‹ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM NETWORK A USAID project managed by Chemonics International Inc.

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MONTHLY REPORT FOR JUNE 2003 This report covers the period from May 30 to June 30, 2003

Summary

The start-up of the 2003 relief program in early June helped solidify the effects of the 2002 program, which prevented the food crisis affecting Aftout, central Hodh El Gharbi and Hodh El Chargui and parts of the Senegal River Valley from growing into a full-fledged famine.

However, the situation of many households in these areas bypassed by this program is still alarming, with their very survival dependent on help from migrating family members and assistance from those fortunate enough to receive emergency aid.

All current coping and survival strategies basically revolve around the relief program and remittances (of food and cash) from migrating family members. Traditional local survival strategies (selling small animals and jewelry, borrowing, eating wild plant foods, skipping meals, etc.) have been stretched beyond their limits, with many households having nothing left to sell or mortgage. It is crucial to begin thinking about programs designed to help rebuild this family capital since, even if things should manage to get back to normal, it is unlikely that these destitute households will be able to make it through yearly structural deficit periods or to contain an extended crisis

Despite the inadequate volumes of aid distributed and the fact that subsidized sales programs are not always in line with household purchasing power, targeted families appear to be satisfied with the way in which the aid is being dispensed by local NGOs (LWF, ACORD, OXFAM, WORLD VISION) on behalf of the World Food Program (WFP).

According to the Food Security Commission (CSA), the European Union has pledged 18,000 MT of aid, which is scheduled to be distributed to households in selected communes in the north, Guidimakha, Tagant, Assaba and Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi, where food security conditions have sharply deteriorated since March of this year.

Pastoralists in the southeast are not reassured by the first useful rainfall in that part of the country, stepping up animal sales in an attempt to prevent subsequent losses. A comparison with last year and with the average for 1990-99 shows an improvement in rainfall conditions over last year, with only a few exceptions (Kobonni, , , M’Bout, Selibaby and ).

There has been a substantial improvement in coarse grain supplies with imports of maize from Senegal and of Malian sorghum and millet released by farmers and grain traders in that country, following the more or less normal start of this year’s rainy season. As a result, sorghum prices are down by 10 to 20 UM/ kg on markets in border areas (Kaëdi, Sélibaby, and Adel ). Prices for food products sold commercially (with the exception of wheat) continue to rise despite ongoing relief programs, shooting up sharply after the failed coup d’état.

Prices for livestock are also climbing. The outlook for this year’s rainy season could account for the decision by pastoralists to curtail sales and raise prices.

Many extremely food-insecure households in the outskirts of seats of local government in rural areas and in urban slum areas of , and Zouerate have still not benefited from any sort of assistance program.

I. NATURAL CONDITIONS AND PRODUCTION FACTORS

I A. Rainfall

With the rainy season already well underway (Table I) throughout the south (with the exception of southwestern Brakna and southern Trarza which, while no longer considered rainfed farming areas, are still important livestock-raising areas), dry-farmed crops planted in depression areas in , and departments are beginning to sprout.

Table I: Comparison of rainfall totals for June Source of data: AGRHYMET/Mauritania Tabulated by FEWS NET/Mauritania

Region Department Station Type of area Total as Compared Compared of with with 6/30/03 6/30/02 average for 1990-99 HODH EL AMOURJ Amourj Agropastoral area 46.9 +30.6 +20.3 CHARGUI BASSIKOUNOU Bassikounou Agropastoral area 56 + 56 + 27.4 TIMBEDRA Timbédra Agropastoral area 20.5 + 5.1 +1.7 HODH EL Tamchakett Farming area 14.5 +14.5 +4.6 GHARBI (lowland crops) Kobenni Farming area 5.3 -3 NA Touil Farming area 9.6 +1.1 -26.5 ASSABA KANKOSSA Kankossa Agropastoral area 19.1 -10.7 -6.5 Barkéol Farming area 30.2 +16.6 +21.2 Boumdeïd Farming area 13.7 +13.7 +8.4 (lowland crops) GORGOL MAGHAMA Maghama Farming area 11.2 -55.4 -5.5 Monguel Farming area 39.5 +35.5 +30.1 M’BOUT M’Bout Farming area 15.5 - 9 -0.4 KAEDI Kaëdi Farming area 63.2 +53.4 +53.7 BRAKNA M’BAGHE M’Bagne Farming area 19.3 +19.3 +6.6 BOGHE Bogué Farming area 16.3 +16.3 +5.6 MAGTA-LAHJAR Magta-Lahjar Farming area 27 +25.5 +21.9 TRARZA Boutilimit Livestock-raising area 0 0 -2 Mederdra Livestock-raising area 0 0 -5.3 Rosso Farming area 0 0 -5.3 (irrigated crops) TAGANT Tidjikja Livestock-raising area 8.2 +8.2 +4.7 Moudjéria Farming area 53 +53 +48 GUIDMAKHA SELIBABY Sélibaby Farming area 19.9 -56.5 -42.3 SELIBABY Gouraye Farming area 30.0 -56.3 -12.2 Ould Yengé Farming area 0 0 NA A comparison with 2002 and the average for 1990-99 already shows rainfall surpluses at a number of rain gauging stations as of June 30, with stations in the southeast (-Néré, Bassikounou, Amourj, , Bousteïla) reporting the highest ten-day rainfall totals. Rainfall amounts for the third dekad of June were high enough for farmers to begin planting early maturing wet crops in Bababé department in Brakna, Kaëdi and Monguel departments in Gorgol and throughout southern Hodh El Chargui and Guidimakha.

I B. Conditions in livestock-raising areas

The condition of pasturelands is more or less the same as in May. Though rainfall in the country’s southeastern departments and in southwestern Aftout has helped improve livestock watering conditions in these areas, pastoralists in many livestock-raising regions are still having an extremely hard time watering their animals. There is still no fresh pasture. The only pockets of pasture in all of central and southern Mauritania are limited to forage crops (irrigated rice plant regrowth and the sowing of new forage crops) developed as part of relief program activities in village irrigation schemes in the river valley area.

Pasturelands in northeastern Tagant (Tichitt department) and northern Hodh El Chargui abandoned by Mauritanian pastoralists for lack of water have been taken over by Sahrawi pastoralists, who have developed their own water and food supply logistics, with positive spin- off effects for the local population.

I C. Crop production factors by type of farming system

Yields from hot off-season irrigated crops in Trarza and Brakna were meager due to heavy pressure from grain-eating birds and other animals on the small areas planted in such crops. The development of forage crops as part of the government relief program for 2003 is having a positive effect on local small animal herds, but the size of the areas planted in such crops is too small to have any real impact on livestock-raising activities at regional or national levels.

Despite all the interest in promoting irrigation, irrigated crop production, which has been steadily declining for the past two years, could lose even more ground, owing to the obsolescence of irrigation works and equipment (motorized pumps), the overindebtedness of corresponding farmers and the overlapping planting schedules.

Even with the first useful rainfall of the season, farmers continue to stream into Nouakchott from crop production zones. While it is still very premature to draw any conclusions with respect to the permanent abandonment of their farms by large numbers of farmers growing rainfed (dieri) crops who, thus far, have been unable to find permanent employment in urban production systems, seasonal migrants working in the city do not appear to show the same enthusiasm about returning to their land as they have in the past, at this time of year. As a result, there could be a shortage of agricultural workers in farming areas of the country.

In areas where there is still a good size prospective workforce, farmers are having problems procuring seeds and pesticides to protect their crops from stalk borers which, along with the sporadic rainfall in such areas, are giving local farmers a good reason to give up farming altogether. In the words of a farmer in Aftout interviewed by the members of the joint OFDA/FFP/FEWSNET/CILSS assessment mission, “what’s the use of knocking ourselves out when, year after year, our crops are destroyed by stalk borers?”

The repairing of old dams and the building of new dams could help expand the size of lowland areas planted in crops. The size of areas planted in flood-recession (walo) crops is largely contingent on rainfall conditions in the upper river basin and the effectiveness of the Manantalli water release program. The success of both types of farming systems requires resolving the three-fold problem of seed shortages, straying animals and, worst of all, stalk borers.

I D. Assessment of conditions in agropastoral areas

In addition to pasture access problems, both farmers and pastoralists are having a hard time meeting their daily needs for drinking water. Conditions on the livestock market have changed since May, with prices for small livestock animals starting to bounce back up. Thus, the price of an average sheep on the Kaëdi market was somewhere around 13,000 UM back in March, plunging to 8,000 UM in May, only to climb back up to somewhere around 10,000 UM by mid- June, with supplies extremely tight.

This new trend should improve food access for agropastoral households, at least with regard to subsidized sales under the government relief program, since regular market prices for other foodstuffs are also rising.

I D1. Areas in average condition (Aftout and the central river valley area)

The 2003 relief program should definitely be more effective than the 2002 program, owing to its larger target population and its provision of more complete food rations, with each recipient receiving oil, cowpeas and sugar in addition to the standard 400g of grain. Starting up in early June for all practical purposes, the program has solidified improvements in food security conditions in Aftout, “adwaba” settlements in central Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi and in the northern Senegal River Valley.

While there is no longer any risk of an imminent famine in these areas, the situation is still extremely precarious due to the inadequacy of the aid dispensed under the relief program (with many extremely food-insecure households receiving no assistance whatsoever) and the serious shortage of drinking water.

In the southern part of the river valley, remittances of food and cash by migrating family members are largely responsible for the success of efforts to manage and contain the effects of the food crisis in this area.

Poor harvest prospects for date crops cultivated in oases in structurally deficit areas of northern Mauritania (Tiris Zemmour, Adrar, Inchiri and Dakhlet Nouadhibou) could have a serious effect on the ability of area farmers to deal with food shortages. The annual income earned from the sale of date crops is the main source of food access for these households. Distributions of food aid by the CSA have helped prevent any further deterioration in conditions in these areas.

I D2. Areas in poor condition

Though receiving more complete food rations under this year’s relief program, the food situation of households in “adwaba” settlements in the northern river valley area is still extremely serious. These heavily indebted households are forced to use a large part of their rations to pay off several years worth of accrued debts, continuing to gather nuts (seeds from Boscia senegalensis trees, nuts from Balanite trees, etc.) as a means of supplementing their diet.

Fishing villages in the southern part of the river valley are feeling the effects of the drop in income from fishing activities along the river and the biological contamination of its waters, making them increasingly unfit for human consumption.

The purchasing power of households in livestock-raising areas of central and northern Mauritania (central and northern Trarza and northern Brakna) is being steadily eroded by the deterioration in terms of trade for livestock versus commercially sold food products.

The food situation in oasis areas of Tagant, Assaba and Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi has sharply deteriorated in the wake of the meager date harvest which, in the past, had always enabled the local population to make it through the lean period.

Though the food situation in the outskirts of seats of local government in rural areas and in urban slum areas (in Nouakchott, Nouadhibou, and Kaëdi) is extremely precarious, and thus far, households in these areas have been bypassed by assistance programs.

II. CURRENT FOOD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

According to local residents interviewed by the assessment team, the 2003 relief program is going well. More complete than last year’s program, it appears to have already succeeded in normalizing the food situation in certain parts of Aftout. The relief program has more or less stabilized living conditions in communities ordinarily forced to follow survival strategies at this time of year to make it through the lean period, without, however, completely eliminating food insecurity problems.

To avoid upsetting this delicate balance, it is vital for provisions to be distributed before the rains prevent their delivery. Accordingly, the first useful rainfall in southern Aftout (Maghama, Kaëdi, Bababé, Boghé) is a cause for concern, as well as renewed hope.

Efforts to manage the food crisis in areas bypassed by distributions of food aid revolve mainly around remittances from migrating family members, sales of animals (for those with any animals left to sell) and borrowing. In these parts of the country, the first rainfall of the season is raising everyone’s hopes that the growth of fresh pasture and the replenishment of surface water resources will ease food insecurity problems.

Continued illegal imports of Senegalese rice sold at prices ranging from 3,000 to 3,500 UM per 50 kg sack (compared with prices of 4,800 to 5,000 UM for locally grown rice) are helping to contain food insecurity problems in the Senegal River Valley.

The food situation will continue to deteriorate in oasis areas with the poor harvest prospects for date crops. The plunge in the level of the water table has seriously affected date production, which is not even adequate enough to meet household consumption needs during this year’s lean period.

In central Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi and livestock-raising areas of Trarza, farmers growing rainfed crops have still not returned to their land from seasonal jobs in the city. The serious seed shortage only serves to heighten the risk of a reduction in the size of the area planted in crops. Not only are impoverished farmers having problems purchasing seeds but, with supplies so tight, even those able to come up with the money to buy seeds are forced to resort to so-called “bin run” seeds. ACORD is making an all-out effort to distribute seeds to farmers in Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi, while WORLD VISION is getting seed aid to farmers in Tagant. The report by the joint OFDA/FFP/CILSS/FEWSNET assessment mission recommended organizing seed aid programs in the form of fairs, where targeted farmers could buy seeds with donor-supplied vouchers.

The food situation in the outskirts of rural towns and cities and in urban slum areas is expected to deteriorate even further

III. CURRENT FOOD AVAILABILITY AND ACCESS

III A. Nationwide situation

The availability of coarse grains is improving with imports of sorghum and millet from Mali and of maize (food aid) from Senegal. The combination of falling sorghum prices on markets in border areas (Modibougou, Adel Bagrou, Sélibaby and Kaëdi) and the improvement in wheat supplies (distributions and subsidized sales) could drive prices back down on consumer markets.

Commercial supplies of rice (local and imported) and wheat are still adequate, but rice prices are rising.

III B. Current situation in neighboring countries

Imports of millet and sorghum from Mali are growing as Malian farmers, heartened by the normal start of this year’s rainy season and whose trading margins have been substantially cut back by distributions of 25,000 MT of free grain food aid, begin selling off their grain reserves.

Senegal is still importing rice and maize, but the onset of the rains on Ile à Morfil (the part sandwiched between the two arms of the Senegal River, which is the country’s main rice- growing area) could slow down or halt these transfers altogether.

The mediocre condition of pasturelands in the Sahara has forced large-scale pastoralists to invade grazing lands in northeastern Tagant and northern Hodh El Chargui, developing their own food and water supply logistics, which has helped improve the availability of staple foodstuffs and drinking water in these areas.

III B1. Supply of staple foodstuffs and price trends

Long restricted to cities, imports of Malian grain are beginning to impact rural areas. For the time being, most of these imports involve grain purchased by farmers in southern Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi, Gorgol and Guidimakha on the Sélibaby, Kaëdi, Bassikounou and Adel Bagrou markets for use as seeds. Right now, grain prices are visibly down on markets in border areas. In urban areas, the downward trend in prices during the month of May has turned around since June 8, with millet prices jumping from 100 UM to 150 UM/kg, sorghum prices hovering somewhere around 190 to 200 UM, compared with 170 UM in May, and cowpea prices shooting up from 300 to 350 UM. Prices on rural markets in the interior are steadily rising (see Figure I) with the current need for seeds, which is increasing demand and, as a result, driving up prices.

Though supplies of imported staple foodstuffs (rice, wheat, wheat flour, sugar, oil, milk, tea) are still good in all parts of the country, their rapidly rising prices since the month of May have skyrocketed in the wake of the events of June 8 (the failed coup d’état), with the price of imported Senegalese rice jumping from 140 UM/kg in early June to 160 UM as of June 24 the price of Thai rice increasing from 180 to 220 UM/kg and the price of powdered milk up from 700 to 800 UM. The largest reported hike was in the price of vegetable oil, which was just beginning to inch downwards. From 235 UM per liter in April, it gained a mere 5 UM in May (to stand at 240 UM), spiraling upwards to as high as 280 UM between June 7 and June 24.

Figure 1: Trends in sorghum prices between February and June of 2003

Source : FEWS NET Mauritania

III B2. Trends in livestock and meat prices

Prices for livestock (primarily small animals and cattle), which were down in May, began moving back up in June, driving meat and fish prices up with them. The price of an average sheep on the El Mina market rose from 19,000 UM in May to 21,500 UM in June, with the price of a ram jumping from 12,000 to 14,000 UM.

With these hikes also reflected in retail prices (the price of mutton stood at 900 UM/kg in June, up from 800 UM in May), housewives began falling back on fish, driving up demand and, as a result, causing fish prices to bounce back up, with the sole exception of prices for gilt-head bream, which are currently in season.

There are very few sales of animals in livestock-raising areas in the eastern part of the country, with the outlook for this year’s rainy season in both Mali and Mauritania appearing to be easing the concerns of local pastoralists, who are no longer looking to sell off their livestock.

III B3. Food access

The food access of countless households in Aftout, in “adwaba” settlements in central Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi and in the northern Senegal River Valley is highly dependent on distributions of food aid and subsidized wheat sales under the ongoing relief program, with the cutback in migrant remittances and borrowing in these areas.

Our May report underscored the flaws in the subsidized sales program (no retail sales, long distances between villages and program sales outlets, etc.) The onset of the rainy season could heighten the effects of both these problems on the food access of target households.

Food access for households in the southern reaches of the river valley and along the country’s border with Mali is contingent on remittances from migrating family members and trade with border areas, which has improved local grain supplies (millet, sorghum, maize, rice.)

Pastoralists targeted by the relief program are selling fewer animals, while other pastoralists have stepped up animal sales as price ratios for livestock compared with commercially sold food products continue to deteriorate, with the regular hikes in prices for staple foodstuffs outstripping any rises in livestock prices.

Households in the outskirts of seats of local government in rural areas and in slum areas of Nouakchott and Nouadhibou are facing increasingly serious food access problems with the steady rise in prices for staple foodstuffs. The European Union program (18,000 MT) is expected to target a number of rural areas, but there are still no plans for assisting the urban poor.

IV. AREAS AND POPULATION GROUPS CURRENTLY AT RISK

Though relief programs in such areas have eased food insecurity problems, the entire population of farmers and small pastoralists in Aftout, in “adwaba” settlements in central Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi and in the northern reaches of the river valley is still classified as highly food insecure. Barring a breakdown in the food aid program, food security conditions in these areas should pick up with the onset of the rains which, in turn, should improve water access and produce fresh pasture. This improvement should benefit pastoralists engaged in raising small livestock animals. Conditions in other parts of the river valley remain unchanged.

Any improvement in the situation of certain socioeconomic groups (fishermen, small pastoralists and single crop farmers dependent on rainfed agriculture and oasis cultivation) would require optimal production conditions. Accordingly, these population groups are still being classified as highly food insecure. Efforts to address the situation of farmers in oasis areas have been hampered by this year’s failed date harvest, which was virtually nil. With the plunge in income from date sales, this population group is having a hard time making it through this year’s lean period.

Households in the outskirts of seats of local government in rural areas and in urban slum areas are also classified as highly food insecure.

Recommendations

In light of the current situation, FEWS Net/Mauritania is recommending:

• That subsequent assistance programs give top priority to extremely food-insecure rural areas bypassed by the 2003 relief program. • That departmental or community warehouses be stocked with grain before the rains close local roads to motor vehicle traffic. • That the government pursue its subsidized sales program (for foodstuffs and animal feed products), making it more accessible and affordable to targeted households (by improving transportation conditions, providing for retail sales and, if possible, expanding the product line) to put it within the reach of larger numbers of low-income households and small pastoralists. • That practical measures (consciousness-raising efforts, transportation facilities, seed aid, etc.) be taken to encourage agricultural workers to return to farming areas. • That farm loans, seeds, inputs and plant health products be made available in time to ensure that the 2003-2004 growing season starts up on schedule. • That, like OXFAM and the LWF, other NGOs be asked to follow suit and mount projects for women’s cooperatives in highly and extremely food-insecure areas designed to boost crop production in these areas. • That special food aid programs be mounted for households in the outskirts of seats of local government in rural areas and in urban slum areas (of Nouakchott and Nouadhibou).