AN ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS 0.F INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT With special Reference to the Doon Valley, India Phase I VOLUME / THE ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT I nternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria UN I DO Contract No. 85/82 (US/GL0/85/039) Principal Investigators R. E. Munn, V. Fedorov Collaborators H. Dobesch, S. Kaden, M. Lenko, J.C. Nautiyal, 6.Padmanabhamurty, M. Piringer, J. Richards, A. K. Roy, M. D. Shedha, T. Thadhani and R. Tilak THE SI'RUCTURE OF THE REPORI' VOLUME I I! (The Environmental Assessment) tiPhysiography Environmentally-Related Issues ' Conceptual Framework Recommended Secbral Engineering Approaches I Conclusion VOLUME I11 VOLUME I1 (Computer-oriented activities) Environmental Impact Assessment Software Tmnsferred to Indian Core Group Modelling and Statistical Analysis iData Bank II Recommendations and Suggestions FOREWORD The Government of India (Department of Environment) has recently become concerned about the environmental problems which could be created by planned industrialization in the Doon Valley, located about 200 km north of New Delhi. Of special concern is environmental degradation due to limestone quarrying and lime- stone processing. Through the aegis of UNDP and UNIDO, IIASA was awarded a 7-month contract in September, 1985 to undertake Phase I of an assessment of environmental impacts of industrial development in the Doon Valley, India. The work envisaged was as follows: a) Development of a conceptual framework for an assessment of environmental impacts of industrial development in the Doon Valley; b) Preparation of a baseline report describing present environmental conditions and past trends in the Doon Valley; c) Development of computer software and provision of demonstration models for environmental management in the Doon Valley and elsewhere; d) Provision of advice to the Indian Department of the Environment with respect to setting up a supporting structure and facilities in India (e.g., national scientific team, monitoring systems); e) On-the-job training of suitable national counterparts; f) Preparation of a comprehensive work programme for the second phase of the project. The present Phase I Report is in three parts. Volume 1 covers items (a), (b), (d), (e), and (f); Volume 2 relates to item (c); Volume 3 contains several papers contributed by the collaborators listed on the cover page. The principal investigators acknowledge the help that they have received from many persons during this study. (See Appen- dices 1 and 2 for lists of persons who provided advice.) Professor Fedorov visited India in June and November 1985 while Professor Munn was there in January 1986. These visits were greatly facilitated by UNIDO officers in Vienna (Mr. J.H. Paschke) and New Delhi (Dr. K. Hussain and Mr. B. Singh) and by Dr. S. Maudgal and his colleagues in the Indian Department of the Environment. During the course of these visits, discussions were held with a number of persons in government services and the universities, and it became clear that there are some very competent ecologists, engineers, and environmental scientists in India. One of the main roles to be played by IIASA in the Doon Valley study is that of a catalyst. A draft of this report was reviewed at a meeting held at IIASA on 3-5 March, 1986. Four members of the Indian Core Group for the Doon Valley IIASA/UNIDO Study were able to partici- pate. That meeting contributed substantially to the focus of the study, and the principal investigators are indebted to the participants. However, errors and omissions are the responsi- bility of the authors. Appendix 1 gives a list of participants at the review meeting. Finally it should be mentioned that Volume 1 contains not only a description of baseline and historical conditions with resulting findings and recommendations, but also conceptual presentations to serve as a reference for future activities of the Indian Doon Valley Core Group. This is also true for several types of impacts that are only indirectly related to industrial development. SUMMARY OF VOLUME I People living in the Doon Valley believe that environmental quality has deteriorated during living memory. This perception appears to be supported by the available quantitative data for the Valley. For example, the forest cover decreased by about 25% between 1972 and 1982 (Sharma and Sharma, 1983) while groundwater levels in the City of Dehra Dun have reportedly lowered by about 15 m in the last decade (see contribution by Roy in Volume 3). The most visible signs of environmental deterio- ration are the scarring of the Himalaya slopes due to limestone quarrying, and the billowing white smoke downwind of the lime- stone kilns. However, an important reason for the general decline in environmental quality is population pressure, particu- larly within Dehra Dun City and vicinity. In Chapters 5 and 6, the results of a baseline study of environmental quality are given. Although the data available to the Principal Investigators are rather limited, there are clear signs of environmental degradation in the Valley. 1. A recent drop in the water-table in the vicinity of Dehra Dun during the dry seasons. 2. Visible scarring of valley slopes due to limestone quarrying, with resultant soil erosion and decreasing forest cover. 3. Poor air quality, particularly in the Dehra Dun - Mussoorie pocket, where limestone kilns are operating. 4. Deforestation due to increased firewood demand. 5. Declines in the numbers of valued species of birds, animals and fish. A major cause for this drop in environmental quality is the increasing population of people and livestock in the Valley. For example, the growth rate of the Dehra Dun urban agglomeration between 1971 and 1981 was 44%, which was higher than the national average (DOE, 1984). Industry is only one of several causes of environmental deterioration in the Doon Valley. It is therefore essential that the environmental impacts of industrial development be viewed within a comprehensive land-use management framework. One such framework reproduced on the following page is based on the idea of sustainable redevelopment where sustainable applies to both ecological and socio-economic processes. Here it should be emphasized that with the technology available today, industry need not cause harm to the environment. Furthermore, industry brings employment opportunities and income to surrounding areas. Redevelopment of the Doon Valley requires a thorough understanding of the carrying capacity of the region. As suggested in the Figure, however, carrying capacity is not a fixed quantity but depends on: - vii - CONTROL BOUNDARY I7 REHAB1 LITATION - DI RECT (REFORESTATION) OR INDIRECT 1 I (CONTROL OF INDUSTRIAL POLLUTANTS) PRIMARY [ NDUSTRIAL INCOME EhV1 RONI4ENTAL OPT1CNS KQIJ IREMENTS POLICY-DRIVEN MOVES TO PURSUE AVERAGE YEARLY INCOME PARTICULAR DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS OF VALLEY RESIDENTS REPRESENTING ROSS CLEAN AIR, PRODUCTIVE PURCHASING PaWER SOIL AND AVAILABILITY OF CLEAN WATER PRIMARY PRODUCTION BIOMASS FOR FOOD AND ENERGY VARIABLE CARRYING CAPACITY PURCHASABLE COMMODTTIES VARIOUS COMBINATIONS OF LEVELS OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY AND INCOME TO SUSTAIN POPULATION ABOVE SOME SPECIFIED BASELINE LIFESTYLE INM IGRATI ON A tentative conceptual framework for environmental management in the Doon Valley. - viii - -- the levels of environmental quality deemed to be acceptable by society; -- the lifestyle expectat.ions (incomes, food, shelter, edu- cation, etc.) of society; -- the investments that society is prepared to make on environ- mental protection and pollution control equipment; -- externalities such as new technologies, changes in world trade patterns, etc. From the point of view of carrying capacity, the most limiting factor for further industrial development in the Doon Valley is lack of water during the dry season. Although monsoon rains are very large, most of the water evaporates or is lost as runoff. The highest priority should therefore be given to the design of engineering works that will improve the water storage capacity of the Valley. These facilities must be based on understanding, monitoring and modelling the hydrologic cycle. Several practical suggestions for improving the hydrologic carrying capacity of the watershed are as follows: -- Control of future tubewell development (e.g., staggering of wells to tap different aquifers); -- Construction of underground water storage systems; -- Discouragement of plans to locate water-intensive industries in the Valley. Other carrying capacity factors that limit development in the Valley include: -- Migration of people into the Valley; (By improving environ- mental and economic conditions, planners may encourage immigration, severely taxing the carrying capacity of the region.) -- The poor assimilative capacity of the Valley atmosphere, placing an upper limit on the pollution that can be emitted if air quality standards are to be met; -- Availability of arable land; -- Milk and fuel wood; (These products cannot be imported economically into the Valley, and thus there is a limiting population that can be sustained unless improved or alterna- tive technologies are used.) -- Livestock populations; (Stall feeding could increase the forestry carrying capacity of the Valley with respect to this factor. ) -- Economic factors such as transport costs to distant markets and within urban areas, energy costs, availability of raw materials, waste disposal facilities, etc. In all of these cases, carrying capacity/sustainability studies