House of Commons Public Administration Select Committee Who does UK National Strategy? First Report of Session 2010–11 Report, together with formal minutes, oral and written evidence Ordered by the House of Commons to be printed 12 October 2010 HC 435 Published on 18 October 2010 by authority of the House of Commons London: The Stationery Office Limited £0.00 The Public Administration Select Committee The Public Administration Select Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the reports of the Parliamentary Commissioner for Administration and the Health Service Commissioner for England, which are laid before this House, and matters in connection therewith, and to consider matters relating to the quality and standards of administration provided by civil service departments, and other matters relating to the civil service. Current membership Mr Bernard Jenkin MP (Conservative, Harwich and North Essex) (Chair) Kevin Brennan MP (Labour, Cardiff West) Nick de Bois MP (Conservative, Enfield North) Michael Dugher MP (Labour, Barnsley East) Charlie Elphicke MP (Conservative, Dover) Paul Flynn MP (Labour, Newport West) Robert Halfon MP (Conservative, Harlow) David Heyes MP (Labour, Ashton under Lyne) Greg Mulholland MP (Lib Dem, Leeds North West) Jon Trickett MP (Labour, Hemsworth) Mr Charles Walker MP (Conservative, Broxbourne) Powers The powers of the Committee are set out in House of Commons Standing Orders, principally in SO No 146. These are available on the Internet via www.parliament.uk Publications The Reports and evidence of the Committee are published by The Stationery Office by Order of the House. All publications of the Committee (including press notices) are on the Internet at http://www.parliament.uk/pasc Committee staff The current staff of the Committee are Clive Porro (Clerk), Ben Williams (Second Clerk), Louise Glen (Senior Committee Assistant) and Su Panchanathan (Committee Assistant) Contacts All correspondence should be addressed to the Clerk of the Public Administration Select Committee, Committee Office, First Floor, 7 Millbank, House of Commons, London SW1P 3JA. The telephone number for general enquiries is 020 7219 5730; the Committee’s email address is [email protected] Who does UK National Strategy? 1 Contents Report Page Summary 3 1 Introduction 5 2 Defining Strategy 7 Origins 7 Strategy as process 7 Confusing strategy and policy 8 The value of the term ‘Grand Strategy’ 8 3 Do we a need a ‘National Strategy’? 10 Examples of strategic failure: Iraq and Afghanistan 10 The evolving strategic context 12 Principles of good strategy making 13 4 Capacity to make strategy 14 5 The way forward 16 Strategic Leadership 16 Structure and Frameworks 17 Where should strategy reside? 17 A role for the NSC? 18 Improving cross-departmental working 18 SDSR and strategy 19 Strategic Thinking Skills 20 A national strategic assessment capability? 22 External Input to National Strategy. 23 Accountability and scrutiny 24 Funding National Strategy and strategy making 25 6 Conclusion 26 Formal Minutes 34 Witnesses 35 List of written evidence 35 List of Reports from the Committee during the current Parliament 36 Who does UK National Strategy? 3 Summary Strategy is today a ubiquitous a term. Consequently it has lost its precision and become detached from its original military meaning. Every organisation, at almost every level, has strategies for dealing with perceived risks and taking forward opportunities. This report is not concerned with these sorts of plans or lists of actions. It looks instead into the capacity we have as a country to devise and sustain a continuing process which can promote our national interest. This was once defined as ‘Grand Strategy’. However, while its imperial, and potentially hubristic associations, may prove a hindrance, the notion inherent in it, that of an overarching process intrinsic to good governance, remains of value. It can best be described as ‘National Strategy’. It has long been assumed that UK national interests are best served by the touchstones of the US special relationship and our economic interests within the European Union. Uncritical acceptance of these assumptions has led to a waning of our interests in, and ability to make, National Strategy. Recent events such as 9/11, climate change and the banking crisis are making us think differently about the world, but require us to find the means by which we can anticipate and understand these challenges and devise an appropriate response to them. If we now have a renewed need for National Strategy, we have all but lost the capacity to think strategically. We have simply fallen out of the habit, and have lost the culture of strategy making. The new Government’s aspiration to think strategically is most welcome but to restore strategic leadership ministers must invest time and energy into this. It is the only way to stimulate demand for strategic analysis and assessment within government. It must be supported by the establishment of specific mechanisms with appropriate authority. Therefore, we propose that the recently established National Security Council and the post of National Security Adviser should have their remit widened to encompass National Strategy with a central coordinating role. The single most important thing which can be done to restore our strategic capacity is to have a community of strategists, both inside and outside Whitehall. To foster such a community, government will need to look at its recruitment practices. We propose that the Civil Service and defence training establishments should come together to deliver an education programme and a career appraisal system should recognise and reward strategic skills. For this reason we welcome the efforts of the previous Chief of the Defence Staff to engender a culture of strategic thinking. We encourage the new Chief to sustain and enhance this initiative and invite him to report to us on progress. The disparate and uncoordinated elements for analysis and assessment which currently exist in government also need to be harnessed. We propose that the tested Whitehall audit 4 Who does UK National Strategy? tool of a capability review should be employed to ensure that capacity in departments is properly brought together. We anticipate that, in time, this cross-Whitehall capability can be developed into a new agency as a resource available to the whole of government. We propose that research funding to universities in this area is at least maintained to ensure there is sufficient external input into strategy making in government. Interchange with outside bodies and academia must be positively encouraged and facilitated. We also propose that parliamentary accountability and scrutiny is adequate to the task by widening the remit of the Joint Committee on National Security Strategy. Its makeup should also reflect the diverse interests in National Strategy with membership drawn from appropriate select committees, including ours. We are conscious of the current financial circumstances. Our proposals have therefore sought to be largely cost neutral. However, we propose a small budget to enable central coordination of departmental contributions to National Strategy in a coherent fashion. Who does UK National Strategy? 5 1 Introduction Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat. Sun Tzu 1. On 26th May this year, the Rt Hon William Hague MP, Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary told the House of Commons: This Government reject the idea of strategic shrinkage. We believe that this would be to retreat as a nation at the moment when a more ambitious approach is required.1 Later, in July, in the first of four major speeches, he proposed “a distinctive British Foreign Policy that extends our global reach and influence”. He claimed that “the previous government had neglected to lift its eyes to the wider strategic needs of this country, to take stock of British interests…”. 2 2. He said that the Strategic Defence and Security Review, “will be a fundamental reappraisal of Britain’s place in the world and how we operate within it”. He continued: “the increasingly multipolar world […] means […] that we must become more active”.3 In what he called “our new Government’s vision of foreign affairs”, he concluded: So we are raising our sights for the longer term, looking at the promotion of British interests in the widest sense. In the coming months, we will develop a national strategy for advancing our goals in the world […].4 3. This is the context in which we decided to hold an inquiry into, “Who does UK Grand Strategy?” in order to provide a fresh appraisal of the qualities of strategic thinking in government and any recommendations for improvements. 4. PASC’s 2007 inquiry on ‘Governing the Future’ examined strategic thinking within government. That report noted that: Future thinking is an uncertain business. Strategies should be kept under review so that they take account of new information and developments in research. Willingness to adjust policy in light of new evidence or changing circumstances should be seen as a sign of strength, not of weakness.5 1 HC Deb, 26 May 2010, col 174 2 Britain’s Foreign Policy in a Networked World, 1 July 2010 , http://www.fco.gov.uk/en/news/latest- news/?view=Speech&id=22472881. 3 Ibid 4 Ibid 5 Public Administration Select Committee, Second Report of Session 2006–07, Governing the Future, HC 123–I 6 Who does UK National Strategy? 5. The previous Government published the first National Security Strategy in March 2008, followed by a second a year later.6 One of the first acts of the new Government was to establish a National Security Council (NSC). An early priority for the NSC has been to oversee the development of a new version of the National Security Strategy alongside a Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR). 6. However, concerns continue to be expressed, publicly and strongly, that the UK has long since lost both the ability to articulate its national interests and the capacity to think strategically about how to meet them.