1 Letters 2 3 Selection on reproductive plasticity in a wild population 4 of blue tits, Cyanistes caeruleus 5 6 Heung Ying Janet Chik1, Catalina Estrada1, Yiqing Wang1, Priyesha Vijendra1, Alex Lord1, 7 Julia Schroeder1 8 1Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot, SL5 7PY. 9 10 Corresponding author: Heung Ying Janet Chik <
[email protected]> 11 12 Running title: Blue tit reproductive plasticity 13 14 Keywords: Phenotypic plasticity, reaction norm, avian reproduction, quantitative genetics, 15 selection pressure, climate change 16 17 Abstract word count: 249 18 Total word count: 4,642 1 19 Abstract 20 In the plant-insect-insectivorous-bird system, changing climates can result in mis-timing in 21 bird reproduction, potentially impacting chick survival. To adapt to earlier prey emergence, 22 birds can make use of phenotypic plasticity, which can be characterized by reaction norms. 23 Despite gaining focus in research, studies on avian reproductive reaction norms as traits are 24 scarce, particularly on laying-date-budburst-date and clutch-size-laying-date reaction norms. 25 Here we examined the possibility of evolution of these two reaction norms from a quantitative 26 genetics viewpoint, and tested whether 1) there is among-individual variance in reaction 27 norms properties (intercept and slope); 2) there is selection on these reaction norm properties; 28 and 3) variances and selection pressures differ between the two reaction norms. Data of oak 29 (genus Quercus) budburst and blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) reproduction were collected from 30 a wild population for 18 years. We used bivariate random regression models with a Bayesian 31 approach to test for among-individual variance in reaction norm properties and their 32 covariance with fitness.