CLIMATE RESEARCH AND SEASONAL FORECASTING FOR WEST AFRICANS Perceptions, Dissemination, and Use? BY AONDOVER TARHULE AND PETER J. LAMB Very few people in the Sahel use the results of climate research, and few have access to seasonal forecasts, even though the vast majority seem willing to use such information. uring the past 25 years, BAMS has emerged as a since 1913 (Grove 1973), and likely was among the forum for presenting ideas concerning the driest for several centuries (Nicholson 1978). Note Ddesign, use, quality, and value of seasonal climate that 1973 was only slightly wetter. forecasts (e.g., Glantz 1977; Lamb 1981; Easterling Glantz justified his hypothetical approach using so- 1986; Hastenrath 1986, 1990; Sonka et al. 1992; cial science reasoning that emphasized the "antithesis" Pulwarty and Redmond 1997; Barnston et al. 1999; of Utopia ("what ought to be") versus reality ("what Nicholls 1999). The process began with Glantz's is"). At the time, there was a complete lack of a sea- (1977) landmark study for the West African Sahel in sonal prediction capability for the West African Sahel which, using a retrospective questionnaire approach, due to the total absence of relevant research. While "People representing several disciplines and fields of Glantz's "tentative conclusion" was negative, namely endeavor were asked what they would have done in that "given the national structures in the Sahelian October 1972 had they had an accurate forecast in states in which a potential technological capability terms of monthly averages of rainfall and temperature would be used, the value of a long-range forecast, even for the rainy season (July-September) in 1973." a perfect one, would be limited" (p. 156), his "prelimi- Figure 1 conveys the high contemporary relevance of nary assessment" also was optimistic that the value of Glantz's question—the 1972 West African rainy sea- a long-range forecast "could be greatly enhanced if its son was by far the driest for many decades, probably implementation were to be coupled with the removal AFFILIATIONS: TARHULE—Department of Geography, University of E. Boyd Street, Norman, OK 73019 Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma; LAMB—Cooperative Institute for E-mail: [email protected] Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, and School of Meteorology, DOI: 10.1 175/BAMS-84-12-1741 University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma In final form 21 July 2003 CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Dr. Aondover Tarhule, Department © 2003 American Meteorological Society of Geography, University of Oklahoma, Sarkeys Energy Center, 100 AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY DECEMBER 2003 BAfft I 1741 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 05:36 AM UTC tention in recent decades, not only be- cause of the globally unparalleled per- sistence of anomalously low rainfall (Fig. 1), but also because of the ex- tremely low capacity of social and eco- logical systems for coping with such extremes. As a result of this low capac- ity, extreme climate variability, such as drought, is frequently accompanied by ecological decline, decimation of live- stock herds, widespread food scarcity, mass migrations, and great loss of hu- man life. For example, as many as FIG. I. Time series (1941-2001) of avg normalized Apr-Oct rainfall 250,000 people, along with 12 million departure (d) for 20 stations in the West African Soudano-Sahel zone cattle, are estimated to have died from (I I°-I8°N) west of I0°E. Renormalized and updated from earlier ver- starvation during the 1968-73 sions in Lamb (1978, 1982, 1985) and Lamb and Peppier (1991, 1992), Soudano-Sahelian drought (Fig. 1; where further details can be found. Borton and Clay 1986; Glantz 1994, p. 36). In the early to mid-1980s, of the numerous social, political, and economic ob- drought again imperiled millions of Africans (Fig. 1), stacles ... (that would permit)... for example ... the creating famine and refugee crises throughout much control of watering points, the establishment of range of the continent, including the Soudano-Sahel zone. reserves, the determination of an optimal carrying Beyond the humanitarian disaster, economic losses capacity, the development of an adequate market in- totaled several hundred million U.S. dollars, greatly frastructure and the like" (p. 157). disrupting the fragile economies of the affected young Twenty-five years later, we felt the time was op- countries (Benson and Clay 1998). portune to revisit the issues of seasonal forecasting and The capacity for dealing with drought and other its underpinning climate research for the people of climate variations principally depends on the extent West Africa. The effort reported here was encouraged to which (i) the problem is understood, (ii) such by a wide range of important developments during knowledge is accessible to potential victims and policy the intervening quarter century—the striking persis- makers, and (iii) society and vulnerable groups have tence of poor Sahelian rainy seasons (Fig. 1); consid- the ability to put that understanding into practice erable research into the characteristics, causes, pre- (Van Apeldoorn 1981). To date, research on dictability, and impacts of Sahelian drought and Soudano-Sahel climate variability has largely empha- rainfall variability; the strong evolution of most na- sized requirement (i) above, that is, the physical causes tional structures in West Africa toward democracy of climate variability and dimensions of its direct so- and economic liberalization; the establishment and cietal impacts. The considerable research and moni- maturation of West African institutions with regional toring in response to the 1968-73 drought has gen- responsibilities for climate monitoring and impact erated much information on the dynamics and assessment and mitigation; emergence of a well- social-ecological impacts of Soudano-Sahel drought defined international procedure for the annual prepa- (e.g., Charney 1975; Lamb 1978; Folland et al. 1986; ration, dissemination, and verification of research- Nicholson and Entekhabi 1986; Lamb and Peppier based seasonal rainfall forecasts for West Africa; and 1991, 1992; Hulme 1992; Hulme et al. 1992a; Eltahir the ever-improving electronic technology available to and Gong 1996; Darkoh 1998; Zeng et al. 1999; communicate climate research information and sea- Nicholson 2000). sonal forecasts. We elaborate on these motivations in In contrast, and despite the challenge offered by the next two sections, before presenting and discuss- Glantz's (1977) optimistic preliminary assessment, ing our new results. there has been relatively little systematic evaluation of how, or even if, the results of the research are uti- CLIMATE INFORMATION AND DECISION- lized by communities and activities at risk, that is, MAKING CONTEXT. Climate variability in the requirements (ii) and (iii) above. Such evaluation is Soudano-Sahel savanna zone (approximately 10°- useful for two reasons. First, it cannot be assumed that 18°N) of Africa has attracted much international at- research designed by climate scientists automatically 1742 | BAI1S- DECEMBER 2003 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 05:36 AM UTC yields results useful for people impacted by climate Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), variability (e.g., Lamb 1981; Stern and Easterling ACMAD, and AGRHYMET. The initial annual re- 1999). Second, there is a need to establish the path- sult of this collaboration is the issuance in May or ways through which information on climate variabil- early June of a seasonal forecast map for sub-Saharan ity, such as potentially beneficial climate research West Africa (expressed in tercile probabilities for findings and seasonal forecasts based on such findings, subregions; see online at www.acmad.ne/uk/) by the reaches vulnerable groups. A decade ago, an assessment West African Climate Outlook Forum. Next, each of this situation by Hulme et. al (1992b) still yielded NMHS uses this forecast map as guidance to develop a pessimistic outlook for West Africa. More recently, and present forecast information relevant to its coun- the Climate Forecasting for Agricultural Resources try to some form of a national Multidisciplinary Fore- (C FAR) project has begun addressing some of these is- cast Monitoring Group (MFMG). The MFMG com- sues by considering incentives and constraints to imple- position varies somewhat between countries, but menting seasonal forecasts in one Soudano-Sahelian generally consists of representatives of various gov- nation, Burkina Faso (e.g., Kirshen and Flitcroft 2000; ernment agencies (e.g., Ministries of Agriculture, Roncoli et al. 2001, 2002; Ingram et al. 2002). Water Resources, Public Health, Environment), in- This pathway issue is especially timely because re- ternational organizations (e.g., FEWS), research in- cent advances concerning the dynamics of African stitutes [e.g., International Agriculture Organization climate variability, including its linkages with the rest (IAO), International Crop Research Institute for the of the global climate system, have improved signifi- Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)], and organizations cantly the prospects for medium-range to seasonal [including CILSS and nongovernmental organiza- weather/climate forecasting (i.e., for 1 week to sev- tions (NGOs)] concerned with managing climate eral months in advance) for the Soudano-Sahel zone variability and implementing mitigation activities in (e.g., Lamb and Peppier 1991,1992; Eltahir and Gong drought-prone regions. Decisions regarding the na- 1996; Thiaw et al. 1999). Indeed, this expanding tional forecast