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Volcanic Risk Zoning in the Island of Ischia (Italy)

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Volcanic Risk Zoning in the Island of Ischia (Italy) © 2002 WIT Press, Ashurst Lodge, Southampton, SO40 7AA, UK. All rights reserved. Web: www.witpress.com Email [email protected] Paper from: Risk Analysis III, CA Brebbia (Editor). ISBN 1-85312-915-1 Volcanic risk zoning in the island of Ischia (Italy) M. Matteral, J,F. Martfn-Duquel, J. Pedrazal, M.A. Sanzl, R.M. Carrasco2 & J.M. Bodoquel ‘ Univemidad Complutense, Spain 2 Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Spain Abstract Ischia constitutes the largest and more populated island of the Neapolitan archipelago. As other active volcanic areas along the middle-west Italian coast (Somma-Vesuvius and Phlegrean Fields), the volcanic activity of Ischia stems from deep fractures associated with the Tyrrhenian sea-floor spreading over the last 10 million years. The record of historic eruptions along with signs of thermal activity show that there is a potential for hazardous volcanic events. The paper constitutes a first approach to the zoning of the volcanic risk of the island, by considering the three main factors involved — the elements at risk, or value (population), the hazard posed by the volcanic phenomena, and the degree of damage resulting from the hazard (vulnerability). The analysis of the hazard was carried out by using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques and eruptive models. The analysis was based not only on the evaluation of the probability of occurrence of a fiture new eruption within the island, but also on the evaluation of the probability of occurrence of different intensities and topologies. As those topologies have different energy and potential for destruction, they also condition the vulnerability of the value, which is different for each volcanic phenomenon. The results show lower volcanic risk levels than for similar volcanic areas, However, if two characteristics of the analysed territory are taken into account —the high tourist affluence and the insularity-, then the risk shouldn’t be underestimated. 1 Geological and vulcanological setting of Ischia The island of Ischia is located northwest of the gulf of Naples (figure 1). The volcanic activity of the Neapolitan archipelago is related with the recent geological evolution of the Tyrrhenian Sea. About 10 million years ago, the © 2002 WIT Press, Ashurst Lodge, Southampton, SO40 7AA, UK. All rights reserved. Web: www.witpress.com Email [email protected] Paper from: Risk Analysis III, CA Brebbia (Editor). ISBN 1-85312-915-1 16 Risk Analysis III Italian peninsula and the islands of Corsica, Sardinia and Sicily were bound together. Since then, a process of sea-floor spreading formed the Tyrrhenian Sea, determining an anticlockwise rotation of the Italian peninsula. This movement, still in progress, has generated the stretching of the crust and the formation of deep faults, favouring the outflow of magmas to the surface. Ischia has been formed by different pyroclastic eruptions and effimive activity, Absolute dating and volcanological studies have allowed to summarize this activity in five main phases, accurately studied and described by Vezzoli [1]. Different from sole volcanoes, Ischia doesn’t show an only vent — previous eruptions are aligned to fault-associated centres. This circumstance was important for the hazard evaluation, which focused not only on the absolute probability of occurrence of a new eruption, but also on the spatial probability of formation of new eruptive centres —and their possible eruptive topologies-. Figure 1: Digital Elevation Model of Ischia obtained from a grid of 10 m. The figure shows a superimposed one-square-kilometre grid (UTM coordinates, map n“ 183 of the Italian Military Geographic Institute, scale 1:25 ,000), to which several calculations will be referred to. 2 Methodology Despite there are numerous procedures developed for the evaluation of natural risks, perhaps the most widely accepted by the scientific community is that proposed by UNESCO [2]. Specifically considered for volcanic risk, Scandone and others [3] state: Risk = (Value) x (Vulnerability) x (Hazard) (1) where: Value, total amount of lives or properties at risk for a volcanic eruption; Vulnerabili&, percentage of lives or goods likely to be lost because of a given © 2002 WIT Press, Ashurst Lodge, Southampton, SO40 7AA, UK. All rights reserved. Web: www.witpress.com Email [email protected] Paper from: Risk Analysis III, CA Brebbia (Editor). ISBN 1-85312-915-1 Risk Analysis III 17 volcanic event; Hazard, probability that a given area may be affected by a certain volcanic phenomenon, Among thew the most difficult factor to evaluate is the hazard, because it includes the evaluation of the probability of occurrence of a new eruption —with different intensity-, and the evaluation of the probability of the different topologies that might occur for each eruption. 2,1 Hazard evaluation The hazard evaluation was based upon the hypothesis that a future volcanic eruption will take place behaving similarly to previous episodes, Thus, the first step was the characterization of the volcanic record of Ischia [1], This was done for the last 55,000 years, which is the age of the main stratigraphic unit of the island —the Tufo Verde- and the beginning of the present volcanic dynamics, The second step was to assign the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of Newhall and Self [4] to each eruptive episode. For this, the volumes of each eruption were evaluated, and the type of eruption —from the characteristics of the deposits [1]— were deduced, as they are the main factors which allow the assignment of a VEI. The volume evaluation was carried out by the measurement of a three- dimensional representation of the different volcanic units (by using both the Surfer 7.0 and CartaLinx 2.0 software), Results are shown in table 1, Table 1. Volcanic eruptions in Ischia for the last 55,000 years and associated VEI [4]. (+) cubic meters; (*) thousands of years. EPISODE VOLUME (+) VEI AGE (*) EPISODE VOLUME (+) VEI AGE (*) Tufo Verde 6040421764 6 55,00 S,Anna 65889405 3 22.60 Pietre Rosse 1537937600 5 46.00 Costa Sparaina 44729669 3 4,00 TtiI del Giglio 1510000000 5 33,00 C.s Costalrzo 32638920 3 38.40 Piano Liguori 1103815279 5 5.50 Schiappa and Pomicione 21897696 3 24,00 Selva de] Napolitano 695314783 4 10.00 Pilaro 17391059 3 25,00 Unkrrown centers 386421760 4 3,10 Ciglio and Cava Pelara 13701178 3 23.00 Puuta Irqeratore 272666079 4 19.00 Monte Cotto 11942697 3 28.00 Cantariello 232410831 4 5,00 Monte Vezzi 11048663 3 27,00 Camotese 225207245 4 17.00 Monte Trippodi 9299688 2 1.80 S. Montano 99000000 3 34.00 Vatoliero and others 7972679 2 1.70 Zaro 96249528 3 6.00 Rotaro III 7559731 2 1,70 Bosco dei Conti 94806104 3 2.50 Punts dells Carrrumia 7226958 2 4,50 Upper Cava Pelara 91452237 3 20,00 Lower Cava Pelara 5875222 2 24.00 %arrupo di Parrza 91183976 3 24.00 Catieri 3467587 2 15.00 Rotaro I 91093313 3 2.10 Rotaro IV 2898951 2 1.61 Montagnone I 86082744 3 2.70 Rione Bocca 2736900 2 2.40 Grotta di Terra 85499103 3 19,50 Monte Tabor 984127 1 3.50 Rotaro II 83253603 3 1.80 Porto dkhia 908138 1 2.30 Montagnone II 73218441 3 1.90 Castiglione 795491 1 2.80 Arso 68307999 3 0.70 Grotta del Mavone 557234 1 29,00 Once the VEI was assigned to each episode of the volcanic record, the probability of occurrence for each VEI was evaluated. For the statistics of volcanic eruptions, it is classical the distinction between volcanoes “without © 2002 WIT Press, Ashurst Lodge, Southampton, SO40 7AA, UK. All rights reserved. Web: www.witpress.com Email [email protected] Paper from: Risk Analysis III, CA Brebbia (Editor). ISBN 1-85312-915-1 18 Risk Analysis III memory” and “with memory” (Wickman [5]), For the former, the number of eruptions in a given time interval has a pattern that follows the Poisson distribution — the probability of occurrence of an eruption within a time interval is independent of time. Ischia behaves like volcanic areas with memory, where the probability of occurrence of an eruption is not independent of time, because the larger the volume of an eruption, the longer the time between an eruption and the next, For these situations, the Poisson distribution can not be applied directly, but subdividing the volcanic activity in different VEI classes, Then, the probability of eruption for each VEI can be generalized according to a Poisson distribution, Specifically, for explosive volcanoes, the relationship between the frequency and each VEI has an exponential pattern (Scandone and Giacomelli [6]): where: Q is the eruption frequency per year; a is an eruptive fi-equency index of the volcano; and b represents an index of the style of activity of the volcano. This relation can be expressed similarly to the Gutenberg-Richter equation [6]: logo = log(a) -b* J“H (3) where: b is now a coefficient that represents the slope of the regression line established for VEI 2 2. Eruptions with VEI < 2 are not considered in the analysis, because it is assumed that they are underestimated in historical records, Actually, table 1 shows clearly how the number of events of VEI <2 decreases noticeably with time. For this reason, to calculate the frequency for each VEI, a different time span was considered. By implementing the frequency results for each VEI in the relation (3), a simple regression was established between frequencies and VEI classes. Results are shown in figure 2. 0.01 n = -1.96016983 = y = -1.96016983-0,46014296x ~ = .0,46014296 0.001 t’= ‘w 0.0001 I @= l,096~l@ ~ Jo-(o 4614”~U 1 \ ‘-squued=0998074 Figure 2: Mathematical development and fashion of the simple regression between eruptive frequencies and VEI classes. © 2002 WIT Press, Ashurst Lodge, Southampton, SO40 7AA, UK.
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