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Winnipeg Office Market Report 2018 Q4.Indd Research & Forecast Report WINNIPEG OFFICE MARKET Fourth Quarter 2018 Winnipeg Market Overview Summary Statistics Q4 2018 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 Trend Offi ce Inventory* 16,372,493 16,372,493 Market Overview The fourth quarter of 2018 saw the Winnipeg offi ce market Net Absorption -20,983 41,259 rebound after the introduction of 365,000 square feet of Vacancy Rate 10.9% 10.6% new AA supply in Q3, reporting 41,259 square feet of positive absorption. True North Square entered the market Average Asking Net Rent** $17.23 $16.97 favourably with its fourth major lease excuted at the end of 2018 Q4. The overall vacancy rate decreased from 10.9% Average Additional Rent $14.73 $14.33 to 10.6% with both Class A and C buildings out performing *Offi ce Inventory: For the purpose of this report, buildings with less than 10,000 SF of offi ce space the Class B sector. As the suburban market continues to have not been included in the offi ce inventory. There are 323 offi ce buildings surveyed which experience rising rental rates and scarcity of opportunities, collectively form the Colliers Offi ce Market Index. **Reporting Class A & B multi-tenant buildings. Average Asking Net Rent is calculated using a tenants are being forced to explore downtown availabilities. weighted average. Vacancy & Absorption from 6.1% to 6.8%, this asset class still remains in the The Winnipeg Class A market was active in the last quarter healthy range. Much of the increased vacancy is attributed of 2018 with a decrease in vacancy from 9.7% to 7.6%. to tenant consolidation and a recent trend to optimize the The positive absorption of 57,645 square feet in this class effi ciency of operations. When it comes time for renewal or was led by 201 Portage Avenue whose recent renovations relocation, tenants may consider shrinking their footprint and upcoming improvements proved to draw the attention or utilizing larger fl oor plates with less columns, and using of new tenants in 2018. Both Investors Group Inc. and tenant amenities such as common boardrooms or Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc. took two full fl oors conference centres. along with a number of other completed transactions with tenants scheduled to take possession in late 2019 and into The overall Class C offi ce vacancy decreased from 13.9% 2020. to 13.1% with almost 85% or 30,437 square feet of the total positive absorption taking place in the suburban market. The Class B market experienced a negative absorption of The Exchange District continues to be the leader for 52,756 square feet which was spread across a few towers Winnipeg’s downtown Class C supply, attracting a variety located in the downtown area. With an increase in vacancy of tenants seeking the brick and beam architecture. However with market availability, there are examples of historically Class C tenants looking at Class B space due to Historical Performance the amenities and quality of building systems that are 400,000 12.00% off ered. 350,000 300,000 10.00% 250,000 8.00% Asking Net Rent 200,000 150,000 6.00% Over the last quarter, the weighted net rental rate average 100,000 of both Winnipeg’s Class A and B offi ce market has 50,000 4.00% (%) Vacancy increased in the Downtown sector. With the introduction - 2.00% of Class AA net asking rates between $30.00-$32.00 per (50,000) Absorption New& Supply (SF) square foot, it is an example to the market of the cost (100,000) 0.00% of new, bright space, whether recently built or having undergone extensive renovations. With the cost of 2014 Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Q4 2015 Q2 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q4 2017 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 construction on the rise, tenants that demand this type of quality will have to pay the freight. New Supply Absorption Vacancy 2 Research & Forecast Report | Fourth Quarter 2018 | Winnipeg Offi ce Market | Colliers International Asking Net Rent Cont’d. The Class A rates continue to range between $16.00- $24.00 per square foot with a portion of the vacancy pulling down the weighted average to $20.49 per square foot. On a continuing trend, the gap between Class B Downtown and Class B Suburban rental rates has narrowed further with the weighted average of the Downtown market increasing to $15.56 per square foot at the end of 2018, while the Suburban sector decreased to $16.32 per square foot. With the broad range of quality in the Class C supply, it is challenging to provide comparables as some buildings have been redeveloped while others remain stagnant. The Class C market is holding steady with net rents between $9.00-$17.00 per square foot with a rise in the weighted average in the suburban sector to $14.33 per square foot. Forecast The growth of Winnipeg’s GDP is predicted to maintain its historical trend at a growth of 2.0% in 20191, just shy of the 10-year annual average of 2.2%. While this is down from the growth of 2.7% in 20182, this consistency lends to Winnipeg’s track record of stability which is attractive to both new entrants and existing companies that have grown roots and success here in the city. With the fi rst major introduction of new supply in the downtown Winnipeg offi ce market in decades, the vacancy rate, while increased, is on trend to recover with positive absorption only one quarter into the opening of True North Square and the fi rst tenant taking possession. As the focus on increasing tenant density downtown continues into 2019, there will be demand for further commercial amenities for residents of the area. This growth is evidenced in an expected increase of 3,070 new jobs this year, while the Conference Board of Canada is predicting a 1.9% growth or 8,160 new positions for 2019 and a positive average of 7,000 jobs every year between 2020 and 20223. In 2019, the Winnipeg offi ce market will provide tenants with a variety of opportunities, and while face rates will hold, tenant inducements will be favourable. 1&2Source for Winnipeg GDP Data: The Conference Board of Canada - Metropolitan Outlook 1: Economic Insights Into 13 Canadian Metropolitan Economies - Autumn 2018 - Winnipeg - Page 112. 3Source for Winnipeg Labour Market Data: The Conference Board of Canada - Metropolitan Outlook 1: Economic Insights Into 13 Canadian Metropolitan Economies - Autumn 2018 - Winnipeg - Page 114. 3 Research & Forecast Report | Fourth Quarter 2018 | Winnipeg Offi ce Market | Colliers International Downtown Winnipeg The evidence of investment into the Downtown market continues to be on display as 2018 comes to an end. While cranes are up at 300 Main Street and the new Inuit Art Gallery 3 (300 Memorial Boulevard), the ground is being prepared for the next two towers at the True North Square project. Meanwhile, 4 the sale of 252 Fort Street, a large surface parking lot in the middle of the downtown CBD, has closed. The momentum in 5 downtown has been steady for the year and has attracted a 2 few new tenants, while many large tenants have renewed and 1 reinvested in their downtown locations. Trends > Class A boasted its best quarter of 2018 with 57,645 square feet in positive absorption, while Class B had its largest loss with 51,315 square feet of negative absorption. > Overall asking rental rates are stable despite the added new space to the market by True North Square. > Re-investment continues with competitive landlords looking to refresh offi ce common areas, elevator cars, and lobbies. Notable Lease Notable Sale New Supply Summary Statistics Notable Lease Transactions Q4 2018 Winnipeg Downtown 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 Trend APPROXIMATE TENANT NAME - ADDRESS TYPE SIZE (SF) Offi ce Inventory* 11,899,861 11,899,861 Robertson College 1. Headlease 40,000 SF - 180 Main Street Net Absorption -39,586 12,263 Ceridian 2. Headlease 30,000 SF - 242 Hargrave Street Vacancy Rate 12.1% 12.0% G3 Canada Limited 3. Headlease 17,700 SF - 200 Portage Avenue Average Asking Net Rent** $17.35 $17.08 Skybridge Marketing Group 4. Headlease 15,000 SF - 355 Portage Avenue Average Additional Rent $15.55 $15.10 Notable Sale Transactions *Offi ce Inventory: For the purpose of this report, buildings with less than 10,000 SF of offi ce space have not been included in the offi ce inventory. There are 323 offi ce buildings surveyed which APPROXIMATE ADDRESS PRICE collectively form the Colliers Offi ce Market Index. SIZE (SF) **Reporting Class A & B multi-tenant buildings. Average Asking Net Rent is calculated using a There were no signifi cant sale transactions this quarter in the weighted average. Downtown submarket. Upcoming New Supply ADDRESS SIZE (SF) COMPLETION True North Square Tower 2 5. (Offi ce Space) 225 Carlton Street 37,200 SF 2019 180 Main Street, Winnipeg, MB 4 Research & Forecast Report | Fourth Quarter 2018 | Winnipeg Offi ce Market | Colliers International Suburban Winnipeg The Suburban market continues to show its strength with 4 28,996 square feet of positive absorption in the fourth quarter of 2018. With limited large block offi ce space opportunities available in this sector, large offi ce and smaller industrial 8 tenants fi nd themselves in competition against each other in the suburban fl ex space market allowing landlords the opportunity 3 1 2 to increase rates for improved space. In southwest Winnipeg, 5 in particular, offi ce users continue to force out traditional industrial users with their ability to pay rental rates that have even surpassed downtown asking prices.
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