US Economic Indicators: Retail Sales
Yardeni Research, Inc.
September 16, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]
Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected]
Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected]
Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box Table Of Contents TableTable OfOf ContentsContents
Nominal Retail Sales Components 1-3 Retail Sales 4 Personal Consumption Expenditures 5 Retail Sales: Housing Related 6-9
September 16, 2021 / Retail Sales Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Nominal Retail Sales Components Figure 1. 8500 6000 RETAIL SALES 8000 (billion dollars, saar) 5600 Aug 7500 Aug 5200 7000 Ex Autos Aug & Gas 4800 6500 Total Stations Excluding 6000 Building Materials 4400 5500 4000 5000 3600 4500 3200 4000
3500 2800 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 7500 650
7100 Aug 600 Aug 6700 550 6300 Total Ex Gasoline 500 5900
5500 Gasoline 450 Stations 5100 400 4700 350 4300 300 3900
3500 250 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 6600 1800 1700 6200 Aug 1600 5800 Motor Vehicles 1500 Total Ex & Parts Dealers Aug 5400 Motor 1400 Vehicles 1300 5000 1200 4600 1100 4200 1000 900 3800 800 3400 700 yardeni.com 3000 600 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Source: Bureau of the Census.
Page 1 / September 16, 2021 / Retail Sales Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Nominal Retail Sales Components Figure 2. 200 400 RETAIL SALES Clothing (billion dollars, saar) & Accessory Stores Aug 150 Aug 300 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores
100 200
50 100
0 0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 600 470 575 450 550 430 525 Health & Personal Care 410 500 Stores Aug 390 475 Building Materials & Pharmacies & 370 Garden Equipment Aug 450 Drug Stores 350 425 Jul 330 400 310 375 290 350 270 325 250 300 230 275 210 250 190 225 170 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 120 130
Sporting Goods, 120 Hobby, Book & Music Stores 110 100 Aug Aug 100 Electronics & Appliance Stores 90 80 80
70 60 60
50 yardeni.com 40 40 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Page 2 / September 16, 2021 / Retail Sales Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Nominal Retail Sales Components Figure 3. 900 180 RETAIL SALES 170 850 (billion dollars, saar) Aug Aug 160 800 Miscellaneous Retailers 150 750 General Merchandise 140 Stores 700 130
120 650 110 600 100 550 90
500 80 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 250 1200
Aug Department Stores Ex 1000 200 Leased Departments Jul 800 Nonstore Retailers
150 Aug 600
400 100 Electronic Shopping & 200 Mail Order Houses
50 0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 700 1200
600 1000 Jul Aug
500 Food & 800 Beverage Stores
400 600
Warehouse Clubs & Super Stores Food Services & 300 Drinking Places 400
yardeni.com 200 200 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Page 3 / September 16, 2021 / Retail Sales Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Retail Sales Figure 4. 85 85 RETAIL SALES (as a percent of wages & salaries) 80 80
75 75
Jul 70 70
65 65
60 60
55 55 Total Ex Gasoline 50 50
yardeni.com 45 45 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 5. 55 55 FOOD SERVICES & DRINKING PLACES (as a percent of food & beverage stores plus food services & drinking places)
50 50 Aug
45 45
40 40
35 35
30 30
yardeni.com 25 25 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Page 4 / September 16, 2021 / Retail Sales Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Personal Consumption Expenditures Figure 6. 1450 1450 CONSUMER OUTLAYS ON FOOD AT HOME (billion dollars, saar) 1350 1350
1250 Food at Home 1250 Personal Consumption* (1221.3) Jul 1150 Retail Sales** (910.0) 1150
1050 1050
950 950 Aug 850 850
750 750
650 650
550 550
450 450
yardeni.com 350 350 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* Food & beverages purchased for off-premises consumption. ** Food and beverage stores. Source: Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 7. 400 400 CONSUMER OUTLAYS ON FOOD AT HOME: PERSONAL CONSUMPTION MINUS RETAIL SALES (billion dollars, saar)
Jul
300 300
Sold at Warehouse Clubs & Super Stores* (327.9)
200 200
100 100
yardeni.com 0 0 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Source: Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Page 5 / September 16, 2021 / Retail Sales Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Retail Sales: Housing Related Figure 8. 750 750 HOUSING-RELATED RETAIL SALES (billion dollars, saar) 700 700
650 Building Materials, Garden Equipment, & 650 Supply Dealers Plus Aug 600 Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores 600 Building Materials, Garden Equipment & 550 Supply Dealers 550
500 500 Aug 450 450
400 400
350 350
300 300
250 250
yardeni.com 200 200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: Bureau of the Census.
Figure 9. 1200 1200 RETAIL SALES: HOUSING-RELATED 1000 (billion dollars, saar, ratio scale) 1000 Retail Sales 800 Building Materials, Garden Equipment, & 800 Supply Dealers (468.3) Plus Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores (618.2) Aug Plus Electronics & Appliance Stores (717.2) 600 600
400 400
yardeni.com 200 200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Census Bureau.
Page 6 / September 16, 2021 / Retail Sales Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Retail Sales: Housing Related Figure 10. 3800 REAL CONSUMER SPENDING (3-ma, billion dollars, saar, ratio scale) 3600
5100 Aug 3400
3200
3000
2800
2600
Real Retail Sales Excluding Building Materials* 2400
Real Consumption Expenditures Less Services 2200
yardeni.com 3000 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
* Retail sales less building materials divided by CPI goods. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau.
Figure 11. 70 70 REAL CONSUMER SPENDING 60 (quarterly percent change, saar) 60
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10 Real Retail Sales Aug -20 Excluding Building Materials* -20 (3-month percent change in 3-ma, saar) (-14.7) Real Consumption Expenditures -30 Less Services -30 (GDP Accounts) (12.7) -40 -40 yardeni.com -50 -50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
* Retail sales less building materials divided by CPI goods. Source: Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Page 7 / September 16, 2021 / Retail Sales Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Retail Sales: Housing Related Figure 12. 8.5 8.5 8.0 RETAIL SALES 8.0 (trillion dollars, saar, ratio scale) 7.5 Aug 7.5 7.0 7.0
6.5 6.5
6.0 6.0
5.5 5.5
5.0 5.0
4.5 4.5
4.0 12-month moving average 4.0
3.5 3.5
yardeni.com 3.0 3.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Census Bureau.
Figure 13. 625 625 600 RETAIL SALES 600 575 (billion dollars, saar, ratio scale) Jul 575 550 550 525 525 500 500
475 Warehouse Clubs 475 450 & Super Stores 450 425 425
400 400
375 375
350 350
325 325
300 300
275 275
yardeni.com 250 250 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Census Bureau.
Page 8 / September 16, 2021 / Retail Sales Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Retail Sales: Housing Related Figure 14. 8100 8100
7700 RETAIL SALES 7700 (billion dollars, saar) 7300 7300
6900 6900
6500 Aug 6500
6100 Retail Sales 6100 Total Retail Sales 5700 Excluding Building Materials & 5700 Food Services 5300 5300 Personal Consumption Expenditures 4900 PCE: Goods 4900 4500 4500
4100 4100
3700 3700
3300 3300
2900 2900
2500 2500 yardeni.com 2100 2100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Page 9 / September 16, 2021 / Retail Sales Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2021. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports and podcasts posted on www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.comhttp://blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.
The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc. product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.comhttp://blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of Yardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.
The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on [email protected].