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Home , Marist Poll, Michael Bloomberg

air date March 3 2007 y The WNBC/Marist Poll is a collaboration between WNBC TV and the Marist Institute for Public Opinion at . The WNBC/Marist Poll lets you know what people in the tristate area and across the nation think about the Trendbreakers latest topics from politics to lifestyles. The poll has a track record for accuracy and independence. It provides a regular Trendbreakers is a new show that spotlights the latest poll measure of the public pulse and is a source for the hottest trends. numbers and the people and the stories behind them. y Through the regular public release of Marist Poll y The show’s first guest, Bill Cunningham, discussed the surveys, the Marist Institute for Public Opinion (MIPO) at 2008 president ia l campaign, the candidates and thiheir Marist College has built a legacy of independence, reliability chances. Cunningham is a long time political insider and and accuracy. Frequently cited by journalists, public is now the managing director of Dan Klores officials, and policy experts, the Marist Poll has been Communications. He was instrumental in making recognized for fairness, accuracy, and timeliness. Its results businessman Michael Bloomberg City Mayor are featured in print and electronic media throughout the Bloomberg. The discussion included the possibility of a world. MIPO also provides educational opportunities for presidential run by Mayor Michael Bloomberg. students and is a public resource for information on survey y Dr. Irwin Redlener, Associate Dean at the Mailman methodology through internships, conferences, seminars School of at and and coursework. President of the Children’s Health Fund, joined Lee and y The WNBC/Marist Poll is directed by Dr. Lee M. Miringoff Barbara to discuss the 20th anniversary of the Children's and Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho. Lee received his Ph.D . in Health Fund and health care for kids. Dr. Redlener is the political science from the Institute of author of Americans at Risk: Why We Are Not Prepared Technology. He directs the Marist Institute for Public for Megadisasters and What We Can Do. Opinion and is President of the National Council of Public y Dana Dickey, Conde Nast Traveler’s editor at Polls (NCPP). Lee is a frequent commentator on politics large, shared some advice to those planning a travel and ppgolling. Barbara received her Ph.D. in Political Science escape, including hot European destinations. from and directs the Marist Poll in addition to numerous public surveys on elections, public policy, and community issues. She is Secretary/Treasurer of the National Council of Public Polls (NCPP). y Political Trendline Democratic Primary y If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary were held The votes won’t be cast for another ten months but today, whom would you support if the candidates are: it is already a very lively campaign, especially for New Yorkers. In the most recent WNBC/Marist 37% Poll of registered voters nationwide, Hillary Clinton and are their party’s 17% frontrunners. 11% y Among potential Democratic primary voters Al Gore 11% Democratic Primary nationwide, Hillary Clinton leads her rivals for the Potential Voters Other 7% nomination with 37%. Barack Obama is now in MOE ± 4.5% second place with 17% and John Edwards and Al Undecided 17% Gore each follow with 11%. Trailing with 2% or less are , , Wesley Clark, Al 0% 25% 50% Sharpton, , , and Chris Consider Hillary? Dodd. Thinking about the 2008 presidential elections, would y But, if Hillary survives the primary season, she you definitely consider voting for Hillary faces a tough audience for the general election. 43% Clinton, possibly consider voting for Hillary Clinton, or would you definitely not consider voting for Hillary of voters across the country say they won’t even Clinton? consider voting for her as president of the United Definitely Unsure States. 2% Definitely not consider consider 43% 25%

Registered Voters Possibly consider ± MOE 3.5% 30% y On the Republican side of the aisle, former Republican Primary Mayor Rudy Giuliani is the frontrunner with 28% If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held and Senator John McCain is in second place with today, whom would you support if the candidates are: 21%. Former Congressman follows with 11%, and former Massachusetts Rudy Giuliani 28% garners 10%. A field of nine other potential Republican presidential contenders John McCain 21% trail. Newt Gingrich 11% y When Republicans hear that Rudy has taken pro‐ Republican Primary choice, pro‐, and pro‐gay rights Mitt Romney 10% Potential Voters stands, 32% say it’s a major factor in deciding MOE ± 5% their vote. Almost half of Republicans say they Other 8% are less likely to vote for Giuliani because of these Undecided 22% positions. 0% 25% 50% GOP and Rudy’s Past Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani is a pro‐ Rudy’s Positions and the Republican Vote choice, pro‐gun control, pro‐gay rights Republican. Does the fact that Rudy Giuliani has these positions Would the fact that Rudy Giuliani has these positions be make you more or less likely to vote for him? a major factor, a minor factor, or not a factor in deciding if you would vote for Rudy Giuliani? No More likely difference 36% Not a factor MjMajor fftactor 16% 28% 32%

Republicans Republicans ± MOE ± 6% Minor factor Less likely MOE 6% 40% 48% y If Senator Clinton and Mayor Giuliani lose their bid for the White House, the 2008 Presidential President Bloomberg?

election could still be historic. All of the top tier If the 2008 presidential election were held candidates including Obama, Edwards, McCain today, whom would you support if the candidates are: and Romney would be a break from tradition. y Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani would be the first New York politicians since FDR to win. Hillary Clinton 43% y The show’s first guest, Bill Cunningham, discussed each of the candidates and their chances. Rudy Giuliani 41% Cunningham is a long time polllitical insider and is now the managing director of Dan Klores Michael Bloomberg 7% Communications. He was instrumental in making Registered Voters businessman Michael Bloomberg New York City Undecided 9% MOE ± 3.5% Mayor Bloomberg. y The discussion included the possibility of a 0% 25% 50% presidential run by Mayor Michael Bloomberg. y In a three‐way race for the presidency nationwide, Hillary Clinton receives 43%, Rudy Giuliani has 41%, and Michael Bloomberg trails with only 7%. y Health Trendline Health Care for Kids y A WNBC/Marist Poll was conducted with people in the Overall, do you feel the health and medical care available New York Metropolitan region including Northern New for children in your community is more than enough, about the right amount, or not enough to meet the health and medical Jersey and . care needs of children in your community? y 35% told us there are not enough health care options for More than enough children where they live. Almost one in five parents say Unsure 21% 11% it’s hard to find someone or someplace within their community to get advice when their child is sick including 27% of African American, Hispanic, or Asian families. y Despite state efforts to provide health care for kids, the U.S. Census estimates 10 percent of kids in our area are Not enough without health insurance. Not surprisingly, most people 35% About the right would like to see this become a major issue in the 2008 amount Residents MOE ± 5% presidential campaign. 33% y Dr. Irwin Redlener, Associate Dean at the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University and President of Hard to Find Care the Children’s Health Fund discussed this pressing issue. Is it very difficult, difficult, not very difficult, or not difficult at all to find someone or some place in your community to go to when your children are sick or you need advice Campaign 2008 about their health?

Do you think making health care more affordable for children 50% should be a major campaign issue, a minor campaign issue, or not 25% a campaign issue in the 2008 presidential campaign? 27% Not 18% Minor 7% Major 15% 78% 0% Very difficult/Difficult Under $50,000 Non‐white Parents

Residents MOE ± 5% y Travel Trendline Taking a Break? y This WNBC/Marist Poll of people in the New York Do you plan on taking a vacation in the next few months before Metropolitan region including Northern New summer? Jersey and Connecticut asked people about their No travel plans. As it turns out, many of them are not Yes 63% waiting for summer to get away. 37% y 37% tell us they’re taking a break in the next few months and most of them are looking to escape the Residents MOE ± 5% winter chill and find a warmer reception when they arrive at their destination. Dream Destination y If money were no object, Europe still captures the If money were not a concern, would you most like to visit: imagination for 35% as their dream vacation, while nearly one in five would like to explore right here in Europe 35% the . y Dana Dickey,k Conded Nast Traveler’sl’ editord at Anotherh state in US 19% large, joined Lee and Barbara to share some advice to those planning a travel escape. Australia 15% Sun or Snow? Which of the following best describes the climate where you are Africa 12% planning to go, is it:

Colder Asia 10% Residents Same Warmer 4% MOE ± 5% 20% 76% South America 7%

The North or South pole 2% Residents MOE ± 5% 0% 20% 40% y Food Favorite Fast Food Showdown y Pollsters don’t just talk politics. We pitted If you had to choose, which fast food do you like more: hamburgers against hot dogs to see which is more

popular. Hotdogs Hamburgers y 25% And, it seems the hamburger is the most appetizing 75% choice. 75% of those we polled selected hamburgers, while only one‐fourth, 25%, picked the hot dog. y When given a third option, pizza, the results played Residents MOE ± 5% out much differently. Pizza came in first with 64%, hamburgers took second place with 25% and the hot dog trailed with only 11%. And the Winner is…

If you had to choose, which fast food do you like most:

Hotdogs 11% Pizza 64% Hamburgers 25%

Residents MOE ± 5% y Believe It Or Not y Italian food is the top choice of restaurant When you go out to eat in a restaurant, is your favorite kind of goers, 38% say it’s number one. food: y 32% of people in our area would like to travel to Italian 38% outer space. American 16%

Would you like to travel to outer space? Chinese 11%

Yes Japanese 8% 32% Indian 6%

Thai 4% No Residents 68% Greek 3% MOE ± 5% French 3% Residents MOE ± 5% Or something else? 11%

0% 20% 40% y How the Surveys Were Conducted y The national WNBC/Marist Poll was conducted y The WNBC/Marist Poll in the New York February 12th through February 15th, 2007. 1,219 Metropolitan region including Northern New adults 18 years of age or older within the Jersey and Connecticut was conducted February 21st continental United States were interviewed by and February 22nd, 2007. 43403 adults 18 years of age telephone. Telephone numbers were selected based or older within the region were interviewed by upon a list of telephone exchanges from telephone. Telephone numbers were selected based throughout the nation. The exchanges were upon a list of telephone exchanges from selected to ensure that each region was represented throughout the region. The exchanges were in ppproportion to its pppopulation. The results of the selected to ensure that each area was represented entire survey are statistically significant at in proportion to its population. The results of the ±3%. There are 978 registered voters including 331 entire survey are statistically significant at Democrats, 277 Republicans, and 342 independent ±5%. The margin for error increases for cross‐ voters. The results for registered voters are tabulations. statistically significant at ±3.5%. Independent voters were asked a follow‐up question to ascertain whether they lean towards either the Democratic or Republican party. There are 471 Democrats and Democratic leaning independents and 367 Republicans and Republican leaning independents. The results for the Democratic and Republican primary sub‐samples, which include independent voters who lean toward a political party, are statistically significant at ±4.5% and ±5%, respectively. The margin for error increases for cross‐tabulations.