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Biden Holds Steady, Warren Slips As the Iowa Caucuses Approach
ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: 2020 Democrats EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 12:01 a.m. Sunday, Jan. 26, 2020 Biden Holds Steady, Warren Slips As the Iowa Caucuses Approach Joe Biden’s holding his ground in preference nationally for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, with Bernie Sanders close by and a drop in support for Elizabeth Warren. Two new arrivals to the leaderboard come next in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll: Mike Bloomberg and Andrew Yang. With the Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses drawing near, 77 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents nationally say they’re satisfied with their choice of candidates. Far fewer, 24 percent, are very satisfied, although that’s near the average in ABC/Post polls since 2000. This poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds plenty of room for movement: Just about half of leaned Democrats are very enthusiastic about their choice, and 53 percent say they’d consider supporting a different candidate. Warren, while weaker as a first choice, leads in second-choice preference. Further, while Biden continues to prevail by a wide margin as the candidate with the best chance to defeat Donald Trump in the general election, his score on the measure has slipped slightly, from 45 percent in July to 38 percent now. Eighteen percent pick Sanders as best against Trump; 10 percent, Warren. Biden does best in vote preference among likely voters, defined here as those who say they’re registered and certain to vote in their state’s primary or caucuses. He has 34 percent support in this group, leading Sanders, at 22 percent, and Warren, 14 percent. -
CNN 2020 New Hampshire Primary Poll
CNN 2020 NH Primary Poll CNN 2020 New Hampshire Primary Poll These findings are based on the latest CNN 2020 New Hampshire Primary Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Seven hundred five (705) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed in English by landline and cellular telephone between February 6 and February 9, 2020. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.7 percent. Included in the sample were 365 likely 2020 Democra c Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 5.1 percent) and 212 likely 2020 Republican Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 6.7 percent). Trend points prior to July 2019 reflect results from the Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The random sample used in the CNN 2020 New Hampshire Primary Poll was purchased from Scien fic Telephone Samples (STS), Rancho Santo Margarita, CA. STS screens each selected telephone number to eliminate non-working numbers, disconnected numbers, and business numbers to improve the efficiency of the sample, reducing the amount of me interviewers spend calling non-usable numbers. When a landline number is reached, the interviewer randomly selects a member of the household by asking to speak with the adult currently living in the household who has had the most recent birthday. This selec on process ensures that every adult (18 years of age or older) in the household has an equal chance of being included in the survey. The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households. -
2-8-20 Final NH Tracking Cross Tabs
Table Q5 Page 1 5. I'm going to read you a list of the major active candidates who are certified on the New Hampshire Democratic ballot for president. Please tell me who you would vote for or lean toward at this point. If you know who you would vote for, feel free to stop me at any time. BANNER 1 =============================================================================================== DEMOGRAPHICS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIKELY TO GENDER AREA PARTY VOTE AGE ----------- ---------------------- ----------------- ----------- ----------------------------- FE- WEST/ CEN- HILLS ROCKI IND/ NOT OVER TOTAL MALE MALE NORTH TRAL BORO NGHAM DEM UNDCL REG VERY SMWT 18-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 65 ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Total 500 220 280 126 130 133 111 298 197 2 461 39 132 87 93 99 82 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Michael Bennet 1 1 - - - 1 - 1 - - 1 - - - - 1 - * * 1 * * 1 Joe Biden 52 19 33 15 13 15 9 38 14 - 48 4 5 5 8 18 16 10 9 12 12 10 11 8 13 7 10 10 4 6 9 18 20 Pete Buttigieg 109 50 59 17 36 31 25 61 48 - 100 9 25 18 25 24 13 22 23 21 13 28 23 23 20 24 22 23 19 21 27 24 16 Tulsi Gabbard 10 7 3 3 1 6 - 4 6 - 9 1 3 2 1 2 2 2 3 1 2 1 5 1 3 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 Amy Klobuchar 43 18 25 12 11 10 10 22 20 - 41 2 4 4 13 12 10 9 8 9 10 8 8 9 7 10 9 5 3 5 14 12 12 Deval Patrick 2 2 - 1 - - 1 2 - - 1 1 - 1 - 1 - * 1 1 1 1 * 3 1 1 Bernie Sanders 119 58 61 41 28 25 25 66 51 -
The Fourteen-Billion-Dollar Election Emerging Campaign Finance Trends and Their Impact on the 2020 Presidential Race and Beyond
12 The Fourteen-Billion-Dollar Election Emerging Campaign Finance Trends and their Impact on the 2020 Presidential Race and Beyond Michael E. Toner and Karen E. Trainer The 2020 presidential and congressional election was the most expensive election in American history, shattering previous fundraising and spending records. Total spending on the 2020 election totaled an estimated $14 bil- lion, which was more than double the amount spent during the 2016 cycle and more than any previous election in U.S. history. 1 The historic 2020 spending tally was more than was spent in the previous two election cycles combined.2 Moreover, former Vice President Joseph Biden and Senator Kamala Harris made fundraising history in 2020 as their presidential campaign became the first campaign in history to raise over $1 billion in a single election cycle, with a total of $1.1 billion.3 For their part, President Trump and Vice Presi- dent Pence raised in excess of $700 million for their presidential campaign, more than double the amount that they raised in 2016.4 The record amount of money expended on the 2020 election was also fu- eled by a significant increase in spending by outside groups such as Super PACs as well as enhanced congressional candidate fundraising. Political party expenditures increased in 2020, but constituted a smaller share of total electoral spending. Of the $14 billion total, approximately $6.6 billion was spent in connection with the presidential race and $7.2 billion was expended at the congressional level.5 To put those spending amounts into perspective, the $7.2 billion tally at the congressional level nearly equals the GDP of Monaco.6 More than $1 billion of the $14 billion was spent for online advertising on platforms such as Facebook and Google.7 203 204 Michael E. -
Voter Intent Posters
envelope Democratic Sort 2 Mark one party declaration box (required) Democratic Party X decare that m art preference i the Democratic Part an wil not Tabulate articiate i the nomiatio roce o an other politica art for the 202 Presidentia election. Republican Party decare that am a Republica an have not particiate an wil not articiate i the 202 precict caucu or conventio system o an other arty. Declared-party Ballot, Declared-party Ballot, Declared-party Ballot ballot Write-in ballot Overvote ballot Deocratic Party Republican Party Deocratic Party Republican Party Deocratic Party Republican Party I you ared Deocratic Party on I you ared Republican Party on I you ared Deocratic Party on I you ared Republican Party on I you ared Deocratic Party on I you ared Republican Party on your return envelope, you ust vote your return envelope, you ust vote your return envelope, you ust vote your return envelope, you ust vote your return envelope, you ust vote your return envelope, you ust vote or O Deocratic candidate below. or O Republican candidate below. or O Deocratic candidate below. or O Republican candidate below. or O Deocratic candidate below. or O Republican candidate below. icae eet Doa Trm icae eet Doa Trm icae eet Doa Trm oe ie __________________________ oe ie __________________________ oe ie __________________________ icae oomer icae oomer icae oomer or ooer or ooer or ooer ete ttiie ete ttiie ete ttiie o Deae o Deae o Deae i aar i aar i aar m ocar m ocar m ocar Dea atric Dea atric Dea atric erie Saer erie Saer erie Saer om Steer om Steer om Steer iaet arre iaet arre iaet arre re a re a re a committe Deeate committe Deeate committe Deeate __________________________ __________________________A. -
And I'm Calling from RKM Research and Communications
Franklin Pierce University / Boston Herald / NBC10 Poll © 2020 RKM Research and Communications (1/23/-1/26) INT1 Hello, my name is ___________, and I'm calling from RKM Research and Communications. We’re conducting a very brief opinion poll on behalf of Franklin Pierce University, the Boston Herald, and NBC10 TV news and I’d like to speak to an adult age 18 or older. “Would that be you?” or “Is he / she available?” Type [next] to continue INT2 I assure you that this is not a sales call. We’re only interested in your opinions. Thank you for helping us. Your telephone number was chosen randomly, and all of your responses are completely confidential and anonymous. 01 Eligible respondent [continue] 02 Appointment [setup a call-back] 99 Refusal [thank and terminate] Q01 Are you currently registered to vote in New Hampshire? IF YES: Are you registered as a Democrat, independent, Republican, or something else? 00 No - not registered [thank and terminate] 01 Democrat [continue] 02 independent, or undeclared [continue] 03 Republican [continue] 88 Other [thank and terminate] 99 Do NOT live in New Hampshire [thank and terminate] 1 Q02 How likely is it that you will vote in the upcoming New Hampshire presidential primary? Do you think you: Read responses: 01 Definitely will [continue] 02 Probably will [continue] 03 You’re not sure yet [thank and terminate] 04 You probably won’t [thank and terminate] [If Q01 = 2 or Q01 = 88, skip to Q03]: [if Q01 = 1 or 3, skip to Q04] Q03 Do you plan to vote in the Democratic or Republican presidential primary? 01 Democratic [skip to Q04] 02 Republican [skip to Q04] 88 Other [thank and terminate] 99 Don=t know / unsure [thank and terminate] Q04 How closely have you followed the 2020 presidential race? Would you say: Read responses: 01 Very closely 02 Moderately closely 03 Only somewhat closely 99 Don’t know / unsure 2 [If Democratic primary voter: Q01 = 1 or Q03 = 1] ASK Q05 – Q19: Q05 Now I am going to read you a list of some candidates who are running in the Democratic presidential primary. -
Small Donor Matching Funds: the Nyc Election Experience | 2 Ii
SM ALL DONOR MATCHING FUNDS: THE NYC ELECTION E XPERIENCE Angela Migally Susan Liss Foreword by Frederick A.O. Schwarz, Jr. Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law ABOUT THE BRENNAN CENTER FOR JUSTICE The Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law is a non-partisan public policy and law institute that focuses on the fundamental issues of democracy and justice. Our work ranges from voting rights to campaign finance reform, from racial justice in criminal law to presidential power in the fight against terrorism. A singular institution – part think tank, part public interest law firm, part advocacy group – the Brennan Center combines scholarship, legislative and legal advocacy, and communications to win meaningful, measurable change in the public sector. ABOUT THE BRENNAN CENTER’S DEMOCRACY PROGRAM The Brennan Center’s Democracy Program works to repair the broken systems of American democracy. We en- courage broad citizen participation by promoting voting and campaign reform. We work to secure fair courts and to advance a First Amendment jurisprudence that puts the right of citizens – not special interests – at the center of our democracy. We collaborate with grassroots groups, advocacy organizations, and government officials to eliminate the obstacles to an effective democracy. The Democracy Program’s Money and Politics project works to reduce the real and perceived influence of special interest money on our democratic values. We serve as con- stitutional counsel to the Fair Elections coalition, promoting public financing for congressional and presidential elections. Project staff also defend federal, state, and local campaign finance, public finance, and disclosure laws in courts around the country, and provide legal guidance to state and local campaign finance reformers through counseling, testimony, and public education. -
Special & REP 1
Official Ballot Special & REP 1 Presidential Primary Election April 28, 2020 State of Maryland, Baltimore County Republican Ballot Instructions President of the United Delegates to the Republican States National Convention Vote for 1 District 7 Making Selections Vote for up to 3 Donald J. Trump Bill Weld Tom Kennedy (Trump) Unopposed Representative in Congress District 7 Don Murphy Vote for 1 (Trump) Unopposed Fill in the oval to the left of Ray Bly the name of your choice. You must blacken the oval Brian L. Brown Laura M. Walsh (Trump) completely, and do not Kimberly Klacik make any marks outside of Unopposed the oval. You do not have M.J. Madwolf to vote in every race. Liz Matory William Newton Alternate Delegates to the Do not cross out or erase, Republican National or your vote may not count. Judge of the Circuit Court Convention If you make a mistake or a Circuit 3 District 7 stray mark, you may ask for Vote for up to 3 a new ballot. Vote for up to 2 Vicki Ballou-Watts Tamu I. Davenport Unopposed (Trump) Unopposed Andrew Martin Battista Unopposed Patricia R. Fallon (Trump) Unopposed Kathryn Jerrard (Trump) Unopposed End of Ballot Official Ballot BS REP 2 Presidential Primary Election April 28, 2020 State of Maryland, Baltimore County Republican Ballot Instructions President of the United Delegates to the Republican States National Convention Vote for 1 District 2 Making Selections Vote for up to 3 Donald J. Trump Bill Weld Merlynn F. Carson (Trump) Unopposed Representative in Congress District 2 John C. Fiastro, Jr. -
Biden and Warren Trail 2/9/2020
CNN 2020 NH Primary Poll February 9, 2020 SANDERS'S LEAD OVER BUTTIGIEG IN NH HOLDING STEADY; BIDEN AND WARREN TRAIL By: Sean P. McKinley, M.A. [email protected] Zachary S. Azem, M.A. 603-862-2226 Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. cola.unh.edu/unh-survey-center DURHAM, NH – With three days of campaigning le before the votes are counted in New Hampshire, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders maintains a slim lead over former South Bend (IN) Mayor Pete Bu gieg among likely Democra c voters. Former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachuse s Senator Elizabeth Warren con nue to trail, with Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, and entrepreneur Andrew Yang further back. Klobuchar has experienced a slight up ck in support since the last polling period and now sits in fi h place. Sanders con nues to hold a sizeable lead among self-described liberal likely Democra c voters while Bu gieg leads among moderates and conserva ves. These findings are based on the latest CNN 2020 New Hampshire Primary Poll*, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Seven hundred sixty-five (765) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed in English by landline and cellular telephone between February 5 and February 8, 2020. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.5 percent. Included in the sample were 384 likely 2020 Democra c Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 5.0 percent) and 227 likely 2020 Republican Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 6.5 percent). Trend points prior to July 2019 reflect results from the Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. -
Michael Bloomberg Announces Grantees of $125 Million Initiative to Promote Freedom from Smoking
FROM: Rubenstein Communications – Public Relations Contact: Robert Lawson (212) 843-8040 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Michael Bloomberg Announces Grantees of $125 Million Initiative to Promote Freedom from Smoking New York City – Michael R. Bloomberg today named the five key partner organizations, which will implement his initiative, coordinating activities and providing grants to other organizations to promote freedom from smoking. The partners are the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Foundation, the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, the World Health Organization, and the World Lung Foundation. Bloomberg’s $125 million, two-year contribution is many times larger than any prior donation for global tobacco control and more than doubles the global total of private and public donor resources devoted to fighting tobacco use in developing countries, where more than two thirds of the world’s smokers live. All of the resources are dedicated outside the United States to specifically benefit low- and middle-income countries. “New York City has had tremendous success reducing tobacco use,” Bloomberg said. “As a result, there are nearly 200,000 fewer smokers in the city today than there were 4 years ago. If that kind of progress can be made on a global scale, we can save many millions of lives. This initiative will focus on getting results -- reducing tobacco use by proven means.” The five partner organizations will implement and coordinate activities to help stop the epidemic of tobacco use, working in partnership and close coordination with other organizations involved in international tobacco control. The four components of the initiative are listed below. -
Press Release
PRESS RELEASE Reuters/Ipsos Poll: Democratic Primary Tracker Biden and Sanders are the top choices for Democrats, Warren remains in third place for the nomination Washington, DC, January 10, 2020 — A new public opinion poll shows that Senator Bernie Sanders and Former Vice President Joe Biden are the top contenders for the 2020 presidential nomination. Among Democratic registered voters, Biden (23%) maintains an edge over Sanders (20%) and Senator Elizabeth Warren (15%). Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg (8%) and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg (7%) round out the top five candidates in the race for the Democratic nomination. Among Democrats and independents, Sanders (17%) has a slight lead over Biden (15%), and Warren (10%) maintains her third-place position. Buttigieg (5%) and Bloomberg (6%) are statistically tied among Democrats and independents. All other candidates receive 3% of the vote share or less among Democrats and independents and Democratic registered voters. When asked about the most important candidate traits that factor into who they decide to vote for, Democratic registered voters were most likely to say that the ability to beat President Trump in the general election (42%) was the most important consideration for them. The next most important traits were strong positions on healthcare (11%) and the economy and jobs (11%). Read the full Reuters story here. For full results, please refer to the following annotated questionnaire. 2020 K Street, NW, Suite 410 Contact: Chris Jackson Washington DC 20006 Vice President, US, Public Affairs, Ipsos +1 202 463-7300 Email: [email protected] Tel: +1 202 420-2025 PRESS RELEASE Democratic All Democrats Republicans Independents registered respondents voters Yes 82% 90% 86% 75% 100% P1. -
Toplines February 2019 University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll of New Hampshire Registered Voters
Toplines February 2019 University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll of New Hampshire Registered Voters Field Dates: February 7 – February 15, 2019 Sample: 600 Registered Voters in New Hampshire 337 Likely Democratic Voters Margin of Error: 4.8% for All Registered Voters 6.4% for Likely Democratic Voters YouGov interviewed 624 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 600 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the New Hampshire registered voter portion of the 2016 Current Population Survey (CPS) with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file). The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and region. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles. All figures presented in this document are for registered adults. UMass Poll Directors/Fellows Prof. Tatishe M. Nteta, Ph.D. – Director [email protected] Prof. Raymond La Raja, Ph.D. – Associate Director [email protected] Prof. Jesse Rhodes, Ph.D. – Associate Director [email protected] Kaylee Johnson, Research Fellow [email protected] 1 [email protected] - @UMassPoll - http://www.umass.edu/poll Ranking Candidate Qualities Among Democrats (N=336) Question only asked if respondent self-identifies as 1) Democrat or 2) Independent who is planning on voting in 2020 Democratic Primary.