1/ST BET // WAGER GUIDE

BELMONT STAKES JUNE5/2021 POST POSITIONS

FRANCE GO DE INA BOURBONIC (15/1) Owner: (30/1) Trainer: Owner: Yuji Inaida 1 : Kendrick Carmouche 5 Trainer: Hideyuki Mori Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.

ESSENTIAL QUALITY (6/1) (2/1) Owner: St. Elias Stable Owner: Godolphin Trainer: Todd Pletcher 2 Trainer: Brad Cox 6 Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Jockey:

ROCK YOUR WORLD (3/1) (9/2) Owner: John & Diane Fradkin Owner: Hronis Racing & David 3 Trainer: Mike McCarthy 7 Michael Talla Jockey: John Velazquez Trainer: John Sadler Jockey:

HOT ROD CHARLIE (7/2) Owner: Roadrunner Racing, OVERTOOK (2O/1) Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Boat Racing, Strauss Bros. Stable & Coolmore Racing & Gainesway 4 8 Trainer: Todd Pletcher Trainer: Doug O’Neill Jockey: Manny Franco Jockey:

Odds listed are Belmont Park morning line odds.

1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 2 MEET THE BELMONT CONTENDERS By Johnny D., @XBJohnnyD

ROMBAUER: The Preakness winner will have a new jockey in the Belmont Stakes. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, who rode across the finish first at the Derby and to a third-place finish in Preakness, will replace Flavien Prat, who piloted this son of Twirling Candy to a . Prat will re-mount third-place finisher for a shot at Belmont success. No official word on why the saddle switch, but an educated guess is that Prat may have his Belmont services to Hot Rod Charlie’s connections immediately after the Derby and before the surprising Preakness triumph. In any case, it’s impossible not to be impressed with Rombauer’s dominant Preakness performance. At Pimlico, Rombauer raced within striking distance of the early leaders without being urged and then finished with gusto and attitude. That’s a great running style for the Belmont. Can he immediately repeat in the Belmont what was a lifetime-best effort at much less odds than the nearly 12-1 he was in the Preakness?

HOT ROD CHARLIE: As expected, this ran well at 5.60-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby to finish third, beaten just one length. In keeping with the colt’s longer break between races in 2021 (six and seven weeks), connections decided to skip the Preakness and aim for the Belmont Stakes with five weeks’ rest. All systems seem ‘go’ as the colt has trained well in the interim. This son of out of an didn’t close much ground on leaders through the Churchill stretch, but he didn’t lose any either. Ultimately, the winner denied Kentucky Derby favorite ’s rallying bid for third in Louisville. This colt has shown speed in the past and probably will be forwardly placed in the Belmont Stakes.

ESSENTIAL QUALITY: The Kentucky Derby favorite could manage a mere fourth-place finish, but he ran well despite losing ground. He was bothered at the start, recovered, raced wide and closed well in the lane. The lost ground certainly affected his final placing, but he effectively had dead aim on Hot Rod Charlie and couldn’t pass him in the lane for third. Under the care of 2020 Award-winning trainer Brad Cox, last season’s 2-year-old champion worked a solid five furlongs at for his penultimate Belmont morning move. The son of has displayed a versatile style in previous races, and that will come in handy in where, contrary to popular opinion, it’s best to be closer to the early pace than to attempt to rally from a distant zip code.

KNOWN AGENDA: The winner started as fourth choice in the Kentucky Derby, at contender’s odds of nearly 10-1. He finished a disappointing ninth. Although he about split the field, he had no real excuse. Neither jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. nor trainer Todd Pletcher had any explanation for the colt’s somewhat dull Derby effort and will give him another shot in what amounts to a ‘home game’ at Belmont Park. If you draw a line through his Kentucky Derby non- effort – and it should be noted, this colt has ‘phoned it in’ before and immediately bounced back – his Florida Derby form fits in the Belmont. Not a particularly good work horse, he’s a little guy who has been able to put it all together for three victories in seven starts.

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The 1/ST BET app uses more than 50 factors in evaluating each horse in a race, drawing from a library of more than 200,000 previous races to match past success with future success. 1/ST BET automatically matches and ranks the proven, most successful factors in each race, while Similar to this year’s Kentucky Derby and , we asked renowned it also gives you the ability to select 1/ST and NBC handicapper Eddie Olczyk which handicapping angles he applies your own set of factors to make when analyzing the Belmont Stakes. Now, for the first time, you can reconstruct personalized, artificial intelligence- Edzo’s Belmont Stakes approach and put it to work for yourself by combining based selections in mere seconds. forces with the 1/ST BET app.

“Almost everything for me when it comes to the Belmont Stakes zeroes in on the mile and one-half distance,” Olczyk explained. “You certainly have to realize there are limitations and restrictions for some horses who simply can’t get the distance. Past running lines, running style and breeding can tell us the most.”

BREEDING MATTERS 1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY

Eddie leans heavily on pedigree in the Belmont, and the 1/ST BET algorithm DISTANCE PEDIGREE RATING could not agree more. How important is pedigree to the Belmont? Consider: DIRT PEDIGREE RATING Top 1/ST BET Belmont Stakes Distance Pedigree Ratings • 2020 WON • 2017 WON • 2016 WON

FINISHING ABILITY 1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY

As the longest Triple Crown race by 440 yards, horses with an ability to finish LAST LATE PACE strong over the previously shorter distances are coveted. That’s not necessarily AVG. LAST 3 LATE PACE come-from-behind horses, but rather those who have a sustained late kick LAST TURN TIME from any spot in the race. The factors here lean less toward the early (E1, E2) AVG. LAST 3 TURN TIMES pace of the Derby and Preakness and more to those who can sustain it. Overall AVG. BEST 2 OF LAST 3 SPEED speed is still important, but given we’ve seen so many poor Derby performances improved upon at Belmont, give a horse a mulligan for a poor showing.

EXTRA POINTS 1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY

“Past experience at Belmont Park can be a decider when choosing between BEST SPEED TODAY’S TRACK evenly-matched horses who never raced at Belmont versus ones who have,” AVG. EARNINGS TODAY’S TRACK Olczyk said. “Good Belmont experience gets some preference on the horse- BEST SPEED OFF TRACK for-course if runners are of similar ability.” And, always prepare for an off track. MUD PEDIGREE RATING

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Final point: The 1/ST BET app’s factors allow you to adjust your considerations in mere seconds as the day unfolds. “Flexibility is key to being a good horseplayer,” Olczyk said. “On Derby Day, you watch Jackie’s Warrior run off in the Mile and not stop even after blazing fractions, and it becomes more obvious that you want to be near the front in the Derby. And that’s exactly how it played out.” FACTORS THROUGH HISTORY BELMONT STAKES 2017-2020 We searched the 1/ST BET archives to re-examine the last five editions of the Belmont Stakes. See where the winners ranked best in their respective fields in terms of handicapping factors, and look for those commonalities with this year’s runners when using the 1/ST BET app to handicap the final jewel in the Triple Crown. Learn more.

2020 2018 2017

WINNER: TIZ THE LAW WINNER: WINNER: TAPWRIT RANKED 1ST IN 13 CATEGORIES RANKED FIRST IN 28 FACTORS RANKED FIRST IN 5 FACTORS AVG. BEST 2 OF LAST 3 SPEED SPEED LAST RACE DISTANCE PEDIGREE RATING BEST SPEED LAST 3 LAST E2 PACE DIRT PEDIGREE RATING WIN PERCENT LAST E1 PACE TURF PEDIGREE RATING BEST LIFETIME SPEED BEST SPEED LAST 3 LAST PURSE BEST SPEED FAST TRACK AVG. LAST 3 PURSE MUD PEDIGREE RATING AVG. LIFETIME EARNINGS LAST TURN TIME TRAINER CURRENT YEAR AVG. OF LAST 3 E1 PACE HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS: AVG. EARNINGS TODAY’S DISTANCE TRAINER WIN % 2 YRS TWISTED TOM (12), MEANTIME (10), AVG. EARNINGS TODAY’S TRACK BEST LIFETIME SPEED LOOKIN AT LEE (6) BEST SPEED OFF TRACK AVG. OF LAST 3 E2 PACE BEST SPEED THIS DISTANCE BEST SPEED OFF TRACK 2016 DISTANCE PEDIGREE RATING AVG. OFF TRACK EARNINGS TRAINER WIN % 6 MONTHS BEST SPEED FAST TRACK WINNER: CREATOR AVG. LAST 3 RACES CLASSES RANKED FIRST IN 3 FACTORS HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS: WIN PERCENT DISTANCE PEDIGREE RATING TIZ THE LAW (13), SOLE VOLANTE (8), TRAINER CURRENT YEAR DISTANCE WORKED TAP IT TO WIN (8) LAST FINISH POSITION LAST TURN TIME AVG. LIFETIME EARNINGS HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS: 2019 AVG. SPEED LAST 3 HORSES BEATEN % (10), GOVERNOR WINNER: TRAINER WIN % 1 YEAR MALIBU (9), LANI (6) RANKED 1ST IN 6 CATEGORIES IN THE MONEY % AVG. ALL WEATHER EARNINGS DAYS SINCE LAST RACE BEST SPEED ALL WEATHER AVG. BEST 2 OF LAST 3 SPEED SPEED LAST RACE JOCKEY WIN % 1 YEAR BEST SPEED TRACK TRAINER-JOCKEY WIN % 2 YEARS AVG. EARNINGS TRACK AVG. EARNINGS TODAY’S DISTANCE TRAINER CURRENT MEET BEST SPEED THIS DISTANCE

HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS: HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS: JOEVIA (9), TAX (7), SIR WINSTON (6), JUSTIFY (28), HOFBURG (6), (6) FREE DROP BILLY (3)

FACTOR CATEGORIES:

= PERFORMANCE = JOCKEY+ TRAINER = RESULTS = PEDIGREE Tiz the Law (2020)

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HORSE WIN% PLACE% SHOW% FAIR ODDS

1 BOURBONIC 10% 17% 34% 9/1

2 ESSENTIAL QUALITY 26% 58% 75% 3/1

3 ROMBAUER 14% 31% 50% 6/1

4 HOT ROD CHARLIE 21% 31% 44% 4/1

5 FRANCE GO DE INA 6% 10% 14% 15/1

6 KNOWN AGENDA 14% 24% 38% 6/1

7 6% 10% 14% 15/1

8 OVERTOOK 5% 20% 32% 20/1

1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 7 1/ST BET: BELMONT PARK 6/5 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PICKS Race # - Post Time Win Place Show Fair Odds Race # - Post Time Win Place Show Fair Odds

RACE 1 (11:35 AM ET) // MAIDEN ($90K) RACE 8 (3:58 PM ET) // GRADE 1 JUST A GAME ($500K) 3 HAGLER 30% 44% 58% 5/2 11 BLOWOUT 16% 33% 48% 5/1 1 DISENGAGE 13% 24% 33% 7/1 1 ZOFELLE 14% 19% 29% 6/1 6 BAYTOWN WARRIOR 11% 33% 49% 8/1 4 REGAL GLORY 11% 27% 43% 8/1 1A GOLDEN 10% 29% 48% 9/1 5 ALWAYS SHOPPING 11% 24% 32% 8/1

RACE 2 (12:09 PM ET) // MAIDEN ($90K) RACE 9 (4:42 PM ET) // GRADE 1 METROPOLITAN ($1M) 8 RANGER FOX 21% 38% 50% 4/1 6 KNICKS GO 33% 54% 68% 2/1 7 KING JAMES 12% 28% 38% 8/1 1 MISCHEVIOUS ALEX 26% 53% 74% 3/1 6 PIPELINE 11% 19% 30% 8/1 3 SILVER STATE 15% 35% 55% 6/1 10 MACH ONE 10% 18% 25% 9/1 2 DR POST 11% 24% 45% 8/1

RACE 3 (12:47 ET) // GRADE 1 ($400K) RACE 10 (5:38 PM ET) // GRADE 1 MANHATTAN ($750K) 2 DRAIN THE CLOCK 31% 54% 63% 2/1 7 CHANNEL CAT 28% 43% 56% 5/2 6 CADDO RIVER 22% 43% 61% 7/2 6 ROCKEMPEROR 13% 27% 36% 7/1 1 NOVA RAGS 17% 35% 57% 5/1 4 DOMESTIC SPENDING 9% 29% 43% 10/1 5 TULANE TRYST 10% 22% 34% 9/1 9 GUFO 9% 15% 23% 10/1

RACE 4 (1:22 PM ET) // GRADE 2 BROOKLYN ($400K) RACE 11 (6:49 PM ET) // GRADE 1 BELMONT STAKES ($1.5M) 9 LONE ROCK 25% 57% 73% 3/1 2 ESSENTIAL QUALITY 26% 58% 75% 3/1 8 TIZAMAGICIAN 20% 30% 42% 4/1 4 HOT ROD CHARLIE 21% 31% 44% 4/1 6 MORETTI 13% 30% 48% 7/1 3 ROMBAUER 14% 31% 50% 6/1 5 MUSICAL HEART 13% 23% 36% 7/1 6 KNOWN AGENDA 14% 24% 38% 6/1

RACE 5 (2:01 PM ET) // GRADE 1 ACORN ($500K) RACE 12 (7:34 PM ET) // ALLOWANCE ($80K) 6 SEARCH RESULTS 33% 54% 68% 2/1 11 MY LIPS ARE SEALED 18% 34% 36% 9/2 3 MISS BRAZIL 26% 53% 74% 3/1 9 PANDAMOM 15% 27% 36% 6/1 4 DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE 15% 35% 55% 6/1 12 OK HONEY 14% 27% 36% 6/1 1 TRAVEL COLUMN 11% 24% 45% 8/1 2 RUNAWAY RUMOUR 11% 25% 42% 8/1

RACE 6 (2:41 PM ET) // GRADE 1 ($400K) RACE 13 (8:05 ET) // ALLOWANCE ($94K) 4 FAST BOAT 23% 36% 49% 7/2 2 HARD LOVE 19% 46% 54% 9/2 6 BOUND FOR NOWHERE 18% 28% 40% 9/2 3 MICROSECOND 15% 27% 43% 6/1 8 GREGORIAN 12% 21% 38% 8/1 1A VALUE ENGINEERING 13% 27% 35% 7/1 5 GREYES CREEK 8% 21% 27% 12/1 9 OPRY 11% 21% 26% 8/1

RACE 7 (3:18 PM ET) // GRADE 1 PHIPPS ($500K) 2 VALIANCE 29% 52% 70% 5/2 5 SHEDARESTHEDEVIL 24% 44% 61% 3/1 3 LETRUSKA 11% 25% 38% 8/1 6 WATER WHITE 11% 15% 28% 8/1

1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 8 BELMONT STAKES WAGERING FACTS

Below are some informative wagering tidbits from past Belmont Stakes.

WIN-PLACE-SHOW ODDS LAST 10 FAVORITES (Last 20 Years, Odds to $1) Year Horse Odds Fin. Win Odds: Average: 13.47-to-1 2020 Tiz the Law 4-5 WON High: 70.25-to-1 (, 2002) 2019 Tacitus 9-5 2nd Low: .75-to-1 (, 2015) 2018 Justify 4-5 WON Notable: 3 of the last 6 winners were 4-to-5 or less, including 2017 5-2 2nd Tiz the Law a year ago. 2016 Exaggerator 7-5 11th 2015 American Pharoah 3-5 WON Place Odds: Average: 8.77-to-1 2014 4-5 4th High: 28-to-1 (Commissioner, 2014) 2013 2-1 3rd Low: 1.95-to-1 (Tacitus, 2019) 2012 5-2 7th Notable: The favorite has finished 2nd twice in the last 4 years 2011 5-2 6th (Tacitus, 2019; Irish War Cry, 2017). HIGHEST-PRICED SUPERFECTA FINISHERS Show Odds: Average: 12.75-to-1 (Last 20 Years, Odds to $1) High: 34.25-to-1 (Anak Nakal, 2008) Odds Horse Year Fin. Low: 1.00-to-1 (, 2003) 70.25 Sarava 2002 WON Notable: Orb in 2013 was the last Belmont favorite to finish third. 38.50 Da’Tara 2008 WON 36.00 2004 WON EXACTA PAYOFFS 34.25 Anak Nakal 2008 3rd/DH (Last 20 years, $2 Payoffs) 28.75 Ready’s Echo 2008 3rd/DH Average: $295.33 28.00 Commissioner 2014 2nd High: $2454.00 (Sarava-Medaglia d’Oro, 2002) Low: $13.60 (American Pharoah-, 2015) BEATEN KENTUCKY DERBY FAVORITES IN BELMONT (LAST 35 YEARS) Notable: 5 of the last 6 Belmont Stakes $2 exactas have paid Year Horse Odds Fin. $96 or less. 2020 Tiz the Law* 4-5 (fav) WON 2003 2-1 WON TRIFECTA PAYOFFS 2001 6-5 (fav) WON (Last 20 years, $1 Payoffs) 1993 5-2 (fav) DNF Average: $1413.22 1991 4-1 WON High: $12,504.50 (Sarava-Medaglia d’Oro-Sunday Break, 2002) 1989 8-5 WON Low: $54.75 (American Pharoah-Frosted-, 2015) --2021, Essential Quality, Derby favorite (4th) Notable: The $1 trifecta has paid $1000 or more in 6 of the last *--Belmont held before Derby 20 years. 2019 & 2020 BELMONT HANDLE (IN MILLIONS) SUPERFECTA PAYOFFS Bet 2019 2020 (Last 20 years, $1 Payoffs) WPS: $17.3 $12.0 Average: $10,134.24 Trifecta: $10.6 $6.4 High: $72,667 (Sarava-Medaglia d’Oro-Sunday Break- Exacta: $9.9 $6.5 , 2002) Super: $6.4 $3.7 Low: $285 (American Pharoah-Frosted-Keen Ice-Mubtaahij, 2015) Pick 4: $3.6 $1.2 Average Odds of Fourth-place finishers: 10.86-to-1 Pick 6: $1.6 $685K Notable: 6 of the last 8 Belmont superfectas paid $1000 or more.

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1/ST BET // Conditions Apply. Visit https://www.xpressbet.com/belmont-stakes-promotion for full Terms & Conditions. Must be 18 or older (21 in AL, AZ, IA, IN, KS, NH, ND, WA) to open an account with 1/ST and live in a state where such activity is legal. Void where prohibited. National Gambling Support Line 800.522.4700. BELMONT STAKES GRADE 1 - $1,500,000 3YO – 1 1/2 MILES (DIRT) KNOWN AGENDA, EDDIE OLCZYK’S SPOT PLAYS ESSENTIAL QUALITY STAND TALL 1/ST and NBC handicapper Eddie Olczyk brings momentum into Belmont By , @brentmusburger Stakes Day after winning Monday’s Xpressbet Santa Anita Challenge ANALYSIS: With no Triple Crown possibility, the Belmont Stakes has a very different feel. Handicapping Tournament.He turns his It is a race for true racing fans – and true horseplayers. Everybody who is still interested in attention Saturday on Belmont for a trio of key plays. Follow Edzo’s plays each betting the race is a wise guy. There are only eight horses in the race – and only one that was a week – only with 1/ST and Xpressbet! winner his last time out. That was ROMBAUER, who delivered at 11-1 in the Preakness. Recent history says Preakness horses – winners and losers – don’t do well in the Belmont. The only Race 3 // Grade 1 Woody Stephens exceptions since 2006 were American Pharoah and Justify, and I don’t see any horse like #4 Dream Shake (5-2 ML) those in this 3-year-old crop. ESSENTIAL QUALITY is a deserving favorite, largely because he He should get a golden trip with the was undefeated before he finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby. Two of his victories came speed of Drain the Clock, Jackie’s Warrior and Caddo River all battling for the front. as a precocious 2-year-old in Grade 1 races. KNOWN AGENDA (Florida Derby) and ROCK Look for him to break, settle, sit behind YOUR WORLD () also have Grade 1 success on their past performances, the speed and make a run. Win bet. and that is not to be ignored this weekend. Being sired by Curlin, Known Agenda appears to be bred for the 12 furlongs. Rock Your World figures to set the early pace, so he may Race 9 // Grade 1 Metropolitan try to become only the fourth horse this century to lead the Belmont from gate to wire. #1 Mischevious Alex (5-2 ML) The speed of the race is Knicks Go, but he’s run 1-turn races on dirt only 4 MAIN CONTENDERS: KNOWN AGENDA never had a chance in the Derby after drawing times in this career – winning only the the No. 1 post position. He did about as much as he could going from 17th to finish ninth. first race of his life. This is a 1-turn race, This time he drew much more favorably in post 6. With 11 fewer horses, traffic should not so at 2-5 odds, no thanks. Mischevious be a problem, even in New York. This colt has the top Equibase speed figure among Alex can sit it the golden spot behind 3-year-old males, and he earned that 112 with his triumph in the Florida Derby. Newly the big favorite. Not sure he wants to minted Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher and reigning three-time -winning go this far, but hoping that he trips out. The price will be fair, and with the trip I jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will be ready to rumble. So start spreading the news: they can make see for him, why not? Win-place bet. it anywhere. ESSENTIAL QUALITY is poised for a big effort after his Derby disappointment that marked the only time in his six starts that he did not win. He got bumped at the start Race 13 // Grade 1 Belmont Stakes in Louisville, but the smaller field means he should have a cleaner trip on . Don’t Essential Quality is the horse to beat in forget his daddy: Tapit has sired three of the last six Belmont winners at a mile and one-half. the Belmont and I’ll key him in the exotics.

$100 Wagering Strategy: VALUE PLAYS: With so few horses, value will be hard to come by. At 6-1 on the morning • $26 Win: Essential Quality line, KNOWN AGENDA should bring it. ROMBAUER has to overcome the problem that • $5 Exacta Key-Box: Essential Quality all deep closers have at Belmont Park, and that is the short, 366-yard homestretch. The with Rombauer, Known Agenda ($20) last winner to come from more than two lengths behind at the top of the stretch was • $2 Trifecta Part-Wheel: Essential in 2009. Yet the Preakness winner should still figure into the superfecta. Quality over Rombauer, Known Agenda, Hot Rod Charlie over ALL ($36) • $1 Trifecta Part-Wheel: Rombauer, $100 WAGERING STRATEGY: Known Agenda, Hot Rod Charlie over • $50 Exacta Box: KNOWN AGENDA and ESSENTIAL QUALITY ($100) Essential Quality over ALL ($18)

TOP 4 PICKS

1. KNOWN AGENDA 3. HOT ROD CHARLIE 2. ESSENTIAL QUALITY 4. ROMBAUER

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BEWARE THE BELMONT STATS & TRENDS BELMONT WINNERS’ LAYOFFS BOUNCE-BACK (LAST 10 YEARS) By Jeremy Plonk, @HorsePlayerNow Days Horse Year 84 Tiz the Law 2020 ANALYSIS: Since swept the Triple Crown in 1978, only Easy Goer 28 Sir Winston 2019 (1989) and American Pharoah (2015) have won the Belmont Stakes as 2-year- 21 Justify 2018 35 Tapwrit 2017 old champions. It’s extremely difficult for a horse like ESSENTIAL QUALITY 35 Creator 2016 to be brilliant enough and developed at 2 to win a title, and then be sustained 21 American Pharoah 2015 and improved to win this mile and one-half test at age 3. As for the Preakness 28 2014 champion, ROMBAUER will try to become the first horse to win the final two jewels 35 2013 in the Triple Crown without competing in the Kentucky Derby since in 1922. 35 2012 History doesn’t like the chances of the Belmont Stakes’ biggest names, so I invite 35 2011 you to shop. PREAKNESS WINNERS IN BELMONT Year Horse Odds Fin. MAIN CONTENDERS: There still are positive cases to be made for ESSENTIAL ‘20 N/A QUALITY and ROMBAUER. Pedigree-wise, ESSENTIAL QUALITY fits the Belmont ‘19 7-2 9th bill. His papa Tapit has sired 3 Belmont Stakes winners and 2 runners-up just ‘18 Justify 4-5* WON since 2014. ROMBAUER picks up jockey John Velazquez, far and away the leading ‘17 Did Not Compete ‘16 Exaggerator 7-5* 11th Belmont Park active jockey (nearing 2000 local wins) and 2-time winner of the ‘15 A. Pharoah 3-5* WON final jewel. HOT ROD CHARLIE, the Kentucky Derby third-place finisher, managed ‘14 Cal. Chrome 4-5* 4th to lure Flavien Prat away from ROMBAUER. Like ESSENTIAL QUALITY, HOT ROD ‘13 Oxbow 10-1 2nd CHARLIE likely benefits from the defection of the top pace players from the Derby ‘12 Did Not Compete and Preakness. Expect him in the early hunt, along with ROCK YOUR WORLD. ‘11 6-1 5th ‘10 Did Not Compete VALUE PLAYS: The two biggest Derby disappointments were KNOWN AGENDA TAP IT IN (9th) and ROCK YOUR WORLD (17th). A Derby dud followed by a Belmont rebound Offspring of Tapit in Recent Belmont Stakes victory has been common in recent years, see Tapwrit (6th), Creator (13th), Palace Year Horse Malice (12th) and Union Rags (7th) just since 2012. KNOWN AGENDA runs out of ‘14 Tonalist WON his home stall for a Todd Pletcher barn that has 4 wins and 8 seconds all-time in ‘15 Frosted 2nd this race. ‘16 Creator WON ‘17 Tapwrit WON ‘18 Hofburg 3rd $100 WAGERING STRATEGY: ‘19 Tacitus 2nd • $80 Win: KNOWN AGENDA • $10 Exacta Box: KNOWN AGENDA and ESSENTIAL QUALITY ($20) KNOW THIS

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1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 12 BELMONT STAKES GRADE 1 - $1,500,000 3YO – 1 1/2 MILES (DIRT)

A DO-OVER BELMONT “LAST TIMES” THE LAST... FOR HORSE AND HANDICAPPER KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER TO WIN: By Jeff Siegel @jsiegelracing Justify (2018)

ANALYSIS: After the riders had dismounted and were headed back to the Churchill PREAKNESS WINNER TO WIN: Justify (2018) Downs jockeys’ room, an NBC-TV reporter was instructed to intercept Joel Rosario. The assignment was to secure an explanation for the poor performance by the Kentucky KENTUCKY DERBY RUNNER-UP TO WIN: Derby’s 9-2 second choice, unbeaten ROCK YOUR WORLD, who had never gotten Tiz the Law (2020; Belmont held first) involved at any stage of the race and wound up 17th of 19, 24 lengths behind first-place prior Empire Maker (2003) finisher Medina Spirit, the colt he had trounced in the Santa Anita Derby. Rosario was prepared to tell the TV audience that he had been completely eliminated at the break and PREAKNESS RUNNER-UP TO WIN: (1998) “had no chance.” But before his explanation could be delivered to millions of NBC viewers, the telecast time was up, the hosts signed off, and the live interview was scrubbed. Post- PREPPED LAST AT BELMONT TO WIN: race video analysis confirmed that ROCK YOUR WORLD was badly compromised at the Sir Winston (2019) break, but did the poor start amount to 24 lengths of trouble? The correct answer is a key component to successfully handicapping the third jewel in racing’s Triple Crown. JOCKEY TO WIN BACK-TO-BACK: Laffit Pincay, Jr. 1982-’84 three-peat on , and . MAIN CONTENDERS: Tesla drivers can go from zero-to-60 in a matter of seconds. ROCK YOUR WORLD is no Tesla. Even if he breaks well, it takes him several strides to JOCKEY TO WIN HIS DEBUT: approach full speed, leaving him vulnerable to being shuffled back and losing valuable Manny Franco (2020 Tiz the Law) early position, especially in a large field. But in the marathon Belmont Stakes, few of the entrants will be sent hard from the bell, which should enable the John Sadler-trained colt TRAINER TO WIN BACK-TO-BACK: to get to where he needs to be before the field hits the clubhouse turn. At that point, D. Wayne Lukas (1994-‘96) three-peat with , Thunder and if not sooner, he’s liable to encounter fellow West Coaster HOT ROD CHARLIE, who most Editor’s Note likely will be employing identical, pace-setting/pressing tactics. Though neither has to have it, both colts prefer the lead, and whichever one is quick enough to secure the role TRAINER TO WIN HIS DEBUT: as the controlling speed will have gained a significant advantage. ESSENTIAL QUALITY Mark Casse (2019 Sir Winston) has had five weeks to refresh, is thoroughly genuine, and is certain to attract plenty of play. The question is, how much further development does he have? TO WIN: (2007) The thoroughly impressive victory in the Preakness by ROMBAUER VALUE PLAYS: FILLY TO COMPETE: should not be underestimated. The Michael McCarthy-trained ROMBAUER had Unlimited Budget (2013, 6th) done little in six previous starts to expect such as a superior Pimlico performance, but it happened, and it could happen again. GELDING TO WIN: Ruler On Ice (2011), prior to that Crème Fraiche (1985) $100 WAGERING STRATEGY:

• $40 Win: ROCK YOUR WORLD ($40) WIRE-TO-WIRE WINNER: • $10 Exacta Box: ROCK YOUR WORLD, HOT ROD CHARLIE, ROMBAUER ($60) Justify (2018)

TOP 4 PICKS

1. ROCK YOUR WORLD 3. ROMBAUER 2. HOT ROD CHARLIE 4. ESSENTIAL QUALITY

1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 13 XBTV BELMONT STAKES WORKOUT ANALYSIS By Milie Ball & Michelle Yu

HORSE DATE TRACK DISTANCE TIME ROMBAUER 5/28 BEL 4F :50.01 (53/86) MICHELLE YU: A very Rombauer-like work for his final pre-Belmont move, in company on the outside of a ($30K claiming runner-up That Quality). He was not asked down the stretch until after they crossed the wire, where he was able to pull away. His mate was restrained down the lane, but not persevered with for the big gallop-out where Rombauer went all the way to the backside. Though not as visually impressive as his pre-Preakness work, it doesn’t seem like he needs as much with just a three-week rest in-between. Now has the benefit of a work over Big Sandy.

KNOWN AGENDA 5/28 BEL 5F 1:01.12 (1/12) MILLIE BALL: Known Agenda looks to be coming into the race hitting on all four cylinders. In 2007, I asked trainer Todd Pletcher shortly after Rags to Riches won the Belmont stakes what the key ingredients are to winning this race. He replied, “A horse that will turn off and is an obvious stayer.” Curlin, beaten a head by the filly that year, also shared those qualities and has passed them onto his son, Known Agenda. He appeared as relaxed as they come in his latest work, May 28. He travelled smoothly over the Belmont surface, even when dealing with the unplanned situation of catching up to team of workers and having to split them. Pletcher put Known Agenda inside of an older horse, Dr Post, who ran second in last year’s Belmont. Known Agenda finished his work well in that morning’s bullet. He is a horse that will turn off and strikes me as an obvious stayer.

HOT ROD CHARLIE 5/22 SA 5F 1:01.60 (29/59) MILLIE BALL: From a visual standpoint, Hot Rod Charlie appeared equally as push-button and smooth in his work on the morning of May 22 as he did in his breeze the week prior to the Kentucky Derby. Jockey Flavien Prat piloted the colt on both occasions. His key pre-Derby workout was held about 30 minutes prior to the first race at Santa Anita, so the track was considerably tighter and the colt’s adrenaline would have heightened slightly with the change in routine. He was slightly more up in the bridle in his pre-Derby work, and a bit handier while needing less effort to leave his company on the gallop-out. On the morning of May 22, the dirt was on the deeper side, evident by the fact that only 1 horse out of 59 that worked five furlongs stopped the clock in less than a minute! It’s been a while since we’ve seen a Santa Anita-trained horse come up short in a Grade 1 across the country due to fitness. I’m confident he will run his race.

ROCK YOUR WORLD 5/21 SA 5F 1:01.20 (15/29) MICHELLE YU: Rock Your World was eager to get going in this five-furlong drill in company. By catching his target super early on in the work, he caused his rider to put on the brakes. Going around the turn, he was under a steady hold, but drew up alongside despite that. Down the lane, he maintained his position while the mate was ridden along, and the SA Derby winner opened up nearly a length immediately when lightly roused. Good work, but would have liked to see him pull away more on the gallop-out. Though, to be fair, he was in classy company today with multiple Grade 3-winning veteran Campaign.

Video provided by XBTV, the home of the latest workouts, analysis and more this Triple Crown Season and every other race day of the year.

1/ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 14 BELMONT STAKES EXPERT PICKS

We tasked our expert racing analysts across the 1/ST family to provide their selections for this year’s third jewel in the Triple Crown.

JEFF JOHN MICHELLE NAOMI SIEGEL DESANTIS YU TUKKER @jsiegelracing @XBJohnnyD @themichelleyu @NaomiTukker

ROCK YOUR WORLD ESSENTIAL QUALITY HOT ROD CHARLIE HOT ROD CHARLIE HOT ROD CHARLIE HOT ROD CHARLIE KNOWN AGENDA ROCK YOUR WORLD ROMBAUER ROCK YOUR WORLD ROMBAUER ESSENTIAL QUALITY ESSENTIAL QUALITY KNOWN AGENDA ESSENTIAL QUALITY ROMBAUER

JEREMY TOM MILLIE RON PLONK QUIGLEY BALL NICOLETTI @Horseplayernow @quigleys_corner @camillayakteen @ronic17

KNOWN AGENDA ESSENTIAL QUALITY KNOWN AGENDA ROCK YOUR WORLD ESSENTIAL QUALITY KNOWN AGENDA HOT ROD CHARLIE KNOWN AGENDA HOT ROD CHARLIE ROCK YOUR WORLD ESSENTIAL QUALITY ROMBAUER ROCK YOUR WORLD ROMBAUER ROCK YOUR WORLD ESSENTIAL QUALITY

CLAUDIA MATT ZOE JON SPADARO DINERMAN CADMAN WHITE @claudiaspadaro @3coltshandicap @zoecadman @PostTimeJon

ESSENTIAL QUALITY ROCK YOUR WORLD ROCK YOUR WORLD ESSENTIAL QUALITY KNOWN AGENDA ESSENTIAL QUALITY ROMBAUER ROCK YOUR WORLD HOT ROD CHARLIE ROMBAUER ESSENTIAL QUALITY HOT ROD CHARLIE ROMBAUER HOT ROD CHARLIE FRANCE GO DE INA ROMBAUER

PETER DUSTIN GEORGE EDDIE LURIE FABIAN ORTUZAR OLCZYK @Peterlurievo @1STBET @georgeortuzar @1STBET

ESSENTIAL QUALITY HOT ROD CHARLIE HOT ROD CHARLIE ESSENTIAL QUALITY KNOWN AGENDA ROCK YOUR WORLD ROCK YOUR WORLD ROMBAUER HOT ROD CHARLIE ESSENTIAL QUALITY ROMBAUER KNOWN AGENDA ROMBAUER KNOWN AGENDA ESSENTIAL QUALITY HOT ROD CHARLIE

1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 15 BELMONT STAKES NEED-TO-KNOW

RACE DATE: SATURDAY, JUNE 5 ENTRIES/POST POSITION DRAW: TUESDAY, JUNE 1 FIRST RACE POST TIME: 11:35 A.M. ET BELMONT STAKES POST TIME: 6:49 P.M. ET WATCH FREE AND WAGER: ALL RACES ON 1/ST BET APP & XPRESSBET.COM TELEVISION: NBC SPORTS, 3-5 PM ET; NBC 5-7 PM ET WAGERING NOTES: BELMONT GOLD CUP/BELMONT STAKES DAILY DOUBLE (FRI/SAT)

BELMONT DAY STAKES LINEUP Grade 1 Belmont Stakes $1,500,000 3YO 1-1/2 miles Grade 1 Metropolitan $1,000,000 3&UP 1 mile Grade 1 Manhattan Stakes $750,000 3&UP 1-1/4 miles (turf) Grade 1 $500,000 4&UP FM 1-1/16 miles Grade 1 Just A Game $500,000 4&UP FM 1 mile (turf) Grade 1 Acorn $500,000 3YO F 1 mile Grade 1 Woody Stephens $400,000 3YO 7 furlongs Grade 1 Jaipur $400,000 3&UP 6 furlongs (turf) Grade 2 Brooklyn $400,000 4&UP 1-1/2 miles

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