Disaster Management and the Linkages between the Environmental, Regional and Spatial Planning in Syria Rampenbeheer en relaties tussen milieu-, regionale en ruimtelijke planning in Syrië Hussain Saleh Promotoren: prof. dr. P. De Maeyer, ereprof. dr. G. Allaert, prof. dr. A. A. Ibrahim Proefschrift ingediend tot het behalen van de graad van Doctor in de ingenieurswetenschappen Vakgroep Geografie Voorzitter: prof. dr. P. De Maeyer Faculteit Wetenschappen Vakgroep Civiele Techniek Voorzitter: prof. dr. ir. P. Troch Faculteit Ingenieurswetenschappen en Architectuur Academiejaar 2017 - 2018 ISBN 978-94-6355-066-6 NUR 957 Wettelijk depot: D/2017/10.500/101 Supervisors Prof. Dr. Philippe De Maeyer, (WE12), Ghent University, Belgium. Ereprof. Dr. Georges Allaert, (EA15), Ghent University, Belgium. Prof. Dr. Amir Ibrahim, HIMR, Tishreen University, Syria. Examining Board Chairman: Prof. Dr. Ir. Hendrik Van Landeghem (former director of studies), Ghent University, Belgium. Prof. Dr. Ir. Renaat De Sutter, (EA15), Ghent University, Belgium. Prof. Dr. Ir. Alain De Wulf (WE12), Ghent University, Belgium. Prof. Dr. Dirk Deschoolmeester, (formerly EB09), Ghent University, Belgium. Prof. Ir. Dirk Lauwers, (EA15), Ghent University, Belgium. Prof. Dr. Hans Leinfelder, (EA15), (KU Leuven), Belgium. Secretary Dr. Kristien Ooms, (WE12), Ghent University, Belgium. Ghent University (UGent), Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Jozef Plateaustraat 22, 9000 Gent, Belgium. Acknowledgement This thesis could not have been completed, especially during this critical time that Syria passes, without an extraordinary amount of valuable assistance from a wide variety of individuals and institutions in Syria and Belgium (Flanders), mainly Ghent University and Higher Commission for Scientific Research in Syria. Due to the multidisciplinary nature of this research, three professional supervisors with strong scientific reputations in most of the research activities of this thesis are involved. I am most grateful to my supervisors Prof. Philippe DE MAEYER, Prof. Georges ALLAERT, and Prof. Amir IBRAHIM for the great supervision and generous assistance. Also, this is extended to Prof. Renaat DE SUTTER, Prof. Dirk LAUWERS, Prof. Dirk DESCHOOLMEESTER, Prof. Alain DE WULF, Prof. Hans LEINFELDER, and Dr. Kristien OOMS and for reading the research and providing valuable notes and information. A very special hearty thanks to Ghent, the people of Ghent, Ghent University, ….. Finally, I dedicate this thesis to Shaden, Ali, Yasmeen, and ….. "Every person has two homelands, his own and Syria" Andre Parrot, Former Director of Louvers Museum God Bless SYRIA (Cradle of Civilization and the Gateway to History) To all who have made the ultimate sacrifice; to those who have been wounded, kidnapped or tortured in order to protect Syria; to all who support and will participate in the reconstruction of modern Syria; to all the martyrs of the greater Syria, I present this work with respect and gratitude. The road to success is always under construction Tables of contents Topic Page List of Figures I List of Tables IV Abbreviations V Preface IX Samenvatting XIV Executive summary XXI CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1 1.1 What is the research about? 1 1.1.1 The geophysical hazards 1 1.1.2 The climatological hazards 1 1.1.3 The technological and man-made hazards 2 1.1.4 The Other major challenges 2 1.2 The problem statement 3 1.3 The scope for improvement 5 1.3.1 The international dimension 6 1.3.2 The national dimension 7 1.3.3 The national STI policy dimension 8 1.4 The strategic spatial location of Syria 8 1.4.1 The Greater Syria 9 1.4.2 The Greater Syria after the first World war 10 1.4.3 The current Syria after the second war world 13 1.5 Why this study is important for Syria at this time? 14 1.6 The research Methods and process 15 1.6.1 The research plan 15 1.6.2 The main implemented methods for information 18 and data collection 1.6.3 The main sources of information and data 23 1.7 The limitations of the research 26 1.7.1 On the structure of the thesis 27 1.7.2 On the research fund 27 1.7.3 The Other impacts and challenges 30 1.8 The main research questions and objectives 30 1.8.1 The main research questions 31 1.8.2 The research objectives 32 1.9 The outlines of the thesis 32 Scientific research based optimisation and geo- 43 CHAPTER 2 information technologies for integrating disaster risk reduction into development management and planning 2.1 Introduction 43 2.2 Scientific research and technology development for 44 DRM 2.2.1 The geospatial disaster information system 46 2.2.2 The methodological approach 47 2.3 The Early warning systems for DRM 48 2.3.1 The objectives of early warning and its challenges 48 2.3.2 The early warning and monitoring disaster network 51 2.4 The intelligent disaster decision support system and 51 its central database 2.5 The geo-information technologies and its role in 53 DRM 2.5.1 The space satellites systems 54 2.5.2 The geographic information systems 55 2.5.3 The information communication technology 56 2.6 The artificial intelligence algorithms 57 2.6.1 The simulated annealing technique 58 2.6.2 The tabu search technique 58 2.6.3 The genetic algorithms 59 2.6.4 The ant colony optimization 59 2.7 The real-life applications based on the warning 60 disaster network 2.7.1 The HTP problem in the City of Brussels 60 2.7.2 The real-time monitoring network for water 61 management in Flanders 2.7.3 The hydrological modelling of Al-Kabir Al- 62 Shemalie Basin, Syria 2.7.4 The mobile big hazard data process and analysis to 63 reduce the risk of coastal hazards and disasters in the Mediterranean Sea 2.8 The spatial data infrastructure 64 2.8.1 The IT supporting activities of HCSR 66 2.9 Conclusion 67 The risk profile and an advanced emergency 73 CHAPTER 3 management system for natural disaster risk reduction and in Syria 3.1 Introduction 73 3.2 The topographic features and geographic divisions 74 of Syria 3.3 The general climate and weather 76 3.4 Disaster, hazard, vulnerability, risk and their factors 76 3.4.1 The disasters and hazards 76 3.4.2 The main factors associated with hazards and 78 disasters 3.4.3 The vulnerability and risk 78 3.4.4 The main factors of the vulnerability 79 3.4.5 The classification of disasters and hazards 80 3.4.6 The common impacts of hazards and disasters 83 3.5 The vulnerabilities to hazards and disasters in Syria 84 3.5.1 The high population density 84 3.5.2 The urban vulnerability 84 3.5.3 The fleeing refugees 85 3.5.4 The implications of informal settlements 85 3.5.5 Governance 86 3.5.6 The inadequate access to resources and information 87 3.6 The risk of hazards and disasters in Syria 87 3.6.1 The droughts, aridity and desertification 88 3.6.2 The sand and dust storms 93 3.6.3 The earthquakes, faults and seismic activities 93 3.6.4 The floods and dam collapse 97 3.6.5 The urban and forest fires 99 3.6.6 The oil spill hazards 101 3.6.7 The other hazards and disasters 101 3.7 The logistic infrastructure for supporting DRM 103 3.7.1 The electrical network 103 3.7.2 The telecommunication network 104 3.7.3 The aviation and airports 104 3.7.4 The ports and harbours 104 3.7.5 The roads network 105 3.7.6 The railway network 105 3.7.7 The waterways, water supply and sanitation 105 3.7.8 The public storage 106 3.7.9 The other supporting infrastructure 106 3.8 The national disaster risk management system and 106 relevant legislation 3.8.1 The national emergency management structure 107 3.8.2 The role of emergency management system in DRR 108 3.8.3 The legislative system 108 3.8.4 The institutional framework responsible for DRM 109 3.8.5 The disaster response routes 111 3.9 The institutional support and arrangement for DRM 112 3.9.1 The training and capacity building programs 113 3.9.2 The technical support activities using GTs 114 3.9.3 The research projects and supporting centre 115 3.10 The strategic goals, challenges and opportunities for 116 DRM 3.11 Conclusion 118 Disaster management and risk reduction: the 123 CHAPTER 4 impacts of sea level rise and other hazards related to tsunamis on Syrian coastal region 4.1 Introduction 123 4.2 The Syrian coastal region: the case study 124 4.3 The major problems and challenges in managing 126 Syrian coastal region 4.4 The coastal hazards in Syria 127 4.4.1 The tsunamis in the Mediterranean Sea 128 4.4.2 The sea level rise in the Mediterranean Sea 130 4.5 The common factors of coastal changes and hazards 130 4.5.1 The current and future drivers of coastal changes 131 4.6 The main impacts of local SLR scenarios- focus on 133 Lattakia City 4.6.1 The population impacts 135 4.6.2 The environmental and socio-economic impacts 135 4.6.3 The impacts on the water resources 136 4.6.4 The impacts on the agricultural and food resources 137 4.7 The component disaster risk management 138 4.7.1 The disaster management 139 4.7.2 The disaster risk reduction 139 4.7.3 The climate change adaptation and mitigation 140 4.7.4 The integration of climate change adaptation and 141 disaster risk reduction to support development activities 4.8 The disaster risk management cycle and risk 142 reduction measures 4.8.1 The main disaster risk management phases 143 4.8.2 The disaster risk management and planning 147 activities 4.8.3 The advances in disaster risk reduction and 148 management 4.8.4 The complementing disasters risk management 149 activities 4.9 The risk assessment (hazard and vulnerability 150 analysis) 4.9.1 The components of risk assessment 150 4.9.2 The selection of spatially relevantly hazards 152 4.9.3 The analytical