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Unternehmertum Im Aufwind? Zwischen Diversifizierung Und

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Unternehmertum Im Aufwind? Zwischen Diversifizierung Und LÄNDERBERICHT Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. REGIONALPROGRAMM GOLF-STAATEN RAHMA JANETZKE DR. GIDON WINDECKER Aufbruch in die nächste Generation? 27. Januar 2015 SAUDI-ARABIEN UNTER KÖNIG SALMAN www.kas.de/rpg Auch wenn schon seit längerem über eine dem traditionellen Erzrivalen Iran, der poli- anstehende Thronfolge in Saudi-Arabien tischen Bedrohung durch sunnitischen Ext- spekuliert worden war, warf die Nachricht remismus im eigenen Land und Instabilität vom Tod König Abdullahs am Morgen des in der Region bestimmt. 23. Januar 2015 dennoch die Frage auf, was ein Machtwechsel für die saudische So ist das Königreich einer von zehn MENA- Politik bedeuten würde. Bisher hatten Staaten, der sich im September 2014 offizi- Wechsel an der Spitze des Königsreichs ell der internationalen Koalition gegen den allerdings nur einen geringen Einfluss auf sogenannten „Islamischen Staat“ (arab. die Politik im Wüstenstaat und auch diese Da‘ish) angeschlossen hat und sich auch am Thronbesteigung lässt keinen signifikan- US-geführten Luftkrieg gegen die Terror- ten Kurswechsel erwarten. Stattdessen gruppe beteiligt.1 Nach der schmerzhaften wird der neue saudische König Salman die Al Qaida-Erfahrung2 könnte nun eine erneu- Politik der zaghaften, inkrementellen Re- te Rückkehr von radikalisierten saudischen formen seines Vorgängers aller Voraus- Kämpfern, beispielsweise aus Syrien, Irak sicht nach fortsetzen und gleichzeitig die und Libyen, abermals zu einer erheblichen unvermeidbare Machtübergabe an die En- Bedrohung der inneren Sicherheit führen. kelgeneration des Staatsgründers Abdula- Vor diesem Hintergrund hat das Kö- ziz Al Saud vorbereiten. nigshaus Anfang 2014 ein nationales Anti- Terrorgesetz erlassen, welches unter ande- Die Politik des kürzlich verstorbenen Monar- rem die Strafen für saudische Staatsbürger, chen war von zahlreichen Widersprüchen die sich an Konflikten außerhalb des König- geprägt: Konservativen Saudis war er zu reichs beteiligen, drastisch verschärft hat.3 liberal und nachgiebig, liberal Orientierten im Land wiederum zu konservativ und ar- Innenpolitisch galt der am 23. Januar 2015 chaisch. Im Westen sahen ihn viele als au- verstorbene König als – zumindest für sau- toritären Diktator und stießen sich an der dische Verhältnisse – pragmatischer Refor- strikt-wahhabitischen Auslegung des Islam, mer, der versuchte, die von einem Span- während ihm zuhause vorgeworfen wurde, nungsfeld zwischen ultra-konservativen zu eng mit dem Westen verbandelt zu sein. Und dennoch führte er das konservative Land auf der arabischen Halbinsel größten- 1 N.N., „Saudi Arabia confirms role in strikes teils unbeschadet durch zwei besonders tur- against Islamic State in Syria”, in: Reuters, URL: bulente Jahrzehnte im Nahen Osten, ge- http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/23/us- syria-crisis-saudi-idUSKCN0HI1Y120140923 prägt von Krieg, Terror, Revolutionen und (veröffentlicht am 23. September 2014). 2 zunehmender Instabilität. In den 1980ern unterstützte die saudische Re- gierung sunnitische Gruppierungen, die sich ge- gen das militärische Eingreifen der Sowjetunion in Afghanistan stellten. Zahlreiche saudische König Abdullahs Erbe Staatsbürger beteiligten sich damals an den Kämpfen und kehrten teils radikalisiert in das Königreich zurück. Hier entsprang auch die radi- Sowohl innen- als auch außenpolitisch folgte kal-islamistische Gruppierung Al Qaida. König Abdullah konsequent der Prämisse 3 Human Rights Watch, „Saudi Arabia: New Ter- rorism Regulations Assault Rights”, URL: „Sicherheit und Machterhalt“. Dabei wurde http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/03/20/saudi- die saudische Politik durch die Sorge vor arabia-new-terrorism-regulations-assault-rights (veröffentlicht am 20. März 2014). 2 Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. Wahhabiten und relativ liberalen, im Westen unterworfen und dürfen immer noch nicht ausgebildeten, jungen Saudis geprägte Ge- selbst Auto fahren. REGIONALPROGRAMM sellschaft durch zaghafte Reformen zu mo- GOLF-STAATEN dernisieren. So bekämpfte Abdullah erfolg- Basierend auf dem neuen Anti-Terrorgesetz RAHMA JANETZKE reich die noch unter König Fahd grassieren- zeigte das Land unter König Abdullah eben- DR. GIDON WINDECKER de Korruption, öffnete den heimischen so nicht nur gegenüber Terrorgruppen wie Markt stärker für ausländische Investoren dem „Islamischen Staat“ eine harte Hand, 27. Januar 2015 und führte Saudi-Arabien in die G20 sowie sondern auch gegenüber oppositionellen www.kas.de/rpg die Welthandelsorganisation.4 Kräften jeglicher Art im Königreich. Anhä- nger politischer Organisationen wie der Auch den Konflikt mit den einflussreichen Muslimbruderschaft, aber auch liberale Religionsgelehrten (arab. Ulema), die seit Denker, junge Aktivisten und Blogger wur- der Staatsgründung ein zentraler Pfeiler der den vermehrt systematisch verfolgt und Macht der Familie Al Saud sind, scheute er wegen „terroristischer Aktivitäten“ mit dra- nicht und ließ die bei vielen Saudis zuneh- konischen Strafen belegt.8 Ein prominentes mend unpopulären Gängelungen der mäch- Beispiel ist der saudi-arabische Blogger Raif tigen Religionspolizei (arab. Mutawwa) maß- Badawi, der wegen „Beleidigung des Islam“ regeln. Trotz großer Kritik von Seiten der kürzlich zu zehn Jahren Haft, 1000 Peit- Kleriker setzte Abdullah sich für die Stär- schenhieben und einer Geldstrafe von um- kung der Frau ein: Als erster König berief er gerechnet fast 200.000 Euro verurteilt wur- eine Frau in die Regierung,5 öffnete das be- de.9 ratende Schura-Gremium für weibliche Mit- glieder und versprach, dass Frauen ab 2015 König Salman: das passive und aktive Wahlrecht erhalten Verwalter des Status quo? werden.6 Dank seiner Reformen sind heute außerdem mehr als die Hälfte aller Universi- Von König Abdullahs Nachfolger, seinem 79- tätsabsolventen im Königreich weiblich und jährigen Halbbruder Salman bin Abdulaziz, Frauen werden zunehmend in den Arbeits- sind keine ambitionierten Reformprojekte zu markt integriert.7 Gleichzeitig scheute er erwarten, zumal Saudi-Arabien seine Si- aber den allzu offenen Bruch mit dem sozia- cherheit weiterhin von außen bedroht sieht len und religiösen Status quo: Das öffentli- und sich auch die innenpolitischen Rahmen- che Leben wird von einer strikten Ge- bedingungen auf absehbare Zeit nicht ver- schlechtertrennung geprägt, Frauen sind ändern werden. Während Salman als lang- weiterhin einem Vormund (arab. Wakeel) jähriger Gouverneur von Riad die Haupt- stadt zwischen 1963 und 2011 von einer kleinen Wüstenenklave im saudischen Hin- terland in eine moderne Metropole nach amerikanischem Vorbild verwandelte, un- 4 Sarie Khalid, „King Abdullah’s reforms transfor- terhält er zur selben Zeit gute Beziehungen med Saudi Arabia”, in: Khaleej Times, URL: http://www.khaleejtimes.com/biz/inside.asp?xfil zu den saudischen Religionsgelehrten und e=/data/opinionanalysis/2015/January/opiniona nalysis_January37.xml&section=opinionanalysis gilt allgemein als konservativer und bedäch- (veröffentlicht am 27. Januar 2015). tiger als Abdullah.10 5 Courtney C. Radsch, „Saudi’s first female minis- ter cracks glass ceiling”, in: Al Arabiya News, URL: http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2009/02/15/6 6532.html (veröffentlicht am 15. Februar 2009). 6 Frauen sollen so künftig an den Kommunalwah- 8 Amnesty International, „Amnesty Report 2013 len, die 2005 zum ersten Mal in Saudi-Arabien Saudi-Arabien“, URL: abgehalten wurden, teilnehmen können. Vgl. https://www.amnesty.de/jahresbericht/2013/sa Bandar Al Sharida, „Saudi Arabia: Women take udi-arabien (veröffentlicht am 23. Mai 2014). step closer to municipal elections“, in: Asharq Al 9 N.N., „Tausend Peitschenhiebe für Menschen- Awsat, URL: rechtler“, in: Süddeutsche.de, URL: http://www.aawsat.net/2014/02/article5532913 http://www.sueddeutsche.de/panorama/saudi- 8 (veröffentlicht am 19. Februar 2014). arabien-tausend-peitschenhiebe-fuer-raif- 7 Schätzungen zufolge sind 55% aller Universi- badawi-wegen-islamkritik-1.1954914 (veröffent- tätsabsolventen weiblich und mittlerweile sind licht am 8. Mai 2014). 17,2% aller Frauen im Königreich erwerbstätig. 10 N.N., „Profile: Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud“, Vgl. dazu Sebastian Sohns, „Saudi-Arabiens Ar- in: Aljazeera, URL: beitsmarkt“, in: Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/201 46/2014, S. 30. 5/01/prince-salman-bin-abdul-aziz-al-saud- 3 Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. Experten gibt jedoch sein Gesundheitszu- aufzufangen, müsste die saudische Wirt- stand Anlass zur Sorge. Denn der neue Kö- schaft jährlich um über acht Prozent wach- REGIONALPROGRAMM nig scheint bereits nicht mehr bei bester sen und bis 2020 rund vier Millionen Jobs GOLF-STAATEN Gesundheit zu sein und soll, Beobachtern schaffen, was in Anbetracht gegenwärtiger RAHMA JANETZKE zufolge, mindestens einen Schlaganfall erlit- Wachstumsprognosen und einem fallenden DR. GIDON WINDECKER ten haben sowie an Demenz leiden.11 Den- Ölpreis jedoch utopisch erscheint.14 Vor die- noch kann man davon ausgehen, dass auch sem Hintergrund hat König Abdullah bei- 27. Januar 2015 Salman und sein Beraterstab die Zeichen spielslose Summen in die Ausbildung junger www.kas.de/rpg der Zeit verstanden haben und Abdullahs Saudis und die Förderung der wirtschaftli- vorsichtigen Kurs der inkrementellen Re- chen Teilhabe von Frauen investiert. Es ist formen fortführen werden. somit wenig überraschend, dass König Sal- man noch am selben Tag seiner Thronbe- Denn Saudi-Arabien steht vor großen wirt- steigung mitteilen ließ, dass er den wirt- schaftlichen und sozialen Herausforderun- schaftlichen Kurs seines Vorgängers fortzu- gen.
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