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June5/2021 Belmont Stakes Wager Guide Belmont Park

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June5/2021 Belmont Stakes Wager Guide Belmont Park 1/ST BET // WAGER GUIDE BELMONT STAKES JUNE5/2021 BELMONT PARK BELMONT STAKES POST POSITIONS FRANCE GO DE INA BOURBONIC (15/1) Owner: Calumet Farm (30/1) Trainer: Todd Pletcher Owner: Yuji Inaida 1 Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche 5 Trainer: Hideyuki Mori Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. ESSENTIAL QUALITY KNOWN AGENDA (6/1) (2/1) Owner: St. Elias Stable Owner: Godolphin Trainer: Todd Pletcher 2 Trainer: Brad Cox 6 Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Jockey: Luis Saez ROCK YOUR WORLD ROMBAUER (3/1) (9/2) Owner: John & Diane Fradkin Owner: Hronis Racing & David 3 Trainer: Mike McCarthy 7 Michael Talla Jockey: John Velazquez Trainer: John Sadler Jockey: Joel Rosario HOT ROD CHARLIE (7/2) Owner: Roadrunner Racing, OVERTOOK (2O/1) Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Boat Racing, Strauss Bros. Stable & Coolmore Racing & Gainesway 4 8 Trainer: Todd Pletcher Trainer: Doug O’Neill Jockey: Manny Franco Jockey: Flavien Prat Odds listed are Belmont Park morning line odds. 1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 2 MEET THE BELMONT CONTENDERS By Johnny D., @XBJohnnyD ROMBAUER: The Preakness winner will have a new jockey in the Belmont Stakes. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, who rode Medina Spirit across the finish first at the Kentucky Derby and to a third-place finish in Preakness, will replace Flavien Prat, who piloted this son of Twirling Candy to a Baltimore upset. Prat will re-mount Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Hot Rod Charlie for a shot at Belmont success. No official word on why the saddle switch, but an educated guess is that Prat may have committed his Belmont services to Hot Rod Charlie’s connections immediately after the Derby and before the surprising Preakness triumph. In any case, it’s impossible not to be impressed with Rombauer’s dominant Preakness performance. At Pimlico, Rombauer raced within striking distance of the early leaders without being urged and then finished with gusto and attitude. That’s a great running style for the Belmont. Can he immediately repeat in the Belmont what was a lifetime-best effort at much less odds than the nearly 12-1 he was in the Preakness? HOT ROD CHARLIE: As expected, this colt ran well at 5.60-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby to finish third, beaten just one length. In keeping with the colt’s longer break between races in 2021 (six and seven weeks), connections decided to skip the Preakness and aim for the Belmont Stakes with five weeks’ rest. All systems seem ‘go’ as the colt has trained well in the interim. This son of Oxbow out of an Indian Charlie mare didn’t close much ground on leaders through the Churchill stretch, but he didn’t lose any either. Ultimately, the Louisiana Derby winner denied Kentucky Derby favorite Essential Quality’s rallying bid for third in Louisville. This colt has shown speed in the past and probably will be forwardly placed in the Belmont Stakes. ESSENTIAL QUALITY: The Kentucky Derby favorite could manage a mere fourth-place finish, but he ran well despite losing ground. He was bothered at the start, recovered, raced wide and closed well in the lane. The lost ground certainly affected his final placing, but he effectively had dead aim on Hot Rod Charlie and couldn’t pass him in the lane for third. Under the care of 2020 Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox, last season’s 2-year-old champion worked a solid five furlongs at Churchill Downs for his penultimate Belmont morning move. The son of Tapit has displayed a versatile style in previous races, and that will come in handy in New York where, contrary to popular opinion, it’s best to be closer to the early pace than to attempt to rally from a distant zip code. KNOWN AGENDA: The Curlin Florida Derby winner started as fourth choice in the Kentucky Derby, at contender’s odds of nearly 10-1. He finished a disappointing ninth. Although he about split the field, he had no real excuse. Neither jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. nor trainer Todd Pletcher had any explanation for the colt’s somewhat dull Derby effort and will give him another shot in what amounts to a ‘home game’ at Belmont Park. If you draw a line through his Kentucky Derby non- effort – and it should be noted, this colt has ‘phoned it in’ before and immediately bounced back – his Florida Derby form fits in the Belmont. Not a particularly good work horse, he’s a little guy who has been able to put it all together for three victories in seven starts. 1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 3 1/ST BET // BET THE BELMONT $10 CREDIT+$500 BONUS • FAST, EASY WAGERING • AI PICKS + CUSTOMIZE YOUR HANDICAPPING • HD VIDEO & REPLAYS SIGN UP PROMO CODE: SPORTOFKINGS THE OFFICIAL APP OF: PREAKNESS // PIMLICO // LAUREL PARK // SANTA ANITA GULFSTREAM PARK // GOLDEN GATE FIELDS // PEGASUS WORLD CUP Promotional offer valid through 12/31/2021. Open to new 1/ST signups only. Customer will receive $10 wagering credit after signup. Additional wagering credits will be deposited in $10 increments for every $100 wagered within 30 days of sign up. To qualify for full $500 wagering credit, new account holders must wager $5,000 within 30 calendar days of sign up. Wagers that are refunded or cancelled will not be counted as eligible wa- gers. Promotional wagering credits will be deposited by 1/ST into your account within five business days of reaching each $10 increment. Wagering credits are different from cash, and cannot be transferred, redeemed or withdrawn. Unused wagering credits will be withdrawn 30 days after they are deposited. Must be 18 or older (21 in AL, AZ, IA, IN, KS, NH, ND, WA) to open an account with 1/ST BET and reside in a state where such activity is legal. Void where prohibited. Cannot be combined with any other offer. National Gambling Support Line 800.522.4700. HANDICAP THE BELMONT LIKE EDDIE OLCZYK ? DID YOU KNOW? The 1/ST BET app uses more than 50 factors in evaluating each horse in a race, drawing from a library of more than 200,000 previous races to match past success with future success. 1/ST BET automatically matches and ranks the proven, most successful factors in each race, while Similar to this year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, we asked renowned it also gives you the ability to select 1/ST and NBC handicapper Eddie Olczyk which handicapping angles he applies your own set of factors to make when analyzing the Belmont Stakes. Now, for the first time, you can reconstruct personalized, artificial intelligence- Edzo’s Belmont Stakes approach and put it to work for yourself by combining based selections in mere seconds. forces with the 1/ST BET app. “Almost everything for me when it comes to the Belmont Stakes zeroes in on the mile and one-half distance,” Olczyk explained. “You certainly have to realize there are limitations and restrictions for some horses who simply can’t get the distance. Past running lines, running style and breeding can tell us the most.” BREEDING MATTERS 1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY Eddie leans heavily on pedigree in the Belmont, and the 1/ST BET algorithm DISTANCE PEDIGREE RATING could not agree more. How important is pedigree to the Belmont? Consider: DIRT PEDIGREE RATING Top 1/ST BET Belmont Stakes Distance Pedigree Ratings • 2020 Tiz the Law WON • 2017 Tapwrit WON • 2016 Creator WON FINISHING ABILITY 1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY As the longest Triple Crown race by 440 yards, horses with an ability to finish LAST LATE PACE strong over the previously shorter distances are coveted. That’s not necessarily AVG. LAST 3 LATE PACE come-from-behind horses, but rather those who have a sustained late kick LAST TURN TIME from any spot in the race. The factors here lean less toward the early (E1, E2) AVG. LAST 3 TURN TIMES pace of the Derby and Preakness and more to those who can sustain it. Overall AVG. BEST 2 OF LAST 3 SPEED speed is still important, but given we’ve seen so many poor Derby performances improved upon at Belmont, give a horse a mulligan for a poor showing. EXTRA POINTS 1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY “Past experience at Belmont Park can be a decider when choosing between BEST SPEED TODAY’S TRACK evenly-matched horses who never raced at Belmont versus ones who have,” AVG. EARNINGS TODAY’S TRACK Olczyk said. “Good Belmont experience gets some preference on the horse- BEST SPEED OFF TRACK for-course if runners are of similar ability.” And, always prepare for an off track. MUD PEDIGREE RATING 1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 5 Final point: The 1/ST BET app’s factors allow you to adjust your considerations in mere seconds as the day unfolds. “Flexibility is key to being a good horseplayer,” Olczyk said. “On Derby Day, you watch Jackie’s Warrior run off in the Pat Day Mile and not stop even after blazing fractions, and it becomes more obvious that you want to be near the front in the Derby. And that’s exactly how it played out.” FACTORS THROUGH HISTORY BELMONT STAKES 2017-2020 We searched the 1/ST BET archives to re-examine the last five editions of the Belmont Stakes. See where the winners ranked best in their respective fields in terms of handicapping factors, and look for those commonalities with this year’s runners when using the 1/ST BET app to handicap the final jewel in the Triple Crown. Learn more. 2020 2018 2017 WINNER: TIZ THE LAW WINNER: JUSTIFY WINNER: TAPWRIT RANKED 1ST IN 13 CATEGORIES RANKED FIRST IN 28 FACTORS RANKED FIRST IN 5 FACTORS AVG.
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    BIRDSTONE b, 2001 height 15.3 Dosage (7-8-9-0-2); DI: 3.00; CD: 0.69 See gray pages—Polynesian RACE AND (STAKES) RECORD Fappiano, 1977 Mr. Prospector, by Raise a Native Age Starts 1st 2nd 3rd Earned 17s, SW, $370,213 2 3 2(1) 0 0 $339,000 Unbridled, 1987 410 f, 48 SW, 4.40 AEI Killaloe, by Dr. Fager 3 6 3(2) 0 0 $1,236,600 24s, SW, $4,489,475 566 f, 49 SW, 2.65 AEI Gana Facil, 1981 Le Fabuleux, by Wild Risk Totals 9 5(3) 0 0 $1,575,600 Grindstone, dkb/br, 1993 19s, wnr, $85,100 7 f, 6 r, 5 w, 2 SW Charedi, by In Reality Won At 2 6s, SW, $1,224,510 Champagne S (gr. I, $500,000, 8.5f in 1:44.05, by 554 f, 21 SW, 1.12 AEI Drone, 1966 Sir Gaylord, by Turn-to 2½, dftg. Chapel Royal, Dashboard Drummer, 7.38 AWD 4s, wnr, $12,825 Paddington, Notorious Rogue, Read the Footnotes, Buzz My Bell, 1981 592 f, 54 SW, 2.23 AEI Cap and Bells, by Tom Fool 13s, SW, $223,295 Midnight Express). 11 f, 10 r, 8 w, 3 SW Chateaupavia, 1966 Chateaugay, by Swaps A maiden special weight race at Sar ($45,000, 6f in 42s, wnr, $36,280 1:10.32, by 12½, dftg. Bold Love, Hornshope, etc.). 12 f, 11 r, 8 w, 1 SW Glenpavia, by Pavot Won At 3 Northern Dancer, 1961 Nearctic, by Nearco Belmont S (gr.
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