DOCSLIB.ORG

CLIMATE RESEARCH and SEASONAL FORECASTING for WEST AFRICANS Perceptions, Dissemination, and Use?

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
CLIMATE RESEARCH and SEASONAL FORECASTING for WEST AFRICANS Perceptions, Dissemination, and Use? CLIMATE RESEARCH AND SEASONAL FORECASTING FOR WEST AFRICANS Perceptions, Dissemination, and Use? BY AONDOVER TARHULE AND PETER J. LAMB Very few people in the Sahel use the results of climate research, and few have access to seasonal forecasts, even though the vast majority seem willing to use such information. uring the past 25 years, BAMS has emerged as a since 1913 (Grove 1973), and likely was among the forum for presenting ideas concerning the driest for several centuries (Nicholson 1978). Note Ddesign, use, quality, and value of seasonal climate that 1973 was only slightly wetter. forecasts (e.g., Glantz 1977; Lamb 1981; Easterling Glantz justified his hypothetical approach using so- 1986; Hastenrath 1986, 1990; Sonka et al. 1992; cial science reasoning that emphasized the "antithesis" Pulwarty and Redmond 1997; Barnston et al. 1999; of Utopia ("what ought to be") versus reality ("what Nicholls 1999). The process began with Glantz's is"). At the time, there was a complete lack of a sea- (1977) landmark study for the West African Sahel in sonal prediction capability for the West African Sahel which, using a retrospective questionnaire approach, due to the total absence of relevant research. While "People representing several disciplines and fields of Glantz's "tentative conclusion" was negative, namely endeavor were asked what they would have done in that "given the national structures in the Sahelian October 1972 had they had an accurate forecast in states in which a potential technological capability terms of monthly averages of rainfall and temperature would be used, the value of a long-range forecast, even for the rainy season (July-September) in 1973." a perfect one, would be limited" (p. 156), his "prelimi- Figure 1 conveys the high contemporary relevance of nary assessment" also was optimistic that the value of Glantz's question—the 1972 West African rainy sea- a long-range forecast "could be greatly enhanced if its son was by far the driest for many decades, probably implementation were to be coupled with the removal AFFILIATIONS: TARHULE—Department of Geography, University of E. Boyd Street, Norman, OK 73019 Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma; LAMB—Cooperative Institute for E-mail: [email protected] Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, and School of Meteorology, DOI: 10.1 175/BAMS-84-12-1741 University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma In final form 21 July 2003 CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Dr. Aondover Tarhule, Department © 2003 American Meteorological Society of Geography, University of Oklahoma, Sarkeys Energy Center, 100 AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY DECEMBER 2003 BAfft I 1741 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 05:36 AM UTC tention in recent decades, not only be- cause of the globally unparalleled per- sistence of anomalously low rainfall (Fig. 1), but also because of the ex- tremely low capacity of social and eco- logical systems for coping with such extremes. As a result of this low capac- ity, extreme climate variability, such as drought, is frequently accompanied by ecological decline, decimation of live- stock herds, widespread food scarcity, mass migrations, and great loss of hu- man life. For example, as many as FIG. I. Time series (1941-2001) of avg normalized Apr-Oct rainfall 250,000 people, along with 12 million departure (d) for 20 stations in the West African Soudano-Sahel zone cattle, are estimated to have died from (I I°-I8°N) west of I0°E. Renormalized and updated from earlier ver- starvation during the 1968-73 sions in Lamb (1978, 1982, 1985) and Lamb and Peppier (1991, 1992), Soudano-Sahelian drought (Fig. 1; where further details can be found. Borton and Clay 1986; Glantz 1994, p. 36). In the early to mid-1980s, of the numerous social, political, and economic ob- drought again imperiled millions of Africans (Fig. 1), stacles ... (that would permit)... for example ... the creating famine and refugee crises throughout much control of watering points, the establishment of range of the continent, including the Soudano-Sahel zone. reserves, the determination of an optimal carrying Beyond the humanitarian disaster, economic losses capacity, the development of an adequate market in- totaled several hundred million U.S. dollars, greatly frastructure and the like" (p. 157). disrupting the fragile economies of the affected young Twenty-five years later, we felt the time was op- countries (Benson and Clay 1998). portune to revisit the issues of seasonal forecasting and The capacity for dealing with drought and other its underpinning climate research for the people of climate variations principally depends on the extent West Africa. The effort reported here was encouraged to which (i) the problem is understood, (ii) such by a wide range of important developments during knowledge is accessible to potential victims and policy the intervening quarter century—the striking persis- makers, and (iii) society and vulnerable groups have tence of poor Sahelian rainy seasons (Fig. 1); consid- the ability to put that understanding into practice erable research into the characteristics, causes, pre- (Van Apeldoorn 1981). To date, research on dictability, and impacts of Sahelian drought and Soudano-Sahel climate variability has largely empha- rainfall variability; the strong evolution of most na- sized requirement (i) above, that is, the physical causes tional structures in West Africa toward democracy of climate variability and dimensions of its direct so- and economic liberalization; the establishment and cietal impacts. The considerable research and moni- maturation of West African institutions with regional toring in response to the 1968-73 drought has gen- responsibilities for climate monitoring and impact erated much information on the dynamics and assessment and mitigation; emergence of a well- social-ecological impacts of Soudano-Sahel drought defined international procedure for the annual prepa- (e.g., Charney 1975; Lamb 1978; Folland et al. 1986; ration, dissemination, and verification of research- Nicholson and Entekhabi 1986; Lamb and Peppier based seasonal rainfall forecasts for West Africa; and 1991, 1992; Hulme 1992; Hulme et al. 1992a; Eltahir the ever-improving electronic technology available to and Gong 1996; Darkoh 1998; Zeng et al. 1999; communicate climate research information and sea- Nicholson 2000). sonal forecasts. We elaborate on these motivations in In contrast, and despite the challenge offered by the next two sections, before presenting and discuss- Glantz's (1977) optimistic preliminary assessment, ing our new results. there has been relatively little systematic evaluation of how, or even if, the results of the research are uti- CLIMATE INFORMATION AND DECISION- lized by communities and activities at risk, that is, MAKING CONTEXT. Climate variability in the requirements (ii) and (iii) above. Such evaluation is Soudano-Sahel savanna zone (approximately 10°- useful for two reasons. First, it cannot be assumed that 18°N) of Africa has attracted much international at- research designed by climate scientists automatically 1742 | BAI1S- DECEMBER 2003 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 05:36 AM UTC yields results useful for people impacted by climate Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), variability (e.g., Lamb 1981; Stern and Easterling ACMAD, and AGRHYMET. The initial annual re- 1999). Second, there is a need to establish the path- sult of this collaboration is the issuance in May or ways through which information on climate variabil- early June of a seasonal forecast map for sub-Saharan ity, such as potentially beneficial climate research West Africa (expressed in tercile probabilities for findings and seasonal forecasts based on such findings, subregions; see online at www.acmad.ne/uk/) by the reaches vulnerable groups. A decade ago, an assessment West African Climate Outlook Forum. Next, each of this situation by Hulme et. al (1992b) still yielded NMHS uses this forecast map as guidance to develop a pessimistic outlook for West Africa. More recently, and present forecast information relevant to its coun- the Climate Forecasting for Agricultural Resources try to some form of a national Multidisciplinary Fore- (C FAR) project has begun addressing some of these is- cast Monitoring Group (MFMG). The MFMG com- sues by considering incentives and constraints to imple- position varies somewhat between countries, but menting seasonal forecasts in one Soudano-Sahelian generally consists of representatives of various gov- nation, Burkina Faso (e.g., Kirshen and Flitcroft 2000; ernment agencies (e.g., Ministries of Agriculture, Roncoli et al. 2001, 2002; Ingram et al. 2002). Water Resources, Public Health, Environment), in- This pathway issue is especially timely because re- ternational organizations (e.g., FEWS), research in- cent advances concerning the dynamics of African stitutes [e.g., International Agriculture Organization climate variability, including its linkages with the rest (IAO), International Crop Research Institute for the of the global climate system, have improved signifi- Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)], and organizations cantly the prospects for medium-range to seasonal [including CILSS and nongovernmental organiza- weather/climate forecasting (i.e., for 1 week to sev- tions (NGOs)] concerned with managing climate eral months in advance) for the Soudano-Sahel zone variability and implementing mitigation activities in (e.g., Lamb and Peppier 1991,1992; Eltahir and Gong drought-prone regions. Decisions regarding the na- 1996; Thiaw et al. 1999). Indeed, this expanding tional forecast
Load more

Recommended publications
  • NWS Unified Surface Analysis Manual
    Unified Surface Analysis Manual Weather Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Honolulu Forecast Office November 21, 2013 Table of Contents Chapter 1: Surface Analysis – Its History at the Analysis Centers…………….3 Chapter 2: Datasets available for creation of the Unified Analysis………...…..5 Chapter 3: The Unified Surface Analysis and related features.……….……….19 Chapter 4: Creation/Merging of the Unified Surface Analysis………….……..24 Chapter 5: Bibliography………………………………………………….…….30 Appendix A: Unified Graphics Legend showing Ocean Center symbols.….…33 2 Chapter 1: Surface Analysis – Its History at the Analysis Centers 1. INTRODUCTION Since 1942, surface analyses produced by several different offices within the U.S. Weather Bureau (USWB) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) National Weather Service (NWS) were generally based on the Norwegian Cyclone Model (Bjerknes 1919) over land, and in recent decades, the Shapiro-Keyser Model over the mid-latitudes of the ocean. The graphic below shows a typical evolution according to both models of cyclone development. Conceptual models of cyclone evolution showing lower-tropospheric (e.g., 850-hPa) geopotential height and fronts (top), and lower-tropospheric potential temperature (bottom). (a) Norwegian cyclone model: (I) incipient frontal cyclone, (II) and (III) narrowing warm sector, (IV) occlusion; (b) Shapiro–Keyser cyclone model: (I) incipient frontal cyclone, (II) frontal fracture, (III) frontal T-bone and bent-back front, (IV) frontal T-bone and warm seclusion. Panel (b) is adapted from Shapiro and Keyser (1990) , their FIG. 10.27 ) to enhance the zonal elongation of the cyclone and fronts and to reflect the continued existence of the frontal T-bone in stage IV.
    [Show full text]
  • Clima Te Change 2007 – Synthesis Repor T
    he Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up jointly by the World Meteorological Organization and the TUnited Nations Environment Programme to provide an authoritative international statement of scientific understanding of climate change. The IPCC’s periodic assessments of the causes, impacts and possible response strategies to climate change are the most comprehensive and up-to-date reports available on the subject, and form the standard reference for all concerned with climate change in academia, government and industry worldwide. This Synthesis Report is the fourth element of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report “Climate Change 2007”. Through three working groups, many hundreds of international experts assess climate change in this Report. The three working group contributions are available from Cambridge University Press: Climate Change 2007 – The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (ISBN 978 0521 88009-1 Hardback; 978 0521 70596-7 Paperback) Climate Change 2007 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (978 0521 88010-7 Hardback; 978 0521 70597-4 Paperback) Climate Change 2007 – Mitigation of Climate Change CHANGE 2007 – SYNTHESIS REPORT CLIMATE Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (978 0521 88011-4 Hardback; 978 0521 70598-1 Paperback) Climate Change 2007 – Synthesis Report is based on the assessment carried out by the three Working Groups
    [Show full text]
  • AI4ESP1027 ( Many Types Including Tropical Cyclones Exhibit Greater Realism in High-Resolution, Multidecadal Simulations
    Tracking Extremes in Exascale Simulations Utilizing Exascale Platforms 1 Authors/Affiliations William D. Collins (LBNL and UC Berkeley) and the Calibrated and Systematic Characteriza- tion, Attribution, and Detection of Extremes (CASCADE) Scientific Focus Area (SFA) 2 Focal Area Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods 3 Science Challenge There is a growing recognition in the literature that understanding variability and trends in hy- drometeorological extremes relies on understanding variability and trends in the meteorological phenomena that drive these extremes. Such phenomenon-focused understanding relies critically on a robust methodology for identifying the occurrence of these phenomena in observations and model output, but a robust methodology does not currently exist. There are a variety of heuristic methods reported in the literature for identifying, and in some cases temporally tracking, meteo- rological phenomena. However, there have been several intercomparison projects (and resulting papers) indicating that there is a large uncertainty associated with choices in the identification methods; this is the case for extratropical cyclones (ETCs) [1], atmospheric rivers (ARs) [2], and even tropical cyclones (TCs) [3]; and we hypothesize that this is a general issue with heuristic identification methods altogether. These studies clearly show that this identification uncertainty leads to a large, and previously under-recognized, quantitative and even qualitative uncertainty in our understanding of these phenomena. In light of these issues, we suggest that the field could be advanced by addressing two overar- ching questions. First, can we explicitly quantify uncertainty associated with detecting hydrom- eteorological phenomena? Second, can we decompose detection uncertainty into reducible and irreducible parts? 4 Rationale Anthropogenically-forced climate changes in the number and character of extreme storms have the potential to significantly impact human and natural systems.
    [Show full text]
  • Alternative Earth Science Datasets for Identifying Patterns and Events
    https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20190002267 2020-02-17T17:17:45+00:00Z Alternative Earth Science Datasets For Identifying Patterns and Events Kaylin Bugbee1, Robert Griffin1, Brian Freitag1, Jeffrey Miller1, Rahul Ramachandran2, and Jia Zhang3 (1) University of Alabama in Huntsville (2) NASA MSFC (3) Carnegie Mellon Universityv Earth Observation Big Data • Earth observation data volumes are growing exponentially • NOAA collects about 7 terabytes of data per day1 • Adds to existing 25 PB archive • Upcoming missions will generate another 5 TB per day • NASA’s Earth observation data is expected to grow to 131 TB of data per day by 20222 • NISAR and other large data volume missions3 Over the next five years, the daily ingest of data into the • Other agencies like ESA expect data EOSDIS archive is expected to grow significantly, to more 4 than 131 terabytes (TB) of forward processing. NASA volumes to continue to grow EOSDIS image. • How do we effectively explore and search through these large amounts of data? Alternative Data • Data which are extracted or generated from non-traditional sources • Social media data • Point of sale transactions • Product reviews • Logistics • Idea originates in investment world • Include alternative data sources in investment decision making process • Earth observation data is a growing Image Credit: NASA alternative data source for investing • DMSP and VIIRS nightlight data Alternative Data for Earth Science • Are there alternative data sources in the Earth sciences that can be used in a similar manner? •
    [Show full text]
  • A Revised Tornado Definition and Changes in Tornado Taxonomy
    1256 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 29 A Revised Tornado Definition and Changes in Tornado Taxonomy ERNEST M. AGEE Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana (Manuscript received 4 June 2014, in final form 30 July 2014) ABSTRACT The tornado taxonomy presented by Agee and Jones is revised to account for the new definition of a tor- nado provided by the American Meteorological Society (AMS) in October 2013, resulting in the elimination of shear-driven vortices from the taxonomy, such as gustnadoes and vortices in the eyewall of hurricanes. Other relevant research findings since the initial issuance of the taxonomy are also considered and in- corporated, where appropriate, to help improve the classification system. Multiple misoscale shear-driven vortices in a single tornado event, when resulting from an inertial instability, are also viewed to not meet the definition of a tornado. 1. Introduction and considerations from a cumuliform cloud, and often visible as a funnel cloud and/or circulating debris/dust at the ground.’’ In The first proposed tornado taxonomy was presented view of the latest definition, a few changes are warranted by Agee and Jones (2009, hereafter AJ) consisting of in the AJ taxonomy. Considering the roles played by three types and 15 species, ranging from the type I buoyancy and shear on a variety of spatial and temporal (potentially strong and violent) tornadoes produced by scales (from miso to meso to synoptic), coupled with the the classic supercell, to the more benign type III con- requirement in the latest definition that a tornado must vective and shear-driven vortices such as landspouts and be pendant from a cumuliform cloud, it is necessary to gustnadoes.
    [Show full text]
  • Chapter 1 NWP (EES 753) (Reference) (Based on Lin 2007; Kalnay 2003; Yu Lec
    Chapter 1 NWP (EES 753) (reference) (Based on Lin 2007; Kalnay 2003; Yu Lec. Note) Chapter 1 Introduction and Historical Review 1.0 Introduction Basically, numerical weather prediction uses numerical methods to approximate a set of partially differential equations on discrete grid points in a finite area to predict the weather systems and processes in a finite area for a certain time in the future. In order to numerically integrate the partial differential equations, which govern the atmospheric motions and processes, with time, one needs to start the integration at certain time. In order to do so, the meteorological variables need to be prescribed at this initial time, which are called initial conditions. Mathematically, this corresponds to solve an initial-value problem. Due to practical limitations, such as computing power, numerical methods, etc., we are forced to make the numerical integration for predicting weather systems in a finite area. In order to do so, it is necessary to specify the meteorological variables at the boundaries, which include upper, lower, and lateral boundaries, of the domain of interest. Mathematically, this corresponds to solve a boundary- value problem. Thus, mathematically, numerical weather prediction is equivalent to solving an initial- and boundary- value problem. For example, to solve the following simple one-dimensional partial differential equation, u u U F(t, x) , (1.1) t x where u is the horizontal wind speed in x-direction, U the constant basic or mean wind speed, and F(t, x) is a forcing function, it is necessary to specify the , the variable to be predicted, at an initial time, say to .
    [Show full text]
  • Ams Announces New Chief Editor for the Glossary of Meteorology
    For Immediate Release Media Contact Rachel Thomas-Medwid 617-226-3955 AMS ANNOUNCES NEW CHIEF EDITOR FOR THE GLOSSARY OF METEOROLOGY May 1, 2018 – Boston, MA – The American Meteorological Society (AMS) announced that Dr. Ward R. Seguin has been appointed chief editor of the Glossary of Meteorology, effective January 1, 2018. Dr. Seguin succeeds Mary Cairns, who served as the Glossary’s chief editor from January 2013 through December 2017. Dr. Seguin is a Fellow of AMS and served as Commissioner of the AMS Scientific and Technological Activities Commission from 2013 to 2015. In 2009, Seguin retired from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration after 36 years of government service and is currently affiliated with Riverside Technology, Inc. of Fort Collins, Colorado. He has a Ph.D. from Florida State University in meteorology and is the recipient of the Department of Commerce Gold and Silver Medals. First established in 1959, the Glossary of Meteorology is among the leading reference sources in meteorology and related sciences. In 2013, the Glossary was converted to an electronic version and is now a living document, with updates as terms evolve. The chief editor for the Glossary is responsible for updating and revising existing terms and adding new terms. “AMS is proud of the 40-plus year history of the Glossary of Meteorology,” notes Director of Publications Ken Heideman. “Dr. Seguin is an outstanding choice to carry on the work.” # # # About AMS Founded in 1919, AMS is the leading voice in promoting and advancing the atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic sciences. We are committed to supporting and strengthening the weather, water, and climate community to ensure society fully benefits from scientific education, research, and understanding.
    [Show full text]
  • PARISFOG: Shedding New Light on Fog Physical Processes
    See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228412535 PARISFOG: Shedding new light on fog physical processes Article in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · June 2010 DOI: 10.1175/2009BAMS2671.1 CITATIONS READS 60 202 21 authors, including: Martial Haeffelin Thierry Bergot French National Centre for Scientific Research Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques 172 PUBLICATIONS 2,878 CITATIONS 54 PUBLICATIONS 1,110 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE Thierry Elias Robert Tardif Hygeos University of Washington Seattle 73 PUBLICATIONS 653 CITATIONS 38 PUBLICATIONS 778 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: Megha-Tropiques View project EMME-CARE: Eastern Mediterranean Middle East - Climate & Atmosphere Research Centre View project All content following this page was uploaded by Robert Tardif on 21 May 2014. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file. PARISFOG Shedding New Light on Fog Physical Processes BY M. HAEFFELIN , T. BERGOT , T. ELIAS , R. TARDIF , D. CARRER , P. CHAZETTE , M. COLOMB , P. D ROBINSKI , E. DUPONT , J.-C. DUPONT , L. GOMES , L. MUSSON -GENON , C. PIETRAS , A. PLANA -FATTORI , A. PROTAT , J. RANGOGNIO , J.-C. RAUT , S. RÉMY , D. RICHARD , J. SCIARE , AND X. ZHANG A field experiment covering more than 100 fog and near-fog situations during the winter of 2006–07 investigated the dynamical, microphysical, and radiative processes that drive the life cycle of fog. ow-visibility meteorological conditions, such as fog, are not necessarily considered extreme weather conditions, such as L those encountered in storms, but their effects on society can be just as significant.
    [Show full text]
  • A Glossary for Biometeorology
    Int J Biometeorol DOI 10.1007/s00484-013-0729-9 ICB 2011 - STUDENTS / NEW PROFESSIONALS A glossary for biometeorology Simon N. Gosling & Erin K. Bryce & P. Grady Dixon & Katharina M. A. Gabriel & Elaine Y.Gosling & Jonathan M. Hanes & David M. Hondula & Liang Liang & Priscilla Ayleen Bustos Mac Lean & Stefan Muthers & Sheila Tavares Nascimento & Martina Petralli & Jennifer K. Vanos & Eva R. Wanka Received: 30 October 2012 /Revised: 22 August 2013 /Accepted: 26 August 2013 # The Author(s) 2013. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com Abstract Here we present, for the first time, a glossary of berevisitedincomingyears,updatingtermsandaddingnew biometeorological terms. The glossary aims to address the need terms, as appropriate. The glossary is intended to provide a for a reliable source of biometeorological definitions, thereby useful resource to the biometeorology community, and to this facilitating communication and mutual understanding in this end, readers are encouraged to contact the lead author to suggest rapidly expanding field. A total of 171 terms are defined, with additional terms for inclusion in later versions of the glossary as reference to 234 citations. It is anticipated that the glossary will a result of new and emerging developments in the field. S. N. Gosling (*) L. Liang School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 Department of Geography, University of Kentucky, Lexington, 2RD, UK KY, USA e-mail: [email protected] E. K. Bryce P. A. Bustos Mac Lean Department of Anthropology, University of Toronto, Department of Animal Science, Universidade Estadual de Maringá Toronto, ON, Canada (UEM), Maringa, Paraná, Brazil P. G. Dixon S.
    [Show full text]
  • Type of the Paper (Article
    Article Rethinking climate, climate change, and their relationship with water Demetris Koutsoyiannis Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 157 80 Athens, Greece Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: We revisit the notion of climate, along with its historical evolution, tracing the origin of the modern concerns about climate. The notion (and the scientific term) of climate has been estab- lished during the Greek antiquity in a geographical context and it acquired its statistical content (average weather) in modern times, after meteorological measurements had become common. Yet the modern definitions of climate are seriously affected by the wrong perception of the previous two centuries that climate should regularly be constant, unless an external agent acted. Therefore, we attempt to give a more rigorous definition of climate, consistent with the modern body of sto- chastics. We illustrate the definition by real-world data, which also exemplify the large climatic var- iability. Given this variability, the term “climate change” turns out to be scientifically unjustified. Specifically, it is a pleonasm as climate, like weather, has been ever changing. Indeed, a historical investigation reveals that the aim in using that term is not scientific but political. Within the political aims, water issues have been greatly promoted by projecting future catastrophes while reversing the true roles and causality directions. For this reason, we provide arguments that water is the main element that drives climate and not the opposite. Keywords: climate; climate change; water; hydrology; climatology. Each definition is a piece of secret ripped from Nature by the human spirit.
    [Show full text]
  • Alternative Datasets for Identification of Earth Science Events and Data
    ALTERNATIVE DATASETS FOR IDENTIFICATION OF EARTH SCIENCE EVENTS AND DATA Kaylin Bugbee1, Robert Griffin1, Brian Freitag1, Jeffrey Miller1, Rahul Ramachandran2, Jia Zhang3 1University of Alabama in Huntsville 2NASA Marshall Space Flight Center 3Carnegie Mellon University ABSTRACT the Earth sciences. These data sources include, but are not limited to, the information found in numerous unstructured Alternative, or non-traditional, data sources can be used to text documents such as flight reports for airborne field generate datasets which can in turn be analyzed for campaigns, agricultural reports and weather forecast temporal, spatial and climatological patterns. Events and discussions. Information extracted from these documents can case studies inferred from the analysis of these patterns can be used to generate datasets that can be analyzed for spatial, be used by the remote sensing community to more temporal and climatological patterns in order to more effectively search for Earth observation data. In this paper, effectively identify interesting events or trends. Events and we present a new alternative Earth science dataset created trends extracted from these alternative data sources assist the from the National Weather Service’s Area Forecast remote sensing community in more efficiently identifying Discussion (AFD) documents. We then present an interesting events or use cases and can also help decision exploratory methodology for identifying interesting makers better understand reporting of anticipated hazards climatological patterns within the AFD data and a and disasters. These data can in turn be leveraged to build an corresponding motivating example as to how these data and event database that will help the remote sensing community patterns can be used to search for relevant events or case more effectively discover and use Earth observation data for studies.
    [Show full text]
  • By Peg Zenko
    by Peg Zenko Shrouds of gauze, creeping fingers across fields at dusk, a wall hiding nefarious events in mystery novels and scary movies: Fog fascinates us and stirs our imaginations. It has the ability to soften an otherwise harsh scene, to call into action the Fresnel Lenses of the Great Lakes lighthouses, make fantastic shadows of ordinary objects, and create stunning optical effects. Fog is, by WBAN (Weather Bureau, Air Force, and Navy) definition, the same as a cloud, but with its base close enough to the earth that it restricts visibility to less than 1 kilometer, or .62 miles. In the panoramic view below, we were driving into a thick bank of upslope fog in western Montana that was a lower extension of the clouds above a range in the Rocky Mountains. The peaks are about 8000 feet above sea level. Many manifestations of fog exist, and each has their own aesthetic characteristics. We can find descriptions of fog types in The AMS Glossary of Meteorology; that does not describe changes to the context of a scene. http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary Fog is produced in a variety of ways. Advection fog is the result of moist air passing over a cold surface, commonly seen in our area over the water of Green Bay. Radiation fog forms over land when the air temperature falls below the dew point, and can manifest itself in thick “pea soup” hazardous driving conditions on a clear sky night. Steam fog is a com- mon sight in fall, the result of very cold air flowing over relatively warm water.
    [Show full text]