INDONESIAN JOURNAL OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS Printed ISSN 2621-6167, e-ISSN 2621-4466 Vol. 1 Issue 2, December 2018 https://journal.uniku.ac.id/index.php/ijbe

Investment Need Plans Analysis Using ICOR Method in as Metropolitan Raya

Neni Nurhayati Universitas Kuningan [email protected]

Dadang Suhendar Universitas Kuningan [email protected]

Abstract This paper aimed at answering the goal of establishing Cirebon Raya Metropolitan as a center for economic development. Accelerated development is needed to increase economic growth in as one of the Greater Cirebon Metropolitan Area by increasing investment realization. Because one of the determinants of economic growth is investment, an analysis of the investment needs plan and data on investment sectors that are potential to be developed in Kuningan District are needed. Through this research, accurate data is obtained about the condition and development of investment in Kuningan Regency.To achieve this goal, an analytical description research method was conducted with data sources in the form of primary data and secondary data sourced from DPMTPSP, Bappeda, and BPS in Kuningan Regency related to Sectoral GRDP and investment data in both Kuningan and West Provinces. The data analysis technique uses the Incremental Capital Output Ratio (ICOR) method. This study lasted for 1 (one) year. The results of the study show that in welcoming the Greater Cirebon Metropolitan, the investment in the base sector in Kuningan Regency must be focused on the development of the Education Services, Transportation and Warehousing sector, and the agricultural and tourism products processing industries based on Agriculture, and natural resource potential.

Keywords: investment, ICOR, Kuningan Regency, Metropolitan Cirebon Raya JEL Classification: E22

INTRODUCTION potential provinces to be Ciayumajakuning region which developed. In addition to its consists of Regency, abundant natural potential such as Cirebon City, , agriculture, plantations, fisheries, Kuningan Regency, and trade, services, oil and gas, the Regency, is one of the National Ciayumajakuning region is also Activity Centers that will become supported by a very strategic urban areas and serve to serve geographical position where access international, national, and several to and and access

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Neni Nurhayati, Dadang Suhendar Investment Need Plans Analysis Using ICOR Method in Kuningan Regency as Metropolitan Cirebon Raya to Semarang and Yogyakarta area and growth center a through this region. In addition, the starting point for building topography of Ciayumajakuningpun modernization in is very supportive from the waters, 4. Making the metropolitan coastal areas, beaches, plains, to area and growth center a mountainous areas where Cirebon concrete step to create Regency, Cirebon City and sustainable development. as coastal areas In the West Javanese context and and contained in Perda No. 12 of 2014 Kuningan Regency as a mountainous there are three metropolitan areas region. With these conditions it is that will be designed in the not surprising that Ciayumajakuning development of investments. was used as a location for Metropolitan Area is defined as a infrastructure development, fast-growing region full of especially transportation competition that has an important infrastructure, both on land, sea role in developing the economy of and air, such as the construction of the region, is able to prosper the West Java International Airport in community, modernize, and Kertajati, Majalengka Regency, and sustainably develop, so that it construction of Cipali Toll Road, needs to be well managed and Cisumdawu Toll Road and Cirebon developed as a driver of Port. accelerated development in the In the regional context the region. One of the 3 (three) Ciayumajakuning area was metropolitan areas intended by developed as a regional thematic Perda No. 12 of 2014 was the area for the development of Greater Cirebon Metropolitan. The Greater Cirebon Metropolitan MCR area consists of 1 city and 4 (MCR). This is in response to the districts, namely Kuningan Regency, West Java Regional Regulation No. Cirebon City, Cirebon Regency, 12 of 2014 concerning Management Indramayu Regency and Majalengka of Metropolitan Development and Regency, where Cirebon City is a Development and Growth Centers in metropolitan core city. West Java. The principle of managing metropolitan LITERATURE REVIEW development and growth centers in The Cirebon Raya West Java is intended to: Metropolitan Area is a new area 1. Making the metropolitan that will grow. This can be shown area and center of growth based on the fact that the economic the center of West Java's growth rate in the MCR region is economic development still below the rate of economic 2. Making the metropolitan growth in West Java during the area and center of growth a period of 2012 - 2015. The low driving force for improving economic growth in the MCR region people's welfare is inseparable from the conditions 3. Making the metropolitan its territory. Cirebon Metropolitan

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Raya is an area that has not been related to investment plan used as an investment destination information and investment sector by investors both from within the data that has the potential to be country and abroad. Among developed that can be used as study regencies / cities in the MCR material in making investment district, only Cirebon Regency and decisions makes investors' interest Cirebon City attract investors in investing in Kuningan Regency to (Bappeda Provinsi Jawa Barat, be low. The low interest in 2016). investing is evident from the low In an effort to implement Regional investment realization embedded in Regulation No. 12 of 2014, Kuningan Regency. This makes especially the foundation of the Kuningan District less investment metropolitan area development - as competitiveness compared to other the center of economic districts / cities in the development, as a source of Ciayumajakuning region which will encouragement to improve be developed as a regional thematic community welfare, as a starting area of the development of Cirebon point for modernization of Raya Metropolitan as mandated by development in West Java, as well Perda No. 12 of 2014. as concrete steps to create The low investment sustainable development in creating competitiveness in Kuningan a metropolitan area become a Regency makes Kuningan Regency a center of growth, then one the way low level of economic growth. To that can be done is to encourage answer the goal of establishing economic growth in the Cirebon Raya Metropolitan as a metropolitan area. center for economic development, Investment will greatly affect accelerated development is needed the level of economic growth that to increase economic growth in will be achieved by a region. Kuningan Regency as one of the Research conducted by Maulana Greater Cirebon Metropolitan Area (2013) and Suryono (2011) provide a by increasing investment conclusion that investment has a realization. Because one of the positive and significant effect on determinants of economic growth is economic growth. The amount of investment, an analysis of the investment in an area will affect investment needs plan and data on the level of aggregate demand investment sectors that are which will ultimately affect the potential to be developed in level of output produced. Kuningan District are needed. In Kuningan Regency as one of the order for the target to be regencies located in the Cirebon determined realistically an indicator Metropolitan Area Raya still has a related to investment is needed. low investment amount compared The indicator needed is Incremental to other municipal districts in the Capital Output Ratio (ICOR) or the MCR region (West Java Province ratio between additional output and BKPPMD). The unavailability of data additional capital. If an area has an

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ICOR number, then the region will -Data not find it difficult to determine the The study was conducted in amount of investment needed to Kuningan Regency in 1 (one) year. pursue the desired economic growth The population in this study is target. The smaller the ICOR value Sectoral GRDP calculated based on the greater the productivity and the constant price of 2000 as well efficiency of the investment as investment data in both Kuningan invested.Investment will strengthen District and West Java Province. In economic growth by bringing more this study no sample is needed input into the production process. because the overall object of Improving the investment climate is research can be reached by the an important task for every researcher. The population studied government, especially districts / is the GRDP of all sectors calculated cities that have low investment based on constant prices and competitiveness such as Kuningan investment data in both the Regency. Kuningan District and West Java Based on this background, the Province for the 2014-2016 periods. authors made a study of the analysis Data collection techniques are by of the investment needs plan using means of library research, field the Incremental Capital Output research, observation, and Ratio (ICOR) method in Kuningan interviews. Regency in preparing themselves to become the Greater Cirebon -Analysis Metropolitan Area. This research is The analysis technique used in very important because through this this study is divided into several research accurate data about the stages. The initial stage in analyzing investment needs plan in Kuningan the investment needs plan requires Regency can be obtained and what an analysis of the calculation of investment sector data has the economic aspects, namely the potential to be developed in analysis of the rate of economic Kuningan Regency in preparing to growth, the results of this become the Greater Cirebon calculation are used as the basis for Metropolitan Area. calculating the Incremental Capital Output Ratio (ICOR) of Kuningan METHOD, DATA AND ANALYSIS district. After obtaining the ICOR -Research method value, the next step is to determine The research method used is the amount of long-term investment descriptive analytical method that needs in Kuningan district. Whereas is a method that aims to describe or to find out the potential investment provide an overview of an object of sector is used the Location Quotient research examined through (LQ) analysis by comparing the role collected samples or data and make of a sector in Kuningan Regency to generally accepted conclusions the role of a sector nationally at the (Sugiyono, 2009). provincial level. 1. Analysis of Economic Aspect Calculations (analysis of Economic

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Growth Rate)

2. Analysis of Calculation of until the end of 2030 by using Incremental Capital Output Ratio forecasting. (ICOR) The formula for calculating Incremental Capital Output Ratio the Investment Need Plan is: (ICOR) is a quantity that shows the amount of additional new capital I = k * g * Y (investment) needed to increase / Notes: increase one unit of output. ICOR is I = Amount of Investment also used to measure how much k = ICOR number investment is needed to increase g = Economic Growth Rate economic growth. Y = PDRB Formula: ICOR = K / ΔY 4. Anal sis of the Investment Leading In its development, the data Sector Location Quotient (LQ) used to calculate ICOR is no longer Location Quotient (LQ) is a just the addition of new capital comparison of the magnitude of the goods or changes in capital stock role of a sector in a certain area of alone but investment (I) invested the role of a sector nationally or in both by the public, private and a district on the role of a regional government entrepreneurs, so that or provincial level sector. Location the ICOR formula can be modified Quotient (LQ) analysis tool is as follows: intended to identify and formulate the composition and shift of the ICOR = I / ΔY basic sectors of a region by using Notes: GRDP data as an indicator of K= Change in Capital Value regional growth (Adoisasmita, 2005: I= Amount of Investment 29). ΔY= Economic Growth To find out the basic sector and non-base economy in an area 3. Analysis of Long Term Investment can refer to the formulation of Needs Plans Bendavid (1991) with the following Long-term investment needs are equation: investment plans that will be LQ = Si / S carried out in improving the Ni / N regional economy. The aim of the analysis of the plan for long-term Notes: investment needs is to find out how much investment value must be LQ = Location Quotien obtained to increase the economy Si = production value in an area during the study period, which is

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Neni Nurhayati, Dadang Suhendar Investment Need Plans Analysis Using ICOR Method in Kuningan Regency as Metropolitan Cirebon Raya sector in Kuningan Regency in - - If LQ = 1, the level of particular year specialization in sector I in Ni = total production value in Kuningan district is the same as the Kuningan Regency in a given year same sector in West Java. S = value of sector production in West Java in a given year N = total production value in West Java in a given year.

The criteria for measuring LQ values are generated as follows: - If LQ> 1 means the level of specialization in sector I in Kuningan district is greater than the same sector in West Java. So it can be concluded that this sector is a base sector and has the potential to be developed as a driver of the economy in the Kuningan district

- - If LQ <1 means the level of specialization in sector I in Kuningan Regency is smaller than the same sector in West Java. So that it can be concluded that this sector is a non-base sector and has no potential to be developed as a driver of the economy in the Kuningan district.

RESULT AND DISCUSSION - Results Table 1. Economic Growth in Kuningan Regency 2011- 2016 (Percentage)

Year PDRB 2011 5,62 2012 5,71 2013 6,25 2014 6,32 2015 6,38 2016 6,09 Average 06.06

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Source: Investment Services and One Stop Services in Kuningan Regency - West Java (2017)

The group that experienced positive growth consisted of 8 economic categories including: Table 2. Economic Category with Positive Growth in Kuningan District in 2016 No Category Percentage 1 Agriculture, Forestry 3,44 and Fisheries 2 Processing industry 0,79 3 Procurement of 2,88 Electricity and Gas 4 Large and Retail 1 Trade; motorcycle repair 5 Financial and Insurance 0,72 Services 6 Real Estate 1,7 7 Company Services 0,84 8 Government, Defense 0,78 and Mandatory Administration

Source: Investment Services and One Stop Services in Kuningan Regency - West Java (2017)

While the economic category that experienced a slowdown in growth included: Table 3. Economic category with slowing growth in Kuningan District in 2016 No Category Percentage 1 Mining and excavation -0,87 2 Water Supply, Waste, -0,3 Waste and Repeat Management 3 Construction -4,72 4 Transportation and -2,1 Warehousing 5 Provision of -0,56 Accommodation and Eating Drinks

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6 Information and -4,31 Communication 7 Education Services -4,44 8 Health Services and -4,91 Social Activities 9 Other services -3,67 Source: Investment Services and One Stop Services in Kuningan Regency - West Java (2017)

Kuningan Regency Investment The following is presented in the Realization of PMDN / PMA Kuningan table of recapitulation of Regency from 2011 to 2016 reached realization of PMA / PMDN Rp. 2.5 T with an investment target investments in 2011 to 2016 in of Rp. 1.7 T so that the target Kuningan Regency. achievement ratio reaches 149.82%.

Table 4. Recapitulation of Realization of PMA / PMDN Investment in 2011 up to 2016 in Kuningan Regency

Number Target of Realisation of Number of Percentage No Year of Investment Investment Companies (Rp) Employee (Rp) (Rp)

1 2011 790 1588 180.000.000.000 283.992.729.258 157.77 2 2012 664 1287 226.500.000.000 488.782.757.717 215.80 3 2013 695 2046 250.000.000.000 359.967.762.200 143.99 4 2014 760 4091 302.500.000.000 448.839.079.180 148.38.00 5 2015 570 2219 347.500.000.000 397.813.949.380 114.48.00 6 2016 1003 4131 399.500.000.000 576.411.621.949 144.28.00

Based on the table above, it can be abundant potential to be developed seen that the achievement of the further. These potentials such as largest investment shield during the water, agriculture, plantations, period of 2011 to December 2016 fisheries, industry and trade, even occurred in 2016 with the tourism such as historical tourism, realization of an investment of Rp. educational tourism, natural, rural, 576,477,621,949. However, this forest and water tourism are very figure is still minimal for the size of fascinating and have a great Kuningan Regency which attraction for nature lovers. incidentally has great potential to be developed. Kuningan Regency has natural resources (SDA) which boast as an area in the area east of the foot of Mount Ciremai with

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Table 5. Analysis of Calculation of Incremental Capital Output Ratio (ICOR) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Invest 283.992.7 488.782.7 359.967.7 448.839.0 397.813.9 576.411.6 ment 29.258 57.717 62.200 79.180 49.380 21.949 (Rp) PDRB 10.371.17 10.962.96 11.648.53 12.385.38 13.175.67 13.977. ADHK 5,26 4,00 9,43 2,11 1,72 774,24 2010 (Rp millio n) Δ 204.790.0 - 88.871.31 - 178.597.6 Invest 28.459 128.814.9 6.980 51.025.12 72.569 ment 95.517 9.800 (Rp) Δ 591.788,7 685.575,4 736.842,6 790.289,6 802.102,5 PDRB 4 3 8 1 2 ADHK 2010 (Rp millio n) ICOR 0,82 0,52 0,61 0,5 0,72 Average of ICOR 0.63 Based on the table above, it can be seen that the highest ICOR during the observation period of 2012 to 2016 occurred in 2012 with an ICOR value of 0.82. However, the lowest

ICOR occurred in 2015. Thus the ICOR average in Kuningan Regency during the observation period was 2011 to 2016 amounting to 0.63

Analysis of Long-Term Investment Needs Plans Table 6. Plan for Long Term Investment Needs Kuningan Regency until 2030 Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Economic growth 6,5 6,5 6,5 6,5 6,5 6,5 6,5 (%) PDRB ADHK 14866,6 16862,09 17958,12 (Billion Rupiah 15832,95 19125,406 20368,558 21692,514 2 2 8 Rp) ICOR 0,63 0,63 0,63 0,63 0,63 0,63 0,63 Investment needs 608,788 648,3593 690,5026 735,3853 783,18539 834,09244 888,30845

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(Billion Rupiah) 09 1 7 4

Year 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Economic growth 6,5 6,5 6,5 6,5 6,5 6,5 6,5 (%) PDRB ADHK 23102,5 24604,19 26203,46 27906,68 (Billion Rupiah 29720,624 31652,465 33709,875 27 2 4 9 Rp) ICOR 0,63 0,63 0,63 0,63 0,63 0,63 0,63 Investment needs 946,048 1007,541 1073,031 1142,778 1217,0596 1296,1684 1380,4194 (Billion Rupiah) 5 7 9 9

Source: Analyzed data

As the effort of Kuningan Regency in constant ICOR value of 0.63 per spurring development, the table year, the amount of investment above is useful for the target of needs to be made is Rp. 690 M. economic growth rate with a certain Likewise for the next year period if amount. The above table illustrates it is assumed to be the same then if in 2019 expected economic the amount of investment needs growth is 6.5% (due to the average can be projected up to 2030. economic growth of 6.06%) and the

Analysis of the Investment Leading Sector Location Quotient (LQ) Table 7. Location Quotient (LQ) of Kuningan Regency 2011 – 2016. Location Quotient (LQ) Economic category PDRB Average Notes 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Agriculture, Forestry 0,142 0,146 0,147 0,144 0,143 0,143 0,140 0,144 Basis and Fisheries Mining and excavation 0,042 0,045 0,050 0,053 0,053 0,053 0,053 0,050 Non Basis Processing industry 0,004 0,004 0,003 0,004 0,004 0,004 0,004 0,004 Non Basis Procurement of 0,012 0,013 0,013 0,013 0,013 0,013 0,014 0,013 Non Basis Electricity and Gas Water Supply, Waste 0,053 0,053 0,054 0,054 0,053 0,051 0,051 0,053 Basis Management, Waste and recycling Construction 0,053 0,051 0,048 0,049 0,049 0,049 0,047 0,049 Basis Large and Retail 0,052 0,052 0,049 0,049 0,049 0,048 0,047 0,049 Basis Trade, Car and Motorcycle Repair Transportation and 0,137 0,131 0,127 0,130 0,128 0,152 0,149 0,128 Basis Warehousing Provision of 0,051 0,051 0,051 0,051 0,050 0,050 0,049 0,051 Non Basis Accommodation and Eating Drinks

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Information and 0,083 0,072 0,072 0,071 0,069 0,067 0,065 0,072 Basis Communication Financial and 0,096 0,097 0,097 0,094 0,092 0,092 0,088 0,094 Basis Insurance Services Real estate 0,129 0,131 0,133 0,133 0,131 0,128 0,128 0,131 Basis Company Services 0,046 0,045 0,046 0,045 0,044 0,043 0,043 0,044 Basis Government 0,099 0,105 0,104 0,106 0,106 0,100 0,099 0,103 Basis administration, Defense, and Mandatory Social Security Education Services 0,149 0,149 0,126 0,147 0,154 0,160 0,165 0,142 Basis Health Services and 0,098 0,099 0,099 0,103 0,100 0,098 0,097 0,099 Basis Social Activities Other services 0,090 0,005 0,092 0,092 0,093 0,094 0,094 0,076 Basis

Source: BPS of Kuningan Regency (analyzed data)

Based on the table above, it can be and Mandatory Social concluded as follows: Security 1. Kuningan Regency has 11. Educational Services economic potential which 12. Health Services and falls into the category of Social Activities superior economy when 13. Other Services compared to the conditions 2. Kuningan Regency has in the West Java Province as economic potential which is a whole. included in the non-superior The 13 categories are economic category when 1. Agriculture, Forestry compared to the conditions and Fisheries in the West Java Province as 2. Water Procurement, a whole. Waste Management, The 4 categories include: Waste and recycling 1. Mining and quarrying 3. Construction 2. Processing Industry 4. Large and Retail 3. Procurement of Trade, Car and Electricity and Gas Motorcycle Repair 4. Provision of 5. Transportation and Accommodation and Warehousing Eating Drinks 6. Information and Nevertheless, this non- Communication superior sector category that 7. Financial and is considered to be less insurance services potential cannot be ignored. 8. Real estate Because it is possible to have 9. Company Services assistance from a superior 10. Government sector that can help the administration, Defense growth and development of

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the non-superior sector growth in the face of Greater become a new leading Cirebon Metropolitan. sector. The strategies that can be 3. The highest order of LQ from carried out by Kuningan Regency several sector bases in include increasing investment Kuningan Regency is: attractiveness focused on the 1. Educational Services Education Services, Transportation 2. Transportation and and Warehousing sector and Warehousing agricultural and tourism products 3. Agriculture, Forestry processing industries based on and Fisheries Agriculture, and the potential of -Discussions natural resources in order to The investment strategy in increase regional economic growth. the base sector in Kuningan Regency To support the improvement of the is focused on development in the investment climate in Kuningan Education, Transportation and Regency, it is also necessary to Warehousing, and Agriculture, collaborate with the government Forestry and Fisheries sectors. The and the private sector in the education sector is the capital to provision of investment, especially improve the quality of human leading sector investments that resources in Kuningan Regency. The have high potential to be Transportation and Warehousing developed. In addition, there is also Sector is intended to facilitate a need to improve various aspects travel traffic that supports tourism of both institutions and adequate access. While the Agriculture, regulations and support the creation Forestry and Fisheries sector is of a good investment climate in focused on increasing agricultural Kuningan Regency by considering a productivity, agricultural products SWOT analysis so that appropriate processing industries, and strategies can be drawn up to agriculture-based tourism and increase interest in investing in natural resource potential. Kuningan Regency. Investment in Kuningan Regency is focused on investments CONCLUSION that are able to support Kuningan In commemorating Cirebon Regency as the main buffer zone of Raya as Metropolitan area, the the Greater Cirebon Metropolitan. investment in the base sector in The linkages between Education Kuningan Regency is focused on the Services, Transportation and development of the Education, Warehousing, and Agriculture, Transportation and Warehousing Forestry, and Fisheries are very sector and agricultural and tourism much needed in Kuningan Regency. products processing industries based The existence of these 3 leading on Agriculture, and the potential of sectors allows Kuningan Regency to natural resources. Investment in be able to increase economic Kuningan Regency is focused on investments that are able to

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support Kuningan Regency as the of both institutions and adequate main buffer zone of the Greater regulations and support the creation Cirebon Metropolitan. The linkages of a good investment climate in between Education Services, Kuningan Regency by considering a Transportation and Warehousing, SWOT analysis so that appropriate and Agriculture, Forestry, and strategies can be drawn up to Fisheries are very much needed in increase interest in investing in Kuningan Regency. The existence of Kuningan Regency. these 3 leading sectors allows Kuningan Regency to be able to REFERENCES increase economic growth in the Rencana kebutuhan Investasi face of Greater Cirebon Metropolitan Metropolitan. BODEBEKKARPUR tahun 2016. Retrieved from http://bappeda.jabarpro IMPLICATION/ LIMITATION AND v.go.id/wp- SUGGESTION content/uploads/old_do The limitation in this study is c/Laporan_Akhir_Rencan that the observation period is not a_Kebutuhan_Investasi_ long, besides that the research Metropolitan_BODEBEKK location is only limited to Kuningan ARPUR_2016.pdf. Regency while the MCR area covers 4 districts and 1 city. Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Based on the results of the Kuningan. (2011, 2012, 2013, study, the strategies that can be 2014, 2015, 2016). Kuningan carried out by Kuningan Regency in dalam Angka 2011. commemorating Cirebon Raya as Kuningan: Badan Pusat Metropolitan area include increasing Statistik Kabupaten investment attractiveness focused Kuningan. on the Education, Transportation and Warehousing sector, and BPS Provinsi Jawa Barat. (2016). agricultural and tourism products PDRB menurut lapangan processing industries based on usaha Provinsi Jawa Agriculture, and natural resource Barat. Bandung: Badan potential in order to improve Pusat Statistik Provinsi regional economic growth. To Jawa Barat support the improvement of the investment climate in Kuningan Maulana. (2013). Analisis Regency, it is also necessary to Pengaruh Investasi, collaborate with the government Tenaga Kerja, dan and the private sector in the Tingkat Pendidikan provision of investment, especially Terhadap Pertumbuhan leading sector investments that Ekonomi Jawa Barat. have high potential to be Perda No. 12 Tahun 2014 developed. In addition, there is also tentang Pengelolaan a need to improve various aspects

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