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Algeria's Political Drop-Outs Head to the Polls

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Algeria's Political Drop-Outs Head to the Polls CIDOB • Center for International for CIDOB • Center Relations and Development Studies notesISSN: 2013-4428 internacionals CIDOB ALGERIA’S POLITICAL DROP-OUTS 01 HEAD TO THE POLLS APRIL 2009 Algerians seem indifferent to the impact that the election on 9 April will inevitably have on the entire region Francis Ghilès Senior Researcher, CIDOB A presidential election will be held in Algeria on cated, have moved abroad. Ordinary people find it very hard to April 9th accept former guerrillas whom they know were responsible for killing members of their family being reinserted into their neigh- Posters of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who is standing for bourhood with the help of state subsidies. a third term of office, are plastered all over the cities of Algiers, Oran, Constantine and Bejaia. Algerian state television and radio As groups of young students mix on the campuses of Ben Ak- channels and much of the print media are full of the froth and noun at the University of Algiers, of Es Senia at the University bubble of electioneering. The government is doing what its peers of Oran and of Aboubakr Belkaïd at the University of Tlem- worldwide enjoy doing in the run up to polling day – throwing cen, women who sport a veil are usually as smartly turned money at different groups of electors. Last month the govern- out as those who do not and both men and women mingle ment cancelled the debt owed by farmers to state banks and told with ease. Many of them were very young when the civil war university students that individual grants would be increased raged and appear to have forgotten. They all know however from Dinars 2700 (Euros 270) every three months to Dinars 4010 that life is not about to become easier. A recent poll concludes – as of 2010. Algeria’s hard currency reserves stood at $138.5bn that half of men between 15 and 34 “certainly” or “probably” last December 31st so there is no shortage of spare cash. intend to emigrate – although such polling underestimates M Bouteflika’s two terms as president have coincided A recent poll concludes that half of men between 15 and with an end of the violence which, in the 1990s claimed 34 “certainly” or “probably” intend to emigrate 200,000 victims and 6,500 people killed after last being seen in the hands of the security forces – they are still deemed to the craving for travel and work abroad. For these young peo- have “disappeared”. Most of the Islamist guerrillas have come ple the depth of the crisis in Europe has yet to sink in. They down from the hills and amnesties have helped get them back crave what Europe has, until recently, offered: more job op- into civilian life. They have often bought a shop or gone into portunities, more freedom and more fun. trade of some kind. Among them are veterans of the Afghan wars, disaffected youths from the slums but also members of Meanwhile, a groundswell of religious observance is sweep- criminal gangs for whom the politicizing of banditry offered a ing over Algeria. On state controlled television, the five ritual unique means of social rehabilitation. Some of the worst massa- calls to prayer now interrupt news bulletins, something which cres of civilians in the late 1990s, not least in the region of Algiers, would have been unthinkable ten or fifteen years ago; debates can be explained by land grabbing - much coveted farming land on the death penalty on TV are deemed unnecessary because changed hands. The bitterness between those who are receptive the Koran “settled” the issue; a well orchestrated campaign led to Islamist ideas and the more secular inclined may have abetted by the Ministry of Culture, acting as the guardian of public mo- but among the latter group an estimated 600,000, often well edu- rality has closed a number of restaurants in Algiers since last au- notes internacionals CIDOB 01 . APRIL 2009 1 tumn on the pretext that their licence to sell alcohol had run out group. Few people will bother to vote. Algeria’s leading politi- or had not been paid, charges which were usually unfounded. cians have all refused to enter the fray: former general Liamine Such matters are traditionally dealt with by the local authorities. Zeroual who steered the ship of state through the very difficult The Ministry of Culture is thus acting as the state’s gendarme years from 1994 to 1999 and was elected president in 1995 in and taking over the prerogatives of other ministries. Whether what remains probably the only honest presidential poll ever such moralising attracts more voters to cast their ballot for Ab- held; Mouloud Hamrouche, the former army officer who, as delaziz Boutefika is doubtful. Restaurants will still serve alco- prime minister launched bold economic and political reforms hol, increasingly they serve wine in jugs and customers drink between 1989 and 1991; Hocine Ait Ahmed, the only surviv- it out of mugs in order, the visitor is told, to avoid offending ing member of the group of historiques leaders of the rebellion Muslim sensitivities. It comes as little surprise, in such circum- against France in 1954; Ali Benflis who directed Abdelaziz stances, that the former leader of the Armée Islamique du Salut, Bouteflika’s presidential campaign in 2000 and dared to stand Madani Mezrag says he never intended to stand as a candidate against the president in 2004 and the moderate Islamist leader in the forthcoming election as Abdelaziz Bouteflika is his pre- Abdallah Djaballah are nowhere to be seen. ferred candidate. A handful of carefully vetted opponents pose no risk to the incumbent’s chances of being elected for a third Speculation about what the president’s intentions might be af- five year term of office. ter he wins a fourth term is rife. He might reappoint Ahmed Ouyahia his prime minister who can be a competent admin- The annual volume of imported cars increased more than istrator and has developed a nice line in insulting his political three fold to 350,000 between 2000 and 2008 and explains peers. But, does it really matter who is prime minister since the job only requires distrib- uting spoils to second tier New enterprises are springing up, some Algerians are stakeholders in the system? Higher up, in a universe returning with good degrees from abroad to try their luck of perpetual deal making, where little is recorded let alone written down, power why the streets of the capital suffer from semi-permanent and money are distributed through informal alliances, through traffic gridlock. Imports of consumer goods from the West networks of kith and kin which bear little relation to the type and China have risen fast, fuelled by the country’s fast rising of analysis of culture and religion so often favoured by west- oil and gas income which accounts, as thirty years ago, for ern observers. Such analysis simply does not offer the key to 98% of hard currency receipts exports. As a senior IMF of- really understanding the political and social behaviour of the ficial visiting Algiers for the first time in nearly twenty years Algerian ruling class. What matters among such people is sib- remarked – the country’s economic “model” has hardly ling and regional rivalry, fascination with modern technology, changed since 1990. Only recently has the government taken notably the latest means of communication, the attraction of measures to rein imports in. women, the latest trendy shops in Paris and New York and money. Increasing piety cloaks their behaviour which is often The president has been dogged by ill health for the past three tinged with a sprinkling of prickly nationalism. years and as a result government can be paralysed for weeks. But major projects are moving, often thanks to the hard work of the 60,000 Chinese workers who have completed the new Political factions in action Houari Boumedienne airport terminal in Algiers (a project which was initiated in the early 1980s) and the new hospital in Oran The intense competition between factions reminds some ob- while continuing to work on the East West motorway. New servers of Russia except that in Algeria, speaking of “liberals” enterprises are springing up, some Algerians are returning and”conservatives” makes no historical sense. For other ob- with good degrees from abroad to try their luck, others born in servers, Algeria looks very much like any other Arab country, France of emigrant parents are coming back to test the waters – even if some of these have polished up their act so well that they many sense there will be more opportunities in the years ahead deceive western observers into believing they are more “mod- if only the leaders show any real vision of what they want Alge- ern” or more “democratic.” Stale continuity is a hallmark of ria to look like in ten years time and enact the appropriate eco- Algerian political life. The head of the Departement de Recherche nomic policy; if only they understand that the country’s future et de Sécurité has been the same ubiquitous General Mohamed wealth lies in its Diaspora, the hundreds of thousands of highly Mediene – universally known as Tewfik and now in his early qualified Algerians spread across Western Europe, the Gulf and 70s - for the past twenty years. Some observers argue that he North America where they are entrepreneurs, senior executives has been outfoxed by the president and his powerful minister in international companies and banks, doctors whose skills and of the Interior, Nourredine Yazid Zerhouni who has more than new patents are highly appreciated.
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