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MS Work 2011 Daniel Meyer Master´s Thesis, 60 credits Ecosystems, Governance and Globalization Master´s programme 2008/10, 120 credits Transitions and Resilience in the Frozen Commons Linking Aquaculture, Krill Fishery, Governance and Ecosystem change in the Scotia Sea, Southern Ocean Daniel E. Meyer TRANSITIONS AND RESILIENCE IN THE FROZEN COMMONS: LINKING AQUACULTURE, KRILL FISHERY, GOVERNANCE AND ECOSYSTEM CHANGE IN THE SCOTIA SEA, SOUTHERN OCEAN Daniel E. Meyer Master’s Thesis in Ecosystems, Resilience and Governance (ERG) 120 credits Supervision: Henrik Österblom Stockholm Resilience Centre 2011 ABSTRACT The Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) is a forage fish species that is increasing in importance for Southern Ocean fisheries and world aquaculture production. However, this species also has a fundamental role in the Scotia Sea food-web and is the main conservation target for the region’s natural resource management organization - the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR). The aim of this thesis is therefore to examine the inter-relationship between CCAMLR, krill fishery and the Scotia Sea ecosystem in the Southern Ocean, as well as broader socio-economical and ecological settings since 1970s and measure system resilience. The premise here is that the current krill-regime in the Scotia Sea must be understood as a complex adaptive system (CAS) of social, ecological and economical attributes that operates over different temporal and spatial scales. Thus, by applying the framework of a social-ecological system (SES), together with the adaptive cycle heuristic model, both quantitative and qualitative data is revised and integrated. Two alternate management states are identified within the krill-regime; an early krill fishery state (1972 – 1991), and an ecosystem based governance state (1991 - 2010). Resilience is however fading in the Scotia Sea due to a combination of cross-scale attributes, in a range from low krill density (n/m¯²), increased competition for marine resources between predators and krill fishery, to elevated demand and global market prices of non-food commodities by the aquaculture sector in Asia, thus, moving the Scotia Sea towards an unknown fish-regime. Although such future regime is still retained by the region’s slow changing physical variables such as sea ice and seasonality, as well as the adaptive management capacity of CCAMLR, the sudden appearance of an undesirable regime in the Scotia Sea would probably have comprehensive socio-ecological consequences if reached. ACKNOWLEDEMENTS First of all, I would to thank my supervisor, Henrik Österblom, from Baltic Nest Institute and Stockholm Resilience Centre who patiently supported me during the examination year. I want to thank Miriam Huitric and Lisa Deutsch, also from the Stockholm Resilience Centre for their support. Many thanks to Angus Atkinson from the British Antarctic Survey, and Steve Nicol from Australian Antarctic Division, and Chiara Piroddi from the Fisheries Centre at University of British Columbia, Canada. And finally, I wish to express gratitude to my Academia friends Quentin Dilasser, Rolands Sadauskis, and Ulla Gabrielsson for your comments. 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Abbreviation Figure and tables INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 8 THEORY ............................................................................................................................................... 10 Resilience .......................................................................................................................................... 10 Adaptive cycle ................................................................................................................................... 11 Social-ecological systems .................................................................................................................. 12 Governance ........................................................................................................................................ 14 Ecosystem dynamics ......................................................................................................................... 16 Research framework .......................................................................................................................... 19 CASE STUDY DESCRIPTION ........................................................................................................... 20 The Southern Ocean .......................................................................................................................... 20 The Scotia Sea ................................................................................................................................... 20 Antarctic krill .................................................................................................................................... 22 Krill predators .................................................................................................................................... 23 Forage fishery .................................................................................................................................... 24 Forage fishery in the Southern Ocean ............................................................................................... 25 Management of the Southern Ocean ................................................................................................. 26 CCAMLR .......................................................................................................................................... 27 METHOD .............................................................................................................................................. 31 Epistemological background ............................................................................................................. 31 Methodological approach .................................................................................................................. 32 Indicators ........................................................................................................................................... 33 Applying the adaptive cycle .............................................................................................................. 34 Data sources ...................................................................................................................................... 35 Critical reflection of method and data used ....................................................................................... 36 RESULTS .............................................................................................................................................. 38 Users (U) ........................................................................................................................................... 38 Resource system (RS) ....................................................................................................................... 41 Resource unit (RU) ............................................................................................................................ 42 Governance system (GS) ................................................................................................................... 43 Related ecosystems (ECO) ................................................................................................................ 44 Socio-economical settings (S) ........................................................................................................... 46 DISCUSSION ....................................................................................................................................... 49 CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................................................... 56 REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................................... 58 Appendices 3 ABBREVIATION ACC Antarctic Circumpolar Current ACZ Antarctic Convergence Zone APEI Antarctic Peninsula Elephant Island APDPE Antarctic Peninsula Drake Passage East APDPW Antarctic Peninsula Drake Passage West APGR Average Annual Percentage Growth Rate AT Antarctic Treaty ATCM Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting CAS Complex Adaptive Systems CCAMLR Convention/Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources CEMP CCAMLR Ecosystem Monitoring Program CM Conservations Measures ECO Ecological/Environmental Setting EA Ecosystem Approach ES Executive Secretariat FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FIGIS Fisheries Global Information System GS Governance System I Interactions IFFO International Fishmeal and Fish Oil Organisations IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature IUU Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated LC Least Concern MOR Mid-oceanic Ridges NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration O Outcomes PA Precautionary Approach RS Resource System RU Resource Unit S Socio-economical Setting SES Social-ecological System SC Scientific Committee SCAF Standing Committee on Administration Finance SCOI Standing Committee on Observation and Inspection SOW South Orkney West SSMU Small-scale Management Unit THC Thermohaline Circulation U Users UNCLAS United Nations Convention on the Law of the
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