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Home , Bob Rae, Gerard Kennedy, Martha Hall Findlay, Michael Ignatieff, Paul Martin, Quebec lieutenant

THE TROUBLES OF AN ACCIDENTAL LEADER

L. Ian MacDonald

Stéphane Dion’s problems began on the day he was elected Liberal leader in 2006, storming from third place to overtake and . In a revolt against the Liberal establishment, the Liberal rank and file rejected both the foreigner (Ignatieff), and the stranger (Rae), who had been in other countries and another party for the previous 30 years. While Dion had a plan for winning the convention as a green compromise candidate, he has yet to present a plan for winning the country. He’s in serious trouble in his home province of , and now that word is out in . Our editor offers a narrative of the troubles of an accidental leader.

Les problèmes de Stéphane Dion ont commencé dès ce jour de 2006 où il a été élu à la tête des libéraux en coiffant au poteau Bob Rae et Michael Ignatieff. Se rebellant contre la direction du parti, les militants avaient rejeté tout à la fois l’exilé (Ignatieff) et le transfuge (Rae), qui tentaient un retour après 30 ans, que le premier avait passés à l’étranger et le second, dans un autre parti. Si Stéphane Dion avait bel et bien prévu de se poser en candidat vert, et du compromis, pour conquérir son parti, il lui reste à produire un plan de conquête du pays. Déjà en sérieuse difficulté dans sa propre province, le voici mis en doute en Ontario. Notre rédacteur en chef retrace le parcours semé d’embûches de l’improbable leader.

n a way, Stéphane Dion’s problems began on the day and camps worked to lock in their deals for the second ballot because of the manner in which he won the Liberal lead- early on Saturday morning. Already, after the first ballot, I ership in December 2006, coming from a distant third Brison and Volpe had dropped out and gone to Rae on the place to overtake frontrunners Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae. floor of the convention. Findlay, who had deals with both It meant there were two candidates ahead of him Ignatieff and Rae, showed up for Saturday morning’s second who thought they should have won. Actually, three, ballot with Dion as a passenger on her bus. Eliminated, she counting , who would have finished was throwing her support to Dion, and that created enough third if a half-dozen of his delegates, as reported later by separation between the third- and fourth-place candidates Joan Bryden of Canadian Press, hadn’t parked with — two percentage points and 90 delegates — that Dion on the first ballot to reward her for rather than Rae emerged as the stop-Iggy candidate. an outstanding speech earlier on that long Friday As Robin Sears later wrote in Policy Options (February evening at ’s Palais des Congrès. 2007): “If the six Kennedy women delegates who had loaned It is worth reviewing the numbers of the first ballot: their first ballot vote to Martha Hall Findlay had not indulged Ignatieff 1,412 (29.3 percent), Rae 977 (20.3 percent), Dion in that gesture of feminine solidarity, Dion would have been 856 (17.8 percent), Kennedy 854 (17.7 percent), Ken in fourth place, four votes behind Kennedy…Dion’s largely Dryden, 238 (4.9 percent), 192 (4 percent), Joe Quebec delegates would not have moved en bloc to Kennedy, Volpe 156 (3.2 percent) and Findlay 130 (2.7 percent). Had but rather would have split strongly in Rae’s favour.” those half-dozen Kennedy delegates stayed with their candi- As it developed, both Ignatieff and Rae stalled on the date rather than voting their symbolic approval of Findlay, second ballot at 1,481 (31.8 percent) and 1,132 (24.1). Kennedy would have been four votes ahead of Dion, not Ignatieff grew only two points and Rae only four points, two votes behind. This changed the design of the conven- despite two endorsements. What Rae really needed was for tion, creating an accidental leader. Dryden to drop out and go to him after the first ballot, After the first ballot, the delegates dispersed for a night rather than waiting until he was eliminated on the second. of partying in Old Montreal, while the various leadership What Rae really didn’t need was Kennedy dropping out after

28 OPTIONS POLITIQUES MAI 2008 The troubles of an accidental leader two ballots with 884 votes (19.8 per- discussions, but also for his tendency ion obviously had a plan for cent) and taking most of them over to to lecture them around the cabinet D breaking out of the back of the Dion, who had 974 (20.8 percent), cre- table on their responsibilities in their pack of the leadership race, but none ating a decisive momentum surge that own portfolios. He was a one-issue for moving the party forward in the allowed Dion to overtake both front- candidate on the environment, which unlikely event that he won. In runners on the third ballot, where produced the “Dionistas,” with their Montreal, the Liberal convention Dion vaulted to first place with 37 per- billowing sea of green scarves at the managers, led by national director cent, against 34.5 percent for Ignatieff, convention, but only set him up for a Steve MacKinnon, did an outstanding with Rae eliminated at 28.5 percent. devastating Conservative attack ad job of staging an exciting three-day On the fourth and final ballot, Dion within weeks of his return to the delegated convention — with tremen- would win with 54.7 percent to Commons. dous excitement and suspense on the Ignatieff’s 45.3 percent. The Tories staged a pre-emptive two days of speeches and balloting. The Liberals rejected the foreigner, advertising attack on Dion’s environ- But beyond that, there was no plan for Ignatieff, who had been out the country mental credentials, quoting Ignatieff organizing a policy convention for the for 30 years, and the stranger, Rae, who from a Liberal leadership debate, lec- party’s intellectual renewal. There was no venue for planning and The Liberals rejected the foreigner, Ignatieff, who had been shaping policy frameworks. out the country for 30 years, and the stranger, Rae, who had And, significantly, Dion been in another party for 30 years. Stéphane Dion became overlooked the need for the default candidate of Liberals determined to stop one or humility — something Liberals don’t do very well the other, and, as it turned out, both. It was a revolt of the — when in his acceptance grassroots against the Liberal establishment. speech he said the party had to get back in power as had been in another party for 30 years. turing Dion: “Stéphane, we didn’t get soon as possible to save the country Stéphane Dion became the default can- it done.” The Conservatives closed the from the Conservatives. With the didate of Liberals determined to stop ad with the tag line: “Stéphane Dion, Liberals barely turfed out after four one or the other, and, as it turned out, not a leader.” consecutive terms in office, Dion was both. It was a revolt of the grassroots Says pollster Nik Nanos of Nanos suggesting a dynastic renewal based on against the Liberal establishment. Research: “The Conservative strategy of nothing more than the resilience of proactively defining Stéphane Dion the Liberal brand, which had nothing hroughout the six months of the from day one is one of the most effec- to do with the renewal of ideas or the T leadership race, Dion was never tive communications strategies I’ve ever party’s grassroots, from one generation seen as a first-tier candidate, and many seen. Usually, there’s a honeymoon to the next. observers wondered why he was even period for a new leader. But the decision in the race. He was regarded as a back- of the Conservatives to roll out the ad urthermore, as all the defeated of-the-pack candidate, like Dryden and strategy stole the honeymoon, wrote F candidates sitting around a lunch- Brison, in it to make a point and a the narrative and defined his image.” eon table with Dion on the morrow of speech at the convention. And in fact, In the House, the new environ- the convention knew well, the party he made what was generally regarded ment minister, John Baird, known as was broke and facing huge financial as the worst speech of the night at the both a thoughtful and a highly effec- challenges arising from the . Evidently, no one cared or tive partisan, taunted the Liberals and campaign. The candidates were limit- no one was listening. Dion for their collective and personal ed to spending $3.4 million by party Dion was a Quebecer without failure to meet the Kyoto emissions rules, a far cry from the $12 million much support in his own province, reductions targets they were advocat- raised and spent by to especially in the Liberal caucus, where ing. Baird even made a Power-Point secure the Liberal leadership in 2003. his handful of supporters included presentation to the House environ- But that was in another era, before MPs from anglophone- and allophone- ment committee with a trend line Jean Chrétien’s legacy campaign dominated ridings in the western half pointing out that during the Liberals’ finance reform included leadership of Montreal. He was a former minister 13 years in office, Canada’s green- campaigns under an umbrella that without a single endorsement among house gas emissions rose by 27 per- prohibited corporate and union dona- his former colleagues in the Chrétien cent above 1990 levels — a 33 percent tions, and set a $5,000-a-year limit on and Martin cabinets, who remembered miss in terms of Kyoto targets of personal donations. It was also before him not only for his professorial reducing them by 6 percent below the Harper government’s 2006 propensity for summarizing cabinet 1990 levels. Acountability Act, which initially

POLICY OPTIONS 29 MAY 2008 L. Ian MacDonald

further reduced individual donations mainly because there was as much rent, Trudeau and Chrétien, now led to $1,000 per person. The effect of truth as humour to it. by another Québécois named Dion, these strictures was such that more And there runs the fault line of was a bad third among francophone than a year later, both Ignatieff and Rae Dion’s leadership, down the voters. And the Conservatives had were still holding fundraisers to liqui- River between Quebec and Ontario. replaced the Liberals as the competi- date debt from their relatively modest And there, precisely, is where the next tive federalist party against the Bloc $2-million leadership campaigns, and election will play out. outside Montreal. To borrow or steal a Dion himself was still facing a leader- The huge problem looming for the Liberal campaign slogan from the ship debt of $850,000, with no Liberals is what’s known in the politi- 1990s, one that now turned to the prospect of paying it off in the event he cal class as the “echo effect” or the advantage of les bleus, the Conserva- were to lose a general election. In 2008, “mirror effect,” between Quebec and tives were now the “Block the Bloc” not only were the leadership cam- Ontario, which together send about 60 party for federalists outside Montreal. paigns still paying off debts from 2006, percent of all members to the House of The importance of this cannot be they were competing against the party Commons. Quebecers like to elect win- overstated, in terms of both the echo in its attempts to raise money for the ners. Ontarians like to elect national effect and of the prospects for Harper next election. And the Liberals were governments. The voters of Quebec to grow from minority to majority sta- not doing very well on that front. In and Ontario look and listen to each tus from one to the next. 2007, the Conservatives raised For Harper, the road to a major- four times as much money as discovered that Dion’s ity clearly lies through Quebec, the Liberals, from a much English was heavily accented and his with its 50 seats outside broader donor base. Montreal. In sum, the Liberals were syntax painfully awkward. Pollsters say there comes a broke; the candidates were in Eventually, the country also point where the numbers are debt; the party was essentially discovered that he was a leader talking. In this regard, the point bereft of new ideas or a process without standing in his home where the numbers talked was for renewal; a party of govern- in the CROP poll for La Presse, ment was stranded in opposi- province of Quebec. So that voters published in its Saturday edition tion, in an unseemly hurry to in Ontario, who like to elect national of March 29, 2008. In Quebec, cross the floor to power again. parties with good prospects in there are two kinds of polls, And their new leader, whom Quebec, saw a leader without a CROP and the others, notably the Tories mercilessly taunted Leger Marketing. But CROP is as “not a leader,” allowed the base, like a prophet without honour regarded as the authoritative Conservatives to define him in in his own land. political brand. The top line was his first weeks on the job. troubling enough for the other across the Ottawa River, creating Liberals, showing the Bloc and the hen, when he turned up in the a mirror or echo effect. Pollsters can’t Conservatives virtually tied at 30 and 29 T House as Liberal leader in 2007, quantify this, but politicians and their percent respectively, with the Liberals at Canadians discovered that Dion’s managers not only believe in it, but 20 percent and the NDP at 15 percent. English was heavily accented and his take it as an article of electoral faith. But when you drilled down in the syntax painfully awkward. Eventually, regional and demographic numbers, the country also discovered that he nd the echo effect kicked in, big they were disastrous for Dion. Among was a leader without standing in his A time, on the night of September francophones, 85 percent of all home province of Quebec. So that vot- 17, 2007, when Dion’s Liberals took a Quebec voters, the Bloc was at 35 per- ers in Ontario, who like to elect pounding in three Quebec by-elec- cent, the Conservatives at 30 percent, national parties with good prospects in tions. In Montreal, a hand-picked while the Liberals and NDP were tied Quebec, saw a leader without a base, Dion candidate lost the Liberal fortress at 15 percent. This meant the Liberals like a prophet without honour in his of Outremont to the NDP’s Tom Mul- wouldn’t win a single seat outside own land. Or, as Dion himself put it in cair by nearly 20 points, marking the Montreal. A local candidate could be a memorable line at the National Press first time ’s party had ever very strong, with a great organization Gallery dinner in October 2007, his won a seat on the island of Montreal. and ground game, but there isn’t a seat problem was that English-speaking Even worse, the Liberals finished a bad to be won anywhere outside Montreal Canadians “can’t understand me,” third to the Conservatives or the Bloc from a province-wide francophone while “just can’t Québécois in two by-elections outside base of 15 percent. stand me.” It brought the house down Montreal, in the so-called ROQ — Rest And in the critically important with howls of appreciative laughter, of Quebec. The party of Laurier, St-Lau- 418 region — Quebec City and east —

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L. Ian MacDonald

the CROP poll was even worse for the no one was afraid of him. “I’m the Liberals from across the country, as Liberals, showing them in fourth place leader,” Dion declared, “and I don’t well as Quebec, were demanding at 14 percent, behind even the NDP at went people to be undisciplined.” It is Hervieux-Payettte’s head on the gates 17 percent, while the Conservatives impossible to imagine of Parliament Hill. were poised for a regional sweep at 41 or Jean Chrétien ever reduced to mak- But even if Dion were to dump percent, with the Bloc at 25 percent. ing such a plaintive statement to his Hervieux-Payette as Quebec lieu- Quebec is Dion’s home province, party members in his home province tenant, senior party insiders say that and Quebec City is his hometown, of Quebec. After the meeting, many wouldn’t change the fundamentals. “He’s got to mobilize the Beginning with the Throne Speech last fall, Dion has time and party around something,” again threatened to defeat the government, only to fold his said one Liberal senator hand. Time and again, he has been outmanœuvred by from Quebec. “He needs a mobilizing event.” on both tactics and strategy. While Dion was A major part of Dion’s playing checkers, Harper was playing chess. dilemma is the lack of a coherent policy agenda, where he was born, was raised and members came away shaking their and the obvious inconsistency of attended university at Laval. Pollster heads that the leader was completely denouncing the Conservatives in the Nik Nanos looks at such numbers and disconnected from the reality of the House, and then not showing up to says: “Quebecers, who know the leader party’s prospects in Quebec. But the vote against them. best, don’t like him.” gloom was unmistakable. One In the absence of a plan endorsed Even in their bastion of Montreal, Quebec senator told a top member of by a policy convention, Dion has the Liberals saw disquieting numbers the national campaign committee made a series of one-off announce- in the CROP poll — leading on the from Ontario: “If we’re going into an ments. One day it could be corporate island at 32 percent, with the Bloc at election, you can’t count on us in tax cuts. The next, green mortgages 25 percent, and the Conservatives Quebec for more than 12 seats.” Jean for the environment, before musing coming into the city at 21 percent. If Lapierre, the party’s Quebec lieu- about a national in April, they could gain another couple of tenant under Paul Martin and now a an idea first put forward by Ignatieff points in a subsequent CROP poll, the radio and television commentator, in the leadership race. Then, he Conservatives might prove to be com- said, “I never thought things could be endorsed a Liberal private member’s petitive in a couple of West Island worse than they were during the bill on registered education savings seats, Lac St-Louis and Pierrefonds- sponsorship scandal, but this is the plans, which passed the House, only Dollard, held by the party in the days worst I’ve ever seen.” to fold when the Conservatives put in of . a poison pill tying it to the budget ismissing reports the party was implementation bill. Beginning with he echo effect is what worries D having difficulty recruiting the Throne Speech last fall, Dion has T Liberals the most. “The worst Quebec candidates for the next elec- time and again threatened to defeat part,” says one leading Liberal senator tion, Dion and his , the government, only to fold his from Quebec, “is the word of it get- Céline Hervieux-Payette, declared at hand. Time and again, he has been ting out.” It’s out, all right. The CROP the end of the meeting that they had outmanœuvred by Stephen Harper on poll had significant resonance in 50 out of 75 candidates confirmed. both tactics and strategy. While Dion Ontario, where Liberals were remind- They wouldn’t give names, but La was playing checkers, Harper was ed of the extent of Dion’s problems in Presse columnist Vincent Marissal later playing chess. his home province. The CROP poll obtained a list of only 32 names followed an extraordinary meeting of obtained from party sources. When he he House of Commons is a the- the Liberal Party’s executive in called the Liberal Party for comment, it T atre best appreciated from the Quebec after several senior Liberals went to court to obtain a late-night galleries, for the off-camera body openly criticized the leader’s perform- injunction against publishing the list. language as well as the repartee and ance, and offered a gloomy assess- When it turned out in court the next derisory comments never recorded ment of the party’s prospects in day that the list wasn’t Hervieux- in Hansard. Quebec. None of Dion’s outspoken Payette’s own top secret list of candi- Before Question Period every day critics even bothered to couch their dates, the Liberals hastily withdrew at 2:15, the House sets aside 15 min- comments anonymously or on back- their request for an injunction. At this utes for statements by members, nor- ground. All of them went on the point, the entire political class was mally to note the achievements in record, essentially a declaration that doubled over in laughter, and furious their ridings, such as Roberval as

32 OPTIONS POLITIQUES MAI 2008 The troubles of an accidental leader

The Gazette, Montreal Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion with his Quebec lieutenant, Céline Hervieux-Payette, after a meeting of the party’s Quebec executive at the end of March. “I am the leader,” Dion declared, “and I don’t want people to be undisciplined.”

Hockeyville, or to mark events such and confidence in our government. the Olympic torch relay, on China as National Wildlife Week or the 90th However, the Liberal so-called leader is and human rights in Tibet. “We have anniversary of Vimy Ridge. Occa- saving Kyoto’s best advice for last. In all sorts of different factions in the sionally, members from all sides use the next election, which Liberals now Conservative government,” he began. their allotted 60 seconds for a purely pretend they will call in the dog days of He got no further, as he was interrupt- partisan purpose, as Conservative summer, their so-called leader will final- ed by howls of laughter from the gov- MP Jeff Watson did on April 9 in sug- ly play dead.” ernment benches, led by the Prime gesting Dion’s closest adviser was his Waiting to ask his lead question, Minister pointing to the Liberal front dog, Kyoto. Dion sat virtually expressionless bench. Even Rae had to smile. The “Kyoto says, ‘down boy,’ and the throughout these cruel comments. But next day, when Rae asked another Liberal leader responds by driving his the Liberal benches, instead of erupt- question in his capacity as foreign poll numbers in Quebec way down,” ing in outrage, sat mostly in silence affairs critic, it was taken by Deepak Watson said. “Kyoto says ‘sit’ and the throughout the indignity of it. It was a Obhrai, the Liberal leader responds by having his telling moment. to the absent foreign affairs minister. caucus sit vote after vote. When Kyoto In Question Period that day, the “I appreciate the response from the says ‘roll over,’ the Liberal leader oblig- newly arrived Bob Rae rose in his Prime Minister’s stand-in,” Rae es on every significant matter of policy place to ask a question, arising from resumed. To which Obhrai replied: “I

POLICY OPTIONS 33 MAY 2008 L. Ian MacDonald

appreciate the question from the Canada’s economic needs. For the leader without many unconditional Liberal stand-in leader.” Once again, Liberals, this was potentially a hot- supporters, even in his own office. the House erupted in laughter. button issue, particularly among eth- And when two members of his close As the House broke for a week- nic voters in the Greater circle, deputy principal secretary long recess in late April, the Liberals region, an important Liberal clien- Paddy Torsney and caucus liaison were once again faced with a decision tele concerned with family reunifica- Eleni Bakopanos, left his staff on about whether to defeat the govern- tion and refugee claims. With a April 15, that was taken as a sign that ment, this time over the immigration six-year backlog of at least 800,000 Dion may be preparing to break reform legislation, which the applicants to get into Canada, and a camp for an election. Both Torsney Conservatives cast as a matter of confi- dubious list of 60,000 trying to get in and Bakopanos are former MPs who dence by tying it to the budget imple- by the back door of refugee claims, are running again, and there was a mentation bill. the Conservatives happily stood sense that they were getting a head “We’re going to give the Liberals their ground. start on the campaign. one more chance to defeat us over In any event, the Liberal opposi- But Dion was still clinging to the immigration bill,” a senior mem- tion to the bill wasn’t about immi- strategic ambivalence. Maybe he would ber of cabinet confided in the second gration reform, or even about force an election, and maybe not. week of April. increasing pressure to stand up for And Dion, for his part, kept say- Liberal principles, a drumbeat led by L. Ian MacDonald, Editor of Policy ing he wouldn’t vote for the bill as it the editorial page of the very Liberal Options, is the author of the bestselling stood, though he wouldn’t say for . It was about the agendas Mulroney: The Making of the Prime sure he would vote against it. Dion of the various leadership camps, Minister and From Bourassa to opposes the bill giving the minister which have never dispersed. There Bourassa: Wilderness to Restoration. He discretionary powers to admit appli- are no more than half a dozen Dion is also a political columnist for the cants because of job skills and loyalists within the caucus. He is a and the .

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