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Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics After World War I
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER June 2018 Working Paper 2018-06 https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2018/06/ Suggested citation: Lopez, Jose A., Kris James Mitchener. 2018. “Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2018-06. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2018-06 The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER* May 9, 2018 ABSTRACT. Fiscal deficits, elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, and high inflation rates suggest hyperinflation could have potentially emerged in many European countries after World War I. We demonstrate that economic policy uncertainty was instrumental in pushing a subset of European countries into hyperinflation shortly after the end of the war. Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary (GAPH) suffered from frequent uncertainty shocks – and correspondingly high levels of uncertainty – caused by protracted political negotiations over reparations payments, the apportionment of the Austro-Hungarian debt, and border disputes. In contrast, other European countries exhibited lower levels of measured uncertainty between 1919 and 1925, allowing them more capacity with which to implement credible commitments to their fiscal and monetary policies. -
Records of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1891-1957, Record Group 85 New Orleans, Louisiana Crew Lists of Vessels Arriving at New Orleans, LA, 1910-1945
Records of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1891-1957, Record Group 85 New Orleans, Louisiana Crew Lists of Vessels Arriving at New Orleans, LA, 1910-1945. T939. 311 rolls. (~A complete list of rolls has been added.) Roll Volumes Dates 1 1-3 January-June, 1910 2 4-5 July-October, 1910 3 6-7 November, 1910-February, 1911 4 8-9 March-June, 1911 5 10-11 July-October, 1911 6 12-13 November, 1911-February, 1912 7 14-15 March-June, 1912 8 16-17 July-October, 1912 9 18-19 November, 1912-February, 1913 10 20-21 March-June, 1913 11 22-23 July-October, 1913 12 24-25 November, 1913-February, 1914 13 26 March-April, 1914 14 27 May-June, 1914 15 28-29 July-October, 1914 16 30-31 November, 1914-February, 1915 17 32 March-April, 1915 18 33 May-June, 1915 19 34-35 July-October, 1915 20 36-37 November, 1915-February, 1916 21 38-39 March-June, 1916 22 40-41 July-October, 1916 23 42-43 November, 1916-February, 1917 24 44 March-April, 1917 25 45 May-June, 1917 26 46 July-August, 1917 27 47 September-October, 1917 28 48 November-December, 1917 29 49-50 Jan. 1-Mar. 15, 1918 30 51-53 Mar. 16-Apr. 30, 1918 31 56-59 June 1-Aug. 15, 1918 32 60-64 Aug. 16-0ct. 31, 1918 33 65-69 Nov. 1', 1918-Jan. 15, 1919 34 70-73 Jan. 16-Mar. 31, 1919 35 74-77 April-May, 1919 36 78-79 June-July, 1919 37 80-81 August-September, 1919 38 82-83 October-November, 1919 39 84-85 December, 1919-January, 1920 40 86-87 February-March, 1920 41 88-89 April-May, 1920 42 90 June, 1920 43 91 July, 1920 44 92 August, 1920 45 93 September, 1920 46 94 October, 1920 47 95-96 November, 1920 48 97-98 December, 1920 49 99-100 Jan. -
Prohibition, American Cultural Expansion, and the New Hegemony in the 1920S: an Interpretation
Prohibition, American Cultural Expansion, and the New Hegemony in the 1920s: An Interpretation IAN TYRRELL* In the [920s American prohibitionists, through the World League against Alcohol ism, sought to extend their war on liquor beyond the boundaries of the United States. Prohibitionistsfailed in their efforts due to anti-American sentiment, complex class and cultural opposition to prohibition, and negative reporting of the experi ment with prohibition in the U.S. Nevertheless, restrictive anti-alcohol laws were introduced in a number ofcountries. Moreover, the efforts ofAmerican prohibition ists furthered the larger process of American cultural expansion by emphasizing achievements of the U.S. in economic modernization and technical advancement. This episode in American cultural expansion occurred with the support of anti alcohol groups in foreign countries that embraced the message equating American reform with modernity. Prohibitionists abroad colluded in the process, thereby accepting a form ofAmerican cultural hegemony. En 1920, par l'intermédiaire de la World League against Alcoholism, les prohibi tionnistes américains se sont efforcés de pousser leur lutte contre l'alcool au-delà des frontières des États-Unis. Cependant, le sentiment anti-américain, l'opposition complexe des classes et de la culture à l'endroit de la prohibition ainsi que la mauvaise presse dont l'expérience américaine a fait l'objet ont fait échouer leurs efforts. Néanmoins, plusieurs pays ont adopté des lois restrictives contre l'alcool. Qui plus est, les efforts des prohibitionnistes américains ont favorisé l'expansion de la culture américaine en mettant en valeur les réussites des É.-u. au chapitre de la modernisation économique et de l'avancement de la technologie. -
Economic Review
The Monthly B usiness R eview Covering Business and Agricultural Conditions in the Sixth Federal Reserve District FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA JOS. A. McCORD, Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent WARD ALBERTSON, Assistant Federal Reserve Agent VOL. 6 ATLANTA, GEORGIA, SEPTEMBER 28, 1921 No. 9 The outstanding feature of the business situation since the last issue According to the Bureau of the Census of the Department of Commerce, of the Monthly Business Review is the improvement in the South’s econo the amount of cotton on hand in public storage and at compresses at the mic position resulting for the most part from the advance of approxi close of February, 1920, was 3,530,654 bales, as against 5,497,019 bales mately forty dollars a bale, from $60 to $100, in the price of cotton, a year later. The total crop yield of 1920, 12,987,000 bales, added to the the principal agricultural product of the District. total estimated for this year, 7,037,000 bales, gives a gross production for the two years of 20,024,000 bales, or an average of 10,012,000 bales, as against a five-year average for 1915-1919 of 11,481,000 bales. On August 15th cotton was around 12 cents per pound, and one month later, or about the middle of September the price had advanced to ap proximately 20 cents per pound. This advance in the price of the leading The exports for the two years from July 1, 1919 to July 1, 1921 amount commodity of the Sixth Federal Reserve District has had a stimulating ed to 12,324,510 bales, an average of 6,162,255 bales, as compared with a effect on business, as well as having a good psychological effect. -
Federal Reserve Bulletin October 1922
FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN (FINAL EDITION) ISSUED BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD AT WASHINGTON OCTOBER, 1922 WASHINGTON GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 1922 Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD. Ex officio members: -, Governor. A. W. MELLON, EDMUND PLATT, Vice Governor. Secretary of the Treasury, Chairman. ADOLPH C. MILLER. D. R. CRISSINGER, CHARLES S. HAMLIN. Comptroller of the Currency. I JOHN R. MITCHELL. W. W. HOXTON, Secretary. j WALTER WYATT, General Counsel. W. L. EDDY, Assistant Secretary. j WALTER W. STEWART, I Director, Division of Analysis and Research. W. M. IMLAY, Fiscal Agent. M. JACOBSON, Statistician. J. F. HERSON, E. A. GOLDENWEISER, Associate Statistician. Chief, Division of Examination and Chief Federal E. L. SMEAD, Reserve Examiner. Chief, Division cf Bank Operations. FEDERAL ADVISORY COUNCIL. (For the year 1922.) DISTRICT NO. 1 (BOSTON) PHILIP STOCKTON. DISTRICT NO. 2 (NEW YORK) PAUL M. WARBURG, Vice President. DISTRICT NO. 3 (PHILADELPHIA) L. L. RUE, President. DISTRICT NO. 4 (CLEVELAND) CORLISS E. SULLIVAN. DISTRICT NO. 5 (RICHMOND) J. G. BROWN. DISTRICT NO. 6 (ATLANTA) EDWARD W. LANE. DISTRICT NO. 7 (CHICAGO) „ JOHN J. MITCHELL. DISTRICT NO. 8 (ST. LOUIS) FESTUS J. WADE. DISTRICT NO. 9 (MINNEAPOLIS) G. II. PRINCE. DISTRICT NO. 10 (KANSAS CITY) E. F. SWINNEY. DISTRICT NO. 11 (DALLAS) R. L. BALL. DISTRICT NO. 12 (SAN FRANCISCO) D. W. TWOHY. II Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis OFFICERS OF FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. Federal Reserve Bank of— | Chairman. Governor. Deputy governor. Cashier. Boston Frederic H. Curtiss.. Chas. A. Mores C. -
Thirty-Second Annual List of Papers
1923.] LIST OF PUBLISHED PAPERS 485 THIRTY-SECOND ANNUAL LIST OF PAPERS READ BEFORE THE AMERICAN MATHEMATICAL SOCIETY AND SUBSEQUENTLY PUBLISHED, INCLUDING REFERENCES TO THE PLACES OF PUBLICATION ALEXANDER, J. W. A proof and extension of the Jordan-Brouwer separa tion theorem. Read April 29, 1916. Transactions of this Society, vol. 23, No. 4, pp. 333-349; June, 1922. Invariant points of a surface transformation of given class. Read Dec. 28, 1922. Transactions of this Society, vol. 25, No. 2, pp. 173- 184; April, 1923. BARNETT, I. A. Differential equations with a continuous infinitude of variables. Read Dec. 28, 1918. American Journal of Mathematics, vol. 44, No. 3, pp. 172-190; July, 1922. Linear partial differential equations with a continuous infinitude of variables. Read Dec. 28, 1918, and April 24, 1920. American Journal of Mathematics, vol. 45, No. 1, pp. 42-53; Jan., 1923. BELL, E. T. On restricted systems of higher indeterminate equations. Read (San Francisco) June 18, 1920. Transactions of this Society, vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 483-488; Oct., 1921. Anharmonic polynomial generalizations of the numbers of Bernoulli and Euler. Read (San Francisco) April 9, 1921. Transactions of this Society, vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 89-112; Sept., 1922. Periodicities in the theory of partitions. Read (San Francisco) April 8, 1922. Annals of Mathematics, (2), vol. 24, No. 1, pp. 1-22; Sept., 1922. Relations between the numbers of Bernoulli, Euler, Genocchi, and Lucas. Read (San Francisco) April 8, 1922. Messenger of Mathe matics, vol. 52, No. 4, pp. 56-64, and No. 5, pp. 65-68; Aug. -
How Do You Address the Economic Damage from a Pandemic?
HOW DO YOU ADDRESS THE ECONOMIC DAMAGE FROM A PANDEMIC? We cannot be sure that we will ever fully eradicate COVID-19 from our lives but it is becoming clearer that masks, social distancing and now even more importantly, vaccines are reducing the risks of the virus. What are the implications for the economy and your investments? We researched the 1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic to learn how the recovery played out then. World War I was being waged when the pandemic began. An estimated 500 million people in the world were infected. It killed 50 million people including 675,000 Americans (about 0.67% of the population; at 550,000 COVID- related deaths as of this writing that equates to about 0.16% of the U.S. population today). While COVID-19 mostly impacts the elderly, the 1918 Flu took the biggest toll on younger people who comprised the bulk of the physical labor force at the time. How did the markets perform during the Flu years? Interestingly, in 1917 the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 21.7%. The following two years while the pandemic raged, the market increased 10.5% in 1918 and another 30.5% in 1919. Similar to today the stock markets performed well despite restrictions on public gatherings. In 1918 the Commercial and Financial Chronicle, a leading business news outlet at that time, reported: “In Boston the question of closing the churches is being discussed as a mean of checking the epidemic. In Pennsylvania all places of public amusement, schools, churches and all saloons have been ordered closed until further notice.” The Surgeon General of the US at the time said that these closings are: “the only way to stop the spread of the virus”. -
Tuesday, 5 December 1922 Various Resolutions; Election of ECCI; Close of Congress
Session 32 – Tuesday, 5 December 1922 Various Resolutions; Election of ECCI; Close of Congress The Norwegian question. Resolution on the terror in Ire- land. Question of the Versailles Peace Treaty. Tactics of the Communist International. The Eastern question. Edu- cational work. France. Resolution on the Russian Revolu- tion. Election of the Executive Committee. Closing speech by Zinoviev. Speakers: Haakon Meyer, Connolly, Hoernle, Bor- diga, Clara Zetkin, Kolarov, Billings, Grün, Torp, Kolarov, Zinoviev Convened: 6:50 p.m. Chairperson: Neurath Haakon Meyer (Norway): The majority of the Nor- wegian delegation states that it is not happy with the proposed resolution. A number of its points do not reflect our views. In some cases, we believe that the Commission has handled specific matters in too abstract and schematic a fashion. This applies, for example, to the cases of Halvard Olsen and Karl Johanssen. As for the latter point, a proposal had been made by the entire delegation to formulate this differ- ently, but it was rejected by the Commission. In other cases, we believe that the resolution is insufficiently objective. That applies to the point concerning Mot Dag, which, in our opinion, is not a closed group, and also for Point 4 [of the resolution], which deserves criticism. 1094 • Session 32 – 5 December 1922 However, after thorough discussion of all the disputed questions in the Commission, we will not initiate further debate in the plenary, but, rather, state that the majority of the delegation will vote for the resolution. Chair: We will now take the vote on the resolution proposed by the Norwegian Commission. -
Houlton Times, June 7, 1922
m 11111 n f 11111 l l ( t i i t n i u j i l l 111 n m m i i i i i i r 111111111 n m 1111111 ii tu t li t n i n u 111: f i r • 11 r 111 t SHIRE TOWN OF ] AROOSTOOK TIMES 1 April 13, 1860 to § I AROOSTOOK COUNTY 1 December 27, 1916 f I r I = MOULTON TIMES 111111 r i m i i i 111 m i m 11 m i t i i m i j 111 n ii n t in j 11 it m i ti n m i i m 111 m m i f 11 m u i ' i n i n ti h i m r Vol. L X II HOULTOX, MAINE, WEDNESDAY, JUNE 7, 1922 No. 23 POTATO ACREAGE MUSIC CLUB PICNIC SUPPER VOCAL RECITAL RADIO CONCERT GIVEN On We*dne*sday (“veiling, May thirty COMBINATION OF CLASSES IN Those* who attended the* vocal first, .Mrs. (). A. Hodgins, tin* new recital Friday e-vening given by the FOR AROOSTOOK president, delightfully entertained the BY LOCAL CONCERN pupils of Miss Mary Burpee at the members of tin* Houlton Music Club. RICKER AND HOULTON NIGH Conditions of Planting Aroostook’s Tin* delicious refreshments represent Temple theatre following the picture* Interesting Many Spectators Who En Leading Crop ing a picnic spread were served buffet A Proposition Which Seems Feasible if Arrangements can enjoyed each number. Much creel: t joyed the Novelty ---------- style, the ladies with utensils in hand is due the te*ache*r for the spleuidi 1 The planting in Aroostook has been formed a line and obtained the “hot” be Made Between the Two Schools training. -
The Submarine and the Washington Conference Of
477 THE SUBMARINE AND THE WASHINGTON CONFERENCE OF 1921 Lawrence H. Douglas Following the First World War, the tation of this group, simply stated, was tide of public opinion was overwhelm that second best in naval strength meant ingly against the submarine as a weapon last. A policy of naval superiority was of war. The excesses of the German necessary, they felt, for "history consis U-boat had stunned the sensibilities of tently shows that war between no two the world but had, nonetheless, pre peoples or nations can be unthink sented new ideas and possibilities of this able.,,1 A second group, the Naval weapon to the various naval powers of Advisory Committee (Admirals Pratt the time. The momentum of these new and Coontz and Assistant Secretary of ideas proved so strong that by the the Navy Theodore Roosevelt, Jr.) also opening of the first major international submitted recommendations concerning disarmament conference of the 20th the limitation of naval armaments. century, practical uses of the submarine From the outset their deliberations were had all but smothered the moral indig guided by a concern that had become nation of 1918. more and more apparent-the threat Several months prior to the opening posed to the security and interests of of the conference, the General Board of this country by Japan. This concern was the American Navy was given the task evidenced in an attempt to gain basic of developing guidelines and recommen understandings with Britain. dations to be used by the State Depart The submarine received its share of ment in determining the American attention in the deliberations of these proposals to be presented. -
Germany 1919-1941 U.S
U.S. MILITARY INTELLIGENCE REPORTS : GERMANY 1919-1941 U.S. MILITARY INTELLIGENCE REPORTS: GERMANY, 1919-1941 Edited by Dale Reynolds Guide Compiled by Robert Lester A Microfilm Project of UNIVERSITY PUBLICATIONS OF AMERICA, INC. 44 North Market Street • Frederick, MD 21701 Copyright© 1983 by University Publications of America, Inc. All rights reserved. ISBN 0-89093^26-6. Note on Sources The Documents in this Collection are from the National Archives and Record Service, Washington, D.C., Record Group #165. Mil- itary Intelligence Division Files: Germany. TABLE OF CONTENTS Red Index 1 Reel I 1 Reel II 6 Reel III 10 Reel IV 15 Reel V 18 Reel VI 22 Reel VII 25 Reel VIII 29 Reel IX 31 Reel X 33 Reel XI 33 Reel XII 34 Reel XIII 35 Reel XIV 38 Reel XV 39 Reel XVI 41 Reel XVII 43 Reel XVIII 45 Reel XIX 47 Reel XX 49 Reel XXI 52 Reel XXII 54 Reel XXIII 56 Reel XXIV 58 Reel XXV 61 Reel XXVI 63 Reel XXVII 65 Reel XXVIII 68 Subject Index 71 Dates to Remember February 3,1917 Severance of U.S. Diplomatic Relations with Germany; Declara- tion of War November 11,1918 Armistice December 1, 1918 U.S. Troops of the 3rd Army cross the Rhine and Occupy the Rhine Province July 2,1919 Departure of the U.S. 3rd Army; the U.S. Army of the Rhine Occupies Coblenz in the Rhine Province December 10, 1921 Presentation of Credentials of the U.S. Charge d'Affaires in Berlin April 22, 1922 Withdrawal of U.S. -
RF Annual Report
K.I: 10 •; i;.-/-,|i c /;-vi fiU |:-f I 1 l: 1 11 /: I; Y- ' ' The Rockefeller Foundation Annual Report 1921 The Rockefeller Foundation 61 Broadway, New York ,1 AH-fW M J) t-l Jl AO il MW I'l A,') Nil YMAJIH I.I >Uin Y W i M CONTENTS THE ROCKEFELLER FOUNDATION FACE President's Review 1 Report of the Secretary 75 Report of the Treasurer 339 INTERNATIONAL HEALTH BOARD Report of the General Director 85 Appendix 159 CHINA MEDICAL BOARD Report of the Director 243 DIVISION OF MEDICAL EDUCATION Report of the General Director... 311 ILLUSTRATIONS PAGE Map of world-wide activities of the Rockefeller Foundation 4-5 Full-time health workers in United States, 1921 IS Professional training of health officials 17 Students at work in the bacteriological laboratory of the School of Hygiene and Public Health of Johns Hopkins University 25 Class in protozoology, Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health 25 Architect's drawing of proposed new building to house the School of Hygiene and Public Health of Johns Hopkins University 26 The " Pay Clinic " of Cornell University Medical College 26 Staff and students of the Peking Union Medical College 41 Academic procession at dedication of the Peking Union Medical College 42 A part of the academic procession at the dedication of the Peking Union Medical College, September 19, 1921 42 Map used in anti-malaria campaign in Louisiana 58 Yellow fever map of the Western Hemisphere 96 Scene of violent yellow fever epidemic in Peru during 1921....... 98 Three aspects of yellow fever control effort in Peru during 1921...