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Western Australia Iron Ore Profile October 2019 THE WORLD IRON ORE MARKET Major global iron ore1 suppliers Western Australia is the largest iron ore Western Australia supplier in the world, accounting for 39% Brazil of global supply in 2018. Brazil is the second largest iron ore China supplier in the world, accounting for 19% India of global supply in 2018. Russia China (10%), India (9%) and Russia (5%) 2013 are major global iron ore suppliers, but Ukraine 2018 retain most of their production for South Africa domestic steel manufacturing. Iran China’s iron ore supply fell 2% to 215 million tonnes in 2018, following a Canada small increase in 2017 and three USA successive years of decline between 2014 and 2016. China’s iron ore supply peaked 0Mt 200Mt 400Mt 600Mt 800Mt 1000Mt at 347 million tonnes in 2013. 1 Dry million tonnes. Source: AME, Iron Ore Strategic Studies (Quarterly). Asia iron ore1 demand 2000Mt Asia accounted for 77% of global iron ore demand in 2018, with China (59%), India (7%), Japan (6%) and South Korea (4%) 1500Mt having the largest shares. In 2018, iron ore demand from: • Asia rose 3% to 1,679Mt. 1000Mt • China rose 2% to 1,279Mt. • Japan, South Korea and Taiwan combined fell 0.4% to 227Mt. (a) 500Mt • Rest of Asia rose 18% to 173Mt. AME forecasts Asia’s iron ore demand will rise by 307 million tonnes from 2018 to (a) 0Mt 2039, with growth in the rest of Asia (up 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 459Mt) and Japan, South Korea and Taiwan combined (up 19Mt) offsetting a China Japan, South Korea & Taiwan Rest of Asia(a) decline in China (down 171Mt). 1 Dry million tonnes. (a) India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and other Asian countries. Source: AME, Iron Ore Strategic Studies (Quarterly). Iron ore1 and steel product2 prices (annual average) China’s rapid increase in iron ore demand US$180/t 180 index lifted the iron ore price from US$28 a US$160/t 160 index tonne in 1999-00 to US$173 a tonne in 2007-08. The iron ore price fell to US$52 US$140/t 140 index a tonne in 2015-16 as China’s demand US$120/t 120 index slowed and there was excess supply in the market. US$100/t 100 index In 2018-19, the iron ore price rose 16% to US$80/t 80 index US$81 a tonne, largely due to disruptions US$60/t 60 index in iron ore supply from Brazil and Western Australia. Steel product prices fell 1% in US$40/t 40 index 2018-19. US$20/t 20 index The iron ore price is forecast to be US$74 a tonne in 2019-20 and US$66 a tonne in US$0/t 0 index 2020-21.3 1998-99 2003-04 2008-09 2013-14 2018-19 In September 2019, the iron ore price was Iron ore Steel product index steady at US$93 a tonne and steel 1 China spot price in nominal US dollars, cost and freight (CFR). 2 China steel product price index (2007-08 = 100.0). product prices fell 1%. Source: World Bank, Commodity Markets; CEIC, China Premium Database; and 3 WA Government 2019-20 State Budget. WA Iron Ore Profile – October 2019 1 Western Australia Iron Ore Profile October 2019 WESTERN AUSTRALIA’S COMPETITIVENESS Estimated1 iron ore resources Western Australia has large iron ore 60Bt 120yrs reserves, accounting for 29% of the world’s crude iron ore reserves in 2018.2 50Bt 100yrs Western Australia had an estimated 48 billion tonnes of economic 40Bt 80yrs demonstrated iron ore resource in 2018-19, which could sustain current 30Bt 60yrs production for 53 years. 20Bt 40yrs Western Australia’s reserves had an average iron content of 48% in 2018, 10Bt 20yrs below the world average of 49% and Brazil’s 53%.2 0Bt 0yrs Western Australia’s iron ore production 1998-99 2003-04 2008-09 2013-14 2018-19 had an average iron content of 62% in Economic demonstrated resource (billion tonnes) 2018, above the world average of 60% but 2 Resource life (years of production) below Brazil’s 63%. 1 Based on Western Australia’s share of Australian iron ore production. 2 US Geological Survey. 3 Compound annual growth rate. Western Australia’s iron ore exploration Source: ABS 5204.0 Australian System of National Accounts. rose 10% to $310 million in 2018-19, compared with an annual decline3 of 6% over the past ten years. 1 Total cash cost of seaborne iron ore exports: 2018 Western Australia’s iron ore miners are among the world’s lowest cost seaborne Venezuela US$25.3/t iron ore exporters. Ukraine US$25.5/t The average total cash cost1 of Western Chile US$26.4/t Australia’s iron ore exports was US$31.5 Kazakhstan US$28.5/t a tonne in 2018, below the world average Brazil US$30.6/t of US$31.9 a tonne, although above Western Australia US$31.5/t Venezuela, Ukraine, Chile, Kazakhstan and Brazil. USA US$32.2/t Western Australia’s major iron ore ports South Africa US$32.4/t are close to the largest iron ore markets in Russia US$34.2/t Asia, reducing shipping costs relative to Mauritania US$34.7/t some of its competitors. Canada US$36.0/t According to AME, Western Australia’s India US$38.7/t average iron ore shipping spot rate to US$0/t US$10/t US$20/t US$30/t US$40/t US$50/t North China rose 14% to US$7.6 a tonne 1 Price normalised total cash cost in US dollars, cost and freight (CFR), whereby production costs for different iron ore products are adjusted to a in 2018, well below Brazil’s rate of benchmark product (62% Fe fines) based on price differentials. Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Mine Economics Model. US$18.5 a tonne. Major iron ore export markets Western Australia’s iron ore industry has 700Mt established long-term trade relationships across Asia. 600Mt Over 81% of Western Australia’s iron ore 500Mt exports went to China in 2018-19, with exports down 4% to 661 million tonnes – 400Mt the first annual decline since 1998-99. 300Mt Iron ore exports to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan combined rose 1% to 200Mt 131 million tonnes in 2018-19. Iron ore exports to all other countries1 100Mt rose 29% to 20 million tonnes in 2018-19 0Mt – mainly to Malaysia and Vietnam. 1998-99 2003-04 2008-09 2013-14 2018-19 In 2018, Western Australia accounted for China Japan, South Korea & Taiwan All other countries(a) over half of the iron ore imported by China (63%), Japan (51%) and (a) Included mainly Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong (SAR of China) in 2018-19. 1 Excludes China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. South Korea (69%). Source: ABS 5368.0 International Trade in Goods and Services. WA Iron Ore Profile – October 2019 2 Western Australia Iron Ore Profile October 2019 WESTERN AUSTRALIA’S SUPPLY Iron ore sales volumes Growth in Western Australia’s iron ore 900Mt sales is slowing as China’s demand slows and new mines reach full production. 800Mt In 2018-19, Western Australia’s iron ore 700Mt sales fell 5% to 794 million tonnes, compared with annual average growth1 of 600Mt 10% over the past ten years. 500Mt Western Australia’s iron ore sales fell in 2018-19 largely due to supply disruptions 400Mt caused by Tropical Cyclone Veronica, a train derailment (BHP) and fires at Mt 300Mt Whaleback (BHP) and Cape Lambert A 200Mt (Rio Tinto). Western Australia’s iron ore sales are 100Mt forecast2 to rise to 858 million tonnes by 0Mt 2022-23. 2002-03 2007-08 2012-13 2017-18 2022-23 Western Australia produced mainly iron 1 Compound annual growth rate. ore fines (72%) in 2018, followed by lump Source: WA Department of Mines, Industry Regulation and Safety, Resource Data Files; and 2 WA Government 2019-20 State Budget. (25%) and concentrate (3%). Major iron ore miners’ sales123 Western Australia’s major iron ore miners 350Mt Rio Tinto, BHP and Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) are the largest global iron 300Mt ore producers behind Vale from Brazil. 250Mt Rio Tinto (360Mtpa) and BHP (290Mtpa) are developing new mines by 2021 to 200Mt utilise additional rail and port capacity developed over recent years. 150Mt Rio Tinto’s iron ore sales fell 6% to 324Mt 100Mt in 2018-19 and its sales guidance for 2019 is 320-330Mt.1 50Mt BHP’s iron ore sales fell 1% to 270Mt in 2018-19 and its production guidance for 0Mt 1 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2018-19 2019-20 is 273-286Mt. FMG’s iron ore sales fell 1% to 168Mt in Rio Tinto BHP FMG 2018-19 and its sales guidance for 1 2 3 1 Western Australian operations. Wet tonnes. Inclusive of third party tonnes. 2019-20 is 170-175Mt. Source: Company production reports. Major iron ore export ports Port Hedland is the world’s largest bulk export port, while Cape Lambert and Dampier are also major bulk export ports. Port Hedland Port Hedland (59%) exported most of Western Australia’s iron ore in 2018-19, followed by Cape Lambert (20%), Cape Lambert Dampier (16%) and other ports (4%). Port Hedland’s iron ore exports rose 0.3% to 482Mt in 2018-19.
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