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The Race Towards a Lighter-Than-Air Economy HYDROGEN: RISING FAST in the GLOBAL ENERGY MIX

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The Race Towards a Lighter-Than-Air Economy HYDROGEN: RISING FAST in the GLOBAL ENERGY MIX ALTERNATIVE ENERGY December 2020 The race towards a lighter-than-air economy HYDROGEN: RISING FAST IN THE GLOBAL ENERGY MIX ANALYSTS: Anne Margaret Crow +44 (020) 3077 5700 Dan Gardiner +44 (020) 3077 5700 [email protected] Page 2 of 49 KEY POINTS • Renewable ‘green’ hydrogen will be needed to decarbonize the • Longer term, as renewable hydrogen become more widely final 20% of global energy consumption, enabling governments available, we see potential for deployment in industrial to fulfill their net zero carbon commitments. processes, residential heating, shipping and aviation. • Government investment, subsidies and new policy frameworks • The share prices of many hydrogen exposed stocks have are needed to explicitly encourage hydrogen adoption by doubled or quadrupled in 2020, making them sensitive to delivering sufficient scale to lower costs below the point at any setbacks in market growth. Most companies profiled which subsidies are required. However, the level of support are at an early stage of revenue development, few are that will be provided is uncertain. consistently profitable. Moreover many may require potentially dilutive additional funding. Investors should • Widespread availability of electrolysers using surplus power therefore consider their options carefully. from renewable sources to generate green hydrogen is critical for meaningful green hydrogen adoption. Until green hydrogen is widely available we see scope for fuel cells to be used in heavy duty vehicles and materials handling applications. We also see scope for fuel cells that can run on natural gas or methanol and for off-grid distributed power and back-up generation applications in emissions sensitive areas. Page 3 of 49 Companies mentioned in this report: 2G Energy* > ENGIE EPS > Plug Power > AFC Energy > Everfuel > PowerCell Sweden > Ballard Power Systems > FuelCell Energy > Powerhouse Energy Group > Bloom Energy > ITM Power > Pressure Technologies > Ceres Power > McPhy > Proton Motor Power Systems > Doosan Fuel Cell > Nel Hydrogen > SFC Energy > *Edison Investment Research client Page 4 of 49 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Climate change remains at the top of the Sectors ripe for hydrogen decarbonisation Understanding the hydrogen market global political agenda. However the ‘net zero’ targets committed to by numerous ‘Hard to reach’ sectors such as steelmaking, The companies profiled in this report are some governments cannot be achieved without residential and commercial heating, long-distance of those that will most clearly benefit from the road freight, shipping and aviation, have no obvious, transition to a hydrogen economy. Many of these the use of renewable hydrogen. This is low-cost, convenient alternatives to fossil fuels, are at an early stage of revenue development, because while cheap renewable power and collectively account for approximately 34% still require significant additional funding, and combined with battery storage looks set of global energy consumption. Hydrogen’s high few are consistently profitable, yet investor to address sections of the transport and energy to mass ratio and low losses during storage interest has been high, as have valuations. This power sectors, important gaps remain and transportation make it an ideal fit across these makes their share prices sensitive to any set-backs that hydrogen is well suited to fill. sectors. There is also scope for fuels cells to be causing growth to fail to live up to expectations. used in off-grid generation, distributed generation, An understanding of the key market dynamics is and back-up power. critical for those wishing to invest in the sector. Page 5 of 49 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The tech behind green hydrogen Enabling the transition – pushing down Virtuous circle required – government costs of fuel cells and renewable hydrogen funding and regulatory frameworks key The key technology underpinning the transition At present, neither renewable hydrogen nor fossil- These cost reductions are predicated on the creation is the fuel cell, which generates electricity from based hydrogen with carbon capture are cost- of a virtuous circle that drives hydrogen adoption hydrogen. Working in reverse, electrolysers use competitive with fossil-based hydrogen. However and triggers the economies of scale required. This electricity to generate hydrogen from water. costs for renewable hydrogen are going down requires government investment in infrastructure, Currently, 99% of the hydrogen produced globally quickly. Electrolyser costs have reduced by 60% R&D, as well as an enabling regulatory framework. is done so through techniques based on fossil-fuels, in the last ten years. For regions where renewable Although it is impossible to say how successful so the widespread deployment of electrolysers electricity is cheap, electrolysers are expected to investment and policy initiatives will be, the level of running off surplus wind and solar power is needed be able to compete with fossil-based hydrogen by support is likely to be the major determinant of to ensure enough ‘green’ or renewable hydrogen. 2030. The cost of fuel cells is also expected to fall. how rapidly the market grows. The report concludes by profiling 18 companies that look set to gain from growth in hydrogen demand. Suppliers of electrolysers and fuel cells such as Ballard Power Systems, Ceres Power, ITM Power, NEL Hydrogen, McPhy and Plug Power appear particularly well positioned but companies engaged in other parts of the hydrogen supply chain such as ENGIE EPS, Everfuel and Pressure Technologies also stand to benefit. Page 6 of 49 THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY – DECARBONISING THE FINAL 20% At least 20 countries, collectively Hydrogen essential to achieving Decarbonising the representing around 70% of global ‘net zero’ targets hard-to-reach sectors GDP, are proposing hydrogen strategies or roadmaps as key elements of their ‘Net zero’ targets cannot be achieved, in our view, Hydrogen is critical for replacing coal and gas in without green hydrogen. While ever cheaper fossil-fuel intensive industrial processes such as decarbonisation plans. This report electricity from renewables combined with battery steelmaking. By storing the excess energy generated identifies the sectors where we see the storage looks set to address large swathes of the by renewables until it is needed, hydrogen can help biggest opportunities for hydrogen: transport and power sectors, important gaps remain. address intermittency in the power sector and industrial processes, heating, fuel cell Hydrogen’s high energy to mass ratio and low losses provides a potential path for decarbonising heating. buses and trucks (not passenger cars), during storage and transportation makes it suitable Hydrogen’s high energy to mass ratio makes it grid and back-up power generation in for addressing these gaps. Recently published particularly suitable for heavy-duty, long-distance areas with strict restrictions on emissions forecasts from the EU, the Hydrogen Council and road freight, maritime and aviation applications. and materials-handling equipment. Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) suggest hydrogen could grow from 2% of the global energy It also identifies the listed companies mix in 2018 to 13–24% by 2050, a c 8% CAGR at that are likely to benefit. the mid-point. Page 7 of 49 THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY – DECARBONISING THE FINAL 20% Adoption still dependent on Investing in the government initiatives hydrogen transition Investment in hydrogen technology and capacity This report profiles 18 companies that look set to has accelerated in the last year, analysts have lifted gain from growth in hydrogen demand. Suppliers of long-term forecasts and share prices have soared. electrolysers and fuel cells such as Ballard Power Yet hydrogen has a long history of not delivering on Systems, Ceres Power, ITM Power and Plug Power its potential. Historically its role has been limited appear particularly well positioned but other parts by high production costs and the need for new and of the hydrogen supply chain will also benefit. adapted infrastructure to support distribution and While most companies profiled do not depend on an storage. Falling renewable costs are addressing the acceleration in market growth to be viable, most of price premium for green hydrogen, but governments these are at an early stage of revenue development will also need to provide investment and implement and few are consistently profitable. Therefore policies that explicitly encourage hydrogen adoption significant, potentially highly dilutive, additional and deliver the scale required to drive down costs. funding may be required. Equally, those that establish a technology leadership could prove highly attractive acquisition targets for more established industry players. Investment in hydrogen technology and capacity has accelerated in the last year Page 8 of 49 CONTENTS BUILDING THE HYDROGEN DEMAND INVESTING IN THE HYDROGEN HYDROGEN ECONOMY 9 BY SECTOR 18 ECONOMY: COMPANY PROFILES 27 Hydrogen: A unique fuel 9 Industrial processes 18 2G Energy (2GB:GR) 29 Hydrogen: A key enabler in achieving ‘net zero’ 10 Heating 19 AFC Energy (AFC:LN) 29 Converting ambition into reality: Policy and economics 11 Transportation 20 Ballard Power Systems (BLDP:US) 30 Policy initiatives 13 Buses, trucks and delivery vehicles 21 Bloom Energy (BE:US) 32 Cost of renewable hydrogen 14 Maritime 22 Ceres Power (CWR:LN) 33 Enabling technology: Electrolysers and fuel cells 14 Rail 23 Doosan Fuel Cell (336260:KRX) 34 Fuel cell types 15 Materials handling 23
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