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Sabotage in the reform How real is the battle against What kind of war Belarus of the energy sector oligarchs? is preparing for

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|contents BRIEFING NEIGHBOURS No Plain Truths Allowed: Adrift in Washington: Yuriy Makarov American Foreign Policy on the newly-passed Council’s Stephen Blank law banning totalitarian on the reasons for symbols American inaction 4 28 Philippe de Lara on how the John Herbst: “The Administration does not understand that Mr. Kremlin succeeds in luring supporters from ideologies and Putin’s ambitions are not limited to Ukraine” groups that have nothing in common Director of Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council 7 on factors that shape the US’ foreign policy FOCUS 30 The Thorny Path to Reform: MP Aleksander Motyl on Washington’s policy Yehor Firsov on what hampers towards Ukraine and the perception reforms of Ukrainian politicians in the US 8 32 A Blend of Pressure, Edward Lucas on why Europe Procrastination and Neighbors’ is losing to Russia Best Practices: 35 Economic and financial Desperate Times: A Greek gets no gifts in Moscow transformations of the past year 34 10 SECURITY If Not Bread, Then Circuses: The Feat of the Donbas Battalion: Iryna Bekeshkina from the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic New proofs of Russia’s war aggression in Ukraine Initiative sociology group on the public’s perceptions of reforms and expectations of change 36 Muscle Flexing in the North: What challenges the army 13 of Belarus if preparing for Free Energy and Its Enemies: 40 Reforms in Ukraine’s SOCIETY energy sector and their Left Turn for Ukraine: Which outlook political force will make the most 14 of Ukrainians’ appetite for the adequate left Showcase vs Show What stands in the way 44 of police and judiciary reforms HISTORY Cossacks or Kozaks: 18 No Russians We Sergii Ivanov: “The year after Maidan was one of missed Moscow’s opportunities in reform of the prosecution” myths about Blogger and ex-investigating prosecutor on changes the Russian nature in Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office of the steppe 20 warriors Mykola Sunhurovsky, Director of Military 46 Programmes at the Razumkov Center, CULTURE & ARTS on Ukraine’s security and defense sector Warzone, and modernization of the Army jazz love songs and time travel: 22 The Ukrainian Week offers POLITICS a selection The Phantom of Deoligarchization: of events to visit How the government vs big capital interaction has changed in April and May in the past year 24 50

E-mail [email protected] www.ukrainianweek.com Tel. (044) 351-13-87 The Ukrainian Week № 4 (86) April 2015 Editors address 37 Mashynobudivna str., Kyiv, 03067, Ukraine Founder ECEM Media GmbH. Publisher ECEM Media GmbH Print run 15 000. Free distribution Address Austria, Am Gestade,1, 1010 Vienna Our partner State registration certificate КВ № 19823-9623ПР 19.03.2013 Chief Editor Dmytro Krapyvenko Editors Anna Korbut, Lidia Wolanskyj, Shaun Williams № 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|3 Briefing |

4|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 |Briefing

No Plain Truths Allowed

Author: Yuriy Makarov

f it weren’t for the war, perhaps Ukrainians would have had to wait a long, long time for the Verkhovna Rada to adopt laws condemning com- Imunism alongside nazism. To recognize the long series of usurpers, from Lenin to Andropov, Chern- enko and Shcherbytskiy as ghouls and their symbols—the pentagram together with the hammer and sickle (pardon me, the star on its own is above sus- picion)—as the mark of Cain should have been done long ago, as it was in other post-communist countries. This would not only have cleared the air but would also have restored the political landscape to good health by preventing the moral heirs of the criminal regime from participating in various opportunistic pairings with their material heirs. Recall how the nominally opposition Communist Party of Ukraine obediently supported the policy of robbing the country and betraying its interests to Ukraine’s photo by andriy lomakin by photo

№ 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|5 Briefing | just future requires that all “bourgeois, kurkuls, priests, rotten intellectuals and opposition fellow- travelers” be killed, that future isn’t worth a broken brass penny, especially since the only ones that will survive to see it are the party nomenklatura in unfashionable suits, chekists with their “honest eyes” and a confused lumpen proletariat. – That people who are nostal- gic for law and order, 100% employment and cheap kovbasa (sausage), exhibit classic Freud- ian symptoms, longing to “return to their mother’s womb”—such was the literal statement of some fans of Russia’s annexation of Crimea. The fact that this ideal place exists, not even in an unde- fined past, but in an imaginary one, makes the diagnosis even more obvious. aggressive neighbor. The very Whenever Federation, I hope, where people –That evil is a hundredfold anti-Ukrainian disturbances in the a doctrine are taken to court for selling col- more dangerous when it is cov- East of the country, which made promising some lections of soldiers with swastikas ered by good. Communism is one Russia’s invasion so much easier, kind of bright but the state turns a blind eye on of the greatest truly satanic temp- would have been very much more and just future gatherings of real nazis. To defend tations, if we consider how such complicated if not made impossi- requires that against excesses by literally de- peerless intellectuals and artists ble. all “bourgeois, claring war on every manifestation were taken by it at various times: Yet any ban in today’s politi- kurkuls, of idiocy is simply not within the H.G. Wells and Bernard Shaw, cally correct world is perceived as priests, rotten power of Ukrainian society today. Theodore Dreiser and Lion intellectuals the weapon of the weak and there and opposition It’s understandable—and written Feuchtwanger, Anatole France were plenty of opponents of the fellow- into the new law—that museum- and Pablo Picasso, André Mal- new law. Critics specifically point travelers” be quality monuments do not come raux and Frédéric Joliot-Curie. to the fact that it was poorly killed, that under the ban. They did not recognize that to drafted and that Europe will not future isn’t Unfortunately, all too many seek refuge in the seeming sim- support any attempts to stifle free- worth a broken red stains from the past have wo- plicity of the myth of communism dom of convictions, freedom of ex- brass penny ven their way into our daily lives meant inevitably to reject the pression of opinion, and other and will not be rid of so easily. In freedom of living in a real but achievements of democracy. fact, the interior of the legislature complex world. Ukraine will have to simply re- is decorated with lively frescoes –That nearly all European mind everybody that in “Old” Eu- using red flags and other such at- countries “caught” communism, rope itself, they are very good at tributes. Symbols are extremely like a childhood case of measles, defending their principles when significant, but they are not the and we were no exception. It the smell of singeing arises. As one root of all evil. would obviously be a lot more brilliant example: less than a What’s important for us to un- pleasant and convenient to declare month ago, France sentenced to derstand is that real “de-commu- that the ideas of the left were im- two months in jail, albeit sus- nization” is a long and winding ported artificially by some inter- pended, a television host who had road, and new laws are not the lopers and we Ukrainians, white expressed doubts about the pur- and fluffy as the driven snow, did pose of all the protests over the Real de-communization everything in our power to resist it acts of terror at the Charlie Hebdo is a long road. all along. All we have to do is pre- editorial offices and a Jewish tend that there were no leftists store... on his private page in a so- New laws are not among the founding fathers of the cial network. It seems that a ma- the destination but Ukrainian National Republic, and ture state is quite capable of deter- no completely loyal red activists in mining the level of social risk be- the starting point the Assassinated Renaissance, and hind one or another “free destination but the starting point. that the genius poet Pavlo Ty- expression of opinion.” We need serious and not always chyna never wrote, “The Party On the other hand, in terms of easy or comfortable work in our leads.” This would simply be the a specific Ukraine and its ignorant entire society, work aimed at be- latest self-deception. Right now practice of human rights, any rea- coming aware of certain funda- the last thing Ukrainians need is sonable endeavor can be reduced mental truths. sedatives. We need tonics. Not to to the point of absurdity. Perhaps —That whenever a doctrine stop, but to start, or rather never not to the point of the Russian promising some kind of bright and cease, thinking. 6|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 Opinion|Briefing The Kremlin Force Field

hilippe Raynaud, the French philosopher, military and political support in the clash of civili- has coined the pro-Putin public in France zation: war on terrorism or the rise of Asian pow- (the same holds for all western countries) as ers. The Islamic war against Eastern Christians is Pa “force field”. In it, he underlines the a crucial issue here: despite his fake Orthodoxy, strength of Putinian lobbying, its ability to catch Putin cannot be a wise and trustworthy ally for even smart and good faith people inside a frame- protecting the threatened minorities of the Middle work of gross lies, where they can no longer ac- East nor for building a front of decent regimes knowledge facts. The force field attracts many, against terror. But for those worried by Jihad as a from German and Hungarian neo-Nazis to French threat to Western civilization, acknowledging that and Greek leftists, as well as reasonable politicians Russia is probably for a long period not a reliable and academics. What is the underlying logic of such partner, is unbearable, so they refuse to see the an improbable convergence between extremists facts. This is the “rational” core of the force field, and moderates, tough “realists” and hotheads fasci- its best argument, who convey its persuasion to Author: nated by brute force, anti-EU nationalists and re- dubious themes, such as the so-called humiliation Philippe gionalist extremists relying on Europe (and Putin!) of Russia after 1991, the perjury of NATO, the de- de Lara, for weakening nation states, conservative Chris- fence of Russian minorities, the ancient love of France tians and leftists aiming at “democracy without Russia for Crimea and “Little Russian” brothers, capitalism”? the divisions of Ukraine, and other rubbish com- The pro-Putin party is by no means dominant, at munication devises. Our arguments must address least for now: French government holds on its posi- to this. It is not enough to reinstate facts against tion on sanctions and on the non-delivery of Mis- propaganda lies and to praise the values of Ukrai- tral warship; leaders and public opinion have a nian revolution and the nobility of its heroes; one growing awareness of Putin’s cynicism. But it is must speak the language of geopolitics and of na- nevertheless an influential party thanks to its orga- tional and European interests. nized networks, and its layer cake feature, which The pro-Putin realism is misguided because it mis- seduce seemingly in- takes the Kremlin re- compatible interests and We must break the gime with a decent part- parties. Bribery and fear framework of the ner, and relies on a gross put aside, the Russian binary vision of the force field relies on two Kremlin’s force field by world. Meanwhile, we main components. live in an era of dissemi- One is a strong feeling of showing the world order nated and overlapping self-hatred in liberal as it is – of disseminated conflicts. It is an unset- countries fuelled by the tling fact, and many damages of globaliza- and overlapping conflicts people prefer the solace tion and an even stron- of Manichaeism. This ger distrust towards po- might be a repercussion litical leaders since 9/11. The US is the focus of this of the naïve hope in the end of history and a peace- hatred and distrust because a lot of people dislike ful millennium under the aegis of the US or of WTO (often with good reasons) both the imperial arro- after the collapse of USSR. Both the extremists gance of neo-cons with the failures in Iraq, and the aiming at exploding the world order and the fright- vacillating policy of Obama with its impotence. Due ened reactionaries are attracted by the Russian to cultural gaps and harsh economic competition field force in this context. between European countries and the US, the unity It is a pity that smart liberals and wise conserva- of western interests and civilisation is not so obvi- tives join them too often. Whenever I meet a catho- ous now as it used to be. lic and/or patriot French conservative who is not Hence the other component: a desire of alterna- pro-Putin, I am grateful because so many of these tive that the new Third Rome tries to ride, using people whom I respect and often agree with (on the the illusion of greatness and higher values, and need of common culture and political identity, or a the reality of cynical force, lies, and military capa- demanding education in the name of equal easy ac- bility. The very inconsistency of Putin’s neo-totali- cess for everybody) seem bewitched by Putin, as if tarianism is an asset for leading astray western it were a necessary corollary of their political bent. interlocutors and dividing them. The Empire is It is important that the Ukrainian or Euro-Ukrai- not an alternate system fighting ours in a regu- nian cause does not identify with yuppies and bo- lated war, but rather a hooligan playing dirty in a hos, but is also appealing to people concerned globalized and intertwined world. So the Russian about preservation of European cultural heritage. “alternative” can seduce both those who are fed up To be fully convincing, we must not only defend the by the transatlantic way of life, and those who be- justice and beauty of Ukrainian liberties, but break lieve that the West should defend itself and is, the framework of the force field by showing the whether you like it or not, dependent on Russian world order as it is. № 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|7 Focus|Reforms The Thorny Path to Reform

Author: The system Yet at the same time I can- of authority. The system will Yehor Firsov, for registering not hide the fact that our re- not yield. Member of Parliament private forms are moving slowly, be- What are the main causes of businesses in cause in the old bureaucracy failure? The first is a huge prob- ecently it seems that all of Tbilisi takes the potential for resistance is lem: the shortage of personnel. I Ukraine is talking about 10 minutes. huge. We probably all see it. imagine that even entrepreneurs reforms. This is encourag- The procedure Sabotage is happening practi- and managers of small compa- differs little from R ing. It has finally become the process of cally at all levels, and there is nies understand me. Ukraine clear to the masses that there is ordering a meal not a single area in which re- has a huge shortage of skilled la- no point in delaying the process, at McDonalds forms have been successfully bor. Finding responsible, edu- and the population has been implemented. I once thought of cated workers can seem like an asking for change. Now it seems Ukrainian MPs as practically impossible task—especially like even grannies and babies omnipotent demigods, but now, when it comes to civil service are aware of the urgent need for being an MP myself, I am some- jobs with miniscule wages. We transformation. times desperate about the lack need to hire and train new young 8|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 Reforms|focus people without prior experience 2,000, an equivalent of about worse, but the Prime Minister working as civil servants. We USD 80 a month? It is just im- hardly hears that. Therefore, the should promise them a future possible. authorities are still not ready to worthy of reward and strive to An oblast governor currently act radically and tend toward ensure that their salaries actu- receives a salary of about UAH palliative measures. And society ally increase. 5,000 or ar. USD 200. Who are as a whole is too afraid of sud- But the current system is we kidding? For the sake of sav- den change. Thus, in the end ev- simply not ready. And this ing some money, we generate eryone is both passive and un- brings us to the second barrier corruption that costs us billions. satisfied. in the way of reform: lack of Where does the oblast head The first priority today is to will. live? How does he drive to get business running—to get the No one is eager to go the ex- work? How does he pay his as- maximum number of people tra mile to teach beginners or to sistants, for example? There is working in the private sector break the usual corrupt mecha- no need to listen to populists. and not worrying about the nisms. As a result, we have a Only decent salaries for law en- state. But here we appear to lack situation where everyone is forcement officers and manag- reforms as well. Conditions have working on the principle of “bet- ers can really make a difference. not improved at all for entrepre- ter to take the old tried-and- And society should put pressure neurs, who face the same old true thief who will not cause on the government to make such bureaucracy, red tape, and trouble and skillfully create an decisions. flawed tax laws. Yet the recipe is illusion of intense activity than I support the introduction of already there in the form of the worry about some young work- Georgian-style liberalization. Georgian experience; we don’t ers that will end up being just as Less laws - more order, as Lao need to reinvent the wheel. It’s bad”. Unfortunately, even our Tzu stated. We are long overdue not necessary to build some new President’s advisors think the to put an end to fire inspections, “Palace of Justice”, as Mikheil same way and are pushing him Saakashvili did to great effect. to take similar steps. Petro Po- The first priority today is We could implement a Geor- roshenko is appointing former gian-style simplified mechanism Party of Regions members as to get business running— for the registration of entrepre- Heads of district administra- to get the maximum neurs with our existing build- tions as long as they have ings, if we only had the will... adapted to his government and number of people working The new system for register- shout “Glory to Ukraine!” when in the private sector ing private businesses in Tbilisi needed. 16 former Party of Re- takes 10 minutes. The procedure gions members were recently and not worrying differs little from the process of appointed as Heads of county about the state ordering a meal at McDonalds. I administrations in Dnipropetro- am sure that the implementa- vsk Oblast. This is far too many. sanitary stations and other rem- tion of this kind of business reg- With this approach, of course, nants of the Soviet era that have istration would cause an imme- there can be no reform. It is long been machines for pumping diate surge in business for high time to abolish the unnec- money from businessmen. But Ukraine. It is no secret that our essary county administrations these structures are reluctant to country really is not as poor as themselves. Instead, they are give up their income. That is they say. Real incomes do not once again being turned into why we are seeing a push to halt correspond to declared incomes. feeders for former members of the process of reform or prevent Large amounts of cash flow “in the Yanukovych regime. its introduction altogether. How the black” - in envelopes from It will be impossible to build do they sabotage change? It is hand to hand. Legalizing all this a new life with this old staff, no very simple. We all know that in money is possible, but only if matter how painful and difficult Ukraine a fraction of bribes and the process of legalization is the process. extortion moves up any author- made as simple as possible: en- The only possible way is a ity hierarchy, resting in the courage people to formally exe- radical reduction of state offi- pockets of those on top of the cute their business and pay a cials and law enforcement offi- pyramid. The factions have even small tax without any problems. cers and the simultaneous in- increased recently to make it in- Today, grandmothers who sell crease in wages for those who teresting for those who make de- pastries in the subway, of remain on staff. Middle tier cisions at the very top. I don’t course, are afraid of any sort of managers should be paid sala- know if these bribes and extor- registration because they do not ries of no less than UAH 30,000. tion are collected from business- want to pay bribes to inspectors Only then can we expect that people or withdrawn from the and sanitation agents. As a re- corruption will not be as perva- old “reserves”. sult, the pastries are sold any- sive and people will really go to Another factor inhibiting our way, the sanitation agents don’t work for wages rather than reforms is fear. The government inspect the grandmothers, and bribes. Public service should be is afraid of taking tough deci- our state budget suffers. prestigious, recruiting the best sions and losing the remnants of Reforms should not only be people from across the country. its approval rating, so it avoids painful, but comfortable too. But how can you recruit the best taking any unpopular measures. Only then will they make any while offering a salary of UAH This always makes things only sense. № 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|9 Focus|Reforms A Blend of Pressure, Procrastination and Neighbors' Best Practices Economic reforms are slowly gaining momentum in Ukraine, but the results are not yet in sight

Author: f the Revolution of Dignity was macroeconomic parameters are Lyubomyr about ensuring a decent life for well described in the Strat- Shavalyuk Ukrainians, then an essential egy-2020), but a vague perspec- Iindicator of this decent life is tive on what country we want to the decent level of income. More build in terms of quality (which than a year after the revolution, key industries to develop, what the real income of Ukrainian citi- kind of business to be given prior- zens has dropped considerably, ity, what model of regional devel- next. This is only normal, since while the economic reforms de- opment to choose, etc.). Many they had never before carried out signed to dramatically increase it economists blame them for that. profound reforms at the national are only coming into gear. To jus- To some extent they are right, but level. This, too, could have become tify the saying that Ukrainians taking into account that the re- another stumbling block in the harness their horses slowly but forms have been launched on a way of economic reforms, had not drive them fast, the government is broad front and, above all, are de- the country's leadership learned to procrastinating with the launch of signed to "break the ground" for listen to the advice of successful the market reforms. Time will tell the new country, clearing it from reformers from the neighboring whether the government will drive the wreckage of the past, it's prob- countries and to trust their com- fast. ably not the right time to raise petence. The significant number of As of today, the economic re- these issues. We will come back to foreigners present today in forms in Ukraine have a few gen- them later, if the first phase of the Ukraine in key government posi- eral features that will determine reforms proves to be successful. tions and in the capacity of advis- their course and have an impact Another side effect of focusing ers with a real voting power is an on the overall success of the trans- on quantitative rather than quali- absolute step forward aimed at formation. Firstly, a significant tative indicators is that reforms overcoming the theoretical igno- number of changes is carried out are often perceived as working rance and the lack of practical ex- under pressure, primarily from with macroeconomic indicators perience. the IMF (lending programs) and and leveling them out manually Finally, the economic reforms, the EU (Association Agreement). and formally, for instance, by in- likely to the transformations in the Experience shows that Ukrainians creasing budget revenues or cut- other areas of responsibility of the often work harder when having a ting spending, rather than chang- state, have to overcome an over- supervisor hovering over them, ing the quantitative and structural whelming resistance of the offi- therefore, the tight deadlines and factors that determine the perfor- cials, oligarchs and other wolves strict requirements set by the mance of the economy. These false in sheep's clothing entrenched in Western countries and interna- targets allow for making cosmetic the government, which is reform- tional organizations will definitely repairs of the system, but not for minded in general. This greatly contribute to the deployment of bringing about a radical change. hinders the reform process, even the reforms and increase their They are very misleading and hin- though giving more time to better chances of success. der the change process by absorb- interpret and design it, consider- Secondly, the Ukrainian au- ing too much social energy. ing all pros and cons. The resis- thorities have a clear idea of where Thirdly, it often seems that the tance of civil saboteurs is no lon- we are going in terms of quantity government or some of its repre- ger sufficient to completely halt (income levels and some other sentatives have no idea what to do the transformation, but is still 10|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 Reforms|Focus ally from scratch, since previously Pension reform. To this the new employees would take po- day, changes to pension legisla- sitions at the Cabinet or the Na- tion have been adopted along with tional Bank at the order of a newly tax changes with the intention of appointed manager, with no one reducing the deficit of the Pension checking their competencies or Fund of Ukraine (PFU) and its their compliance with job descrip- burden on the budget, but this did tions. Although a lot of people still not solve the problem holistically. need to be replaced, and the more Such changes included reducing people are replaced, the higher pension benefits for working pen- will be the personnel shortage in sioners, imposing taxes on high the country, the process is already pensions, increasing the length of underway, and today there is little service required for retirement, doubt that market reforms in and so on. A radical reform of the Ukraine will be supported by the pension system requires working adequate and highly qualified per- in two directions: bringing wages sonnel. out of the shadows (reducing the unified social tax rate was the Tax reform. Most changes to right move, which, according to the tax law were passed when the preliminary data, already yielded 2015 budget was voted in the last the first results in the first quarter days of the last year and the of this year) and stimulating the amendments thereto a month ago. economic activity that would save Those changes were an IMF re- Ukrainian youth from emigration quirement and are aimed at filling by reducing the average load on the state budget in the time of war retirees per employee and increas- and recession. There have also ing the tax base for the unified so- been a few structural changes, cial tax, but will require compre- such as eliminating several taxes hensive economic reforms. Under and charges, bringing the number the new agreement with the IMF, of the remaining ones to 9, simpli- the government undertook to fying tax returns and reducing the draft the blueprint of a compre- strong enough to slow down its The significant time required to file them, radi- hensive reform of the pension sys- number of pace to a minimum that will be al- foreigners cally cutting the unified social tax tem by September 2015 and to most imperceptible to the public. present today in rate (given the respective increase submit to the Parliament the bills Ukraine in key in gross wages) and passive in- necessary to make the pension re- A standard set government come tax rate, etc. However, these form work as soon as the begin- of changes positions and changes are fragmented and will ning of the next year. At long last, we have to admit that in the capacity not reform the tax system as such, the reforms are underway. They of advisers with which today is focused primarily Public finance adminis- have been launched on a broad a real voting on fiscal functions, i.e., filling the tration reform. This is about front and cover many areas. Each power is an budget to the maximum, and not changing the proportions and the of those areas has its own wins absolute step on stimulating the economic areas of the public finance use. forward and failures, so it is worthwhile growth. First of all, it's about the increased mentioning all of them. Under the new IMF program, transparency of public procure- the government has vowed to ment. Last year, a new law on pub- Staff reform. The central change the taxation system, rather lic procurement was adopted in government agencies (Presidential than individual taxes, and to do so Ukraine. This February, ProZorro Administration, Cabinet of Minis- in the nearest future. By the end of electronic procurement system ters, National Bank of Ukraine, April, the blueprint of the State was launched, which is now used etc.) began a large-scale restaffing Fiscal Service (SFS) reform should by a growing number of govern- effort. Obviously, the middle man- be developed, aimed at restructur- ment agencies. According to Dmy- agement that worked under the ing the network of tax and cus- tro Shymkiv, transparent procure- old system, in addition to low toms offices, laying off inefficient ment should result in saving 10- wages often had its own vested in- officials, creating a business envi- 20% of the public funds and terests. They were utterly inter- ronment that would not depend significantly reducing the field left ested in making "reforms" without on political influences and the free for corruption in the market real changes, and therefore had to interpretation of the laws by tax amounting to about $200 bn an- be replaced with the young, hard- and customs officials, automating nually. working, efficient, and energetic. customs operations the maximum, It is also about fiscal decen- As of today, the restaffing at the and so on. The recent dismissal of tralization. The Strategy 2020 level of the heads of departments the SFS top managers and the in- provides that in 5 years, the share and offices took place almost in vestigation into their activities is a of the local budgets in the consoli- every agency of the central admin- sign of determination of the au- dated budget of the country will be istration. According to govern- thorities. The government expects 65%. Today, it is about 20%. And, ment officials, in some cases they the new tax system to be launched as it turned out, even the narrow had to build the HR function liter- on January 1, 2016. margin amounting, according to № 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|11 Focus|Reforms A step by step plan to various estimates, to UAH 25-45 eliminate regulatory turing was launched, which will underway. Last year, the number bn and allocated by the govern- barriers has been result in the NBU budget reduced of permits required to register a ment in the 2015 budget to in- developed, which, by half this year already, and the business was reduced from 143 among other things, crease the revenues of local bud- provides for reducing number of employees gradually to 85, and obtaining them was gets exceeds their disbursement the number of decreased by tens of percents. Un- made easier. The procedure for budgets. The decentralization pro- supervisory bodies der the new IMF program, the Na- closing a business was simplified cess requires changing the atti- from 56 to 28, tional Bank undertakes to develop for individual entrepreneurs. A tudes and the thinking of the local and their functions by the end of April a number of moratorium was introduced on from 1032 to 680 by authorities, building the necessary this midyear amendments to the Law on the planned inspections of busi- financial and industrial infrastruc- National Bank aimed at optimiz- nesses by regulatory authorities. ture, and a long period of time to ing the structure of the regulator, A step by step plan to eliminate achieve success. However, the first increasing its independence, and regulatory barriers has been de- steps in this direction have already improving its balance. veloped, which, among other been taken, and the ice has been The restructuring of the bank- things, provides for reducing the broken. Let's hope that the real ing system is underway, and insol- number of supervisory bodies decentralization drive will pick up vent banks and financial institu- from 56 to 28, and their func- pace. tions involved in money launder- tions from 1032 to 680 by this Alongside, the social security ing are being removed from the midyear. The government also system is undergoing a radical re- market, including the so-called plans to establish a mechanism form. This reform is necessary to "conversion centers" used to con- to prevent new barriers from bring tariffs for energy and utili- vert company funds into cash to emerging after a significant ties to economically sound levels provide for the needs of the number of them is eliminated. and to switch the respective sec- shadow economy. The law on tors of the economy to operation strengthening the responsibility of State property Restruc- based on market principles. The related parties adopted recently is turing and privatization. The 2015 budget reserves UAH 24 bn aimed at making the work of fi- government has taken the first for subsidies to the most vulnera- nancial institutions more trans- steps towards restructuring state ble social groups. This amount, ac- parent. The NBU undertook to enterprises and preparing them cording to the Minister of Social draft amendments to the legisla- for privatization. New managers Policy Pavlo Rozenko, would allow tion and the regulatory documents selected by an independent com- for softening the blow dealt by the mission on a competitive basis increased bills to the incomes of were appointed to major state- about 4 mn Ukrainian families. In Reforms are often perceived owned companies. Today, the order to distribute such large as macroeconomic government is working on a strat- amount to so many people, the so- egy to reform public companies, cial security system should work indicators rather to be completed by the end of much more efficiently, and social than changes of structural May 2015, and on taking their in- aid programs should be modified. ventory, improving corporate The government undertook to im- factors that determine governance, and mitigating bud- plement the necessary changes al- the performance of get risks associated with their in- ready this year. efficient operations. By the end of In addition to these three ar- the economy August, the government plans to eas, the structure of consolidated make an inventory of the real es- budget expenditures will undergo designed to limit the volume of tate owned by the state, intending a series of transformations. For lending provided by banks to re- to increase its administrative effi- example, in the medium term, the lated parties. These loans have a ciency. In the medium term, it is government plans to bring the la- negative effect on the asset quality planned to considerably reduce bor costs of government employ- of financial institutions, signifi- the list of state properties that ees to 9% of GDP at the account of cantly increasing credit corpora- cannot be privatized, to prepare layoffs and the optimization of tions' unsystematic risks and re- most public companies for priva- public administration processes. sulting in large-scale bank insol- tization, and to restructure the Capital expenditures are planned vency in times of crisis. rest. to grow from 1% of GDP in 2014 to Besides, the National Bank In addition to these horizontal 3% in 2018. This will provide the plans to develop a strategy to re- reforms, significant changes are material basis for the moderniza- form the entire financial sector in taking place in individual sectors tion of the country's infrastruc- addition to the banking one. This of the economy, including energy, ture. There is a number of other refers to the stock market, insur- agriculture, and infrastructure. initiatives as well. ance companies, investment and These vertical transformations, superannuation funds, etc. The like the ones mentioned above, are Financial sector reform. work in this area is just beginning. intended to launch the economic The National Bank of Ukraine is growth mechanism, eventually re- busy working on changes designed Deregulation and busi- sulting in higher earnings of every to transform the financial sector ness development. In addi- Ukrainian. Time will show from the tool for sucking money tion to changes in the tax laws whether the reforms will succeed. out of the economy into a source relieving the business of the bur- Basing on the deadlines set by the of investment and economic den of dealing with the state, government, we will know it at the growth. Last year, NBU restruc- many other transformations are beginning of the next year. 12|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 Reforms|Focus If Not Bread, Then Circuses Iryna Bekeshkina on the public’s expectations of change, perceptions of reforms, and the government’s lack of preparedness for them uring our study last Decem- Interviewed though their cost was hardly depen- when Leonid Kuchma won re-elec- ber, when we asked people by dent on the dollar. The population tion) as well as party lists for the whether they are willing to Roman has a set of questions that unfortu- parliamentary and presidential Dsuffer for the success of re- Malko nately cannot be answered. Some- elections. Unfortunately, people forms and for how long, 10% of re- one must be profiting greatly from who are fed sugar-coated promises spondents were willing to tolerate their hardship. for too long feel a real shock when as long as necessary, and 33% said Falling ratings are now typical it’s time to finally treat the diseases they would survive another year or for almost all parliamentary politi- they’ve acquired. Such treatment is two. That’s 43% overall. More than cal forces. Only Samopomich, a very painful (and far less sweet!). 40% were not prepared to tolerate party led by Lviv mayor Andriy Sa- In addition, we need to under- reform. About half of them did not doviy who is not in parliament him- stand both the place and influence believe in the success of the reforms, self, maintained its prior rating, and that partners or donors to Ukraine and the same number said that they Petro Poroshenko and his party suf- play in these processes, including are already having trouble making fered smaller losses. Now we are the IMF to which the government is ends meet (this was primarily poor even seeing a fall in the ratings of quite closely tied. Perhaps if this re- people). The Razumkov Centre re- the Opposition Bloc (comprised lationship did not exist, the govern- cently published the results of a Iryna mostly of ex-Party of Regions MPs ment would not be forced to take Bekeshkina, study conducted in the first half of Director of the – Ed.). This means that the popula- these drastic and painful steps. But March. Despite the significantly Ilko Kucheriv tion does not see politicians and otherwise Ukraine could not get the worsened financial situation com- Democratic leaders that they feel they can trust. loans that it needs in order to sur- pared to December of 2014, 13% (al- Initiative That’s why they’re willing to wait vive. Attracting investors is also im- most unchanged since December) until an alternative appears. There possible without reforms, because are willing to tolerate as long as nec- used to be one—the political field the current state of law enforcement essary, and at least 29% agreed to was clearly divided nearly in half and the judiciary provides no guar- live in this state for another year or between government and opposi- antees for property owners. This is two. However, it should be noted tion, elected from among the two. not just a matter of war—it is only in that this data was collected in the There were those who supported the East—yet illegal corporate raids period before the population re- the government, and those who did on land and property have not ceived the latest utility bills (see p. not go to the polls. Because the ratio ended in the peaceful central and 14 for more details), so it is quite was about 50/50 (regionally), then western regions. difficult to predict how this will af- those who managed to get more What is currently lacking is an fect the statistics, how the popula- voters to the polls were sure to win. understanding of the situation: we tion will accept these reforms, and Generally, those who had previously now have tremendous opportuni- what their reaction to these changes supported the government were ties, but we risk losing them. will be. later disappointed and were not go- What is preventing reform? Since approval ratings for the ing to vote, so the opposition stood First, the lack of will. Secondly, each government are always a means of to win. Today, almost half of the official is surrounded by different measuring the accuracy its motions, population (especially those who interests and political forces with it is noteworthy that, for instance, once sympathized with the Party of which he or she must agree in Par- the Popular Front’s (led by Premier Regions) is not willing to vote. liament, and they put forward their Arseniy Yatsenyuk – Ed.) approval Populism has been growing for demands. This is a fairly complex rating declined to 4-5% from 20% many years in Ukraine, and it is process, it is not transparent. It’s all during the last election. Arseniy clear that there are now political happening behind closed doors. For Yatsenyuk’s approval rating also fell forces that will put it to use, espe- example, it is still not clear why no accordingly. The population be- cially in the Opposition Bloc. They one has been chosen to head the lieves that the government is re- have several assets at their disposal, Anti-Corruption Bureau. Almost a sponsible for the reforms, and it is including TV channels and financial year has passed, and the contest to clear that people are not happy with resources. Populism fed us for determine finalists is over. what is happening. This is especially years, and elections were often a When the government did noth- true of higher prices. For example, I kind of auction in which the candi- ing all year to fight corruption, then don’t understand why the price of date who promises more wins. The suddenly began making arrests at a domestic products more than dou- population voted for the “promis- meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers, bled so rapidly (in just one day, in ers”, and when the latter found it seemed like a PR trick intended to fact) even while these products were themselves unable to fulfill their keep the voters happy. If not bread, lying on the shelves—apples, for ex- promises, the population turned to then circuses. Clearly, the adminis- ample, went from 8 UAH to 16 support the opposition. Opposition tration wants to show how active it UAH. The price of certain cereals parties have won every election (ex- is in fighting corruption, but this is rose unexpectedly twice, even cluding only the 1999 campaign, primitive. № 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|13 Focus|Reforms tently, and the loopholes that fos- ter abuse remain in place. Now it’s become evident that Free Energy and Its the deadlines outlined in the coalition agreement will not even come close to being upheld. For instance, the harmonization of the Enemies regulatory environment governing the gas and power markets in Ukraine was supposed to have What reforms are going on in Ukraine’s energy been brought in line with the norms of the Third Energy Pack- sector and what is their outlook? age in Q1 2015. At the moment, this is more likely to happen in the gas market, since the related bill passed first reading in March and is likely to be approved altogether shortly. The prospects of bringing the power industry in line with the Third Package any time soon are much less clear. On March 31, Presidential Dep- uty Chief-of-Staff Dmytro Shymkiv commented on the prospects for comprehensive reforms in the sector, saying that work to reform the power industry in Ukraine was only supposed to be completed on June 12. Apparently, “all the top priorities, first drafts and preliminary concepts will be established in the various areas of the sector by April 10, while interim results, an evaluation and modeling related to energy conservation, rates” and more would be completed by April

hoto by U NIAN by P hoto 30. By April 10, the Ministry of Author: BETWEEN THE Roadmap to reforms DEVIL AND THE Energy and Coal was supposed to Oles Oleksiyenko DEEP BLUE SEA: In the coalition agreement ham- draft and submit to the Cabinet: Energy Minister mered out at the end of 2014, re- (1) a draft sectoral program for re- t’s been high time to reform Volodymyr forms in the power industry were forming the coal industry; (2) a Ukraine’s energy sector for Demchyshyn is given an entire chapter of their draft targeted economic program years now, given that its stag- forced to reform own. There was supposed to be for developing the atomic energy nant state in a post-soviet so- the energy “liberalization and the transition complex of Ukraine for 2015- I sector under ciety was possibly one of the to a single principle for market 2019; (3) a bill “On mandatory biggest factors halting economic huge pressure pricing for gas and power in order separation of activities in the and social transformations, from populist to provide incentives for conserva- power industry; and (4) a bill on politicians, making the country vulnerable as well as tion.” At the time, the ruling coali- amending the Law of Ukraine “On to external blackmail and drag- officials and tion committed itself to ensuring the basis for the functioning of the ging it into a pit of indebted- oligarchs who the necessary conditions to attract electricity market in Ukraine” to ness. The country’s politicians are interested investment to undertake struc- reflect the propositions of the Sec- used populist slogans to prevent in preserving tural modernization in the power retariat of the European Energy the transition to a normal mar- corruption industry, upgrade its infrastruc- Community. ket environment in the energy mechanisms ture, and expand domestic pro- sector—and continue to do so to duction of natural gas, petroleum What’s in a market rate? this day. The resulting many- and coal. The current government should be phased system for calculating Nevertheless, since reforms given credit for one thing: despite rates, cross subsidization, com- were the result of circumstantial the extremely difficult socio-politi- plete lack of transparency, and and external pressures, especially cal situation in the country, it has monopolist production, trans- from the IMF, they continue to nevertheless had the courage to portation and sale of various stumble over both open and hid- take on the task of bringing rates kinds of energy made the elec- den resistance among the oli- for various categories of consumers tricity market a virtual Klondike garchs and officials who are keen to market levels, a long-overdue for siphoning off public funds, to preserve the existing corrupt and extremely vital challenge for that is, taxpayer money, into mechanisms. So they are taking the future health of the domestic private hands. place very slowly and inconsis- power industry. Natural gas rates 14|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 Reforms|Focus have been raised to UAH 7.19/cu m terms, the rate increases will still than UAH 50,000 the last year, on for nearly all categories, a threefold be no more than 15% above 2013 insulation of their homes among increase for household users and a rates by 2017. And even that will other things, cannot. slight reduction for industrial ones. only be on condition that the hryv- By steeply increasing access to This step has eliminated the need nia exchange rate remains at cur- subsidies without establishing to finance illegal income for the rent levels. Despite the April hike, proper criteria for receiving them, oblgases, the oblast gas companies, electricity rates in Ukraine are the Government is risking that it as previously they would sell dis- currently not only not higher in will actually spur the consumption counted gas intended for house- dollar terms, they are actually of natural gas and power com- holds to commercial customers at 2-2.5 times lower than they were pared to last year. And so, the en- considerably higher prices. in 2013. Meanwhile, prices for all tire burden for paying the higher However, one potentially abu- kinds of fuels, from fuel rods to rates will end up falling on the sive exception has remained in the gas and a large portion of coal, as state budget. form of discounted rates for gas for well as the costs for much-needed the community cogeneration sec- upgrades to the sector are all in Diversify and tor. As of April 1, their rate will be dollars. demonopolize only UAH 3.00/cu m, which means The situation with prices for One major achievement after the that this gas could be sold to other domestic gas is even worse. For Yanukovych regime collapsed last user groups for the much higher Ukrgazvydobuvannia, the state ex- year was serious diversification of UAH 7.19 rate. What’s more, be- traction company, the sale price suppliers of imported primary en- cause discounted rates were main- was increased only to UAH 1,500 ergy, primarily gas, although this tained for cogeneration customers or USD 68/1,000 cu m, which is was also critical for coal. For in- and the “minimal use” 200 cu m/ several times cheaper than im- stance, of the 480,000 t of coal im- month for households during the ported gas. At this rate, domestic ported over January-February 2015 heating season, Naftogaz is faced extraction is unlikely to sharply for the country’s cogeneration and with a deficit, albeit a much smaller increase in order to cover domes- power plants, only 25% was Russian one, which has been estimated at tic needs and improve national en- coal, while the rest came from South USD 3-4 billion for 2015—com- ergy security. And so Ukraine will Africa, Poland and other countries. pared to USD 8 bn in 2014. continue to have to buy expensive In Q1 2015, only 2.16bn cu m of the But the current government natural gas from abroad. 5.8bn cu m of imported gas came did not find enough political will The reforms to the system of from Russia, while 3.65bn cu m to take the same kind of decisive subsidies have also been poorly came from the EU, causing Gaz- steps on the electricity market that designed. Understandably, in sim- prom’s share to fall to 37%. Despite they took on the gas market. plifying the provision of subsidies First of all, the reduced—and maximally, the government was Reforms in the power potentially abusive—rate for trying to reduce the level of public household consumers for 100-600 dissatisfaction and the threat that industry were largely the kWh per month has been main- there would be massive non-pay- result of circumstantial tained. How much any given con- ment at the new rates. Still, the sumer actually uses—100, 200, way it looks now, the principle for and external pressures 400 or 500 kWh—is something subsidies provides no incentive only the utility company—and whatsoever to conserve energy, an agreement reached with the Rus- customers with a household me- whether gas or electricity, to be- sian Federation about a 100% dis- ter—knows (it would be very costly come more energy efficient, or to count on gas in Q2 2015, Energy for the state to verify whether the insulate residential buildings, al- Minister Volodymyr Demchyshyn records of energy used by an indi- though the reverse should have said the country would continue to vidual consumer match those re- been true. import fuel from the EU based on ported by the oblenergos). In this Not only is the provision of existing contracts. Meanwhile, the way, private oblenergos, the oblast subsidies not related to how effi- bill “On the gas market” currently power companies, can continue to ciently or wastefully the customer being prepared for approval limits sell electricity that supposedly was uses heat, but worse yet, if the the market share of any one source used by the category of consum- household decides to insulate its of imported natural gas to no more ers, whose rate as of April 1 is residence more effectively, its than 30%. UAH 0.63/kWh, for UAH 1.407 to monthly heating bill will not go Back in May 2014, Ukraine those consumers who use more down—the size of the subsidy will! joined the Aggregate Gas Storage than 600 kWh a month. A similar situation exists with the Inventory transparency platform of Secondly, it will take two years use of electricity: given the current Gas Storage Europe, while in June to bring rates in to the level at conditions for getting subsidies, the Cabinet decided to reform NAK which they are commercially justi- there’s no incentive to install en- Naftogaz Ukrainy. The proposition fied, which will have a negative ergy-efficient household appli- is to spin off a couple of stock com- impact on Ukraine’s power indus- ances or light bulbs to replace en- panies: Ukrainian Gas Transport try and its capacity to diversify ergy inefficient ones. Indeed, un- System (UGTS), and Ukrainian Gas sources of fuel supplies or carry der certain circumstances, even Storage Tanks (UGST). According out necessary modernization. the owner of several apartments to the coalition agreement, by the Given the threefold devalua- who is earning income from rent- end of 2015, Naftogaz Ukrainy is to tion of the hryvnia that has taken ing them can qualify for a subsidy, be comprehensively restructured, a place this past year, in dollar while individuals who spent more GTS operator certified, in order to № 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|15 Focus|Reforms separate the extraction, transport, tracts, and the closing of Vuhillia delivery and storage of natural gas, Ukrainy, the state coal company. and to ensure transparent, and un- Not long ago, Minister Dem- interrupted access to gas transport chyshyn announced that Vuhillia infrastructure. Ukrainy would be declared bank- On March 5, 2015, the Verk- rupt shortly and shut down, so that hovna Rada passed first reading of mines and mining associations a bill “On the natural gas market,” would be able to sell coal directly to which is likely to pass into law customers. The Cabinet’s Action shortly. If this bill is, in fact, Program calls for the privatization passed in April, it will come into of 37 mines, the mothballing of 24, effect on October 1, and by June 1, and the closure of 32 unprofitable 2016, the GTS operator will be mines over 2015-2019. So far, the completely separate from delivery Cabinet has approved the list of operations, that is Naftogaz. mines slated for privatization in According to this bill, the natu- 2015: the Novovolynsk Mining ral gas market will function on the Management unit belonging to the basis of free and honest competi- VolynVuhillia state company; the tion, the principle of a high degree Pivdennodonbaska Mine #3; the of protection for consumer rights Dmytrova Mine belonging to Kras- and interests, the free selection of a U NIAN by P hoto noarmiyskVuhillia; separate units provider, equal rights to engage in of LvivVuhillia; and others. A foreign trade involving the pur- The Reforms to the power market 16.5% stake in the privately-owned restructuting chase and sale of natural gas, non- of the coal are likely to face resistance from Zasiadko Mine, one of the most ac- interference in the market on the mining industry Rinat Akhmetov’s DTEK and sev- cident-prone in Ukraine, will also part of the state other than in cases will run into eral major shareholders among be sold. when this might be necessary to resistance from Ukraine’s oblast power companies However, the cessation of sub- protect national interests, and miners and or oblenergos, which are likely to sidies for coal extraction in 2015 guarantees of equal access to the the de facto lose their current monopolist sta- and preparations for the closure of Gas Systems Ukraine. Prices on the owners of state tus on this market. mines has predictably run into re- wholesale and retail markets will mines. Will the sistance from miners and the de be calculated to reflect the energy Government Wanted: A Maggie facto owners of state mines. Min- value of natural gas. Once a con- have sufficient for the miners ing unions threatened widespread resolve to sumer gives notice that they intend complete The most complicated and difficult protests and even a takeover of the to change providers, the switch will reforms in that reform will be restructuring the government in Kyiv if the govern- have to be completed within three sector? coal industry. The coalition agreement did not change its stance on weeks from that date. ments calls for all mining compa- the industry. The situation was Simultaneously with legisla- nies to be privatized over 2015- undermined further by active ef- tive reforms in the gas sector, the 2016 and for all mines that are not forts along similar lines by efforts of the Cabinet of Ministers sold to either be shut down or Akhmetov’s DTEK, which, as the to return control over the distribu- mothballed by 2019. By Q2 2015, owner of many mines and of the tion pipelines to the state com- state assistance for the upgrading main consumers of coal in the pany will play a major role in the or re-equipping of old mines and country—cogeneration plants— sector’s liberalization. In 2012, the the building of new mines or mines began to fight to steeply increase Azarov Government effectively under lease or concession was sup- prices for its coal and for the handed over control of these pipe- posed to have been prohibited. power generated by DTEK’s TESs. lines to oblast gas companies or Despite public statements by oblgases, most of which are con- the Energy Minister, Volodymyr trolled by companies belonging to Reforms to the power Demchyshyn that the previously Dmytro Firtash. market are likely to face agreed rates for power and prices In the power sector, the coali- for domestically mined coal were tion agreement stated that the resistance from Rinat appropriate, he appears to have transmission and distribution of Akhmetov’s DTEK and been forced to make concessions electricity would also be separated under pressure from DTEK. Based from other functions of power several major on Q1 2015 results, the rate for companies operating on the same shareholders among power supplied by TESs was market by 2016. But, nearly equally raised nearly 40%. According to importantly, a Power Network Ukraine’s oblast power some sources, the price of the gas Code is supposed to come into ef- companies group’s coal used to generate fect by July 2015. For electricity power will also be raised, to UAH consumers, this is critical because Starting in Q2 2015, the coal indus- 1,500/tonne. Meanwhile, MinEn- it eliminates the “Rules for Electri- try was to be liberalized, complete ergo has begun sending out sig- cal Hook-up” that are currently in with an exchange for trading in nals that there could be a partial effect and replaces them with new coal based on electronic trading so return to subsidies for the state ones that will offer consumers far that the industry could switch to extraction of coal, which suggests more rights and, hopefully, put an market pricing for heating coal, a that reforms in this troubled sec- end to corruption. transition to direct purchase con- tor are now in limbo. 16|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015

Focus|Reforms Law Enforcement Reforms: Showcase vs Show

rom the early days when the Author: Then, at the beginning of No- lack of a full-scale lustration pro- new-old team of Poroshenko, Bohdan vember 2014, Interior Minister Ar- cess. Yes, of course, there was some Yatseniuk and Turchynov Butkevych sen Avakov presented his agency’s culling of ranks, including by natu- Fcame to power, Ukrainians ex- Strategy for Reforming Internal Af- ral attrition, especially in Crimea pected them to take serious steps fairs Departments. In it, the MIA is and Donbas where tens of thou- to reform the enforcement agen- tasked with forming a European- sands of MIA officers betrayed cies and the court system, which style police force with normal, their oaths of office and went over had functioned as the “punishers” streamlined numbers, good sala- to the side of the enemy. Still, at of the Yanukovych regime. The ries, honest officers, clearly-de- the middle levels in the Ministry, names “militsioner,” “prosecutor” fined functions, and guarantees many discredited individuals from and “judge” had become synony- that they would not be used for po- the previous regime remain in mous with corruption, servility and litical purposes. This is expected to place. a complete loss of professional take place in two phases over 2015- Among the positive elements face. 2017. The main pieces of legisla- are the Georgian “assault” on the In the more than 12 months tion required for these reforms to militsia that has been active in the that have passed since the victory take place are supposed to be person of Deputy Minister Eka of the Maidan, reforms did, indeed, passed in Spring 2015. Zguladze, whose coming was what get going. If nothing else, the Verk- So far, MIA has been more-or- got the reform process started. hovna Rada managed to pass a less sticking to its timetable. The Next on the agenda for reforms is number of very important bills that Ministry is supposed to have five the network of registration and li- affect all three branches of the gov- divisions: the State Emergencies cense bureaus (MREV), after which ernment and that, if fully enacted, Service, the State Migration Ser- one third of these centers will be are quite capable of ensuring a sea- vice, the State Border Service, the closed; the system of traffic fines change in them. The heads of these National Guard, and the National will be revised and differentiated; agencies are also actively talking up Police. On April 4, the Cabinet of the bail system will be reformed to the need for reform. However, it Ministers reviewed and approved prevent the release of corrupt offi- has to be said that, other than iso- four bills related to MIA reforms: cials and terrorists; salaries for po- lated success stories, in most cases, “On internal affairs divisions,” “On lice officers will be raised, and so the situation hasn’t moved beyond the National Police,” “On a Minis- on. The next few months should pretty documents and nice images. show whether all these declara- The reason? Sabotage on the THE BIGGEST PROBLEM NOW IS tions will come to life. At the mo- ground that is only growing fiercer ment, of course, the human re- as the perpetrators see the lack of SABOTAGE OF THE ENACTMENT source issue is the most burning real political will among the coun- PROCESS ON THE GROUND one. try’s leadership. try of Internal Affairs service cen- Courts: from kangaroos Police: from on the take ter and services,” “On amending to justice to on the job certain legislative acts of Ukraine The key problem with Ukraine’s ju- The fastest pace was set among the to improve the regulation of rela- diciary has always been corruption, police, known by the soviet moni- tions in the process of ensuring political influence over judges and ker “militsia.” And no wonder, road safety.” their overall lack of effectiveness. given the odious image law en- In addition, some of the prom- Probably the most resonant bill to forcement officials in Ukraine have ises made in November have al- be passed was in April 2014, the after the way that Maidan protest- ready been fulfilled. The Bureau for Law “On restoring trust in the judi- ers were persecuted and killed by Combating Organized Crime has ciary branch of power in Ukraine,” Interior Ministry forces. In the first been disbanded, as have the veteri- which established the process for six months after Russia’s direct ag- nary and transport police, the pro- lustrating the ranks of judges. Un- gression and its “separatist” opera- cess of training a new patrol service fortunately, the process of bringing tion in Eastern Ukraine began, has begun, and the central appara- judges to justice and changing the changes in the Ministry of Internal tus of the MIA has been cut back. governing bodies was almost com- Affairs came down only to the dis- At the same time, nothing has pletely blocked and sabotaged at banding of the infamous Berkut been done to decentralize the ad- the local level. President Poroshen- special forces, who were com- ministrative system, there’s no talk ko’s National Development Strat- pletely discredited after the of establishing a municipal police, egy calls for 70% of all judges to be Maidan, and the transformation of the organization of a national po- replaced by 2020 but so far, there’s the Internal Forces into the Na- lice force has not been settled, and not much movement to reach this tional Guard. so on. The biggest problem is the goal. 18|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 Reforms|focus three Prosecutors General who were dismissed this past year were openly uninterested in seeing changes to their organizations, albeit for different reasons. The Prosecutor’s Office remains a punitive instrument in the hands of the President. And this is despite the fact that on October 14, 2014, the Verk- hovna Rada adopted a new Law “On the Prosecutor’s Office,” which contains a number of very positive changes. It drops prosecutorial oversight of the enforcement and application of laws, especially in the private sector; it es- tablishes a competitive system for appointing prosecutors in order to increase their independence; it anticipates the establishment of such bodies as prosecutorial governing bodies such as an All-

photo by u nian by photo Ukrainian Conference of Prosecu- torial Employees and a Council of The next step in reforming the A patrol car prosecutors, legal aid, legislation Prosecutors of Ukraine. Finally, a justice system was the formation of the new on the enforcement of court deci- rule is established forbidding last fall of a Judiciary Reform Ukrainian police sions, and a bill changing the pro- prosecutors to issue verbal orders Council, which includes both and public visions of the Constitution of in their work. Ukrainian and European legal ex- discussion Ukraine that regulate the court Nevertheless, the first real of its new perts. The Council’s first task was design shows system. changes became evident only in to develop a Concept of Judiciary changes in the Still, it has to be said that most March 2015, under Prosecutor Reform, which led to the Feb. 12, communication of the positive steps mentioned General Viktor Shokin, when the 2015, adoption of the Law “On en- strategy in have had little real impact on the number of district prosecutors suring the right to a just court” by Ukraine's law judiciary in Ukraine. Ukrainian was reduced and the professional the Verkhovna Rada. This law es- enforcement courts continue to issue contro- recertification of prosecutors be- tablishes the fundamental princi- authorities versial rulings and lustration has gan. There’s also supposed to be a ples of judiciary reform and calls barely touched the judges’ process of open competitions to for judges to be selected on a com- benches, especially when it comes fill in vacancies among prosecu- petitive basis, requires them to be to top positions and the system in tors in the course of judicial lus- completely re-licensed, and in- the Ministry of Justice. Middle tration. Shokin’s Georgian deputy, cludes a clear list of the causes for and lower ranks keep sabotaging David Sakvarelidze, has promised sequestering, dismissal and disci- the implementation of already ad- the first real results in the next six plinary proceedings. opted laws. Moreover, there’s the months or so. International standards are matter of the legislation itself, Once again, the biggest prob- supposed to be applied to the way which calls for completely innova- lem is local sabotage in the imple- courts are set up, their personnel tive laws to be introduced only af- mentation of approved laws. But and activities streamlined, and ter there is a fully functional there’s another problem, a some- judges appointed to administrative Higher Council of Justice, but the what smaller one: the new Law “On posts. Executive bodies will not Council has been unable to meet the Prosecutor’s Office” is sup- have any input into the procedure properly for the past year. posed to come into effect on April for setting up courts and determin- 26, 2015, but because of flaws in its ing the number of judges on their Prosecutors: transitional provisions and of de- benches. The law also amends the no more witch hunts liberate inaction on the part of ex- organization and procedure for set- and foot-dragging PG Vitaliy Yarema, this reform ting up the Higher Qualification The third component of the law could fail. Above and beyond all Commission of Judges of Ukraine, enforcement block is the prosecu- this, experts say that there could which will operate as part of the torial system (for more details, still be legal and institutional col- Qualification and Disciplinary see Serhiy Ivanov interview, p. lapse if the old law expires before Chambers. 12). This is where the situation is the new one comes into force. The In addition, a Bill “On the jus- possibly the most difficult, be- Prosecutor’s Office could well be tice system and the status of cause its legislative underpin- paralyzed because there are several judges” was passed on December nings are even weaker than those bills on the table in the Verkhovna 17, 2014. According to the Con- governing the police and judi- Rada that propose delaying this cept, the next step should be ciary, and the system itself is a far new law for several years. And so changes to procedural law, im- more intractably indivisible. And the reform of the Prosecutor’s Of- proving legislation on the Bar and of course, the fact that all of the fice is now up in the air. № 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|19 Focus|Reforms haps in some way with even greater authority than before. Here's an interesting point: Yarema (Vitaliy Sergii Ivanov: Yarema is ex-Prosecutor General preceding the current one, Viktor Shokin – Ed.), till his last day in office, lobbied the resumption of the "The year after Maidan PGO's role as a primary supervisor. Remember how many times he said that he lacked authority? Why? Be- was a year of missed cause, same as in 2005, this body is used as the hammer to slaughter exclusively those who have not come opportunities in reform to terms with those in power. Espe- cially in a situation when the police are no longer controlled by the of the prosecution" President, and the head of the SBU Valentyn Nalyvaychenko has taken n October 14, 2014, the Par- Interviewed into the same trap as his predeces- a neutral position. That is why nei- liament adopted the Law by sors, trying to keep it under his total ther Poroshenko nor the prosecu- "On the Prosecutor's Of- Bohdan control. tors are in a hurry to get rid of their Ofice." It has several impor- Butkevych powers, since the law enforcement tant novelties related to the admin- U.W.: What was, in your opinion, bodies are again divided between istrative functions of this body, but the first thing that had to be the various centers of power in the the main problems, such as pre-trial changed at the Prosecutor Gener- government. The PGO was to be left investigation and supervision of al's Office? without its main corruption lever, other bodies, are still present, albeit – In fact, the PGO a year ago investigation. However, an impor- in a slightly truncated form. The had to do several things: combine tant question arises: ok, if it will Ukrainian Week spoke about the all cases related to Maidan into one have no investigative functions, changes that have taken place at the trial, taking all investigations from then who will investigate high pro- Ukrainian prosecution service over the police, do the same with respect file cases? We still don't have a Cor- the past year to Sergii Ivanov, for- to all cases of separatism, bring ruption Bureau, the police are capa- mer investigating prosecutor with them to court, and proceed to its ble of acting only on paper, and pro- many years of experience. Today, he own reorganization. But unfortu- fessional qualifications of SBU is a popular blogger and an active nately, our government decided investigators, even at the time of my participant of the lustration pro- that it still needed the Prosecutor's employment at the Prosecutor's Of- cesses underway at the Prosecutor Office with the old powers, or per- fice, were considered to be the low- General's Office. U.W.: What changes, if any, have taken place at the Ukrainian prosecution service over the last year? – The year after the victory of the Maidan revolution can be considered a year of missed opportunities to reform the prosecution. In fact, no real changes to the system have occurred. The Ukrainian prosecution has not become, as it is in the US, a link between the investigating authorities and the court, where it also would have to represent the state. Instead, it has remained almost on the same ground on which it was established as far back as the reign of Peter the Great, performing the function of the monarch's spies. Un- fortunately, despite being independent on paper, it just keeps carrying out orders from the top. Because if a President, as in Russia, says: "I ordered to the Prosecutor," he would have to be brought before court. The Prosecutor General's Office should be an independent body to which people may appeal, but may not give orders. But Poroshenko is walking 20|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 Reforms|Focus est. Today we can see their worth in BIO appropriate Prosecutor General in That's why the cause of the Georgian cases related to separatism, such as Sergii Ivanov is a the past 20 years, according to my team has all chances to fail. Al- lawyer, blogger, the case of Donetsk and Luhansk and opinion jour- experiences as an ordinary em- though I personally believe that the regional bosses of the Party of Re- nalist. He was ployee, was, strange as it may sound, Georgians will at least be able to gions. The Prosecutor General's Of- born in 1976 in Svyatoslav Piskun. He was the only change if not the system then a large fice must "fall" as a major strong- Svatove, Luhansk one who really tried to fight bureau- part of the staff, which is not bad ei- hold of corruption. I am confident Oblast. He ob- cracy at his agency, all those constant ther. I've had a look at the methodol- that this will happen, because this is tained his degree business trips and expenditure re- ogy offered by Sakvarelidze. It simply the public demand in a situ- in law at Volody- ports, and so on. He did not allow sounds right: lustration first, fol- ation when the prosecutor's title has myr Dahl East the prosecution to become a money lowed by competitive selection. become a stigma. This means that a Ukrainian Na- making enterprise, as Pshonka (Vik- complete restaffing is needed. Yes, I tional University. tor Pshonka, ex-PG under the Yanu- U.W.: What is your opinion on the Since 1998, he latest high-profile cases and the understand that we are at war, and worked at the kovych presidency – Ed.) did. this issue may not seem to be press- Prosecutor's Of- role of the prosecution in this re- ing, but there are no other options. fice of Luhansk U.W.: A lot is being said about the spect? By the way, the salaries at the Pros- Oblast. He re- Western pressure on Ukraine to – The detention of Bochkovsky ecutor's Office and good, so people signed in 2008. implement reforms, primarily of and Stoyetsky (Head of the State willing to work there, even for offi- Today he works the law enforcement. Emergencies Department Serhiy cial wages, will always be in large as a legal adviser – The policy of the Western Bochkovsky and his deputy Vasyl supply. Just one example: the head countries towards reforms is simple: Stoyetsky were detained at a ses- of a department, chief accountant of they control them and gradually in- sion of the Cabinet of Ministers in the Department of Planning, Ac- filtrate their own people, mostly front of TV cameras. They are counting, Reporting, Internal Con- Georgians. In fact, this gives me charged with embezzlement of trol and Audit of the Prosecutor hope: they give us money and will state funds – Ed.) was very ques- General's Office, Yerkhova earned hold us accountable for every penny. tionable from the perspective of the about 400,000 UAH in 2013. Assis- For instance, they lobbied the candi- Criminal Procedure Code, because tant accountants earned 270,000 dacy of Eka Zguladze for the Interior it doesn't provide the grounds for UAH. And they are even not prose- Ministry, and David Sakvarelidze for this arrest. This is why the reaction cutors. Prosecutors earn even more, the Prosecutor General's Office. I of the Prosecutor General's Office, absolutely legally. had a chance to talk to David, and I namely, its refusal to sanction the can say that he makes no secret of arrest, is explained not only by the U.W.: Let's dwell on personalities. the fact that his views on the prose- money received for this, but also by How would you assess the last cution service are quite different the poor work of police investiga- three Prosecutors General that from Shokin's ideas. He makes a tors. As for Yefremov (ex-leader of held this office during the last very good impression. The man the Party of Regions faction in VR, year? openly says that he has a year to Oleksandr Yefremov, was arrested – Talking about personalities, make changes, and he understands in February, then released on bail Vitaliy Yarema came to the Prosecu- that the main task today is to purge – Ed.), I believe that we are wit- tor's Office having no idea about the at least the most infamous represen- nessing a rigged game, I mean, he specifics of its work. The current PG has an agreement with the authori- Viktor Shokin is a true professional The policy of the Western ties, who understand that someone who wants to do something, but he's needs to be given to the crowd. a fossil who wants to increase the countries towards Therefore, he will either be acquit- preferences for his agency, rather reforms to control them ted or incur some symbolic punish- than to bring it in line with the reali- ment that will soon be lifted. ties of the civilized world. He can "rip and gradually infiltrate Charges of "Inciting ethnic hatred" and tear," because all of his life he their own people. pursuant to Article 358 that are be- worked as an investigator. In fact, he ing trumped up have no chances. wants to punish and rap, but is try- this gives me hope For me, the question remains – ing to strengthen the position of the why nobody of his team that is per- Prosecutor's Office without making tatives of the old system. But, unfor- sonally responsible for fuelling war any changes. Nevertheless, he is un- tunately, his efforts may not be suf- and separatism in Luhansk Oblast der the full control of the President. ficient. The system built at the Pros- was arrested, when they were all Oleh Makhnitsky (ex-PG preceding ecutor's Office is totally corrupt and here in Kyiv. They had to be de- Vitaliy Yarema – Ed.) in fact is a no- very resistant to changes. If an in- tained and forced to give up their body, just forget his name. When he vestigator for some reason does not boss, in return for some kind of a took the post, he basically had to put want to investigate a case, he has all deal. Unfortunately, in most of everyone in jail, but he kept procras- the opportunities not to do it. It these cases, big money has already tinating and receiving nice money won't be easy to fire him, even for been paid. There are quite a lot of for it, I can say this openly. He was a the Prosecutor General. The easiest questions even with respect to the sort of a Yushchenko of the Ukrai- thing for such an investigator would murder in Volnovakha of an SBU nian prosecution service, who killed be going to the political party cur- officer Viktor Mandzyk, because it all hopes for justice by missing the rently under investigation to ask for is still unclear from which gun he moment when all the trash could protection. And then going to the was shot, they can't show it to us, have been swept easily out of European Court is not a problem. and a lot of procedural steps have Ukraine, because the trash was According to Sakvarelidze, the sabo- not been followed, without which frightened at that point. The most tage of changes is overwhelming. the case will not hold water. № 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|21 Focus|Reforms Mykola Sunhurovsky: "It is impossible to reform the army today; we can only improve what we already have" Interviewed irector of Military Pro- by Dmytro grammes at the Razumkov Krapyvenko Centre spoke to The Ukrai- Dnian Week about the prog- ress of reforms in the national security and defense sector, the modernization of the army and the changes that the Armed Forces could undergo today. U.W.: What did the new government manage to achieve in the area of the military reform? – Last April, the National Se- curity and Defense Council passed a resolution on a comprehensive review of the security sector within four months. Unfortu- nately, red tape and sabotage hampered this. There have been some attempts of the Cabinet to launch the process, but they seemed to be rather formal. I personally witnessed that the Minis- try of Defense received a request to assist in carrying out such a review. Moreover, it is the only body that performed such overview since the end of 2008. However, the Ministry did not want to take this responsibility. It ended up with carrying out strictly the defense part of the comprehensive review, rather than examining the entire security sector. Today, the reform of the law enforcement is on the agenda, which is to be implemented throughout the security sector. If we keep moving in this direction, that is, reforming the Defense Ministry, the law enforcement, the judicial system

and the State Emergency Service andriy lomakin by photo separately, this will result in de- stroying all vertical and horizon- training system, and regulate pro- instance, following the example of tal communications. For now, we cedures that simply do not work. the United States, we could launch need to stabilize the situation and the staffing policy reassessment to embark on the reforms that can U.W.: Is war a good time to bring program. If an officer has acquit- be implemented today. For exam- about changes in the army? ted himself well in battle, he de- ple, launch the anti-corruption – Today it is impossible to reserves a promotion. If not, he has action, carry out personnel form the army; we can only im- to go either to the front or into re- purges, improve the personnel prove what we already have. For tirement. Today we can also im- 22|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 Reforms|Focus plement reforms related to creating a peacekeeper requires good BIO ders. In the previous years, spending new military structures, such will. Therefore, the army has to be Mykola Sunhu- ing on the army was minimized, rovsky was born as assault units staffed with the based on contract soldiers, while in 1951 in Mos- 86% of the allocated funds being Right Sector soldiers. conscripts can be used for staffing cow. He gradu- used for military personnel. An ef- the army with cooks, barbers, and ated from Oren- ficient structure is impossible U.W.: Does Ukraine need to re- so on. The employees of these pro- burg Higher Mili- when only 25% are earmarked for sume compulsory military ser- fessions can be simply hired, but tary Air Defense weapons. It will never be funded vice? this should be done without the Forces School properly under very limited – People are not born contract current corruption. There have (1972); Kyiv Air spending on the military. To my soldiers. They come into the been some reasonable proposals Defense Forces question of how many adopted Armed Forces from the labor mar- to outsource the catering function, Academy (1982); models never made it to produc- but they were rejected. Any inno- and Higher tion, the answer was: "100%." ket. The personnel reserve has to School of Entre- be prepared to provide staff for vation can be spoilt by corruption. preneurship of That is, they did not go either into the contract army. If we look at One company may receive all pub- Kyiv Institute of production or to the troops. the contract figures, each year lic procurement orders and, in the National Econ- Ukraine recruited about 9,000 absence of competition, raise omy (1991). He U.W.: How many new models of conscripts, 8,000 of whom re- prices by several times, with no rerited as colonel military equipment or weapons signed after the first year of ser- option to refuse. This is how the after 31 years of have been launched into serial vice. There were no material base scheme operates. military service. production lately? and no social motives to serve un- Since February – There is no money for that. der contract. When we conducted U.W.: Is the modernization of the 2000, Mr. Sun- The budget does not provide for it. army and its equipment justified, hurovsky has a survey of the people who had been freelance To launch production, you need signed the contract, the most pop- being quite expensive? Consultant to the money to purchase the models to ular reason they quoted was the – Army modernization and National Security be produced. A series is a certain opportunity to get a profession, development are hindered by the and Defense amount of weapons ordered by the not the salary. A quality military mess in the management system. I Committee of Armed Forces. When there is no profession is worth a lot. When have taken part in many meetings, the Verkhovna order, the budget does not allocate the professional army is created and one of the key issues has al- Rada of Ukraine; the money for it. The new samples (and service under contract is not ways been improving the manage- and Director of include Stugna anti-tank missile the same as a professional army), ment system, and then creating Military Pro- systems or defense helicopters, but the term of enlistment has to be the post of a deputy prime minis- grammes of the if the costs are not provided for in Razumkov Centre increased from one year to two or ter or an agency that would coor- since December the budget, the Army will place no even two and a half. When a man dinate the work. The system in 2006 orders for the serial production. serves for one year, he spends half question reflects techniques for its a year training and half a year organization. Without them, it will U.W.: Is there is a need to reform waiting for the discharge from the not work. First of all, you need to the Ukrinian military Charter? army. A good professional needs develop the organization tech- How to ensure its enaction? to master his skills during a longer nique and to specify what exactly – This is a matter of responsi- period. For those who will serve in will be managed. If you say that bility that should go from top to the infantry, two years will be the you want to manage production, I bottom. When middle managers optimum, while training those will say that the main thing is to be are responsible for everything, who deal with high-tech weapons able to manage the process of sup- and equipment will take more plying the weapons to the military, time. It is impossible to master a that is, the entire lifecycle. What THE MESS IN THE profession within a year. These we need is the technique of coor- MANAGEMENT SYSTEM factors need to be taken into ac- dinated actions, then we can cre- count, but no one wants to do it. ate those who will perform them: HINDERS ARMY Populism is what people prefer. jobs, institutions, agencies, and so MODERNIZATION AND Unless we transform ourselves on. Then it will become clear what from the electorate into a nation, the reforms are about. All links in DEVELOPMENT any reforms will be useless. the chain need to cooperate. It's not just about the powers of a spe- and the top ones for nothing, then U.W.: Does this mean that today cific agency. Any management the middle managers are not mo- there is no vision of what the system can be called this name, tivated to stick to the Charter. The army should be? but this will not make it better or rest is about systemic issues. It is – Its core should be made of worse. Recently, there was a press impossible to harmonize individ- contract soldiers. It is hard to conference attended by the repre- ual provisions; you need to change imagine a good professional at a sentatives of Ukroboronprom, a everything, taking into account stage of a conscript. What we need state-owned group of military the changes not only to the types are not conscripts. We will always equipment and ammunition sup- of combat operations, but also to live in a state of war. Times of pliers, and the Ministry of De- the structure of the army. Change peace will come, when Ukraine fense. Ukroboronprom has to en- will only take place when we con- will become a member of the in- sure the execution of orders (ob- duct a comprehensive review and ternational security system and tain the requirements, the implement the real reforms based will send Ukrainian peacekeeprs weapons list and the funds neces- on the adopted model. Until we to different places, made up exclu- sary to complete the order), while have adopted a model, we cannot sively of contract soldiers. Becom- the latter has to place public or- change the Charter. № 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|23 Politics|Oligarchs The Phantom of Deoligarchization Taming a few oligarchs will not change the oligarchic system, since Ukraine still has no organized alternative to it in the form of civil society or small and medium businesses photo: u nian photo:

Author: he attack on Ihor Kolo- preserved, and their economic, po- while, the position of the favorites Oles moisky," as it was litical and media assets remained of the previous regime – Dmytro Oleksiyenko dubbed by observers intact. In this way, the system has Firtash currently under arrest in "Tand experts, intensified remained almost unharmed, and Vienna and especially Rinat the public discussion on what is go- due to the weakness of the state Akhmetov – gradually weakened. ing on in the country. Is it the start and the external threat, the role of The latter has become for Ukraini- of the deoligarchization process or the oligarchs has only increased. ans the symbol of support for sepa- just another redistribution of However, the developments of the ratists and lost a large share of his spheres of influence? The Ukrai- past year have significantly assets and profits through the an- nian Week also tried to analyze the changed the balance of power nexation of Crimea and the war in implications of the recent develop- within the system. Donbass. Viktor Pinchuk, who tra- ments and the new setup of Ukrai- Following the victory in the ditionally had a complex relation- nian oligarchs. presidential elections, the political ship with Ihor Kolomoisky, feels weight of Petro Poroshenko has increasingly uncomfortable. At the REBALANCING soared. The position of Ihor Kolo- same time, Ihor Yeremeyev and First of all, it should be noted that moisky, the head of Dnipropetro- Kostyantyn Hryhoryshyn started the removal of Yanukovych from vsk Regional State Administration, playing a much more active role in power a year ago has dramatically who increasingly claimed to be the the political and economic life of increased the role of the oligarchs "Viceroy of the South East," the country. in the country. This was inevitable strengthened due to his active atti- The traditions of Ukrainian oli- in the situation of an evolutionary tude towards fighting separatism garchs involved using stealthy le- power shift, when the old Parlia- and protecting the country from vers to influence the authorities ment formed by the oligarchs was the Russian aggression. Mean- and obtain preferences, as well as 24|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 Oligarchs|Politics the access to public assets and cash were sold at underestimated prices, about a third of the electricity sup- flows. However, Ihor Kolomoisky’s and was recently faced with the at- plies to end users through its own behavior recently went beyond the tempts of bereaving his regional regional power distribution com- familiar paradigm: he publicly and gas companies of gas distribution panies, the largest of which are Ky- openly demonstrated his contempt networks acquired in 2012. Akhme ivenergo and Dniproenergo. A for the official government institu- tov lost a significant share of state number of power distribution com- tions, resorting to threats of raid- subsidies for the "green" tariff, panies belong to the Russian oli- ing state assets. which was recently reduced by half, garch Kostyantyn Hryhoryshyn, In fact, Kolomoisky refused to had to give up his monopoly in mentioned above. recognize Poroshenko's authority as electricity exports, and failed to the head of state, which raised the lobby the financing of his power NEW FAVOURITES question of the country's manage- generating facilities in the territo- Recently, the new favorites ability both for its citizens and for ries occupied by terrorists by Ener- emerged, rapidly increasing their outside observers. It has to be noted goRynok state enterprise. share in the country's most profit- that Kolomoisky, unlike other oli- However, it is very important able and strategic markets through garchs, had an additional resource that the current move results not their influence in the top echelons in the form of volunteer battalions only in changing the personalities of power. These are the group of and, according to sources, con- pursuing their own interests and Ihor Yeremeyev, an oligarch from stantly threatened using them to parasitizing on state-owned com- Volyn region, who is considered to protect his business interests. In panies, but also in the real receipt/ be Kolomoisky's main rival in the oil these circumstances, taming the saving of funds by those companies market and, again, Kostyantyn Hry- headstrong magnate was the matter and the state budget. For example, horyshyn. The role played by these of survival for the President, who during the scandal with UkrTrans two may soon become similar to was in this case backed by the West Nafta, the representatives of Kolo- that played by Firtash and Akhme- and the other oligarchs. moisky's team openly stated that tov during the Yanukovych times. In this way, the situation with the companies of which Firtash The co-owner of Continuum Kolomoisky should not be consid- was making a good hand until re- Group Ihor Yeremeyev also con- ered as an episode in the warfare cently, including Vilnohirsk refin- trols a group of MPs of both the against the oligarchic system as ery, keep using the same corrupt previous and the current Parlia- such, but rather as a fight with one schemes, but their beneficiaries are ment, which formally belonged to of its representatives, who wanted now Prime Minister Yatsenyuk and to rise above the rules, creating a his gray cardinal Mykola Mar- threat to the system. It is telling tynenko. The tasty morsels of the It is just about drawing that these same motives were energy market and the attractive the "red lines" which quoted by President Poroshenko to assets that have been or may soon explain the recent events. For in- be lost by Firtash and Akhmetov, cannot be crossed, stance, in an interview to ICTV according to the media, are either but not about dismantling channel on March 28 he said: "... already owned by the Russian oli- While we are trying to bring order garch Hryhoryshyn or will soon the system as such to the country, they (the oligarchs pass into his hands. – Ed.) are bringing chaos. Military However, today nobody is talk- the ruling coalition, and now is ac- convoys in the city, UkrNafta divi- ing about countering the oligarchs' tually a part of it. Andriy Pyvovar- dends, the murder of an SBU em- monopolism as such, let alone cur- sky, Yeremeyev's henchman, is ployee – all of this is chaos, which I tailing their influence on the public now one of the ministers of the cur- will not tolerate. This is absolutely policy, which they exercise through rent government, and his People's not the matter of names. The caste their own MPs or even political Will parliamentary group often of the privileged will be elimi- parties in the Parliament and in lo- votes in unison with the coalition, nated." Even though the head of cal councils, their henchmen in the sometimes compensating for the state called it a "deoligarchization," government agencies responsible lack of discipline in its ranks. Peo- as we can see, it is just about draw- for regulating certain economy sec- ple from Kolomoisky's inner circle ing the "red lines" which cannot be tors, etc. do not deny their conflict with crossed, and not about striving to Kolomoisky, for instance, until Yeremeyev's group and its interest dismantle the system as such. recently blocked the implementa- in pushing out Kolomoisky's man- Another obvious motive for the tion of the Open Skies agreement agers from UkrTransNafta and attack on oligarchs was to forbid with the EU that threatened his UkrNafta, and even call this a de- them access to the revenues of monopoly in the airline market. fining motif in the recent confron- state enterprises, mainly monopo- Nothing has been done to remedy tation. Yeremeyev is allegedly close lies. This was evident both in the this situation. The total monopoli- to Ihor Kononenko, a business case of UkrNafta, when the conflict zation of the energy sector by the partner and a longtime friend of with Kolomoisky occurred, and in Russian-oriented oligarchs has President Poroshenko. the relations of the authorities with been preserved, despite the energy However, much closer attention other Ukrainian oligarchs, such as war: 70% of regional and munici- should be paid to the figure of an- Dmytro Firtash and Rinat Akhme- pal gas distribution companies are other Poroshenko's favorite, Rus- tov. Firtash last year lost the con- owned by Firtash, and 30% of elec- sian oligarch Kostyantyn Hryho- trol over the earlier "leased" state- tricity and 70% of coal are pro- ryshyn. The Energy Minister Vladi- owned Irshansk and Vilnohirsk duced by DTEK owned by Rinat mir Demchyshyn appointed on iron ore refineries, whose products Akhmetov. DTEK also controls BPP's quota is considered to be his № 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|25 Politics|Oligarchs protégé. Recently, Samopomich MP In these conditions, Kolo- Lev Pidlisetsky accused Hryho- moisky has a chance of placing to ryshyn of establishing total control local councils and, in the case of over UkrEnergo National Energy early parliamentary elections, to Company, the operator of Ukraine's the Parliament a considerable unified energy system, where the number of his own deputies as entire management staff was re- part of one or several political placed, "including department groups. It is unlikely that he will heads." The media also associated want to become a public politi- the disruption of contracts for sup- cian, at least in the long run. First plies of South African coal to Ukrai- of all, it involves certain risks, be- nian state-owned thermal power cause high expectations can rap- plants last fall with Hryhoryshyn's idly turn into hatred and irrita- schemes. tion. However, Kolomoisky may There is every reason to be be- form a more or less wide associa- ware of Hryhoryshyn becoming for tion designed to prevent the re- President Poroshenko what Firtash venge of his foes Akhmetov or was for Yushchenko during the lat- Firtash and to weaken the influ- ter's presidency. Hryhoryshyn and u nian photo: ence of his opponents from the Poroshenko are old business part- current government camp. ners. There were times when they The Kremlin tious political projects with the pri- One more oligarch, Dmytro seems to be together even tried to buy a con- counting on mary purpose of eliminating the Firtash, has actually started on the trolling stake in Inter TV channel Kostyantyn current coalition, or at least its path shown by Bidzina Ivanishvili. from Ihor Pluzhnikov, and since Hryhoryshyn to main actors. The lawsuit brought against him in 2007, they have jointly controlled exercise subtle Kolomoisky's allies make no Austria is slowly coming to nought Sevastopol Marine Plant. This pressure on secret of their intentions to take re- due to the lack of evidence, as he is means that the Kremlin may exer- Poroshenko, venge for the defeat and humilia- preparing for a triumphant return cise subtle pressure on Poroshenko as it once did tion. They categorically rejected to Ukraine with the electoral through Hryhoryshyn, as it once on Yushchenko the possibility of playing a separat- agenda that is becoming more and did on Yushchenko through through Firtash ism card, but their more active par- more obvious. Firtash, offering him attractive ticipation in the political struggle is At the pompous Ukraine To- business schemes that would bring to be expected. It is encouraged by morrow forum held in Vienna in Ukraine closer to Russia. Contracts the just frustration of the popula- early March, Firtash presented his for the supply of coal and electricity tion by the political actors of the own initiative of the country's from Russia signed this winter can ruling coalition and, primarily, by modernization and alternative de- be regarded as the first examples of the President's and Prime Minis- velopment. At the meeting, the es- such pressure. ter's activities. This negative atti- tablishment of the Agency for One should not be deceived by The co-owner tude towards the authorities can be Modernization of Ukraine was an- the facts that Kostyantyn Hryho- of Continuum expected to grow, since the socio- nounced, with the task to prepare a ryshyn was named among the main Group Ihor economic situation in the country step-by-step plan to assimilate sponsors of the Orange Revolution, Yeremeyev is is projected to deteriorate. At the USD 300 billion of investment re- that he is a native of Zaporizhya, rapidly gaining same time, the reorientation of the quired for its implementation. This and that the lion's share of his assets weight. His disillusioned voters towards the process should be completed by the parliamentary is in Ukraine (Energy Standard, group formally Opposition Bloc is likely to be min- end of September this year, that is, which manages a number of re- belonged to the imal. If its rating grows, it will be at the height of the local elections gional power distribution compa- parliamentary first of all due to the activation of campaign (if it is not postponed). nies, UkrRichFlot, Zaporizhya Su- majority, and the traditional PR and/or CPU The fact that a complimentary TV per-Power Transformers Plant, Za- now is actually electorate that was passive during spot on the event was immediately porizhTransformator, Sumy Frunze a part of it the last election. aired by Russia's First Channel is Machine-Building Science and Pro- telling. duction Association, etc). Despite Firtash has signaled that he his Ukrainian origin, Hryhoryshyn will place his stake on populism is a typical Russian oligarch, whose and the return of the country to the prospects depend primarily on his Russian sphere of influence. In manageability and usefulness for particular, he stated that it is im- the Kremlin. He not only holds the portant to start with the constitu- Russian passport, but also lives in tional reform aimed at ensuring Moscow, and his business is closely the country's federalization or de- associated with Russian state- centralization, "because without owned companies, where he has this task, nothing can be changed." branched connections (Gazprom, He also said that despite the "pain- Inter RAO UES, etc.). ful relations with Russia, Ukraine should become not a footstep, but a THE LAUREL WREATH bridge between Europe, Russia and OF UKRAINIAN IVANISHVILI Asia. We need to establish a com- At least two Ukrainian oligarchs mon market, instead of looking in may soon launch their own ambi- u nian photo: one direction or another." 26|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 Oligarchs|Politics Since the modernization was European news channel Euronews (which would only increase insta- formally initiated by the Employ- and Inter Media Group announced bility), or by the current bureau- ers' Federation of Ukraine con- on March 13 the signing of a license crats and security forces (which is trolled by Firtash and the trade agreement for the launch of its also no good for the country). unions equally dependent on him, Ukrainian version. While the sign- For the real and, most impor- the oligarch's speech and initiative ing of such agreement with Firtash's tantly, effective deoligarchization were filled with populist proposals media resources was long opposed that would contribute to the coun- that he somehow did not bother to by the Euronews' major French try's dynamic development, we implement at his numerous enter- shareholders (23.9% stake), the need an organized alternative in prises in Ukraine in the previous positive results were achieved after the form of an institutionalized years. In particular, according to 53% of the channel's shares were civil society or powerful and orga- Firtash, "the strategy of attracting unexpectedly acquired for EUR 35 nized political forces based on the investors to the country with cheap million by a Egyptian billionaire active participation of small and labor is wrong." Besides, he criti- Naguib Sawiris in early March 2015. cized the current government for An interesting coincidence... The country still has its national austerity program, saying that "we must understand that THE SINE QUA NON no organized progressive people have to live. Not only in 25 In the absence of an organized po- force to take the place years, but already today we need to litical force or a broad civic move- make great strides to see daily im- ment capable of taking the respon- that will remain vacant provements in the situation and sibility for the development of the after the oligarchs are the living standards." Such ideas country and its fundamental trans- may prove to be popular before the formation, instead of the imitation removed from power local and, quite possibly, early par- thereof, the citizen's inclination to- liamentary elections, when the wards populism will always be medium-sized businesses. The des- population is tired of the belt tight- used by the oligarchs for their own perate fight on Maidan has to be ening policy that was launched in benefit. The country still has no or- continued in new forms, otherwise 2014 and worsened in 2015. ganized progressive force to take neither the courage to overthrow In addition to organizing such the place that will remain vacant the regime nor the deaths of the high-profile PR activities, Firtash's after the oligarchs are removed hundreds of heroes will help dis- team also has a more systematic ap- from power. This place could be mantling the system that still con- proach to the problem of Ukraine's filled either by the representatives trols all parliamentary political perception in Europe. For example, of big businesses of a smaller scale groups, this time or in the future. neighbours|US & Ukraine Adrift In Washington The reasons for American inaction

s of late March 2015 and Author: rous response to this aggression. despite multiple calls and Stephen First, US policy emphasizes al- pressures for aiding Blank, lied unity above all. It therefore AUkraine the Obama Ad- Senior Fellow moves at the speed of the slowest ministration still refused to send American ship in the convoy. Our Euro- Ukraine lethal weapons for its Foreign Policy pean allies are visibly and pre- defense against Russia’s continu- council dictably terrified of any escala- ing aggression. Indeed, only on tion because mentally and mate- March 20 did it finally agree to rially no European government send trainers for Ukraine’s Na- is ready to fully acknowledge the tional Guard, not its army. Ad- scale of the Russian threat and ministration officials have the sacrifices that must be made openly stated the reasons for this to resist it. Indeed, many Euro- policy but here we offer a deeper pean countries reduced defense analysis of what lies beneath spending last year despite this those statements. war. Moreover, virtually every Depending on which official European government and is speaking we find the following therefore Washington also be- arguments. Since Ukraine is not lieves that not only are they not a member of NATO neither obligated to defend Ukraine but America nor NATO is obligated also that sending it arms will to defend it or send it arms. Nei- only worsen the situation. Alleg- ther does the 1994 Budapest edly Russia enjoys what special- Agreement represent a guaran- ists call escalation dominance. tee. Instead it offers assurances Second, for Russia and Putin and in the future need Russian that may or may not be fulfilled. Ukraine is a vital issue and for help. And since these elites rea- Others have argued against fi- them and Washington it is not son circularly that here is noth- nancial assistance because alleg- such an issue. Indeed, Washing- ing we can do to make things edly the money will be stolen due better other than sanctions we to pervasive corruption although To the extent that we shirk should not send arms as that will that argument has recently faded from defending order only provoke Putin to escalate in away. But its military corollary is ways we cannot match or worse that either Ukrainian troops and and Ukraine this might provoke a major, even the military command are rid- nuclear war in Europe. Here they dled with Russian spies, or they as we promised use the phrase “an asymmetry of will not know how to use the as- to do we facilitate will”, or in other words, suppos- sistance. Russian penetration is edly Russia wants Ukraine more. certainly well-documented. a broader European crisis More accurately, they fear Putin However, the Afghan Mujaha- more than he fears us. At the deen, who were rather backward ton is clearly more concerned same time many officials dismiss technologically compared to about the threat of ISIL and of Russia as a terminally declining Ukrainians, learned how to use Iran. There are also those in the power. Therefore, Ukrainians the Stinger anti-aircraft missile White House and Washington must learn to live with it and just sufficiently well to eject the Sovi- who still hope to resume arms let it gradually decline just as ets from Afghanistan. Therefore control negotiations for which Germany lived with the wall for that argument conceals deeper Russia would be an indispens- 28 years because the alternatives reasons for withholding aid. able partner. are all worse. There are fundamentally Consequently because those Actually these arguments re- three reasons beyond those argu- threats are supposedly greater flect the strategic illiteracy and ments for Washington’s timo- and Ukraine is less vital we now incompetence of both the Obama 28|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 US & Ukraine|neighbours invoke Robert McNamara’s action reaction syndrome without realizing that it was disproven thirty years ago. They also ig- nore signs that the Russian army may be reaching its culminating points. Heavy casualties, also re- ported by NATO, are forcing it to create units from the Russian Far East and it is opening the jails to prisoners with promises of freedom and payment if they will fight. Russia is also expend- ing enormous amounts of artillery shells as it economy sags ever more and the defense burden becomes increasingly oner- ous. Meanwhile NATO, the strongest military alliance in the world, has done little or nothing. There is also little thought given to acting strategically, i.e. not just sending arms but combining arms, military training, large- scale economic assistance to force reforms, energy exports to undermine Russia’s economy and standing in Europe, and a large-scale information campaign to break Russia’s dominance here. These leaders refuse or cannot grasp that it is essential and within our capacity to respond strategically to Russia to take the initiative away from Moscow and make Putin worry about our escalation rather than worry about his. Given NATO’s resources, if it had the will it

photo by ap by photo could, under American leadership, wrest the strategic initia- Administration and Europe. Even analogy of European leaders who US policy tive away from Putin. But instead more distressingly they also re- cravenly appeased Hitler and emphasizes Washington and European capi- veal the fear and lack of will to Mussolini hoping, in his words, allied unity tals are immobilized by their confront strategic realities that that the crocodile would eat above all. Our own fear, complacency and un- European allies grips these governments. Un- them last. They refuse to see are visibly and willingness to take Russia and its doubtedly Ukraine is a vital issue Russia’s threat for what it is and predictably threats seriously. for Putin who has staked his and cling to the already disproven terrified of The Russian proverb notes Russia’s future on it. But what hope that Putin can somehow be any escalation that fear has big eyes but that is these governments fail to realize bought off or that we can find because only true when the intended vic- is that Ukraine’s fate is no less vi- “an off-ramp” so that he can exit mentally and tim also suffers from myopia and tal to their and European security gracefully and we can return to materially faint heartedness. Already Mos- if not the overall international or- something like business as usual. no European cow is preparing a new offensive der. Putin does not only want to Such thinking not only reflects government is to seize more Ukrainian lands destroy any possibility of an inde- fear of Russia and of sacrificing ready to fully and all we have is empty rhetoric acknowledge pendent sovereign Ukrainian anything to defend their own lib- the scale of and mounting signs of EU dis- state, he wants to destroy the or- erty and security, it also fails to the Russian unity and lack of leadership. We der created in 1989-91 and his grasp that while Putin may seek threat and the may call the response to date a spokesmen and apologists in- rest stops where he can refuel his sacrifices that policy but it would be more accu- creasingly openly say so. To the car, he intends to go further. must be made rate to call it a craven, even extent that we shirk from defend- Even now the Minsk-2 agree- to resist it shameful abdication of policy ing that order and Ukraine as we ment is collapsing with multiple and strategy that is only storing promised to do we actually facili- Russian violations occurring ev- up greater costs for the inevita- tate a broader and greater Euro- ery day. ble larger crisis that will sooner pean crisis. Similarly the argument about rather than later strike not just Those political figures who escalation dominance is mis- Ukraine but Europe if not also argue thusly resemble Churchill’s placed. Some officials actually America. № 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|29 neighbours|US & Ukraine John Herbst: “The Administration does not understand that Mr. Putin’s ambitions are not limited to Ukraine”

strong. It has gotten better in recent months, but it’s still not good enough. The Administra- tion does not understand that Mr. Putin’s ambitions are not limited to Ukraine. He may threaten NATO allies, i.e. the Baltic States. Therefore, we need to deal with him in Ukraine. However, the problem of incom- plete understanding is not just in the United States, but in Europe, too. A year ago, there were not many people who realized what was going on: that this is a crisis of Kremlin revisionism. Now, I think, many senior officials in the Administration and even more in the Congress understand this. U.W.: Before Russia’s aggression on Ukraine, the Obama Ad- ministration’s foreign policy used to be described as “Asia pivot” that largely overlooked Europe. How accurate was that? And has it changed now? – I can understand why the Administration wanted to spend more time on Asia. This was based on the extraordinary rise there in the past 25 years. China is the world’s second largest economy today, and Japan and South Korea have huge econo- mies, too. Asia has become a big part of the world economy. The problem was not the Ad- ministration’s pivot to Asia – Interviewed by S Ambassador to Ukraine U.W.: What do you see as rea- which, by force of events, was in- Anna Korbut in 2003-2006 and cur- sons for Mr. Obama’s very cau- complete. The problem is that rently Director of the tious policy towards Ukraine the White Houses’ appreciation UDinu Patriciu Eurasia and Russia in the current crisis? of the situation in Europe has Center at the Atlantic Council – There seems to be no clear not been formed by strategic un- talks to The Ukrainian Week strategic understanding of the derstanding, as we discussed on factors that shape the United problem and a misunderstand- above. States’ foreign policy and why ing of the gravity of this crisis. Vladimir Putin must be stopped That’s why our policy is not suf- U.W.: It looks like sanctions will in Ukraine. ficiently comprehensive and remain the West’s main tool of 30|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 US & Ukraine|neighbours pressure against Russia’s ag- region seen in this context? Is it which everyone focused in the gression. However, some EU viewed as a serious threat in first place. Could that change member-states are reluctant to the West? now? What would it take for continue this policy. Does the – I think that the American Ukraine to become a regional United States have any lever- military and statesmen under- player? age to persuade these countries stand that Mr. Putin is deploying Two categories of things need to change their stance, or is it advanced weapons systems to to happen to ensure Ukraine’s only up to Chancellor Merkel? the peninsula. We keep track of future, to ensure its control over – The US has actually shown these things. However, I do not its territory and its ability to leadership in the sanction area. believe that they give the Krem- choose its own domestic and for- President Obama has provided a lin a new strategic advantage. eign policy. way forward on this question for There have been a relatively First, Ukraine needs to con- the United States, as well as for large number of visits by navy tinue its fight against Mr. Putin’s the West in general. He and his vessels of NATO countries in the aggression. But it needs the help Administration have taken time Black Sea in recent weeks. That of the West in that fight, and that to encourage the Europeans to is an indication of the West’s un- help comes in the form of strict take a stronger position on sanc- derstanding that the problem of sanctions on Russia and of sup- tions. Having said that, Chancel- Kremlin aggression in Crimea plying military equipment to lor Merkel is the only senior and the Donbas is growing. Ukraine, including defensive le- Western statesperson outside thal weapons. I believe that these the US dealing with the crisis. I U.W.: All that activity of NATO things can make it much harder think she has understood the im- does not do much for Ukraine. for Mr. Putin to push further. portance of maintaining sanc- Its core member-states, espe- The second thing is that the tions as a way to encourage Mos- cially the European ones, have government of Mr. Poroshenko cow to pursue the right policies. been reluctant to see Ukraine and Mr. Yatsenyuk need to move The United States and the EU as part of the Alliance - even af- decisively on reforms. In that, seem to be working closely to- ter Russia’s aggression in Geor- Ukraine needs support of the in- gether on this, and not at cross- gia. What would it take for purposes. It is true that the US Ukraine to get under the NATO We need to weaken Mr. has been stronger in arguing for umbrella – domestic reforms sanctions for Russia’s aggression and will, or a weakened Russia Putin so that he has fewer in Ukraine, but we have always that will no longer object it ag- resources with which understood that Europe pays a gressively? higher price for the sanctions ec- – I do not believe that the to conduct the aggression, onomically. prospects of NATO membership whether in Ukraine for Ukraine are any stronger now U.W.: If the sanctions affect the than they were a year ago. The or in any other place Russian economy as intended, main European member-states is there any strategic concept or have expressed reluctance to ac- ternational community and fi- planning in the West on what cept Ukraine to the Alliance nancial institutions. This assis- the post-sanction Russia could since the Bucharest Summit in tance should be forthcoming look like and what risks it could 2008. That has not changed. provided that the Poroshenko- entail? Since the Russian aggression Yatsenyuk government makes – The US Administration has began, however, the attitude in the right reforms. imposed sanctions to encourage Ukraine has changed substan- Both governments in Kyiv Mr. Putin to cease his aggres- tially. The majority of Ukraini- since former President Yanu- sion. The way it can work is that ans now want to join NATO. That kovych fled in February of 2014 the sanctions become so painful is something that would require – the interim government, Mr. that he sees as the leader of Rus- NATO to put together an action Yatsenyuk’s Cabinet, and then sia that he needs to stop his in- plan for Ukraine with a future the Administration of President terference, invasion in Ukraine. I membership prospect. But I Poroshenko -- could have moved believe this is plausible, although don’t think that is possible ei- more decisively on reforms. Fol- it is not guaranteed. ther, at least not in the immedi- lowing the presidential election, My personal belief is that the ate future. It is more important time was spent on campaigning sanctions have been important, for Ukraine at this point in time for the parliamentary elections even if they do not persuade Mr. to withstand the Russian aggres- in the fall. After the Rada elec- Putin to stop his aggression. sion, to stabilize the current tions, there were several weeks Since his ambitions reach be- ceasefire and to move quickly of political maneuvering between yond Ukraine, we need to and comprehensively in the parts Mr. Poroshenko and Mr. Yatse- weaken him so that he has fewer of the country under Kyiv’s full nyuk. This was all time lost for resources with which to conduct control to implement reform. reform. The budget presented to the aggression, whether in the Rada in December was at Ukraine or in any other place. U.W.: Before the aggression, best a half step forward on re- Ukraine was generally dis- form; but finally, earlier in U.W.: How is the intense milita- missed by many key Western March, the Rada passed a raft of rization of Crimea and the players as a country in the re- reform measures. We now need threat it poses to the Black Sea gion dominated by Russia on to see these bills implemented. № 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|31 Neighbours|US & Ukraine you must advance. It is somewhat difficult. It would have been easier for Bush to go ahead in Iraq, in Af- Alexander Motyl: ghanistan, and in Ukraine. I think, Obama gets justly accused for not being particularly strong in for- "Ukraine is important to the US eign policy issues, especially the ones related to security. After all, he is a man who spent his entire career at the local level. He is as a counterweight to Russia" rather a local politician, that is, for any man, the more so for a not the one dealing with global is- Interviewed by president, it is hard to change one sues, although he is capable of Olha Vorozhbyt course for another. Another rea- thinking globally, and he has re- son may be the fact that the US, in peatedly proved it. But many he Ukrainian Week the last seven or eight years, espe- times he was criticized for not lik- spoke to an American histo- cially under Obama, tried to move ing foreign policy: he would much rian of Ukrainian descent, away from Iraq and Afghanistan. rather focus on domestic policy in- TRutgers University Professor This was a major goal. Whether stead, but something gets in his Alexander Motyl about Washing- these wars were just or not, in any way over and over again. ton's policy towards Kyiv, case, they were not very success- Besides, the crisis in Syria con- Ukraine's image, and the percep- ful. So, again, there is a kind of a tinues. A year ago, he told Presi- tion of Ukrainian politicians in the contradiction: on the one hand, dent Assad of serious consequences US. you are retreating, while on the in case chemical weapons are used. other hand, you are being told that Assad used them, with no conse- U.W.: President Obama's Admin- istration keeps receiving strong pleas from the Congress to help Ukraine, but his policy remains rather undetermined. Why is that? – I would not like to defend Barack Obama here, but, being a president who had nothing to do with Ukraine for the past seven years, that is, before the Maidan, I would say that in fact he did a lot during this past year. Obama agreed to sanctions, and it is him and the US who keep putting pressure on the EU to enhance them as well. Overall, the US policy towards Kyiv is quite bold. Provided that he (Barack Obama. – Ed.) was never interested in Ukraine at all, the fact that he is paying a lot of attention to it today is rather positive. Of course, the negative side is that Kyiv is still waiting for the arms supplies that have been already discussed rather positively by just about everyone, including politicians in the Senate and the House of Representatives and advisers on different levels, from ju- nior ones to top analysts. The pressure to start the supplies is tremendous, but the president is somehow hesitant. So, going back to your question: why? This may have two different reasons. One is the "reset" of relations with Russia at the beginning of Obama's presidency. This was his initiative, to a large extent, because under Bush, the relations deteriorated. Obviously, andriy lomakin by photo 32|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 US & Ukraine|Neighbours quences. Obama was once bitten Kyiv will remain important, giving BIO tism that unites Ukrainian and there, so he is being twice shy here. rise to the Ukrainian political Alexander J. Mo- Russian speakers, ethnic Ukraini- I think, however, that despite all agenda that will be more or less tyl is an American ans, Russians, Jews, and so on. So, doubts and drawbacks, the pres- independent of the Russian one historian of Ukrai- the overall image of Ukraine has sure of the US policymakers is so for as long as Russia remains a nian descent, po- changed for the better quite radi- strong today, and Putin's insolence problem. Of course, it would be litical scientist, cally. Of course, there are a few is so obvious (his aggression, impe- better for Russia to become nor- writer, artist, and voices here and there, mostly from rialism and readiness to huge prov- mal, but this is unlikely to happen researcher of im- the left or from the far right, that ocations not only against Ukraine, in the near future. perialism and na- sound negative. It is the same in but also against the Baltic States, tionalism. He was Europe, but the mainstream per- Poland, and Belarus) that Obama U.W.: To what extent is the policy born in 1953 in ception is good. As for the politi- is now in a sort of a deadlock. He of the Obama Administration af- New York, and cians, their image has also has nowhere to maneuver, and I fected by the fear of a nuclear studied painting changed. The attitude towards believe that sooner or later he will strike from Russia? and history at Co- Yushchenko during his last years agree. Ukraine is already getting – First of all, I believe that Pu- lumbia Univer- in office was very negative, and it non-lethal weapons. This is an im- tin is bluffing. Since the time when sity. Today, he is a was even worse towards Yanu- portant step. Besides, the training Americans dropped two bombs on Professor of Polit- kovych, but Yatsenyuk and Po- of the Ukrainian military by Ameri- Hiroshima and Nagasaki, there ical Science at roshenko are perceived relatively can instructors will resume. That has been no such cases, even Rutgers Univer- positively. Of course, the question is, the way is being cleared. The US though there have been all sorts of sity (USA) and remains as to whether they are is not letting Ukraine down. So, occasions. Various "bandit" coun- the Director of real reformers, but at least so far Obama is slowly moving in the tries had nuclear weapons, and the Central and they have not done anything right direction, and the only logical their leaders threatened to use East European wrong. step for him to make eventually is them, but no one dared. There- Studies Program. to start supplying weapons. fore, I think, Putin just wants to Mr. Motyl is the U.W.: Is Ukraine doing enough? show how strong he is, and how author of Impe- – Not quite. Ukrainian diplo- U.W.: Has President Obama de- powerful Russia is, and that they rial Ends: The De- mats in Europe and the United veloped an agenda for Ukraine are not afraid of anything. Sec- cay, Collapse and States could have done better. over the past year? ondly, the very fact that he is mak- Revival of Em- This is pretty basic stuff: to have – Almost so. Ukraine as such, ing such statements (even if we pires (2001), Rev- informal weekly meetings with from the perspective of its size and think that he would not use nu- olutions, Nations, journalists; to give large press geopolitical importance, is of no clear weapons) is a proof that this Empires: Concep- conferences monthly. Had this special significance to the US, it person is not quite reasonable and tual Limits and been done in Tel Aviv, New York, does not play any exclusive role, would go to any length. And this is Theoretical Possi- Chicago, Paris, and Brussels on a neither economic, nor political. Of certainly frightening, because Eu- bilities (1999), weekly basis, it would have had a course, if it becomes strong, the ropeans and Americans, for all and Dilemmas of tremendous impact on journalists situation might change. However, their flaws, are rather reasonable. Independence: and analysts. This is another op- Ukraine is strategically important Ukraine After To- portunity to influence the dis- to the United States and Europe U.W.: Does Ukraine present itself talitarianism course. Ukraine, among other (to the US primarily). When Rus- properly in the US? Are Ukrainian (1993) things, could much better use the sia became a strategic problem, or politicians perceived more seri- Diaspora potential, not only in the at least a challenge, Ukraine sud- ously today? sense of providing funds for medi- denly gained weight. By the way, – There are a few aspects to cines (this is already being done). this trend could be observed dur- this. The perception of Ukraine In the Diaspora, there are a lot of ing the last 25 years. During the has changed radically. You have to people in high positions who are times when Washington and Mos- remember that the so-called willing to help, and they are look- cow had normal relations, the US "Ukraine fatigue" lasted from were relatively indifferent towards 2007 (or 2008) to 2013, when When Russia became a Ukraine. Some kind of funding both politicians, analysts and the was provided for the civil society, general public were no longer in- strategic problem, but no one was particularly inter- terested in it. I know this from or at least a challenge, ested. But when the confrontation personal experience. At that time, with Russia escalated, Kyiv en- writing an article on Ukraine was Ukraine suddenly joyed increased attention. In this easy, but it was very hard to pub- gained weight way, Ukraine is important to the lish it in a serious magazine. Now, US as a kind of a counterweight to it's the opposite. Back then, ing for such opportunities. This is Russia and as a buffer zone. When Ukraine was seen as thuggish, cor- the so-called human capital, and Russia is a problem, Ukraine is rupt and good for nothing. Maidan Kyiv could use it in different ways, important. Since in the last year has changed things. Of course, by incorporating it into the work Moscow has not only become a certain skepticism remains. It is of embassies and consulates or by problem, but has also breached all still corrupt, but will it remain so? establishing closer ties between agreements and is ready to blow Will the reforms be implemented? the media in Ukraine and the peo- up the entire post-war security ar- These are the questions. Ukraini- ple here. All of the above could im- chitecture and start a war, the at- ans have shown that they are will- prove Ukraine's political chances titude of Americans towards Rus- ing to fight for their country, and and its image, as well as the dis- sia and, at the same time, towards this is very positive. It turned out course prevailing here with re- Ukraine is changing. I think that that there is this spirit of patrio- spect to Ukraine. № 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|33 Neighbours|Opinion Will Europe Get Angry Soon Enough?

olitical conflicts, especially among white mament) because it feeds into the poisonous my- Author: people, have no military solution. From the thology which the Kremlin feeds the Russian peo- Edward end of the cold war untile arlier this year, ple. Russia was encircled by a treacherous West; Lucas, P that was the dogma of Europe’s political es- now it is besieged by a hostile one. That justifies UK tablishment. harsh measures against spies and traitors at home, Not any more. The naïveté and arrogance of the and the economic pain that confrontation with past two decades is giving way hurriedly to some- the West brings. thing akin to panic. Germany, for example, for Russia’s secondary target is Western public opin- long a notorious military laggard, is changing its ion, which still greatly prizes fair-mindedness posture. It is bringing 100 tanks out of storage and over truth. The less people know about Russia, the tweaking its defence more willing they are to plans. Ukrainians might Ukrainians might ask why excuse the Kremlin’s ask why there is clearly behaviour as a justified a military solution to there is clearly a military reaction to Western the defence of Germany, solution to the defence broken promises. yet politicians such as The practical effects have Angela Merkel insist of Germany, more advantages than that a military response yet politicians such as disadvantages. Even if to the invasion of Sweden and Finland do Ukraine would be point- Angela Merkel insist that start moving towards less. a military response NATO, it will have little Ireland, which has no practical effect on re- airforce, is worriedly to the invasion of Ukraine gional security (behind awakening to its depen- would be pointless the scenes, both coun- dence on the ageing tries have deep and grow- warplanes of Britain’s ing ties with the Alliance RAF to intercept the anyway). But it will allow Russian bombers that buzz its airspace. Rus- Russian propagandists to claim that NATO is sia does not seem to care that Ireland is not a marching ever closer to Russia’s borders. member of NATO – any more than it has refrained Similarly, the West’s token efforts towards boost- from bullying non-NATO Sweden and Finland. ing its military plans and presence in the Baltic re- Those two countries, together with their Nordic gion are no serious impediment to the Kremlin’s partners Denmark, Iceland and Norway, have is- military plans. Russia can match anything the sued an unprecedented joint declaration, decrying West does on the symbolic front (just imagine Russia’s war games, military build-up and danger- what panic a nuclear-weapons drill would create). ous aviation stunts. That prompted a rebuke from And it is ahead in terms of deployable military the Russian foreign ministry. Russia is offended muscle too. when people do not take it seriously. It is even One Western response to this is to treat Russia’s more offended when they do. behaviour as a mental health problem. Allay Rus- The politics behind this are fascinating. Many sia’s paranoia with soothing, transparent actions. Westerners still cannot understand why Russia is On no account take any military steps that could provoking peaceable (some would say malleable) be misinterpreted. That was the Alliance’s ap- countries into stiffening their defence posture. proach for 25 years. It didn’t work then, in com- Surely the rational approach for the Kremlin paratively benign conditions. It won’t work now. would be to dandle the neutral countries and pun- Not only is it useless; it is harmful: the Kremlin ish the hawkish ones? That would be an effective reads it as a sign of weakness. divide-and-rule strategy. The hard truth is that Europe won’t pay for or risk Like so many outside interpretations of Russian the defences it needs. That won’t change until we thinking, this misses the point. Russia likes West- are a lot more scared or angry than we are now. ern rearmament (or more accurately, talk of rear- Which may be too late. 34|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 Greece|neighbours Desperate Times A Greek gets no gifts in Moscow

t has been five years since a Greek prime minister last vis- No conte Imports Exports ited Moscow in search of a from: to: Ihandout. On that occasion, Greek trade, USD bn EU Dmitry Medvedev, then Russia’s president, bluntly told George Pa- Russia pandreou to go to the Interna- 60 tional Monetary Fund for help (which he did). Before setting out from Athens on April 8th, Alexis 50 Tsipras swore that he would not be asking Vladimir Putin, the cur- 40 rent president, for cash, even though his country’s finances are in a more parlous state now than 30 they were in 2010. In the end, the two leaders’ meeting produced little beyond a 20 warm atmosphere and pledges to “restart and revive” relations. 10 Mr. Tsipras welcomed a pro- posed Russian gas pipeline across Greece’s territory and 0 criticised European Union sanc- 2005 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 tions, as he has before. Mr. Putin pledged (not entirely credibly) to Source: IMF; Hellenic Stati ical Authority refrain from using relations with Greece to divide the EU. To observers in Athens, Mr. shipped gas across the Black Sea administration. Chinese firms Tsipras’s trip to Moscow was the and through the Balkans to cen- are also interested. Cosco, a Chi- most striking example to date of tral Europe. South Stream was nese shipping giant, already con- the gesture politics that the abandoned last year following trols a container terminal at Pi- Greek government, led by the EU pressure on Bulgaria. Now raeus, Greece’s largest port, and far-left Syriza party, has used to Greece has an opportunity to is transporting goods from it by keep its approval ratings high as special train to central Europe. unemployment edges back up, Mr. Tsipras’s trip may soothe banks freeze lending and Greece Greece has an opportunity his party’s hard-left faction, slips back into recession. It came to join Turkish Stream which includes former Commu- as both Greeks and Russians nist Party members who are crit- were celebrating Holy Week which would cross ical of new bail-out talks with the ahead of Orthodox Easter, a mo- western Turkey before EU and the IMF. But his government when religious and cultural ment’s priority is to reach a deal affinities resonate. They will be passing through Greece, with creditors to unlock EUR 7.2 officially strengthened in 2016 Macedonia, Serbia and billion (USD 7.8 billion) of loans with a year-long cycle of festivi- and avoid default. Greece man- ties promoted by Russian and Hungary aged to scrape together its EUR Greek cultural organisations. join Turkish Stream, its succes- 458m repayment to the IMF on For Mr. Putin, rapproche- sor, which would cross western April 9th, but another EUR 950m ment with Greece is mostly about Turkey before passing through comes due in May. For the sec- gas. “Nothing has really changed Greece, Macedonia, Serbia and ond month in a row the finance since the mid-2000s,” says a for- Hungary. ministry is scrambling for cash mer Greek energy minister, re- Russian state-owned trans- to pay pensions and salaries. It is calling the Russian leader’s port companies want to acquire raiding unspent EU funds, to the pledge to turn Greece into a nat- the Greek state railway and the dismay of Greek firms working ural-gas hub if it signed up to the © 2015 The northern port of Thessaloniki as on motorway projects they fear South Stream pipeline project Economist a package deal. But their pro- could soon be stalled. Amid the then being touted by Russia’s Newspaper posal was rejected by Taiped, the funding crunch, Mr. Tsipras’s state-owned energy giant, Gaz- Limited. All Greek agency for privatising dreams of Russian investment prom. That pipeline would have rights reserved state assets, during the previous will quickly fade. № 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|35 Security|War The Feat of the Donbas Battalion New proofs or Russia’s war aggression in Ukraine Author: placed while the rank-and-file were Yaroslav Tynchenko asked to renew their oath of loyalty to Ukraine. n March 18, 2015, the Se- On May 23, 2014, during a bat- curity Bureau of Ukraine tle in the village of Karlivka, just (SBU) revealed a small outside Donetsk, five of the boys in Ofragment of a video with Donbas were killed. After this, the captured Russian tank drivers and battalion was returned to Kyiv and paratroopers as evidence of the ag- made part of the National Guard of gression of the Russian Federa- Ukraine. Within a few days, the in- flux of volunteers had increased its tion’s Armed Forces in Ukraine. On this photo These clips were just a small part of numbers to several hundred fight- taken by tles took place at the Ilovaisk rail- an archive of 30 photographs and 8 ers. By June 30, the first Donbas Zanoza, Donbas way station and depot, where the videos by fighters from the Donbas rotation once again moved to the battalion defense was being held by Kherson Battalion nicknamed Lex, Zanoza conflict zone. Within days, they fighters and Myrotvorets, along with units and Nimets, who had shot the evi- had liberated Mykolayivka and are having from Donbas and Dnipro-1. dence and managed to preserve it Kostiantynivka, once a major in- a peaceful Suddenly, while the men were while captive. dustrial town. The battalion next conversation fighting in Ilovaisk, Russian regu- Both from Kyiv, Lex and Za- established a base in Artemivsk with Russian lar forces began to cross the border noza joined the Donbas Battalion and shortly newly-formed units ar- war prisoners near the village of Kuteinykove on in the village of on the same day, at the beginning rived from Novo Petrivtsi. Chervonosilske August 24, Independence Day. Ini- of May 2014, although they only The end of July was the most on August 29, tially, these were units from the got to know each other at the Dru- successful period for Donbas: on 2014, amidst 98th Airborne Paratrooper Divi- zhba kolhosp where the battalion July 21, Pisky was liberated and the heavy shelling sion, then the 31st Paratrooper As- was organized. Lex is an older guy road to Donetsk International Air- from the DNR sault Division, the 6th Tank Divi- from a military family who has port opened. On July 22, it was Po- militants sion and other brigades came too. loved shooting, hiking and hunting pasna’s turn and on the 24th, Ly- For a long time, Ukrainian all his life. As he watched the news sychansk's, a major oil terminal command did not suspect that from the East get worse and worse, where Donbas destroyed a base be- there were large numbers of Rus- he decided to do something to de- longing to the Prizrak militant bat- sian regular soldiers amassing not fend a united Ukraine. Since he talion. In August, the tide turned. far from Ilovaisk and so they con- had never served in the army and tinued the operation to encircle was long past draft age, he decided Encirclement at Ilovaisk Donetsk. The volunteer battalion that the best thing would be to join On August 10, the battle of Ilovaisk back-ups included parts of the 51st, one of the volunteer battalions and began, south of Donetsk. Only on 93rd mechanized, the 17th tank chose Donbas. Zanoza joined the August 18 were the Donbas fighters brigade and a few territorial de- battalion for the same heartfelt able to get out of their position and fense units. The Sector B com- reasons. entrench themselves in a local mander, Gen. Khomchak, even On May 15, 2014, the Donbas school. In Ilovaisk, they slowly got moved his headquarters to the vil- Battalion entered active duty, de- reinforcements from other special lage of Mnohopillia, south of spite the fact that it included a few battalions under the Ministry of In- Ilovaisk, in order to be able to con- dozen volunteers that were poorly ternal Affairs—Dnipro-1, Kherson, trol the operation at the edge of the armed. Their first objective was to Svitiaz, Myrotvorets [Peace- frontline. take back the district police station keeper], and Ivano-Frankivsk. (De- Meanwhile, the Russian forces in the town of Velyka Novosilka, spite a lot of PR, none of them were took full advantage of the lack of Donetsk Oblast, from Russian especially big, a few dozen each at surveillance on the part of the proxies. The police chief was re- the most.) And so the biggest bat- Ukrainians: within two days they 36|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 War|Security its turret pointed at the second KamAZ with wounded soldiers. Tur veered the truck sharply to cut it off. Red, the soldier sitting with his RPG-7 on the roof of the fire truck expected to be first to shoot at the tank. But his gun misfired and the tank was able to shoot first. The fire truck crew led by Tur was destroyed and all six men killed. Meanwhile, buses and cars with were leaving Chervonosilske with the Donbas ambulance. Rus- sian soldiers who happened to be there were completely nonplussed. Four of them, two tank drivers and two paratroopers, were taken pris- oner. Their T-72 tank stood close by and was also taken by the Don- bas fighters, but the third member of the crew managed to disable the tank and flee. Donbas scouts quickly moved to the other side of the village, where they discovered more T-72 tanks, a few CFVs with paratroopers, and one APC. Three Donbas fighters— Usach, Brest and Buhor—were making their way along a traverse and decided to hunt down this equipment. The crew of one of the had set up several base camps, ar- machinegun fire. The Battalion tanks was next to their vehicle hav- ranged gun batteries, positions for Commander Filin, who had stayed tanks, machinegun nests, and other with the troops instead of the firing points in forested areas and wounded Semen Semenchenko, Russian tanks were firing fields. When the Ukrainian task slipped into Chervonosilske behind at cars with white flags force or our 93nd brigade attempted the 93rd brigade. Meanwhile, Rus- to move in the direction of Mno- sian tanks were firing at cars with and red crosses as though hopillia during the night of August white flags and red crosses as in a shooting gallery 27-28, it found itself shot at from all though in a shooting gallery. One sides by artillery and mortars. of the first Russian shells hit the ing a meal. They were eliminated van of an ambulance. The next one with machinegun fire. Another Rus- Green corridor or hit a KamAZ carrying the wounded. sian crew jumped into their vehicle ambush? From the other vehicle, the but were unable to get it going be- In the morning on August 29, the Donbas fighters opened machine- fore Usach shot it up with his RPG. battalions withdrew from Ilovaisk gun fire at the various Russian po- The vehicle went up in flames and and regrouped in Mnohopillia to- sitions where the paratroopers the crew just as quickly jumped out. gether with various units of the were entrenched. Later, witnesses A few seconds later, the stores blew Ukrainian Armed Forces. The testified that they saw pools of up: the turret flew off a few meters fighters were told that there had blood and large amounts of used and the body of the tank exploded. been an agreement between Ukrai- bandaging materials. The remaining four T-72s fled from nian and Russian command to al- Chervonosilske and were cruising low our troops to withdraw Donbas in action nearby. On the outskirts of the vil- through a “green corridor.” The The Donbas battalion was left with lage, the Ukrainians captured a ser- fighting units were divided into two one CFV from the 93rd brigade and viceable Russian paratrooper recon- columns and were supposed to a fire truck from Ilovaisk. On the naissance vehicle that Brest quickly move along their designated paths. outskirts of Chervonosilske, a Utios drove to where the Donbas battal- Dnipro-1 and other small battal- gun crew was destroyed, leaving at ion stood. There were some ions were to leave behind the 51st least three dead. Documents found wounded Russian soldiers, includ- task force brigade while Donbas near the bodies indicated that ing one badly burned tank crew was to follow the units of the 93rd these were servicemen from the member. They joined the other four mechanized brigade. 31st paratrooper assault brigade. prisoners. Enemy command waited until In the fire truck cab was Tur, Zanoza used his cell phone to all the armored vehicles had moved the commander of the first rotation video the two T-72s: one captured forward and began to cut down ci- of Donbas. Outside Chervonosil- and the other destroyed. Then, to- vilian vehicles with infantry with ske, a tank suddenly jumped out, gether with Lex and Nimets, they an intense round of artillery and moving towards the fire truck with interrogated four Russian soldiers, № 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|37 Security|War capturing everything on video. Za- noza tried to post the materials online, but the connection in Chervo- nosilske was only good where everything had been shot up and so he was unable to post it to any site. All through the day and eve- ning of August 29, there was more crossfire and more attempts were made to negotiate with the Rus- sian military. During the last talks, they agreed that the Donbas men would remove the dead from the Mnohopillia-Chervonosilske high- way. But the minute one of the Ukrainians entered the field, he was killed by a bullet. Neverthe- less, a few soldiers directed by a nurse’s aide called Alina were able to carry the wounded to the village on their own. Towards nightfall, the Russians Russian T-72 Once their weapons had been re- Life after Motorola requested that the Ukrainians tank hit by moved, the soldiers were taken Once the men were brought to the Usach near hand over their 300s, meaning the village of through the fields towards Ku- premises of the former Donetsk their wounded. It was agreed that Chervonosilske teinykove. A Russian infantry vehi- SBU office, Zanoza handed the they would take them and the on August 29, cle was in the lead. When it got flash card with the recordings to wounded Donbas men for medical 2014. Photo closer to a nest, it would fire a green Lex. Initially, he hid the card in a treatment. Two Russian KamAZs from Zanoza’s flare. In response, two or three simi- dead electrical outlet, but then he drove up, but they only took their archive lar flares would be sent up. All the sewed it into a seam on his cloth- own men... Russian vehicles were marked with ing. And that’s how it survived the white circles and white flags, and all many months of captivity. Interest- Surrender at the soldiers had white bands on ingly, the militants who were Chervonosilske their arms or their shoulders. guarding the prisoners in this The Donbas battalion was com- The men saw large numbers of building refused to believe that pletely surrounded at this point. vehicles in all the fields and en- Donbas fighters had captured Rus- They counted up their losses and trenchments, most of them cov- sian soldiers. To the end, they were KIAs alone were over 40. Feeling ered with camo nets. But as they certain that the entire Ilovaisk op- pretty pessimistic, the servicemen moved through one field, the Don- eration was carried out by men like from various units still in Chervo- bas men counted 27 NONAs, self- them. nosilske were planning to surren- propelled artillery pieces used by On January 31, 2015, Lex was der at this point. But the Donbas airborne units, set up in checker- finally released. With the agree- fighters were promised by phone board formation. ment of Zanoza and Nimets, he that reinforcements would arrive The prisoners kept marching handed the video and photo files before night time. Then suddenly around 7 kilometers. The seriously over to the SBU, on condition that the people they were communicat- wounded had been placed in the they would publish them only after ing with stopped taking their calls. KamAZ, while those who with minor the remaining Donbas prisoners In the morning on August 30, injuries got to walk alongside. That were free again and that the video the men were still hoping rein- night they slept in some plantations would be presented with commen- forcements would arrive. But at and had watermelon for supper and tary by Lex and Zanoza. They noon, the shelling of the village be- for breakfast. During the night of wanted to make it very clear that gan. More men were killed. At this August 30-31, two more Donbas their side had treated Russian pris- point, the Donbas and Armed fighters died of their wounds. oners completely humanely, Forces men decided it was time to On August 31, the KamAZ with whereas the militants had abused surrender. Most of the destroyed or the wounded and Ukrainian Armed their Ukrainian prisoners. The buried their mobile phones, docu- Forces soldiers were taken away by SBU held to the first condition, but ments and valuables. Zanoza also the Russians and, as was later dis- for some reason “forgot” to comply destroyed his mobile but buried his covered, handed over to the Ukrai- with the second one. Nevertheless, flash card deeply in one of his nian side. Some of the surviving these men remain alive and healthy pockets. members of the battalions went to this day and their invaluable tes- The “capitulation” at Chervo- along with the servicemen. The re- timony about Russia’s military ag- nosilske was accepted by some Rus- mainder were handed over to the gression was saved. Finally, it is sian lieutenant paratrooper. Alto- group of DNR militants headed by gradually being released. gether, more than 100 Donbas Motorola, who had shown up with Unfortunately, one member of fighters and 250 Armed Forces ser- trucks and vans. All the prisoners this brave Donbas group, Yevhen vicemen surrendered. In addition, were carefully searched. Later, they “Usach” Telniov, died in action there were 40-50 wounded men, were frisked equally thoroughly near Mariupol on February 15, mostly from the Donbas battalion. three or four more times. 2015. 38|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 security|belarus army Muscle Flexing in the North What challenges is the army of Belarus preparing for?

Author: n Soviet years, the Belarusian states. After the USSR’s western population in Belarus and the Yaroslav Military District had a special grouping had been terminated neighboring countries (see Arse- Tynchenko status. A landlocked territory, and the state had collapsed, Be- nals compared). Ithe Belarus SSR's airspace was larus inherited possibly one of the Under the Tashkent Treaty, carefully guarded from all sides by largest tank arsenals of all the the stock of weapons in various the neighboring groups of air de- post-soviet states. states was being annually in- fence forces, while the republic it- The weaponry on its territory spected by international experts. self hosted the largest contingent came under regulation of the At the end of each year an update of tank forces in the Soviet Union. Treaty on Conventional Armed on these arsenals was released in It was a mighty iron fist, the Forces in Europe (1990) and the The Military Balance publication. second tank echelon of the poten- Tashkent Treaty (1992). Owing to However, it does not quite reflect tial soviet offensive planned back these pivotal agreements the arse- all the nuances regarding the stor- in the 1940s and 1950s, which was nal of conventional arms on the age of combat machinery in all the to reach as far as the Atlantic territory of Belarus has been sig- different countries. In Ukraine, shores. In 1990 there were seven nificantly reduced. However, upon Belarus and Russia the majority of Belarus tank divisions, one artillery and the insistence of the Russian Fed- it is kept at the so-called Bases for inherited a lot of Soviet three motorized divisions sta- eration it remained much larger Storage of Armament and Ma- military tioned on the territory of Belarus. than can be deemed adequate for chinery (BSAM). These facilities equipment The Soviet Union had 28 tank di- the country. This becomes clear if dramatically differ from country which it keeps visions overall, most of which one is to compare the amount of to country. BSAMs in Ukraine battle worthy were located in the Warsaw Pact weaponry relative to the size of generally represent massive stor-

40|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 belarus army|security ages of rusting shells of gutted and larus varies by source. Russian- derelict vehicles. While things language online sources provide Arsenals compared aren't nearly as dismal in the Rus- considerably smaller numbers, sian BSAMs, experts nevertheless compared to The Military Balance. estimate that 50% of the stored As far as the Belarussian media is machines are out of order, the cul- concerned, the semi-official ana- prits being unfavorable climate (a lytical outlet called Belarussian BELARUS 9.5 mn POLAND 38.5 mn lot of the machinery is kept out- Army provides figures from 2007 doors), vast territories and short- that approximately match the age of personnel. quotas set in 1990-1992. The main 2,263 1,800 2,850 1,730 Belarus does not have the types of weapons possessed by the problem with large distances: all of Republic of Belarus are the same 2,776 2,600 3,377 2,150 the bases are conveniently located. that make the core of the Russian The climate is more favorable than arsenal: tanks T-72 and T-80, in Russia, and as far as care is con- BTR-80 APCs etc. 1,396 1,615 2,300 1,610 cerned, the Belarus Armed Forces The Armed Forces of Belarus are a prime example of how mili- also boast rather large military 82 80 29 130 tary machinery should be stored. aviation, which, unlike the Ukrai- All of it is combat-worthy. nian counterpart, is in combat- Currently there are 62,000 ready condition. The number of servicemen in the Armed Forces of military aircraft both according to the Republic of Belarus (including Russian-language and English- RUSSIA (we of Urals) 14,000 of “civilian employees”). language sources is 128. For some 143.5 mn The trained reserve makes an- reason the same sources provide other 350,000. This does not in- conflicting data on the number of clude very considerable Interior attack helicopters: 22, according and KGB special forces. to the Russians, while the English- 10,333 Unlike the Ukrainian one, the language sources provide the 6,400 Belarus military doctrine clearly more realistic figure of 70. specifies likely enemies: Poland Great emphasis is made on 16,589 and the NATO member states. ideology in the army of Belarus. 11,480 Thus the Land Forces are subdi- The head of state and the Armed vided into Western (against Po- Forces Commander-in-chief land) and North-Western (against Aliaksandr Lukashenka ever since 7,719 6,415 Lithuania) operative commands. he took office has repeatedly On paper the Land Forces of stated that his country is at the Belarus are relatively small in forefront of ideological battle with 1,035 890 numbers: only three motorized the West. And preserving the KGB and one artillery brigade. At the and the position of political com- same time the five Bases for Stor- missars in the army was a logical age of Armament and Machinery step well in-line with the position remaining on the territory of Be- of the Belarussian leader. These larus can be turned into five tank days, however, political commis- UKRAINE 45.5 mn divisions in the event of war. sars have been renamed "Deputy In addition to combat machin- Commanders for Ideological ery the Republic of Belarus pre- Work". served a modest, yet potentially The gist of this "ideological 6,475 4,080 powerful military-industrial com- work" follows from the worldview plex first and foremost geared to- of Lukashenka, who believes that wards tank equipment. The Belar- peaceful co-existence with Russia, 7,153 5,050 ussian constructors developed the regardless of its current political domestically produced multi- form, is the only historically cor- 3,392 channel sighting system Sosna-U rect path for the Belarussian peo- 4,040 for T-72 tanks, which are said to ple. Everything else, including the perform well fighting against the national liberation movement Ukrainian Armed Forces in the along with its red stripe over white 285 330 Donbas. Interestingly, the Armed flag is frowned upon and ulti- Balance Military The Source: Forces of Belarus also have a cen- mately persecuted. The activity of Population as of 2013 tre for development and employ- the Belarusian People's Republic ment of unmanned aerial vehicles. and its political figures, as well as Tanks Meanwhile in Ukraine, in spite of any pacts with Poland or Lithua- Combat vehicles the year-long war, in which drones nia are considered collabora- of diﬀerent types Available as of 1990 are extensively used, UAVs are tionism. While it is not officially Artillery sy ems, still the domain of volunteers and prohibited to publish books on caliber 100mm enthusiasts. these topics in Belarus, their cir- and above The data on actual numbers of culation is miniscule. Even the Helicopters Quota under Tashkent Treaty weaponry on the territory of Be- studies on Belarusians in the Na- № 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|41 security|belarus army

Belarus’ military Lida Polotsk Zaslonovo 116th Assault 37th Equipment Preservation 19th Equipment Preservation and Maintenance Base potential Aviation Base and Maintenance Base 337th and 825th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiments Grodno Vitebsk We ern Command Headquarters 103rd Separate Mobile Fanipol 6th Separate Mechanized Brigade Guards Brigade 15th Anti-Aircraft 557th Engineer Regiment Missile Brigade 74th Separate Signal Regiment 62nd Separate Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade Minsk 1 Missile Regiment 120th Separate Mechanized Borysov Brigade Machulyshchi North-We ern Command 50th Mixed Headquarters Aviation Base 740th Anti-Aircraft Defense Pruzhany Navahrudak Missile Brigade 181 Attack 255th Separate Maryina Horka 7th Engineer Regiment Helicopter Base Radioele ronic 5th Separate 60th Separate Signal Regiment Special Force Regiment Brigade 34th Equipment Preservation and Maintenance Base

Slutsk 56th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade

Slobudka 1199th Mixed Artillery Regiment Osypovychi 502nd Anti-Tank Artillery Regiment

Bre Baranovichi 38th Guards Armored Brigade 28th Equipment Preservation 111th Artillery Brigade Slonim and Maintenance Base 50th Equipment Preservation 11th Separate 61 Assault Aviation Base Borovka and Maintenance Base Mechanized 120th Anti-Aircraft Missile 231 Mixed Artillery Brigade 115th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment Brigade Brigade 427th Rocket Artillery Regiment poleon's army (which is undoubt- itary faculties of civil education Knowledge of native language ap- edly collaborationism, according establishments, as well as military pears to be deemed unnecessary. to the official ideology) get pub- schools of the Russian Federation. Higher military education can also lished with circulation of just 122 It has to be noted that the Belaru- be acquired in the Military Acad- (!) copies. sian graduates of Russian special- emy of Belarus or the countless Due to ideological obstacles, ized military schools boast far Russian academies. Belarus is practically lacking de- higher level of training than the The top brass of the Belaru- cent national television and cin- ones graduating the military facul- sian army is represented predomi- ema. The population is completely ties of state universities in Be- nantly by hereditary servicemen. reliant on Russian TV and films, larus. Some of the specialties can Until recently a good portion of often drenched in Soviet nostalgia, be acquired exclusively in the Rus- them had Ukrainian surnames. mostly about the World War II. sian establishments. For instance, The previous military minister, for While Aliaksandr Lukashenka special operation forces (they instance, was Lieutenant General publicly mocked Viktor Yanu- make 10% of the country's Armed Yuriy Zhadobin, originally from kovych after the latter became Forces) predominantly consist of Dnipropetrovsk. On November 25, president (Lukashenka even said officers, who graduated the Ry- 2014 he was dismissed to reserve that he understands the reasons, azan Higher Airborne Command due to old age to be replaced by which brought about the 2014 School or the Special Intelligence Major General Andrei Ravkov events at Maidan), make no mis- faculty of the Novosibirsk school (1967). Looking at the profiles of take about it, the Belarussian mili- in Russia. As the future Belarusian the military leadership in Repub- tary elite is undoubtedly on Rus- students apply for position in the lic of Belarus one can spot a cou- sia's side. military schools of the Russian ple of remarkable trends that The Republic of Belarus army Federation they have to pass man- could be very useful for the Ukrai- officers are prepared in seven mil- datory Russian-language exams. nian Armed Forces: 42|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 belarus army|security • leading positions are occu- analyst Aliaksandr Alieksin pub- Yet even if so, the president of pied predominantly by officers lished his article titled "Belarusian Belarus doesn't stand a chance to aged under 50; army to be retrained for hybrid mount adequate response to the • there are very few generals. warfare". The article alleges that "green men", especially relying on All four Deputy Ministers are the president and the military the special operation forces men- Major Generals. Three of them are leadership of Belarus are aware of tioned by Alieksin. These forces ethnic Russians and only one Be- the role and the importance of the (6,000 personnel: two para- larusian. The leadership of the Russian subversive reconnais- trooper brigades, one SWAT bri- Airborne Forces and the Air De- sance groups in the Donbas war. gade, and a few units made exclu- fence consists of three Major Gen- In addition, the author gives his sively of ensigns and officers) are erals and four Colonels. The Com- analysis of the strategy and the completely ingrained with Soviet mander is Russian, the other two tactics employed by the Russian and Russian ideology. Same can Generals being a Belarusian and a forces during the fighting in be said about the units of KGB and Ukrainian. In general, there are Ukraine, citing highly placed offi- the Interior Ministry of Belarus many ethnic Russians occupying cials of the Russian Federation (data on personnel numbers is not key positions in the Armed Forces military, as well as the NATO. The available). of the Republic of Belarus. author quotes Aliaksandr Lukash- Another significant indicator At present Aliaksandr Lukash- enka's speech during the February is the reaction of the Belarusian enka prefers to present himself 19 meeting with the Armed Forces pro-government military analysts and his country as a neutral party command. The head of state con- to the Moscow's statement from as regards to the military conflict demned the "colour revolutions", March 10, 2015 regarding Rus- in Donbas. However, in reality the but at the same noted that 'at- sia's withdrawal from the Treaty Armed Forces of Belarus are ac- tempts continue to openly dictate on Conventional Armed Forces in tively preparing for "various de- conditions for trade and economic velopments", all in close coopera- cooperation. There is an increase tion with and under the leadership of military activity in direct prox- Lukashenka continues his of the Russian General Staff. And imity of our borders'. Although attempts at preserving this was to be expected, since Be- this statement can be interpreted larus is in defence union with the in more ways than one, Alieksin military and political Russian Federation. believes that it is directed primar- independence of Belarus. In Russia March 17 saw the be- ily at Russia. The author sums up: ginning of strategic command and 'the polite "green men" as it turns But his current army will staff training with the involvement out are causing concerns not only not be sufficient to protect of the Western Military District, air- among Russia's potential enemies borne troops, aviation and the but its current allies as well. They it in the event of war North Fleet. These military exer- too began looking for possible cises are taking place with participa- countermeasures. In such a situa- Europe. While Aliaksandr Lu- tion of the operative group of offi- tion Belarus can make use of the kashenka is yet to state the official cers of the Belarusian General Staff. already existing special operation position of his country in this re- Possible enemies have been forces, provided those are re- gard, analysts state that Belarus is newly defined at the beginning of equipped with the necessary about to be engulfed in the strug- 2014. Below is a quote from the weapons and military machinery.' gle between the NATO and Rus- article published on the news and Alieksin's article has been re- sia. They forecast the arrival of analysis website called Belarusian published by many internet out- additional Russian S-30 anti-air- Army on February 17, 2014: lets of the country, including the craft missile systems as well as “There are pogroms in "Belarusian Army". This may at- Su-27 fighter planes to the terri- Ukraine. The country is on the test to the fact that his under- tory of Belarus. brink of collapse, while its mili- standing of Lukashenka's state- Peaceful coexistence enjoyed tants are seeking to breach into ment is correct. The latter in- by most of the European conti- Belarus to destabilize our repub- structed his defence ministry to nent over the last 25 years is a lic, apparently, in order to get ex- develop the new military doc- thing of the past. The fact that tra pay. The Polish ruling elite is trine in the shortest time possi- some of the Belarusian official in- openly speaking about denounc- ble. Interestingly, the name of ternet sources republished Aliak- ing the agreement on post-war the author has disappeared from sandr Alieksin's article asserts to borders, which means they are under Aliaksandr Alieksin's re- Belarus de-facto recognizing the readying for returning ‘Kresy published articles, and Alieksin Russian aggression against Wschodnie’ [Eastern Border- himself was detained by the KGB Ukraine. And although Aliaksandr lands]… In a moment like this the and accused of "cooperating with Lukashenka continues his at- army and the people must be foreign intelligence". Two weeks tempts at preserving the military united, so that any aggressor later he was released on his own and political independence of his would know full well – the re- recognizance. Based on the country, when push comes to sponse will be considerable and above one can reach the conclu- shove the available Armed Forces well-organized”. sion that in the recent months will not be sufficient to protect Naturally, there is opposition, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, faced said independence. They are a which doesn't subscribe to this with the Russian "hybrid war" clone of the Russian army, and train of thought. For example, on threat, began seeking ways to therefore are fine-tuned to follow March 4, 2015 the noted military reconcile with the opposition. orders from the Kremlin. № 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|43 Society|Political preferences Left Turn for Ukraine Political swing towards the left is almost inevitable in Ukrainian society. Which political force will make the most of it?

he left movement in Ukraine Author: became unnecessary. The end of the Khrushchev Thaw arrived and has a dramatic history, from Ihor Losiev war saw the resumption of total po- made room for the Sixtiers move- attempts to conceive the litical, ethnic and cultural homoge- ment prompted by Khrushchev's TUkrainian version of socialism nization, which, among others, took anti-Stalin speech at the 20th Con- and communism to degeneration of the form of punitive resolutions is- gress of the Communist Party of the the local communists into a provin- sued against any manifestations of Soviet Union. The liberalization in cial version of the official Russian national sentiments. In 1946 the the Ukrainian SSR was encouraged left, a mere local cell of the Soviet Central Committee of the Bolshevik by the Ukrainocentric CPU leader Communist Party. Communist Party of Ukraine issued Petro Shelest. He naively believed The period of 1917-1922 na- the resolution "On distortion and that it was possible to build a national revolution provided Ukrai- flaws in "Essay on the History of tional socialist state within the So- nian social democrats with an op- Ukrainian Literature", followed by viet Union. The whole thing came to portunity to try and implement the resolution "On magazines "Per- an abrupt end with Shelest being re- their own vision of social and na- ets" and "Vitchyzna" ["Pepper" and moved from position and members tional liberation, while local com- "Fatherland" accordingly], and later of intelligencia being arrested left munists got a chance to construct "On repertory of dramatic and other and right. This was another on- their own forms of national com- theaters of Ukraine". As a personal slaught on Ukrainian culture and munism, which the Moscow communists were forced to tolerate for a while. The failure of UNR, the Ukrainian People's Republic, and other independent national states brought back to life the age-old mighty Russian centralism, this time under the pretext of "proletar- ian unity". The communist Moscow needed to melt all the different ethnic, cultural and political identities in the large Russian/Soviet pot. Yet Russian communist project's weak ideological influence outside Russia called for a time-out. The official name for it was the policy for kore- nizatsiya, the "indigenization of cadres", which in reality was an at- tempt to integrate the Russian Communist Party (Bolsheviks) into all areas of life on non-Russian territories of the USSR. In Ukraine this policy was called "Ukrainization". For a little while (until the 1932- 1933 Holodomor) its frameworks Petro initiative of the then CPU leader La- the beginning of another round of Symonenko, allowed the existence of the remain- the leader of zar Kahanovych came the resolu- cleansing within the Communist ing Ukrainian social democrats and the Communist tion "On political errors and unsat- Party of Ukraine, which continued national communists. In Western Party of isfactory work of the Institute of throughout the Brezhnev-Shcher- Ukraine national communism sur- Ukraine, speaks History of the Academy of Sciences bitskiy era, during which Ukraine vived for longer, predominantly to his voters of the Ukrainian SSR". In 1951 they was ultimately brought in-line with within the Communist Party of sporting a USD began to harass composer Kon- the rest of the USSR. Western Ukraine. Then, the late 99,000 watch stiantyn Danekvych for "wrong ac- Up until the Perestroika the 1930s saw the triumphant march of and a USD cents" in his opera Bohdan Khmel- Communist Party of Ukraine Soviet homogenization, which 50,000 belt nytskyi. Poet Volodymyr Sosiura wouldn't dare to even engage in any steamrolled over the fresh graves faced similar treatment. The repres- under-the-table struggles. It re- through the territory of famine-dev- sive machine was gaining force, and mained fully content with its status astated Ukraine. During World War it seemed like the repetition of 1937 of a regular regional cell within the II Moscow again appeased the na- was inevitable… hierarchy of the Communist Party tional communist moods in Ukraine The death of Joseph Stalin of the Soviet Union, as all the effort for a little longer, but after 1945 it pulled the plug on the process. went into the infighting for career 44|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 Political preferences|Society promotions, be it a coveted transfer "proletariat" is more of a "bour- the current government the left- to Moscow, or something else of the geois" and "philistine" part of the ward swing of public moods is all kind. The CPU entered the Pere- population, with little or no interest but imminent. The real question is stroika as a stale and outdated orga- to high-brow communist ideals, but which political force will make the nization incapable of anything but rather preoccupied with own every- most of it. fiercely resisting the change it day mercantile interests. On top of The Ukrainian authorities in feared so much. All of its active and that, the social and economic focus power have already demonstrated socially mobile members began to in the West is shifting from manu- their support of oligarchs, tolerance flee the crumbling structure. What facture towards provision of ser- towards machinations in the bank- remained was the bullheaded no- vices, while employees tend to see ing system, withdrawal of funds menclature, which, however, man- not the left-wing parties, but trade overseas and black market specula- aged to exploit the Soviet nostalgia unions as the protectors of their in- tions using government bailout re- of mostly elderly citizens for de- terests. sources. Ukrainians witnessed the cades, as well as to employ the Tsar- So the western left are looking government's connivance in rela- ist and Communist tactics for Rus- for a different social base for their tion to systemic corruption serving sification of Ukraine. Pro-Russian policy: not hired workers, but the as the unchanging backdrop to the- moods in the Ukrainian East and more marginal groups in western atrics akin to live on air arrest of two South would become electoral societies: migrants (predominantly "most corrupt" officials (little stronghold of CPU for years to from Asian and African countries), known colonels from the State come. And throughout the existence sexual, religious and ethnic minori- Emergency Service) during the gov- of independent Ukraine Petro Sy- ties. Their main concerns are with ernment meeting, and suspiciously monenko's Communist Party of the issues like the limits to sexual tolerant attitude towards Kremlin's Ukraine has been a consistent flag- liberalism, abortion, human rights, fifth column. All of the above cre- ship of Russian policy and propa- soft drugs, relationships with Is- ates favorable environment for a ganda complete with unprece- lamist communities etc. leftist movement. dented levels of populism. Paradox- Ukraine, however, does need Russian spin doctors are no ically, it never seemed to be protection of employees (who are doubt have their hand on the pulse constrained by the communistical working in wild capitalism and de- and will likely cater to the Ukrainian dogmas, such as rejection of private facto absence of effective trade public by coming up with another property (Ukrainian Communist unions). Therefore it requires clas- political project, but, perhaps, this Party leaders accumulated it with sic left-wing parties, social demo- time the left-wing party will be pro- gusto!), atheism (CPU was hell-bent crats and socialists. The commu- to look after the "canonical" Mos- nists have shot themselves in the Ukrainians need a truly cow Orthodox Church), the rights of foot forever blemishing their repu- the working class (communists of- tation by all but open servitude to patriotic left movement ten collaborated with "capitalist the Kremlin. that would steer sharks" and oligarchs) and so forth. The traditional curse of the The final nails into the coffin of Ukrainian left-wing circa-1990 and the country off the path CPU's reputation came with its co- -2000 is their pathological orienta- of wild capitalism operation with the Party of Regions tion towards Russia and contempt and the support of separatism in towards Ukrainian values. They Ukrainian (in rhetoric only). It will Eastern and Southern Ukraine. As have no interest in problems of the surely be devoid of CPU's back- Lenin himself aptly put it: “nobody Ukrainian culture, language, history wardness, full of young, modern will be able to discredit commu- or identity. They tend to believe that and flexible populists proficient in nists, unless they discredit them- all of it is a fantasy dreamed up by a Ukrainian language, who will quote selves”. The CPU's fight against handful of nationalistic intellectu- Ukrainian writers lamenting the Ukraine's unity brings us to another als. Their stance is much like the people's struggles and calling for dictum: you reap what you saw – one of the 1990s Donbas miner, elimination of oligarchs. But the the loss of Crimea and a part of the who wrote in a letter to Gorbachev leading roles will be reserved to the Donbas dramatically reduced the that he'd gladly switch to Ukrainian "canned goods", the figures re- communists' electoral base. language, if only that could increase cruited back in the Soviet times, the amount of sausage available to who have been waiting for their mo- Demand for alternative him. Gorbachev gladly recited such ment. And the moment is about to The crisis of communist movement "gems" presenting them as the "wis- arrive. The prospects of such a party in Ukraine coincided with the crisis dom" of the common folk. But in are bolstered by the fact that the of this movement in the West: the reality the common folk are not general public's dissatisfaction with Soviet Union collapsed taking with nearly as indifferent to the prob- the government's actions (as well as it dozens of USSR-funded commu- lems of the Ukrainian culture, as the the perceived "lack" of thereof), ac- nist parties of the western world. Ukrainian left seem to believe. tivates in the society the demand for They had to leave their carefree har- Lastly, they only see Ukraine's fu- social justice in the most radical bor of unshakable tenets and guar- ture in some sort of union with Rus- forms. anteed state funding behind and sia, but the bloodshed of 2014-2015 The nation, however, is in need enter the open seas of politics, in clearly demonstrated the kind of of truly pro-Ukrainian and truly which the classic Marxist version of "ally" Russia is. popular left movement that would 19th-early 20th century proletariat Currently Ukraine's left flank is steer country off the path of wild with nothing to lose but shackles no essentially vacant. With the quasi- capitalism bringing the era of oli- longer existed. Instead the current liberal and quasi-reformist policy of garchy in Ukraine to a close. № 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|45 history|Propaganda Cossacks or Kozaks, No Russians We The history of the territory that runs from the eastern borders of modern Ukraine to the Caspian Sea with branches running to the Caucasus foothills belies Moscow’s persistent myths about its historically Russian nature In fact, the peremptory inclusion of Don, Volga, Yaik and Terek cossacks in “Russkiy Mir” is based on a simple need to deny irrefutable evidence to the contrary. The steppe of the cossack nation The territory on which the Don, Volga, Yaik and Terek cossack hosts formed during the 16th century was very distant from Muscovy, even if all Moscow’s territorial acquisitions at that point are taken into account. Cossack communities arose, not in the borderlands as was the case in Ukraine, but along the edges of the steppe frontier in places that were hard to access, naturally well-protected, and completely cut off from the band of territory settled by Christians by an immense steppe no-man’s land. At first, the nearest Muscovite settlements were over "The cossacks 500 kilometers away. The nearest Author: come from the Russian historical works treat these territories were therefore not those Viktor Brekhunenko Russians. D'you cossack communities as “specific, controlled by Moscow, but the know that?" unique social elements of Russian Turkish Azov, the Astrakhan Khan- hen the Kremlin’s mod- "And I tell you, society.” ate and the nomadic Nogai—territo- ern-day ideologists talk the cossacks That this stereotype has been ries that not only had never at that about “eternal Russia,” come from the well and truly entrenched in the con- point been under Muscovy but were they include in its terri- cossacks." sciousness of ordinary Russians was not yet even the focus of its expan- W M. Sholokhov, tory ancient cossack lands along the "The Quiet Don," in part due to the monarchist ten- sionist visions. Don, Volga, Yaik (today, Ural) and shot from the dencies that were common among At that time, Moscow had nei- Terek rivers, and consider the Don, 1957 film of the the cossacks through the 19th and ther the human resources nor the Volga, Yaik and Terek cossacks same name. early 20th centuries. And although means to conquer the steppe on its “Russian.” This attitude simply re- the cult of the Tsar and their own own and to expand beyond the Don flects “traditional” Russian concepts identity were actually separate or Yaik Rivers, or to the Caucasus about the past of these cossack en- things, the many pro-monarchist foothills. This means that the no- claves—although, in fact, the roots of declarations made by the cossacks man’s steppes that eventually be- this “tradition” go back only to the during the turbulent revolutionary came cossack territories were only early 19th century, the time when years of 1905-7 and 1917-1918 gradually and sparsely settled, Russia definitively formulated its seemed to reinforce the concept that which meant that the formation of “historical” arguments to justify its this community was Russian, heart cossack communities was com- imperial appetite. Since then, the ca- and soul. What’s more, the active pletely different than the kozaks in nonic Russian historical narrative participation of that element in Rus- Ukraine. has treated the cossack hosts along sia that likes to call itself “cossack” in The Zaporizhzhian kozak host the Don, Volga, Yaik and Terek riv- the current Russo-Ukrainian war emerged along Ukraine’s border re- ers as an integral component of Rus- has contributed considerably to the gions and its clear advantage was sia’s own past. To this day, most revival of such notions today. the inclusion of men representing 46|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 Propaganda|history Ukrainian civilization among the sharply felt their difference from all begun by the mid 16th century, it did free fighters. What’s more, free their neighbors—even from Mus- so very slowly. The biggest obstacle fighting quickly became a presti- covy. Continuing openness to a vari- to Muscovy’s territorial appetites gious activity for princes and no- ety of migrant flows from neighbor- was the cossacks themselves. bles, some of whom directly joined ing lands cemented this multiethnic kozak ranks. In short, the kozak identity, which killed any prospects Barriers to Moscow’s movement in Ukraine emerged as for Moscow to transform the still expansion an integral component of Ukrainian unpeopled lands they roamed into The Don, Volga, Yaik, Terek and society, although many kozaks were properly Muscovite ones. Nor did Hrebinka cossacks did not consider of mixed Ukrainian, Tatar, Lithua- tight ties between the cossacks and themselves Russian. They thought nian and Polish lineage. From the the borderlands of Muscovy offer of themselves as cossacks and their start, they saw themselves as a part any better prospects. world as in opposition to Muscovy. of the Ukrainian world and were In the 16th century, the emer- Cossacks were not the same as seen as such both within Ukrainian gence of the Don, Volga, Yaik, Terek “Russian people,” among many of society and well beyond its borders. and Hrebinka cossack hosts estab- whom these might include their The nobles among kozaks eventu- lished a kind of “kozak belt” from parents and siblings. The separation ally made the first claims to a spe- the Dnipro to the Ural River, with a was particularly obvious when cos- cial social status for kozaks, which strip running down to the Caucasus sacks chronicled the visits of Mus- would bring these hosts nearer to foothills. This was the beginning of covites to their territories. Those the nobility, and, in time, were de- a profound transformation of the Muscovites who had no intention of termined to take on all the functions steppe borderlands of Europe as joining cossack ranks were always of a Ukrainian elite. By contrast, both a high-conflict zone and the referred to as “Russian people” such a development proved impos- place where East and West met. In- rather than being distinguished ac- sible on the Don and Volga, and deed, cossack dominion over the cording to social status, such as later on the Terek and Yaik rivers. steppe borderland was the optimal merchant or peasant, the way they The Don and Volga regions be- response on the part of the Chris- would have been had the cossacks came the arena for an unusually ac- tian world to the challenges pre- thought of themselves as belonging tive ethnic confluence. People from sented by its Muslim neighbors. to Muscovite society. “There are Muscovy, Ukraine, Crimea, the The geopolitical balance Russian people among us cossacks Nogai, and Kazan, along with Astra- steadily shifted in favor of Christian on the Don, in addition to Tatars khan Tatars, Azovians, and Turks elements under the ever-more-pow- established such a human melting erful influence of the cossacks, Cossack communities pot that the genetic code of those which opened enormous prospects cossack communities became ex- for both the Polish Principality and arose, not in nearby tremely colorful, to say the least. Muscovy. Pushing far beyond set- borderlands as in Ukraine, This left an indelible imprint on the tled territories, the Don, Volga, Yaik bearing of all these communities, and Terek cossack enclaves, as well but on the edge of the shaping their self-awareness and as their Zaporizhzhian Sich breth- steppe frontier, completely the way they perceived their neigh- ren, established the frontier of an bors. Moreover, a largely Turkic unpeopled steppe adjacent to the cut off from territory population tended to head out there lands that were tightly controlled by settled with Christians by a from Muscovy’s southern borders the Crimean Tatars, Turks and until the early 17th century. At that Nogais. This significantly eased the wide steppe no-man’s land time, this group was still poorly in- colonization of the steppe for the tegrated into Moscow society and peoples of Ukraine and Muscovy. and Cherkass1,” was how the Don was not the carrier of real Muscovite Meanwhile, the inexorable Otaman Bohdan Konynskiy put it identity from inner regions. There growth in military power of the cos- when questioned in Moscow. was one final factor that played a sacks significantly undermined the Both the Don cossacks and the critical role: the location of these military capabilities of their Muslim other hosts fiercely defended the cossack enclaves deep in the distant neighbors, and gradually shifted the sovereignty of their enclaves. In the steppe borderlands made these scales in favor of Christians. In the cossack mind, the Don, Yaik and hosts unattractive to the elites of end, they proved a major factor in Terek were not part of the “imperial neighboring countries, so their the confrontation between Muscovy homeland,” but completely inde- ranks were filled almost exclusively and Poland over hegemony in East- pendent military and territorial with the lowest of commoners. In ern Europe as well. Without estab- units that happened to have rela- other words, the Don, Volga, Yaik lishing control over the cossack belt, tions with Muscovy, Turkey, Crimea and Terek cossacks were mostly an Moscow would unlikely have ever and other neighbors. Statements amalgam of migrants from the low- expanded to the Black and Azov such as “I rode from Yaik to Mus- est classes of society. Seas, or to the Northern Caucasus. covy,” “from the Don to the imperial Under these circumstances, a Despite the many stereotypes, it homeland,” can be found in num- simple numeric advantage in the was hardly inevitable that the Don, berless cossack writings. An exhor- Christian elements among cossacks Volga, Yaik and Terek cossacks tation from the Volga cossacks to was what led these cossack commu- would become a part of the Musco- the tsar in 1628 states: “We are nities to generally identify as Chris- vite civilization, as Muscovy did not feeding and watering all your Rus- tians. At the same time, the cossack have the strength to suddenly take 1 Meaning Ukrainians sian people on the Volga and are al- from the central Dnipro hosts saw themselves as a unique them over. Even as Moscow incor- Valley, where Cherkasy lowed safe passage to the Muscovite ethno-social community and porated the Pale, a process that had Oblast is located today. state and the cities under your rule.” № 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|47 history|Propaganda In the famed Historical Episodes Cossack territories (1637) on the conquest of the Azov, in the 18th century the Don cossacks described them- Russia Saratov selves thus: “We’re getting away Sloboda Ukraine Left-Bank Uralsk from this Muscovy, with its endless Hetmanate Kyiv Y labor, its serfdom, its boyars, and its aik (Ur Dnipr gentrified bureaucrats.” o al) Indeed, the cossacks not only Ukraine Kazakh ann did not imagine that their enclaves Lower Zaporizhzhian Ho V were part of the Muscovite state, olga Yaik cossacks but they did not consider the enor- Volga mous territories of the Pale part of Don cossacks cossacks it, either. For them, Muscovy began and ended at the outside boundar- Sea of Azov ies of Muscovite cities. In preparing Caspian Sea in 1644 for a group of Don cossacks Black Sea to accompany Moscow’s ambassa- Present-day borders of countries dors, the Don Army wrote a letter to the Tsar explaining its actions very cossacks sacked a small town way it saw other territories it had eloquently: “... so that there would erected by Muscovites in 1640. At subordinated. be no attacks on the ambassadors the symbolic level, all the cossack But when Ivan Grozniy (the along the way, even in Muscovy.” hosts stubbornly refused to under- Terrible) decided to take over the Given all this, it was completely take any actions that would suggest Kazan Khanate, he immediately natural that the Don, Volga, Terek, they were subordinate to Muscovy, came up with an ideological concept Hrebinka and Yaik cossacks were such as kissing the Tsar’s cross. De- declaring that Prince Riurik had completely indifferent to internal spite all its efforts, Moscow was un- once conquered this territory. In happenings in Muscovy, which was able to wrench such oaths from any time, this opportunistic concept was in sharp contrast to the ambitions of of these forces until after 1670. Kiss- expanded to the point where Kazan Ukraine’s kozak hosts. Unlike ing the cross ended up being a was simply declared Russian land. Ukrainian kozaks, for whom the strictly individual procedure on the Before advancing on Astrakhan, the competition for a dream place part of those cossacks who were em- Astrakhan Khanate was presented among the Ukrainian elite was ev- barking on some specific service to as the one-time Tmutorokan2 prin- erything , these cossacks had no in- the Tsar, such as the 766 Yaik and cipality, and therefore a lawful terest whatsoever in Moscow soci- Volga cossacks who were hired for homeland of the Muscovite tsars. ety and Moscow events, only notic- the Smolensk War of 1632-34 Yet, these ideological manipulations ing those that directly affected their against Poland. And even so, the were never used to justify the “law- interests, that is, free trade in the cossacks did not always agree to ful” rights of Muscovite tsars to rule frontier territories of Muscovy and such a threatening step. over the Don, Volga, Yaik and Terek booty on the territories of their In order to maintain their sov- cossacks, even as Moscow began to Muslim neighbors. ereignty, the cossacks constantly annex their enclaves. Moscow ex- This attitude was to continue un- appealed to the antiquities, when plained these ambitions by the sim- til the cossacks were forced to up- their ancestors “served the Musco- ple argument that the cossacks had hold the sovereignty of their en- vite lord but did not kiss the cross.” been serving the tsars for centuries. claves. Only in the 18th century did Any attempts on the part of Musco- Until the late 17th century, impe- the leadership of various cossack vite ambassadors to make changes rial documents treated the cossack groups begin to slowly integrate into in the rules for staying in cossack belt as a separate region located be- the imperial world. But the sense of enclaves was seen as a challenge to yond the boundaries of Muscovy. “otherness,” of being different from their sovereignty, and until the late Just like the letters from the cos- Muscovites, and of their lands as not 17th century, all the cossack hosts sacks, such expressions can be found belonging to Moscow never disap- successfully held back Muscovy’s as, “I left the Don for Russia.” There peared, whether on the Don, the expansionist appetites. are even direct statements, such as Yaik, or the Terek. This would even- the Muscovite ambassador in tually become a breeding ground for The image of cossacks Crimea writing to the Crimean Khan the idea of separating from bolshevik in Muscovy in 1629, “And you, too, Zhanibek- Russia in 1918-1920. What is most interesting is that, de- Girei, your imperial majesty, are In fact, the determination to spite all its efforts to “round out” its aware that the Don cossacks on the preserve the sovereignty of the Don, territories with the cossack belt Don live near the Azov [Sea] and not Terek and Yaik Armies had thor- formed along the Don, Volga, Yaik in Muscovy.” That the point was not oughly penetrated the awareness of and Terek rivers, Muscovy did not a matter of diplomatic rhetoric, but those cossacks. Moreover, they un- see these territories as an integral simple awareness among the Mos- derscored the independence of their part of the Muscovite world, or the cow elite that the cossack enclaves enclaves in every way possible to cossacks themselves as Muscovites. were beyond their world was made th make sure Moscow did not chal- 2 Tmutorakan was a me- Until the 19 century, Moscow’s amply clear by the different behavior lenge it. The Don cossacks immedi- diaeval Kievan Rus' prin- elite did not even consider the Pale of Warsaw in the way it treated the cipality and trading town ately destroyed the Tsariov-Borisov that controlled the Cim- adjacent to Muscovy, let alone the Zaporizhzhian Host. Despite the fact merian Bosporus, the fortress built on the upper reaches passage from the Black cossack enclaves, as an historical that, like Moscow diplomats, Polish of their river in 1600, while the Yaik Sea to the Sea of Azov “imperial homeland” in the same diplomats distanced themselves 48|the ukrainian week|№ 4 (86) April 2015 Propaganda|history from marine and terrestrial attacks the Crimean or Turkish problem. In 1735, Petersburg formed the Ky- carried out by Ukraine’s kozaks, they This gave Moscow a free hand, an zliar Army out of similar forced set- never saw this territory as outside unexpected bounty that it brilliantly tlers at the newly-founded Kyzliar their state. took advantage of. fortress at the mouth of the Terek River. In 1771, Volga cossacks were The Warsaw card A creeping conquest resettled to the Northern Caucasus. How did it happen, then, that de- By the mid 16th century, the Mos- Needless to say, these new forces all spite all their devotion the sover- cow tsars had begun bit-by-bit to differed radically by their very nature eignty of their enclaves, the Don, entrench themselves as the benefac- and historic role from the original Volga, Yaik and Terek cossacks tors of the cossacks. Initially, they cossack hosts. soon found themselves under Mus- enticed them with regular pay and Nevertheless, the Don-Yaik- covy’s influence and eventually al- military service. Eventually, they Terek cossack belt remained a zone lowed themselves to be absorbed? began to impose their own officers of instability and anti-Russian up- The launching point was the partic- on the Don and Yaik forces and to risings for a long time. From time to ular worldview of people at the force them to show fealty to the tsar. time, real wars against the empire time: the way the world was struc- At the same time, their ideological would break out, such as one led by tured logically peaked in the person machine worked tirelessly to per- Kondratiy Bulavin in 1707-09 and of a legitimate ruler. And so, the suade the cossacks that they were another under Yemelian Pugachov cossacks felt the need for a patron- “by nature our own Russian people in 1773-75. The Mazepins led by Py- monarch from the very beginning, of the orthodox faith.” Having more lyp Orlyk also counted on the re- when their hosts had not even con- than once been caught in a resis- vival of lost independence to attract solidated as proto-state military ter- tance and even armed insurrec- latter-day cossacks when they be- ritorial entities. But in their imagi- tions, Moscow stubbornly drove its gan to nurture plans for a broad nations, this ruler was supposed to line. And in the late 17th century, anti-Russian coalition. be more of a protector-benefactor, psychologically broken by the fail- By the end of the 18th century, who reliably paid them, rewarded ure of an uprising under Stepan Ra- little was left of sovereign cossack them well for various military and zin, the cossacks finally succumbed, communities. In its place, the cult of other services, yet never interfered one by one bowing their heads to service to the tsar became en- in their internal affairs and had no kiss the tsar’s cross. After this, Mos- trenched in the cossack armies, pro- ambitions to challenge the sover- cow began to deliberately erode the viding a legitimate basis for special eignty of their enclaves. self-sufficiency of their enclaves. status within the Russian Empire. In their search for such a patron, The breaking point in this impe- Based on the deeply imprinted his- it was significant that the cossacks rial attack on the sovereignty of the torical image of the tsar as effectively never limited themselves to the Mos- cossacks came in 1721, when they cow tsar, who was the nearest Chris- were transferred into the command tian ruler. Even after the tsar man- of the Military Collegium and were Located deep in the distant aged to persuade them to serve, the subject to irregular compulsory ser- steppe border and Polish king continued to offer an at- vice for 25-30 years. Meanwhile, St. tractive alternative. For instance, the Petersburg took on the tactic of unappealing to the elites of Don, Volga, Yaik and Terek cossack arming itself by establishing com- neighboring countries, the hosts were actively involved in the pletely subordinated units of serv- civil war that shook Muscovy in ing cossacks, a practice that had ranks of these cossack 1604-18. They sent ambassadors to been thoroughly tested in Siberia. enclaves were mostly filled the False Dmitri and some battalions Since the end of the 16th century, fought on the side of Sigismund III. willing volunteers had been re- with the lowest of Even after Mikhail Romanov was cruited into the cossack units at commoners elected tsar, thanks to the presence various forts, forming the Siberian of cossacks at the Zemsky Sobor in Army, which became the Siberian their only historical ruler and protec- 1613, the cossacks continued to turn Line Cossack Army in the 19th cen- tor among the cossacks, this cult be- their eyes to Warsaw. In 1616-18, one tury, and the Transbaikal Army es- came the foundation for monar- fifth of the Don Army, that is 1,000 tablished in 1639, which split off as chism among the cossacks. How- men, fought among the forces of the Amur Cossack forces in 1858. ever, by reliably binding the cossacks King Wladyslaw. Indeed, many even At the European steppe border- to the Russian umbilicus, the tsar kissed his cross. In 1632, when the lands, St. Petersburg used this ap- also solidified the basis for maintain- Don region was expecting an attack proach on the belt of “classical” cos- ing their feelings of differentness and by imperial forces, the cossacks sack enclaves, establishing “counter isolation from Russians, and thus threatened Moscow that they would enclaves” in the form of cossack failed to turn the Don-Yaik-Terek “abandon the Don and go serve the communities that cultivated identity cossack belt into truly Russian land. Polish king.” and self-sufficiency while being ab- Even in the 20th century, both cos- But the Polish Principality solutely loyally serving cossack hosts. sack monarchism and an unflagging shortsightedly ignored the pros- In the service of its military interests, desire for self-sufficiency in their pects that were opening before it, in 1723, St. Petersburg resettled communities drove the cossacks to should the Don, Volga Yaik and 1,000 Don cossack families to the go against the tide on more than one Terek cossacks be drawn into its or- Northern Caucasus, forming the occasion. And this casts a long bit. Warsaw did not see this issue Agrakhan Army. In 1732, minor cos- shadow over Moscow’s endless man- from the point-of-view of a confron- sack forces were merged into the tra about the Russian essence of the tation with Moscow, nor as part of Caucasus (Terek) line cossack army. cossack world. № 4 (86) April 2015|the ukrainian week|49 CULTURE & ARTS|calendar of events April 15-28, 6 p.m. April 17-18, 7 p.m. April 17-18 Landscape Borders and Distances. ATO Jazz Love Songs Triptych Art Gallery Loft 31 Cinema House (13, vul. Desiatynna, Kyiv) (31, vul. Nyzhnioyurkivska, Kyiv) (6, vul. Saksahanskoho, Kyiv)

The gallery will host a collection of Loft 31 art studio is about to host pre- Ukraine’s top jazz musicians will paintings of the recent years by Anatoliy mier shows of Borders and Distances and present a new selection of jazz tunes Kryvolap, one of Ukraine’s best-known ATO documentary performances. The about love, some of the world’s most ro- modern artists. The show is titled Land- first show is a joint multimedia project mantic jazz hits. Amazing improvisations scape as the painter enjoys the reputa- created by the Document film festival, and new interpretations of well-known tion of a living classic of Ukrainian non- Post theatre, Teatr.doc and Rimini Proto- jazz standards will be a pleasant surprise figurative landscape painting. Bold use of koll. It is based on comprehending and to the most savvy music lovers. The show bright and neon colors is considered to perception of national borders and cul- will feature vocalist Ruslan Yehorov, saxo- be one of his trademark techniques. Mr. tural distance, different worldviews, indi- phone soloist and founder of Skhid-Side Kryvolap is known both in Ukraine and viduals and religious barriers. The second jazz band Dmytro Aleksandrov, talented far beyond it. His works are in museum performance is the creation of the Mey- drummer Pavlo Halytstkyi and many collections in Austria, France, Germany, erhold Theatre Center. It is a documen- more jazz performers. Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Israel, Poland, tary evidence of a young psychologist of Spain, Switzerland, USA and Canada. the terror of war he personally experi- enced.

April 19, 12 p.m. April 25, 8 p.m. May 11, 7 p.m. Retro Cruise festival Vyshyvanka Party by Oleh Pikkardiyska Tertsia Fomin Botanical Garden Skrypka and Le Grand Machinebuilders’ Art Palace (1, vul. S. Petliury, Kyiv) Orchestra (166, vul. Robocha, Bochka art pub Dnipropetrovsk) An unusual retro festival, organizers (22, vul. Verkhniy Val, Kyiv) claim, is a feast of good traditions, the Ukraine’s most well-known a capello culture of live interaction and communi- Oleh Skrypka, the leader of Vopli Vi- sextet will visit Dnipropetrovsk as part of cation, and of good manners. This year’s dopliasova folk rock band, and Le Grand its pan-Ukrainian tour to present its good festival will bring together the lovers of Orchestra, his new world music project, old compositions as well as new songs. the 20th century style and fashion, collec- will present their interpretation of well- After the busy 2014 and a number of con- tors of retro cars, jazz bands, Charleston known and rare Ukrainian folk songs. The certs all over Ukraine and abroad, the and boogie-woogie dancers, as well as orchestra features musicians from vari- singers keep touring. In over 20 years in anyone who likes all other aspects of the ous folk music bands and some from the music, the Lviv-based sextet not only past. The guests will enjoy endless enter- Ukrainian Army Orchestra. The perform- gained huge popularity and a big audi- tainments, including a retro bicycle pa- ers use the music to reveal the unique el- ence of devoted fans, but has set a high rade, a market of vintage clothes, work- ements and richness of Ukrainian culture. standard of a capello performance and shops and a “five o’clock tea” party. The product of these experiments is the interpretation of Ukrainian music. mesmerizing sound of folk melodies combined with elements of rumba, waltz and jazz.

50|the ukrainian week|№ 3 (85) March 2015 April 17-18

May 11, 7 p.m.