20 DECEMBER 1986 MEED 47

GOVERNMENT OF delivers about $500 million worth of strength to prevent Iran's forces weapons ordered before the revolu from establishing a permanent Head of State President tion. The affair caused much embar beachhead. rassment in Washington, but all the When the Iranians landed, there Cabinet facts have yet to be disclosed. was little between them and 8asra. The main focus of attention re Even so, they lacked sufficient Prime Minister Hossain Moussavi mains Iran's declared plan for a strength in depth to exploit the Oil Gholamreza Aqazadeh Foreign Affairs AhAkbar Velayati decisive effort to win the Gulf war initial breakthrough. This weakness, by spring 1987 Whatever the out coupled with logistical problems Agriculture &Rural AffairsAbbas AliZali come, the expected intensification may prevent Iran from ever Commerce Hassan Abedl Jaafari of fighting iscertain to cause further achieving a victory of sufficient Economy & Finance Mohammad Javad Iravani economic disruption in the coming magnitude either to win the war or Energy Mohammad Taqi-Banki months. cripple Baghdad. Roads &Transport Mohammad Saeedi Kya Iranian forces are now well- Construction Crusade BijanNamdar Zanganeh entrenched at Fao, and Baghdad's Heavy Industries Behzad Nabavi policy seems to be one of contain Industries Gholamreza Shafei Iraq ment. Weeks of heavy fighting Mines & Metals Mohammad Reza Ayatollahi proved expensive in terms of both Housing Serajeddin Kazeroum manpower and equipment, but Labour Abolqassem Sarhadizadeh Imports slashed failed to dislodge the Iranians. Posts, Telephones &Telegraphs Mohammad Gharazi On a wider level, Fao has brought Health Ali Reza Marandi to meet mounting a change in Iraqi tactics. In a bid to Education Mohammad Akrami cost ofwar regain the initiative, air attacks have Culture &Higher Education been stepped up on shipping in the Interior Hojatoleslam AliAkbar Mohtashemi GOVERNMENT optimism that 1986 Gulf — particularly tankers — and Justice would see a stronger performance on oil installations and other econo Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Mohsen Rafiqdust from the economy was shattered by mic targets. The raids have had a Information Mohammadi Reyshahn the sharp drop in the price of oil, marked impact on Iranian oil ex Islamic Guidance and sustained and intense fighting ports, and will probably be con Plan & Budget Organisation Massoud Roghani Zaniani in the Gulf war. tinued. Defence Colonel Mohammad Hussein Jalali For the first time in the war — The ferocity and sustained nature now in its seventh year — Iranian of the fighting — greater than at due to receive $500 million from the At the official level, the govern forces gained a foothold in Iraqi any point since the first two years of US, following instructions to ment has concluded several barter territory beyond the disputed bor the conflict — have taken their toll Washington from the US-Iran claims deals for Iranian non-oil goods; at der areas. On 9 February, Iranian financially. Estimates suggest that tribunal in The Hague to turn over the private level, business people commandos crossed the Shatt al- Baghdad may be spending up to the balance of a $3,667 million are seeking markets abroad for all Arab waterway to capture the aban $ 1,000 million a month on the war. escrow account set up in 1981 with sorts of agricultural produce and doned oil port of Fao. Taken by Had the price of oil stayed at frozen Iranian funds. France is also manufactured items, to gam foreign surprise, the Iraqi army failed to around $28 a barrel, the govern returning $330 million from a exchange outside the control of react with enough speed and ment would have had a reasonable $1,000 million loan made by the Bank Markazi. Shah's regime in 1974. On the political front, there is Financially, the government of widespread grumbling about eco GOVERNMENT OF IRAQ Prime Minister Hossain Moussavi is nomic issues, but no real threats to thus fairly secure. Nevertheless, the the establishment have emerged. Head of State. Prime Minister and Chairman of Revolution Command Council (RCC) President Saddam Hussain effects of reduced oil revenues are In July, the 83-member Assembly being felt throughout society. With of Experts confirmed its late-1985 RCC Vice-chairman Izzat Ibrahim industrial output down, unemploy decision to designate Ayatollah Vice-president Taha Mohieddin Maarouf ment has increased to perhaps 20 Hossain Ali Montazeri as Khomeini's per cent — or more — of the successor. In late 1986, people Cabinet workforce. In addition, inflation has associated with Montazeri were First Deputy PremierTaha Yassin Ramadan risen, after coming down to near arrested for alleged clandestine acti Deputy Premier, Foreign AffairsTariqAziz single figures in 1985. There are vities, apparently angering the Deputy Premier, DefenceAdnan Khairallah frequent disruptions in food sup ayatollah and leading to speculation Education Abdel-Kadir Izzadin plies, and shortages at the shops. In about a possible power struggle. Higher Education & Scientific Research Samir Mohammad Abdel- October, petrol rationing was reim- However, there was no real evi Wahab posed because of war damage to dence of such a struggle, and it Justice Munzer Ibrahim refineries, and to help to boost appeared that Montazeri was upset Finance Hisham Hasan Tawfiq strategic stockpiles. more by the manner of the arrests Housing &Construction Mohammad Fadel The economy has been put on a than the arrests themselves. Trade Hasan Ali war footing, as it was in the first year The incident coincided with a Irrigation Abdel-Wahab Mahmoud Abdullah of the Gulf war. Trying to turn bizarre effort by the US to enlist Labour & Social Affairs Bakr Mahmoud Rasoul adversity to virtue, the government Iran's support for attempts to free Interior Saadoun Shaker is now talking of a concerted effort US hostages held in Lebanon. Byall Culture & Information Latif Nasif al-Jassem to reach self-sufficiency through re accounts, Robert C McFarlane, for Transport &Communications Abdel-Jabber Abdel-Rahimal-Asadi duced dependence on oil earnings. mer national security adviser to Industry &Minerals Subhi YassinKhudeir How structured this campaign is President Reagan, in May made an Light Industries Tareq Hamad al-Abdullah will not be clear for some time, but unannounced visit to Tehran to Oil Qassem Ahmad Taqi al-Uraibi non-oil export earnings are rising. offer a resumption of weapons sup Planning Samal Majid Faraj The official target for this Iranian plies if Iran would use its influence Youth Affairs Abdel-Fattah Mohammad Amin year is $1,000 million — about with the Muslim radicals holding the Agriculture &Agrarian Reform AzizSaleh Hassan Al-Numan twice the level achieved before the hostages. Health Sadiq Hamid Alloush revolution. This may be over- According to majlis Speaker Local GovernmentAdnan Daoud Salman optimistic, but the government's Hashemi Rafsanjani, McFarlane's Awqaf (Religious Endowments) Abdullah FadelAbbas programme of promotion and in mission was spurned — although Minister of State for Military Affairs General Abdel-Jabbar Khalil centives has caused quite a stir Iran has publicly offered to mediate Shanshal among exporters. on the hostage issue if the US Speaker ofthe National Assembly Saadoun Hammadi