Selwyn District Council Tracy-Anne Cross Paul Dalziel and Caroline Saunders Research Report No. 271 , October 2004 LINe OLN t~t,,-"" 1 U N I V E R 5 I T Y "- ! ~ AE u Tr 1I ~.r' ,..~.,. 0 ..1 ••• ,1 ~ "CI lOX II. lI~COllIll~lnUITY. CANnnUItY IUD. Nl_ llAUftD Research to improve decisions and outcomes in agribusiness, resource, environmental, and social issues. The Agribusiness and Economics Research Unit (AERU) operates from Lincoln University providing research expertise for a wide range of organisations. AERU research focuses on agribusiness, resource, environment, and social issues. Founded as the Agricultural Economics Research Unit in 1962 the AERU has evolved to become an independent, major source of business and economic research expertise. The Agribusiness and Economics Research Unit (AERU) has five main areas of focus. These areas are trade and environment; economic development; business and sustainability, non- market valuation, and social research. 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Selwyn District Council Tracy-Anne Cross Paul Dalziel and Caroline Saunders October 2004 Research Report No. 271 Agribusiness and Economics Research Unit PO Box 84 Lincoln University Canterbury New Zealand Ph: (64)(3) 325 3627 Fax: (64)(3) 325 3847 http://www.lincoln.ac.nz/AERU/ ISSN 1170-7682 ISBN 0-909042-54-3 Table of Contents LIST OF TABLES i LIST OF FIGURES ii PREFACE iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY vii CHAPTER 1 ECONOMIC BACKGROUND 1 1.1 The Macro-Economy and Policy Context 1 1.2 Size and Characteristics of the Business Sector in North Canterbury 3 1.3 Estimating the District’s GDP 7 CHAPTER 2 AREA DEMOTRAPHICS 9 2.1 Population 9 2.2 Labour Force 11 2.3 Ethnicity 12 2.4 Academic Achievement 13 2.5 Age Groups 14 2.6 Housing 17 2.7 Income and Expenditure 18 CHAPTER 3 NATURAL RESOURCES 21 3.1 Land 21 3.2 Water 22 3.3 Soils 25 3.4 Climate 25 CHAPTER 4 PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE 27 4.1 Roads 27 4.2 Harbours 27 4.3 Airport 28 4.4 Rail 29 4.5 Water and Sewerage 30 4.6 Power Distribution 30 4.7 Telecommunications 30 APPENDIX 1 35 APPENDIX 2 45 APPENDIX 3 51 APPENDIX 4 57 List of Tables 1. Selected Economic Indicators 2 2. Selected Financial Indicators 3 3. Selwyn District Employment 6 4. Selwyn District Population 9 5. Selwyn District Population 10 6. Selwyn District Population 10 7. Selwyn District Projected Resident Population 11 8. Selwyn District Labour Force Status 2001 11 9. Selwyn District Usually Resident Population 15 10. Selwyn District projected Population Change 16 11. Number of Occupied Private Dwellings 17 12. Average Annual Household Spending 2001 19 13. Maximum Allocated Weekly Rate of Take in Canterbury 23 14. Summary of Estimated Future Irrigation Water Demand 23 15. Summary of Estimated Future Peak 7-day Water Demand 24 16. Selwyn Water Resource Zone 24 17. Climate Data for Selected Weather Stations 26 18. Access to Telecommunication Systems 31 19. Selwyn District Data Capability 32 20. Selwyn District Access to ADSL Based Private Office Products 33 21. Agriculture/Horticulture Sector Employment Geographic Units and Full-time Equivalent Persons Engaged 37 22. Selwyn District Number of Farms and Land Area 38 23. Selwyn District Farm Numbers by Farm Type 39 24. Livestock and Farm Numbers 40 25. Grain and Seed Crops 40 26. Fruit Trees and Vines 41 27. Area in Outdoor Crops 42 28. Area in Indoor Crops 43 29. Net Stocked Forest Area by Age Class 46 30. Net Stocked Planted Production Forest Area 47 31. Forestry Sector Employment Geographic Units and Full-time Equivalent Persons Engaged 48 32. Selwyn District Sawmills 49 33. Canterbury Clearfell Age Scenarios 33 34. Actual and Base Cut Forecast 50 35. Accommodation Establishments and Capacity 51 36. Accommodation Statistics 52 37. Canterbury Market Share 53 38. Tourism Sector Employment Geographic Units and Full-time Equivalent Persons Engaged 54 39. Average Annual Daily Traffic Counts for State Highway 73 55 40. Visitor Numbers to Department of Conservation’s Arthur’s Pass Visitor Centre 55 i List of Figures 1. New Zealand Real Gross Domestic Products 1 2. Selwyn District Employment 4 3. Selwyn District Employment by Industry 5 4. Selwyn District Employment 7 5. Regional Unemployment Rates 2001 12 6. Selwyn District Academic Attainment 13 7. Selwyn District Usually Resident Population 14 8. Total Personal Income for Usually Resident Population 18 9. Selwyn District Land Usage 22 10. Share of New Zealand Seaport Cargo Lyttelton Port and Timaru Port 28 11. Share of New Zealand Airport Cargo Christchurch International Airport 29 12. Land Use in New Zealand 45 ii Preface This report is part of the ongoing economic development research in the AERU. It provides an economic baseline report of the current level of resources in the Selwyn District and how they have changed over recent times. This includes the overall macro economic and policy context; the business sector and employment; population and how this is changing; as well as the natural resources and the infrastructure in the district. This is of vital importance to planners and developers, among others, in the region in providing important information about the region to help facilitate economic development. We welcome the opportunity to be involved in this work especially in our local district and to contribute to local economic development. Professor Caroline Saunders Director iii iv Acknowledgements This Report was commissioned by the Selwyn District Council. The authors are particularly grateful to the Economic Development Officer of the Selwyn District Council, Ann Jarman, for helping us to identify data sources and providing us with full access to information already gathered. We are also pleased to acknowledge the information we received from Bill Murch (Telecom New Zealand Limited). v vi Executive Summary This report identifies important characteristics of the Selwyn District as summarised below. Economic Background 1. The New Zealand economy has enjoyed steady or strong economic growth over the last ten years. Unemployment is low, inflation is stable and the terms of trade have been favourable. Despite these positive trends, policymakers are concerned that current growth rates are not fulfilling New Zealand’s potential. This has led to a much greater policy focus on regional resources and opportunities. 2. Two data sources provide details of employment for the Selwyn District – the five- yearly Census (which includes direct employment in agriculture) and the annual Business Frame Update Survey (which does not). The later identified 1,905 business locations in the Selwyn District, employing 7,540 full-time equivalent employees. A high proportion of these are small businesses (five or fewer full-time equivalent employees), and only six businesses employ more than 100 full-time equivalents. Excluding direct agriculture employment, the largest areas of employment in the Selwyn District are in the education, property and business services, and government, administration and defence sectors. 3. The 2001 Census records that 3,054 of Selwyn District’s employed residents have jobs in the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry (20.3 percent). A further 1,782 residents (11.9 percent) are employed in manufacturing, with 1,314 residents (8.8 percent) employed in retail trade. This Census data includes commuters to jobs outside the region (especially Christchurch City). Area Demographics 1. The number of people living in The Selwyn District increased by 10.2 percent between 1996 and 2001, and is expected to grow by 33.2 percent over the next twenty years. 2. On Census night 2001, the Selwyn District labour force was comprised of 11,601 full- time workers, 3,408 part-time workers, and 513 unemployed workers. 3. There is little ethnic diversity in the Selwyn District, with the region’s Pacific and Asian populations being significantly lower than nationally. One of the 18 Papatipu Rūnanga of Ngāi Tahu spread throughout the South Island, is based in the Selwyn District. There is a marae at Taumutu near the mouth of Lake Ellesmere (Te Waihora). 4. The percentage of people living in the Selwyn District with a tertiary education is above the national average, while the percentage with no formal qualifications is lower. The Selwyn District has a higher than average proportion of people with vocational qualifications. Between 1999 and 2003, school rolls in the Selwyn District increased by 5.0 percent. 5. The most significant increase in the Selwyn District’s population was recorded in the group aged 50-54 years. The median age of people living in the Selwyn District is slightly higher than the national median, and is projected to rise further over the next 20 years. This is likely to have an impact on future employment in the area. vii 6. Between 1996 and 2001, the number of occupied private dwellings increased by 16.3 percent in the Selwyn District. The Selwyn District Council issued considerably more building consents in 2003 than in 2002 and 2001.