Mauritania Monthly Report for November 2002 Rapport
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FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM NETWORK MAURITANIA USAID project managed by Chemonics International Inc. TEL: (222) 525 39 10 FAX: (222) 525 39 18 E-mail: [email protected] MONTHLY REPORT FOR NOVEMBER 2002 RAPPORT MENSUEL DU MOIS DE NOVEMBRE 2002 This report covers the period from October 24 to November 26, 2002 Summary The summer rainy season is finally over. Rainfall deficits for 2002 in all agropastoral areas of the country are well above normal and way above the average for 1979-1999. The regions hardest hit by the lack of rain are Trarza, Brakna and Adrar, where rainfall conditions are the poorest they have been in the past ten years. Large farming areas of Hodh El Chargui, Hodh El Gharbi, Assaba and Guidimakha have been affected by the lack of rain and the small scattered pockets of crops or pasture visible here and there cannot possibly come anywhere close to meeting the needs of local residents, much less sustain trade with regions with no local production at all. The slump in dieri (rainfed highland crop) production (81 percent compared with 2001 which, itself, was a bad year for crop performance) has already affected rainfed single cropping areas and even areas devoted to flood-recession (lowland and walo) crops. The lean period continues in most grain-producing areas and food security conditions around the country are deteriorating. The growth cycles of crops in many dam areas of Aftout and Hodh El Gharbi and certain walo or flood-recession cropping areas of Trarza, Brakna and Gorgol are running behind schedule, which should mean yet another downward adjustment in the production forecasts released in October. After a fleeting improvement (in the wake of the September and October rains), grazing conditions are once again deteriorating. Pressure from grazing animals in privileged areas with good pasture production along the Malian border is so strong that large nomadic pastoralists have already moved out with their herds. Little by little, pastoralists are heading off in search of better grazing lands along traditional migratory routes leading towards Mali and lush grazing areas in Senegal. Thus, the only group benefiting from the short-lived improvement in grazing conditions was that of pastoralists raising small livestock. Pastoralists in Brakna and Hodh El Gharbi have already started to sell off their cattle at cut-rate prices. Prices for all staple foodstuffs are climbing on markets around the country, further weakening the purchasing power of households which, at this point, are completely dependent on sporadic distributions of food aid and remittances from immigrants living abroad. Even more important than this year’s slump in crop production (-24 percent compared with 2001-02 which, itself, was the worst of the last five crop years) is the fact of it coming on the heels of the loss of so many small livestock back in January, creating wide-spread privation. With their resources already depleted by this disaster, many communities are no longer able to manage production deficits with traditional coping strategies. Even if harvest forecasts for irrigated crops (+16 percent) and crops subject to controlled flooding (+33 percent) are borne out, these privately grown crops earmarked mainly for commercial sale are unlikely to ease the food crisis of a rural population which has already suffered great hardship, whose purchasing power is at its lowest level since 1972. As of November 26, Germany has supplied 1,166 MT of wheat, Spain has provided another 871 MT, Sweden has come up with 2,917 MT and the WFP emergency program has marshaled 16,231 MT of food aid. I. NATURAL CONDITIONS AND PRODUCTION FACTORS I A. Rainfall The summer rainy season is finally over. All hopes are now focused on prospects for winter rains, which could breathe new life into lowland crops and walo crops in small depression areas and, more importantly, spur pasture production in the north. Obviously, people fear a repeat of the storms of last January but, without the winter rains, large-scale pastoralists would suffer major losses. I B. Grazing conditions Grazing conditions are still extremely mixed. However, in general, there is a nationwide shortage of pasture for the country’s enormous animal population. Conditions in Trarza and Brakna and throughout most northern regions of the country (Adrar, Inchiri and Dakhlet Nouadhibou) are disastrous. The few pockets of good pasture land reported in the south along the country’s borders with Mali and Senegal are extremely degraded as a result of overgrazing by the large concentrations of animals in these areas. Migratory movements have become somewhat more organized and many pastoralists have already moved into Mali or southern Morocco. Those whose herds are too weak to travel long distances have chosen to sell off large numbers of animals, with the supply of animal feed becoming increasingly unpredictable as the price of feed continues to climb while livestock prices continue to fall. I C. Crop production factors by type of cropping system After this year’s poor harvests of dieri (rainfed highland) crops, prospects for walo crops (flood recession crops grown along the Senegal River) are not very reassuring. Not only is the size of the area planted in these crops way down, but the growth cycle of crops in many depression areas is running way behind schedule. Those crops that have been planted are undersized and, in some cases, stunted to the point that farmers have little faith in a successful harvest. They are counting on the prospect of winter rains to improve the water balance of these crops. The situation in lowland and dam areas is slightly better. Crops in these areas are at a relatively good stage of development for this stage of the growing season. However, infestations of pink stalk borers in lowland areas planted in rainfed crops are worrying local farmers. There has been no change in the status of irrigated grain crops since October. To help the population make up for part of their food deficit, extension agents attached to the Ministry of Rural Development and Economy are encouraging farmers (primarily women’s cooperatives) to get involved in vegetable farming. I D. Assessment of conditions in agropastoral areas The spatial stratification observed earlier in November is becoming increasingly blurred, with overgrazing wiping out any differences in grazing conditions. Large-scale cattle drivers are already in Mali and camel drivers are planning to head south as soon as their animals finish their annual salt cure. Pastoralists in the northern part of the country are anxiously awaiting the winter rains. Without cold air masses bringing rain to grazing areas in the Sahara and northern Mauritania, they can expect to suffer enormous losses. Pastoralists raising small livestock are less concerned, particularly those whose herds consist mostly of goats. Goats, which are able to feed on woody pasture, are in extremely good physical condition and their selling price is steadily rising. The condition of crops shows little change from October. I D1. Areas in good condition As predicted in October, there are no major changes in conditions in farming areas. The size of the area planted in crops has changed very little and, despite the October rains, pasture production has languished on grazing lands overrun by large concentrations of animals. Grain availability from small-scale dieri crop production in privileged areas of the country (Maghama department in Gorgol, Sélibaby department in Guidimakha, Kankossa department in Assaba, Amourj department in Hodh El Chargui, Touil district in Hodh El Gharbi and Fassala Néré district in Hodh El Chargui) could improve slightly with harvests of lowland crops currently in the height growth stage of development. I D2. Areas in average condition These areas are concentrated in eastern Gorgol (in southern and central M’Bout department) where lowland crops are doing well and pasturelands, while not as lush as usual, are still able to sustain a good part of the local animal population. Ould Yengé department in northern Guidimakha and the southwestern reaches of Barkéol department in Assaba are in the same condition. Conditions in Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi are somewhat more mixed, with only a few small pockets of dieri harvests in Tintane (Hodh El Gharbi), Amourj, Djiguenni and Bassikoumou (Hodh El Chargui) departments. I D3. Areas in poor condition The slight improvement in grazing conditions in Brakna and Trarza in the wake of the September rains was short-lived, as conditions quickly deteriorated. Any existing pasture in these areas consisting of nonherbaceous vegetation soon dried up. The size of the area planted in irrigated crops is down sharply, with many debt-ridden farming communities unable to do any planting at all this year. Local residents are pinning all their hopes on the small pockets of walo crops and on current vegetable crops. There is no pasture available anywhere in Adrar, Inchiri or Nouadhibou. II. FOOD OUTLOOK The food outlook for pastoralists raising small livestock is still good, but the situation of farmers in the Senegal River Valley and Aftout is critical. The WFP and CSA (Food Security Commission) are continuing to distribute food, but there have been no further announcements of forthcoming assistance over and above the aid mentioned in the October report by FEWSNET (16,231 MT of emergency aid from the WFP, 1,166 MT of wheat from Germany, 871 MT of wheat from Spain and 297 MT of wheat from Sweden). II A. Areas in good condition Food security conditions are improving in a narrow belt running along the country’s border with Mali, between Maghama and Bassikounou. Upcoming harvests of rainfed lowland crops in late December or early January could meet as many as 4 if not 5 months worth of food needs, up from the 3 to 4 month projection released in October.