroneck that 5 sends to the Scarsdale Public Schools. Most residential construction in Mamaroneck has been limited to building new homes after the demolition of an existing older home (“knockdowns”), which is a net change of zero housing units.

Home Sales

Home sales in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area were reviewed from 2000- 2019. Home sales peaked in 2002 (279 sales) before declining to 142 sales in 2008 due to the banking and financial crises. Beginning in 2009, the number of sales steadily increased through 2014 (253 sales) before stabilizing. In 2019, there were 258 home sales, which is very similar to the sale totals prior to the banking and financial crises.

Enrollment Projections

K-12 enrollments were computed for a five-year period, 2020-21 through 2024-25, in three separate projections due to the variability that has occurred in the district’s birth-to- kindergarten survival ratios. Each of the projections yielded similar results, whereby total enrollment is projected to slowly decline throughout the projection period. In 2024-25, enrollments are projected to range from 4,697-4,704 in the three projections, which would represent a loss of 41-48 students from the 2019-20 enrollment of 4,745.

At the elementary level containing grades K-5, enrollments are projected to steadily decline through 2023-24 before reversing trend. In 2024-25, enrollments are projected to range from 1,998-2,046 in the three projections, which would represent a loss of 21-69 students from the 2019-20 enrollment of 2,067.

For Scarsdale Middle School (grades 6-8), enrollments are projected to slowly increase through 2022-23 before reversing trend. In 2024-25, enrollments are projected to range from 1,090-1,112 in the three projections, which would represent a loss of 42-64 students from the 2019-20 enrollment of 1,154.

For Scarsdale High School (grades 9-12), enrollments are projected to slowly increase for the first four years of the projection period before stabilizing. In 2024-25, enrollments are projected to range from 1,561-1,594 in the three projections, which would represent a gain of 37- 70 students from the 2019-20 enrollment of 1,524.

Final Thoughts

In the next five years, total enrollment (K-12) is projected to slowly decline in the Scarsdale Public Schools, which will predominantly occur in the elementary and middle school grades. While there is inward migration in the school district, as evidenced by the cohort survival ratios (particularly for birth-to-kindergarten) since parents desire to have their children educated in a highly-rated and excellent school district, it is not enough to overcome the existing negative kindergarten replacement.

While there is the potential for a significant number of new housing units from the Freightway redevelopment, it is unclear whether the Village will redevelop this site. If the Village does select one of the proposals under consideration, and a site plan is submitted reflecting the bedroom distribution, an estimate can be made of the number of children from the development. Therefore, it is recommended that the Board continue to monitor the status of the Freightway redevelopment to determine the future impact on the school district. 7

Introduction

Enrollment Projections from December 2018 Report

In our previous demographic study, enrollments were projected from 2019-20 through 2023-24, a five-year projection period. Table 1 compares the actual and projected enrollments in 2019-20 for the entire district (K-12), as well as for the elementary (K-5), middle (6-8), and high (9-12) school grade configurations. Since three projections were computed in the previous study, the table shows the numerical differences and percent errors by year for each of the projections. Positive error rates indicate over-projections while negative error rates indicate under-projections.

Table 1 Comparison of Projected to Actual Enrollments from December 2018 Report

Projected CSR 4-YR Projected CSR 5-YR Projected CSR 6-YR Actual 2019-20 2019-20 2019-20 Enrollment % % % 2019-20 Count Diff. Count Diff. Count Diff. Error Error Error Total (K-12) 4,745 4,694 -51 -1.1% 4,683 -62 -1.3% 4,678 -67 -1.4% Elementary (K-5) 2,067 2,014 -53 -2.6% 2,001 -66 -3.2% 2,001 -66 -3.2% Middle (6-8) 1,154 1,140 -14 -1.2% 1,143 -11 -1.0% 1,142 -12 -1.0% High (9-12) 1,524 1,540 +16 +1.0% 1,539 +15 +1.0% 1,535 +11 +0.7%

In our previous study, total enrollment (K-12) was projected to decline throughout the projection period. Instead, enrollment increased by 19 students in 2019-20. As the table shows, total enrollment was under-projected by 51 students (-1.1%) in the first projection, by 62 students (-1.3%) in the second projection, and by 67 students (-1.4%) in the third projection.

In a survey by Schellenberg and Stephens of educational planners who complete enrollment projections, two-thirds believe that an error rate of 1% per year for the total enrollment is acceptable1. For a five-year projection, this would mean that a 5% error rate in the fifth year would be acceptable. In each instance, the projections were above the recommended threshold of 1% in the first projection year.

At the elementary level (K-5), enrollments were underestimated in each year, as error rates were 2.6% in the first projection and 3.2% in the second and third projections. Expressed in numbers, the projections differed from actual enrollments by 53 students in the first projection and by 66 students in the second and third projections. While elementary enrollments were projected to decline by 55-68 students in 2019-20, they declined by only three (3) students. Upon further inspection, most of the error was due to under-projecting kindergarten, which was under-projected by 32-41 students. Of the three grade configurations, the percent errors in the elementary configuration were the greatest.

At the middle school level, enrollments were also underestimated in each year. Enrollments were under-projected by 14 students (-1.2%) in the first projection and by 11 students (-1.0%) in the second projection. In the third projection, enrollment was under- projected by 12 students (-1.0%).

Finally, at the high school level, enrollments were overestimated in each year. Enrollments were over-projected by 16 students (+1.0%) in the first projection, by 15 students (+1.0%) in the second projection, and by 11 students in the third projection (+0.7%).

At the school level, half of the survey respondents in the Schellenberg and Stephens survey believed an error rate of 3-5% in the first projection year was acceptable2. Both the middle and high school error rates fall well below the range of 3-5% of what educational planners deem acceptable. The elementary projections shown in Table 1 are not for an individual school, but are for the five combined schools and therefore are not compared to the acceptable error rate.

The accuracy of the projections is contingent on the most recent historical trends continuing into the future. If there is a departure from these trends caused by, for example, numerous new housing starts (or planned housing starts that do not occur), changes in school district policy, changes to immigration laws, an economic downturn, a change in the housing resale market, etc., the enrollment projections presented are less likely to be accurate in future years, as this analysis does not forecast future trends. Therefore, the projections need to be revised annually to detect potential reversals in enrollment trends. Changes in enrollment are dependent on several factors such as birth counts, migration of students into or out of the school district, the presence of alternative schools such as charter schools, private schools, or parochial schools, and school district policy changes.

1 Schellenberg, S. J., & Stephens, C. E. (1987). Enrollment projection: variations on a theme. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association, Washington D.C., (ERIC Document Reproduction Service No. ED 283 879) 2 ibid. 9

District Overview

The Scarsdale Public Schools has a total of seven (7) schools that serve children in grades kindergarten through twelfth. The school district receives children from the Village of Scarsdale and a small section of Mamaroneck. Children attend one of five (5) elementary schools for grades K-5: Edgewood Elementary School (“Edgewood”), Fox Meadow Elementary School (“Fox Meadow”), Greenacres Elementary School (“Greenacres”), Heathcote Elementary School (“Heathcote”), or Quaker Ridge Elementary School (“Quaker Ridge”). Children than attend Scarsdale Middle School for grades 6-8 and Scarsdale High School for grades 9-12. Locations of the schools with respect to the district’s boundaries are shown in Figure 1.

Explanation of the Cohort-Survival Ratio Method

In 1930, Dublin and Lodka provided an explicit age breakdown, which enabled analysts to follow each cohort through its life stages and apply appropriate birth and death rates for each generation. A descendant of this process is the Cohort-Survival Ratio (“CSR”) method. In this method, a survival ratio is computed for each grade progression, which essentially compares the number of students in a particular grade to the number of students in the previous grade during the previous year. The survival ratio indicates whether the enrollment is stable, increasing, or decreasing. A survival ratio of 1.00 indicates stable enrollment, less than 1.00 indicates declining enrollment, while greater than 1.00 indicates increasing enrollment. If, for example, a school district had 100 fourth graders and the next year only had 95 fifth graders, the survival ratio would be 0.95.

The CSR method assumes that what happened in the past will also happen in the future. In essence, this method provides a linear projection of the population. The CSR method is most applicable for districts that have relatively stable increasing or decreasing trends without any major unpredictable fluctuations from year to year. In school districts encountering rapid growth not experienced historically (a change in the historical trend), the CSR method must be modified and supplemented with additional information.

In this study, historical enrollments were obtained from the New York State Basic Educational Data System (“BEDS”) and the Scarsdale Public Schools and were used to project enrollments for five years into the future. Survival ratios were calculated using historical data from the last ten years for birth to kindergarten, kindergarten to first grade, first grade to second grade, etc. Due to the fluctuation in survival ratios from year to year, it is appropriate to calculate an average survival ratio, which is then used to calculate grade enrollments five years into the future.

Figure 1 School Locations –Scarsdale Public Schools

Historical Enrollment Trends

Historical enrollments (grades K-12) for the Scarsdale Public Schools from 2010-11 through 2019-20, a ten-year period, are shown in Figure 2 and Table 2. In general, enrollment has been fairly stable over the last ten years, varying from 4,721-4,821, which is a range of 100 students. In 2019-20, enrollment is 4,745, which is in the lower half of the historical range.

Figure 2 Scarsdale Public Schools Historical Enrollments (K-12) 2010-11 to 2019-20

5,000 4,766 4,721 4,739 4,787 4,821 4,775 4,778 4,769 4,726 4,745

4,000

3,000

2,000 Number ofStudents

1,000

0 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Year

Table 3 shows computed grade-by-grade survival ratios from 2010-11 to 2019-20. In addition, the average, minimum, and maximum survival ratios are shown for the past ten years along with the four-, five-, and six-year averages, which were used to project enrollments. The average survival ratios also indicate the net migration by grade, where values over 1.000 reflect net inward migration and values below 1.000 reflect net outward migration. Ten of the thirteen average survival ratios (four-, five-, or six-year trends) were above 1.000, indicating a general inward migration of students. All of the average survival ratios at the elementary level were above 1.000. Two of the three average survival ratios that were below 1.000 were at the high school level. In comparing the five-year averages with the ten-year averages, the most notable difference was for the birth-to-kindergarten cohort, which has experienced a significant increase in its ratio in the near term.

Table 2 Scarsdale Public Schools Historical Enrollments (K-12) 2010-11 to 2019-20

1 2 K-5 3 6-8 4 9-12 K-12 Year K 1 2 3 4 5 SE 6 7 8 SE 9 10 11 12 SE Total Total Total Total 2010-11 307 357 372 366 380 388 0 2,170 407 370 398 4 1,179 346 336 358 368 9 1,417 4,766

2011-12 310 333 362 367 367 379 0 2,118 382 408 367 3 1,160 393 355 331 356 8 1,443 4,721

2012-13 313 324 345 377 380 376 0 2,115 374 383 412 3 1,172 373 400 355 322 2 1,452 4,739

2013-14 350 320 339 365 376 381 0 2,131 381 366 385 2 1,134 397 369 401 351 4 1,522 4,787

2014-15 326 362 333 366 363 395 0 2,145 383 383 362 4 1,132 378 402 362 399 3 1,544 4,821

2015-16 319 343 366 331 369 372 0 2,100 403 380 387 3 1,173 357 383 400 359 3 1,502 4,775

2016-17 318 336 364 374 345 382 0 2,119 376 395 370 1 1,142 380 360 385 392 0 1,517 4,778

2017-18 325 329 350 368 387 346 0 2,105 377 380 391 0 1,148 384 380 370 382 0 1,516 4,769

2018-19 259 335 341 359 387 389 0 2,070 367 382 377 0 1,126 400 378 380 372 0 1,530 4,726

2019-20 309 281 348 363 368 396 2 2,067 388 380 386 0 1,154 379 391 383 371 0 1,524 4,745 Notes: 1Data were provided by the New York State Department of Education BEDS reports and the Scarsdale Public Schools. 2Ungraded special education enrollment at the elementary school level 3Ungraded special education enrollment at the middle school level 4Ungraded special education enrollment at the high school level

Table 3 Scarsdale Public Schools Historical Survival Ratios 2010-11 to 2019-20

Progression Years B-K K-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11 11-12

2010-11 to 2011-12 2.0667 1.0847 1.0140 0.9866 1.0027 0.9974 0.9845 1.0025 0.9919 0.9874 1.0260 0.9851 0.9944

2011-12 to 2012-13 2.4264 1.0452 1.0360 1.0414 1.0354 1.0245 0.9868 1.0026 1.0098 1.0163 1.0178 1.0000 0.9728

2012-13 to 2013-14 2.6316 1.0224 1.0463 1.0580 0.9973 1.0026 1.0133 0.9786 1.0052 0.9636 0.9893 1.0025 0.9887

2013-14 to 2014-15 2.5669 1.0343 1.0406 1.0796 0.9945 1.0505 1.0052 1.0052 0.9891 0.9818 1.0126 0.9810 0.9950

2014-15 to 2015-16 3.1900 1.0521 1.0110 0.9940 1.0082 1.0248 1.0203 0.9922 1.0104 0.9862 1.0132 0.9950 0.9917

2015-16 to 2016-17 2.8649 1.0533 1.0612 1.0219 1.0423 1.0352 1.0108 0.9801 0.9737 0.9819 1.0084 1.0052 0.9800

2016-17 to 2017-18 2.5391 1.0346 1.0417 1.0110 1.0348 1.0029 0.9869 1.0106 0.9899 1.0378 1.0000 1.0278 0.9922

2017-18 to 2018-19 2.9432 1.0308 1.0365 1.0257 1.0516 1.0052 1.0607 1.0133 0.9921 1.0230 0.9844 1.0000 1.0054

2018-19 to 2019-20 3.2188 1.0849 1.0388 1.0645 1.0251 1.0233 0.9974 1.0354 1.0105 1.0053 0.9775 1.0132 0.9763

Maximum Ratio 3.2188 1.0849 1.0612 1.0796 1.0516 1.0505 1.0607 1.0354 1.0105 1.0378 1.0260 1.0278 1.0054

Minimum Ratio 2.0667 1.0224 1.0110 0.9866 0.9945 0.9974 0.9845 0.9786 0.9737 0.9636 0.9775 0.9810 0.9728

Avg. 4-Year Ratios 2.8915 1.0501 1.0390 1.0337 1.0372 1.0104 1.0150 1.0198 0.9975 1.0221 0.9873 1.0137 0.9913

Avg. 5-Year Ratios 2.9512 1.0509 1.0445 1.0308 1.0384 1.0166 1.0139 1.0099 0.9915 1.0120 0.9926 1.0116 0.9885

Avg. 6-Year Ratios 2.8871 1.0511 1.0378 1.0234 1.0324 1.0183 1.0152 1.0063 0.9953 1.0069 0.9967 1.0083 0.9891

Avg. 10-Year Ratios 2.7164 1.0491 1.0362 1.0314 1.0213 1.0185 1.0073 1.0023 0.9970 0.9982 1.0032 1.0011 0.9885 Diff. Between 5-Year +0.2348 +0.0018 +0.0083 -0.0006 +0.0171 -0.0019 +0.0066 +0.0076 -0.0054 +0.0139 -0.0107 +0.0105 0.0000 and 10-Year Ratios 14

Factors related to inward migration include families with school-age children purchasing an existing home or new housing unit. The reasons for families moving into a community vary. For instance, a family could move into the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area for economic reasons and proximity to employment. Another plausible reason for inward migration is the reputation of the school district, as the appeal of a school district draws families into a community, resulting in the transfer of students into the district. On the flip side, outward migration is caused by families with children moving out of the community, perhaps due to difficulty in finding employment or affordable housing. Outward migration in the school district can also be caused by parents choosing to withdraw their children from public school to attend private or parochial schools, or to attend a different public school district. In the case of the Scarsdale Public Schools, the reasons for migration are not explicitly known (such as for economic reasons or the appeal of the school district), as exit and entrance interviews would need to be conducted for all children leaving or entering the district.

Historical enrollments are also shown in Table 2 and Figure 3 by grade configuration (K- 5, 6-8, and 9-12). Self-contained special education/ungraded students were incorporated into the totals by grade configuration. For grades K-5, enrollment declined through 2012-13 before remaining fairly stable through 2016-17. Enrollment has declined in each of the last three years. In 2019-20, enrollment is 2,067, which is a loss of 103 students from the 2010-11 enrollment of 2,170.

Figure 3 Scarsdale Public Schools Historical Enrollments by Level 2010-11 to 2019-20 2,500 2,170 2,145 2,118 2,115 2,131 2,100 2,119 2,105 2,070 2,067

2,000

1,522 1,544 1,502 1,517 1,516 1,530 1,524 1,417 1,443 1,452 1,500

1,000 1,179 1,160 1,172 1,134 1,132 1,173 1,142 1,148 1,126 1,154

500 Number ofStudents Gr. K-5 Gr. 6-8 Gr. 9-12

0 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Year

Non-Public School Enrollments

In Figure 4, the number of resident students from the Scarsdale attendance area (“Scarsdale resident students”) who are attending non-public schools is shown from 2015-16 through 2019-20, a five-year period. Counts are shown for elementary (K-6), secondary (7-12), and total (K-12). Pre-kindergarten students were excluded. In addition, Table 4 provides a detailed list of non-public schools and the number of Scarsdale resident students attending each school from 2015-16 through 2019-20.

The number of non-public students (K-12) was fairly stable from 2015-16 to 2018-19 before increasing to 427 in 2019-20. At the elementary level, the number of Scarsdale resident students attending non-public schools was fairly stable with no apparent declining or increasing trend, ranging from 146-172 students per year. At the secondary level, the number of Scarsdale resident students attending non-public schools increased from 200 in 2015-16 to 256 in 2019-20. The number of Scarsdale resident students attending non-public schools in 2019-20 represents 8.3%3 of the total Scarsdale resident student population.

In 2019-20, nearly half (46%) of the non-public school population attend one of five schools. The five non-public schools that have the greatest number of Scarsdale resident students in 2019-20 are:

1. The Masters School – 49 students (11.5% of Scarsdale’s non-public population) 2. The Leffell School (Lower and Upper schools) – 47 students (11.0%) 3. The Windward School (Lower and Upper schools) – 39 students (9.1%) 4. Horace Mann School (Lower, Middle, and Upper schools) – 37 students (8.7%) 5. Westchester Day School – 26 students (6.1%)

Figure 4 Non-Public School Enrollments of Scarsdale Resident Students 2015-16 to 2019-20 600 Gr. K-6 Gr. 7-12 Total 500 427 372 380 380 400 354

300 256 223 200 208 213

200 Number ofStudents 172 167 171 100 146 157

0 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Year

3 This does not include children who are homeschooled or who are not attending school.

Table 4 Non-Public School Enrollments of Scarsdale Public Schools Resident Students

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 School K-6 7-12 Total K-6 7-12 Total K-6 7-12 Total K-6 7-12 Total K-6 7-12 Total Abraham Joshua Heschel School 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Alcott School 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Archbishop Stepinac High School 0 13 13 0 12 12 0 8 8 0 7 7 0 0 0 Birch Wathen Lenox School 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Blue Rock School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 Cardinal Spellman High School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 2 Collegiate School 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 Convent of the Sacred Heart 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dalton School (The) 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 Dominican Academy 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dwight School (The) 0 1 1 2 3 5 2 1 3 2 0 2 2 1 3 Elmwood Country Day School 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 Ethical Culture Fieldston Middle School 1 1 2 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 0 2 2 Ethical Culture Fieldston School 0 1 1 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 3 3 Ethical Culture The Fieldston Lower School 5 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 2 0 2 Fordham Preparatory School 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 1 1 0 2 2 0 2 2 French-American School 22 6 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 French-American School - 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 1 1 0 8 8 French-American School - 2 0 0 0 6 8 14 2 3 5 4 3 7 6 3 9 French-American School - 3 0 0 0 11 0 11 6 0 6 8 0 8 12 0 12 French-American School - 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fusion Academy Lincoln Center 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fusion Academy Westchester 0 3 3 0 1 1 0 2 2 1 3 4 2 3 5 German International School NY 10 10 20 7 10 17 5 7 12 2 6 8 8 3 11 Gow School (The) 0 1 1 0 4 4 0 5 5 0 3 3 0 1 1 Hackley School 3 6 9 5 6 11 7 5 12 12 4 16 6 6 12 Harvey School (The) 0 5 5 0 6 6 0 6 6 0 7 7 0 7 7 Horace Mann School 2 12 14 2 9 11 2 4 6 3 4 7 5 5 10 Horace Mann School Lower Division 3 0 3 3 0 3 2 0 2 5 0 5 6 0 6 Horace Mann School Nursery School and 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kindergarten Horace Mann Upper School 2 12 14 0 15 15 0 17 17 0 18 18 0 21 21 Hudson Country Montessori School 2 0 2 0 0 0 2 1 3 4 1 5 2 0 2 Immaculate Heart of Mary School 1 2 3 4 2 6 5 0 5 5 0 5 4 0 4 Iona Prep School 0 8 8 0 5 5 0 5 5 0 4 4 0 7 7 Iona Prep School – Lower School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 1 4 John Cardinal O’Connor School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 Keio Academy of New York 0 3 3 0 1 1 0 3 3 0 5 5 0 6 6

Kodomono Kuni 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 2 Leffell School (The) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 0 26 Leffell School – Upper School (The) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 16 21 Leman Manhattan Prep School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Lycee Francais De Ny 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 Lyceum Kennedy 4 2 6 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Maplebrook School 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 Maria Regina High School 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 10 10 Masters School (The) 3 16 19 4 17 21 6 22 28 7 37 44 6 43 49 Milestone School (The) 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 Millbrook School 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mohawk Country Day School 7 0 7 7 0 7 4 0 4 2 0 2 1 0 1 Montfort Academy (The) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 Northwood School 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 Oakview Prep School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 Our Lady of Sorrows School 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Preston High School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 Professional Children’s School 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ramaz Lower School 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ramaz Middle School 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 Ramaz Upper School 0 23 23 0 21 21 0 17 17 0 10 10 0 9 9 Regis High School 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 Resurrection School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 Ridgeway Nursery School and Kindergarten 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 Rippowam Cisqua School (The) 2 1 3 3 0 3 4 0 4 5 2 7 5 5 10 Riverdale Country School 1 5 6 2 6 8 4 6 10 4 9 13 2 9 11 Rye Country Day School 4 5 9 1 6 7 2 9 11 3 8 11 4 9 13 Sacred Heart Elementary School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 0 0 Sacred Heart High School 0 3 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 3 3 Salanter Akiba Riverdale Academy 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30 0 0 0 0 1 1 Salesian High School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 SAR High School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 23 Sarah Lawrence Early Childhood Center 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 School of the Holy Child 0 0 0 0 6 6 0 6 6 1 6 7 0 0 0 Shefa School 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 Shrub Oak International School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Sinai Special Needs Institute 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 Solomon Schechter School - Westchester 34 0 34 31 0 31 24 0 24 30 0 30 0 0 0 Solomon Schechter - Upper School 3 15 18 5 16 21 9 11 20 3 17 20 0 0 0 Soundview Prep School 0 2 2 0 8 8 0 6 6 0 6 6 0 2 2 St. Barnabas High School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 St. Eugene School 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 St. Joseph School 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 St. Vincent Ferrer High School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 Sts. John & Paul School 2 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 4 0 4 6 0 6 Stephen Gaynor School 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Storm King School 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Thornton Donovan School 2 7 9 1 4 5 1 6 7 1 6 7 3 6 9 Transfiguration School 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 1 Trinity Pawling School 0 2 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 United Nations International School 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ursuline School 0 4 4 0 0 0 0 2 2 11 11 21 01 11 11 Westchester Day School 16 2 18 21 3 24 20 5 25 221 81 301 211 51 261 Westchester Torah Academy 0 0 0 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 Westfield Day School (The) 1 1 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 3 3 0 1 1 Windward School (The) 29 8 37 10 0 10 9 0 9 10 0 10 13 0 13 Windward School (The) - MS Campus 0 0 0 13 14 27 17 11 28 12 12 24 10 16 26 Winston Preparatory School 0 2 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Xavier High School 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 York Prep School 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 172 200 372 146 208 354 157 223 380 167 213 380 171 256 427 Source: New York State Department of Education BEDS Reports Note: 1Corrected data provided by the Scarsdale Public Schools

Table 5 replicates the public school enrollment (K-12) of Scarsdale from Table 2 as well as the total number of resident students from the Scarsdale attendance area who are attending non-public schools shown in Figure 5. The total number of private and public school students, which does not include children who are home-schooled or those not enrolled in school, has been fairly stable in the last five years. The universe of students has varied from 5,106-5,172, a range of 66 students. Table 5 also shows the percentage of Scarsdale students attending public and private schools in the last five years. As the table shows, the percentage of students attending public school has ranged from 91.7%-93.1% with no apparent increasing or declining trend.

Table 5 Public and Private School Enrollments (K-12) in the Scarsdale Attendance Area 2015-16 to 2019-20

School Type 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

Public 4,775 4,778 4,769 4,726 4,745

Private 372 354 380 380 427

Total 5,147 5,132 5,149 5,106 5,172

Public % 92.8% 93.1% 92.6% 92.6% 91.7%

Private % 7.2% 6.9% 7.4% 7.4% 8.3%

Source: New York State Department of Education BEDS Report

Kindergarten Replacement

Kindergarten replacements were analyzed to determine whether there was any relationship between overall enrollment change and kindergarten replacement, which is the numerical difference between the number of graduating 12th graders and the number of entering kindergarten students. The district has experienced negative kindergarten replacement in eight of the last nine years. Negative kindergarten replacement occurs when the number of graduating 12th grade students is larger than the number of kindergarten students replacing them in the next year. Positive kindergarten replacement occurs when the number of graduating 12th grade students is less than the number of kindergarten students entering the district in the next year. As shown in Figure 5, negative kindergarten replacement has ranged from 25-123 students per year. In 2019-20, there was a loss of 63 students due to kindergarten replacement, as 372 twelfth graders graduated in 2018-19 and were replaced by 309 kindergarten students in 2019-20. In the last five years, the district has lost an average of 75 students per year due to kindergarten replacement.

Figure 5 Scarsdale Public Schools Historical Kindergarten Replacement 50 28 30

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 -10

-30 -25

-50 -43 -41

-70 -58

-67 -63 Number ofStudents -90 -80

-110

-130 -123

-150 Year

Figure 6 shows the annual change in total enrollment compared to kindergarten replacement. As the figure demonstrates, there appears to be a strong relationship, statistically speaking, between the overall change in enrollment and kindergarten replacement. Although this data represents a small sample, the correlation coefficient between the two variables was 0.81. Correlation coefficients measure the relationship or association between two variables; this does not imply that there is cause and effect between the two variables. Other variables, known as lurking variables, may have an effect on the true relationship between kindergarten replacement and total enrollment change. Negative correlation coefficients indicate that as one variable is increasing (decreasing), the other variable is decreasing (increasing). Positive correlation coefficients indicate that as one of the variables increases (decreases), the other variable increases (decreases) as well. The computed linear correlation coefficient is always between -1 and +1. Values near -1 or +1 indicate a strong linear relationship between the variables while values near zero indicate a weak linear relationship. Based on the correlation of 0.81, there appears to be a strong relationship between enrollment change and kindergarten replacement in the school district in the last nine years.

In each of the last nine years, the district’s losses due to negative kindergarten replacement were partially offset (or totally, resulting in an enrollment increase) by a net inward migration of students in the other grades (K to 1, 1 to 2, 2 to 3, etc.). This was confirmed previously as ten of the thirteen average survival ratios in the four-, five-, or six-year trends were above 1.000.

Figure 6 Comparison of K-12 Enrollment Change and Kindergarten Replacement 75

48 50 34 28 25 18 19 3

0 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 -9 -25 -25 -50 -41 -45 -43 -46 -43 -58 -75 -67 -63

Number of Students of Number -80 -100

-125 Enrollment Change Kindergarten Replacement -123 -150 Year

Birth Data

Birth data were needed to compute kindergarten enrollments, which were calculated as follows. Birth data, lagged five years behind their respective kindergarten classes, were used to calculate the survival ratio for each birth-to-kindergarten cohort. For instance, in 2014, there were 96 births in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area. Five years later (the 2019-20 school year), 309 children enrolled in kindergarten, which is equal to a survival ratio of 3.219 from birth-to-kindergarten. Birth counts and birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios are displayed in Table 6. Values greater than 1.000 indicate that some children are born outside of a community’s boundaries and are attending kindergarten in the school district five years later, i.e., an inward migration of children. This type of inward migration is typical in school districts with excellent reputations, because the appeal of a good school district draws families into the community. Inward migration is also seen in communities where there are a large number of new housing starts (or home resales), with families moving into the community having children of age to attend kindergarten. Birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios that are below 1.000 indicate that a number of children born within a community are not attending kindergarten in the school district five years later. This is common in communities where a high proportion of children attend private, parochial, charter, or out-of-district special education facilities, or where there is a net migration of families moving out of the community. It is also common in school districts that have a half-day kindergarten program where parents choose to send their child to a private full-day kindergarten for the first year.

Table 6 Birth Counts and Historical Birth-to-Kindergarten Survival Ratios in the Scarsdale Public Schools

Births in Kindergarten Birth-to- Birth Year1 School District Students Kindergarten Attendance Area Five Years Later Survival Ratio 2005 145 307 2.117 2006 150 310 2.067 2007 129 313 2.426 2008 133 350 2.632 2009 127 326 2.567 2010 100 319 3.190 2011 111 318 2.865 2012 128 325 2.539 2013 88 259 2.943 2014 96 309 3.219 2015 99 N/A N/A 2016 96 N/A N/A 2017 114 N/A N/A Note: 1Birth data were provided by the New York State Department of Health from 2005-2017.

Birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios have been significantly above 1.000 in each of the last ten years. However, in the last seven years, birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios have been higher, ranging from 2.539-3.219 (average = 2.851), as compared to the three years prior when they ranged from 2.067-2.426 (average = 2.203). This may reflect that a greater number of families with children under the age of 5 are moving into the community to enroll their children in kindergarten, or that fewer families are moving out of the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area. However, as discussed previously, it does not appear that more parents are choosing to enroll their child in public school rather than private or parochial school as the percentage of students attending public school has been fairly consistent. As the birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios are significantly above 1.000, this indicates that many children who were born in other communities are enrolling in the school district.

Births by the school district’s attendance area were provided by the New York State Department of Health from 2005-2017. Birth counts for 2018 and 2019 were not yet available. Births were estimated for 2018 and 2019 as these cohorts will become the kindergarten classes of 2023 and 2024. Using a three-year rolling average, 103 births are projected for 2018 and 104 births are projected for 2019.

Figure 7 shows the number of births in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area from 2005-2017. Births declined from a high of 150 in 2006 to a low of 88 in 2013. Since then, births have been slowly increasing. In 2017, there were 114 births, which is the highest value since 2012. With the exception of 2018-19 when there was a very small kindergarten class of 259 students, the decline in the number of births has not significantly affected the kindergarten total five years later. Excluding 2018-19, kindergarten enrollment has been fairly stable in the last decade, ranging from 307-350 students per year. The stability of the kindergarten enrollment, despite a decline in the birth rate, is likely due to the significant inward migration of families with children under the age of five as discussed previously.

Figure 7 Scarsdale Public Schools Attendance Area Birth Counts 2005-2017 200 180 150 160 145 129 133 140 127 128 111 114 120 100 96 99 96 100 88

Number ofBirths 40

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year

New Housing in the Scarsdale Public Schools Attendance Area

Municipal representatives from Scarsdale and Mamaroneck were contacted to provide a status update regarding new housing developments as reported in the December 2018 demographic study. In Scarsdale, there is the potential for three residential developments as shown in Table 7. The first development, The Heathcote, is nearing completion and will consist of 14 luxury apartment units on 2-4 Weaver Street. Eleven units have received certificates of occupancy (“COs”) while an additional three units are nearing completion.

Table 7 Potential New Residential Subdivisions in Scarsdale

Number Housing Development Notes of Units Type

11 units have received certificates of The Heathcote 14 Apartment occupancy. Three units are in the process of (2-4 Weaver Street) being completed.

Has not been approved. Little activity since 80 Garden Road 8 Single-Family December 2018 report.

Freightway Has not been approved. Two proposals have 220-285 Multi-family been submitted to the Planning Board by Redevelopment potential developers.

Total 242-307 Units

A second development of eight (8) detached single-family homes is proposed at 80 Garden Road. However, this development has not yet been approved and there has been little activity since the December 2018 demographic study.

Finally, there is the potential for the redevelopment of an empty parking lot (“Freightway site”) owned by the Village of Scarsdale, which also has not received approval. Recently, two prospective developers submitted proposals to the Village outlining their respective plans. The first proposal, Village Mews by LCOR and East End Capital, would be a mix of 285 rental and for-sale apartments in two separate residential buildings, where less than 10% of the units would have three or more bedrooms.

The second proposal by Avalon Bay Communities would consist of 220 duplex condominiums and townhouses with the following bedroom distribution: Studio (27), 1-bedroom (89), 2-bedroom (75), and 3-bedroom (29). A smaller development of 197 units was also submitted as an option in their proposal. It is anticipated that the Village of Scarsdale may select one of the submitted proposals in March 2020.

For the Freightway site to be redeveloped, rezoning would need to occur. As such, it might be two years before construction begins. In addition, the development is being marketed as a transit-oriented development (“TOD”) due to its proximity to the train station. Historically,

TODs have fewer students than housing developments not located near mass transit as occupants are likely to be Millennials and Baby Boomers, which are likely to have few school-age children. However, due to the appeal of the Scarsdale Public Schools, as observed in its significantly high birth-to-kindergarten ratios, this development may not conform to the demographics of other TODs.

As 80 Garden Road and the Freightway development have not been approved and that a specific proposal for the Freightway site has not been selected, their impact was not considered in this study. Developments that have been approved or are under construction are the only ones considered, as they would likely be constructed and occupied within the five-year enrollment projection timeframe. In addition, as most of the units in The Heathcote have COs, it was assumed that any children from this development would already be enrolled in the district and contained within the 2019-20 enrollment counts.

Regarding the section of Mamaroneck that sends to the Scarsdale Public Schools, there are no residential developments under construction, nor are there development applications that have been approved by the planning board. Most residential construction in Mamaroneck has been limited to building new homes after the demolition of an existing older home (“knockdowns”), which is a net change of zero housing units.

In summary, the baseline enrollment projections were not adjusted for additional children anticipated from new housing since it is unclear whether all of the proposed residential developments will ever get constructed and occupied within the next five years, which is the timeframe of this study. It is recommended that the Board continue to monitor the status of all proposed developments to determine the future impact on the school district.

Home Sales

In Figure 8, the number of annual home sales for detached single-family homes is shown from 2000-2019 for the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area. Home sales peaked in 2002 (279 sales) before declining to 142 sales in 2008 due to the banking and financial crises. Beginning in 2009, the number of sales steadily increased through 2014 (253 sales) before stabilizing. In 2019, there were 258 home sales, which is very similar to the sale totals prior to the banking and financial crises.

Figure 8 Detached Single-Family Home Sales Scarsdale Public Schools Attendance Area 2000-2019

300 279 258 251 253 253 242 250 233 233 237 237 234

229 226 231

202 205 195 201 200

160

150 142 Number ofSales

100

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Year Source: MLS- HGMLS Property Type- Single Family Zone, Area 6 School District: Scarsdale

Enrollment Projections

In three separate projections, enrollments were calculated at the school level from the 2020-21 school year through the 2024-25 school year, a five-year period. The school-level totals were then aggregated to determine the projected enrollments for the entire district. Three separate projections were computed due to the variability that has occurred in the district’s birth- to-kindergarten survival ratios, which will provide the district with a range of projections for planning purposes.

Enrollments for the ungraded special education students were computed by calculating the historical proportion of ungraded special education students with respect to the regular education subtotals at each grade configuration (K-5, 6-8, and 9-12) and multiplying that value by the future regular education subtotals.

Due to the average birth-to-kindergarten ratios being significantly above 1.000, the Grade Progression Differences (“GPD”) method was used to project kindergarten enrollments in the district. In this method, the change in the number of students, as opposed to the ratio, is computed for each grade progression. As compared to a ratio, a numerical change is less sensitive to the movement inward or outward of a few students and is preferred when grade sizes are small, or when survival ratios exceed 2.000. A positive value indicates an inward migration of students while a negative value indicates an outward migration of students. The computed differences in enrollment were averaged over a four-year (+197), five-year (+201), and six-year (+207 with outlier removed) period and these values were used to project kindergarten enrollments five years into the future.

To project kindergarten enrollments at the school level, the average historical proportion of the number of kindergarten students in each elementary school with respect to the districtwide total was used and multiplied by the districtwide projected kindergarten enrollments.

Projected K-12 enrollments using cohort-survival ratios based on historical data from the last four years follows in Table 8 and Figure 9. Total enrollment is projected to slowly decline throughout the projection period. In 2024-25, enrollment is projected to be 4,704, which would be a loss of 41 students from the 2019-20 enrollment of 4,745.

Table 8 Scarsdale Public Schools Projected Enrollments (K-12) Using Cohort-Survival Ratios and 4 Years of Historical Data 2020-21 to 2024-25

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 SE1 Total

2020-21 297 323 291 361 378 373 402 396 379 395 374 396 380 1 4,746

2021-22 294 311 337 302 375 383 379 410 395 387 390 379 393 1 4,736

2022-23 310 308 323 348 314 380 389 386 409 404 382 395 376 1 4,725

2023-24 301 325 320 333 361 317 386 397 385 418 399 387 392 1 4,722

2024-25 302 315 339 330 346 365 322 394 396 393 413 404 384 1 4,704

Note: 1Ungraded special education enrollment for the entire district

Figure 9 Scarsdale Public Schools Enrollment Projections 2020-21 to 2024-25

5,000 4,746 4,744 4,738 4,736 4,734 4,725 4,725 4,724 4,717 4,722 4,716 4,711 4,704 4,702 4,697

4,000

3,000

2,000 Number ofStudents

1,000 CSR 4-Yr. CSR 5-Yr. CSR 6-Yr.

0 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 Year

Projected K-12 enrollments using cohort-survival ratios based on historical data from the last five years follows in Table 9 and Figure 9. Using this method, total enrollment is projected to slowly decline to 4,702 in 2024-25, which would be a loss of 43 students from the 2019-20 enrollment.

Table 9 Scarsdale Public Schools Projected Enrollments (K-12) Using Cohort-Survival Ratios and 5 Years of Historical Data 2020-21 to 2024-25

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 SE1 Total

2020-21 300 323 294 360 378 375 402 392 377 391 376 396 379 1 4,744

2021-22 298 315 339 305 375 385 380 406 389 382 388 380 391 1 4,734

2022-23 316 313 329 348 317 382 390 384 403 394 379 392 376 1 4,724

2023-24 304 332 327 339 361 321 387 394 381 408 391 383 387 1 4,716

2024-25 304 319 349 337 353 367 325 391 391 386 405 396 379 0 4,702

Note: 1Ungraded special education enrollment for the entire district

Projected K-12 enrollments using cohort-survival ratios based on historical data from the last six years follows in Table 10 and Figure 9. In 2024-25, enrollment is projected to be 4,697, which would be a loss of 48 students from the 2019-20 enrollment.

Table 10 Scarsdale Public Schools Projected Enrollments (K-12) Using Cohort-Survival Ratios and 6 Years of Historical Data 2020-21 to 2024-25

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 SE1 Total

2020-21 306 323 291 356 376 375 402 390 378 389 378 394 379 1 4,738

2021-22 302 322 337 299 368 382 381 405 388 381 388 381 390 1 4,725

2022-23 321 317 335 346 310 374 388 383 403 391 380 391 377 1 4,717

2023-24 310 337 330 343 359 315 380 390 381 406 390 383 387 0 4,711

2024-25 310 326 351 338 356 365 320 382 388 384 405 393 379 0 4,697

Note: 1Ungraded special education enrollment for the entire district

Negative kindergarten replacement is expected to continue to occur in the future as shown in Figure 10. The magnitude of the negative kindergarten replacement is projected to be fairly stable throughout the projection period, ranging from 65-90 students per year. In 2024-25, negative kindergarten replacement is projected to range from 77-90 students in the three projections, which would be slightly higher than that of 2019-20 (-63).

Figure 10 Scarsdale Public Schools Projected Kindergarten Replacement

2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 -10

-30

-50

-70 -65 -67 -71 -69 -74 -72 -77 -75 -75 -77 -81

Number of Students of Number -83 -83 -90 -86 -90 CSR 4-YR CSR 5-YR CSR 6-YR -110 Year

Projected Enrollments by Grade Configuration

In Table 11, projected enrollments are shown by grade configuration (K-5, 6-8, and 9-12) for each of the three projections. Ungraded special education students were reassigned into each of the grade configurations.

Table 11 Projected Enrollments for Grades K-5, 6-8, and 9-12 for Each Projection Method

Historical K-5 6-8 9-12 2019-20 2,067 1,154 1,524 K-5 K-5 K-5 6-8 6-8 6-8 9-12 9-12 9-12 Projected CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR 4-YR 5-YR 6-YR 4-YR 5-YR 6-YR 4-YR 5-YR 6-YR 2020-21 2,024 2,031 2,028 1,177 1,171 1,170 1,545 1,542 1,540 2021-22 2,003 2,018 2,011 1,184 1,175 1,174 1,549 1,541 1,540 2022-23 1,984 2,006 2,004 1,184 1,177 1,174 1,557 1,541 1,539 2023-24 1,958 1,985 1,994 1,168 1,162 1,151 1,596 1,569 1,566 2024-25 1,998 2,029 2,046 1,112 1,107 1,090 1,594 1,566 1,561 5-year -69 -38 -21 -42 -47 -64 +70 +42 +37 Change

Elementary School Projections

Edgewood Elementary School

Historical enrollments for Edgewood from 2010-11 to 2019-20, and projected enrollments from 2020-21 to 2024-25, are shown in Table 12. From 2010-11 to 2017-18, enrollment was fairly stable, ranging from 401-427. However, enrollment has declined in the last two years. In 2019-20, enrollment is 372, which is a loss of 37 students from the 2010-11 enrollment of 409. In each projection, enrollments are projected to decline through 2023-24 before reversing trend. In 2024-25, enrollments are projected to range from 339-368 in the three projections, which would represent a loss of 4-33 students from the 2019-20 enrollment of 372.

Table 12 Historical and Projected Enrollments of Edgewood Elementary School

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 SE Total Historical1 2010-11 61 62 74 76 71 65 0 409 2011-12 64 70 64 73 82 70 0 423 2012-13 66 65 79 67 71 79 0 427 2013-14 69 67 66 79 64 73 0 418 2014-15 57 69 64 70 77 65 0 402 2015-16 66 59 76 62 67 79 0 409 2016-17 55 72 64 80 66 74 0 411 2017-18 67 51 70 65 84 64 0 401 2018-19 44 71 57 72 69 82 0 395 2019-20 50 46 69 62 73 72 0 372 CSR 4-Yr. Ratios 0.17932 1.0108 1.0206 1.0440 1.0418 0.9965 0.00003 CSR 5-Yr. Ratios 0.17772 1.0308 1.0366 1.0461 1.0475 1.0235 0.00003 CSR 6-Yr. Ratios 0.18352 1.0317 1.0496 1.0307 1.0294 1.0240 0.00003 Projected (CSR 4-Yr.) 2020-21 53 51 47 72 65 73 0 361 2021-22 53 54 52 49 75 65 0 348 2022-23 56 54 55 54 51 75 0 345 2023-24 54 57 55 57 56 51 0 330 2024-25 54 55 58 57 59 56 0 339 Projected (CSR 5-Yr.) 2020-21 53 52 48 72 65 75 0 365 2021-22 53 55 54 50 75 67 0 354 2022-23 56 55 57 56 52 77 0 353 2023-24 54 58 57 60 59 53 0 341 2024-25 54 56 60 60 63 60 0 353 Projected (CSR 6-Yr.) 2020-21 56 52 48 71 64 75 0 366 2021-22 56 58 55 49 73 66 0 357 2022-23 59 58 61 57 50 75 0 360 2023-24 57 61 61 63 59 51 0 352 2024-25 57 59 64 63 65 60 0 368 Notes: 1Data were provided by the New York State Department of Education BEDS reports and the Scarsdale Public Schools. 2Average proportion of kindergarten students with respect to district totals 3Average proportion of self-contained special education/Ungraded students with respect to K-5 subtotals

Fox Meadow Elementary School

Historical enrollments for Fox Meadow from 2010-11 to 2019-20, and projected enrollments from 2020-21 to 2024-25, are shown in Table 13. In general, enrollment had been slowly declining before reversing trend in the last year. In 2019-20, enrollment is 474, which is a loss of 28 students from the 2010-11 enrollment of 502. In each projection, enrollments are projected to be fairly stable before increasing in the last year of the projection period. In 2024- 25, enrollments are projected to range from 475-486 in the three projections, which would represent a gain of 1-12 students from the 2019-20 enrollment of 474.

Table 13 Historical and Projected Enrollments of Fox Meadow Elementary School

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 SE Total Historical1 2010-11 65 84 92 90 76 95 0 502 2011-12 55 76 91 90 89 78 0 479 2012-13 61 60 79 97 94 99 0 490 2013-14 88 63 65 87 97 91 0 491 2014-15 72 88 70 66 85 106 0 487 2015-16 75 74 89 72 75 95 0 480 2016-17 68 80 82 81 78 72 0 461 2017-18 70 70 87 84 84 78 0 473 2018-19 54 73 71 85 87 86 0 456 2019-20 84 57 79 75 88 91 0 474 CSR 4-Yr. Ratios 0.23192 1.0426 1.0613 1.0192 1.0360 1.0233 0.00003 CSR 5-Yr. Ratios 0.22742 1.0486 1.0730 0.9920 1.0478 1.0074 0.00003 CSR 6-Yr. Ratios 0.22892 1.0445 1.0607 0.9993 1.0655 1.0295 0.00003 Projected (CSR 4-Yr.) 2020-21 69 88 60 81 78 90 0 466 2021-22 68 72 93 61 84 80 0 458 2022-23 72 71 76 95 63 86 0 463 2023-24 70 75 75 77 98 64 0 459 2024-25 70 73 80 76 80 100 0 479 Projected (CSR 5-Yr.) 2020-21 68 88 61 78 79 89 0 463 2021-22 68 71 94 61 82 80 0 456 2022-23 72 71 76 93 64 83 0 459 2023-24 69 76 76 75 97 64 0 457 2024-25 69 72 82 75 79 98 0 475 Projected (CSR 6-Yr.) 2020-21 70 88 60 79 80 91 0 468 2021-22 69 73 93 60 84 82 0 461 2022-23 73 72 77 93 64 86 0 465 2023-24 71 76 76 77 99 66 0 465 2024-25 71 74 81 76 82 102 0 486 Notes: 1Data were provided by the New York State Department of Education BEDS reports and the Scarsdale Public Schools. 2Average proportion of kindergarten students with respect to district totals 3Average proportion of self-contained special education/Ungraded students with respect to K-5 subtotals

Greenacres Elementary School

Historical enrollments for Greenacres from 2010-11 to 2019-20, and projected enrollments from 2020-21 to 2024-25, are shown in Table 14. In general, enrollment was fairly stable from 2010-11 to 2016-17, ranging from 371-411. However, enrollment has declined in each of the last three years. In 2019-20, enrollment is 337, which is a loss of 74 students from the 2010-11 enrollment of 411. In each projection, enrollments are projected to slowly decline throughout the projection period. In 2024-25, enrollments are projected to range from 294-309 in the three projections, which would represent a loss of 28-43 students from the 2019-20 enrollment of 337.

Table 14 Historical and Projected Enrollments of Greenacres Elementary School

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 SE Total Historical1 2010-11 47 77 62 60 80 85 0 411 2011-12 74 48 75 61 59 78 0 395 2012-13 54 74 44 76 63 60 0 371 2013-14 61 55 82 48 73 64 0 383 2014-15 60 68 64 91 48 77 0 408 2015-16 59 67 68 60 85 49 0 388 2016-17 50 59 67 71 64 90 0 401 2017-18 49 54 60 68 73 65 0 369 2018-19 43 51 55 63 67 72 0 351 2019-20 37 53 53 60 65 69 0 337 CSR 4-Yr. Ratios 0.14552 1.1178 1.0249 1.0519 1.0151 1.0106 0.00003 CSR 5-Yr. Ratios 0.14842 1.0883 1.0187 1.0500 1.0280 1.0227 0.00003 CSR 6-Yr. Ratios 0.15572 1.0940 1.0149 1.0275 1.0092 1.0223 0.00003 Projected (CSR 4-Yr.) 2020-21 43 41 54 56 61 66 0 321 2021-22 43 48 42 57 57 62 0 309 2022-23 45 48 49 44 58 58 0 302 2023-24 44 50 49 52 45 59 0 299 2024-25 44 49 51 52 53 45 0 294 Projected (CSR 5-Yr.) 2020-21 45 40 54 56 62 66 0 323 2021-22 44 49 41 57 58 63 0 312 2022-23 47 48 50 43 59 59 0 306 2023-24 45 51 49 52 44 60 0 301 2024-25 45 49 52 51 53 45 0 295 Projected (CSR 6-Yr.) 2020-21 48 40 54 54 61 66 0 323 2021-22 47 53 41 55 54 62 0 312 2022-23 50 51 54 42 56 55 0 308 2023-24 48 55 52 55 42 57 0 309 2024-25 48 53 56 53 56 43 0 309 Notes: 1Data were provided by the New York State Department of Education BEDS reports and the Scarsdale Public Schools. 2Average proportion of kindergarten students with respect to district totals 3Average proportion of self-contained special education/Ungraded students with respect to K-5 subtotals

Heathcote Elementary School

Historical enrollments for Heathcote from 2010-11 to 2019-20, and projected enrollments from 2020-21 to 2024-25, are shown in Table 15. Enrollment has been fairly stable in the last ten years, ranging from 376-396. In 2019-20, enrollment is 376, which is at the lower end of the historical range. In each projection, enrollments are projected to decline before reversing trend in the last year of the projection period. In 2024-25, enrollments are projected to range from 391-394 in the three projections, which would represent a gain of 15-18 students from the 2019- 20 enrollment of 376.

Table 15 Historical and Projected Enrollments of Heathcote Elementary School

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 SE Total Historical1 2010-11 63 65 66 55 81 66 0 396 2011-12 56 64 65 62 56 80 0 383 2012-13 61 60 67 65 67 56 0 376 2013-14 70 58 60 68 65 69 0 390 2014-15 56 75 59 66 71 64 0 391 2015-16 55 60 74 58 65 68 0 380 2016-17 64 53 63 78 59 66 0 383 2017-18 61 70 57 65 78 60 0 391 2018-19 38 59 75 59 71 80 0 382 2019-20 74 37 61 75 59 70 0 376 CSR 4-Yr. Ratios 0.19132 1.0115 1.0603 1.0223 1.0308 1.0095 0.00003 CSR 5-Yr. Ratios 0.19382 0.9996 1.0577 1.0302 1.0274 1.0110 0.00003 CSR 6-Yr. Ratios 0.18952 1.0139 1.0435 1.0208 1.0189 1.0003 0.00003 Projected (CSR 4-Yr.) 2020-21 57 75 39 62 77 60 0 370 2021-22 56 58 80 40 64 78 0 376 2022-23 59 57 61 82 41 65 0 365 2023-24 57 60 60 62 85 41 0 365 2024-25 58 58 64 61 64 86 0 391 Projected (CSR 5-Yr.) 2020-21 58 74 39 63 77 60 0 371 2021-22 58 58 78 40 65 78 0 377 2022-23 61 58 61 80 41 66 0 367 2023-24 59 61 61 63 82 41 0 367 2024-25 59 59 65 63 65 83 0 394 Projected (CSR 6-Yr.) 2020-21 58 75 39 62 76 59 0 369 2021-22 57 59 78 40 63 76 0 373 2022-23 61 58 62 80 41 63 0 365 2023-24 59 62 61 63 82 41 0 368 2024-25 59 60 65 62 64 82 0 392 Notes: 1Data were provided by the New York State Department of Education BEDS reports and the Scarsdale Public Schools. 2Average proportion of kindergarten students with respect to district totals 3Average proportion of self-contained special education/Ungraded students with respect to K-5 subtotals

Quaker Ridge Elementary School

Historical enrollments for Quaker Ridge from 2010-11 to 2019-20, and projected enrollments from 2020-21 to 2024-25, are shown in Table 16. In general, enrollments were fairly stable from 2010-11 to 2015-16, ranging from 438-457. However, enrollment has increased in each of the last four years. In 2019-20, enrollment is 508, which is a gain of 56 students from the 2010-11 enrollment of 452. In each of the projections, enrollments are projected to be fairly stable, ranging from 491-512 in the three projections, which would be similar to the 2019-20 enrollment of 508.

Table 16 Historical and Projected Enrollments of Quaker Ridge Elementary School

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 SE Total Historical1 2010-11 71 69 78 85 72 77 0 452 2011-12 61 75 67 81 81 73 0 438 2012-13 71 65 76 72 85 82 0 451 2013-14 62 77 66 83 77 84 0 449 2014-15 81 62 76 73 82 83 0 457 2015-16 64 83 59 79 77 81 0 443 2016-17 81 72 88 64 78 80 0 463 2017-18 78 84 76 86 68 79 0 471 2018-19 80 81 83 80 93 69 0 486 2019-20 64 88 86 91 83 94 2 508 CSR 4-Yr. Ratios 0.25202 1.0585 1.0351 1.0421 1.0605 1.0128 0.00103 CSR 5-Yr. Ratios 0.25272 1.0751 1.0414 1.0528 1.0422 1.0193 0.00083 CSR 6-Yr. Ratios 0.24232 1.0650 1.0234 1.0501 1.0447 1.0130 0.00073 Projected (CSR 4-Yr.) 2020-21 75 68 91 90 97 84 0 505 2021-22 74 79 70 95 95 98 1 512 2022-23 78 78 82 73 101 96 1 509 2023-24 76 83 81 85 77 102 0 504 2024-25 76 80 86 84 90 78 0 494 Projected (CSR 5-Yr.) 2020-21 76 69 92 91 95 85 0 508 2021-22 75 82 72 97 95 97 0 518 2022-23 80 81 85 76 101 97 0 520 2023-24 77 86 84 89 79 103 0 518 2024-25 77 83 90 88 93 81 0 512 Projected (CSR 6-Yr.) 2020-21 74 68 90 90 95 84 0 501 2021-22 73 79 70 95 94 96 0 507 2022-23 78 78 81 74 99 95 0 505 2023-24 75 83 80 85 77 100 0 500 2024-25 75 80 85 84 89 78 0 491 Notes: 1Data were provided by the New York State Department of Education BEDS reports and the Scarsdale Public Schools. 2Average proportion of kindergarten students with respect to district totals 3Average proportion of self-contained special education/Ungraded students with respect to K-5 subtotals