The Political Culture of Democracy in Peru: 2006
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………… …………… …………………… ……………… ……………………… ………………… … …………………………… … TTTHHHEEE PPPOOOLLLIIITTTIIICCCAAALLL CCCUUULLLTTTUUURRREEE OOOFFF DDDEEEMMMOOOCCCRRRAAACCCYYY IIINNN PPPEEERRRUUU::: 222000000666 ………… …………… …………………… ……………… ……………………… ………………… … …………………………… … By: Julio F. Carrión, University of Delaware Patricia Zárate, Institute for Peruvian Studies (Instituto de Estudios Peruanos) Mitchell A. Seligson, Ph.D. Scientific Coordinator and series editor, Vanderbilt University ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… … This study has been carried out with sponsorship granted by the Democracy and Governability Program of the United States Agency for International Development. Opinions expressed in this study correspond to the authors and do not necessarily reflect the points of view of the United States Agency for International Development. Cultura política de la democracia en Perú: 2006 Table of contents List of figures iv List of tables vii Preface viii Prologue x Executive Summary xvii 1 Context: Peru in the New Century 1 1.1 Peru in the Andean Context 1 1.2 Economic Context 4 1.3 Political Context: Election Normalcy and Political Polarization 8 1.4 Public Opinion Studies in Peru 10 2 Sample Framework: A National Survey 17 2.1 The Sample 18 2.1.1 Stratification ..............................................................................................................................18 2.1.2 Selection Stages.........................................................................................................................20 2.1.3 Calculating the Margin of Error ................................................................................................21 2.2 Sample Description 23 3 The Concept of Democracy in Peruvian Public Opinion 29 3.1 Traditional Conceptions: freedom, equality, participation and protection 30 3.2 Alternative Conceptions Based on Rationality-of-Belief 39 3.3 Appendix. Results of Regression Analyses 45 4 Attitudinal Base for a Stable Democracy 49 4.1 Support for the Political System 49 4.2 Political Tolerance 60 4.3 Attitudinal Bases for a Stable Democracy 68 4.4 Appendix. Additional Graphs and Regression Analyses 74 4.4.1 Comparative Graphs: Support for the Political System.............................................................74 4.4.2 Comparative Political Tolerance Graphs...................................................................................77 4.4.3 Regression Analysis: Support for the System and Political Tolerance .....................................79 5 Citizen Trust in Political Institutions 87 Appendix. Additional Graphs and the Results of the Regression Analyses 98 5.1.1 Additional Political Trust Graphs..............................................................................................98 5.1.2 Regression Model Results .......................................................................................................100 6 The Impact of Corruption 103 6.1 Perception of Corruption 105 6.2 Victimization by Corruption 110 6.3 Victimization by Corruption and Political Attitudes 113 7 Citizen Security and Democracy 117 7.1 The challenge of crime 117 7.2 Perceptions of Personal Insecurity 124 7.3 Citizen Security and Democracy 127 7.3.1 Citizen Security and the Rule of Law......................................................................................127 7.3.2 Citizen Security and Democracy .............................................................................................129 8 Democracy at the Local Level: Public Opinion of Municipal Government 133 8.1 Satisfaction with Local Government 135 8.2 Trust in Local Government 139 ii Cultura política de la democracia en Perú: 2006 8.3 Citizen Participation in Local Government 140 8.4 Decentralization: more or less of it? 145 8.5 Appendix. Additional Graphs and Regression Analyses 147 8.5.1 Additional Graphs ...................................................................................................................147 8.5.2 Results of the Regressions.......................................................................................................149 9 Political Preferences and Electoral Behavior 152 9.1 Ideology and Party Preferences 152 9.2 Party Identification 155 9.3 Electoral Behavior 157 9.4 Appendix. Results of the Regression Analysis 165 10 Social Participation 169 10.1 Community Participation 170 10.2 Participation in Social Organizations 173 10.3 Participation in Public Demonstrations 176 10.4 Appendix. Results of the Regression Analysis and Legislation on Citizen Participation 180 10.4.1 Results of Regression Analyses......................................................................................180 10.4.2 Legislation on Citizen Participation................................................................................183 Anexo I: Cuestionario utilizado 187 Anexo II: Efectos del Diseño 215 iii Cultura política de la democracia en Perú: 2006 List of figures Figure 1.1 Human Development Index for the Andean Countries and Latin America, 2003 .............2 Figure 1.2 Evolution of the Human Development Index in Andean Countries, 1975-2003 .................3 Figure 1.3 GNP Annual Percentage Variation, 2000-2006......................................................................4 Figure 1.4 Andean Countries and Latin America: GNP Annual Percentage Variation, 2005 ............5 Figure 1.5. Growth Indices for GNP, Employment and Income, January 2005-July 2006..................6 Figure 1.6 Peru: Evaluation of the Individual’s Economic Situation, 2006...........................................7 Figure 1.7. Peru: Evaluation of the Country’s Economic Situation, 2006.............................................8 Figure 2.1 Peru: Sample Distribution per Age Group, 2006.................................................................23 Figure 2.2 Peru: Sample Distribution per Completed Years of Education, 2006 ...............................24 Figure 2.3 Peru Sample Distribution per Region...................................................................................25 Figure 2.4 Peru: Sample Distribution for Average levels of Possession of Material Goods per Region ....................................................................................................................................................................26 Figure 2.5 Peru: Average Number of Persons Whose Parents Speak a Native Language per Region ....................................................................................................................................................................27 Figure 3.1 Latin America: Governmental Regime Preferences, 2006..................................................31 Figure 3.2 Peru: Traditional Conceptions of Democracy and Political Regime Preferences, 2006...34 Figure 3.3 Peru: Traditional Conceptions of Democracy According to Gender, 2006.......................36 Figure 3.4 Peru: Traditional Definitions of Democracy by Level of Education, 2006........................37 Figure 3.5 Peru: Traditional Definitions of Democracy in the Southern High-Plain and in Other Regions, 2006.............................................................................................................................................37 Figure 3.6 Peru: Traditional Definitions of Democracy per “Subjective” Income, 2006...................38 Figure 3.7 Peru: Traditional Definitions of Democracy and Political Regime Preferences, 2006.....40 Figure 3.8 Latin America: Alternative Conceptions of Democracy .....................................................40 Figure 3.9 Peru: Alternative Conceptions of Democracy per Educational Level, 2006. ....................43 Figure 3.10 Peru: Alternative Definitions of Democracy per Place of Origin, 2006...........................44 Figure 3.1 Peru: Alternative Definitions of Democracy per Area of Residence, 2006........................44 Figure 4.1 Latin America: Average Levels of Support for the Political System, 2006 .......................51 Figure 4.2 Peru: Support for the System per Parental Language, 2006..............................................57 Figure 4.3 Peru: Support for the System per Place of Residence, 2006...............................................57 Figure 4.4 Peru: Support for the System per Degree of Approval of President, 2006........................58 Figure 4.5 Peru: Support for the System per Degree of Satisfaction with life, 2006 ..........................58 Figure 4.6 Peru: Support for the System per Level of Victimization of Corruption, 2006................59 Figure 4.7 Peru: Support for the System per Ideology, 2006................................................................59 Figure 4.8 Peru: Support for the System per Level of Satisfaction with the Local Government, 2006 ....................................................................................................................................................................60 Figure 4.9 Latin America: Average Level of Political Tolerance, 2006 ...............................................62 Figure 4.10 Peru: Average levels of Political Tolerance per Region (Southern High-Plain vs. other regions), 2006.............................................................................................................................................64 Figure 4.11 Peru: Average levels of Political Tolerance per Interest in Politics, 2006 .......................65 Figure 4.12 Peru: Averages of Tolerance per Condition of Victim by Crime,