‹ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM NETWORK USAID project managed by Chemonics International Inc.

TEL: (222) 525 39 10 FAX: (222) 525 39 18 E-mail: [email protected]

MONTHLY REPORT FOR NOVEMBER 2002 RAPPORT MENSUEL DU MOIS DE NOVEMBRE 2002

This report covers the period from October 24 to November 26, 2002

Summary

The summer rainy season is finally over. Rainfall deficits for 2002 in all agropastoral areas of the country are well above normal and way above the average for 1979-1999. The regions hardest hit by the lack of rain are Trarza, Brakna and Adrar, where rainfall conditions are the poorest they have been in the past ten years. Large farming areas of Hodh El Chargui, Hodh El Gharbi, Assaba and Guidimakha have been affected by the lack of rain and the small scattered pockets of crops or pasture visible here and there cannot possibly come anywhere close to meeting the needs of local residents, much less sustain trade with regions with no local production at all.

The slump in dieri (rainfed highland crop) production (81 percent compared with 2001 which, itself, was a bad year for crop performance) has already affected rainfed single cropping areas and even areas devoted to flood-recession (lowland and walo) crops. The lean period continues in most grain-producing areas and food security conditions around the country are deteriorating. The growth cycles of crops in many dam areas of Aftout and Hodh El Gharbi and certain walo or flood-recession cropping areas of Trarza, Brakna and Gorgol are running behind schedule, which should mean yet another downward adjustment in the production forecasts released in October.

After a fleeting improvement (in the wake of the September and October rains), grazing conditions are once again deteriorating. Pressure from grazing animals in privileged areas with good pasture production along the Malian border is so strong that large nomadic pastoralists have already moved out with their herds. Little by little, pastoralists are heading off in search of better grazing lands along traditional migratory routes leading towards Mali and lush grazing areas in Senegal. Thus, the only group benefiting from the short-lived improvement in grazing conditions was that of pastoralists raising small livestock. Pastoralists in Brakna and Hodh El Gharbi have already started to sell off their cattle at cut-rate prices.

Prices for all staple foodstuffs are climbing on markets around the country, further weakening the purchasing power of households which, at this point, are completely dependent on sporadic distributions of food aid and remittances from immigrants living abroad.

Even more important than this year’s slump in crop production (-24 percent compared with 2001-02 which, itself, was the worst of the last five crop years) is the fact of it coming on the heels of the loss of so many small livestock back in January, creating wide-spread privation. With their resources already depleted by this disaster, many communities are no longer able to manage production deficits with traditional coping strategies. Even if harvest forecasts for irrigated crops (+16 percent) and crops subject to controlled flooding (+33 percent) are borne out, these privately grown crops earmarked mainly for commercial sale are unlikely to ease the food crisis of a rural population which has already suffered great hardship, whose purchasing power is at its lowest level since 1972.

As of November 26, Germany has supplied 1,166 MT of wheat, Spain has provided another 871 MT, Sweden has come up with 2,917 MT and the WFP emergency program has marshaled 16,231 MT of food aid.

I. NATURAL CONDITIONS AND PRODUCTION FACTORS

I A. Rainfall

The summer rainy season is finally over. All hopes are now focused on prospects for winter rains, which could breathe new life into lowland crops and walo crops in small depression areas and, more importantly, spur pasture production in the north. Obviously, people fear a repeat of the storms of last January but, without the winter rains, large-scale pastoralists would suffer major losses.

I B. Grazing conditions

Grazing conditions are still extremely mixed. However, in general, there is a nationwide shortage of pasture for the country’s enormous animal population. Conditions in Trarza and Brakna and throughout most northern regions of the country (Adrar, Inchiri and Dakhlet ) are disastrous. The few pockets of good pasture land reported in the south along the country’s borders with Mali and Senegal are extremely degraded as a result of overgrazing by the large concentrations of animals in these areas. Migratory movements have become somewhat more organized and many pastoralists have already moved into Mali or southern Morocco. Those whose herds are too weak to travel long distances have chosen to sell off large numbers of animals, with the supply of animal feed becoming increasingly unpredictable as the price of feed continues to climb while livestock prices continue to fall.

I C. Crop production factors by type of cropping system

After this year’s poor harvests of dieri (rainfed highland) crops, prospects for walo crops (flood recession crops grown along the Senegal River) are not very reassuring. Not only is the size of the area planted in these crops way down, but the growth cycle of crops in many depression areas is running way behind schedule. Those crops that have been planted are undersized and, in some cases, stunted to the point that farmers have little faith in a successful harvest. They are counting on the prospect of winter rains to improve the water balance of these crops.

The situation in lowland and dam areas is slightly better. Crops in these areas are at a relatively good stage of development for this stage of the growing season. However, infestations of pink stalk borers in lowland areas planted in rainfed crops are worrying local farmers.

There has been no change in the status of irrigated grain crops since October. To help the population make up for part of their food deficit, extension agents attached to the Ministry of Rural Development and Economy are encouraging farmers (primarily women’s cooperatives) to get involved in vegetable farming.

I D. Assessment of conditions in agropastoral areas

The spatial stratification observed earlier in November is becoming increasingly blurred, with overgrazing wiping out any differences in grazing conditions. Large-scale cattle drivers are already in Mali and camel drivers are planning to head south as soon as their animals finish their annual salt cure. Pastoralists in the northern part of the country are anxiously awaiting the winter rains. Without cold air masses bringing rain to grazing areas in the Sahara and northern Mauritania, they can expect to suffer enormous losses.

Pastoralists raising small livestock are less concerned, particularly those whose herds consist mostly of goats. Goats, which are able to feed on woody pasture, are in extremely good physical condition and their selling price is steadily rising.

The condition of crops shows little change from October.

I D1. Areas in good condition

As predicted in October, there are no major changes in conditions in farming areas. The size of the area planted in crops has changed very little and, despite the October rains, pasture production has languished on grazing lands overrun by large concentrations of animals. Grain availability from small-scale dieri crop production in privileged areas of the country ( department in Gorgol, Sélibaby department in Guidimakha, department in Assaba, department in Hodh El Chargui, district in Hodh El Gharbi and Néré district in Hodh El Chargui) could improve slightly with harvests of lowland crops currently in the height growth stage of development.

I D2. Areas in average condition

These areas are concentrated in eastern Gorgol (in southern and central M’Bout department) where lowland crops are doing well and pasturelands, while not as lush as usual, are still able to sustain a good part of the local animal population. Ould Yengé department in northern Guidimakha and the southwestern reaches of Barkéol department in Assaba are in the same condition.

Conditions in Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi are somewhat more mixed, with only a few small pockets of dieri harvests in (Hodh El Gharbi), Amourj, and Bassikoumou (Hodh El Chargui) departments.

I D3. Areas in poor condition

The slight improvement in grazing conditions in Brakna and Trarza in the wake of the September rains was short-lived, as conditions quickly deteriorated. Any existing pasture in these areas consisting of nonherbaceous vegetation soon dried up. The size of the area planted in irrigated crops is down sharply, with many debt-ridden farming communities unable to do any planting at all this year. Local residents are pinning all their hopes on the small pockets of walo crops and on current vegetable crops. There is no pasture available anywhere in Adrar, Inchiri or Nouadhibou.

II. FOOD OUTLOOK

The food outlook for pastoralists raising small livestock is still good, but the situation of farmers in the Senegal River Valley and Aftout is critical. The WFP and CSA (Food Security Commission) are continuing to distribute food, but there have been no further announcements of forthcoming assistance over and above the aid mentioned in the October report by FEWSNET (16,231 MT of emergency aid from the WFP, 1,166 MT of wheat from Germany, 871 MT of wheat from Spain and 297 MT of wheat from Sweden).

II A. Areas in good condition

Food security conditions are improving in a narrow belt running along the country’s border with Mali, between Maghama and Bassikounou. Upcoming harvests of rainfed lowland crops in late December or early January could meet as many as 4 if not 5 months worth of food needs, up from the 3 to 4 month projection released in October. In a normal year, rainfed grain production in this area will meet 8 to 9 months worth of needs for a typical farm family. When conditions in this part of the country are especially good, it is the main source of supply for the nation’s urban population centers, before markets in border areas are flooded with Malian grain.

II B. Areas in average condition

The size of areas in this category is shrinking with the rapid deterioration in grazing conditions around the country. Yields for rainfed crops were mediocre at best (0.5 to 0.6 MT/ha versus 0.8 to 1.0 MT/ha on average). For the most part, households in these areas are looking to improve their food access by selling small livestock. Food insecurity risks in these areas are still rather high for this time of year. The progress of lowland crops is such that food security conditions could improve if damage from grain-eating birds can be controlled, but even the most optimistic forecasts show crop production covering three months worth of needs at best.

II C. Areas in poor condition

As yet, there have been no distributions of food aid anywhere in Aftout or in certain departments in the Senegal River Valley (Kaëdi, Bababé, Boghé, R’kiz and ). Households in these areas are still extremely vulnerable to food insecurity problems. Their main survival mechanism is based on remittances from immigrants living outside the country.

Areas with cyclical food deficits also include farming and grazing areas of Adrar, Inchiri and Dakhlet Nouadhibou, where crop and animal production conditions have been especially poor throughout the year. Food crisis management mechanisms in these areas are invariably grounded in distributions of free food aid and sales of livestock.

III. CURRENT FOOD AVAILABILITY AND ACCESS

III A. Nationwide situation

The CILSS has drawn up a projected grain balance sheet for Mauritania based on harvest forecasts released by the Policy-Making, Monitoring and Evaluation Office (DPSE) and corroborated by the FAO/CILSS/WFP mission (Table I). Table I: PROJECTED GRAIN BALANCE SHEET FOR 2002/03

POPULATION AS OF 04/30/2003 2,712,000 INHABITANTS I. AVAILABILITY IN MT 127,000

1. PRODUCTION • GROSS PRODUCTION 99,700 • AVAILABLE PRODUCTION 67,700

2. OPENING INVENTORIES 59,300 • ON-FARM 0.0 • OTHER 59,300 II. NEEDS IN MT 556,800

PER CAPITA ANNUAL CONSUMPTION STANDARD 176 KG

1. TOTAL HUMAN COMSUMPTION 477,200 2. CLOSING INVENTORIES 79,000 • ON-FARM …. • OTHER T9,000 III. GROSS SURPLUS (+)/DEFICIT (-) IN MT (-429,800)

The deficit (160,000 MT) is made that much harder to manage by its size and by the fact that the country has now had a string of four years of production shortfalls. Stepped-up commercial imports can do nothing to improve household access to foodstuffs sold on local markets. Already staggering under the effects of last January’s storms, a string of poor harvests and their large debts to local merchants, many households are no longer able to muster even one regular daily meal.

III B. Current food situation in neighboring countries

Imports of Malian grain are being continuously stepped up and there are already reports of Malian sorghum on markets in Adel and Touil. Sorghum supplies on the Sélibaby and Kaëdi markets traditionally brought in from Kayes (in Mali) are still limited.

The dash of Mauritanian pastoralists and their animals to grazing lands in Mali is a clear sign that grazing conditions in that country are still better than in Mauritania. In contrast, the condition of pasturelands in northern Senegal (along the Mauritanian border) is no better than in Mauritania and migrating herds are forced to head towards the Groundnut Basin or to far-off grazing lands in the Ferlo Valley.

III B1. Supply of staple foodstuffs and price trends

Markets in the country’s large urban population centers have ample supplies of imported staple foodstuffs, but prices are skyrocketing. Market supplies in rural areas of the country are tightening with merchants worried about stocking products for too long a time which they may be unable to sell. With fewer farmers buying on credit and care packages from immigrants living abroad, merchants are selling less and less local grain. In fact, prices may still be rising, but the volume of sales is down. With no income coming in, a number of merchants have closed up shop and started trading in livestock.

Prices for staple food products are climbing on all retail markets. In Bababé, for example, the price of a kilo of local rice, which had dropped from 140 UM in September down to 130 UM in October, shot back up to150 UM, despite ongoing harvests of paddy rice. On the Sebkha retail market in Nouakchott, the price of a kilo of imported rice jumped from 200 to 220 UM, and the cost of a liter of oil rose from 300 to 320 UM, or to 80 UM per quarter liter. Current food problems (poor crop performance) are being compounded by the effects of the new monetary stance (the tacit devaluation of the “ouguiya” on the local foreign exchange market) and of heavy demand during the month of Ramadan.

III B2. FOOD ACCESS

Harvests of rainfed crops have improved food access for households in southeastern Gorgol, southern Guidimakha, southern Assaba and farming areas in the southern reaches of Tintane, Timbédra, Djiguenni and Amourj departments. Grain production in Bassikounou department is adequate, particularly in Fassala Néré district. Food access in other rural areas of the country varies according to the purchasing power of the local population. Under current conditions, pastoralists raising small livestock are in the best position, with their purchasing power bolstered by the boost in the market value of their animals (with the tightening of supplies). Household food access in areas in poor condition (Aftout, the Senegal River Valley and “adwaba” settlements in central Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi, northern and eastern Adrar, northern and western Inchiri and southern and eastern Dakhlet Nouadhibou) is dependent on the ability of migrating family members to marshal the necessary funds to help out their families back home. Without a staggered food distribution program for residents of these areas, food insecurity problems will continue to mount until the onset of the rains (in January or September).

Food access for residents of areas in average condition is contingent on the condition of crops in lowland areas. Obviously, it is unrealistic to expect these harvests to make up for shortfalls in dieri crop production but, at the very least, they should cover the food needs of local households for one or two months.

The food situation in fringe areas of Nouakchott and Nouadhibou is deteriorating. Nutritional and health data obtained from the Regional Health and Social Welfare Service for Dakhlet Nouadhibou by a FEWS NET representative touring the area illustrate the seriousness of the food situation of households in squatter settlements. Though the city was visited after the resumption of fishing activities (fishing was suspended in September and October for fishery management purposes), local households were still having an extremely hard time putting together even one regular daily meal.

IV. AREAS AND GROUPS CURRENTLY AT RISK

Pastoralists in Trarza and farmers in Aftout and the Senegal River Valley are still being classified as extremely food insecure but, as yet, have not been targeted by any food aid programs. However, the WFP is planning to distribute two months worth of full rations (2,266 MT of foodstuffs) to farm families in Aftout in early December, with another 1,355 MT of food aid scheduled to be distributed sometime in late December to residents of other near-by areas.

Food security conditions in Assaba, Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi had begun to improve under the combined effect of harvests of rainfed crops, improvements in grazing conditions and distributions of food aid by the CSA and WFP. However, the current respite for farmers in “adwaba” settlements in Kankossa and Barkéol departments (in Assaba), and Aïoun El Atrouss departments (in Hodh El Gharbi) and Djiguenni, Amourj and western Bassikounou departments (in Hodh El Chargui) whose status has been upgraded from extremely to highly food-insecure could well be short lived. Deteriorating grazing conditions in the wake of the massive influx of animals from Trarza, Brakna and Tagant, rising prices for staple foodstuffs, limited exports of grain from Mali (though up from October) and dismal harvest prospects for lowland crops are, once again, threatening to make these population groups extremely vulnerable to food insecurity problems.

The situation of residents of squatter settlements in urban fringe areas is becoming increasingly precarious. Children and adults alike are showing visible signs of malnutrition (tooth loss, night blindness, œdema, swollen abdomens, particularly in the case of children). According to the regional health service, data compiled from different health care facilities in Nouadhibou, the country’s second largest city and main financial center, puts the global malnutrition rate at 11.6 percent. Approximately 41 percent of children examined at such facilities were suffering from diarrhea linked to nutritional problems. Of the 4,400 children currently classified as malnourished, only 21 percent are being treated at nutritional rehabilitation and education centers (CRENs). Diarrheal diseases or other ailments associated with poor nutrition account for 24 percent of all pathologies treated at health care facilities (for all age groups).

Many of the households surveyed by FEWS NET in squatter settlements in Nouadhibou (Voum Base and Mvejirat) claim that they are eating only one meal a day. A typical meal consists of rice or wheat paste, which is eaten with mackerel or milk. Portions are small, as prices for all staple foodstuffs continue to skyrocket.