RESEARCH AND SEASONAL FORECASTING FOR WEST AFRICANS Perceptions, Dissemination, and Use?

BY AONDOVER TARHULE AND PETER J. LAMB

Very few people in the Sahel use the results of climate research, and few have access to seasonal forecasts, even though the vast majority seem willing to use such information.

uring the past 25 years, BAMS has emerged as a since 1913 (Grove 1973), and likely was among the forum for presenting ideas concerning the driest for several centuries (Nicholson 1978). Note Ddesign, use, quality, and value of seasonal climate that 1973 was only slightly wetter. forecasts (e.g., Glantz 1977; Lamb 1981; Easterling Glantz justified his hypothetical approach using so- 1986; Hastenrath 1986, 1990; Sonka et al. 1992; cial reasoning that emphasized the "antithesis" Pulwarty and Redmond 1997; Barnston et al. 1999; of Utopia ("what ought to be") versus reality ("what Nicholls 1999). The process began with Glantz's is"). At the time, there was a complete lack of a sea- (1977) landmark study for the West African Sahel in sonal prediction capability for the West African Sahel which, using a retrospective questionnaire approach, due to the total absence of relevant research. While "People representing several disciplines and fields of Glantz's "tentative conclusion" was negative, namely endeavor were asked what they would have done in that "given the national structures in the Sahelian October 1972 had they had an accurate forecast in states in which a potential technological capability terms of monthly averages of rainfall and would be used, the value of a long-range forecast, even for the rainy (July-September) in 1973." a perfect one, would be limited" (p. 156), his "prelimi- Figure 1 conveys the high contemporary relevance of nary assessment" also was optimistic that the value of Glantz's question—the 1972 West African rainy sea- a long-range forecast "could be greatly enhanced if its son was by far the driest for many decades, probably implementation were to be coupled with the removal

AFFILIATIONS: TARHULE—Department of , University of E. Boyd Street, Norman, OK 73019 Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma; LAMB—Cooperative Institute for E-mail: [email protected] Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, and School of , DOI: 10.1 175/BAMS-84-12-1741 University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma In final form 21 July 2003 CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Dr. Aondover Tarhule, Department © 2003 American Meteorological Society of Geography, University of Oklahoma, Sarkeys Energy Center, 100

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 05:36 AM UTC tention in recent decades, not only be- cause of the globally unparalleled per- sistence of anomalously low rainfall (Fig. 1), but also because of the ex- tremely low capacity of social and eco- logical systems for coping with such extremes. As a result of this low capac- ity, extreme climate variability, such as , is frequently accompanied by ecological decline, decimation of live- stock herds, widespread food scarcity, migrations, and great loss of hu- man life. For example, as many as FIG. I. Time series (1941-2001) of avg normalized Apr-Oct rainfall 250,000 people, along with 12 million departure (d) for 20 stations in the West African Soudano-Sahel zone cattle, are estimated to have died from (I I°-I8°N) west of I0°E. Renormalized and updated from earlier ver- starvation during the 1968-73 sions in Lamb (1978, 1982, 1985) and Lamb and Peppier (1991, 1992), Soudano-Sahelian drought (Fig. 1; where further details can be found. Borton and Clay 1986; Glantz 1994, p. 36). In the early to mid-1980s, of the numerous social, political, and economic ob- drought again imperiled millions of Africans (Fig. 1), stacles ... (that would permit)... for example ... the creating famine and refugee crises throughout much control of watering points, the establishment of range of the continent, including the Soudano-Sahel zone. reserves, the determination of an optimal carrying Beyond the humanitarian disaster, economic losses capacity, the development of an adequate market in- totaled several hundred million U.S. dollars, greatly frastructure and the like" (p. 157). disrupting the fragile economies of the affected young Twenty-five years later, we felt the time was op- countries (Benson and Clay 1998). portune to revisit the issues of seasonal forecasting and The capacity for dealing with drought and other its underpinning climate research for the people of climate variations principally depends on the extent West Africa. The effort reported here was encouraged to which (i) the problem is understood, (ii) such by a wide range of important developments during knowledge is accessible to potential victims and policy the intervening quarter century—the striking persis- makers, and (iii) society and vulnerable groups have tence of poor Sahelian rainy (Fig. 1); consid- the ability to put that understanding into practice erable research into the characteristics, causes, pre- (Van Apeldoorn 1981). To date, research on dictability, and impacts of Sahelian drought and Soudano-Sahel climate variability has largely empha- rainfall variability; the strong evolution of most na- sized requirement (i) above, that is, the physical causes tional structures in West Africa toward democracy of climate variability and dimensions of its direct so- and economic liberalization; the establishment and cietal impacts. The considerable research and moni- maturation of West African institutions with regional toring in response to the 1968-73 drought has gen- responsibilities for climate monitoring and impact erated much information on the dynamics and assessment and mitigation; emergence of a well- social-ecological impacts of Soudano-Sahel drought defined international procedure for the annual prepa- (e.g., Charney 1975; Lamb 1978; Folland et al. 1986; ration, dissemination, and verification of research- Nicholson and Entekhabi 1986; Lamb and Peppier based seasonal rainfall forecasts for West Africa; and 1991, 1992; Hulme 1992; Hulme et al. 1992a; Eltahir the ever-improving electronic technology available to and Gong 1996; Darkoh 1998; Zeng et al. 1999; communicate climate research information and sea- Nicholson 2000). sonal forecasts. We elaborate on these motivations in In contrast, and despite the challenge offered by the next two sections, before presenting and discuss- Glantz's (1977) optimistic preliminary assessment, ing our new results. there has been relatively little systematic evaluation of how, or even if, the results of the research are uti- CLIMATE INFORMATION AND DECISION- lized by communities and activities at risk, that is, MAKING CONTEXT. Climate variability in the requirements (ii) and (iii) above. Such evaluation is Soudano-Sahel savanna zone (approximately 10°- useful for two reasons. First, it cannot be assumed that 18°N) of Africa has attracted much international at- research designed by climate scientists automatically

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 05:36 AM UTC yields results useful for people impacted by climate Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), variability (e.g., Lamb 1981; Stern and Easterling ACMAD, and AGRHYMET. The initial annual re- 1999). Second, there is a need to establish the path- sult of this collaboration is the issuance in May or ways through which information on climate variabil- early June of a seasonal forecast map for sub-Saharan ity, such as potentially beneficial climate research West Africa (expressed in tercile for findings and seasonal forecasts based on such findings, subregions; see online at www.acmad.ne/uk/) by the reaches vulnerable groups. A decade ago, an assessment West African Climate Outlook Forum. Next, each of this situation by Hulme et. al (1992b) still yielded NMHS uses this forecast map as guidance to develop a pessimistic outlook for West Africa. More recently, and present forecast information relevant to its coun- the Climate Forecasting for Agricultural Resources try to some form of a national Multidisciplinary Fore- (C FAR) project has begun addressing some of these is- cast Monitoring Group (MFMG). The MFMG com- sues by considering incentives and constraints to imple- position varies somewhat between countries, but menting seasonal forecasts in one Soudano-Sahelian generally consists of representatives of various gov- nation, Burkina Faso (e.g., Kirshen and Flitcroft 2000; ernment agencies (e.g., Ministries of Agriculture, Roncoli et al. 2001, 2002; Ingram et al. 2002). Resources, Public Health, Environment), in- This pathway issue is especially timely because re- ternational organizations (e.g., FEWS), research in- cent advances concerning the dynamics of African stitutes [e.g., International Agriculture Organization climate variability, including its linkages with the rest (IAO), International Crop Research Institute for the of the global climate system, have improved signifi- Semi-Arid (ICRISAT)], and organizations cantly the prospects for medium-range to seasonal [including CILSS and nongovernmental organiza- /climate forecasting (i.e., for 1 week to sev- tions (NGOs)] concerned with managing climate eral months in advance) for the Soudano-Sahel zone variability and implementing mitigation activities in (e.g., Lamb and Peppier 1991,1992; Eltahir and Gong drought-prone regions. Decisions regarding the na- 1996; Thiaw et al. 1999). Indeed, this expanding tional forecast and courses of action are reached by knowledge base has provided the foundation for the consensus, and the forecast is then released to the annual West African Climate Outlook Forums, which media. These decisions can be modified close to the have issued seasonal rainfall predictions (with 1- start of the July-September rainy season "core," as a 2 month lead times) since 1998 (Regional Climate result of NMHS-ACMAD reassessments of global Outlook Forums Review Organizing Committee anomaly patterns and the re- 2001). Leadership of these forums has been provided sulting forecast, and further MFMG deliberation. by West African organizations, most notably the Field extension workers who are members of the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for MFMG, or in a private capacity (e.g., for a cotton Development (ACMAD; Niamey, Niger) and the cooperative in Burkina Faso; Ingram et al. 2002), carry Centre Regional de Formation et d'Application en the forecast information back to rural areas for dis- Agrometeorologie et Hydrologie Operationelle semination. However, there is no formal dissemina- (AGRHYMET; Niamey, Niger) [operated by Comite tion strategy or follow-up to ensure that the informa- Inter-Etate pour la Lutte contre la Secheresse au Sahel tion actually reaches farmers and herders. Equally, (CILSS) nations], with strong scientific and financial little effort is made to obtain feedback from rural support from several U.S. and European entities. The people on how the forecasts are received, perceived, availability of medium-range to seasonal forecasts is or utilized. The need for such information is motivat- expected to increase as improvements in prediction ing the ongoing development of a new initiative in- accuracy are demonstrated. Additionally, Famine volving the use of "radio and Internet technology for Early Warning Systems (FEWS) established by the communication of weather and climate information Agency for International Development to rural communities for sustainable development in (USAID) also provide assessments of vulnerability to Africa" (known as RANET). The goal of RANET is drought and famine for up to 6 months in advance, to bring NMHS and related information to the village based on consideration of rainfall, vegetation, crop level in Africa by pioneering the use of new commu- yields, and, increasingly, social information (Stern nication technologies (from satellite and Internet re- and Easterling 1999; U.S. Agency for International ception by local radio stations, to FM radio transmis- Development 1999, 2000). sion, to -up radio listening in villages). Once Development and dissemination of climate fore- received in the villages, the information can become cast information for West Africa now involves con- the subject of discussion, which is the basis of local siderable collaboration between the region's National learning systems. RANET is a USAID-funded dem-

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 05:36 AM UTC onstration project, which includes the Soudano-Sahel and pathways of climate information flow, and as- nations of Senegal, Niger, and Chad, along with three sesses the accessibility to such information among nations in eastern and southern Africa. The initial suc- rural inhabitants, planning agencies, and policy mak- cess of RANET for its pilot district (Bankilare, south- ers 30 yr after the zone was first devastated by a western Niger) has been recognized internationally drought that triggered the subsequent global focus on in articles in the Financial Times (19 June 2001, p. 15) extreme regional climate variability (Lamb 2002). and Washington Post (12 August 2001, p. Bl), and by its selection as a finalist in the Stockholm Challenge CLIMATE AND SOCIOECONOMIC BACK- Award 2001 (for innovative, information technology; GROUND. The study area is the semiarid Soudano- Public Services and Democracy section). The kind of Sahel savanna regions of Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, technological innovation that RANET represents needs and Nigeria (Fig. 2). Like the rest of West Africa, the to be matched by scientific innovation that develops new climate of this area is dominated by the annual cycles weather/climate information products that are "tai- of the quasi-permanent subtropical high sys- lored" to local needs and explained clearly for users. tems centered over the Azores (North Atlantic) and This need for improved tailoring and explanation St. Helena (South Atlantic) and the intervening near- of climate information, especially seasonal forecasts, equatorial (Hastenrath 1991,169-173). Atmo- belies the conventional wisdom that the mere avail- spheric circulation around these pressure systems ability of such information will automatically permit spawns the surface wind regimes that affect the study precautionary planning that will reduce damage and area—the dry northeasterly tropical continental (har- losses due to climate variability. The idea that in- mattan) off the Sahara Desert that prevails creased information and forecast skill, by itself, is not for most of the year, and the humid southwesterly a panacea is not new (e.g., Glantz 1977; Lamb 1981), tropical maritime () flow that brings but fortunately is now receiving appropriate attention during April-October with a rainy season "core" in (e.g., De Kadt 1989; Buchanan-Smith et al. 1994; Stern July-September. The intertropical discontinuity and Easterling 1999; Broad and Agrawala 2000; (ITD), a narrow zone of strong contrast that O'Brien et al. 2000). For example, Stern and Easterling separates the two air , migrates meridionally (1999, p. 3) argued "the effectiveness of forecast in- in response to the annual insolation cycle. Only those formation depends strongly on the systems that dis- areas more than approximately 200 km equatorward tribute the information, the channels of distribution, of the ITD receive significant rainfall. As a result, both recipients' modes of understanding and judgment rainy season duration and total annual rainfall dimin- about the information source, and the ways in which ish poleward. All major rainfall indicators—annual the information is presented." total, rainy season onset/cessation dates, intraseasonal Investigation of these crucial issues has been initi- distribution of rain events, lengths of intervening dry ated for parts of East Africa (Ethiopia; Broad and spells—are highly variable. In general, variability in- Agrawala 2000) and southern Africa (Namibia and creases with . For example, in the Sahel sa- Tanzania; O'Brien et al. 2000) but, apart from the vanna (13°-18°N) year-to-year variability of annual aforementioned CFAR project in Burkina Faso totals ranges between 20% and 80% of the long-term (Kirshen and Flitcroft 2000; Ingram et al. 2002), no mean (Hess et al. 1995; Bello 1996). Such high vari- progress has been made for drought-prone West Af- ability complicates the rain-fed agricultural activities rica since Glantz's (1977) statement of the problem. and cattle herding on which a large majority of the Here, it is still unclear (i) what sources of climate in- population depends, making the socioeconomic fab- formation (including forecasts) are available to the ric of the zone highly tenuous. most vulnerable communities, (ii) whether and how In principle, human societies adapt to climate communities access those sources, and (iii) if the com- variability through land-use systems that minimize munities enjoy such access, how they respond to the risk, with agricultural that are closely tuned information. To begin redressing this situation, this to long-term climate conditions, and by crop choices paper evaluates the degree to which rural inhabitants and animal husbandry that harmonize with the en- in four West African Soudano-Sahel nations (Mali, vironment (McCarthy et al. 2001, p. 46). West Af- Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria) are aware of, and uti- rica is no exception. However, recent changes in rain- lize, climate information emanating from drought re- fall variability patterns (including drought frequency search and seasonal forecast development. Based on and duration), and some loss of economic competi- responses to several hundred questionnaires admin- tiveness related to "globalization" (U.N. Conference istered in the region, the study identifies the sources on Trade and Development 1999, p. ii), have com-

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 05:36 AM UTC bined to render traditional West African coping strategies untenable. For example, the post-1968 persistence of rain- fall deficits (Fig. 1) was un- precedented in the twentieth century and likely was fore- shadowed only once during each of the two preceding cen- FIG. 2. Location maps for study area. All four countries studied are shaded turies (Nicholson 1978), so in inset map of Africa (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria); larger map fo- that previous "best practices" cuses on I0°-I5°N zone of those countries, where study was conducted. became ineffective or out of Square symbols locate 13 end-user communities surveyed; four asterisked with the prevailing real- are riparian (the rest are upland, see text) and those underlined are par- ity in many locations. Further, ticipating in ongoing seasonal forecast-use experiments described in text. population growth and in- Stars locate capital cities. Organizations/agencies surveyed were in capital creased economic activity, cities except for Nigeria (Katsina, open circle). Also shown is major urban center nearest Nigerian end-user communities (Kano, open circle). particularly around major cit- ies, have choked time-hon- ored migratory routes of nomadic herdsmen, com- METHODOLOGY. With the goal of increasing pelling them to spend longer periods each year in the this coping ability, the present study evaluates the ac- drier Sahel. This delay increases the vulnerability of cessibility to drought research results and knowledge the livestock because seasonal out-migration is a of seasonal climate forecasts of Soudano-Sahelian ru- proven (and frequently the only) feasible response to ral dwellers and policy makers. The basic research tool prolonged or drought conditions. Further, used was a field survey conducted in West Africa diminished streamflow resulting from decreased during October-December 2001, involving adminis- rainfall increases the pressure for upstream im- tration of separate questionnaires to (i) rural commu- poundments and abstractions, which, in turn, nities of potential end users of such information and threaten the viability of downstream supplementary (ii) government organizations and other intermedi- irrigation activities (Carter 1995). ary groups responsible for or concerned with man- Parallel with and partly related to this climate de- aging the effects of climate variability. The question- terioration, increased external debt burdens and de- naire designs reflected the first author's lifelong clining trade balances recently have reduced the op- understanding of the Soudan and Sahel. Both ques- tions of the region's governments for dealing with tionnaires are available online at the Cooperative In- climate variability, even if the political will to act ex- stitute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies isted (U.N. Conference on Trade and Development (CIMMS) Web site (see www.cimms.ou.edu/papers/ 1999, 6-7). For instance, between 1985 and 1997 the tarhulejamb.html). For the community survey, a to- ratio of national debt to gross domestic product tal of 566 questionnaires were successfully adminis- (GDP) increased from 38% to 70% in Burkina Faso, tered (orally) in local languages to 13 communities in and from 86% to 104% in Niger (U.N. Conference on the Soudano and Sahelian savanna regions of Mali, Trade and Development 1999, 204-205). Given such Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria (see survey sum- economic deterioration, climate and environmental mary in Table 1). The communities are located in Fig. issues were relegated to the background despite be- 2. The second questionnaire was completed (in writ- ing part of the problem. The effects of this diminish- ing) by 26 organizations in Mali (4), Niger (18), and ing ability to cope with climate variability can be Nigeria (4), using French (Mali, Niger) and English strongly self-perpetuating, both at individual and so- (Nigeria). cietal levels. For example, rural-to-urban population drift that results from food scarcity in the countryside RESULTS FOR END-USER COMMUNITIES. further undermines the food security of the region, To provide a regionwide perspective, most results because the people who should be producing food in presented below are for the study area as a whole. rural areas tend to remain in urban areas and search However, between-country differences are identified for food there! Clearly, there is a need to improve the for several questions to give insight into important re- ability of West Africa, as a whole, to cope with climate gional variations. variability.

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 05:36 AM UTC TABLE 1. Levels of awareness of climate research and seasonal forecasts for Soudano-Sahel region by study communities. Survey sites marked with asterisks are participating in climate forecast-use experiments described in the text. Note that 16 out of the 566 participants (3%) did not respond to these questions.

Survey site Read any article Awareness of seasonal (Language) Country on climate research? forecasts?

Yes No Yes No

Koria 0 (0%) 29 (100%) 2 (7%) 27 (93%) (Fulani, Gourmanche) Ouru Burkina 9 (15%) 50 (85%) 35 (59%) 24 (41%) (Mossi) Faso Roba* 0 (0%) 42 (100%) 19 (45%) 23 (55%) (Mossi)

Bancoumana 0 (0%) 49 (100%) 27 (55%) 22 (45%) (Bambara) Keya Koulikoro* Mali 0 (0%) 54 (100%) 44 (81%) 10 (19%) (Bambara) Oullessebougou* 0 (0%) 57 (100%) 51 (89%) 6 (1 1%) (Bambara)

Chikal 3 (5%) 58 (95%) 0 (0%) 61 (100%) (Hausa) Kore Mairoua 1 (1%) 66 (99%) 0 (0%) 67 (100%) (Hausa, Djerma) Niger Sakouara 0 (0%) 23 (100%) 4 (17%) 19 (83%) (Songhai)

Bakuro 0 (0%) 24 (100%) 0 (0%) 24 (100%) (Hausa) Kabukawa Nigeria 0 (0%) 23 (100%) 0 (0%) 23 (100%) (Hausa) Katarko 0 (0%) 30 (100%) 0 (0%) 30 (100%) (Hausa) Maisandari 0 (0%) 32 (100%) 0 (0%) 32 (100%) (Hausa)

Totals 13 537 182 368 (2%) (98%) (33%) (67%)

Personal information. The responses confirmed that vulnerable to drought and rainfall variability, reflect- farming and livestock herding are the major ing the high proportion of respondents engaged in agroeconomic activities (Fig. 3a), and that their prac- rain-fed agriculture. A further 8% judged their activi- titioners have very low levels of educational attain- ties as somewhat vulnerable. Interestingly, even re- ment (Fig. 3b) and (especially in francophone coun- spondents not engaged in primary production (e.g., tries) tend to belong to community cooperative civil servants) expressed serious concerns about associations (Fig. 3c). See Sidebar for further details. drought, reflecting the fact that drought impacts are not limited to farmers and herders (e.g., Benson and Drought perception. In general, respondents are acutely Clay 1998). aware of the risk posed by climate variability; 90% of Respondents were asked to identify the years of the respondents perceive their activities as being entirely last drought they experienced and the most severe or

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 05:36 AM UTC FIG. 3. Profiles of end-user respondents' (a) major occupation, (b) educational attainment, and (c) membership of cooperative associations. devastating drought in memory. Results summarized in Figs. 4b and 4c reveal that respondents' percep- tion of drought occurrence and se- verity agree reasonably well with re- ality; for example, they identified 1968,1973,1983/84, and 2000 as the "most devastating" drought years, all of which were from moderately to extremely dry in the study region (Fig. 4a) and across the entire Soudan and Sahel region (Fig. 1). Clearly, the catastrophes of 1968-73 and the early-to-mid-1980s are per- manently etched in the oral drought lore of the study region; Roncoli et al.

FIG. 4. Drought awareness among end-user respondents compared to statistically calculated rainfall defi- cits for 1960-2000: (a) the ob- served rainfall deficit computed for the 12 stations contributing to Fig. I that lie in present study re- gion, (b) the identification fre- quency of the single-most recent drought year that respondents could recall, and (c) the identifica- tion frequency of the single-most severe drought year that respon- dents could recall.

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 05:36 AM UTC For the study area as a whole, 64% further to receive some post- satellite/lnternet/radio technology of respondents were full-time secondary education. The most can make for communication of farmers, 18% were full-time striking regional difference weather and climate information livestock herders, and a further involved primary/Quaranic school to rural communities for sustain- 14% pursued both those occupa- attendance—62% in Niger, able development in Africa tions (Fig. 3a). The proportion of followed by 55% in Burkina Faso, (RANET). This will bring climate full-time farmers was similar 53% in Nigeria, and 39% in Mali. information more directly to the across the region, ranging from Because of this general lack of ears (if not the eyes) of the 62% (Nigeria) to 71% (Burkina education, the majority of the region's rural dwellers. Faso). Niger and Burkina Faso had people rely on second- or even Slightly more than one-half of the highest proportion of full-time third-hand sources for information respondents belong to a commu- livestock herders (21% each), on climate variability and, there- nity cooperative association followed by Burkina Faso (18%) fore, are dependent on transla- (Fig. 3c). The popularity of these and Nigeria (12%). Among tions and interpretations of cooperative associations, particu- farmers (full or part time), 86% intermediaries. In fact, only 2% of larly in the francophone coun- practice rain-fed agriculture, 12% respondents (all from the same tries, is the direct result of combined rain-fed and river- community) are aware of, or have policies of nongovernmental irrigated agriculture, and only 2% read directly, any published organizations (NGOs) to provide rely entirely on river-irrigated material on climate variability or services to associations rather agriculture (not shown). Note that drought research (Table I). As than individuals. In Nigeria, where four riparian-dwelling communi- noted by Cleaver (1993), such a NGOs are relatively less visible, at ties (one in each country) deliber- poorly educated labor force least in the study region, mem- ately were included in the survey, generally lacks ability to introduce bership of such associations is compared to 9 "upland" or or adapt innovative farming much smaller (23%). Respondents interfluvial communities. Figure 2 techniques. For our study region, not belonging to these associa- distinguishes between the two this education deficiency deserves tions frequently cited corruption groups. special attention in the develop- by their officials, or the absence of In terms of educational attain- ment and assessment of new an association, as reasons. The ment (Fig. 3b), 63% of respon- alternative coping strategies to high number and frequent dents from all countries had no complement traditional local membership of community formal education, 34% attended knowledge. This finding reinforces cooperative associations in primary or Quaranic school to the need to identify the pathways francophone countries could be some point, and only 3% had through which information filters an important means of dissemi- advanced to at least middle down to end-user groups and to nating seasonal climate forecasts schools. A mere 1% had com- ensure interpretation accuracy at and information on drought pleted secondary school to British the intermediate steps. Thus, it research to a wider audience. "A level" equivalent, or advanced underscores the contribution

(2001) reported a similar finding for a village in central lection of the isolated very severe 1977 drought year by Burkina Faso. This is particularly interesting in the case Soudano-Sahelians matches its contemporary nonde- of 1968, which, relative to subsequent years, was not an tection by the scientific community (Lamb 1982). extreme drought year—the well-documented 1968 dev- Two additional points can be made concerning astation presumably resulted from contemporary un- Fig. 4. First, although below-average rainfall occurred familiarity with such a rainfall deficit (Figs. 1,4a) and a in 2000, some "very recent memory effect" may have consequent total absence of coping strategies. Note also contributed to respondents regarding 2000 as a "dev- that 1973 is much better remembered as a devastating astating" drought year. Note that this description drought year than the considerably drier 1972 would have been more applicable to 2001 (Fig. 1) and (Figs. 4a,c), presumably because cumulative effects of that the questionnaire survey was administered im- these back-to-back disasters occurred in the second mediately following that very poor rainy season. year. However, remembrance of the 1983/84 severe Alternatively, the respondents' perception of the rain- drought couplet was opposite (Figs. 4a,c), perhaps re- fall deficit in 2000 might indicate that the total annual flecting improved adaptation to a large initial rainfall rainfall is not a perfect measure of drought impact, deficit conditioned by the experience of many poor because rainfall during critical periods of the agricul- rainy seasons during the preceding 15 yr. The nonrecol- tural could seriously affect productivity even

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 05:36 AM UTC if the total annual rainfall is above average. Second, respondents identified the entire 1990s with "drought," which underscores the general perception among inhabitants that the Soudano-Sahel drought has not ended yet, but ultimately will end. Although not contradicted by Figs. 1 and 4a, this "drought per- sistence" view runs counter to analyses of Demaare (1990) and Tarhule and Woo (1998), who suggested that West African rainfall time series can be repre- sented as two quasi-stationary time series separated by an abrupt shift in the mean around 1968 (e.g., Fig. 1). Thus, the people of central West Africa ap- parently have not accepted that the new diminished rainfall regime initiated by the 1968-73 severe drought pulse may have become normal for the re- gion, at least for the foreseeable future. This situation may illustrate the "eternal dispute" in perception be- tween "what is" and "what ought to be," or the incli- nation to ignore "what is" in contemplation of uwhat should be" (Glantz 1977, p. 153). Certainly, Figs. 1 and 4a fail to offer the prospect of any immediate and long-term return to the moderately humid conditions of 1959-67, let alone the rainfall abundance of the earlier 1950s. FIG. 5. End-user access to drought information: (a) rela- tive frequency of access to various agencies by respon- Types and sources of information. Climate variability, dents seeking expert general climate information, (b) desertification, soil erosion, and loss of soil fertility are principal sources of routine drought status information, the major environmental issues of concern to respon- and (c) principal sources of specific information on dents. General climate variability issues include the warning signs and indicators of imminent or ongoing expected onset and termination dates of the rainy sea- drought. Respondents were required to identify their son, comparison of season-to-date rainfall conditions single-most important information source in each case. with historical norms and extremes, and whether a prolonged dry spell during the rainy season heralds nature and scope of their activities depend on fund- or signifies a drought. NGOs currently outpace gov- ing, which is frequently unpredictable, raising the is- ernment agencies by a margin of 2:1 as the major sue of continuity and sustainability. Nevertheless, at source of information on these general issues (Fig. 5a). the present time and conceivably in the future, NGOs This finding is not surprising for several reasons and are major stakeholders and sources of climate and en- has important implications. By virtue of their mission, vironmental information for rural inhabitants of cen- NGOs tend to closely with grassroots popula- tral West Africa. tions in rural areas. Their role in providing basic ser- A significant number of respondents (around vices to rural communities has become increasingly 30%) do not use outside sources of information to deal essential in recent years as government services have with climate variability (Fig. 5a), but instead still rely atrophied. This greater of NGOs in rural ar- entirely on their experience and intuition. Some of the eas, relative to government agencies, likely explains weather variables utilized in this traditional approach their status as the preeminent current source of cli- are and strength (including of the mate information and may imply they could assume northeasterly off the Sahara during the a larger future role. However, while utilizing the ex- preceding dry season), cover, color (indica- isting network of NGOs scattered throughout the re- tive of atmospheric loading and wind condi- gion may (at least in the short term) minimize the tions), and temperature. However, a number of these need for new elaborate information dissemination indicators used by rural dwellers are broadly consis- systems, most NGOs are ill-equipped in terms of per- tent with predictors employed in more "scientific" sonnel and expertise to increase their activities in this forecasts (e.g., Pepin 1996; International Research area. Additionally, many NGOs are transient and the Institute for Climate Prediction 2000; Roncoli et al.

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 05:36 AM UTC equal with government agencies and NGOs for more routine drought status information (Fig. 5b), prin- cipally areas affected, and is the main source of spe- cific warning information on imminent or ongoing rainfall deficits (Fig. 5c).1 This result is consistent with studies in southern Africa that found radio to be the most widely used means of communicating seasonal climate forecasts into rural areas (Interna- tional Research Institute for Climate Prediction 2000). Figure 5c also reveals that while nearly 20% of respondents rely on their past experience to alert them of impending drought around their villages (e.g., from atmospheric dust and cloud scarcity), the vast majority logically feel they need "external" sources for drought status information for areas fur- ther removed. However, another 20% of respondents pay no attention to warning signs, preparing instead to trust in God or luck (Fig. 5c).

Drought preparedness. O'Keefe and Wisner (1975) observed that, with any disaster, the magnitude of damage or loss incurred is a function of the society's level of preparedness. It is, therefore, beneficial to as- sess the extent to which scientific information is uti- lized in precautionary planning.2 For the study communities during the past 5 yr, 60% of respondents received no information on how to prepare for drought, or what to do during and af- ter a drought. Whereas the respondents are fully aware of the risks posed by climate variability, most lack information on even the most rudimentary issue of where to seek helpful information. As one farmer in Katarko (Nigeria) commented, ". . . of course I know it (drought) is a problem, but where can I get help from?" On the other hand, 30% of respondents received some information during the same period, mostly through NGO or bilateral projects. The most common recommendations included soil moisture conservation practices, forestry management, and FIG. 6. End-user respondents' relative willingness to procedures for securing financing. However, only 8% change current agricultural practices based on emerg- ing research findings and climate information. actually implemented the recommendations received. The prevailing view among those that failed to act on recommended strategies was that some suggestions, 2002). A detailed analysis of "local" versus "scientific" particularly borrowing money from banks, were nei- forecasting issues has been performed for one village ther suitable for their situation nor executable. The in central Burkina Faso by Roncoli et al. (2002). The picture that emerges, therefore, is that, despite signifi- reason most frequently cited by respondents for not cant climate and environmental change, the major- seeking information from outside sources is lack of ity (nearly two-thirds) of respondents continue to knowledge about where to go for such help. practice traditional methods of agriculture, to not Somewhat surprisingly, Fig 5a shows that the me- benefit from climate research and its resulting sea- dia ranks fourth as a source of general information sonal forecasts, and to await passively the seasonal for dealing with climate variability. However, the climate that nature delivers, with all the uncertainty media (especially national and rural radio) ranks this portends.

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 05:36 AM UTC However, Fig. 6 suggests TABLE 2. Disaggregation by country and quantification of results in that most respondents Fig. 6. Qualitative responses in Fig. 6 were converted into numbers would be receptive to new using the following scale: strongly agree (+1), agree (+0.5), not sure agricultural practices that (0), disagree (-0.5), strongly disagree (-1). Results below are averages could improve their ability of these numerical values by country and "willingness to change" to cope with climate vari- criterion. ability. Regionwide, more Burkina than two-thirds strongly Mali Faso Niger Nigeria agree or agree on the need to modify grazing habits, Number of respondents 171 195 107 93 reduce herd sizes, change Change planting time +0.80 +0.06 +0.07 -0.22 types of crops grown, and alter cropping times. Table 2 Change crop types +0.87 +0.34 +0.16 +0.09 uses a numerical scale to Change grazing methods +0.83 +0.19 +0.09 0.00 disaggregate by country the Reduce herd sizes +0.47 +0.28 +0.15 -0.33 qualitative regional results in Fig. 6. The most striking Relocate +0.35 +0.10 +0.26 -0.31 result in Table 2 is the high willingness of the Mali re- spondents to alter their cropping and grazing prac- except for Nigeria, this local end-user receptiveness, tices based on new climate information. This flexibil- thus, is largely consistent with Glantz's (1977) "prelimi- ity may reflect the prior experience and involvement nary assessment" of more than a quarter century ago, of a majority of Mali respondents in climate forecast quoted at the outset. and agricultural research experiments. In contrast, re- The relatively high fraction of respondents (60%) spondents from Nigeria were much less inclined to who are willing to relocate entirely to new areas also change current agricultural practices. We interpret is revealing (Fig. 6, Table 2). However, such readiness this reluctance to change to mean either that Nige- to relocate already is contributing to another prob- rian farmers have some faith in their ability to make lem discussed above—large-scale out-migration of existing systems work, or that they lack information food producers from rural areas and rapid population about viable alternative practices. The results for growth rates of major urban centers throughout semi- Burkina Faso and Niger in Table 2 lie between the ex- arid West Africa. Cities such as Niamey, Bamako, and tremes of Mali and Nigeria; they are statistically simi- Ouagadougou (Fig. 2) are presently experiencing lar (t test assuming unequal variance at 0.05% signifi- growth rates of 9%-l 1% compared to national popu- cance level) and tend toward "agree" or "not sure" lation growth rates of 2.7%-3.2% (U.N. Conference (Fig. 6), concerning willingness to change. Interestingly, on Trade and Development 1999, p. 177).3

1 This seeming paradox could be explained by three main factors. First, media reports of at other locations alert respondents to the risk for their own communities, even when no forecasts are issued for their villages. Second, at the beginning of the long, dry season (October-November), many able-bodied young men throughout the Soudan and Sahel leave their villages for urban areas in that zone or the humid West African littoral states. Around the middle of the next year, these seasonal migrants depend on radio to inform them when have returned to their villages, and schedule their own return accordingly. Third, this result may reflect the news media's tendency to focus on extreme climate phenomena that are considered sensational and, therefore, newsworthy. 2 As defined in the questionnaire, drought preparation includes adopting or implementing a range of techniques designed to mini- mize exposure to drought, and to ensure survival during and after the drought. Such preparedness might include adopting new farming/seeding techniques, vegetation conservation, altering planting times, constructing food storage systems for humans and livestock, implementing new methods of water sourcing/exploitation/conservation, adjusting herding and grazing practices, and sourcing of financial support. Research on these issues has been initiated for drought and environmental dynamics in the Sahel (e.g., Benson and Clay 1998), including that by the CFAR project for Burkina Faso (e.g., Roncoli et al. 2001; Ingram et al. 2002). 3 A complex set of factors (beyond the scope of the present paper) account for the preponderance of rural-to-urban migration over rural-to-rural migration. However, one ingredient certainly is the archaic land tenure system that denies access to land by those perceived as "outsiders" or "nonindigenes" (Foley et al. 1997,14-15) and so precludes migrants from beginning new lives in other rural areas. This situation further underlines the continued existence of "social, political, and economic obstacles" to West Africa benefiting from technological advance noted by Glantz (1977).

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 05:36 AM UTC Climate and environmental stresses, thus, are help- and the Sahel Six Club in Burkina Faso. Exclusion of ing to sever the traditional, even reverential, attach- these communities raises the proportion of respon- ment to ancestral land for which many African soci- dents who are unaware of climate forecasts to 80%. eties are noted. Taken together, these results suggest This level of ignorance is surprisingly high, especially that the difficulties of coping with climate variability given the proximity and accessibility of most study stem principally from a lack of awareness of feasible sites to large urban centers (Fig. 2). It suggests that alternatives rather than a blind adherence to tradi- even higher unfamiliarity levels prevail in more re- tional practices. The situation reflects two impedi- mote or inaccessible locations. While climate forecasts ments already noted—the general lack of adaptabil- admittedly are new (e.g., only for last 5 yr from West ity and innovation among the poorly educated rural African Climate Outlook Forums) and still experimen- labor force and the inability of the weakened state ma- tal in West Africa, these results nevertheless underscore chinery to stimulate and coordinate agricultural the fact that a large proportion of vulnerable groups change. continue to cope blindly with climate variability. Scattered within the considerable volume of pub- Figure 7 presents respondents' perceptions of six lished research on African climate variability are climate forecast characteristics—reliability, timeli- practical recommendations for dealing with various ness, lead time, resolution, format, user-friendliness— aspects of the problem (e.g., Buchanan-Smith et al. based only on the above three communities where 1994; Benson and Clay 1998; Thiaw et al. 1999). most people have had access to climate forecasts. Be- However, nearly 100% of respondents have not di- tween 70% and 85% of respondents assessed each rectly read any published material on climate vari- forecast characteristic as satisfactory or excellent. Such ability (Table 1). This result is not surprising given favorable judgment may reflect the novelty of the the low levels of literacy previously discussed. For- concept or the innovative approach adopted by the tunately, knowledge of this situation is stimulating Mali DMN, in particular, to promote forecast use. ideas for new methods of information delivery, which Rather than attempting to persuade farmers of fore- generally originate in experimental or demonstration cast benefits, the DMN encouraged farmers to divide projects carried out by NGOs, government extension their plots into two sections. In these "self-demonstra- workers, and organizations such as CILSS and tion experiments," one section was planted and cul- ICRISAT. The latest example is the USAID-funded tivated using climate forecast information, while on RANET project mentioned above. Clearly, for the the other plot agricultural practices were based on tra- most vulnerable groups in West Af- rica to benefit increasingly from the results of drought research, there must be sustained efforts to further develop structures and mechanisms for collecting, translating, and dis- seminating potentially beneficial re- search findings.

Seasonal climate forecasts. Fifty-seven percent of respondents are unaware of seasonal climate forecasts for West Africa, compared to 43% who know of or have received climate forecasts (Table 1). However, the question- naire responses from three commu- nities (especially Feya Koulikoro and Ouelesebougou, Mali; also Roba, Burkina Faso; see Fig. 2) caused sig- nificant bias in the results. These communities are participating in cli- mate forecast use experiments being FIG. 7. Relative perceptions of characteristics of current seasonal fore- conducted by the Mali Direction de casts by end users in Feya Koulikoro and Ouellessebougou (Mali), and le Meteorologie Nationale (DMN) Roba (Burkina Faso). See text for further information.

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 05:36 AM UTC ditional schedules or other criteria of farmers' choos- casting communities and end users of their informa- ing (Mama Konate 2001, personal communication). tion products. These organizations included NGOs, The DMN believes farming strategies that incorpo- research institutes, international projects, and govern- rated climate forecast information for 5 yr improved ment ministries. Henceforth, collectively they are yields by 20%-25% over those that did not. Such prac- termed "organizations" or "agencies." tical gains have helped win the confidence of rural communities. However, these claims require more Information communication I focus with end-users. The rigorous and widespread investigation and testing, organizations and end-user groups communicate pri- particularly given the less supportive findings of the marily through field extension workers, seminars, and CFAR project concerning the utility of the Prevision demonstration projects (Fig. 8). The media ranks low Saisonniere en Afrique de l'Ouest (PRESAO)-based (fourth) as a means of supplying information to user forecasts more generally in Burkina Faso. Those fore- groups, which supports a similar finding in the pre- casts are considered by many Burkinabe to have an vious section. Although only about 2.5% of cultivable unfriendly format (terciles, maps), lead times that are land in Africa traditionally has been irrigated (Moris too short, overly coarse and confusing resolutions, 1987), survey results revealed it is the activity for and a lack of information on early rains and the cru- which people most frequently seek information and cial rainy season (proper) onset and dry spells (e.g., expert advice. Irrigation is relatively recent in West Kirshen and Flitcroft 2000; Ingram et al. 2002). Africa and is still expanding in many areas4. Finally, for all 13 study communities as a whole, 90% of respondents said they would "definitely" use Access to and utilization of drought research and climate climate forecast information if it were available to forecasts. The survey results also reveal that the above them. One respondent in Dori (Burkina Faso) declared information communication with end users is handi- simply "... we will try anything!," betraying the des- capped by poor utilization of drought research infor- perate need for new information and alternative cop- mation by intermediary organizations within the ing procedures in rural areas of central West Africa. region (Table 3). During the past 10 yr, 64% of re- sponding organizations did not utilize any recent

RESULTS FOR INTERMEDIARY ORGANI- findings or recommendations on climate variability

ZATIONS. As noted above, questionnaire responses in the study region; 62% of responding organizations were received from 26 organizations that could serve do not consider their understanding of drought to as intermediaries between the climate research/fore- have improved during the same period; and 82% have

4 During the last two decades, small-scale irrigation was widely promoted as a viable alternative to large-scale mechanized irrigated agriculture, which, by the late 1980s, generally was considered to have failed (Kimmage 1991; Adams 1991). Small-scale irriga- tion supports essential market garden produce that feeds burgeoning urban populations, and, thus, helps offset the food produc- tion implications of rural-to-urban drift mentioned above. This irrigation utilizes water in shallow alluvial aquifers under the - plains of seasonal rivers termed "bas fond" in the francophone countries and "fadama" in northern Nigeria. Recharge of these aquifers depends on the magnitude and duration of floodwaters. Our survey results highlight the increased interest in shallow alluvial acquifers for irrigated agriculture. Carter (1995) pointed out that such increased anthropogenic demand, combined with climate variability, already is undermining the sustainability of these aquifers.

TABLE 3. Evaluation and utilization of climate research results by organizations/agencies with responsibilities for managing climate-related problems in the Soudano-Sahel zone. Note that not all of the 26 organizations/agencies surveyed answered these questions.

Number of Activity during the past 10 yr respondents Yes No

Implemented or utilized recommendations based on research results? 14 5 (36%) 9 (64%)

Found research results that are potentially beneficial to user groups? 1 1 2 (18%) 9 (82%)

Found research results that advanced understanding of drought? 13 5 (38%) 8 (62%)

Totals 38 12 (32%) 26 (68%)

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 05:36 AM UTC pelled to conduct in-house studies or engage consult- ants to generate primary information necessary for their projects. Resulting reports frequently contain valuable data, but, because the distribution list is usu- ally restricted, the information tends to be underutilized or perhaps not further utilized at all. Also, some small NGOs in particular indicated they did not possess the resources or expertise to embark on such data collection and information acquisition, or they felt the life spans of their projects were too short to warrant initiation of these activities. It follows from results above that NGOs must have access to re- FIG. 8. Principal modes of communication used by or- liable climate and environmental information, because ganizations/agencies to transfer information to end- of the large number of people that depend on them for user groups. Respondents were permitted to specify up such information. to three communication modes; hence, frequencies do not sum to unity. An alternative to creating a new organization to perform the above role is for ACMAD and/or AGRHYMET to assume this responsibility as part of not found any published results that are beneficial to their maturation process. Obviously, this would re- their user groups. However, the questionnaire re- quire approval and encouragement from these orga- sponses revealed that a few statistical indices obtained nizations' parent bodies (U.N. Economic Commission from published documents (e.g., long-term mean and for Africa and World Meteorological Organization, coefficient of variation of annual rainfall) are utilized for ACMAD; CILSS, for AGRHYMET), and the pro- by about 40% of organizations responding to the sur- vision of additional resources. However, ACMAD vey. Other researchers (Todorov 1985; Tarhule and already has begun performing a similar function for Tarhule-Lips 2001) previously commented on the the seasonal forecasts generated by the West African widespread use of simple statistical indicators for agri- Climate Outlook Forums of the last 5 yr. For example, cultural and water resource planning in West Africa. 14 of the 26 organizations surveyed either have re- These results need to be interpreted with caution. ceived (12) seasonal forecasts from ACMAD or a In a review of the utilization of climate forecasts by NMHS, or are aware of their availability from those organizations, Stern and Easterling (1999) concluded institutions (2). Unfortunately, only two organiza- that many potential beneficiary organizations have tions commented on the utility of the forecasts, per- not established routines or responsibilities for acquir- haps owing to the short (5-yr) period for which the ing and processing emerging information. A second forecasts have been issued for West Africa. Signifi- possible interpretation is that the finding is an indict- cantly, however, all organizations expressed interest ment of the climate research effort for the Soudano- in and willingness to use seasonal climate forecasts Sahel region; that is, the research may not have yielded once they become more accessible. information that is relevant and readily applicable. However, there has been no serious evaluation of Proposed structure of information flow. Figure 9 extends Sahel climate research in that context. Regardless, the the above discussion by presenting a conceptual results point to a need to improve the linkage, through model of information flow that draws on climate re- intermediary organizations, of the research commu- search and seasonal forecast information. The model nity with end users. One possible strategy is to create seeks to fill a void that results from the absence of a for- an organization with the responsibility to evaluate, mal climate information system in West Africa and the classify, and archive emerging research findings that weakness and informality of the existing links among could benefit the West African Sudano-Sahel region. the disparate units that produce climate information. A centerpiece of this organization would be the cre- The major features of the model are the following: ation and maintenance of an interactive ("living") re- pository of the environmental information needed for 1) Archiving and database development for all re- policy makers and other users to exploit research re- search related to West African climate variability. sults. This would reduce duplication of the effort in Researchers, policy makers, NGOs, and funding obtaining primary data. For example, 40% of the or- agencies could access and query the database to ganizations surveyed indicated that they now are com- develop new programs that build upon, or con-

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 05:36 AM UTC tribute to, established knowledge, rather than duplicating previous efforts. The media and other organizations also could utilize the database to de- velop educational programs. 2) Testing, validation, and adaptation of research findings for practical application under local con- ditions. This activity is necessary because research results seldom are applicable immediately. Envi- ronmental and social conditions prevalent when the research was conducted may change even be- fore the results become available. Also, much po- tentially useful research could have been based on assumptions, data, or environmental factors that FIG. 9. Conceptual model of climate research and sea- are significantly different from those found in sonal forecast information dissemination for West Af- West Africa. These issues necessitate validation rica. The extreme right-hand column is based on infor- and adaptation to the specific context of West mation dissemination ideas developed at ACMAD as Africa during the time between the completion of part of the RANET project. the research and availability of its products. All relevant intellectual property and copyright laws to all research dealing with West African climate vari- must be recognized. ability. The model in Fig. 9 also provides greater de- 3) Dissemination through NMHSs of climate forecasts tail on the interactions that must occur between lo- produced by West African Climate Outlook Fo- cal groups for effective dissemination of and response rums and other activities/organizations. This to climate research and forecasting information across would use the best available technology. In the Soudano-Sahelian West Africa. near future, this could involve use of the satellite

uplink at ACMAD to reach receiving stations (in- SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS. Availability cluding specially equipped extension offices) of climate information is a prerequisite for mitigat- across West Africa each hour, permitting the me- ing the adverse impacts of climate variability, and dia and end users to access forecast information capitalizing on beneficial effects, especially in West "on demand." The extension offices would then ex- Africa where the livelihoods and even lives of most tract the forecast information relevant to their people depend on natural climate and environmen- specific audiences/regions and pass it on in local tal dynamics. A number of definitive and important languages to rural radio stations for transmission. findings emerged from this study. 4) Users actively participate in the information gen- Most fundamentally, rural inhabitants are acutely eration and dissemination process. They respond aware of the risk posed by climate variability, as well to the enhanced information flow by contribut- as the limitations of their traditional coping strategies. ing new information to the system from their Improving access to climate information is an impor- unique perspectives, as well as providing feedback tant first step but, by itself, will not improve the lives to producers of other information to improve its of Soudano-Sahelians (e.g., Stern and Easterling 1999; content, format, and overall effectiveness. O'Brien et al. 2000). Complementary efforts must be made to ensure that end users understand the infor- The model in Fig. 9 is broadly consistent with the mation and can modify their actions accordingly. generalized vision for climate prediction use in Africa While people rely heavily on radio for information on by 2010 offered by the Regional Climate Outlook drought imminence, radio plays a surprisingly minor Forum Review Organizing Committee (RCOFROC; role as a source of general climate and environmen- 2001, 132-135). In particular, Fig. 9 endorses the tal information. This paradox results from both the RCOFROCs recognition of the importance of inter- low level of radio ownership and the inadequacy (or mediary organizations and the need to transition fore- absence) of climate education programming on local cast production and dissemination from international radio networks. Concerning the former problem, the and regional centers to NMHSs. However, Fig. 9 rec- RANET approach of distributing inexpensive wind- ognizes more explicitly than RCOFROC that the fore- up radios to rural inhabitants is an appropriate, even casting effort must be underpinned by substantial necessary strategy. But it must be complemented by im- database development and archiving and ready access proved and increased general education radio pro-

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 05:36 AM UTC gramming on climate and other environmental pro- mistic and, therefore, must be managed with care— cesses as well as providing specific information on cli- unreasonably high expectations could turn to disap- mate extremes. Until literacy levels significantly im- pointment or even mistrust when some forecasts (in- prove, the print media, including newspapers and evitably) prove erroneous. Efforts must be made to published pamphlets, will continue to play negligible ensure that forecast information is correctly inter- roles. preted and that vulnerable groups understand the In many rural areas, NGOs offer the only link to large gulf that exists between "having information" the "outside world." Our results suggest that strate- and having the ability to respond to that information. gies for disseminating climate information in rural Glantz's (1977) clarion call is as relevant today as it areas should take advantage of both the NGOs and was 25 yr ago. their grassroots (cooperative) organizations.

Despite an ongoing multidecadal rainfall deficit ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. The Office of the Vice Presi- that has included a number of very dry years, drought dent for Research at The University of Oklahoma (Dr. T. H. Lee preparedness in the West African Soudano-Sahel re- Williams) funded the administration of the questionnaires in gion is very poor at the levels of both individuals and West Africa and part of the translation and analysis of the re- organizations concerned with managing drought im- sponses. We are very grateful to Dr. Williams for his moral and pacts. Lack of information and options, rather than financial support, and to Dr. Bret Wallach (Chair, Department any reticence or unwillingness to be proactive, ap- of Geography, The University of Oklahoma) for timely advocacy pears to be responsible for this situation. There is and encouragement. Additional funding was provided by clear evidence that inhabitants of West Africa are pre- CIMMS through NOAA Cooperative Agreements NA67J0150 pared to experiment with or adopt new strategies that and NA17RJ1227. We are pleased to acknowledge the involve- enhance their ability to cope with climate variabil- ment of many field assistants throughout the study region, ity. Because variability is integral (endemic?) to the whose proficiency in local languages made this study possible. climate of West Africa, there is a need to develop and Fieldwork was greatly facilitated by the kind cooperation of Dr. implement an ongoing policy of drought preparation Daniel Dabi and Jasper Dung (Nigeria), Zakari Saley-Bana and and management. The multidimensional nature of Issa Mohammadou Lele (Niger), Frederic Ouattara and Didier the problem requires planning and coordination at Ouedraogou (Burkina Faso), and Mama Konate, Birama Diarra, various scales that remain to be achieved fully, de- and Zei Sanongo (Mali). Particularly vital to the success of the spite some improvements in the requisite institu- study was the cooperation of Kaliba Konare (then Director, Di- tional framework and political commitment (e.g., rection de la Meteorologie Nationale, Mali) and Mohammed CILSS and AGRHYMET, ACMAD) urged by Glantz Sadek Boulahya (then Director General, African Centre of Me- (1977) a quarter century ago. Because the state ma- teorological Applications for Development). We thank Issa Lele chinery in many Soudano-Sahalian countries remains Mohammadou and Zakari Saley-Bana for assistance with the quite weak, donors (including outside governments) figures and tables. The paper was improved as a result of help- need to explore strategies for assisting a wide range ful comments on earlier drafts by Stefan Hastenrath, Paul of West African "institutions" in addition to tradi- Kirshen (as a formal reviewer), A. Ben Mohamed, Derek tional government agencies. Recent developments Winstanley, and an anonymous formal reviewer. suggest these institutions should include regional cli-

mate centers (e.g., ACMAD, AGRHYMET) and lo- APPENDIX: QUESTIONNAIRE SURVEYS. cal cooperative organizations along the model pro- The questionnaire for end-user communities included moted by NGOs. four sets of questions designed to establish the follow- There is virtually no direct utilization of results of ing: demographic profiles of respondents, including drought research by vulnerable groups owing to the educational attainment and occupation (section A); low levels of literacy. Nor is there significant indirect respondents' awareness and perceptions of climate use (through interpretation and oral communication) variability (section B); their knowledge and utilization of the research results. The latter stems from research of seasonal climate forecasts (section C); and their fa- utilization by intermediary organizations also being miliarity with and access to results of drought research low, at least in part because of the lack of institutional (section D). In Mali and Burkina Faso, local assistants structure for monitoring potentially beneficial re- from the NMHSs administered the questionnaires, search findings. However, there was great enthusiasm while ACMAD and University of Jos staff members for seasonal climate forecasts among respondents that administered them in Niger and Nigeria, respectively. already have access to such information. This end-user Seven languages were used: Bambara (Mali); Mossi, perception of climate forecasts appears overly opti- Gourmanche, and Fulani (Burkina Faso); Songhai,

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Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 05:36 AM UTC Hausa, and Djerma (Niger), and Hausa (Nigeria). See Borton, J., and E. Clay, 1986: The African food crisis of Table 2 for village-level details. In each country, field 1982-1986. Disasters, 10, 258-272. assistants were given an intensive 2- training by Broad, K., and S. Agrawala, 2000: The Ethiopia food the first author to ensure familiarity with the ratio- crisis—Uses and limits of climate forecasts. Science, nale and intent of the questions. 289, 1683-1684. Concerning the questionnaire for government or- Buchanan-Smith, M., S. Davis, and C. Petty, 1994: Food ganizations and intermediary groups, respondents security: Let them eat information. IDS Bull., 25, 69- were selected on the basis of their involvement in 80. implementing projects and policy related to climate Carter, R. C., 1995: A policy framework for surface wa- variability. The preponderance of Niger-based orga- ter and shallow groundwater allocation, with special nizations stemmed from the large number of nongov- reference to the Komadougou Yobe River Basin, ernmental organizations (NGOs) in that country, re- northeast Nigeria. Public Admin. Dev., 15, 103-120. flecting its dire economic status as the second poorest Charney, J. G., 1975: Dynamics of deserts and droughts nation in the world (U.N. Development Programme in the Sahel. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 101,193-202. 2002, p. 156). It was not possible to include any Cleaver, K. M., 1993: A strategy to develop agriculture Burkinabe organizations in the survey because, de- in sub-Saharan Africa and a focus on the World spite repeated efforts, no questionnaires were ever Bank. Africa Technical Department Series, World returned from them. However, because of strong so- Bank Tech. Paper No. 203, 140 pp. cietal and governmental similarities between the Darkoh, M. B., 1998: The nature, causes and conse- francophone countries, it is likely that the responses quences of desertification in the dry lands of Africa. from Niger and Mali are representative of Burkina Land Degrad. Dev., 9, 1-20. Faso. This questionnaire for organizations also con- De Kadt, E., 1989: Making health policy manage- tained four sections dealing with (a) the mission and ment intersectoral; Issues of information activities of the organization, (b) its awareness of and analysis and use in less developed countries. access to seasonal climate forecasts, (c) its knowledge Soc. Sci. Med., 29, 503-514. and utilization of drought research information, and Demaare, G. R., 1990: An indication of (d) interactions with user groups. as seen from the rainfall data of a Mauritanian sta- Not all respondents to both questionnaires an- tion. Theor. Appl. ClimatoL, 42, 139-147. swered every question. The questionnaires for orga- Easterling, W. E., 1986: Subscribers to the NOAA nizations in particular contained many unanswered Monthly and Seasonal Weather Outlook. Bull. Amer. questions, usually because the official did not feel Meteor. Soc., 67, 402-410. competent to respond to them. We analyzed only Eltahir, E. A., and C. Gong, 1996: Dynamics of wet and those questions for which the number of respondents dry years in West Africa. /. Climate, 9, 1030-1042. is at least 50 for user communities (out of 566) and Foley, G., W. Floor, G. Madon, E. M. Lawali, 10 for organizations (out of 26). P. Montagne, and K. Tounao, 1997: The Niger Household Project: Promoting rural fuelwood mar- kets and village management of natural woodlands. REFERENCES World Bank Tech. Paper No. 362, 103 pp. Adams, W. M., 1991: Large scale irrigation in northern Folland, C. K., T. N. Palmer, and D. E. Parker, 1986: Nigeria: Performance and ideology. Trans. Inst. Br. Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea , 1901- Geogr., 12, 287-300. 1985. Nature, 320, 602-607. Barnston, A. G., M. H. Glantz, and Y. He, 1999: Predic- Fukuda-Parr, S., 2002: Human development indicators tive skill of statistical and dynamical climate models 2002. U.N. Development Programme Human Devel- in SST forecasts during the 1997-98 El Nino episode opment Report, 277 pp. [Available online at http:// and the 1998 La Nina onset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., hdr.undp.org/reports/global/2002/en/indicator/ 80, 217-243. indicator.cfm?File=indic_290_l_l.html.] Bello, N. J., 1996: An investigation of the characteristics Glantz, M. H., 1977: The value of a long-range weather of the onset and cessation of the rains in Nigeria. forecast for the West African Sahel. Bull. Amer. Me- Theor. Appl. ClimatoL, 54, 161-173. teor. Soc., 58, 150-158. Benson, C., and E. Clay, 1998: The impact of drought , Ed., 1994: Drought Follows the Plow. Cambridge on sub-Saharan African economics: A preliminary University Press, 197 pp. examination. World Bank Tech. Paper No. 401, Grove, A. T., 1973: A note on the remarkable low rain- 80 pp. fall of the Sudan in 1913. Savanna, 2, 133-138.

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