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The Troubles of an Accidental Leader

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The Troubles of an Accidental Leader THE TROUBLES OF AN ACCIDENTAL LEADER L. Ian MacDonald Stéphane Dion’s problems began on the day he was elected Liberal leader in 2006, storming from third place to overtake Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff. In a revolt against the Liberal establishment, the Liberal rank and file rejected both the foreigner (Ignatieff), and the stranger (Rae), who had been in other countries and another party for the previous 30 years. While Dion had a plan for winning the convention as a green compromise candidate, he has yet to present a plan for winning the country. He’s in serious trouble in his home province of Quebec, and now that word is out in Ontario. Our editor offers a narrative of the troubles of an accidental leader. Les problèmes de Stéphane Dion ont commencé dès ce jour de 2006 où il a été élu à la tête des libéraux en coiffant au poteau Bob Rae et Michael Ignatieff. Se rebellant contre la direction du parti, les militants avaient rejeté tout à la fois l’exilé (Ignatieff) et le transfuge (Rae), qui tentaient un retour après 30 ans, que le premier avait passés à l’étranger et le second, dans un autre parti. Si Stéphane Dion avait bel et bien prévu de se poser en candidat vert, et du compromis, pour conquérir son parti, il lui reste à produire un plan de conquête du pays. Déjà en sérieuse difficulté dans sa propre province, le voici mis en doute en Ontario. Notre rédacteur en chef retrace le parcours semé d’embûches de l’improbable leader. n a way, Stéphane Dion’s problems began on the day and camps worked to lock in their deals for the second ballot because of the manner in which he won the Liberal lead- early on Saturday morning. Already, after the first ballot, I ership in December 2006, coming from a distant third Brison and Volpe had dropped out and gone to Rae on the place to overtake frontrunners Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae. floor of the convention. Findlay, who had deals with both It meant there were two candidates ahead of him Ignatieff and Rae, showed up for Saturday morning’s second who thought they should have won. Actually, three, ballot with Dion as a passenger on her bus. Eliminated, she counting Gerard Kennedy, who would have finished was throwing her support to Dion, and that created enough third if a half-dozen of his delegates, as reported later by separation between the third- and fourth-place candidates Joan Bryden of Canadian Press, hadn’t parked with — two percentage points and 90 delegates — that Dion Martha Hall Findlay on the first ballot to reward her for rather than Rae emerged as the stop-Iggy candidate. an outstanding speech earlier on that long Friday As Robin Sears later wrote in Policy Options (February evening at Montreal’s Palais des Congrès. 2007): “If the six Kennedy women delegates who had loaned It is worth reviewing the numbers of the first ballot: their first ballot vote to Martha Hall Findlay had not indulged Ignatieff 1,412 (29.3 percent), Rae 977 (20.3 percent), Dion in that gesture of feminine solidarity, Dion would have been 856 (17.8 percent), Kennedy 854 (17.7 percent), Ken in fourth place, four votes behind Kennedy…Dion’s largely Dryden, 238 (4.9 percent), Scott Brison 192 (4 percent), Joe Quebec delegates would not have moved en bloc to Kennedy, Volpe 156 (3.2 percent) and Findlay 130 (2.7 percent). Had but rather would have split strongly in Rae’s favour.” those half-dozen Kennedy delegates stayed with their candi- As it developed, both Ignatieff and Rae stalled on the date rather than voting their symbolic approval of Findlay, second ballot at 1,481 (31.8 percent) and 1,132 (24.1). Kennedy would have been four votes ahead of Dion, not Ignatieff grew only two points and Rae only four points, two votes behind. This changed the design of the conven- despite two endorsements. What Rae really needed was for tion, creating an accidental leader. Dryden to drop out and go to him after the first ballot, After the first ballot, the delegates dispersed for a night rather than waiting until he was eliminated on the second. of partying in Old Montreal, while the various leadership What Rae really didn’t need was Kennedy dropping out after 28 OPTIONS POLITIQUES MAI 2008 The troubles of an accidental leader two ballots with 884 votes (19.8 per- discussions, but also for his tendency ion obviously had a plan for cent) and taking most of them over to to lecture them around the cabinet D breaking out of the back of the Dion, who had 974 (20.8 percent), cre- table on their responsibilities in their pack of the leadership race, but none ating a decisive momentum surge that own portfolios. He was a one-issue for moving the party forward in the allowed Dion to overtake both front- candidate on the environment, which unlikely event that he won. In runners on the third ballot, where produced the “Dionistas,” with their Montreal, the Liberal convention Dion vaulted to first place with 37 per- billowing sea of green scarves at the managers, led by national director cent, against 34.5 percent for Ignatieff, convention, but only set him up for a Steve MacKinnon, did an outstanding with Rae eliminated at 28.5 percent. devastating Conservative attack ad job of staging an exciting three-day On the fourth and final ballot, Dion within weeks of his return to the delegated convention — with tremen- would win with 54.7 percent to Commons. dous excitement and suspense on the Ignatieff’s 45.3 percent. The Tories staged a pre-emptive two days of speeches and balloting. The Liberals rejected the foreigner, advertising attack on Dion’s environ- But beyond that, there was no plan for Ignatieff, who had been out the country mental credentials, quoting Ignatieff organizing a policy convention for the for 30 years, and the stranger, Rae, who from a Liberal leadership debate, lec- party’s intellectual renewal. There was no venue for planning and The Liberals rejected the foreigner, Ignatieff, who had been shaping policy frameworks. out the country for 30 years, and the stranger, Rae, who had And, significantly, Dion been in another party for 30 years. Stéphane Dion became overlooked the need for the default candidate of Liberals determined to stop one or humility — something Liberals don’t do very well the other, and, as it turned out, both. It was a revolt of the — when in his acceptance grassroots against the Liberal establishment. speech he said the party had to get back in power as had been in another party for 30 years. turing Dion: “Stéphane, we didn’t get soon as possible to save the country Stéphane Dion became the default can- it done.” The Conservatives closed the from the Conservatives. With the didate of Liberals determined to stop ad with the tag line: “Stéphane Dion, Liberals barely turfed out after four one or the other, and, as it turned out, not a leader.” consecutive terms in office, Dion was both. It was a revolt of the grassroots Says pollster Nik Nanos of Nanos suggesting a dynastic renewal based on against the Liberal establishment. Research: “The Conservative strategy of nothing more than the resilience of proactively defining Stéphane Dion the Liberal brand, which had nothing hroughout the six months of the from day one is one of the most effec- to do with the renewal of ideas or the T leadership race, Dion was never tive communications strategies I’ve ever party’s grassroots, from one generation seen as a first-tier candidate, and many seen. Usually, there’s a honeymoon to the next. observers wondered why he was even period for a new leader. But the decision in the race. He was regarded as a back- of the Conservatives to roll out the ad urthermore, as all the defeated of-the-pack candidate, like Dryden and strategy stole the honeymoon, wrote F candidates sitting around a lunch- Brison, in it to make a point and a the narrative and defined his image.” eon table with Dion on the morrow of speech at the convention. And in fact, In the House, the new environ- the convention knew well, the party he made what was generally regarded ment minister, John Baird, known as was broke and facing huge financial as the worst speech of the night at the both a thoughtful and a highly effec- challenges arising from the leadership convention. Evidently, no one cared or tive partisan, taunted the Liberals and campaign. The candidates were limit- no one was listening. Dion for their collective and personal ed to spending $3.4 million by party Dion was a Quebecer without failure to meet the Kyoto emissions rules, a far cry from the $12 million much support in his own province, reductions targets they were advocat- raised and spent by Paul Martin to especially in the Liberal caucus, where ing. Baird even made a Power-Point secure the Liberal leadership in 2003. his handful of supporters included presentation to the House environ- But that was in another era, before MPs from anglophone- and allophone- ment committee with a trend line Jean Chrétien’s legacy campaign dominated ridings in the western half pointing out that during the Liberals’ finance reform included leadership of Montreal. He was a former minister 13 years in office, Canada’s green- campaigns under an umbrella that without a single endorsement among house gas emissions rose by 27 per- prohibited corporate and union dona- his former colleagues in the Chrétien cent above 1990 levels — a 33 percent tions, and set a $5,000-a-year limit on and Martin cabinets, who remembered miss in terms of Kyoto targets of personal donations.
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