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US Economic Indicators: Retail Sales

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US Economic Indicators: Retail Sales US Economic Indicators: Retail Sales Yardeni Research, Inc. September 16, 2021 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected] Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box Table Of Contents TableTable OfOf ContentsContents Nominal Retail Sales Components 1-3 Retail Sales 4 Personal Consumption Expenditures 5 Retail Sales: Housing Related 6-9 September 16, 2021 / Retail Sales Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Nominal Retail Sales Components Figure 1. 8500 6000 RETAIL SALES 8000 (billion dollars, saar) 5600 Aug 7500 Aug 5200 7000 Ex Autos Aug & Gas 4800 6500 Total Stations Excluding 6000 Building Materials 4400 5500 4000 5000 3600 4500 3200 4000 3500 2800 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 7500 650 7100 Aug 600 Aug 6700 550 6300 Total Ex Gasoline 500 5900 5500 Gasoline 450 Stations 5100 400 4700 350 4300 300 3900 3500 250 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 6600 1800 1700 6200 Aug 1600 5800 Motor Vehicles 1500 Total Ex & Parts Dealers Aug 5400 Motor 1400 Vehicles 1300 5000 1200 4600 1100 4200 1000 900 3800 800 3400 700 yardeni.com 3000 600 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Source: Bureau of the Census. Page 1 / September 16, 2021 / Retail Sales Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Nominal Retail Sales Components Figure 2. 200 400 RETAIL SALES Clothing (billion dollars, saar) & Accessory Stores Aug 150 Aug 300 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores 100 200 50 100 0 0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 600 470 575 450 550 430 525 Health & Personal Care 410 500 Stores Aug 390 475 Building Materials & Pharmacies & 370 Garden Equipment Aug 450 Drug Stores 350 425 Jul 330 400 310 375 290 350 270 325 250 300 230 275 210 250 190 225 170 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 120 130 Sporting Goods, 120 Hobby, Book & Music Stores 110 100 Aug Aug 100 Electronics & Appliance Stores 90 80 80 70 60 60 50 yardeni.com 40 40 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Page 2 / September 16, 2021 / Retail Sales Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Nominal Retail Sales Components Figure 3. 900 180 RETAIL SALES 170 850 (billion dollars, saar) Aug Aug 160 800 Miscellaneous Retailers 150 750 General Merchandise 140 Stores 700 130 120 650 110 600 100 550 90 500 80 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 250 1200 Aug Department Stores Ex 1000 200 Leased Departments Jul 800 Nonstore Retailers 150 Aug 600 400 100 Electronic Shopping & 200 Mail Order Houses 50 0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 700 1200 600 1000 Jul Aug 500 Food & 800 Beverage Stores 400 600 Warehouse Clubs & Super Stores Food Services & 300 Drinking Places 400 yardeni.com 200 200 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Page 3 / September 16, 2021 / Retail Sales Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Retail Sales Figure 4. 85 85 RETAIL SALES (as a percent of wages & salaries) 80 80 75 75 Jul 70 70 65 65 60 60 55 55 Total Ex Gasoline 50 50 yardeni.com 45 45 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Figure 5. 55 55 FOOD SERVICES & DRINKING PLACES (as a percent of food & beverage stores plus food services & drinking places) 50 50 Aug 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 yardeni.com 25 25 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Page 4 / September 16, 2021 / Retail Sales Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Personal Consumption Expenditures Figure 6. 1450 1450 CONSUMER OUTLAYS ON FOOD AT HOME (billion dollars, saar) 1350 1350 1250 Food at Home 1250 Personal Consumption* (1221.3) Jul 1150 Retail Sales** (910.0) 1150 1050 1050 950 950 Aug 850 850 750 750 650 650 550 550 450 450 yardeni.com 350 350 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 * Food & beverages purchased for off-premises consumption. ** Food and beverage stores. Source: Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Figure 7. 400 400 CONSUMER OUTLAYS ON FOOD AT HOME: PERSONAL CONSUMPTION MINUS RETAIL SALES (billion dollars, saar) Jul 300 300 Sold at Warehouse Clubs & Super Stores* (327.9) 200 200 100 100 yardeni.com 0 0 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Source: Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 5 / September 16, 2021 / Retail Sales Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Retail Sales: Housing Related Figure 8. 750 750 HOUSING-RELATED RETAIL SALES (billion dollars, saar) 700 700 650 Building Materials, Garden Equipment, & 650 Supply Dealers Plus Aug 600 Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores 600 Building Materials, Garden Equipment & 550 Supply Dealers 550 500 500 Aug 450 450 400 400 350 350 300 300 250 250 yardeni.com 200 200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: Bureau of the Census. Figure 9. 1200 1200 RETAIL SALES: HOUSING-RELATED 1000 (billion dollars, saar, ratio scale) 1000 Retail Sales 800 Building Materials, Garden Equipment, & 800 Supply Dealers (468.3) Plus Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores (618.2) Aug Plus Electronics & Appliance Stores (717.2) 600 600 400 400 yardeni.com 200 200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Census Bureau. Page 6 / September 16, 2021 / Retail Sales Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Retail Sales: Housing Related Figure 10. 3800 REAL CONSUMER SPENDING (3-ma, billion dollars, saar, ratio scale) 3600 5100 Aug 3400 3200 3000 2800 2600 Real Retail Sales Excluding Building Materials* 2400 Real Consumption Expenditures Less Services 2200 yardeni.com 3000 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 * Retail sales less building materials divided by CPI goods. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau. Figure 11. 70 70 REAL CONSUMER SPENDING 60 (quarterly percent change, saar) 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Real Retail Sales Aug -20 Excluding Building Materials* -20 (3-month percent change in 3-ma, saar) (-14.7) Real Consumption Expenditures -30 Less Services -30 (GDP Accounts) (12.7) -40 -40 yardeni.com -50 -50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 * Retail sales less building materials divided by CPI goods. Source: Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 7 / September 16, 2021 / Retail Sales Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Retail Sales: Housing Related Figure 12. 8.5 8.5 8.0 RETAIL SALES 8.0 (trillion dollars, saar, ratio scale) 7.5 Aug 7.5 7.0 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.0 6.0 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.0 12-month moving average 4.0 3.5 3.5 yardeni.com 3.0 3.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
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