MULTIHAZARD RISK ATLAS of MALDIVES Climate and Geophysical Hazards—Volume II

MULTIHAZARD RISK ATLAS OF MALDIVES Climate and Geophysical Hazards—Volume II

March 2020 MULTIHAZARD RISK ATLAS OF MALDIVES Climate and Geophysical Hazards—Volume II

March 2020 Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)

Some rights reserved. Published in 2020.

ISBN 978-92-9262-045-5 (print); 978-92-9262-046-2 (electronic); 978-92-9262-047-9 (ebook) Publication Stock No. TCS200050 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS200050

The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.

ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.

By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.

This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisions and terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess.

This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributed to another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material.

Please contact [email protected] if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wish to obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use the ADB logo.

Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda.

Notes: In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars. The maps presented in this atlas reflect airports based on 2017 data from the Civil Aviation Authority of Maldives.

On the cover: An aerial view shows 1 of 26 natural atolls that make up Maldives, which also includes nearly 1,200 small coral islands and some of the world’s most beautiful beaches. Recognized as the seventh-largest in the world, the coral reefs and associated ecosystems of Maldives are key foundations for food security and means of livelihood. Yet, they are considered as among the most vulnerable to climate change (photo by Roberta Gerpacio).

Printed on recycled paper Contents iii

Tables and Maps v

Foreword ix

Acknowledgments x

Abbreviations xi

Climate 1

Dynamic Climate 2

Automatic Weather Stations and Meteorological 3 Observation Stations

Historical Annual Climate 17 Rainfall 17 Temperature 17

Historical Seasonal Climate 20 Seasonal Average Rainfall (1970–2005) 21 Seasonal Average Temperature (1970–2005) 26

Future Climate 31 Average Annual Rainfall Projection (RCP 4.5) 32 Average Seasonal Rainfall Projection (DJF, RCP 4.5) 37 Average Seasonal Rainfall Projection (MAM, RCP 4.5) 42 Average Seasonal Rainfall Projection (JJA, RCP 4.5) 47 Average Seasonal Rainfall Projection (SON, RCP 4.5) 52 Average Annual Rainfall Projection (RCP 8.5) 57 Average Seasonal Rainfall Projection (DJF, RCP 8.5) 62 Average Seasonal Rainfall Projection (MAM, RCP 8.5) 67 iv TablesContents and Maps

Average Seasonal Rainfall Projection (JJA, RCP 8.5) 72 Average Seasonal Rainfall Projection (SON, RCP 8.5) 77 Average Annual Temperature Projection (RCP 4.5) 82 Average Seasonal Temperature Projection (DJF, RCP 4.5) 87 Average Seasonal Temperature Projection (MAM, RCP 4.5) 92 Average Seasonal Temperature Projection (JJA, RCP 4.5) 97 Average Seasonal Temperature Projection (SON, RCP 4.5) 102 Average Annual Temperature Projection (RCP 8.5) 107 Average Seasonal Temperature Projection (DJF, RCP 8.5) 112 Average Seasonal Temperature Projection (MAM, RCP 8.5) 117 Average Seasonal Temperature Projection (JJA, RCP 8.5) 122 Average Seasonal Temperature Projection (SON, RCP 8.5) 127

Summary of Observations for Rainfall 132

Summary of Observations for Temperature 133

Geophysical Hazards 134

Map Data Sources 139

References 140 Tables and Maps v

Tables II.1 Islands with Weather Stations 3 II.2 Variation in Rainfall Patterns across Space, Time, 132 and Representative Concentration Pathways II.3 Variation in Temperature Patterns across Space, Time, 133 and Representative Concentration Pathways

Maps II.1 Maldives, Meteorological Observation Stations 4 II.2 Addu City, Meteorological Observation Stations 5 II.3 Alifu Alifu Atoll, Meteorological Observation Stations 6 II.4 Alifu Dhaalu Atoll, Meteorological Observation Stations 7 II.5 Gaafu Alifu Atoll, Meteorological Observation Stations 8 II.6 Gaafu Dhaalu Atoll, Meteorological Observation Stations 9 II.7 Haa Alifu Atoll, Meteorological Observation Stations 10 II.8 Haa Dhaalu Atoll, Meteorological Observation Stations 11 II.9 Laamu Atoll, Meteorological Observation Stations 12 II.10 North Malé Atoll, Meteorological Observation Stations 13 II.11 Raa Atoll, Meteorological Observation Stations 14 II.12 Thaa Atoll, Meteorological Observation Stations 15 II.13 Vaavu Atoll, Meteorological Observation Stations 16 II.14 Maldives, Annual Average Rainfall (1970–2005) 18 II.15 Maldives, Annual Average Temperature (1970–2005) 19 II.16 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (1970–2005) 21 II.17 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (DJF 1970–2005) 22 vi Tables and Maps

II.18 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (MAM 1970–2005) 23 II.19 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 1970–2005) 24 II.20 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (SON 1970–2005) 25 II.21 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (1970–2005) 26 II.22 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (DJF 1970–2005) 27 II.23 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (MAM 1970–2005) 28 II.24 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (JJA 1970–2005) 29 II.25 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (SON 1970–2005) 30 II.26 Maldives, Annual Average Rainfall Projection (RCP 4.5) 32 II.27 Maldives, Annual Average Rainfall (2011–2020, RCP 4.5) 33 II.28 Maldives, Annual Average Rainfall (2021–2030, RCP 4.5) 34 II.29 Maldives, Annual Average Rainfall (2031–2040, RCP 4.5) 35 II.30 Maldives, Annual Average Rainfall (2041–2050, RCP 4.5) 36 II.31 Maldives, Average Seasonal Rainfall Projection (DJF, RCP 4.5) 37 II.32 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (DJF 2011–2020, RCP 4.5) 38 II.33 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (DJF 2021–2030, RCP 4.5) 39 II.34 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (DJF 2031–2040, RCP 4.5) 40 II.35 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (DJF 2041–2050, RCP 4.5) 41 II.36 Maldives, Average Seasonal Rainfall Projection (MAM, RCP 4.5) 42 II.37 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (MAM 2011–2020, RCP 4.5) 43 II.38 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (MAM 2021–2030, RCP 4.5) 44 II.39 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (MAM 2031–2040, RCP 4.5) 45 II.40 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (MAM 2041–2050, RCP 4.5) 46 II.41 Maldives, Average Seasonal Rainfall Projection (JJA, RCP 4.5) 47 II.42 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2011–2020, RCP 4.5) 48 II.43 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2021–2030, RCP 4.5) 49 II.44 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2031–2040, RCP 4.5) 50 II.45 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2041–2050, RCP 4.5) 51 II.46 Maldives, Average Seasonal Rainfall Projection (SON, RCP 4.5) 52 II.47 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (SON 2011–2020, RCP 4.5) 53 II.48 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (SON 2021–2030, RCP 4.5) 54 II.49 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (SON 2031–2040, RCP 4.5) 55 II.50 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (SON 2041–2050, RCP 4.5) 56 II.51 Maldives, Average Annual Rainfall Projection (RCP 8.5) 57 II.52 Maldives, Annual Average Rainfall (2011–2020, RCP 8.5) 58 II.53 Maldives, Annual Average Rainfall (2021–2030, RCP 8.5) 59 II.54 Maldives, Annual Average Rainfall (2031–2040, RCP 8.5) 60 II.55 Maldives, Annual Average Rainfall (2041–2050, RCP 8.5) 61 II.56 Maldives, Average Seasonal Rainfall Projection (DJF, RCP 8.5) 62 Tables and Maps vii

II.57 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (DJF 2011–2020, RCP 8.5) 63 II.58 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (DJF 2021–2030, RCP 8.5) 64 II.59 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (DJF 2031–2040, RCP 8.5) 65 II.60 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (DJF 2041–2050, RCP 8.5) 66 II.61 Maldives, Average Seasonal Rainfall Projection (MAM, RCP 8.5) 67 II.62 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (MAM 2011–2020, RCP 8.5) 68 II.63 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (MAM 2021–2030, RCP 8.5) 69 II.64 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (MAM 2031–2040, RCP 8.5) 70 II.65 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (MAM 2041–2050, RCP 8.5) 71 II.66 Maldives, Average Seasonal Rainfall Projection (JJA, RCP 8.5) 72 II.67 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2011–2020, RCP 8.5) 73 II.68 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2021–2030, RCP 8.5) 74 II.69 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2031–2040, RCP 8.5) 75 II.70 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2041–2050, RCP 8.5) 76 II.71 Maldives, Average Seasonal Rainfall Projection (SON, RCP 8.5) 77 II.72 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (SON 2011–2020, RCP 8.5) 78 II.73 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (SON 2021–2030, RCP 8.5) 79 II.74 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (SON 2031–2040, RCP 8.5) 80 II.75 Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (SON 2041–2050, RCP 8.5) 81 II.76 Maldives, Average Annual Temperature Projection (RCP 4.5) 82 II.77 Maldives, Annual Average Temperature (2011–2020, RCP 4.5) 83 II.78 Maldives, Annual Average Temperature (2021–2030, RCP 4.5) 84 II.79 Maldives, Annual Average Temperature (2031–2040, RCP 4.5) 85 II.80 Maldives, Annual Average Temperature (2041–2050, RCP 4.5) 86 II.81 Maldives, Average Seasonal Temperature Projection (DJF, RCP 4.5) 87 II.82 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (DJF 2011–2020, RCP 4.5) 88 II.83 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (DJF 2021–2030, RCP 4.5) 89 II.84 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (DJF 2031–2040, RCP 4.5) 90 II.85 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (DJF 2041–2050, RCP 4.5) 91 II.86 Maldives, Average Seasonal Temperature Projection (MAM, RCP 4.5) 92 II.87 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (MAM 2011–2020, RCP 4.5) 93 II.88 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (MAM 2021–2030, RCP 4.5) 94 II.89 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (MAM 2031–2040, RCP 4.5) 95 II.90 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (MAM 2041–2050, RCP 4.5) 96 II.91 Maldives, Average Seasonal Temperature Projection (JJA, RCP 4.5) 97 II.92 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (JJA 2011–2020, RCP 4.5) 98 II.93 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (JJA 2021–2030, RCP 4.5) 99 II.94 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (JJA 2031–2040, RCP 4.5) 100 II.95 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (JJA 2041–2050, RCP 4.5) 101 viii Tables and Maps

II.96 Maldives, Average Seasonal Temperature Projection (SON, RCP 4.5) 102 II.97 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (SON 2011–2020, RCP 4.5) 103 II.98 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (SON 2021–2030, RCP 4.5) 104 II.99 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (SON 2031–2040, RCP 4.5) 105 II.100 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (SON 2041–2050, RCP 4.5) 106 II.101 Maldives, Average Annual Temperature Projection (RCP 8.5) 107 II.102 Maldives, Annual Average Temperature (2011–2020, RCP 8.5) 108 II.103 Maldives, Annual Average Temperature (2021–2030, RCP 8.5) 109 II.104 Maldives, Annual Average Temperature (2031–2040, RCP 8.5) 110 II.105 Maldives, Annual Average Temperature (2041–2050, RCP 8.5) 111 II.106 Maldives, Average Seasonal Temperature Projection (DJF, RCP 8.5) 112 II.107 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (DJF 2011–2020, RCP 8.5) 113 II.108 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (DJF 2021–2030, RCP 8.5) 114 II.109 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (DJF 2031–2040, RCP 8.5) 115 II.110 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (DJF 2041–2050, RCP 8.5) 116 II.111 Maldives, Average Seasonal Temperature Projection (MAM, RCP 8.5) 117 II.112 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (MAM 2011–2020, RCP 8.5) 118 II.113 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (MAM 2021–2030, RCP 8.5) 119 II.114 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (MAM 2031–2040, RCP 8.5) 120 II.115 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (MAM 2041–2050, RCP 8.5) 121 II.116 Maldives, Average Seasonal Temperature Projection (JJA, RCP 8.5) 122 II.117 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (JJA 2011–2020, RCP 8.5) 123 II.118 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (JJA 2021–2030, RCP 8.5) 124 II.119 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (JJA 2031–2030, RCP 8.5) 125 II.120 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (JJA 2041–2050, RCP 8.5) 126 II.121 Maldives, Average Seasonal Temperature Projection (SON, RCP 8.5) 127 II.122 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (SON 2011–2020, RCP 8.5) 128 II.123 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (SON 2021–2030, RCP 8.5) 129 II.124 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (SON 2031–2040, RCP 8.5) 130 II.125 Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (SON 2041–2050, RCP 8.5) 131 II.126 Maldives, Cyclonic Wind Hazard Zone 135 II.127 Maldives, Surge Hazard Zone 136 II.128 Maldives, Seismic Hazard Zone 137 II.129 Maldives, Tsunami Hazard Zone 138 Foreword ix

aldives is among the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change as it is a small island nation with extremely low elevations. Maldives is also very vulnerable to impacts of rising air and sea Msurface temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns. Climate change impacts will therefore impose significant negative consequences on the Maldivian economy and society. Some of the priority vulnerabilities to climate change are land loss and beach erosion, infrastructure damage, degradation of coral reefs, and adverse impacts on water resources, food security, human health, and the overall economy.

Sustainable coastal resources management is of particular importance to Maldives, such that all regulations involving various development activities have coastal components. Despite the government’s continued efforts in improving and sustaining coastal resources management, critical issues remain, such as the need for systematized coastal monitoring, clear definition of coastal boundaries and coastal development, enhanced regulatory and monitoring capacities for coastal resources protection, and sustainable long-term strategies on land reclamation and marine area protection. At a time when climate is rapidly changing and extreme weather events are frequently occurring, the critical roles that marine and coastal environments play in mitigating and adapting to climate change need to be sufficiently documented and properly recognized. It is therefore essential for Maldives to develop and establish a comprehensive digital database of marine and coastal ecosystem features and services that can be regularly monitored.

The Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives was developed through the project “Establishing a National Geospatial Database for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into Development Activities and Policies in Maldives” under the Asian Development Bank’s regional knowledge and support (capacity development) technical assistance Action on Climate Change in South Asia (2013–2018). This five-volume atlas aims to promote the sustainable development of coastal and marine ecosystems and their various components, by enhancing the awareness of stakeholders on and enjoining them to address climate and disaster risks (including hazards, exposures, and vulnerabilities) to which ecosystems are exposed. The atlas presents spatial information and maps necessary for assessing future development investments in terms of their risks to climate and geophysical hazards.

The target audience of the Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives are the concerned stakeholders with current or planned development activities in the country, including public and private sectors, nongovernment organizations, research and academic community, development partner agencies, other financial institutions, and the general public. The atlas will also be a useful reference for other developing countries with similar geographical and environmental conditions, particularly small island developing states. It is envisioned that the atlas will significantly contribute to rendering important sector development investments more resilient to hazard-specific risk scenarios in the short, medium, and long terms.

H.E. Dr. Hussain Rasheed Hassan Shixin Chen Minister Vice-President for Operations 1 Ministry of Environment, Malé Asian Development Bank, Manila x Acknowledgments

Government Ministries, Departments, and Agencies in Maldives Civil Aviation Authority Land and Survey Authority Marine Research Institute Meteorological Service Ministry of Economic Development Ministry of Education Ministry of Environment Ministry of Fisheries, Marine Resources and Agriculture Ministry of Health Ministry of National Planning and Infrastructure Ministry of Tourism National Bureau of Statistics National Disaster Management Center

International Institutions Manila Observatory Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, University of Queensland, Australia SANDER + PARTNER United Nations Development Programme

International Institutions in Maldives International Union for Conservation of Nature, Maldives United Nations Development Programme, Maldives

National Consultant Team Ahmed Jameel, Integrated Coastal Zone Management Specialist Faruhath Jameel, Geographic Information Systems Specialist and Team Leader Hussain Naeem, Coastal Ecosystems and Biodiversity Specialist Mahmood Riyaz, Climate Change Risk Assessment Specialist Abbreviations xi

°C – Celsius

AWS – Automated Weather Station

BODC – British Oceanographic Data Centre

CAA – Maldives Civil Aviation Authority

DJF – December, January, February

GEBCO – General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans

GHCN – Global Historical Climatology Network

IHO – International Hydrographic Organization

IOC – Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission

JJA – June, July, August

MAM – March, April, May

ME – Ministry of Environment

MED – Ministry of Economic Development

MLSA – Maldives Land and Survey Authority mm/day – millimeter per day

MMS – Maldives Meteorological Service

RCP – Representative Concentration Pathway

SON – September, October, November

UNDP – United Nations Development Programme

UTM – Universal Transverse Mercator

WGS – World Geodetic System

Climate 1

This volume contains maps of the locations of weather monitoring stations and the historical climate and projected climate (average rainfall and temperature) based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Only the projected actual average annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature values were included in this risk atlas as these are simpler to interpret.

Clouds over Maldives. A satellite image showing dispersed clouds (photo by Jeff Schmaltz, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Rapid Response Team, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center). 2 Dynamic Climate

Maldivians enjoy mostly sunny days. Warm temperature (ranging from 26°C to 33°C) is experienced throughout the year, with little variation, for the entire stretch of Maldives (Moosa 2014).

While temperature stays relatively constant, the rainfall varies depending on the monsoon. Maldives has two monsoon seasons: (i) northeast monsoon or dry season, starting in November and lasting until April; and (ii) southwest monsoon, which brings rainfall from May to October. Rainfall varies across the year and latitude (Moosa 2014).

In Maldives, climate is an important element shaping present and future policies, actions, and decisions. It affects Maldives’ coastal and marine resources (Asian Development Bank 2015). Increased global temperature can raise sea levels and inundate the low-lying islands of the country (Khan et al. 2002). Furthermore, the corals would also be damaged by an increase in global temperatures. Water resources as well as agriculture also rely on sufficient precipitation to meet the water and food requirements of the communities. Natural flora and fauna require moderate climate to survive.

To prevent losses due to weather- and climate-related disaster events, it is important to monitor the weather parameters and evaluate the climatic trends in the country. This is done through data gathered from the automatic weather stations and meteorological observation stations scattered in different islands.

Rainbow in horizon. A beautiful rainbow visible in the horizon of a beach in Maldives. Rainbows are formed when there is a refraction and reflection of light in cloud droplets, forming a spectrum of light (photo by Michael Pfütze). Automatic Weather Stations and

Meteorological Observation Stations 3

Maldives has a total of 18 weather monitoring stations, 5 of which are meteorological observation stations (Table II.1). The locations of the weather monitoring stations are concentrated in the southern region, particularly in Addu and Gaafu Dhaalu atolls. Most of the meteorological observation stations are located in the capital islands and international airports (Map II.1).

Table II.1: Islands with Weather Stations

ATOLL Island Station Addu City Hithadhoo Automatic Weather Station Addu City Gan Meteorological Observation Station Addu City Meedhoo Automatic Weather Station Alifu Alifu Rasdhoo Automatic Weather Station Alifu Dhaalu Rangali Automatic Weather Station Gaafu Alifu Villingili Automatic Weather Station Gaafu Dhaalu Kaadedhdhoo Meteorological Observation Station Gaafu Dhaalu Gahdhoo Automatic Weather Station Gaafu Dhaalu Rodhavarrehaa Automatic Weather Station Haa Alifu Uligamu Automatic Weather Station Haa Dhaalu Hanimaadhoo Meteorological Observation Station Laamu Isdhoo Automatic Weather Station Laamu Kadhdhoo Meteorological Observation Station North Malé Banyan Tree Automatic Weather Station North Malé Malé Meteorological Observation Station Raa Vadhoo Automatic Weather Station Thaa Hirilandhoo Automatic Weather Station Vaavu Fulidhoo Automatic Weather Station

Source: Maldives Meteorological Service, 2017. 4 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: MeteorologicalMap II.1: Maldives, Observation Meteorological Stations Observation Stations

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

! HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

Legend ^ o

Administrative Area HAA o ! DHAALU ^ Administrative Atoll ATOLL í (HDh) ! SHAVIYANI ^ Atoll Capital Island ATOLL

(Sh) ^ City ^ o

NOONU Domestic Airport

6°0'0"N ! ATOLL o 6°0'0"N o (N) RAA ^ International Airport ATOLL ^ (R) LHAVIYANI Port ^! ATOLL í

(Lh) ! Automatic Weather Station (AWS) o ! ^ Meteorological Observation Station BAA Island Shoreline ATOLL ! NORTH (B) MALÉ Reef Boundary ATOLL (K) Water Body

ALIFU

ALIFU ^ ATOLL ^! ! o (AA) !! SOUTH í^ MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU ^

DHAALU !

! ATOLL o VAAVU (ADh) ^ ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) ^ ^ MEEMU

! ATOLL

DHAALU (M) ATOLL o (Dh) ^

! ! o THAA ^ ATOLL ! (Th)

2°0'0"N ^!o 2°0'0"N LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) ^!o

!^o !!

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh)

0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Go n) Data Sources: ^ BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry). Other data from Maldives agencies: CAA (airports); ME

025 50 100 150 (administrative areas, island shorelines, reef boundaries, and Kilometers ^! o ! water bodies); MED (ports); MLSA (atoll capital islands and WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) í! cities); and MMS (AWS and meteorological observation stations).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Automatic Weather Stations and Meteorological Observation Stations 5

Addu City: MeteorologicalMap II.2: Addu City, Observation Meteorological Stations Observation Stations

73°5'0"E 73°7'30"E 73°10'0"E 73°12'30"E 0°34'30"S 0°34'30"S

Meedhoo ! !S.Hithadhoo

Hulhudhoo ^ Hithadhoo

í 0°38'0"S 0°38'0"S

Maradhoo

Maradhoofeydhoo Feydhoo

Gan !o 0°41'30"S 0°41'30"S

Legend

Administrative Area

^ City o

International Airport 0°45'0"S 0°45'0"S í Port ¯ ! Automatic Weather Station (AWS) ! Meteorological Observation Station Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry). Island Shoreline Other data from Maldives agencies: CAA (airports); 0 1 2 4 ME (administrative areas, island shorelines, reef boundaries, Kilometers Reef Boundary and water bodies); MED (ports); MLSA (cities); and MMS (AWS and meteorological observation stations). WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N Water Body

73°5'0"E 73°7'30"E 73°10'0"E 73°12'30"E 6 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Alifu Alifu Atoll: Meteorological Observation Stations Map II.3: Alifu Alifu Atoll, Meteorological Observation Stations

72°44'30"E 72°51'0"E 72°57'30"E 73°4'0"E

Thohdoo 4°21'0"N 4°21'0"N

Aa.Rasdhoo^!RASDHOO

Ukulhas Legend 4°12'30"N Administrative Area 4°12'30"N Mathiveri Bodufolhudhoo ^ Atoll Capital Island ! Automatic Weather Station (AWS) Island Shoreline Reef Boundary Water Body 4°4'0"N Feridhoo ¯ 4°4'0"N

0 3 6 12 Kilometers

WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N

Maalhos

Data Sources: Himendhoo BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry). Other data from Maldives agencies: ME (administrative areas, island shorelines, reef boundaries, and water bodies); 3°55'30"N MLSA (atoll capital islands); and MMS (AWS). 3°55'30"N

72°44'30"E 72°51'0"E 72°57'30"E 73°4'0"E Automatic Weather Stations and Meteorological Observation Stations 7

Alifu Dhaalu:Map MeteorologicalII.4: Alifu Dhaalu Atoll, Observation Meteorological Observation Stations Stations

72°38'0"E 72°44'30"E 72°51'0"E 72°57'30"E

Himendhoo 3°54'0"N 3°54'0"N

Hangnaameedhoo

Omadhoo

Legend Kun'burudhoo ^ Administrative Area MAHIBADHOO

3°45'0"N ^ Atoll Capital Island 3°45'0"N o

International Airport

! Automatic Weather Station (AWS) Island Shoreline Mandhoo Reef Boundary Water Body

!Ad.Rangali

Dhangethi 3°36'0"N 3°36'0"N

Dhigurah

Fenfushi o Dhihdhoo Maamigili ¯ 3°27'0"N 3°27'0"N Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry). 0 2.75 5.5 11 Other data from Maldives agencies: CAA (airports); Kilometers ME (administrative areas, island shorelines, reef boundaries, and water bodies); MLSA (atoll capital islands); and MMS (AWS). WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N

72°38'0"E 72°44'30"E 72°51'0"E 72°57'30"E 8 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Gaafu Alifu: Meteorological Observation Stations Map II.5: Gaafu Alifu Atoll, Meteorological Observation Stations

73°3'0"E 73°13'30"E 73°24'0"E 73°34'30"E 1°7'30"N 1°7'30"N Legend

Administrative Area

^ Atoll Capital Island o

Domestic Airport

! Automatic Weather Station (AWS)

Island Shoreline Reef Boundary Water Body

Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry). Other data from Maldives agencies: CAA (airports); ¯ ME (administrative areas, island shorelines, reef boundaries, and water bodies); MLSA (atoll capital islands); and MMS (AWS). 0 4 8 16 0°54'0"N Kilometers 0°54'0"N WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N

Kolamaafushi

Falhuverrahaa

!^Ga.Villigili VILIN'GILI o

Maamendhoo 0°40'30"N 0°40'30"N

Nilandhoo Dhaandhoo

Dhevvadhoo

THINADHOO o Kon'dey

Dhiyadhoo Madaveli

0°27'0"N Gemanafushi Hoan'dehdhoo 0°27'0"N

Kan'duhulhudhoo

73°3'0"E 73°13'30"E 73°24'0"E 73°34'30"E

! ! Automatic Weather Stations and Meteorological Observation Stations 9

Gaafu Dhaalu Atoll: Meteorological Observation Stations Map II.6: Gaafu Dhaalu Atoll, Meteorological Observation Stations

73°1'0"E 73°9'30"E 73°18'0"E 73°26'30"E

Dhevvadhoo

^ THINADHOO

!o Kaadedhdhoo 0°28'30"N Madaveli 0°28'30"N

Hoan'dehdhoo

Gn.Foammulah! Gahdhoo

0°18'0"N ! 0°18'0"N Nadellaa Rodhavarrehaa Gd.Gaddhoo

Rathafandhoo Vaadhoo Fiyoari

Faresmaathodaa

Legend

Administrative Area

0°7'30"N Atoll Capital Island 0°7'30"N o

Domestic Airport

! Automatic Weather Station (AWS)

! Meteorological Observation Station

Island Shoreline Reef Boundary Water Body

¯ Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry). Other data from Maldives agencies: CAA (airports); 0 2.25 4.5 9 ME (administrative areas, island shorelines, reef boundaries, 0°3'0"S Kilometers and water bodies); MLSA (atoll capital islands); and MMS (AWS 0°3'0"S and meteorological observation stations). WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N

73°1'0"E 73°9'30"E 73°18'0"E 73°26'30"E 10 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Haa Alifu Atoll: Meteorological Observation Stations Map II.7: Haa Alifu Atoll, Meteorological Observation Stations

72°49'0"E 72°56'0"E 73°3'0"E 73°10'0"E

Legend

Administrative Area ^ Atoll Capital Island ! Automatic Weather Station (AWS) Island Shoreline Reef Boundary Water Body 7°13'20"N 7°13'20"N

Thuraakunu 0 3 6 12 Ha.Uligam Kilometers ! Uligamu WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N 7°5'0"N 7°5'0"N

Data Sources: BODC, IHO and IOC.2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry). Other data from Maldives agencies: ME (administrative areas, island shorelines, water bodies, and reef boundaries); MLSA (atoll capital islands); and MMS (AWS). Mulhadhoo

Huvarafushi

Ihavandhoo Kelaa 6°56'40"N 6°56'40"N

Vashafaru ^DHIHDHOO Filladhoo

Maarandhoo Thakandhoo

Muraidhoo Utheemu

Baarah 6°48'20"N 6°48'20"N

Faridhoo

Hanimaadhoo Naivaadhoo Finey

Hirimaradhoo

72°49'0"E 72°56'0"E 73°3'0"E 73°10'0"E Automatic Weather Stations and Meteorological Observation Stations 11

Haa Dhaalu Atoll: Meteorological Observation Stations Map II.8: Haa Dhaalu Atoll, Meteorological Observation Stations

72°40'0"E 72°50'0"E 73°0'0"E 73°10'0"E Ihavandhoo

Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry). Other data from Maldives agencies: CAA (airports); ME (administrative areas, island shorelines, reef boundaries, and water bodies); MED (ports); MLSA (atoll capital islands); Vashafaru and MMS (meteorological observation stations). ^ DHIHDHOO

Maarandhoo Thakandhoo 6°51'0"N 6°51'0"N Utheemu Muraidhoo Baarah

Faridhoo Hanimaadhoo o Legend Naivaadhoo Finey Hanimaadhoo! Administrative Area Hirimaradhoo

Nellaidhoo

^ Atoll Capital Island o

Domestic Airport Nolhivaranfaru o Nolhivaramu International Airport Kurin'bee

Kun'burudhoo Port o í KULHUDHUFFUSHI 6°38'0"N

^ 6°38'0"N ! Meteorological Observation Station í Island Shoreline Reef Boundary Kumundhoo Water Body Vaikaradhoo

Neykurendhoo Maavaidhoo

Noomaraa Kan'ditheemu Goidhoo Makunudhoo 6°25'0"N 6°25'0"N

Feydhoo

Bileiyfahi Foakaidhoo

Maroshi 6°12'0"N ¯ 6°12'0"N

0 4.75 9.5 19 Kilometers

WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N

72°40'0"E 72°50'0"E 73°0'0"EKomandoo 73°10'0"E 12 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Laamu Atoll: Meteorological Observation Stations Map II.9: Laamu Atoll, Meteorological Observation Stations

73°16'30"E 73°22'0"E 73°27'30"E 73°33'0"E

Isdhoo L. Isdhoo ! 2°6'0"N 2°6'0"N Dhan'bidhoo

Maabaidhoo

Mundoo 1°57'0"N 1°57'0"N

Gan

Maavah Maandhoo

Kadhdhoo!o

^ FONADHOO Gaadhoo Maamendhoo 1°48'0"N Hithadhoo 1°48'0"N Kunahandhoo

Legend

Administrative Area

^ Atoll Capital Island o

Domestic Airport ¯ ! Automatic Weather Station (AWS) Data Sources: ! Meteorological Observation Station BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry). Island Shoreline Other data from Maldives agencies: CAA (airports); 0 2.75 5.5 11 ME (administrative areas, island shorelines, reef boundaries, Kilometers Reef Boundary and water bodies); MLSA (atoll capital islands); and MMS (AWS and meteorological observation stations). WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N Water Body 1°39'0"N 1°39'0"N

73°16'30"E 73°22'0"E 73°27'30"E 73°33'0"E Automatic Weather Stations and Meteorological Observation Stations 13

North Malé Atoll: Meteorological Observation Map II.10: North Malé Atoll, Meteorological Observation Stations Stations !

73°21'0"E 73°30'0"E 73°39'0"E 73°48'0"E

K.Kaashidhoo! 4°52'30"N 4°52'30"N

Gaafaru Legend

Administrative Area ^ Atoll Capital Island

^ City 4°41'0"N o 4°41'0"N International Airport

í Port ! Automatic Weather Station (AWS)

! Meteorological Observation Station

Island Shoreline Reef Boundary Water Body 4°29'30"N 4°29'30"N

Dhihfushi

THULUSDHOO^

Huraa

Ari.Banyantree ! Himmafushi ¯ 4°18'0"N 0 4.25 8.5 17 4°18'0"N Kilometers

WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N

Farukolhufushi

Data Sources: o Hulhumale' HulHule ! BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry). ! Other data from Maldives agencies: CAA (airports); ME Vilin'gili NMC (administrative areas, island shorelines, reef boundaries, í^! and water bodies); MED (ports); MLSA (atoll capital islands K.Male and cities); and MMS (AWS and meteorological observation MALE' stations).

73°21'0"E 73°30'0"E 73°39'0"E 73°48'0"E 14 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Raa Atoll: MeteorologicalMap II.11: Raa Atoll, Observation Meteorological Stations Observation Stations

72°42'0"E 72°49'0"E 72°56'0"E 73°3'0"E

Alifushi 5°53'0"N 5°53'0"N !R.Vaadhoo Vaadhoo

Rasgetheemu ¯ An'golhitheemu Hulhudhuffaaru 0 3.25 6.5 13 Kilometers

WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N o 5°42'0"N 5°42'0"N

^UN'GOOFAARU

Dhuvaafaru

Maakurathu

Rasmaadhoo Legend Innamaadhoo

Administrative Area

^ Atoll Capital Island 5°31'0"N o 5°31'0"N Domestic Airport

! Automatic Weather Station (AWS) Maduvvari In'guraidhoo Island Shoreline Fainu Reef Boundary Meedhoo Water Body Kinolhas

Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry). 5°20'0"N

Other data from Maldives agencies: CAA (airports); 5°20'0"N ME (administrative areas, island shorelines, reef boundaries, and water bodies); MLSA (atoll capital islands); and MMS (AWS). Kudarikilu

72°42'0"E 72°49'0"E 72°56'0"E 73°3'0"E Automatic Weather Stations and Meteorological Observation Stations 15

Thaa Atoll: MeteorologicalMap II.12: Thaa Atoll, Observation Meteorological Stations Observation Stations

72°54'0"E 73°3'0"E 73°12'0"E 73°21'0"E

Burunee

!Th.Vilufushi Vilufushi 2°30'0"N 2°30'0"N

Madifushi

Dhiyamigili Guraidhoo 2°20'0"N Kan'doodhoo 2°20'0"N

Vandhoo

!Th.Hirilandhoo Hirilandhoo

Gaadhihfushi Hiriyanfushio

Thimarafushi Legend ^VEYMANDOO Administrative Area

Kin'bidhoo

^ Atoll Capital Island o Omadhoo 2°10'0"N 2°10'0"N Domestic Airport

! Automatic Weather Station (AWS) Island Shoreline ¯ Reef Boundary Water Body 0 3.5 7 14 Kilometers

WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

72°54'0"E 73°3'0"E 73°12'0"E 73°21'0"E 16 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Vaavu Atoll: MapMeteorological II.13: Vaavu Atoll, Observation Meteorological Stations Observation Stations

73°20'0"E 73°28'0"E 73°36'0"E 73°44'0"E

Legend

Administrative Area ^ Atoll Capital Island V.Fulidhoo ! Automatic Weather Station (AWS) ! Fulidhoo Island Shoreline Reef Boundary 3°40'0"N 3°40'0"N Water Body 3°30'0"N Thinadhoo 3°30'0"N

FELIDHOO^ Keyodhoo 3°20'0"N 3°20'0"N Rakeedhoo ¯

0 3.5 7 14 Kilometers

WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N

Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry). Other data from Maldives agencies: ME (administrative areas, island shorelines, reef boundaries, and water bodies); MLSA (atoll capital islands); and MMS (AWS). 3°10'0"N 3°10'0"N

73°20'0"E 73°28'0"E 73°36'0"E 73°44'0"E Historical Annual Climate 17

Daily rainfall and temperature data for the baseline years of 1970–2005 from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) were averaged and interpolated using thin plate splines for historical annual and seasonal climate mapping.

R ainfall

The resulting annual average rainfall map for 1970–2005 (Map II.14) shows that the least amount of rainfall is received by the atolls in the middle portion of Maldives, from Baa Atoll down to Gnaviyani. These atolls receive an average daily rainfall of 2.1–3.4 millimeters a day (mm/day) and face a greater challenge in sourcing their water supply. On the contrary, rainfall is highest in the northern atolls (Haa Alifu and Haa Dhaalu). These atolls receive an average of 4.6–5.8 mm/day. The rest of the atolls receive an average of 3.4–4.6 mm/day.

Temperature

The annual average temperature map for 1970–2005 (Map II.15) illustrates a slight difference in average annual temperature across Maldives. Higher latitudes have slightly higher average annual temperature (28.0°C–28.4°C) compared with the southern atolls. Southern atolls—from Meemu Atoll and Dhaalu Atoll down to Addu Atoll—have an average annual temperature of 27.7°C–28.0°C.

Sunset view from the Malé fishport. Fishing is the dominant economic activity and largest sector in Maldives, followed by tourism. Trends in these industries can be affected by the country’s tropical climate, hot and humid all year-round, with rainfall influenced by monsoons (photo by Roberta Gerpacio). 18 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Annual Average Rainfall (1970-2005)Map II.14: Maldives, Annual Average Rainfall (1970–2005)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Rainfall (mm/day) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 2.10–3.40 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 3.40–4.60 ATOLL (Lh) 4.60–5.80 5.80–7.00 7.00–8.20 BAA ATOLL NORTH 8.20–9.40 (B) MALÉ ATOLL 9.40–10.60 (K) 10.60–11.80 ALIFU 11.80–13.00 ALIFU ATOLL 13.00–14.20 (AA) SOUTH MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- partner.com (rainfall). WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Historical Annual Climate 19

Maldives: Annual Average Temperature (1970-2005)Map II.15: Maldives, Annual Average Temperature (1970–2005)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.68–28.00 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 28.00–28.40 ATOLL (Lh) 28.40–28.80 28.80–29.20

BAA 29.20–29.60 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 29.60–30.00 ATOLL (K) 30.00–30.40 30.40–30.80 ALIFU ALIFU 30.80–31.20 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 31.20–31.60 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 20 Historical Seasonal Climate

For seasonal climate, the same dataset from GHCN was used. These maps are presented by season: December, January, February (DJF); March, April, May (MAM); June, July, August (JJA); and September, October, November (SON). The maps show rainfall and temperature variation across time and space.

Shoreline in a resort island. Maldives has developed numerous resort islands to serve the growing tourism industry, an important catalyst in the country’s overall economic growth. The industry, however, can also be vulnerable to the impacts of changing climate (photo by Roberta Gerpacio). Seasonal Average Rainfall (1970–2005) 21

The rainfall distribution pattern across Maldives varies across months and latitude. Greater rainfall is experienced in the south during DJF. During MAM, Maldives is generally Wetter north dry. The climate is governed by monsoons. MAM covers the transition of a drier northeast JJA and SON are wettest months monsoon to a wetter southwest monsoon. Rainfall starts to increase in JJA, during which rainfall is greater in the northern atolls and the country experiences rainfall from the southwest monsoon. The southwest monsoon continues to bring rainfall until October. The wettest months are SON—northern and southern atolls experience greater rainfall during these months.

Maldives: Seasonal AverageMaldives: Rainfall Seasonal AverageMapMaldives: II.16: Rainfall SeasonalMaldives, Average Maldives:Seasonal Rainfall Seasonal Average Average Rainfall Rainfall (1970–2005) (DJF 1970-2005) (MAM 1970-2005) (JJA 1970-2005) (SON 1970-2005)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA HAA HAA HAA DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (HDh) (HDh)Legend (HDh) (HDh)Legend Legend SHAVIYANI SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI SHAVIYANI ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL Administrative AATOLLrea Administrative Area Administrative Area (Sh) (Sh) Administrative Area(Sh) (Sh) Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll NOONU NOONU NOONU NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N ATOLL ATOLL 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL Rainfall (mm/day) 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) Rainfall (mm/day) (N) (N) (N) (N) RAA RAA 1.30–4.00 RAA 1.30–4.00 RAA 1.30–4.00 1.30–4.00 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL 4.00–8.00 4.00–8.00 4.00–8.00 (R) LHAVIYANI (R) LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI (R) LHAVIYANI ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL 8.00–12.00 ATOLL 8.00–12.00 8.00–12.00 (Lh) (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) (Lh) 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 BAA BAA BAA BAA NORTH NORTH NORTH ATOLL ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 ATOLL 20.00–24.00 20.00–24.00 (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 (K) (K) (K) (K) 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU 32.00–36.00 32.00–36.00 32.00–36.00 32.00–36.00 ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ATOLL ATOLL 36.00–44.00 ATOLL 36.00–44.00 ATOLL 36.00–44.00 36.00–44.00 (AA) (AA) (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH SOUTH SOUTH MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) (K) 4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N Legend ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL Administrative Area VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (V) (V) (V) (V) FAAFU FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N I N D I A NA dministrativeO C E A N Atoll ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (F) (F) (F) (F) MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) (M) (M) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL Rainfall (mm/day) (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) 1.30–4.00 20.00–24.00

THAA THAA THAA THAA ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL 4.00–8.00 24.00–28.00 (Th) (Th) (Th) (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 8.00–12.00 28.00–32.00 LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (L) (L) (L) (L) 12.00–16.00 32.00–36.00 A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a 16.00–20.00 36.00–44.00

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry); GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) ME (administrative areas and atoll); 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ ¯ ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: Dataand Sources: SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); 025 50 100 150 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 www.sander-partner.com (rainfall). 025 50 100 150 and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- Kilometers Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- Kilometers partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N partner.comADDU ATOLL WGS(rainfall). (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 70°6'0"E DJF 72°8'0"E MAM 74°10'0"E JJA 76°12'0"E SON 22 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (DJF 1970-2005)Map II.17: Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (DJF 1970–2005)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Rainfall (mm/day) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 1.30–4.00 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 4.00–8.00 ATOLL (Lh) 8.00–12.00 12.00–16.00 16.00–20.00 BAA ATOLL NORTH 20.00–24.00 (B) MALÉ ATOLL 24.00–28.00 (K) 28.00–32.00 ALIFU 32.00–36.00 ALIFU ATOLL 36.00–44.00 (AA) SOUTH MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Historical Seasonal Climate 23

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (MAM 1970-2005)Map II.18: Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (MAM 1970–2005)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 24 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 1970-2005)Map II.19: Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 1970–2005)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Historical Seasonal Climate 25

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (SON 1970-2005)Map II.20: Maldives, Seasonal Average Rainfall (SON 1970–2005)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Seasonal Average Temperature 26 (1970–2005)

Maldives is coldest during DJF and SON. The average temperature, ranging Warmer north 27.40°C–27.95°C, is consistent across the country. The temperature (27.95°C–30.15°C) MAM are the during MAM increases. MAM are the warmest months especially in the northern atolls. warmest months During JJA, the temperature decreases to 27.40°C–27.95 °C in the southern atolls and 27.95°C–28.50 °C in the northern and central atolls.

Maldives: Seasonal AverageMaldives: Temperature SeasonalMap Average II.21:Maldives: Temperature Maldives, Seasonal Average SeasonalMaldives: Temperature AverageSeasonal Average Temperature Temperature (1970–2005) (DJF 1970-2005) (MAM 1970-2005) (JJA 1970-2005) (SON 1970-2005)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA HAA HAA HAA DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (HDh) (HDh) (HDh) (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area(Sh) Administrative Area(Sh) Administrative Area(Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll NOONU NOONU NOONU NOONU

6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N ATOLL 6°0'0"N Temperature (ºC) ATOLL 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N Temperature (ºC) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Temperature (ºC) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) (N) (N) (N) RAA RAA 27.40–27.95 RAA 27.40–27.95 RAA 27.40–27.95 27.40–27.95 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI (R) 27.95–28.50 LHAVIYANI (R) 27.95–28.50 LHAVIYANI (R) 27.95–28.50 LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 (Lh) 28.50–29.05 (Lh) 28.50–29.05 (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60 29.05–29.60 29.05–29.60 29.05–29.60

BAA BAA 29.60–30.15 BAA 29.60–30.15 BAA 29.60–30.15 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH ATOLL NORTH ATOLL NORTH ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ (B) 30.15–30.70 MALÉ (B) 30.15–30.70 MALÉ (B) 30.15–30.70 MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 (K) 30.70–31.25 (K) 30.70–31.25 (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 31.25–31.80 31.25–31.80 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ALIFU 31.80–32.35 31.80–32.35 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (AA) SOUTH (AA) 32.35–32.95 SOUTH (AA) 32.35–32.95 SOUTH (AA) 32.35–32.95 SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL

4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N Legend 4°0'0"N ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU Administrative Area (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (V) (V) (V) (V) FAAFU FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL Administrative Atoll (F) (F) (F) (F) MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) Temperature (°C) 27.40–27.95 30.15–30.70 THAA THAA THAA THAA ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Th) (Th) (Th) (Th) 27.95–28.50 30.70–31.25 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 28.50–29.05 2°0'0"N 31.25–31.80 LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (L) (L) (L) (L) 29.05–29.60 31.80–32.35 A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a 29.60–30.15 32.35–32.95 GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry); ME GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" ¯ ¯ ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" (administrative areas and0°0'0" atoll); and GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www. Data Sources: Data Sources: Data Sources: Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 0 25 50 100 150 0 25 50 100 150 (bathymetry);0 25 ME (administrative50 100 areas and 150atolls); (bathymetry);0 25 ME (administrative50 100 areas and 150atolls); (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); (bathymetry);sander-partner.com ME (administrative areas and atolls); (temperature). Kilometers Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N partner.comADDU ATOLLWGS (temperature). (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N partner.comADDU ATOLLWGS (temperature). (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N partner.comADDU ATOLL (temperature). (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E DJF MAM JJA SON Historical Seasonal Climate 27

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (DJF 1970-2005)Map II.22: Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (DJF 1970–2005)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 28 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (MAM 1970-2005)Map II.23: Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (MAM 1970–2005)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Historical Seasonal Climate 29

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (JJA 1970-2005)Map II.24: Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (JJA 1970–2005)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 30 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (SON 1970-2005)Map II.25: Maldives, Seasonal Average Temperature (SON 1970–2005)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 31

Throughout the formation of our planet, the climate has changed and will continue to change. Together with geological processes, climate change continues to shape Maldives. While the historical climate of the country sustained life, future atmospheric conditions may pose several threats to life in these tropical islands.

The same data set from GHCN was downscaled to the regional climate models to have a finer resolution of 50 kilometers. The model followed the RCP based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report (Pachauri and Meyer 2014). Two RCPs (4.5 and 8.5) were selected. RCP 4.5 represents a moderate greenhouse gas emission scenario, while RCP 8.5 represents a high greenhouse gas emission scenario with no mitigation efforts. Results were further downscaled to 900 meters.

The downscaled projected climate shows a warmer and wetter Maldives in the future. The succeeding maps will illustrate the projected rainfall and temperature per decade to give a clearer picture of the changing climate.

Lone tree. A leafless tree standing in a rocky shore in Maldives. Future changes in climate will have a tremendous impact on the life cycle of trees and other forms of living organisms (photo by Ahmed Shareef). Average Annual Rainfall 32 Projection (RCP 4.5)

According to the projected rainfall based on RCP 4.5 (moderate greenhouse gas emissions), Wetter north Haa Alifu and Shaviyani atolls as well as Baa and Lhaviyani atolls will experience an increase Northern atolls will in average annual rainfall rate in the coming decades. The maps show a slight decrease in be wetter in 2030s and 2040s. the area with the 1.3-4 mm/day rainfall rate, indicating a general increase in rainfall rate through the decades. A southward trend in increased rainfall can also be observed in the projected average annual rainfall across the decades.

Maldives: Annual AverageMaldives: Rainfall AnnualMap Average II.26:Maldives: Rainfall Maldives, Annual Average AnnualMaldives: Rainfall Average Annual Average Rainfall Rainfall Projection (RCP 4.5) (2011-2020, RCP 4.5) (2021-2030, RCP 4.5) (2031-2040, RCP 4.5) (2041-2050, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) 6°0'0"N (N) (N) (N) (N) RAA RAA 2.10–3.40 RAA 2.10–3.40 RAA 2.10–3.40 2.10–3.40 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI (R) 3.40–4.60 LHAVIYANI (R) 3.40–4.60 LHAVIYANI (R) 3.40–4.60 LHAVIYANI 3.40–4.60 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Lh) 4.60–5.80 (Lh) 4.60–5.80 (Lh) 4.60–5.80 (Lh) 4.60–5.80 5.80–7.00 5.80–7.00 5.80–7.00 5.80–7.00 7.00–8.20 7.00–8.20 7.00–8.20 7.00–8.20 BAA BAA BAA BAA ATOLL NORTH ATOLL 8.20–9.40 NORTH ATOLL 8.20–9.40 NORTH ATOLL 8.20–9.40 NORTH 8.20–9.40 (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ ATOLL 9.40–10.60 ATOLL 9.40–10.60 ATOLL 9.40–10.60 ATOLL 9.40–10.60 (K) (K) (K) (K) 10.60–11.80 10.60–11.80 10.60–11.80 10.60–11.80 ALIFU ALIFU 11.80–13.00 ALIFU 11.80–13.00 ALIFU 11.80–13.00 11.80–13.00 ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ATOLL ATOLL 13.00–14.20 ATOLL 13.00–14.20 ATOLL 13.00–14.20 13.00–14.20 (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL

4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N Legend 4°0'0"N ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU Administrative Area (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (V) (V) (V) (V) FAAFU FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL Administrative Atoll (F) (F) (F) (F) MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) Rainfall (mm/day) 1.30–4.00 20.00–24.00 THAA THAA THAA THAA ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Th) (Th) (Th) (Th) 4.00–8.00 24.00–28.00 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 8.00–12.00 28.00–32.002°0'0"N LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (L) (L) (L) (L) 12.00–16.00 32.00–36.00 A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a 16.00–20.00 36.00–44.00 GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry); GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) ME (administrative areas and atoll); 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: Data Sources: Data Sources: Dataand Sources: SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); (bathymetry);www.sander-partner.com ME (administrative areas and atolls); (rainfall). Kilometers Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 Future Climate 33

Maldives: Annual Average Rainfall (2011-2020,Map RCPII.27: Maldives, 4.5) Annual Average Rainfall (2011–2020, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 34 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Annual Average Rainfall (2021-2030,Map II.28:RCP Maldives, 4.5) Annual Average Rainfall (2021–2030, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 35

Maldives: Annual Average Rainfall (2031-2040,Map II.29:RCP Maldives, 4.5) Annual Average Rainfall (2031–2040, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 36 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Annual Average Rainfall (2041-2050,Map II.30:RCP Maldives, 4.5) Annual Average Rainfall (2041–2050, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Average Seasonal Rainfall Projection (DJF, RCP 4.5) 37

The northeast monsoon prevails during DJF, keeping rainfall in the northern and middle portion of Maldives low (1.3–4 mm/day). These months bring rainfall (4–8 mm/day) to Wetter south the southern atolls. The southern atolls will experience wetter 2030s and 2040s. Southern atolls will be wetter beginning in the 2030s

Maldives: Seasonal AverageMaldives: Rainfall SeasonalMap II.31: AverageMaldives: Maldives, Rainfall Seasonal Average AverageMaldives: SeasonalRainfall Seasonal Rainfall Average ProjectionRainfall (DJF, RCP 4.5) (DJF 2011-2020, RCP 4.5)(DJF 2021-2030, RCP 4.5)(DJF 2031-2040, RCP 4.5)(DJF 2041-2050, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA HAA HAA HAA DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (HDh) (HDh) (HDh) (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll NOONU NOONU NOONU NOONU

6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) 6°0'0"N (N) (N) (N) (N) RAA RAA 1.30–4.00 RAA 1.30–4.00 RAA 1.30–4.00 1.30–4.00 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI 4.00–8.00 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 BAA BAA BAA BAA ATOLL NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH 20.00–24.00 (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 (K) (K) (K) (K) 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 ALIFU ALIFU 32.00–36.00 ALIFU 32.00–36.00 ALIFU 32.00–36.00 32.00–36.00 ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ATOLL ATOLL 36.00–44.00 ATOLL 36.00–44.00 ATOLL 36.00–44.00 36.00–44.00 (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL

4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N Legend 4°0'0"N ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU Administrative Area (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (V) (V) (V) (V) FAAFU FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL Administrative Atoll (F) (F) (F) (F) MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) Rainfall (mm/day) 1.30–4.00 20.00–24.00 THAA THAA THAA THAA ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Th) (Th) (Th) (Th) 4.00–8.00 24.00–28.00 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 8.00–12.00 28.00–32.002°0'0"N LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (L) (L) (L) (L) 12.00–16.00 32.00–36.00 A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a 16.00–20.00 36.00–44.00 GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry); GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) ME (administrative areas and atoll); 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: Data Sources: Data Sources: Dataand Sources: SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); (bathymetry);www.sander-partner.com ME (administrative areas and atolls); (rainfall). Kilometers Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S)

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (DJF 2011-2020,Map II.32: Maldives, RCP Seasonal4.5) Average Rainfall (DJF 2011–2020, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 39

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (DJF 2021-2030,Map II.33: Maldives, RCP Seasonal4.5) Average Rainfall (DJF 2021–2030, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 40 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (DJF 2031-2040,Map II.34: Maldives, RCP Seasonal4.5) Average Rainfall (DJF 2031–2040, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 41

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (DJF 2041-2050,Map II.35: Maldives, RCP Seasonal4.5) Average Rainfall (DJF 2041–2050, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Average Seasonal Rainfall 42 Projection (MAM, RCP 4.5)

Maldives experiences the driest days during MAM, as the northeast monsoon is Generally dry strongest these months. Rainfall, at a rate of 1.3–4 mm/day, is distributed evenly Driest season throughout the atolls during MAM and throughout the projected time periods No significant change (with the exception of Haa Alifu Atoll in the 2030s). across the decades

Maldives: Seasonal AverageMaldives: Rainfall SeasonalMap II.36: AverageMaldives: Maldives, Rainfall Seasonal Average AverageMaldives: Seasonal Rainfall Seasonal Rainfall Average Projection Rainfall (MAM, RCP 4.5) (MAM 2011-2020, RCP 4.5)(MAM 2021-2030, RCP 4.5)(MAM 2031-2040, RCP 4.5)(MAM 2041-2050, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA HAA HAA HAA DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (HDh) (HDh) (HDh) (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll NOONU NOONU NOONU NOONU

6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) 6°0'0"N (N) (N) (N) (N) RAA RAA 1.30–4.00 RAA 1.30–4.00 RAA 1.30–4.00 1.30–4.00 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI 4.00–8.00 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 BAA BAA BAA BAA ATOLL NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH 20.00–24.00 (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 (K) (K) (K) (K) 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 ALIFU ALIFU 32.00–36.00 ALIFU 32.00–36.00 ALIFU 32.00–36.00 32.00–36.00 ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ATOLL ATOLL 36.00–44.00 ATOLL 36.00–44.00 ATOLL 36.00–44.00 36.00–44.00 (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL

4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N Legend 4°0'0"N ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU Administrative Area (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (V) (V) (V) (V) FAAFU FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL Administrative Atoll (F) (F) (F) (F) MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) Rainfall (mm/day) 1.30–4.00 20.00–24.00 THAA THAA THAA THAA ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Th) (Th) (Th) (Th) 4.00–8.00 24.00–28.00 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 8.00–12.00 28.00–32.002°0'0"N LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (L) (L) (L) (L) 12.00–16.00 32.00–36.00 A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a 16.00–20.00 36.00–44.00 GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry); GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) ME (administrative areas and atoll); 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: Data Sources: Data Sources: Dataand Sources: SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); (bathymetry);www.sander-partner.com ME (administrative areas and atolls); (rainfall). Kilometers Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S)

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (MAMMap 2011-2020, II.37: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Rainfall (MAM 2011–2020, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 44 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (MAMMap 2021-2030, II.38: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Rainfall (MAM 2021–2030, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 45

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (MAMMap 2031-2040, II.39: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Rainfall (MAM 2031–2040, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 46 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (MAMMap 2041-2050, II.40: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Rainfall (MAM 2041–2050, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Average Seasonal Rainfall Projection (JJA, RCP 4.5) 47

Maldives experiences the highest rainfall rate during JJA compared with other seasons. In these months, rainfall is observed to increase, especially in the northern atolls as the Wetter north southwest monsoon intensifies. Rainfall rate greater than 4 mm/day is expected to move Wet season southward in the 2030s, reaching the atolls in the middle portion of Maldives. Wetter middle atolls in the 2030s and 2040s

Maldives: Seasonal AverageMaldives: Rainfall SeasonalMap II.41: AverageMaldives: Maldives, Rainfall Seasonal Average AverageMaldives: SeasonalRainfall Seasonal Rainfall Average ProjectionRainfall (JJA, RCP 4.5) (JJA 2011-2020, RCP 4.5)(JJA 2021-2030, RCP 4.5)(JJA 2031-2040, RCP 4.5)(JJA 2041-2050, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA HAA HAA HAA DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (HDh) (HDh) (HDh) (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll NOONU NOONU NOONU NOONU

6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) 6°0'0"N (N) (N) (N) (N) RAA RAA 1.30–4.00 RAA 1.30–4.00 RAA 1.30–4.00 1.30–4.00 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI 4.00–8.00 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 BAA BAA BAA BAA ATOLL NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH 20.00–24.00 (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 (K) (K) (K) (K) 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 ALIFU ALIFU 32.00–36.00 ALIFU 32.00–36.00 ALIFU 32.00–36.00 32.00–36.00 ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ATOLL ATOLL 36.00–44.00 ATOLL 36.00–44.00 ATOLL 36.00–44.00 36.00–44.00 (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL

4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N Legend 4°0'0"N ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU Administrative Area (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (V) (V) (V) (V) FAAFU FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL Administrative Atoll (F) (F) (F) (F) MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) Rainfall (mm/day) 1.30–4.00 20.00–24.00 THAA THAA THAA THAA ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Th) (Th) (Th) (Th) 4.00–8.00 24.00–28.00 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 8.00–12.00 2°0'0"N 28.00–32.00 LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (L) (L) (L) (L) 12.00–16.00 32.00–36.00 A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a 16.00–20.00 36.00–44.00 GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry); GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) ME (administrative areas and atoll); 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: Data Sources: Data Sources: Dataand Sources: SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); (bathymetry);www.sander-partner.com ME (administrative areas and atolls); (rainfall). Kilometers Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S)

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2011-2020,Map II.42: Maldives, RCP 4.5) Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2011–2020, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 49

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2021-2030,Map II.43: Maldives, RCP 4.5)Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2021–2030, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 50 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2031-2040,Map II.44: Maldives, RCP 4.5)Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2031–2040, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 51

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2041-2050,Map II.45: Maldives, RCP Seasonal4.5) Average Rainfall (JJA 2041–2050, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Average Seasonal Rainfall 52 Projection (SON, RCP 4.5)

During SON, the southwest monsoon starts to weaken, bringing the rainfall rate down Wetter north to less than 8 mm/day. The maps presenting the time series of seasonal rainfall for SON Wet season consistently show that across the projected time periods, the southern half of Maldives No significant shift in receives minimal (1.3–4 mm/day) rainfall while the northern half of Maldives experiences rainfall distribution across decades a higher rainfall rate (4–8 mm/day).

Maldives: Seasonal AverageMaldives: Rainfall SeasonalMap II.46: AverageMaldives: Maldives, Rainfall Seasonal Average AverageMaldives: Seasonal Rainfall Seasonal Rainfall Average Projection Rainfall (SON, RCP 4.5) (SON 2011-2020, RCP 4.5)(SON 2021-2030, RCP 4.5)(SON 2031-2040, RCP 4.5)(SON 2041-2050, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA HAA HAA HAA DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (HDh) (HDh) (HDh) (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll NOONU NOONU NOONU NOONU

6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) 6°0'0"N (N) (N) (N) (N) RAA RAA 1.30–4.00 RAA 1.30–4.00 RAA 1.30–4.00 1.30–4.00 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI 4.00–8.00 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 BAA BAA BAA BAA ATOLL NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH 20.00–24.00 (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 (K) (K) (K) (K) 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 ALIFU ALIFU 32.00–36.00 ALIFU 32.00–36.00 ALIFU 32.00–36.00 32.00–36.00 ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ATOLL ATOLL 36.00–44.00 ATOLL 36.00–44.00 ATOLL 36.00–44.00 36.00–44.00 (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL

4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N Legend 4°0'0"N ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU Administrative Area (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (V) (V) (V) (V) FAAFU FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL Administrative Atoll (F) (F) (F) (F) MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) Rainfall (mm/day) 1.30–4.00 20.00–24.00 THAA THAA THAA THAA ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Th) (Th) (Th) (Th) 4.00–8.00 24.00–28.00 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 8.00–12.00 28.00–32.002°0'0"N LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (L) (L) (L) (L) 12.00–16.00 32.00–36.00 A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a 16.00–20.00 36.00–44.00 GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry); GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) ME (administrative areas and atoll); 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: Data Sources: Data Sources: Dataand Sources: SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); (bathymetry);www.sander-partner.com ME (administrative areas and atolls); (rainfall). Kilometers Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S)

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (SON Map2011-2020, II.47: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Rainfall (SON 2011–2020, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 54 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (SON Map2021-2030, II.48: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Rainfall (SON 2021–2030, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 55

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (SON Map2031-2040, II.49: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Rainfall (SON 2031–2040, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 56 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (SON Map2041-2050, II.50: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Rainfall (SON 2041–2050, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Average Annual Rainfall Projection (RCP 8.5) 57

RCP 8.5 depicts a scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions are higher. As a result, the change in rainfall would also be greater compared with RCP 4.5. However, when Wetter north comparing the RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 maps, there is minimal visible difference in the average North will be wetter in the future rainfall. In this time series of annual rainfall projection for RCP 8.5, an increasing rainfall rate No significant trend from 2011 to 2050 is visible. Higher rainfall rate (4–16 mm/day) will be experienced difference with by atolls in northern Maldives. However, as the years progress, more atolls in the north will RCP 4.5 experience wetter days.

Maldives: Annual AverageMaldives: Rainfall AnnualMap Average II.51:Maldives: Rainfall Maldives, Annual Average AverageMaldives: Rainfall Annual Annual Average Rainfall Rainfall Projection (RCP 8.5) (2011-2020, RCP 8.5) (2021-2030, RCP 8.5) (2031-2040, RCP 8.5) (2041-2050, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N Legend 4°0'0"N ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU Administrative Area (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (V) (V) (V) (V) FAAFU FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL Administrative Atoll (F) (F) (F) (F) MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) Rainfall (mm/day) 1.30–4.00 20.00–24.00 THAA THAA THAA THAA ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Th) (Th) (Th) (Th) 4.00–8.00 24.00–28.00 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 8.00–12.00 28.00–32.002°0'0"N LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (L) (L) (L) (L) A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a 12.00–16.00 32.00–36.00 16.00–20.00 36.00–44.00 GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry); GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) ME (administrative areas and atoll); 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: Data Sources: Data Sources: Dataand Sources: SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); (bathymetry);www.sander-partner.com ME (administrative areas and atolls); (rainfall). Kilometers Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S)

Maldives: Annual Average Rainfall (2011-2020,Map RCPII.52: Maldives, 8.5) Annual Average Rainfall (2011–2020, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 59

Maldives: Annual Average Rainfall (2021-2030,Map II.53:RCP Maldives, 8.5) Annual Average Rainfall (2021–2030, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 60 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Annual Average Rainfall (2031-2040,Map II.54:RCP Maldives, 8.5) Annual Average Rainfall (2031–2040, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 61

Maldives: Annual Average Rainfall (2041-2050,Map II.55:RCP Maldives, 8.5) Annual Average Rainfall (2041–2050, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Average Seasonal Rainfall 62 Projection (DJF, RCP 8.5)

RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 projections of average seasonal rainfall show the same picture with Wetter south a slight difference. The south of Maldives will remain wetter compared to the north. More More atolls in the atolls in the south will experience a higher rainfall rate (4–8 mm/day). However, there south will experience higher rainfall rate is a slight increase in the area covered by the 4–8 mm/day rainfall rate for RCP 8.5 as 4–8 mm/day rainfall compared to the RCP 4.5 projection. rate has greater coverage than RCP 4.5 projection

Maldives: Seasonal AverageMaldives: Rainfall SeasonalMap II.56: AverageMaldives: Maldives, Rainfall Seasonal Average AverageMaldives: SeasonalRainfall Seasonal Rainfall Average ProjectionRainfall (DJF, RCP 8.5) (DJF 2011-2020, RCP 8.5)(DJF 2021-2030, RCP 8.5)(DJF 2031-2040, RCP 8.5)(DJF 2041-2050, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA HAA HAA HAA DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (HDh) (HDh) (HDh) (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll NOONU NOONU NOONU NOONU

6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) 6°0'0"N (N) (N) (N) (N) RAA RAA 1.30–4.00 RAA 1.30–4.00 RAA 1.30–4.00 1.30–4.00 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI 4.00–8.00 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 BAA BAA BAA BAA ATOLL NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH 20.00–24.00 (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 (K) (K) (K) (K) 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 ALIFU ALIFU 32.00–36.00 ALIFU 32.00–36.00 ALIFU 32.00–36.00 32.00–36.00 ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ATOLL ATOLL 36.00–44.00 ATOLL 36.00–44.00 ATOLL 36.00–44.00 36.00–44.00 (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL

4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N Legend 4°0'0"N ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU Administrative Area (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (V) (V) (V) (V) FAAFU FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL Administrative Atoll (F) (F) (F) (F) MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) Rainfall (mm/day) 1.30–4.00 20.00–24.00 THAA THAA THAA THAA ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Th) (Th) (Th) (Th) 4.00–8.00 24.00–28.00 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 8.00–12.00 28.00–32.002°0'0"N LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (L) (L) (L) (L) 12.00–16.00 32.00–36.00 A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a 16.00–20.00 36.00–44.00 GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry); GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) ME (administrative areas and atoll); 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: Data Sources: Data Sources: Dataand Sources: SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); (bathymetry);www.sander-partner.com ME (administrative areas and atolls); (rainfall). Kilometers Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S)

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (DJF 2011-2020,Map II.57: Maldives, RCP Seasonal8.5) Average Rainfall (DJF 2011–2020, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 64 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (DJF 2021-2030,Map II.58: Maldives, RCP Seasonal8.5) Average Rainfall (DJF 2021–2030, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 65

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (DJF 2031-2040,Map II.59: Maldives, RCP Seasonal8.5) Average Rainfall (DJF 2031–2040, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 66 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (DJF 2041-2050,Map II.60: Maldives, RCP Seasonal8.5) Average Rainfall (DJF 2041–2050, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Average Seasonal Rainfall Projection (MAM, RCP 8.5) 67

The MAM average seasonal rainfall projection for RCP 8.5 is similar to that of RCP 4.5. The rainfall rate for the whole Maldivian archipelago is still at its lowest range during Low rainfall rate is evenly distributed across Maldives MAM. The low rainfall rate is sustained throughout all four time periods. No visible change in rainfall across time periods No visible difference between RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 projections

Maldives: Seasonal AverageMaldives: Rainfall SeasonalMap II.61: AverageMaldives: Maldives, Rainfall Seasonal Average AverageMaldives: Seasonal Rainfall Seasonal Rainfall Average Projection Rainfall (MAM, RCP 8.5) (MAM 2011-2020, RCP 8.5)(MAM 2021-2030, RCP 8.5)(MAM 2031-2040, RCP 8.5)(MAM 2041-2050, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA HAA HAA HAA DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (HDh) (HDh) (HDh) (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll NOONU NOONU NOONU NOONU

6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) 6°0'0"N (N) (N) (N) (N) RAA RAA 1.30–4.00 RAA 1.30–4.00 RAA 1.30–4.00 1.30–4.00 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI 4.00–8.00 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 BAA BAA BAA BAA ATOLL NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH 20.00–24.00 (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 (K) (K) (K) (K) 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 ALIFU ALIFU 32.00–36.00 ALIFU 32.00–36.00 ALIFU 32.00–36.00 32.00–36.00 ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ATOLL ATOLL 36.00–44.00 ATOLL 36.00–44.00 ATOLL 36.00–44.00 36.00–44.00 (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL

4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N Legend 4°0'0"N ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU Administrative Area (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (V) (V) (V) (V) FAAFU FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL Administrative Atoll (F) (F) (F) (F) MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) Rainfall (mm/day) 1.30–4.00 20.00–24.00 THAA THAA THAA THAA ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Th) (Th) (Th) (Th) 4.00–8.00 24.00–28.00 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 8.00–12.00 28.00–32.002°0'0"N LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (L) (L) (L) (L) 12.00–16.00 32.00–36.00 A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a 16.00–20.00 36.00–44.00 GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry); GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) ME (administrative areas and atoll); 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: Data Sources: Data Sources: Dataand Sources: SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); (bathymetry);www.sander-partner.com ME (administrative areas and atolls); (rainfall). Kilometers Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S)

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (MAMMap 2011-2020, II.62: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Rainfall (MAM 2011–2020, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 69

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (MAMMap 2021-2030, II.63: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Rainfall (MAM 2021–2030, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 70 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (MAMMap 2031-2040, II.64: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Rainfall (MAM 2031–2040, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 71

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (MAMMap 2041-2050, II.65: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Rainfall (MAM 2041–2050, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Average Seasonal Rainfall 72 Projection (JJA, RCP 8.5)

JJA will continue to be the wettest months of the year, especially in the northern atolls of Wetter north Maldives. Haa Alifu Atoll and Haa Dhaalu Atoll will experience the highest average daily Wettest season rainfall rate (up to 12 mm/day). From the 2030s to the 2040s, Shaviyani Atoll will also Wetter north in the experience this average daily rainfall rate. future No visible difference between RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 projections

Maldives: Seasonal AverageMaldives: Rainfall SeasonalMap II.66: AverageMaldives: Maldives, Rainfall Seasonal Average AverageMaldives: SeasonalRainfall Seasonal Rainfall Average ProjectionRainfall (JJA, RCP 8.5) (JJA 2011-2020, RCP 8.5)(JJA 2021-2030, RCP 8.5)(JJA 2031-2040, RCP 8.5)(JJA 2041-2050, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA HAA HAA HAA DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (HDh) (HDh) (HDh) (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll NOONU NOONU NOONU NOONU

6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) 6°0'0"N (N) (N) (N) (N) RAA RAA 1.30–4.00 RAA 1.30–4.00 RAA 1.30–4.00 1.30–4.00 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI 4.00–8.00 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 BAA BAA BAA BAA ATOLL NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH 20.00–24.00 (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 (K) (K) (K) (K) 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 ALIFU ALIFU 32.00–36.00 ALIFU 32.00–36.00 ALIFU 32.00–36.00 32.00–36.00 ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ATOLL ATOLL 36.00–44.00 ATOLL 36.00–44.00 ATOLL 36.00–44.00 36.00–44.00 (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL

4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N Legend 4°0'0"N ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU Administrative Area (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (V) (V) (V) (V) FAAFU FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL Administrative Atoll (F) (F) (F) (F) MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) Rainfall (mm/day) 1.30–4.00 20.00–24.00 THAA THAA THAA THAA ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Th) (Th) (Th) (Th) 4.00–8.00 24.00–28.00 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 8.00–12.00 28.00–32.002°0'0"N LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (L) (L) (L) (L) 12.00–16.00 32.00–36.00 A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a 16.00–20.00 36.00–44.00 GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry); GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) ME (administrative areas and atoll); 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: Data Sources: Data Sources: Dataand Sources: SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); (bathymetry);www.sander-partner.com ME (administrative areas and atolls); (rainfall). Kilometers Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S)

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2011-2020,Map II.67: Maldives, RCP 8.5) Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2011–2020, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 74 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2021-2030,Map II.68: Maldives, RCP 8.5)Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2021–2030, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 75

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2031-2040,Map II.69: Maldives, RCP 8.5)Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2031–2040, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 76 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2041-2050,Map II.70: Maldives, RCP 8.5)Seasonal Average Rainfall (JJA 2041–2050, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Average Seasonal Rainfall Projection (SON, RCP 8.5) 77

The time series of projected average rainfall during SON based on RCP 8.5 shows an increasing area covered by a rainfall rate of 4–8 mm/day. This translates to Wetter north increasing rainfall in the middle portion of Maldives in the 2020s. During SON, More northern atolls with higher rainfall rate the northern half of Maldives has a rainfall rate of 4–8 mm/day and the southern (4–8 mm/day) in the future half has a low rainfall rate of 1.3–4 mm/day. Greater area with 4–8 mm/day rainfall rate in the future in RCP 8.5 compared with RCP 4.5

Maldives: Seasonal AverageMaldives: Rainfall Seasonal Map II.71: AverageMaldives: Maldives, Rainfall Seasonal Average AverageMaldives: Seasonal Rainfall Seasonal Rainfall Average Projection Rainfall (SON, RCP 8.5) (SON 2011-2020, RCP 8.5)(SON 2021-2030, RCP 8.5)(SON 2031-2040, RCP 8.5)(SON 2041-2050, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA HAA HAA HAA DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (HDh) (HDh) (HDh) (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area(Sh) A dministrative Area Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll Administrative Atoll NOONU NOONU NOONU NOONU

6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Rainfall (mm/day) 6°0'0"N (N) (N) (N) (N) RAA RAA 1.30–4.00 RAA 1.30–4.00 RAA 1.30–4.00 1.30–4.00 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI (R) 4.00–8.00 LHAVIYANI 4.00–8.00 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 (Lh) 8.00–12.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 12.00–16.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 16.00–20.00 BAA BAA BAA BAA ATOLL NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH ATOLL 20.00–24.00 NORTH 20.00–24.00 (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ (B) MALÉ ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 ATOLL 24.00–28.00 (K) (K) (K) (K) 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 28.00–32.00 ALIFU ALIFU 32.00–36.00 ALIFU 32.00–36.00 ALIFU 32.00–36.00 32.00–36.00 ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ATOLL ATOLL 36.00–44.00 ATOLL 36.00–44.00 ATOLL 36.00–44.00 36.00–44.00 (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH (AA) SOUTH MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL

4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N Legend 4°0'0"N ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU Administrative Area (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (V) (V) (V) (V) FAAFU FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL Administrative Atoll (F) (F) (F) (F) MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) Rainfall (mm/day) 1.30–4.00 20.00–24.00 THAA THAA THAA THAA ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Th) (Th) (Th) (Th) 4.00–8.00 24.00–28.00 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 8.00–12.00 28.00–32.002°0'0"N LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (L) (L) (L) (L) A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a 12.00–16.00 32.00–36.00 16.00–20.00 36.00–44.00 GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry); GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) ME (administrative areas and atoll); 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: Data Sources: Data Sources: Dataand Sources: SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 (bathymetry);025 ME (administrative 50 100 areas and atolls); 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); (bathymetry);www.sander-partner.com ME (administrative areas and atolls); (rainfall). Kilometers Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). partner.com (rainfall). WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S)

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (SON Map2011-2020, II.72: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Rainfall (SON 2011–2020, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 79

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (SON Map2021-2030, II.73: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Rainfall (SON 2021–2030, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 80 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (SON Map2031-2040, II.74: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Rainfall (SON 2031–2040, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 81

Maldives: Seasonal Average Rainfall (SON Map2041-2050, II.75: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Rainfall (SON 2041–2050, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Average Annual Temperature 82 Projection (RCP 4.5)

In this decade, the average annual temperature in Maldives (with the exception Warmer north of Haafu Alifu) is 28.4°C–28.8°C. Maldives will have warmer days (average of Warmer Maldives in 29.05°C–30.15°C) in the 2030s and 2040s, particularly in northern Maldives where the future the average annual temperature will range from 29.60°C to 30.15°C.

Maldives: Annual AverageMaldives: Temperature AnnualMap Average II.76:Maldives: Temperature Maldives, Annual AverageMaldives: Temperature Annual Annual Temperature Average Temperature Projection (RCP 4.5) (2011-2020, RCP 4.5) (2021-2030, RCP 4.5) (2031-2040, RCP 4.5) (2041-2050, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N ATOLL 6°0'0"N Temperature (ºC) ATOLL 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N Temperature (ºC) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Temperature (ºC) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) (N) (N) (N) RAA RAA 27.68–28.00 RAA 27.68–28.00 RAA 27.68–28.00 27.68–28.00 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI (R) 28.00–28.40 LHAVIYANI (R) 28.00–28.40 LHAVIYANI (R) 28.00–28.40 LHAVIYANI 28.00–28.40 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Lh) 28.40–28.80 (Lh) 28.40–28.80 (Lh) 28.40–28.80 (Lh) 28.40–28.80 28.80–29.20 28.80–29.20 28.80–29.20 28.80–29.20

BAA BAA 29.20–29.60 BAA 29.20–29.60 BAA 29.20–29.60 29.20–29.60 ATOLL NORTH ATOLL NORTH ATOLL NORTH ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ (B) 29.60–30.00 MALÉ (B) 29.60–30.00 MALÉ (B) 29.60–30.00 MALÉ 29.60–30.00 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (K) 30.00–30.40 (K) 30.00–30.40 (K) 30.00–30.40 (K) 30.00–30.40 30.40–30.80 30.40–30.80 30.40–30.80 30.40–30.80 ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU 30.80–31.20 ALIFU 30.80–31.20 ALIFU 30.80–31.20 30.80–31.20 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (AA) SOUTH (AA) 31.20–31.60 SOUTH (AA) 31.20–31.60 SOUTH (AA) 31.20–31.60 SOUTH 31.20–31.60 MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ MALÉ ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL

4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N Legend 4°0'0"N ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU Administrative Area (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (V) (V) (V) (V) FAAFU FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL Administrative Atoll (F) (F) (F) (F) MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) Temperature (°C) 27.40–27.95 30.15–30.70 THAA THAA THAA THAA ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Th) (Th) (Th) (Th) 27.95–28.50 30.70–31.25 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 28.50–29.05 2°0'0"N31.25–31.80 LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (L) (L) (L) (L) 29.05–29.60 31.80–32.35 A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a 29.60–30.15 32.35–32.95 GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry); ME GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" ¯ ¯ ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" (administrative areas and 0°0'0" atoll); and GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www. Data Sources: Data Sources: Data Sources: Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 0 25 50 100 150 0 25 50 100 150 (bathymetry);0 25 ME (administrative50 100 areas and 150atolls); (bathymetry);0 25 ME (administrative50 100 areas and 150atolls); (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); (bathymetry);sander-partner.com ME (administrative areas and atolls); (temperature). Kilometers Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N partner.comADDU ATOLLWGS (temperature). (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N partner.comADDU ATOLLWGS (temperature). (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N partner.comADDU ATOLL (temperature). (S) partner.com (temperature).

Maldives: Annual Average Temperature (2011-2020,Map II.77: RCP Maldives, 4.5) Annual Average Temperature (2011–2020, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.68–28.00 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 28.00–28.40 ATOLL (Lh) 28.40–28.80 28.80–29.20

BAA 29.20–29.60 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 29.60–30.00 ATOLL (K) 30.00–30.40 30.40–30.80 ALIFU ALIFU 30.80–31.20 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 31.20–31.60 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 84 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Annual Average Temperature (2021-2030,Map II.78: RCP Maldives, 4.5) Annual Average Temperature (2021–2030, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.68–28.00 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 28.00–28.40 ATOLL (Lh) 28.40–28.80 28.80–29.20

BAA 29.20–29.60 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 29.60–30.00 ATOLL (K) 30.00–30.40 30.40–30.80 ALIFU ALIFU 30.80–31.20 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 31.20–31.60 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 85

Maldives: Annual Average Temperature (2031-2040,Map II.79: RCP Maldives, 4.5) Annual Average Temperature (2031–2040, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.68–28.00 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 28.00–28.40 ATOLL (Lh) 28.40–28.80 28.80–29.20

BAA 29.20–29.60 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 29.60–30.00 ATOLL (K) 30.00–30.40 30.40–30.80 ALIFU ALIFU 30.80–31.20 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 31.20–31.60 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 86 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Annual Average Temperature (2041-2050,Map II.80: RCP Maldives, 4.5) Annual Average Temperature (2041–2050, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.68–28.00 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 28.00–28.40 ATOLL (Lh) 28.40–28.80 28.80–29.20

BAA 29.20–29.60 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 29.60–30.00 ATOLL (K) 30.00–30.40 30.40–30.80 ALIFU ALIFU 30.80–31.20 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 31.20–31.60 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Average Seasonal Temperature Projection (DJF, RCP 4.5) 87

The current average temperature during DJF in Maldives ranges from 27.95°C to 28.50°C, with higher temperature in the northeastern region. In the 2030s and 2040s, Maldives Warmer north will have warmer days during DJF. People living in the north will experience an average Warmer Maldives in the future temperature ranging from 29.05°C to 29.60°C beginning 2031. By 2050, this average temperature during DJF will be experienced across the country.

Maldives: Seasonal AverageMaldives: TemperatureMap Seasonal II.81: Average Maldives,Maldives: Temperature Seasonal Average Average Maldives:Seasonal Temperature Seasonal Temperature Average Temperature Projection (DJF, RCP 4.5) (DJF 2011-2020, RCP 4.5)(DJF 2021-2030, RCP 4.5)(DJF 2031-2040, RCP 4.5)(DJF 2041-2050, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry); ME GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" ¯ ¯ ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" (administrative areas and0°0'0" atoll); and GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www. Data Sources: Data Sources: Data Sources: Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 0 25 50 100 150 0 25 50 100 150 (bathymetry);0 25 ME (administrative50 100 areas and 150atolls); (bathymetry);0 25 ME (administrative50 100 areas and 150atolls); (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); (bathymetry);sander-partner.com ME (administrative areas and atolls); (temperature). Kilometers Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N partner.comADDU ATOLLWGS (temperature). (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N partner.comWGS (temperature). 1984 UTM Zone 43N partner.comADDU ATOLL (temperature). (S) partner.com (temperature).

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (DJFMap 2011-2020, II.82: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Temperature (DJF 2011–2020, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 89

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (DJFMap 2021-2030, II.83: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Temperature (DJF 2021–2030, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 90 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (DJFMap 2031-2040, II.84: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Temperature (DJF 2031–2040, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 91

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (DJFMap 2041-2050, II.85: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Temperature (DJF 2041–2050, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Average Seasonal Temperature 92 Projection (MAM, RCP 4.5)

MAM are the warmest months, especially in northern Maldives. The average temperature Warmer north ranges from 28.50°C to 29.05°C in the 2020s, warming to 29.60°C–30.70°C in the Warmer Maldives in the future 2030s and 2040s. Warmest months are MAM

Maldives: Seasonal AverageMaldives: TemperatureMap Seasonal II.86: Average Maldives,Maldives: Temperature Seasonal Average Average SeasonalMaldives: Temperature Seasonal Temperature Average Temperature Projection (MAM, RCP 4.5) (MAM 2011-2020, RCP 4.5)(MAM 2021-2030, RCP 4.5)(MAM 2031-2040, RCP 4.5)(MAM 2041-2050, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N Legend 4°0'0"N ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU ALIFU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU DHAALU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU VAAVU Administrative Area (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) (ADh) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (V) (V) (V) (V) FAAFU FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N FAAFUI N D I A N O C E A N I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL Administrative Atoll (F) (F) (F) (F) MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU MEEMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) DHAALU (M) ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) (Dh) Temperature (°C) 27.40–27.95 30.15–30.70 THAA THAA THAA THAA ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Th) (Th) (Th) (Th) 27.95–28.50 30.70–31.25 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N 28.50–29.05 2°0'0"N31.25–31.80 LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU LAAMU ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (L) (L) (L) (L) 29.05–29.60 31.80–32.35 A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a A r a b i a n S e a 29.60–30.15 32.35–32.95 GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA) GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry); ME GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" 0°0'0" ¯ ¯ ¯ 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" 0°0'0" (administrative areas and 0°0'0" atoll); and GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www. Data Sources: Data Sources: Data Sources: Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 0 25 50 100 150 0 25 50 100 150 (bathymetry);0 25 ME (administrative50 100 areas and 150atolls); (bathymetry);0 25 ME (administrative50 100 areas and 150atolls); (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); (bathymetry);sander-partner.com ME (administrative areas and atolls); (temperature). Kilometers Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER.Kilometers 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLLWGS (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N partner.comADDU ATOLLWGS (temperature). (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N partner.comADDU ATOLLWGS (temperature). (S)1984 UTM Zone 43N partner.comADDU ATOLL (temperature). (S) partner.com (temperature).

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (MAMMap 2011-2020, II.87: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Temperature (MAM 2011–2020, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 94 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (MAMMap 2021-2030, II.88: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Temperature (MAM 2021–2030, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 95

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (MAMMap 2031-2040, II.89: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Temperature (MAM 2031–2040, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 96 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (MAMMap 2041-2050, II.90: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Temperature (MAM 2041–2050, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Average Seasonal Temperature Projection (JJA, RCP 4.5) 97

The projected average temperature during JJA shows warming in the future, with the temperature rising from 27.95°C–28.50°C to 29.05°C–29.60°C beginning in 2031, Warmer north especially in the northern and middle atolls. Warmer Maldives in the future

Maldives: Seasonal AverageMaldives: TemperatureMap Seasonal II.91: Average Maldives,Maldives: Temperature Seasonal Average Average Maldives:Seasonal Temperature Seasonal Temperature Average Temperature Projection (JJA, RCP 4.5) (JJA 2011-2020, RCP 4.5)(JJA 2021-2030, RCP 4.5)(JJA 2031-2040, RCP 4.5)(JJA 2041-2050, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (JJA Map2011-2020, II.92: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Temperature (JJA 2011–2020, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 99

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (JJA Map2021-2030, II.93: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Temperature (JJA 2021–2030, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 100 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (JJA Map2031-2040, II.94: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Temperature (JJA 2031–2040, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 101

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (JJA Map2041-2050, II.95: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Temperature (JJA 2041–2050, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Average Seasonal Temperature 102 Projection (SON, RCP 4.5)

SON are historically the coldest months of the year. The projected average temperature Warmer north for SON shows they will continue to be Maldives’ coldest months. However, there is a Warmer Maldives in general increase in the average temperature from 27.95°C–28.50°C in 2011–2020 to the future 28.50°C–29.05°C in 2041–2050. SON are the coldest months

Maldives: Seasonal AverageMaldives: TemperatureMap Seasonal II.96: Average Maldives,Maldives: Temperature Seasonal Average Average SeasonalMaldives: Temperature Seasonal Temperature Average Temperature Projection (SON, RCP 4.5) (SON 2011-2020, RCP 4.5)(SON 2021-2030, RCP 4.5)(SON 2031-2040, RCP 4.5)(SON 2041-2050, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (SONMap 2011-2020, II.97: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Temperature (SON 2011–2020, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 104 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (SONMap 2021-2030, II.98: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Temperature (SON 2021–2030, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 105

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (SONMap 2031-2040, II.99: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Temperature (SON 2031–2040, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 106 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (SONMap 2041-2050, II.100: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 4.5) Average Temperature (SON 2041–2050, RCP 4.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Average Annual Temperature Projection (RCP 8.5) 107

In the RCP 8.5 scenario, Maldives is projected to be warmer in the 2030s and 2040s, especially in the northern atolls. Average temperature will increase from 29.05oC– Warmer north 29.60oC in the 2020s and 2030s to 29.60°C–30.15°C in the 2040s. Warmer Maldives in the future

Maldives: Annual AverageMaldives: Temperature AnnualMap Average II.101:Maldives: Temperature Maldives, Annual AverageAverageMaldives: Temperature Annual Annual Temperature Average Temperature Projection (RCP 8.5) (2011-2020, RCP 8.5) (2021-2030, RCP 8.5) (2031-2040, RCP 8.5) (2041-2050, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N ATOLL 6°0'0"N Temperature (ºC) ATOLL 6°0'0"N 6°0'0"N Temperature (ºC) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Temperature (ºC) ATOLL 6°0'0"N Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) (N) (N) (N) RAA RAA 27.68–28.00 RAA 27.68–28.00 RAA 27.68–28.00 27.68–28.00 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI (R) 28.00–28.40 LHAVIYANI (R) 28.00–28.40 LHAVIYANI (R) 28.00–28.40 LHAVIYANI 28.00–28.40 ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL ATOLL (Lh) 28.40–28.80 (Lh) 28.40–28.80 (Lh) 28.40–28.80 (Lh) 28.40–28.80 28.80–29.20 28.80–29.20 28.80–29.20 28.80–29.20

Maldives: Annual Average Temperature (2011-2020,Map II.102: RCP Maldives, 8.5) Annual Average Temperature (2011–2020, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.68–28.00 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 28.00–28.40 ATOLL (Lh) 28.40–28.80 28.80–29.20

BAA 29.20–29.60 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 29.60–30.00 ATOLL (K) 30.00–30.40 30.40–30.80 ALIFU ALIFU 30.80–31.20 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 31.20–31.60 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 109

Maldives: Annual Average Temperature (2021-2030,Map II.103: RCP Maldives, 8.5) Annual Average Temperature (2021–2030, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.68–28.00 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 28.00–28.40 ATOLL (Lh) 28.40–28.80 28.80–29.20

BAA 29.20–29.60 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 29.60–30.00 ATOLL (K) 30.00–30.40 30.40–30.80 ALIFU ALIFU 30.80–31.20 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 31.20–31.60 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 110 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Annual Average Temperature (2031-2040,Map II.104: RCP Maldives, 8.5) Annual Average Temperature (2031–2040, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.68–28.00 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 28.00–28.40 ATOLL (Lh) 28.40–28.80 28.80–29.20

BAA 29.20–29.60 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 29.60–30.00 ATOLL (K) 30.00–30.40 30.40–30.80 ALIFU ALIFU 30.80–31.20 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 31.20–31.60 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 111

Maldives: Annual Average Temperature (2041-2050,Map II.105: RCP Maldives, 8.5) Annual Average Temperature (2041–2050, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.68–28.00 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 28.00–28.40 ATOLL (Lh) 28.40–28.80 28.80–29.20

BAA 29.20–29.60 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 29.60–30.00 ATOLL (K) 30.00–30.40 30.40–30.80 ALIFU ALIFU 30.80–31.20 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 31.20–31.60 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Average Seasonal Temperature 112 Projection (DJF, RCP 8.5)

The RCP 8.5 average temperature projection for DJF (average range of Warmer north 28.50°C–29.05°C) shows no spatial variation in the temperature across Maldives Warming in northern from 2011 to 2030. The temperature will start to rise in the 2030s, reaching Maldives in the future 29.05°C–29.60°C. By the 2040s, the northern and middle portion of Maldives will RCP 8.5 projected higher temperature be warmer, with an average range of 29.60°C–30.15°C. than RCP 4.5

Maldives: Seasonal AverageMaldives: TemperatureMap Seasonal II.106: Average Maldives,Maldives: Temperature Seasonal Average AverageMaldives: Seasonal Temperature Seasonal Temperature Average Temperature Projection (DJF, RCP 8.5) (DJF 2011-2020, RCP 8.5)(DJF 2021-2030, RCP 8.5)(DJF 2031-2040, RCP 8.5)(DJF 2041-2050, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (DJFMap 2011-2020, II.107: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Temperature (DJF 2011–2020, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 114 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (DJFMap 2021-2030, II.108: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Temperature (DJF 2021–2030, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 115

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (DJFMap 2031-2040, II.109: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Temperature (DJF 2031–2040, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 116 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (DJFMap 2041-2050, II.110: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Temperature (DJF 2041–2050, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Average Seasonal Temperature Projection (MAM, RCP 8.5) 117

The RCP 8.5 average temperature projection shows that MAM in Maldives will be warmer at 29.60°C–30.15°C in the 2020s and 2030s. Northern Maldives will experience warmer Warmer north temperature (reaching 30.15°C–30.70°C in the 2040s) during these months. Warmer Maldives in the future

Maldives: Seasonal AverageMaldives: TemperatureMap Seasonal II.111: Average Maldives,Maldives: Temperature Seasonal Average Average SeasonalMaldives: Temperature Seasonal Temperature Average Temperature Projection (MAM, RCP 8.5) (MAM 2011-2020, RCP 8.5)(MAM 2021-2030, RCP 8.5)(MAM 2031-2040, RCP 8.5)(MAM 2041-2050, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (MAMMap 2011-2020, II.112: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Temperature (MAM 2011–2020, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 119

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (MAMMap 2021-2030, II.113: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Temperature (MAM 2021–2030, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 120 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (MAMMap 2031-2040, II.114: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Temperature (MAM 2031–2040, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 121

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (MAMMap 2041-2050, II.115: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Temperature (MAM 2041–2050, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Average Seasonal Temperature 122 Projection (JJA, RCP 8.5)

For JJA, the pattern of average seasonal projected temperature based on RCP 8.5 shows Warmer north that the northern and middle portions of Maldives are warmer compared to the southern Warming in middle region. JJA will be warmer in the coming decades, especially in the 2040s, as atolls Maldives in the future experience temperatures ranging from 29.05°C to 30.15°C, with higher temperatures in RCP 8.5 projected higher temperature the middle portion of Maldives. As with other seasonal projections, RCP 8.5 depicts a in 2041–2050 than warmer scenario compared to RCP 4.5. RCP 4.5

Maldives: Seasonal AverageMaldives: TemperatureMap Seasonal II.116: Average Maldives,Maldives: Temperature Seasonal Average AverageMaldives: Seasonal Temperature Seasonal Temperature Average Temperature Projection (JJA, RCP 8.5) (JJA 2011-2020, RCP 8.5)(JJA 2021-2030, RCP 8.5)(JJA 2031-2040, RCP 8.5)(JJA 2041-2050, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (JJA Map2011-2020, II.117: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Temperature (JJA 2011–2020, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 124 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (JJAMap 2021-2030, II.118: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Temperature (JJA 2021–2030, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 125

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (JJAMap 2031-2040, II.119: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Temperature (JJA 2031–2030, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 126 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (JJAMap 2041-2050, II.120: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Temperature (JJA 2041–2050, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Average Seasonal Temperature Projection (SON, RCP 8.5) 127

SON will still be the coldest months, according to the average temperature projection using Warmer north (2020s and 2040s) RCP 8.5. The northern half of Maldives will be warmer in the 2020s and 2040s, compared Warming in the to the 2010s and 2030s when the temperature is even from north to south. The coming future decades will be warmer as the temperature increases from 27.95°C–28.50°C in the 2010s RCP 8.5 projected to 29.05°C–29.60°C in the 2040s. higher temperature in 2041–2050 than RCP 4.5

Maldives: Seasonal AverageMaldives: TemperatureMap Seasonal II.121: Average Maldives,Maldives: Temperature Seasonal Average Average SeasonalMaldives: Temperature Seasonal Temperature Average Temperature Projection (SON, RCP 8.5) (SON 2011-2020, RCP 8.5)(SON 2021-2030, RCP 8.5)(SON 2031-2040, RCP 8.5)(SON 2041-2050, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E70°6'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E72°8'0"E 76°12'0"E74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA) HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (SONMap 2011-2020, II.122 Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Temperature (SON 2011–2020, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 129

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (SONMap 2021-2030, II.123: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Temperature (SON 2021–2030, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 130 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (SONMap 2031-2040, II.124: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Temperature (SON 2031–2040, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Future Climate 131

Maldives: Seasonal Average Temperature (SONMap 2041-2050, II.125: Maldives, RCP Seasonal 8.5) Average Temperature (SON 2041–2050, RCP 8.5)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI Legend ATOLL (Sh) Administrative Area Administrative Atoll NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL Temperature (ºC) 6°0'0"N (N) RAA 27.40–27.95 ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI 27.95–28.50 ATOLL (Lh) 28.50–29.05 29.05–29.60

BAA 29.60–30.15 ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ 30.15–30.70 ATOLL (K) 30.70–31.25 31.25–31.80 ALIFU ALIFU 31.80–32.35 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 32.35–32.95 MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn) Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas 025 50 100 150 (bathymetry); ME (administrative areas and atolls); Kilometers and SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander- WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) partner.com (temperature).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Summary of Observations 132 for Rainfall

Similar to the historical annual average rainfall distribution, northern Maldives will continue to receive more rainfall compared to the southern region. However, this may vary depending on the season. The wettest months will still be JJA. During this period, rainfall will mostly be distributed in the north. Except for the slight variation in the area receiving 4–8 mm/day of rainfall, the projections for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 show no difference.

Table II.2: Variation in Rainfall Patterns across Space, Time, and Representative Concentration Pathways

Climate Maps Spatial Seasonal Decadal RCP 4.5 vs RCP 8.5 Average Annual Wetter north - - - (4.6–5.8 mm/ day) Average Seasonal Wetter north Generally dry - - season Projected Mean Annual (4.5) Wetter north - Wetter north in the future No difference with 8.5 Projected Mean Seasonal (4.5) DJF Wetter south Dry season Wetter southern atolls Smaller coverage of 4–8 mm/day Projected Mean Seasonal (4.5) MAM Generally dry Driest season No change No difference with 8.5 Projected Mean Seasonal (4.5) JJA Wetter north Wettest season Wetter north in the future No difference with 8.5 Projected Mean Seasonal (4.5) SON Wetter north Wet season No change Smaller coverage of 4–8 mm/day Projected Mean Annual (8.5) Wetter north - Wetter north in the future No difference with 4.5 Projected Mean Seasonal (8.5) DJF Wetter south Dry season More atolls in the south Greater coverage of will experience higher 4–8 mm/day rainfall rate Projected Mean Seasonal (8.5) MAM Generally dry Driest season No change No difference with 4.5 Projected Mean Seasonal (8.5) JJA Wetter north Wettest season Wetter north in the future No difference with 4.5 Projected Mean Seasonal (8.5) SON Wetter north Wet season More atolls in the north Greater coverage of with 4–8 mm/day rainfall 4–8 mm/day rate

– = not applicable; DJF = December, January, February; JJA = June, July, August; MAM = March, April, May; mm/day = millimeter per day; RCP = representative concentration pathway; SON = September, October, November. Source: SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander–partner.com. Summary of Observations for Temperature 133

Maldives will experience a warmer climate in the 2030s and 2040s. Greater warming will be felt in the northern atolls, especially in MAM. This pattern is consistent across seasons and decades. However, the RCP 8.5 projections show a significantly warmer possibility compared with the RCP 4.5.

Table II.3: Variation in Temperature Patterns across Space, Time, and Representative Concentration Pathways

Climate Maps Spatial Seasonal Decadal RCP 4.5 vs RCP 8.5 Average Annual Warmer north (28–28.4°C) - Warmer Maldives - especially in the future Average Seasonal - MAM is the - - warmest month, SON is the coldest month Projected Mean Annual Warmer north - Future warmer Maldives Lower temperature (4.5) especially in the north compared to 8.5 Projected Mean Warmer north - Warmer Maldives Lower temperature Seasonal (4.5) DJF especially in the future compared to 8.5 Projected Mean Warmer north MAM is the Future warmer Maldives Lower temperature Seasonal (4.5) MAM warmest month especially in the north compared to 8.5 Projected Mean Warmer north - Future warmer Maldives Lower temperature Seasonal (4.5) JJA especially in the north compared to 8.5 Projected Mean Warmer north SON is the Future warmer Maldives Lower temperature Seasonal (4.5) SON coldest month especially in the north compared to 8.5 Projected Mean Annual Warmer north - Future warmer Maldives Higher temperature (8.5) especially in the north compared to 4.5 Projected Mean Even temperature across - Future warmer Maldives Higher temperature Seasonal (8.5) DJF Maldives except in 2040s especially in the north compared to 4.5 Projected Mean Warmer north Warmest Future warmer Maldives Higher temperature Seasonal (8.5) MAM months especially in the north compared to 4.5 Projected Mean Warmer north - Warming in the middle of Higher temperature Seasonal (8.5) JJA Maldives compared to 4.5 Projected Mean Warmer north in 2020s and Coldest months Future warmer Maldives Higher temperature Seasonal (8.5) SON 2040s especially in the north compared to 4.5

– = not applicable; °C = degree Celsius; DJF = December, January, February; JJA = June, July, August; MAM = March, April, May; RCP = representative concentration pathway; SON = September, October, November. Source: SANDER + PARTNER. 2017. www.sander–partner.com. 134 Geophysical Hazards

Maldives has experienced several disasters in the past. According to a 2006 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report in which cyclone tracks were analyzed across the century, Maldives has only experienced 11 cyclones in 12 decades, with the strongest cyclones crossing northern Maldives (UNDP 2006). Although cyclones are not a frequently recurring hazard in the country, they still bring wind, rain, and storm surges to the low-lying islands. Flooding, usually caused by a surge, has recurred several times in Maldives. Bodu raalhu (big waves) flooded a few islands in 1987. Northeastern islands are mostly affected by storm surges (UNDP 2006).

Aside from cyclones, Maldives also experiences earthquakes and tsunamis. In 25 years, three earthquakes with a magnitude of at least 7.0 hit Maldives (UNDP 2006). The UNDP report also estimated the decay of peak ground acceleration for a 475–year return period. Results showed that the southern Gnaviyani Atoll and Addu Atoll have the highest peak ground acceleration. Movements at subduction zones, usually occurring at the edges of the tectonic plates, generate earthquakes, which in turn generate tsunamis. The most devastating disaster was the tsunami on 26 December 2004. It generated waves up to 4.2 meters that damaged at least a dozen of the inhabited islands and thousands of homes, affected thousands of lives, and lost about two–thirds of the country’s gross domestic product (UNDP 2006). Based on UNDP’s model, the eastern borders of atolls have higher probability of experiencing tsunamis at 320–450 centimeters high.

Tsunami Monument. Various hazards, including tsunamis, have affected Maldives in the past. This Tsunami Monument stands at the shores of Malé in memory of the people who died during the 2004 tsunami (photo by Utsav Mulay). Geophysical Hazards 135

Maldives: CyclonicMap Wind II.126: Maldives,Hazard CyclonicZone Wind Hazard Zone

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI ATOLL (Sh)

NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL 6°0'0"N (N) RAA ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI ATOLL (Lh) Legend Administrative Area

BAA Administrative Atoll ATOLL NORTH Probable Maximum Wind (B) MALÉ ATOLL Speed (knots) (K) 0.00 ALIFU 55.90 ALIFU ATOLL 69.60 (AA) SOUTH 84.20 MALÉ ATOLL 96.80

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn)

Data Sources: 025 50 100 150 BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry). Kilometers Other data from Maldives agencies: ME (administrative areas WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) and atolls); and UNDP (cyclonic wind hazard zones).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 136 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: Surge HazardMap II.127: Zone Maldives, Surge Hazard Zone

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI ATOLL (Sh)

NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL 6°0'0"N (N) RAA Legend ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI Administrative Area ATOLL (Lh) Administrative Atoll Surge Hazard Zone BAA Very Low ATOLL NORTH (B) MALÉ Low ATOLL (K) Moderate High ALIFU ALIFU Very High ATOLL (AA) SOUTH MALÉ ATOLL

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn)

025 50 100 150 Data Sources: BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry). Kilometers Other data from Maldives agencies: ME (administrative areas WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N ADDU ATOLL (S) and atolls); and UNDP (surge hazard zones).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Geophysical Hazards 137

Maldives: Seismic MapHazard II.128: Zone Maldives, Seismic Hazard Zone

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI ATOLL (Sh)

NOONU Legend 6°0'0"N ATOLL 6°0'0"N (N) RAA Administrative Area ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI Island Shoreline ATOLL Reef Boundary (Lh) Water Body

BAA Peak Ground Acceleration ATOLL NORTH Values for 475 Years (B) MALÉ Return Period ATOLL (K) Less than 0.04 0.04–0.05 ALIFU ALIFU 0.05–0.07 ATOLL (AA) SOUTH 0.07–0.18 MALÉ ATOLL 0.18–0.32

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" 0°0'0" ¯ GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn)

Data Sources: 025 50 100 150 BODC, IHO, and IOC. 2003. GEBCO Digital Atlas (bathymetry). Other data from Maldives agencies: ME (administrative areas, Kilometers ADDU ATOLL (S) island shorelines, reef boundaries, and water bodies); and WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N UNDP (seismic hazard zones).

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E 138 Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives—Climate and Geophysical Hazards

Maldives: TsunamiMap Hazard II.129: ZoneMaldives, Tsunami Hazard Zone

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E

HAA ALIFU ATOLL (HA)

HAA DHAALU ATOLL (HDh) SHAVIYANI ATOLL (Sh)

NOONU

6°0'0"N ATOLL 6°0'0"N (N) RAA ATOLL (R) LHAVIYANI ATOLL (Lh) Legend Administrative Area

BAA Administrative Atoll ATOLL NORTH Range of Probable Maximum (B) MALÉ ATOLL Wave Height (centimeters) (K) Less than 30

ALIFU 30–80 ALIFU ATOLL 80–250 (AA) SOUTH 250–320 MALÉ ATOLL 320–450

4°0'0"N (K) 4°0'0"N ALIFU DHAALU ATOLL VAAVU (ADh) ATOLL (V) FAAFU I N D I A N O C E A N ATOLL (F) MEEMU ATOLL DHAALU (M) ATOLL (Dh)

THAA ATOLL (Th) 2°0'0"N 2°0'0"N

LAAMU ATOLL (L) A r a b i a n S e a

GAAFU ALIFU ATOLL (GA)

GAAFU DHAALU ATOLL (GDh) 0°0'0" ¯ 0°0'0" GNAVIYANI ATOLL (Gn)

70°6'0"E 72°8'0"E 74°10'0"E 76°12'0"E Map Data Sources 139

Government Ministries, Departments, and Agencies in Maldives Civil Aviation Authority Airports Land and Survey Authority Atoll capital islands Cities Meteorological Service Automatic weather stations Meteorological observation stations Ministry of Economic Development Ports Ministry of Environment Administrative areas Administrative atolls Island shorelines Reef boundaries Water bodies

International Institutions General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans Digital Atlas 2003, published by the British Oceanographic Data Centre on behalf of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission and International Hydrographic Organization Bathymetry SANDER + PARTNER. www.Sander-Partner.com Rainfall Temperature United Nations Development Programme. 2006. Developing a Disaster Risk Profile for Maldives. Cyclonic wind hazard zone Seismic hazard zone Surge hazard zone Tsunami hazard zone 140 References

Asian Development Bank. 2015. Maldives: Overcoming the Challenges of a Small Island State. Country Diagnostic Study. Manila.

Khan, T., D. Quadir, T. Murty, A. Kabir, F. Aktar, and M. Sarker. 2002. Relative Sea Level Changes in Maldives and Vulnerability of Land Due to Abnormal Coastal Inundation. Marine Geodesy. pp. 133–143.

Moosa, F. S. 2014. Country Report: Republic of Maldives. Asian Disaster Reduction Centre.

Pachauri, R. K., and L. A. Meyer, eds. 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Geneva, Switzerland.

United Nations Development Programme. 2006. Developing a Disaster Risk Profile for Maldives. Maps were prepared by the Country Consultant Team and the Manila Observatory on behalf of the Asian Development Bank. Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives Climate and Geophysical Hazards—Volume II

This atlas provides spatial information about Maldives and thematic maps necessary for assessing future development investments in terms of climate risks and geophysical hazards. It is also intended to support the formulation of cobeneficial options for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction and management. The five-volume atlas is a major output of the project “Establishing a National Geospatial Database for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into Development Activities and Policies in Maldives” under the Asian Development Bank’s regional knowledge and support (capacity development) technical assistance Action on Climate Change in South Asia (2013–2018).

The Multihazard Risk Atlas of Maldives is composed of Geography—Volume I, Climate and Geophysical Hazards —Volume II, Economy and Demographics—Volume III, Biodiversity—Volume IV, and Summary—Volume V.

About the Asian Development Bank

ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members —49 from the region. Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance.

Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines www.adb.org