CLASHING OVER FIGHTERS: WINNERS and LOSERS the Future Market for Combat Aircraft Is Likely to Be Dominated by the US, Russia, and a New Player – China

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CLASHING OVER FIGHTERS: WINNERS and LOSERS the Future Market for Combat Aircraft Is Likely to Be Dominated by the US, Russia, and a New Player – China CSS Analysis in Security Policy CSS ETH Zurich No. 92 • April 2011 CLASHING OVER FIGHTERS: WINNERS AND LOSERS The future market for combat aircraft is likely to be dominated by the US, Russia, and a new player – China. These appear to be the only three countries capable of making the hugely demanding financial and technological leap from the fourth to the fifth generation of combat aircraft. While the competitive position of European players will probably be weakened in the longer term, China is catching up with US and Russian manufacturers. This will also create shifts in the balance of political and military power. Over the years, combat aircraft have be- come more and more expensive. The cur- rent unit price for modern types varies between US$40 and US$100 million. Pro- curement programmes, which often in- clude expensive contracts for armaments, training, spare parts, maintenance, service, and infrastructure, therefore account for the greatest share of arms expenditures in many countries and create huge burdens on defence budgets. In order to extend the service life of fighter jets after 15 to 20 years, costly upgrade packages are re- quired. The expensive and time-intensive procurement and maintenance of combat REUTERS/KYODO aircraft may influence defence policy and doctrine over decades. China gains ground: A prototype of the J-20 fifth-generation fighter. Chengdu, China, 5 January 2011. This influence is even stronger in the case It was no coincidence that the public pres- the already huge financial and develop- of proprietary development of combat entation of China’s fifth-generation fighter ment effort involved in developing combat aircraft. Even though aircraft industries prototype coincided with the visit of US aircraft, other countries are unlikely to keep are privately owned in certain states, Defense Secretary Robert Gates to Beijing pace with the main three powers involved. no military aircraft development pro- earlier this year. This makes China the third This will bring changes for the arms indus- gramme would be possible without the country after the US and Russia to reach try and the actors involved, not to mention financial and political support of the this development stage. In terms of tech- shifts in political and military power. respective government. The US began nology, the Chinese aerospace industry development of the second fighter of has not yet drawn level with Russian, let The high cost of added value a fifth-generation type, the Joint Strike alone the US competition, but it is rapidly Fighters are jet aircraft developed primarily Fighter (JSF) F-35, in the early 1990s. Deliv- gaining ground. for air-to-air or air-to-ground combat. They ery to the first squadrons is not expected are among the potentially most destabi- until the middle of this decade. The pro- The US F-22 is currently the only fully devel- lizing weapons platforms and are not only spective development and production oped and operational fifth-generation com- important defensive weapons, but also costs of US$382 billion for 2’443 units bat aircraft. However, the US will be joined permit fast, effective, and long-range at- and the expected unit sales price of more within the foreseeable future first by Rus- tacks. These capabilities can be greatly than US$100 million are also extraordi- sia and then by China. US manufacturers, enhanced by refuelling tankers, electronic nary. In view of this effort, it is doubtful in turn, are already testing a second type of warfare systems, and precision-guided mu- whether many producer and buyer na- the latest generation. Since the leap from nitions. Furthermore, combat aircraft serve tions will be able to make the transition the fourth to the fifth generation is more as delivery platforms for nuclear weapons from the fourth to the fifth generation of demanding by orders of magnitude than with all nuclear powers apart from the UK. combat aircraft. © 2011 Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich 1 CSS Analysis in Security Policy No. 92 • April 2011 to see additional export orders for the Ty- Combat aircraft in production and development (as of 2010/2011) phoon, the Rafale, and the Gripen in order Producing Aircraft type Status to recover at least part of the development Country costs. The situation is especially precarious China FC-1 (in Pakistan JF-17), J-10, J-11 In production for France, which has so far failed to sell any Rafale units abroad, despite aggres- J-20 In development/flight testing sive marketing. The affordable and simply France Rafale In production designed Pakistani JF-17, on the other hand, India Tejas Light Combat Aircraft In production might prove to be a successful export to poorer countries. Japan F-2 In production Pakistan JF-17 (in China FC-1) In production The small group of producing countries is Russia Su-30MK, Su-34, Su-35, MiG-29SMT In production soliciting bids from and supplying a broad range of potential buyer countries. Most of MiG-35, In development/flight testing Su T-50 or PAK-FA the combat aircraft exported in the past Sweden JAS-39 Gripen In production few years have gone to India, the Middle US F-15E, F-16C/D (and IN), F/A-18E/F, In production East, China, and several countries in East F-22 and Southeast Asia. While China and In- F-15SE, F-35 In development/flight testing dia are mainly supplied by Russia, other countries such as Israel, the United Arab Germany/Italy/ Typhoon (Eurofighter) In production Emirates, South Korea, or Singapore mainly Spain/UK procure their combat aircraft from the US. Fifth-generation combat aircraft Sources: Jane’s Defence Weekly; SIPRI Fact Sheet Sweden has sold smaller batches of Gripen fighters to the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Thailand in recent years. Germany and Currently, the market is dominated by Although fifth-generation fighters do not the UK have been a little less successful fourth-generation fighters and their fur- mark a revolution in military technology, in selling the Eurofighter to Austria and ther developments, known as the 4+ and they are clearly superior to their predeces- Saudi Arabia. In order to secure orders, the 4++ generations. Fourth-generation types sors in terms of capabilities and character- producers are also courting smaller pro- feature pulse-Doppler radar (which is able istics and will transform the arms market. spective buyers such as Switzerland. How- not only to localise targets, but also to de- ever, the most hotly contested markets are termine their velocity), high manoeuvrabil- Market transformation currently the procurement programmes ity, and look-down/shoot-down missiles. International arms transfers are domi- of regional powers India and Brazil. Cur- The 4+ and 4++ generations include addi- nated by sales of fighter aircraft. Between rently, the US F/A-18 Super Hornet and tional capabilities: high agility, sensor fu- 2005 and 2009, they and the associated F-16, the French Rafale, the “European” Eu- sion, and reduced signatures; and an active weapons accounted for 33 per cent of the rofighter Typhoon, the Russian MiG-35 and phased-array radar (a radar system with overall transfer volume of heavy weapons. the Swedish Gripen are still competing to an electronically guided beam), partial Currently, only 12 countries build fighter win the approximately US$10 billion In- stealth capability, and, to some extent, su- aircraft. While China, France, India, Japan, dian Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft percruise capability (the ability to fly con- Russia, Sweden, and the US develop and programme. In the Brazilian programme, tinuously at supersonic speeds without build their own types, a consortium con- which is worth an estimated US$4 billion use of afterburner), respectively. sisting of Germany, Italy, Spain, and the to US$7 billion, the F/A-18 Super Hornet, UK produces the Eurofighter Typhoon. the Rafale, and the Gripen are still in the A fifth-generation fighter aircraft features Pakistan’s JF-17 Thunder programme is ul- running. India – the world’s largest import- all-aspect stealth with internal weapons, timately controlled by Beijing, as it was er of armaments – and Brazil will probably extreme agility, full-sensor fusion, inte- co-developed with China and is based on also remain important buyers of fighter grated avionics (the entire suite of elec- Chinese technology. aircraft in the future. tronic communications, navigation, display, and control instruments), and some or The market is dominated by the US and It is questionable, however, whether the full supercruise. These properties reduce Russia. Their 4+ and 4++ generation air- Europeans, and especially the French and the aircraft’s vulnerability. Furthermore, craft – the various modernised versions the Swedes, will be able to assert their the synthesis of data in the cockpit gives of the US F-15, F-16, and F/A-18 and the current positions as sellers on the market. the pilot a better overview of the tactical Russian Su-30MK, Su-35, MiG-29SMT, and There is currently no development pro- situation in line with the doctrine of net- MiG-35, respectively – are exported in fairly gramme for a fifth-generation fighter in work-centric warfare. For the time being, large quantities. Exports by other produc- Europe. It is true that the UK, Italy, Den- however, the F-22 seems to be only capa- ing countries, which primarily supply their mark, the Netherlands, and Norway – like ble of networked operations with others own air forces, are comparatively small. In Australia, Canada, and Turkey – are con- of its type. As far as their operational use the case of China, this is intentional, since tributing considerable resources (by their is concerned, fifth-generation fighters do Beijing is aiming to equip the People’s Lib- own standards) to the US JSF F-35 project.
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