Strongman Geopolitics
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The Latent Characteristics That Structure Autocratic Rule
The Latent Characteristics That Structure Autocratic Rule Joseph Wright∗ November 4, 2019 Abstract Research on autocratic regimes in comparative politics and international relations often uses categorical typologies of autocratic regimes to distinguish among different forms of autocracy. This paper introduces historical data on dozens of features of dictatorships to estimate latent dimensions of autocratic rule. We identify three time-varying dimensions of autocracy that correspond to ideal types proposed in the literature: party dominance, military rule, and perso- nalism. We show that dimensions of autocratic rule are orthogonal to commonly-used measures of democracy-autocracy, and compare these dimensions to existing typologies of autocracies, showing that time-varying information on personalism is unique. We discuss a measurement model of personalism and illustrate the time-varying features of this measure in applied research on conflict initiation and regime collapse. 8864 words including text, references, footnotes, and figure titles and descriptions (not including the Abstract, Author Note, or Online Appendix). ∗Pennsylvania State University. [email protected]. This research is funded by the Minerva Rese- arch Initiative (ONR #N000141211004). The author thanks Jos Bartman, Jos´e Cheibub, Michael Coppedge, Rob Franzese, Fabrice Lehoucq, Michael Miller, Bumba Mukerjee, Phil Schrodt, Daniel Stegmueller, Milan Svo- lik, and participants at the University of Illinois Comparative Politics Workshop (2/2014), an APSA panel (9/2014), the \Political Institutions and the Behavior of States in the International System" (4/2015) conference at Yale, and the Lansing B. Lee, Jr. Seminar in Global Politics at the University of Virginia (9/2015) for helpful feed- back. The data introduced in this paper was collected by Barbara Geddes and her team at UCLA; this pro- ject and resulting research was supported by the National Science Foundation (BCS-0904478 and BCS-0904463). -
President for Life, and Then Some - Nytimes.Com Page 1 of 2
Letter from Africa - President for Life, and Then Some - NYTimes.com Page 1 of 2 • Reprints This copy is for your personal, noncommercial use only. You can order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers here or use the "Reprints" tool that appears next to any article. Visit www.nytreprints.com for samples and additional information. Order a reprint of this article now. May 11, 2010 President for Life, and Then Some By HOWARD W. FRENCH In the months before his death in 1993 at the age of 88 (or, as widely rumored, as old as 100) and after 33 years in power, the president of Ivory Coast, Félix Houphouët-Boigny, fondly repeated a formula he had once announced publicly to the nation. “A king of the Baoulé has no right to know the identity of his successor,” he is reported to have said. Mr. Houphouët-Boigny may have belonged to royal lineage, but critics said he seemed to be forgetting that the Baoulé were only one of Ivory Coast’s 50 or so ethnic groups, and that he was the president of a would-be modern country. Few were fooled about the old leader’s real intention to rule as president for life, come what may in his aftermath. And the aftermath in Ivory Coast has indeed been grim. West Africa’s most prosperous country has been ripped apart by a civil war whose roots trace directly back to the contested circumstances of his succession, and the old regime has been replaced by a predatory authoritarianism under new leaders determined to hang on at all costs. -
To Download Senator Rubio's Speech Transcript
Remarks as Delivered to the Ronald Reagan Institute on April 30, 2019 By Senator Marco Rubio Thank you very much. Thank you, Fred, for inviting me, for introducing me, that’s very kind. I want to thank John Heubusch, Roger Zakheim, Rachel Hoff, and your colleagues at the Institute for giving me this opportunity and for organizing this event to mark the 35th anniversary of that speech, which you just saw a snippet of a moment ago. I wanted to spend today with you doing 3 things. The first, I wanted to talk about the historic significance of that speech, not just to U.S.- China relations, but to the cause of freedom and liberty around the world. Then I wanted to turn to the complex and challenging relationship today between China in the 21st century and our country. And third, some of the difficult choices we face with regards to that relationship. Let’s talk first about the speech. Some of you here today probably don’t remember that speech very well in 1984. I would have been in 8th grade. Actually, April 1984, I would have been in 7th grade. I remember that year only because it was Dan Marino’s second year and the Dolphins were a football team. But we’re coming back. Many people who work for me weren’t even born in 1984. But it was a part, as you said, of that historic six-day visit, and it was directed at the Chinese people. And the speech was typical Reagan. It overflowed with hope and optimism. -
Will Xi Jinping Succeed?
1 Will Xi Jinping Succeed? William H. Overholt I want to offer you a way of understanding China and a very different way of viewing its current leadership. China is the latecomer of a group of Asian miracle economies. It faces a turning point shared by all the Asian miracles, a crisis of success. These crises of success are caused by complexity. Economic success creates a highly differentiated society. The extraordinary complexity of a modern economy can’t be managed from the offices of the top leaders. Likewise, the social complexity requires different political management. The crisis of success A crisis of success is a moment in development of a successful business or a country where continued success requires organizational transformation. Think of an entrepreneur who invents a cool widget and the business takes off, managed as the entourage of that one successful inventor. Soon the point comes where a simple business becomes complicated. It needs to list 1 2 on the stock exchange. It needs professional accounting and professional human resources management. It needs a board of directors and a public rule book. It requires an organizational transformation, and its future success or failure depends on successful transformation. Call it an Elon Musk moment. Xi Jinping’s job is to manage China’s Elon Musk moment. These crises of success share certain characteristics. Like South Korea and Taiwan in the 1980s China finds itself overleveraged, threatened by debt, bubbles, inflation and bankruptcies. The big companies find themselves indebted and unprofitable. Politics also grows more complex, with rising demonstrations and powerful interest groups demanding control over policies. -
Everyday Life
Everyday Life The North Korean people live under a strict communist regime. They have no say in how their country is managed. The central government controls nearly every aspect of life in the country. Most jobs don’t have salaries. Food and clothing are mostly provided by the government. People who do have a job with a paycheck earn around $1,500 per year. The majority of North Korean people are very poor. They don’t have things like washing machines, fridges, or even bicycles. Practicing a religion is not allowed as the state sees it as a threat. Instead, children are raised to worship Kim Il Sung, “the President for life”. There are over 34,000 statues of Kim Il Sung in North Korea, and all wedding ceremonies must take place in front of one. Portraits of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il can be found pretty much everywhere. All citizens must hang these portraits, which are provided by the government. Once a month, the police come over and check whether the portraits are still hanging and properly taken care of. Electricity is very unreliable in the country; most homes only have electricity a few hours per day. When buildings on one side of the street are blacked out, the other side gets electricity. When this situation occurs, there is a mad rush of children who run to their friends’ apartments on the other side. Internet is only available to the elite in North Korea. Even cellphones are extremely rare. Only people who are trusted by the government can buy a cell phone, but they must pay a registration fee of $825. -
Xi Jinping: Personality and Policies Prasanna Aditya a Intern, Chennai Centre for China Studies June 12 2020
Image Courtesy: New York Times Issue Brief III Xi Jinping: Personality and Policies Prasanna Aditya A Intern, Chennai Centre For China Studies June 12 2020 Introduction Disappointed with the rise of „bourgeois elements‟ in society, Chairman Mao Zedong unleashed what he called the „Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution‟ in 1966 which went on to be seared in Chinese collective memory as a period of unspeakable horror. He exhorted the masses to root out the capitalist sympathisers and preserve the revolution. Mao was a towering figure in Chinese politics since the People‟s Republic of China was founded in 1949. Even before the PRC became a sovereign country, the clout that Mao commanded in its territory was enormous. He built his base across the Chinese countryside and was genuinely viewed by his supporters and the masses as a revolutionary figure. The civil war between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), led by Mao and the nationalist Kuomintang was long and exhausting. The Japanese occupation of China in 1937 gave the fighters a cause to shed their differences and unite in defence of a common cause. Once the Japanese were expelled from their land with the end of the Second World War, the Chinese continued their infighting. After a protracted period of struggle, the CCP came out on top and founded the People‟s Republic of China and banished the Kuomintang to an island 140 miles off the coast now known as Taiwan. Since the genesis of the state, its history was intertwined and indistinguishable from that of the Communist Party. Mao, with his undisputed leadership of the party, was its face and his authority over the affairs of the state was supreme and unquestionable. -
Do Executive Term Limits Work
ON THE EVASION OF EXECUTIVE TERM LIMITS TOM GINSBURG ,* JAMES MELTON ** & ZACHARY ELKINS *** ABSTRACT Executive term limits are precommitments through which the polity restricts its ability to retain a popular executive down the road. But in recent years, many presidents around the world have chosen to remain in office even after their initial maximum term in office has expired. They have largely done so by amending the constitution, sometimes by replacing it entirely. The practice of revising higher law for the sake of a particular incumbent raises intriguing issues that touch ultimately on the normative justification for term limits in the first place. This Article reviews the normative debate over term limits and identifies the key claims of proponents and opponents. It introduces the idea of characterizing term limits as a type of default rule executives may overcome if sufficient political support is apparent. It then turns to historical evidence to assess the probability of attempts, both successful and unsuccessful, to evade term limits. It finds that, notwithstanding some high-profile cases, executives observe term limits with remarkable frequency in consolidated democracies. The final Part considers alternative institutional designs that may accomplish some of the goals of term limits, but * Professor of Law, University of Chicago. This Article is an outgrowth of the Wythe Lecture delivered at William & Mary Law School on April 8, 2010. We thank Jose Cheibub, Henry Dietz, Rosalind Dixon, Lee Ann Fennell, David Fontana, Jennifer Gandhi, Guadalupe Gonzalez, Donald Horowitz, Wendy Hunter, Aziz Huq, Brian Kalt, Brian Leiter, Raul Madrid, Anup Malani, Eric Posner, Adam Przeworski, Adam Samaha, Alexei Trochev, Adrian Vermeule, and Kurt Weyland for their comments and suggestions. -
Chinese Politics in the Xi Jingping Era: Reassessing Collective Leadership
CHAPTER 1 Governance Collective Leadership Revisited Th ings don’t have to be or look identical in order to be balanced or equal. ڄ Maya Lin — his book examines how the structure and dynamics of the leadership of Tthe Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have evolved in response to the chal- lenges the party has confronted since the late 1990s. Th is study pays special attention to the issue of leadership se lection and composition, which is a per- petual concern in Chinese politics. Using both quantitative and qualitative analyses, this volume assesses the changing nature of elite recruitment, the generational attributes of the leadership, the checks and balances between competing po liti cal co ali tions or factions, the behavioral patterns and insti- tutional constraints of heavyweight politicians in the collective leadership, and the interplay between elite politics and broad changes in Chinese society. Th is study also links new trends in elite politics to emerging currents within the Chinese intellectual discourse on the tension between strongman politics and collective leadership and its implications for po liti cal reforms. A systematic analy sis of these developments— and some seeming contradictions— will help shed valuable light on how the world’s most populous country will be governed in the remaining years of the Xi Jinping era and beyond. Th is study argues that the survival of the CCP regime in the wake of major po liti cal crises such as the Bo Xilai episode and rampant offi cial cor- ruption is not due to “authoritarian resilience”— the capacity of the Chinese communist system to resist po liti cal and institutional changes—as some foreign China analysts have theorized. -
Caudillo Leadership
TOWARD A MORE HOLISTIC UNDERSTANDING OF CAUDILLO LEADERSHIP Taylor A. Landrie This thesis is submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the Research Honors Program in the Department of Leadership Marietta College Marietta, Ohio April 28, 2013 Toward a More Holistic Understanding of Caudillo Leadership!Landrie 2 Toward a More Holistic Understanding of Caudillo Leadership!Landrie 3 Introduction Thesis Statement The term caudillo is used to describe Latin American leaders with military back- grounds who are charismatic and authoritarian. However, the concept of caudillo lead- ership involves more than a leader with certain traits. Caudillo leadership, as a phe- nomenon, is holistic and occurs only when specific criteria are met by the leader, follow- ers, and the cultural values and norms that shape the environment in which the leader and followers interact. Overview Historians and political scientists have noted the frequency of military dictators in Latin America since the revolutions that liberated much of the continent in the early 1800s. The “Caudillo” is an authoritarian leader with a background in the military who attracts a following through his or her charismatic personality. Frank Tannenbaum de- scribes the caudillo as, “the leader…who governs because he can, not because he was elected” and applies this definition to both democratically elected caudillo leaders and leaders who came to power during a coup d"état or through other forceful means (Tan- nenbaum 497). One assumes a caudillo acts to promote his or her self-interest and holds a position of power through force, both in cases of traditional, dictatorial caudillos and modern, elected caudillos. -
Why Did Beijing Decide to Apply the Security Law to Hong Kong Now? Roie Yellinek
COMMENTARY Why Did Beijing Decide to Apply the Security Law to Hong Kong Now? ROIE YELLINEK Abstract In 1997, after a century in which Britain ruled the Hong Kong, the United King- dom transferred responsibility over the colony into China’s hands. Twenty- three years later, in early July 2020, Beijing passed a security law that expanded China’s powers over Hong Kong, at a dramatic time when China is also involved in bor- der struggles and the global sphere deals with the coronavirus. What led China to make this dramatic move? Chinese leaders have done so because they are capable of doing so and can do so and want to continue to expand China’s sphere of influ- ence. Judging by the words of Zhang Xiaoming, former director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, who said, “The era when the Chinese cared what others thought and looked up to others is in the past, never to return,” events in Hong Kong seem to be indicative of Beijing’s plans for the future development of things. (Photo by Iris Tong, Voice of America Cantonese Service) Figure 1. Hong Kong protests. On 1 July 2020, the first day of the implementation of the Hong Kong version of the National Security Law, tens of thousands of protestors gathered on the streets in Causeway Bay to march. WILD BLUE YONDER 20 JULY 2020 43 Yellinek Introduction In 1997, after a century in which Britain ruled the Hong Kong, the United Kingdom transferred responsibility over the colony into China’s hands. Twenty- three years later, in early July 2020, Beijing passed a security law that expanded China’s powers over Hong Kong citizens and the city’s highly developed econo- my.1 This was in contradiction with agreed upon terms between China and the United Kingdom regarding Hong Kong’s status—an agreement made when China was not yet at its peak like it is these days. -
Dictators Walking the Mogadishu Line: How Men Become Monsters and Monsters Become Men∗
Dictators Walking the Mogadishu Line: How Men Become Monsters and Monsters Become Men∗ Shaun Larcom Mare Sarr Tim Willems June 2016 ∗Shaun Larcom is University Lecturer in the Department of Land Economy at the University of Cam- bridge. His email address is [email protected]. Mare Sarr (corresponding author) is Associate Professor in the School of Economics at the University of Cape Town. His email address is [email protected]. Tim Willems is an external Research Associate with OxCarre. His email address is [email protected]. The authors thank Denis Norman for sharing his experiences on life within the Mugabe-government. They also thank the editor (Andrew Foster), two anonymous referees, Rob Davies, Georgy Egorov, Bernardo Guimaraes, Juniours Marire, Athanasios Orphanides, Chrik Poortman, Ragnar Torvik, Wessel Vermeulen, Sam Wills, Li Yuan, Alex Zimper and audiences at the 7th Oxcarre Conference, the 2014 Political Economy Workshop in Milan, and the Universities of Cape Town, Oxford, Pretoria, Toulouse School of Economics, and the Graduate Institute Geneva for useful comments and discussions. Adeola Oyenubi provided excellent research assistance. 1 Let them hate me, as long as they fear me. Caligula, Roman Emperor from 37 to 41 AD. At some point in the second half of the 20th century, the world was in a state of excitement. The reason was that the white government of an African country had just announced the discharge of a prominent freedom fighter with a history within the South African ANC. After decades of tireless struggle for freedom and majority rule, he was convincingly elected to lead his country. -
Fidel Castro and Revolutionary Masculinity
University of Kentucky UKnowledge Theses and Dissertations--Hispanic Studies Hispanic Studies 2012 Deconstructing an Icon: Fidel Castro and Revolutionary Masculinity Krissie Butler University of Kentucky, [email protected] Right click to open a feedback form in a new tab to let us know how this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Butler, Krissie, "Deconstructing an Icon: Fidel Castro and Revolutionary Masculinity" (2012). Theses and Dissertations--Hispanic Studies. 10. https://uknowledge.uky.edu/hisp_etds/10 This Doctoral Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Hispanic Studies at UKnowledge. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations--Hispanic Studies by an authorized administrator of UKnowledge. For more information, please contact [email protected]. STUDENT AGREEMENT: I represent that my thesis or dissertation and abstract are my original work. Proper attribution has been given to all outside sources. I understand that I am solely responsible for obtaining any needed copyright permissions. I have obtained and attached hereto needed written permission statements(s) from the owner(s) of each third-party copyrighted matter to be included in my work, allowing electronic distribution (if such use is not permitted by the fair use doctrine). I hereby grant to The University of Kentucky and its agents the non-exclusive license to archive and make accessible my work in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter known. I agree that the document mentioned above may be made available immediately for worldwide access unless a preapproved embargo applies. I retain all other ownership rights to the copyright of my work.