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Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine • Economic Vision - 3

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Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine • Economic Vision - 3 Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine • Economic vision - 3 • Macroeconomic policy - 12 • International economic policy and trade - 27 • Investment attractiveness - 43 • Agricultural industry - 69 • Energy sector - 92 • Mineral industry - 107 • Transport and infrastructure - 121 • Industry - 138 Source: Centre for Economic Recovery CabinetCabinet ofof MinistersMinisters of of Ukraine Ukraine MISSION OF UKRAINE’S ESTABLISHMENT IN THE SCOPE OF ECONOMIC STRATEGY To lay the groundwork for fulfillment available geographic, resource and human potential of the country to provide welfare, self-fulfillment, safety and freedoms of each citizen of Ukraine through innovative and advanced economic development ECONOMIC VISION OF UKRAINE Free country with the high level of welfare and effective service digital country which is a reliable economic partner globally and an example of development for all Eastern Partnership countries.. The most attractive country of economic opportunities for investments and doing business; the best place for creative potential fulfillment, ideas realization and self-development. UKRAINIAN STRATEGY To realize the vision it is necessary to (1) develop competitive conditions for business and investments and recover trust to the state, (2) win in competition for capital in the international market, (3) facilitate development of innovations and modernization of economic sectors to provide their competitiveness in the international market, (4) facilitate development of human potential and win competition for talents. Source: Centre for Economic Recovery ECONOMIC VISION OF UKRAINE Free country with the high level of welfare and effective service digital country which is a reliable economic partner globally. The most attractive country of economic opportunities for investments and doing business; the best place for creative potential fulfillment, ideas realization and self-development. ANALISIS OF ELECTORAL PROGRAM OF THE PRESIDENT (marked with bold type) AND PROGRAM OF THE PARTY “SLUGA NARODU” (“PUBLIC SERVANT” (marked with italic type)) Not fight but victory against corruption People’s rule through plebiscites Elimination of institutional corruption. Fair and independent courts, affordable 1 National identity and civil consent 6 trials Healthy and educated people Human is of ultimate value 2 7 Affordable healthcare. Education and science Justice and equal treatment before the law Comfortable country 3 Cleared, updated and responsible authorities. Reform of 8 Reform of the social sector. Energy sector and tariff setting. the law enforcement authorities Infrastructure. Environment protection 4 Safety of the human. National safety 9 Digital country Safety and defence. Ukraine and the world Innovational economy Wealthy citizens - prosperous state 5 Economic strategy. The best conditions for business Source: Centre for Economic Recovery, electoral program of the President of Ukraine, program of the party “Sluga Narodu” (“Public Servant”) PRINCIPLES OF STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION RED LINES: WHAT IS UNACCEPTABLE IN THE PROCESS OF STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION 1. Direction • Termination of structural reforms • European and Euro-Atlantic integration • Growth of business over-regulation 2. Law (“inviolable private property”) • Growth of tax burden • Rule of law • Failure to comply with the Association Agreement with EU • Protection (and priority) of private ownership • Loss of independence by the National Bank of Ukraine, • Intolerance to corruption Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine, Accounting Chamber of Ukraine, National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine 3. Economic freedoms (“entrepreneur is a pivot of economy”) • Sectors monopolization / tycoonization • Free and fair competition, equal access for business • Dishonest use of economic incentives • Development of business, innovations and talents • Departure from reform of underdeveloped markets • Barrier-free capital flow • Increase of fraudulent use of budget funds 4. Institutional competence (“the state which is capable to provide • development”) Loss of creditworthiness and credit rating • • Realism and subjectivity in determination of economic development Accumulation of critical debt volume directions • Decrease of transparency in state-owned assets administration • Integral economic approach, ability to combine liberal and institutional approaches effectively • Effective service digital country and compact state institutions • National security based on partnership and investments Source: Centre for Economic Recovery Successful implementation of Ukraine's course for EU and NATO membership will have a number of side effects in the country, as well as at the regional and international levels. 1 Will increase the investment attractiveness and price of assets in its territory due to reduced risks to international capital 2 3 It will change Ukraine's role in the region as a guarantor of security, Ukraine will be a successful role model among all Eastern not a source of potential threats Partnership countries, which will strengthen its soft power 4 5 Ukraine's military-industrial complex and defense sector will Access to EU Structural Funds will allow modernization of social gradually reorient to NATO standards and will be included in the infrastructure and acceleration of living standards in Ukraine arms and defense chains of member states. 6 The country will improve indicators of gender equality and general respect for human rights and freedoms, which will change its image in the international arena Ukraine's active involvement in China's One Belt One Road initiative should be based on the EU-Asia Connection Strategy. It should take place on a parity basis and change transport corridors and value chains, taking into account the interest of Ukraine. Source: Centre for Economic Recovery Current level in the countries of the region Current level Target value1 (2019) Indice (2019) (2030) Poland Turkey Real GDP, bln USD 136 300-400 660 1 251 GDP per capita (USD) 3 659 7 300 – 11 200 15 595 9 042 Added value per employee, USD 8 286 from 18 400 to 26 000 41 675 44 153 Direct foreign investment (net inflows), bln USD 5.8 from 15 to 23 14.4 9 Export of goods and services, bln USD 67 from 120 to 160 324 236 Budget (expenditure), bln USD 53 from 90 to 140 176 249 Source: Centre for Economic Recovery, World Bank, cost.ua, Note: 1 – according to estimates of V.Vlasyuk “Economic recovery through industrial development:; А. Аmelin, V. Andruziv “Vision of Ukraine 2030”; indicators will be adjusted after the results of economic modeling Stage 1. Increasing competitiveness Stage 2. Innovative growth Stage 3. Sustainable development 2021–2022 2022–2025 2026 –2040 2041–2050 European Center for Providing incentives for business Development of digital, innovative, Attracting talent from around the Entrepreneurship, Science and development creative industries world Education, Creative Industries Providing attractive conditions for Credit rating upgrade The best place to invest in Europe The country is a creditor and investor FDI Consolidation of the country's Development of modern industries, innovation parks Modernization of production position of prosperity and well-being Introduction of automation and robotization of processes, digitalization of economy Talent retention. Gradual return of skilled labor Development of export of value- The country is an exporter of high- Expanding the geography of exports added products tech products and services Introduction of modern higher and Development of innovation Reform of fundamental science vocational education infrastructure Source: Centre for Economic Recovery Healthcare Rule of law Education Regulatory environment Culture Macroeconomic stability Ukrainian as Stable government Environment protection policy Safety High investment yield Conditions for foreign Social security trade Service support Vast internal market Source: Centre for Economic Recovery Competition for Competition for goods and services Basis development Competition for human capital capital markets National Entrepreneurship / Digital economy / Regional development economic Efficient Direct strategy: macroeconomic policy foreign targets and (monetary, fiscal, Development of capital intensive and investments Service industry roadmap taxation policy) innovative industries Manufacturing Agricultural Development and defence sector and food of internal Healthcare industry industry market of Efficient state demand Rule of law Education administration: Growth of IT sector Mining industry targets well-being of Domestic Culture cascading and investments the congruity of the International economic Creative industries and hospitality population strategy policy industry Social security Incentives for Infrastructural sectors export Efficient regulation the ofstate Creation reputation Safety Transport and Creation of Energy sector Environment offices to Public infrastructure Development of the unified of of the the country unified vision Development protection implement the investments state policy Administration of the state-owned assets Cultural and value transformation Source: Centre for Economic Recovery CabinetCabinet ofof MinistersMinisters of of Ukraine Ukraine ASPECT VISION: Ukraine is a country with efficient public finances and developed financial sector facilitating economic growth in the country Connection with Direct impact – Budget (revenues and expenditures), Direct foreign investments strategic indices of Minor impact – GDP, added value per employee economic vision Strategic objective 1.
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