CLASHING OVER FIGHTERS: WINNERS and LOSERS the Future Market for Combat Aircraft Is Likely to Be Dominated by the US, Russia, and a New Player – China

CSS Analysis in Security Policy CSS ETH Zurich No. 92 • April 2011

CLASHING OVER FIGHTERS: WINNERS AND LOSERS The future market for combat aircraft is likely to be dominated by the US, Russia, and a new player – China. These appear to be the only three countries capable of making the hugely demanding financial and technological leap from the fourth to the fifth generation of combat aircraft. While the competitive position of European players will probably be weakened in the longer term, China is catching up with US and Russian manufacturers. This will also create shifts in the balance of political and military power.

Over the years, combat aircraft have be- come more and more expensive. The current unit price for modern types varies between US$40 and US$100 million. Pro- curement programmes, which often include expensive contracts for armaments, training, spare parts, maintenance, service, and infrastructure, therefore account for the greatest share of arms expenditures in many countries and create huge burdens on defence budgets. In order to extend the service life of fighter jets after 15 to 20 years, costly upgrade packages are re- quired. The expensive and time-intensive procurement and maintenance of combat REUTERS/KYODO aircraft may influence defence policy and doctrine over decades. China gains ground: A prototype of the J-20 fifth-generation fighter. Chengdu, China, 5 January 2011. This influence is even stronger in the case It was no coincidence that the public pres- the already huge financial and develop- of proprietary development of combat entation of China’s fifth-generation fighter ment effort involved in developing combat aircraft. Even though aircraft industries prototype coincided with the visit of US aircraft, other countries are unlikely to keep are privately owned in certain states, Defense Secretary Robert Gates to Beijing pace with the main three powers involved. no military aircraft development pro- earlier this year. This makes China the third This will bring changes for the arms indus- gramme would be possible without the country after the US and Russia to reach try and the actors involved, not to mention financial and political support of the this development stage. In terms of tech- shifts in political and military power. respective government. The US began nology, the Chinese aerospace industry development of the second fighter of has not yet drawn level with Russian, let The high cost of added value a fifth-generation type, the Joint Strike alone the US competition, but it is rapidly Fighters are jet aircraft developed primarily Fighter (JSF) F-35, in the early 1990s. Deliv- gaining ground. for air-to-air or air-to-ground combat. They ery to the first squadrons is not expected are among the potentially most destabi- until the middle of this decade. The pro- The US F-22 is currently the only fully devel- lizing weapons platforms and are not only spective development and production oped and operational fifth-generation com- important defensive weapons, but also costs of US$382 billion for 2’443 units bat aircraft. However, the US will be joined permit fast, effective, and long-range at- and the expected unit sales price of more within the foreseeable future first by Rus- tacks. These capabilities can be greatly than US$100 million are also extraordi- sia and then by China. US manufacturers, enhanced by refuelling tankers, electronic nary. In view of this effort, it is doubtful in turn, are already testing a second type of warfare systems, and precision-guided mu- whether many producer and buyer na- the latest generation. Since the leap from nitions. Furthermore, combat aircraft serve tions will be able to make the transition the fourth to the fifth generation is more as delivery platforms for nuclear weapons from the fourth to the fifth generation of demanding by orders of magnitude than with all nuclear powers apart from the UK. combat aircraft.

to see additional export orders for the Ty- Combat aircraft in production and development (as of 2010/2011) phoon, the Rafale, and the Gripen in order Producing Aircraft type Status to recover at least part of the development Country costs. The situation is especially precarious China FC-1 (in Pakistan JF-17), J-10, J-11 In production for France, which has so far failed to sell any Rafale units abroad, despite aggres- J-20 In development/flight testing sive marketing. The affordable and simply France Rafale In production designed Pakistani JF-17, on the other hand, India Tejas Light Combat Aircraft In production might prove to be a successful export to poorer countries. Japan F-2 In production

Pakistan JF-17 (in China FC-1) In production The small group of producing countries is Russia Su-30MK, Su-34, Su-35, MiG-29SMT In production soliciting bids from and supplying a broad range of potential buyer countries. Most of MiG-35, In development/flight testing Su T-50 or PAK-FA the combat aircraft exported in the past Sweden JAS-39 Gripen In production few years have gone to India, the Middle US F-15E, F-16C/D (and IN), F/A-18E/F, In production East, China, and several countries in East F-22 and Southeast Asia. While China and In- F-15SE, F-35 In development/flight testing dia are mainly supplied by Russia, other countries such as Israel, the United Arab Germany/Italy/ Typhoon (Eurofighter) In production Emirates, South Korea, or Singapore mainly Spain/UK procure their combat aircraft from the US. Fifth-generation combat aircraft Sources: Jane’s Defence Weekly; SIPRI Fact Sheet Sweden has sold smaller batches of Gripen fighters to the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Thailand in recent years. Germany and Currently, the market is dominated by Although fifth-generation fighters do not the UK have been a little less successful fourth-generation fighters and their fur- mark a revolution in military technology, in selling the Eurofighter to Austria and ther developments, known as the 4+ and they are clearly superior to their predeces- Saudi Arabia. In order to secure orders, the 4++ generations. Fourth-generation types sors in terms of capabilities and character- producers are also courting smaller pro- feature pulse-Doppler radar (which is able istics and will transform the arms market. spective buyers such as Switzerland. How- not only to localise targets, but also to de- ever, the most hotly contested markets are termine their velocity), high manoeuvrabil- Market transformation currently the procurement programmes ity, and look-down/shoot-down missiles. International arms transfers are domi- of regional powers India and Brazil. Cur- The 4+ and 4++ generations include addi- nated by sales of fighter aircraft. Between rently, the US F/A-18 Super Hornet and tional capabilities: high agility, sensor fu- 2005 and 2009, they and the associated F-16, the French Rafale, the “European” Eu- sion, and reduced signatures; and an active weapons accounted for 33 per cent of the rofighter Typhoon, the Russian MiG-35 and phased-array radar (a radar system with overall transfer volume of heavy weapons. the Swedish Gripen are still competing to an electronically guided beam), partial Currently, only 12 countries build fighter win the approximately US$10 billion In- stealth capability, and, to some extent, su- aircraft. While China, France, India, Japan, dian Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft percruise capability (the ability to fly con- Russia, Sweden, and the US develop and programme. In the Brazilian programme, tinuously at supersonic speeds without build their own types, a consortium con- which is worth an estimated US$4 billion use of afterburner), respectively. sisting of Germany, Italy, Spain, and the to US$7 billion, the F/A-18 Super Hornet, UK produces the Eurofighter Typhoon. the Rafale, and the Gripen are still in the A fifth-generation fighter aircraft features Pakistan’s JF-17 Thunder programme is ul- running. India – the world’s largest import- all-aspect stealth with internal weapons, timately controlled by Beijing, as it was er of armaments – and Brazil will probably extreme agility, full-sensor fusion, inte- co-developed with China and is based on also remain important buyers of fighter grated avionics (the entire suite of elec- Chinese technology. aircraft in the future. tronic communications, navigation, display, and control instruments), and some or The market is dominated by the US and It is questionable, however, whether the full supercruise. These properties reduce Russia. Their 4+ and 4++ generation air- Europeans, and especially the French and the aircraft’s vulnerability. Furthermore, craft – the various modernised versions the Swedes, will be able to assert their the synthesis of data in the cockpit gives of the US F-15, F-16, and F/A-18 and the current positions as sellers on the market. the pilot a better overview of the tactical Russian Su-30MK, Su-35, MiG-29SMT, and There is currently no development pro- situation in line with the doctrine of net- MiG-35, respectively – are exported in fairly gramme for a fifth-generation fighter in work-centric warfare. For the time being, large quantities. Exports by other produc- Europe. It is true that the UK, Italy, Den- however, the F-22 seems to be only capa- ing countries, which primarily supply their mark, the Netherlands, and Norway – like ble of networked operations with others own air forces, are comparatively small. In Australia, Canada, and Turkey – are con- of its type. As far as their operational use the case of China, this is intentional, since tributing considerable resources (by their is concerned, fifth-generation fighters do Beijing is aiming to equip the People’s Lib- own standards) to the US JSF F-35 project. not differ from those of the fourth genera- eration Army Air Force as quickly as possi- But with the exception of the British, who tion. Maintenance is similar, though much ble. However, the Eurofighter consortium are also well represented on the technol- more expensive due to stealth technology. as well as France and Sweden would like ogy side by BAE Systems, they remain of

no consequence to the development of mainly the result of purchasing, reverse- the Chinese leadership has been success- the aircraft. Their participation is mainly engineering, and further development of ful. Today, only the US and Russia have a aimed at being able to procure the F-35 for Russian technology. In certain areas, such more complete aviation sector that can their own air forces. as jet engine technology, there is a degree produce the entire spectrum of military of dependency on Russia. The J-20, about aircraft types. Even if the Chinese have The US is now relying completely on the which little is known, is probably powered not yet drawn level with the US and Rus- multirole JSF for the future equipment of by Russian engines. However, since Russia sia, they will continue to catch up through its air units while phasing out production already considers China to be a potential technology imports, reverse engineering, of the F-22. Originally, the F-35 was to have market competitor, export licenses for and further development. Although China been built in separate configurations for aviation technology are not always ap- is currently prioritising equipment of its the US Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps, proved. The situation is different in the own air force, it is increasingly discover- respectively. However, due to technical case of Western states. Despite the Chi- ing export markets as a lucrative source problems, delays in the test phase, and nese arms embargo, the US and European of revenue. In the medium term, Chinese budget overruns, the plans for an alterna- countries continue to export dual-use fighter jets will probably compete with tive jet engine were discontinued and the technology because it is profitable to do 4+ generation types from Europe, Russia, development of a short take-off and verti- so. Such equipment is probably also used and the US for orders from developing cal landing type for the Marine Corps was in the J-20. countries. In the longer term, the Chinese put on hold. Due to the global financial might supersede the Europeans in the crisis, other countries such as the UK or In all likelihood, the European producer market, and their – most likely relatively the Netherlands have scaled down their states with their 4+ generation types will affordable – fifth-generation aircraft will planned orders of the aircraft. Neverthe- continue to assert their market position be a significant competitor for the respec- less, the F-35 will be the most powerful for a while longer. But they are in serious tive US and Russian models and 4++ gen- combat aircraft of the future. This is why danger of being displaced sooner or later eration types. countries such as Israel are stepping up ef- by the Chinese. They will only be able to forts to secure early delivery. prevent this if they join forces by way of Future competition for orders between consortium, as already seen in the case Beijing, Washington, and Moscow will be Beside the US, Russia has made the great- of the Eurofighter. This would ideally be motivated not just by economic, but also est progress in developing a fifth-gener- reinforced by participation of France and by political considerations. Rather like ation fighter. The fact is that the Russian Sweden down the line. The chances of the Cold War, the name of the game is to aircraft industry today is only a shadow of such a consortium becoming a reality are create mutual dependency between the its former Soviet-era self. But for the past questionable, though, since several Euro- leading players with those on the ‘buy’ few years, Moscow has been undertak- pean states have already committed their side. By choosing their source of imports, ing enormous efforts to modernise the air shrinking defence resources to the US JSF buyer countries will reveal their geostra- force and is reorganising the partially pri- project. It will also be difficult for them to tegic alignment. And given there will be vatised aviation industry. The development make up the development shortfall with few suppliers on the market, such politi- of a fifth-generation combat aircraft al- regard to a fifth-generation fighter type. cal and military dependencies will inevita- ready began in the 1990s. Since the begin- Only slightly more promising is Anglo- bly increase. At the military strategy level, ning of 2010, the prototype, designated the French cooperation. Both nations have sig- although a modern and self-sufficient Sukhoi T-50 or PAK-FA, has been undergo- nificant armament capabilities, and both air force will not put China in a position ing test flights. It has all the attributes of have declared their willingness to engage to offset US air superiority in East Asia, a fifth-generation fighter. However, its pre- in defence and armament cooperation. it could certainly pose a challenge. This cise capabilities remain classified for the Joint development of unmanned aerial would be in line with Beijing’s more of- time being. India, which is having trouble vehicles is one small, but concrete step fensive anti-access/area-denial defensive in aircraft development, has chosen this in this direction. But against this overall strategy. With a view to the Chinese-US fighter type for its advancement to the background, it is unlikely that a fifth-gen- rivalry, the laughing third party might be next generation and bought into the PAK- eration combat aircraft will be developed Russia, which – as is currently the case FA project. in Europe. Whether South Korea and Japan with India – constitutes an alternative will go beyond the stage of theoretical source of combat aircraft for buyer states. Into 2011, China took the world by sur- project development for such an undertak- prise when it unveiled the prototype of its ing remains to be seen. Author: fifth-generation fighter, the J-20. Beijing Marco Wyss has for many years been investing huge China’s advance [email protected] sums in the state-controlled aviation in- The transformation of the market for Responsible editor: dustry in order to advance the moderni- combat aircraft will also change the po- Daniel Trachsler sation of its air force. Until recently, China litical and military balance of power. [email protected] imported aircraft from Russia or produced Since the 1990s, China has reformed and licensed or modified versions of Russian financially strengthened its armaments Translated from German: models. But in the meantime, with the industry with the goal of building strong Christopher Findlay Chengdu J-10, Beijing has developed its and self-sufficiently equipped armed Other CSS Analyses / Mailinglist: first own modern fighter jet, and with the forces. The aviation industry and the air www.sta.ethz.ch J-20, it appears to have advanced to the force received preferential treatment in German and French versions: fifth generation. China’s quantum leap is this process. At least in material terms, www.ssn.ethz.ch