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ALFA Corporate Note January 18, 2019

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ALFA Corporate Note January 18, 2019 Equity Research Mexico ALFA Corporate Note January 18, 2019 Focused on strengthening its balance sheet www.banorte.com @analisis_fundam . Through our sum-of-the-parts valuation model, we have set a 2019 PT of MXN$ 29.50, which represents a 5.9x 2019e EV/EBITDA multiple, Marissa Garza similar to the current level. We extend a BUY recommendation Mining/Chemicals/Industrials/Financials/Railways [email protected] . The company’s strategy remains focused on strengthening its financial situation, through the sale of non-strategic assets, without neglecting new opportunities that may arise BUY Current Price MXN$24.58 PT2019 MXN$29.50 . In 2019 we anticipate a 3.7% increase in revenue and an 8.1% rise in Dividend 2019 MXN$0.65 EBITDA yoy, supported by improved profitability in all its Dividend (%) 2.7% subsidiaries, highlighting the figures of Alpek, Nemak and Sigma Upside Potential 23.4% Max – Mín LTM 25.54-19.53 2019, key year to strengthen Alfa’s financial situation. The company’s Market Cap (USD$m) 6,534.5 Shares outstanding (m) 5,055.1 strategy is focused on maintaining a long-term value creation approach and Float 54.5% guarantee the excellence of key operations. Accordingly, Alfa will maintain a Daily Turnover (MXN$m) 168.5 Valuation Metrics LTM * conservative profile throughout the year, focusing on enhancing its balance FV/EBITDA Adj 5.8x sheet, through the sale of non-strategic assets, as we have confirmed with P/E 16.0x Axtel’s recent divestment of operations (the sale of Axtel’s residential fiber- to-the-home- business in December) and Alpek (with the recent agreement for Relative performance to MEXBOL the sale of two cogeneration energy plants). As for Nemak, the company will (LTM) 10% continue to focus on the growth of its business aimed at spare parts for 5% electrical vehicles and structural components; while Sigma will maintain its 0% strategy concentrated on strengthening and expanding its key business through -5% -10% technological innovation and the launching of new products. For Newpek, we -15% expect the divestment of U.S. assets to continue, with limited and selective -20% -25% investment projects in Mexico. Therefore, our 2019 estimations assume a ene-18 abr-18 jul-18 oct-18 ene-19 3.7% increase in revenue and an 8.1% rise in EBITDA yoy in peso-based MEXBOL ALFAA terms, resulting in an EBITDA expansion of 60bps to 14.1%. Financial Statements Valuation and Financial metrics 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Rev enue 293,782 317,627 365,334 378,785 EV/EBITDA 6.2x 7.2x 5.8x 5.4x Operating Income 24,214 19,235 30,162 33,368 P/E 46.8x -61.6x 11.3x 8.7x EBITDA 43,255 38,312 49,327 53,333 P/BV 1.7x 1.8x 1.8x 1.5x EBITDA Margin 14.72% 12.06% 13.50% 14.08% Net Income 2,700 -2,051 11,173 14,607 ROE 3.5% -3.0% 15.9% 17.9% Net Margin 0.92% -0.65% 3.06% 3.86% ROA 0.8% -0.6% 3.1% 3.9% EBITDA/ Interest 5.5x 4.8x 5.4x 5.8x Total Assets 348,939 358,968 357,514 378,521 Net Debt/EBITDA 2.7x 3.3x 2.8x 2.5x Cash 24,633 32,813 17,996 30,965 Debt/Equity 1.4x 1.7x 1.6x 1.5x Total Liabilities 247,951 266,542 264,039 271,385 This document is provided for the reader’s convenience Debt 143,268 159,403 154,656 165,968 only. The translation from the original Spanish version Common Equity 100,988 92,427 99,600 113,578 was made by Banorte’s staff. Discrepancies may possibly arise between the original document in Spanish Source: Banorte and its English translation. For this reason, the original research paper in Spanish is the only official document. The Spanish version was released before the English translation. The original document entitled “ALFA enfocada en fortalecer su balance” was released on 1 January 18, 2019 Document for distribution among public ALFA – Financial Statements Revenue & EBITDA Margin MXN, million MXN, million Income Statement Year 2016 2017 2018E 2019E CAGR 14.9% 14.7% 14.1% 400,000 13.5% 16.0% Net Revenue 293,782.1 317,627.3 365,334.4 378,784.6 9.2% 350,000 12.1% 14.0% Cost of goods sold 232,378.1 251,239.4 288,975.1 299,614.1 8.8% 300,000 12.0% Gross profit 61,404.0 66,387.9 76,359.3 79,170.5 8.8% 250,000 10.0% General expenses 37,190.3 55,192.9 46,197.3 45,832.9 7.2% 200,000 8.0% Operating Income 24,213.7 11,195.0 30,162.0 33,337.6 11.2% 150,000 6.0% Operating Margin 8.2% 3.5% 8.3% 8.8% 2.2% Depreciation 19,041.3 18,638.2 19,164.9 19,995.4 1.6% 100,000 4.0% EBITDA 43,255.0 38,312.0 49,326.9 53,333.0 7.2% 50,000 2.0% EBITDA Margin 14.7% 12.1% 13.5% 14.1% -1.5% 0 0.0% Interest income (expense) net (684.1) (5,061.3) (10,346.3) (9,942.2) 144.0% 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019e Interest expense 8,590.5 8,998.2 10,027.9 10,031.9 5.3% Revenue EBITDA Margin Interest income 719.5 1,011.5 885.1 861.0 6.2% Other income (expenses) 7,186.8 2,925.4 (1,203.5) (771.4) -147.5% Exchange Income (loss) 115.1 92.4 135.8 Unconsolidated subsidiaries 9,155.9 282.9 22,222.7 24,938.1 39.7% Net Income before taxes 4,160.6 1,802.8 8,040.7 7,980.2 24.2% Net Income & ROE Provision for Income taxes 2,699.8 (2,051.2) 11,172.5 14,607.2 75.6% MXN, million Discontinued operations 2,410.6 623.7 3,145.4 2,350.7 -0.8% Consolidated Net Income 289.2 (2,674.9) 8,027.1 12,256.5 248.7% Minorities 0.1% -0.8% 2.2% 3.2% 220.3% Net Income 0.056 (0.521) 1.563 2.387 248.7% 14,000 20.0% 15.0% Net Margin 293,782.1 317,627.3 365,334.4 378,784.6 9.2% 12,000 15.0% EPS 232,378.1 251,239.4 288,975.1 299,614.1 8.8% 10,000 11.4% 8,000 10.0% Balance Sheet (Million pesos) 6,000 4,000 Total Current Assets 111,768.4 122,135.4 114,536.3 135,140.1 6.5% 2.6% 5.0% Cash & Short Term Investments 24,633.2 32,813.2 17,995.7 30,964.5 7.9% 2,000 0.4% Long Term Assets 237,170.3 236,832.8 242,977.8 243,381.0 0.9% 0 0.0% -3.9% Property, Plant & Equipment (Net) 149,502.9 153,642.3 151,959.0 152,991.0 0.8% (2,000) 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019e Intangible Assets (Net) 87,667.4 83,190.6 91,018.8 90,390.0 1.0% (4,000) -5.0% Total Assets 348,938.7 358,968.2 357,514.1 378,521.1 2.7% Current Liabilities 83,006.1 98,193.5 95,318.4 90,061.5 2.8% Net Income ROE Short Term Debt 6,723.0 15,587.8 11,926.4 12,927.8 24.4% Accounts Payable 76,283.1 82,605.8 83,392.0 77,133.6 0.4% Long Term Liabilities 164,944.5 168,348.1 168,720.7 181,323.3 3.2% Long Term Debt 136,545.1 143,815.7 142,729.2 153,039.8 3.9% Total Liabilities 247,950.6 266,541.6 264,039.1 271,384.7 3.1% Net Debt & Net debt to EBITDA ratio Common Stock 100,988.1 92,426.6 93,474.9 107,136.4 2.0% MXN, million Noncontrolling Interest 24,836.9 22,989.4 23,081.6 25,432.3 0.8% Total Equity 76,151.2 69,437.2 70,393.4 81,704.1 2.4% 3.3x Liabilities & Equity 348,938.7 358,968.2 357,514.1 378,521.1 2.7% 160,000 3.5x Net Debt 118,634.8 126,590.2 136,659.9 135,003.1 4.4% 2.7x 2.8x 140,000 2.5x 3.0x 120,000 2.1x Source: Banorte, MSE 2.5x 100,000 2.0x 80,000 1.5x 60,000 40,000 1.0x 20,000 0.5x 0 0.0x 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019e Net Debt Net Debt to EBITDA . 2 2019 Estimates. We are incorporating into our projection model, recent adjustment made to our estimates of Alfa’s subsidiaries-– Alpek, Axtel, y Nemak –, in addition to including the new exchange rate trajectory (MXN$ 21.30 by year-end 2019) and the expectation of higher rates, in line with forecasts estimated by our Fixed Income and FX Strategy department. Therefore, on a consolidated basis, in 2019 we expect MXN$ 378.7 billion (US $18.9 billion +1.8% yoy) in revenue and MXN$ 53.3 billion (US$ 2.6 billion +3.4% yoy) in EBITDA, up 3.7% and 8.1% yoy respectively.
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