Helping you navigate Libya’s shifting mosaic landscape
Country Forecast:
LIBYA
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COUNTRY FORECAST | LIBYA
Executive Summary & Key Forecasts
● Libyan National Army (LNA) has a reinforced military structure and newly gained territory; Khalifa Haftar positions his troops in the country’s centre in preparation for a Sirte offensive, with eyes set on Tripoli
● Libya Desk anticipates the take over of Sirte by Haftar before Ramadan this May, peacefully entering Tripoli with assistance from two of the four major militias controlling it (pp. 3-4)
● Prince Mohammed bin Zayed hosted talks between Haftar and Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj in Abu Dhabi, - mediated by the UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General (UN SRSG) Ghassan Salamé- where a blueprint for political restructuring in Libya was drawn up, reforming the Presidential Council and reshuffling key cabinet positions (p.3)
● The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) announced that an agreement has been reached between both men to hold elections in Libya in October 2019
● Ghassan Salamé has scheduled a national conference in Ghadames from April 14th to April 16th.
● Major changes expected to take place at the National Oil Corporation (NOC) following allegations of conflict of interest against Mustafa Sanalla. The incoming Chief plans to carry out a full review (p. 4)
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COUNTRY FORECAST | LIBYA
The Current State of Affairs in Libya
Libya is today split between two camps with Khalifa Haftar gradually emerging as the dominant figure in the country, aligned with the regional administration in the East, and opposing the internationally recognised government in the West. The Tripoli based Presidential Council (PC) is fragile and weak, its only assets being international recognition, title and access to state funds.
Key Recent Developments
The PC has been fragmenting for the last 6 months. The most evident divisions being between Deputy Prime Minister Ahmed Maiteeq, who has a business first and last mindset, and Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, who is struggling to maintain political relevance.
Contrastingly, LNA strongman Khalifa Haftar and his forces swept through the South and took full control of the region and its oil fields. While all domestic and international observers were focused on the LNA’s surprisingly successful campaign in the south, Haftar has been hard at work. He has been absorbing more military, political and tribal factions into his army, while cleaning house and strengthening his hold on the East. Now with a reinforced military structure and newly gained territory, Haftar positions his troops in the country’s centre, in preparations for a Sirte offensive, with eyes set for Tripoli.
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COUNTRY FORECAST | LIBYA
In an attempt to avoid an all out war over Tripoli, Prince Mohammed bin Zayed hosted talks in late February between Haftar and Sarraj in Abu Dhabi, mediated by the UN SRSG Ghassan Salamé. Shaky at first, a source informed Libya Desk that the two men finally came to an agreement, mainly thanks to pressure from the Americans. Publicly, UNSMIL announced that an agreement has been reached and that both men agreed to hold elections in Libya this coming October.
The long awaited National Reconciliation Conference called by Ghassan
Salamé is to be held in Ghadames from April 14th to April 16th.
3-Month Forecast
The blueprint drawn up in Abu Dhabi consists of:
● Reforming the Presidential Council and creating a unified government. ● Fayez al-Sarraj will be stepping down as Prime Minister, likely replaced by
Mr. ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓
● Cabinet reshuffle will exclude the current Minister of ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓
● Replacement of Mustafa Sanalla as NOC chief with Mr. ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓
● Replacement of Al-Siddiq Al-Kabeer as Governor of the Central Bank of
Libya by Mr. ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓
● Haftar as head of the newly unified Libyan Army and ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓
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This plan along with a roadmap to elections will likely be presented to UNSMIL’s National Conference from April 14th to April 16th in Ghadames, Libya.
To ensure that all political bodies in Libya conform to the coming changes,
Under-Secretary General for Political Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo visited Libya in order to “herd the cattle” as one UN official told Libya Desk.
Libya Desk met with some of the officials mentioned above who confirmed their nominations. The majority of which stated that them taking on their roles highly depends on the results of the National Conference, as some still remain apprehensive of foreign and domestic meddling.
Major changes expected to take place at the NOC, where the incoming
Chief plans to carry out a full review, and open investigations into the conflict of interest charges facing Sanalla when it was found out that he has been doubling as a
Private Consultant to companies such as ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ during his visits to London.
A second meeting between Sarraj and Haftar expected to take place in the coming weeks in Geneva or Cairo.
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Before Ramadan this May, Haftar would have taken over Sirte, and peacefully entered Tripoli with assistance from two of the four major militias controlling it. It is also crucial to note that LNA has brigades stationed 40km from the capital in Gharyan and that the majority of municipalities and Tribes of the West have declared their support to the military strongman. His last two remaining variables remain to be Misrata and Zintan.
The weeks building up to the National Conference will prove very arduous for Ghassan Salamé, as he will need to navigate through a minefield of domestic and international interferences and put out any flames that may risk either al-Sarraj or Haftar backing out of the Abu Dhabi agreement.
If Salamé maintains his current momentum, and succeeds in convincing the 9 individuals Libya Desk deems crucial for an all out successful conference, we should see a more effective unified government managing Libya.
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Major risks that Libya Desk forecasts
1. Weaponization of media/social media by all political parties resulting in a rumour and fake news bombardment that is further inciting divisions
2. Fear of a Haftar offensive in Western Libya resulting in the resurfacing of extremist factions such as the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group that have spent the last two years disguised among separate factions and government
institutions.
3. Alarmed by the likelihood of losing influence in Libya, Qatar and Turkey double down by further supporting their proxies on the ground.
4. An increase in terrorist activities to be expected throughout the country in
hopes to destabilize any reconciliation efforts and prolonging the current status
quo.
5. Abu Dhabi agreement at risk as Haftar is entertaining a second offer from
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓, while al-Sarraj is breaking under pressures from Libyan militias in the West to back out and stand against the LNA strongman.
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LIBYA DESK
Who we are
When describing the current state of Libya, the term ‘complex’ just doesn't cut it. Two governments, two parliaments, tribal factions, competing domestic and international agendas and independent militia are just a fraction of the many dimensions of the country’s mosaic state.
As such, it comes as no surprise that countless NGO’s, IGO’s, consultants, Embassies and even local governments are struggling to keep up with the ongoing developments.
Thus, the idea of Libya Desk came to be, the first private consultancy on all things
Libya.
Our analysts have witnessed the country’s ongoing developments since 2011. Working in close proximity to key decision makers and played an active role in consulting and briefing the majority of the international and domestic actors for the last two years: making Libya Desk uniquely situated with a birds-eye view of the country’s ever changing dynamics.
With an unmatched network, Libya Desk is equipped with more information and more common sense than what is otherwise accessible on the market today. We strive to serve our clients in navigating Libya’s complex political and economic landscape by providing objective consultation.
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