Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report

Project Number: TA 7890 April 2013

Bangladesh: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns (Finance by the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction)

This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and th e Gove rnment can not be held lia ble f or its contents. (Fo r p roject p reparatory techni cal assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design.

TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns (Financed by the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction)

FINAL REPORT Volume I Main Report

April 2013

TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

Document Final Report – TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Ref TA 7890-BAN Date 30 April 2013 Prepared by G. Srinivasan

Revision History Revision Revision Date Details Authorised

Name/Position Signature

Draft for submission to G. Srinivasan 1 30Jan2013 ADB//LGED (some Consultant Team sections incomplete) Leader

nd G. Srinivasan 2 Draft for submission 2 4 Feb 2013 Consultant Team to ADB LGED Leader 3rdnd Draft for G. Srinivasan 3 11 Mar 2013 submission to ADB Consultant Team LGED Leader G. Srinivasan 4 30 April 2013 Final Draft Consultant Team Leader

TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

Table of Contents 1. Introduction ...... 1 1.1. Background ...... 1 1.2. Study Objectives...... 1 1.3. Scope of Work ...... 1 1.4. About the project and PPTA to follow ...... 3 1.5. Organization of the report ...... 3 2. Context of the Coastal Towns ...... 5 2.1. Geographical context ...... 5 2.2. Hydro-geomorphology ...... 5 2.3. Socio-economic context ...... 8 2.4. Growth and development ...... 8 2.5. Unique climate risks – climate vulnerability ...... 9 2.6. Water supply, Drainage, Sanitation and Public Health ...... 12 2.7. Governance ...... 13 2.8. Review of coastal zone projects ...... 14 2.9. The Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience ...... 18 3. Approach and Methodology ...... 20 4. Climate Projections ...... 25 4.1. Climate Change scenarios ...... 25 4.2. Hydrodynamic modelling ...... 29 4.3. General Impacts on Urban Water Sector ...... 38 4.4. Summary ...... 41 5. The Pilot Pourashavas – Amtali, Galachipa and Pirojpur ...... 42 6. Amtali...... 45 6.1. Topography ...... 45 6.2. Land Use ...... 45 6.3. Socio-economic status...... 49 6.4. Consultations with local residents ...... 51 6.5. Current Infrastructure and Services ...... 53 6.6. Requirements to meet Gaps and Growth ...... 55 6.7. Impacts of climate change ...... 60 6.8. Climate Resilient Options ...... 64 6.9. Master Planning Process ...... 70 7. Galachipa ...... 72 7.1. Topography ...... 72 7.2. Land Use ...... 73 7.3. Socio-economic status...... 76 7.4. Consultations with local residents ...... 77

TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

7.5. Current Infrastructure and Services ...... 79 7.6. Requirements to meet Gaps and Growth ...... 80 7.7. Impacts of Climate Change ...... 83 7.8. Climate Resilient Options ...... 86 7.9. Master Planning Process ...... 90 8. Pirojpur ...... 92 8.1. Topography ...... 92 8.2. Land Use ...... 93 8.3. Socio-economic Status ...... 95 8.4. Consultations with local residents ...... 96 8.5. Current Infrastructure and Services ...... 97 8.6. Requirements to meet Gaps and Growth ...... 101 8.7. Impacts of climate change ...... 105 8.8. Climate Resilient Options ...... 111 8.9. Master Planning Process ...... 115 9. Options for Climate Resilience and their Financial Implications ...... 117 9.1. Introduction ...... 117 9.2. Recommendations for Adaptations to provide Climate Resilience Measures 117 9.4. Additional impact costs due to climate change: ...... 131 9.5. Cost Analysis for Recommended Options of Study Towns ...... 136 9.6. Infrastructure Evaluation by Year 2050 ...... 137 9.7. Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) ...... 139 9.8. Limitations of the analysis ...... 140 9.9. Financial and Economic Analysis ...... 140 10. Strengthening the Capacity and Awareness of Key Stakeholders ...... 144 10.1. National and Institutional ...... 144 10.2. In Pourashava ...... 144 11. Conclusions and Recommendations ...... 155 References ...... 163

TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

List of Tables

Table 2-1 Impact of climate change on land inundation classes in coastal zone Table 3-1 Basic Information of the Three Project Townships (Pourashavas) Table 4-1 Assessment of climate change over pilot Pourashavas Table 4-2 Estimated average change (%) in discharge Table 4-3 Climate Change induced tidal hydraulics in three coastal towns Table 4-4 Maximum surge level and inundation depth Table 4-5 List of storm surge levels under different sea-level rise conditions Table 4-6 Climate change impacts on Public health Table 5-1 Projected population estimates Table 6-1 Land use of Amtali Pourashava Table 6-2 Amtali 2011 Census data Table 6-3 Amtali Population prediction by Ward Table 6-4 Percentage distribution of Household income in Amtali Table 6-5 Literacy rates for Amtali Pourashava Table 6-6 Climate Vulnerability Matrix and Impacts assessed by FGD Table 6-7 Projected Amtali Service Coverage Table 6-8 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on water supply at Amtali Pourashava Table 6-9 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Urban Drainage in Amtali Pourashava Table 6-10 Options considered for climate resilience Table 7-1 Landuse of Galachipa Table 7-2 Galachipa census data 2011 Table 7-3 Galachipa population projection by ward Table 7-4 Climate Vulnerability Matrix and Impacts assessed by FGD Table 7-5 Projected Service Coverage in Galachipa Table 7-6 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on water supply at Galachipa Pourashava Table 7-7 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Urban Drainage in Galachipa Pourashava Table 8-1 Present Land use of Pirojpur Pourashava Table 8-2 Pirojpur census data 2011 Table 8-3 Pirojpur population projection to 2050 by Ward Table 8-4 Climate Vulnerability Matrix and Impacts assessed by FGD Table 8-5 Projected Service Coverage in Pirojpur Table 8-6 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Pirojpur Pourashava water supply Table 8-7 Typical variation of salinity in Gorai-Madhumati-Baleswar River System Table 8-8 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Urban Drainage in Pirojpur Pourashava Table 9-1 Climate Resilient Options for Flooding and Drainage Table 9-2 Climate Resilient Options Water Supply Table 9-3 Climate Resilient Options for Sanitation & Solid Waste Table 9-4 Monetary Value of Premature Death Table 9-5 Estimated total medical treatment costs Table 9-6 Cost of welfare and productivity losses Table 9-7 Cost of time savings for water supply Table 9-8 Cost for damaged houses Table 9-9 Repair cost for damaged houses in Cyclone Sidr Table 9-10 Cost for road damage caused by Cyclone Sidr Table 9-11 Total cost of impacts allocated to Sanitation Table 9-12 Impact of unsafe and inadequate water Table 9-13 Total cost of impacts allocated to Water Supply Table 9-14 Summary of flooding & drainage disaster impacts Table 9-15 Total annual damage costs for flooding and drainage problems Table 9-16 Sanitation Investment and recurrent cost

TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

Table 9-17 Audited Income Statement Water Unit of Pourashavas Table 9-18 Water Supply Investment and recurrent cost Table 9-19 Flooding & Drainage Investment and recurrent cost Table 9-20 Summary of Existing Infrastructure deficit in Pilot towns (Million Taka) Table 9-21 Summary of Existing Infrastructure deficit in Pilot towns (US $) Table 9-22 Total Cost by 2050 considering Climate Change Scenario without Adaptation measures (In Million) Table 9-23 Total Cost by 2050 considering Climate Change Scenario with Adaptation Measures (In Million) Table 9-24 Percentage Increase in Costs as a result of Climate Change with Adaptation Measures Table 9-25 Future situation (2050) considering climate change scenario without adaptation measures Table 9-26 Future situation (2050) considering climate change scenario with adaptation measures Table 9-27 Sensitivity Analysis- Costs Overrun by 20% under 2050 considering climate resilience scenario with adaptation measures Table 9-28 Overall Scenarios by 2050 Table 10-1 Summary of Capacity Building Activities Conducted during the course of the CDTA Table 11-1 Summary of Findings and Recommendations for Amtali Table 11-2 Summary of Findings and Recommendations for Galachipa Table 11-3 Summary of Findings and Recommendations for Pirojpur

TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

List of Figures

Figure 2-1 Digital Elevation of low relief of the South west and the central zones Figure 2-2 Salinity variations around the year at Hiron Point Figure 2-3 Exposed (green) and interior (blue) areas of the coastal zone Figure 2-4 Spatial distribution of types of floods in Bangladesh Figure 3-1 Location Map of the three Pilot Pourashavas Figure 3-2 Steps taken for implementation of the CDTA in the three coastal Pourashvas Figure 3-3 Components of the analysis framework used in the study Figure 4-1 GFDL CM 2.1 climate model (GCM) simulated summer monsoon rainfall Figure 4-2 Cyclone Tracks that have been considered and the inundation risk map generated for the coastal zone. Figure 4-3 Landward movement of equal salinity line for different sea level rise scenarios Figure 4-4 Salinity intrusion levels in present and future Figure 4-5 Preliminary delineation of deep low-As groundwater Figure 4-6 Generalised hydro geological section through south-central area of Bangladesh. Figure 4-7 Illustration of three modes** of salinisation of coastal aquifers in Bangladesh Figure 5-1 Rate of change in population by division Figure 6-1 Topographic Map for Amtali Pourashava showing critical Infrastructure Figure 6-2 Amtali land use Figure 6-3 Amtali Design Storm Inundation depths from Urban Drainage Model results Figure 6-4 Percentage of flood affected areas under different categories** in Amtali urban area for baseline and climate change conditions in 2050s. Figure 7-1 Topographic Map for Galachipa Pourashava showing critical Infrastructure Figure 7-2 Galachipa land use map Figure 8-1 Topographic Map for Pirojpur Pourashava showing critical Infrastructure Figure 8-2 Pirojpur land use map Figure 8-3 Drainage system modeled in the UDM set up for Pirojpur Pourashava Figure 8-4 Time-series of salinity of water sampled at Baleshwar River, Pirojpur Figure 8-5 Salinity Intrusion Map for the western coastal zone considering seas-level rise Figure 8-6 Flood inundated area in Pirojpur Pourashava: Base-line (top) climate change (2050) (bottom) Figure 8-7 Percentage of flood affected areas under different categories in Pirojpur urban area for baseline and climate change conditions in 2050s. Figure 9-1 Total Cost by 2050 considering Climate Change Scenario with Adaptation Measures Figure 9-2 Total cost by 2050 considering Climate Change Scenario without Adaptation Measures Figure 10-1 Process for developing a Municipal Adaptation Plan (MAP)

TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

Acronyms and abbreviations

ADB Asian Development Bank As Chemical symbol for Arsenic BAS Bengal Basin Aquifer System BBS Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics BDT Bangladesh Taka bgl below ground level BIWTA Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority BMD Bangladesh Meteorological Department BWDB Bangladesh Water Development Board BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka CDTA Capacity Development Technical Assistance CCSM Community Climate System Model CEGIS Centre For Environmental and Geographic information Services CEP Coastal Embankment Project CEIP Coastal Embankment Improvement Programme CEIP-1 Coastal Embankment Improvement Project, Phase 1 CGCM Coupled General Circulation Models Cl Chlorides CRIICZP Climate Resilient Infrastructure Improvement in Coastal Zone Project CRU Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK Climate Prediction Centre of National Center for Environmental CPC Prediction, USA CTIIP Coastal Towns Infrastructure Improvement Project DANIDA Danish International Development Agency DHTW Deep Hand Tube Wells DMF Design and Monitoring Framework DPHE Department of Public Health Engineering DUEO Dhaka University Earth Observatory DTW Deep Tube Wells EA Executive Agency EARF Environmental Assessment and Review Framework The Emergency 2007 Cyclone Recovery and Restoration Project (World ECRRP Bank) EIA Environmental Impact Assessment ECHAM European Community’s Hamburg Atmospheric Model FAO Food and Agriculture Organization Fe Chemical symbol for Iron FGD Focussed Group Discussions GBM Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river basins

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

GCM Global Climate Models GEF Global Environmental Facility GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, USA GIS Geographical Information System GOB Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IWFM Institute of Water and Flood Management IWM Institute of Water Modelling JFPD Japanese Fund for Poverty Reduction LGED Local Government Engineering Department lpcd litres per capita per day (units to express water consumption) MIS Management Information System MoP Ministry of Planning MPI-M Max Planck Institute for Meteorology NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research NCEP National Center for Environmental Prediction, USA NGO Non Government Organisation O&M Operation and Maintenance OHT Over Head Tank PDA Project Design Advance PDO Program Development Office pH Measure of alkalinity / acidity “power of Hydrogen” PMO Project Management Office PPCR Pilot Program for Climate Resilience PPTA Project Preparatory Technical Assistance PRA Poverty Reduction Assessment PSF Pond Sand Filter PSMP Power System Master Plan PTW Production Tube Well PWD Public Works Datum RCM Regional Climate Model RCP Representative Concentration Pathway Regional Climate Model developed by Abdus Salam International Centre RegCM for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy RSF River Sand Filter RSWP Reserved Surface Water Ponds RW Ring Well SCF Strategic Climate Fund SHTW Shallow Hand Tube Well SLR Sea level rise

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

SP Structure Plan SPCR Strategic Program for Climate Resilience SST Sea Surface Temperature STWSSP Secondary Town Water Supply and Sanitation Project lead by DANIDA SWMM Storm Water Management Model SWTP Surface Water Treatment Plant TA Technical Assistance TNA Training Needs Assessment Thana Nirbahi Officer (Now TNO converted/shifted to UNO – Upazila TNO Nirbahi Officer) TOR Terms of Reference TPP Technical Assistance Project Proposal TTC/E Coli Triphenyltetrazolium chloride/ Escherichia coli UDM Urban Drainage Model UHC Upazila Health Complex UTIDP Upazila Towns Infrastructure Development Project UNDP United Nations Development Programme WAP Ward Action Plan WARPO Water Resources Planning Organization WB World Bank

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

List of persons met

Ministry of LGRD & Cooperatives 1. Dr. Swapan Kumar Sarker, Director General, Planning, LGD 2. Mr. Md. Abdur Rouf, Deputy Chief (Planning), LGD

Ministry of Planning 3. Md Zahirul Islam PhD, PCMU Emergency Cyclone Recovery and Restoration Project (ECRRP) 4. Dr Md ShahJahan Ali Khandakar Director 5. Abdur Razzak Ex-Joint Chief Consultant

BWDB 6. Ruhul Mollah, ADG Planning 7. Salim, Chief Planning 8. Iqbal, PD ECRRP 9. Md. Sarafat Hossain Khan , SE/Director, Planning-1 and PD CEIP 10. Director, Ground Water Circle 11. Dr Anowar Zahid, Deputy Direcor, Ground Water Circle and Deputy PD, Coastal Ground Water Circle 12. Abu Bakar PD Ganges barrage FS 13. Dr Azizur TL Ganges Barrage Consultancy 14. Engr. Nurul Islam Talukdar DTL Sidr Rehabilitation Project 15. XEN Pirojpur 16. SDE Pirojpur

LGED 17. Mr. Md. Wahidur Rahman, Chief Engineer 18. Addtl. Chief Engineer UM, 19. Mr. Md. Abdus Shaheed, Additional Chief Engineer (Integrated Water Resources Management), 20. Mr. Md. Nurullah, Superintending Engineer, Urban, 21. Mr. Iftekhar Ahmed, Superintending Engineer, Planning 22. Mr. Md. Abul Bashar, TA Coordinator for CDTA 23. Mr Latifur Rahman, Project Director, Rural Infra Coast 24. Team Leader, Rural Infra Coast 25. Deputy TL, Rural Infra Coast 26. Project Director Cyclone Shelter, ECRRP 27. Sharful Islam Senior AE Focal point IDB FAEL Khaer Cyclone Shelter 28. PD District Town Master Planning Project 29. PD Upajila Town Master Planning Project 30. Urban Planner District Town Master Planning Project 31. Urban Planner Upajila Town Master Planning Project

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

32. Pirojpur Upazila Engineer 33. Amtali Upazila Engineer

Sheltec consultant 34. MD

DPHE 35. Nuruzzaman, CE 36. Mr. Md. Wali Ullah, Superintending Engineer, Feasibility Study and Design Circle 37. Mr Ibrahim Superintending Engineer 38. Engr. Monowar Ali Superintending Engineer planning 39. Mr Kaiyum, Planning 40. Patuakhali Executive Engineer 41. Pirojpur XEN

CDMP 42. Abdul Latif Khan, Disaster Response Management Specialist 43. Md. Liakath Ali Climate Change Adaptation Specialist 44. Mohd. Shahadt Hossain Mahmud, PhD Rural Risk Reduction Specialist 45. Shantana Rani Halder, PhD Monitoring & Evaluation Specialist 46. Mohammad Mohiuddin Community Risk Assessment Analyst 47. Md. Shahidul Islam GIS Mapping Analyst

DUEO 48. Syed Humayun Akhter PhD Seismology and Geodesy Division, Department of Geology, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, BANGLADESH

WARPO 49. Director General 50. Director Planning 51. PSO, WR, 52. PSO, NWRD

IWM 53. Dr Monowar Hossain Executive Director 54. Engr. Abu Saleh Khan Deputy Executive Director 55. Engr. SM Mahbubur Rahman, Director WRP

CEGIS 56. Executive Director 57. Dr. M. H. Sarker, Deputy Executive Director 58. Dr Ahmedul Hassan Director

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

BETS 59. Managing Director

KS Consultant 60. Managing Director 61. Hafizur Rahman Director

DDC 62. Managing Director 63. Director WRE

ADB 64. Norio Saito Principal Urban Development Specialist SAUW 65. R. Slangen Urban Development Specialist, SAUW 66. R. Islam (Senior Project Officer, BRM

Pirojpur Municipality 67. Mayor and all the councillor and officials and local stakeholders

Amtali Municipality 68. Mayor and all the councillor and officials and local stakeholders

Galachipa Municipality 69. Mayor and all the councillor and officials and local stakeholders

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

Acknowledgments

The project team of TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns gratefully acknowledges the support given by the Asian Development Bank during preparation of project activities and deliverables, in particular from Mr. Norio Saito, Mission Leader, ADB Manila and Bangladesh Resident Mission for providing useful suggestions and encouragement during the preparation of the project document. Also, the support received from Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction is gratefully acknowledged. The Team would also like to thank Mr. Ron H. Slangen, Urban Development Specialist, ADB Manila and Mr. Md. Rafiqul Islam, Senior Project Officer, Bangladesh Resident Mission for their constructive comments.

The project team is also thankful to Md Wahidur Rahman, Chief Engineer LGED and Md. Abul Bashar, Project Director, LGED for providing information, suggestions and logistic support. In addition, significant contributions to this project and this report were made by the IWFM, BUET team led by Prof. Saiful Islam through their work on the Urban Drainage Modelling which is appreciated.

The help rendered by LGED Executive Engineers, Pourashava Mayors, Councillors and engineers, Pourashavas office staff, local government officials, DPHE engineers and local people and other stakeholders during the field visits and workshops is also thankfully acknowledged.

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

Executive Summary

Bangladesh has made good progress in major economic and social areas despite several challenges. It is important to insulate this progress from the adverse impacts of climate change, as environmental vulnerability poses one of the major threats. With constrained availability of land, the rising trend of population living in urban areas is expected to continue making it imperative for the government to ensure planned growth and provide basic services to these emerging population foci. Geographically, the coastal zone of Bangladesh represents one of most vulnerable areas from the perspective of future projections of climate change. Both, predicted rise in sea-levels and enhanced monsoon rainfalls, are likely to amplify the existing threats from tidal flooding and severe cyclonic storms. Actions to reduce these climate risks need to bring together strategies from Climate Change Adaption and Disaster Risk Reduction, translating them into interventions, particularly at rungs of governance directly interfaced with the communities. Government of Bangladesh and its development partners have recognized these issues and have been formulating plans and policies to address the issues in the coastal urban areas of the country.

A Strategic Program for Climate Resilience (SPCR) prepared by Bangladesh was approved under the Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR) in November 2010. The Coastal Towns Infrastructure Improvement Project (CTIIP) identified by the SPCR and mentioned in the ADB’s 2011-2013 country operations business plan for Bangladesh has great relevance. The present project taken up within the CTIIP initiative is an ADB Capacity Development Technical Assistance (CDTA) project for strengthening capacity to develop climate-resilient urban water supply, drainage, and sanitation projects in coastal towns. Scope of the project included assessment of Climate Change Scenarios in selected coastal towns; assessment of impacts on the water, drainage and sanitation sector caused by climate change; identification of structural and other options to strengthen climate resilience; and strengthen the capacity and awareness of key stakeholders regarding climate change. Its results will be used to guide the linked project preparatory technical assistance (PPTA) to prepare a feasibility study incorporating preliminary engineering designs that would further help the Project Design Advance (PDA) team to make detailed designs for implementation of urban infrastructure projects.

The geomorphology of coastal Bangladesh is characterized by the enormous discharge of water laden with sediments from a vast network of rivers. The gently sloping wide continental shelf, strong tidal action and frequent landfall of tropical cyclones make the coastal zone rivers very dynamic in their morphology. These conditions also sustain a vibrant variety of livelihoods with its diversity of natural resources that support agriculture, fisheries, shrimp farming, forest products and salt and other minerals extraction. As a large proportion of the water comes from the area of the GBM basin outside the national boundaries during the four months of the monsoon season; climate change and variations over this larger region is as critical as, or more so than what happens over Bangladesh. Tidal effects, land subsidence and salinity intrusion are the other compounding factors that make the coastal zone more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The lower rate of population growth in the coastal zone seems to bear signatures of repeated damage to lives and property of extreme climate events. The exposed coast consists of administrative land units facing the sea and the interior coast is made of townships situated in the tidal rivers so that they are partially sheltered. The coastal towns where the project sought to build climate resilience are set in this context.

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The urban areas in the coastal zone are currently faced with several natural and developmental constraints. There is considerable concern in the Bangladesh government about future climate change impacts aggravating this situation into a chronic negative spiral (NAPA, MoEF, 2005). The Coastal Development Strategy (CSD, 2006) of Bangladesh Government identifies actions to address the specific concerns like provision of safe drinking water and safety from natural and man-made hazards. Climate risks include frequent flooding due to heavy rainfall and tidal flux, exposure to devastating tropical cyclones and linked impacts on river water salinity. Some of the persistent problems of the coastal zone towns or Pourashavas have been provisioning of drinking water, water-logging due to drainage congestion and the connected problems of sanitation and public health. Despite significant improvement in disaster management these area still run the risk of prolonged flooding from storm surges in the future. As all these issues have a strong climate linkage, they are likely to get impacted by climate change and can be ideal candidates to start building climate-resilient options.

The Pourashavas in the coastal zone have developed significantly over the last few decades and now have electricity supplies and water supplies in their central core areas. Most coastal Pourashavas have also been connected to the road network. There have also been significant changes in governance with the Pourashava administrations taking responsibility for the provision of services to their local populations. In most Pourashavas, there were very significant increases in populations in the decade 1991 to 2001. For many Pourashavas this rate of population increase was not maintained in the decade 2001 to 2011. This was due to a number of factors ranging from Government of Bangladesh interventions to lower the birth rate, drift to the main cities and also as an effect of natural disasters such as Cyclones Sidr and Aila.

For the coastal zone, in-line with the GoB strategies, significant amount of work has been undertaken by the Integrated Coastal Zone Management Project (ICZMP) of Water Resources Planning Organization (WARPO). More recently, considerable efforts have been made by the Emergency Cyclone Rehabilitation and Restoration Project (ECRRP) by World Bank and Emergency Disaster Damage Rehabilitation Project by ADB, the Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP I & II) and with Coastal Embankment Improvement Programme (CEIP). The Secondary Towns Water Supply and Sanitation Project undertaken by GoB and ADB focused on increasing the water supply system.

The approach of the study was to focus on few pilot coastal urban townships (Pourashavas) to draw conclusions to enable strengthening resilience of the urban water supply, drainage, and sanitation to climate change. Conceptually the study followed a two-stage approach. Firstly, the study attempted to assess both the present day situation (baseline) and deficits to meet current needs of the community, including those triggered by current climate extremes. The second stage examined future growth and development needs, including measures required to adapt to climate change impacts, in the identified project townships. The Pilot Pourashavas selected based on consultations with LGED were Amtali, Galachipa and Pirojpur. They were perceived as most vulnerable and at-risk towns due to climate change and natural disasters where other development planning processes like the preparation of Urban Master Plans were underway.

The study followed the sequence of steps with the first step was to undertake an exhaustive review of ongoing, planned and completed projects relevant to the scope of the present project and the study area. Then baseline status of urban drainage, water supply and sanitation in the project towns were established. Subsequent steps involved assessment of climate change scenarios and their impacts. These results were then used to identify and quantify the needs for

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report climate resilient options over and above the business as usual requirements to meet growth and development. Awareness raising and capacity building activities were undertaken throughout the course of the project duration.

The climate component involved establishing the current baseline climate over the area of relevance that spanned three levels – the whole Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin, whole of Bangladesh and the southern coastal zone. Baseline climate was characterized using global and observed data from stations in the coastal zone. Climate change scenarios from Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the IPCC AR4 genre and more recent versions being employed for the next IPCC assessment reports were used for projecting rainfall changes over the GBM basin. For projecting climate change in the 2030s and 2050s time horizons over the project location, dynamically downscaled results from two Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were used. Temperature and rainfall changes were assessed mainly for a range of three emission scenarios. For assessing long-term changes in tropical cyclones peer-reviewed published material was used. Global sea-level rise for scenarios representing low, medium and high cases were used.

Results available from hydrodynamic models from several recently completed and on-going projects have provided substantial secondary information that enabled a fair characterization of the river flows and salinity situation in the project area. For flood management, water supply and drainage computations for the three Pourashavas results from these modelling exercises were analyzed to derive hydrodynamic conditions. These results include river or tidal creeks water levels, and salinity intrusion levels and surge extent for the baseline and projected climate change scenarios. Urban Drainage Model (UDM) was set by the IWFM, BUET using Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). This is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff for design storm conditions under current observed climate and for future projected rainfall scenarios for each of the three Pourashavas. These results were rendered though GIS to provide inundation patterns under existing storm drainage systems. This UDM set-up was used to consider improved drainage designs in the Pilot Pourashavas.

Observed temperatures are increasing over the whole GBM basin and over Bangladesh. Based on historical data the current temperature trend over the country including the southern coastal areas is estimated to be about 1°C/100 years. Analysis of past rainfall data shows the year-to- year variability of the monsoon rainfall to be dominant at all space scales ranging from the whole GBM basin to individual station rainfall series. There is some evidence of increasing tendency of extreme 1-day rainfall.

Future climate change projections from ECHAM and GFDL GCMs, dynamically downscaled over Bangladesh using RCMs under high emission scenarios show an increase in maximum temperature of 1.5 to 4 degrees Celsius by 2050s; and a rainfall increase of about 10-15% by 2050s during the monsoon season over the southern coastal region. The second RCM also demonstrated similar projections results with higher increases in rainfall amounts. There were no clear indications about the frequency or intensity of severe cyclonic storms over the Bengal basin. Temperature and rainfall changes are fairly uniform over the coastal zone. This was based on conclusions of the recent IPCC, 2012 report on extremes and recent research publications.

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

The global sea-level projections show an increase ranging from 6 cm, for the 2030s for a low emission scenario, to 62 cm by the end of the century for the high emission scenario. Simulations of the future trans-boundary inflows of the three major rivers (Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna) indicate that increased basin precipitation will result in increased inflows into Bangladesh during the monsoon period. Increased flows in the major rivers are estimated to translate into enhanced average discharges in the distributaries flowing along the townships during the monsoon season. In the coastal areas including the pilot project Pourashavas, one of the main concerns linked to sea-level rise is due to potential changes in the tidal extent, duration and frequencies. Water level is expected to rise by about 6 cm by 2030 and 12-14 cm by 2050 in the rivers near the Pourashavas, based on a historical trend of 4 mm/yr rise induced by global sea-level rise. These water levels in the rivers need to be considered along with projected global sea-level rise scenarios. Storm-surge extremes associated with severe tropical cyclones are major threat to the project locations. To assess the climate change impact on extreme storm surge levels in the vicinity of the project Pourashavas, hydrodynamic model results based on two future sea-level rise scenarios along with an assumption of 10% increase in the maximum wind speed of future cyclones were used. The results showed a 10% and 25% increase in extreme surge heights, for 32 cm SLR and 50 cm SLR respectively.

Water Supply: In general, the whole Pourashava population has access to some source of drinking water with about 60% getting it from piped water supply and standpipes in the vicinity of their residence. However, only 33-37 % of households have piped water connection. Amtali and Galachipa currently rely on deep aquifers (375-380 meters bgl) as a source of municipal water supply. In both these Pourashavas the deep aquifers were assessed to run a very low risk from salinity intrusion. For Amtali and Galachipa Pourashavas, the study found the water source from deep groundwater aquifers to be sustainable in terms of meeting the drinking water needs up to year 2050, including considerations of additional demands of both population growth and potential enhanced demands due to climate change induced temperature increase. However it must be recognized that deep aquifers in the coastal zone of Bangladesh are a valuable resource from the geological past. As they are presently not fully mapped over the whole coastal zone because of their highly heterogeneous nature, it is imperative to tap this resource with great care. Monitoring and management will be necessary to ensure that water abstraction in such towns remains within sustainable levels, and minimizes the risk of saline intrusion in the production wells. Pirojpur is currently using surface water from Baleswar River as ground water is predominantly saline from shallow to deep levels. Available data and results do not indicate increase in salinity outside the limits set for drinking water standards even during the lean flow season. Existing SWTP and proposed additional capacity is sufficient to meet the domestic water supply needs of Pirojpur Pourashava up to year 2050 considering population growth and enhanced demands due to increasing temperatures.

There is a substantial current deficit in the water supply infrastructure that needs to be met in all the three Pourashavas. To meet the population growth and provide near 100% service coverage the Pourashavas have to increase their water production by 300 to 400% of the current production. Climate change additional demands will be only about 10% more. The study has proposed options to meet these targets through additional water supply infrastructure like Production Tube Wells, Surface Water Treatment Plant, Over Head Tanks and pipelines that need to be installed. Climate change impact on water supply services of the Pourashava is assessed on each of the four broad components viz. water source, distribution, infrastructure (water production) and consumption (demand side). Climate resilient options include additional

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report water storage structures, securing water production facilities from flood inundation, encouraging rainwater harvesting and installing tube wells above flood inundations levels and in higher floors in cyclone shelters. Soft measures like better management of the water supply system like systematic billing and collection, financial management, programmes to sensitise the community regarding safe and economical water use and hygiene have been suggested.

Drainage and flood control: Drainage systems in the three Pourashavas studied are as yet unplanned and under developed. Mostly the coastal Pourashava drainage network consists of set of natural Khals or canals that were part of the extensive coastal river system around which habitation developed. UDM results showed that various sections of these natural canals in all the three Pourashavas are overtopped for design storm conditions. This is due to extensive encroachment, restricted outflows, blockage due to dumping of solid waste and siltation. Even under the baseline situation almost 90% of each ward of the Pourashava is inundated. UDM results indicate that excavation of the channels and creation of new drains shall improve the situation. However these quantitative results are not robust as the modelling undertaken represents only a limited percentage of the area of each Pourashava, and does not consider the rudimentary primary and secondary drainage systems. Increasing the cross-sections of main drainage and implementation of the primary and secondary drainage systems as proposed in the Urban Master Plans can alleviate flooding in both current climate and future climate change scenarios.

Polder embankments around Pourashavas have been severely damaged during the storm surges resulting from Cyclones Sidr and Alia. Some of this construction was likely to be taken up by the World Bank funded “Emergency 2007 Cyclone Recovery and Restoration Project (ECRRP)” being executed by the BWDB. Re-excavating drainage canals, increase the height of flood and road embankments, operation and maintenance of drainage infrastructure, improved river outfalls, more cross-culverts and securing important infrastructure so that they remain above flood levels are some of the interventions proposed. Non-structural interventions like improved flood warnings that could reach out to all sections of the community, flood zoning and preservation of water retention areas, awareness building about climate risks and improving Building Codes to incorporate climate resilience have been recommended.

Sanitation and Public Health: The considerable efforts over the last few years by the Government, the Municipality and NGO’s have proved highly effective, as approximately 95% of households now have adequate sanitation. There are continuous efforts to provide the remaining 5% with sanitation, but it has proven difficult. Current problems of inadequate sanitation get aggravated in flood conditions and climate change is likely to push this further. Septic tank effluent is discharged to drains. Sludge removal from septic tanks and a solid waste management system, including identification of dumping ground site have been recommended.

Baseline information revealed that prevalent diseases are either water borne or water related. The incidence of diarrhoea, dysentery and jaundice were high. Other water related diseases included worm infections and skin diseases. This establishes a clear linkage with occurrences of water borne and water related diseases, and poor water and sanitation services and personal hygienic practices in the town. During periods of flooding, drinking water sources are affected and contaminated as the piped network and hand pump tube wells become submerged. Consequently, the communities suffer from water-sanitation related diseases. Ensure adequate staff in health centres, data about disease incidences, and awareness programmes about climate impacts on health are suggested for consideration.

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The whole range of options was also considered from the point of view of their effectiveness, urgency, associated costs and benefits together with social acceptability. The infrastructure deficits in each town were then evaluated for conditions prevailing in 2050 ignoring the effect of climate change. The infrastructure deficit was then re-evaluated considering the impact of climate change again for the 2050 scenario. Under the joint influence of rising sea-levels and increasing rainfall amounts future climate change significantly impacts the drainage and flooding problems in coastal Pourashavas. Therefore the additional costs involved in considering climate change impacts are highest for the drainage component. The cost additionality is the lowest for Sanitation as the infrastructural costs are less to begin with. Maximum damages are inflicted by extreme events like cyclonic storms. The risks to the water sector infrastructure, as well as the whole Pourashava are quite high from such events. The infrastructural and non-structural interventions recommended are such that they will enable climate proofing with respect to low intensity frequent events on one hand, will reduce the impact and allow better response and recovery to high-impact rare events.

Costs and Benefits: The majority of the investment required is to remove the current infrastructure deficit. The existing water supply networks only supply a small proportion of the population. Flooding is frequent, and drainage in all of the Pourashavas is inadequate resulting in water-logged conditions during both heavy rainfall events and surge associated with cyclones. Such conditions pose further threat to the already inadequate sanitation facilities, which in turn lead to health impacts. It is clear from the CDTA findings that climate change will add to these existing problems that stem from infrastructural deficits. Therefore, any improvement made to address present infrastructural deficits will build resilience to future climate change too. Under such circumstances, it is difficult to demarcate costs that could be explicitly termed as due to climate change. Any attempt to do so will remain subjective to a lesser or greater extent, depending on a particular context. However, as costs of climate change are important for planning infrastructural investments, this study made an attempt to estimate costs induced by climate change. The estimations are presented in the tables below. These estimates are to be taken as rough assessments at a pre-feasibility level.

Cost Analysis for the CDTA townships

Present/Baseline 2050s Business as usual: 2050s Climate Change: Current Deficits No actions taken to adapt considering costs for or build resilience to implementing (all costs in USD) climate change adaptation options

Amtali

Water Supply 411,538 3,822,821 458,974

Drainage & Flood 9,227,372* 9,227,372* 1,363,404 Control

Sanitation & Solid 538,462** 538, 462** 196,154 waste Management

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

Galachipa

Water supply 426,282 3,729,103 458,974

Drainage & Flood 5,581,321* 5,581,321* 934,615 control

Sanitation & Solid 1,230,789** 1,230,789** 448,718 Waste Management

Pirojpur

Water Supply 465,385 13,435,128 650,000

Drainage & Flood 14,056,154* 14,056,154* 1,712,897 Control

Sanitation & Solid 1,961,538** 1,961,538** 730,769 Waste Management * these figures are same because there is insignificant change anticipated due to further population growth or land-use changes. This is considering a situation after addressed the current deficits that are large. **these figures are same because addressing current deficits will take care of the requirements until almost 2050s.

Economic analysis indicates that the project is economically viable, with significant economic and social benefits to the community in the project areas that are severely underserved with respect to access to safe water and sanitation facilities. In addition, drainage and flood management measures will protect the community from current vagaries of extreme climate events as well as potential threats of future climate change. The project would be well justified on the basis of direct benefits to an estimated around 100,000 inhabitants of the locality. With estimated population increase of 2.36% per annum, the number of direct beneficiaries will be over 200,000 in the 30 years of expected project life.

Water supply, sanitation and drainage and flood control sub-components are analyzed to estimate the economic viability for the scenarios: (i) Future Situation without climate resilient adaptation measures; and (ii) Future Situation with climate resilient adaptation measures.

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Future Situation without climate resilient adaptation measures by 20501 Options BCR EIRR NPV (BDT mio) Water Supply (Profit Centre) 7.60 12.09% 23 Sanitation (Cost Centre) 18.80 27.54% 609 Drainage and Flood Management 9.95 17.60% 1,505 (Cost Centre)

Future Situation with climate resilient adaptation measures by 2050 Options BCR EIRR NPV (BDT mio) Water Supply (Profit Centre) 8.38 13.38% 389 Sanitation (Cost Centre) 36.71 46.36% 1,981 Drainage and Flood Management 34.92 44.49% 12,025 (Cost Centre)

The above scenarios indicate that EIRRs are higher than the opportunity cost (12%) and relatively small incremental cost is associated with upgrading for future climate resilience. Present value for net returns and cost benefit ratios are significantly high for all scenarios.

Sensitivity Analysis- Costs2 Overrun by 20% under 2050 Climate Change Scenario NPV Options BCR EIRR (BDT Mio) Water Supply (Profit Centre) 7.39 12.19% 60

Sanitation(Cost Centre) 30.59 39.97% 1,907 Drainage and Flood Management(Cost 29.10 38.41% 11,546 Centre)

Sensitivity analysis indicates that all subcomponents analyzed are robust with respect to negative changes in investment cost, construction and maintenance cost including land acquisition cost.

Steps to build capacity in climate resilience situations will enhance the knowledge and skills of government staff as well as local communities enabling them to better respond to climate impacts on infrastructure and livelihoods. The project will, in particular, benefit women through engaging them in other opportunities, like: skills training and participation in infrastructure planning, decision-making, and construction and maintenance (through indulge themselves in project civil works). These efforts will enable them to improve and enhance their incomes and quality of life.

1 BCR, EIRR and NPV refer to Benefit Cost Ratio, Economic Internal Rate of Return and Net Present Value respectively 2Costs refer to investment cost including land acquisition cost and recurrent e cost

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Capacity Building: Capacity building has been the integral part of the project. Strengthening capacity of the focal points of these bodies is crucial so that programs would be planned centrally but executed through the concerned line ministries and agencies within an integrated planning and management framework. During the course of the CDTA implementation there were two major workshops conducted at the national level involving stakeholders from key government departments and agencies. Particular emphasis was on having working group discussions that put together Pourashava representatives and representatives from National agencies. As both climate science and its applications are continually evolving and so are the technologies and relative ability of the community to absorb them, capacity building in climate resilience is seen as ongoing process. Recommendation for future capacity building include establishment of regular dialogues in which new technologies and research findings could be shared with stakeholders and effective climate resilient infrastructure is implemented though a consultative process that has access to credible information.

The project is a challenging endeavour as it tries to connect the consequences of global climate change to location specific climate resilient infrastructure building. In terms of a technical assistance it has been able to identify a process that connects the global to local, and establish a sequence of practical steps that can be replicated to provide direction to plan adaptive actions to face adverse climate change.

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1. Introduction

1.1. Background 1. A low-lying riverine geography combined with a growing costal population make Bangladesh’s coastal towns extremely vulnerable to climate extremes and possible impacts of future climate change. Out of the numerous issues linked to the socio-economy of rapid urbanization of Bangladesh’s coastal towns, the water supply, drainage and sanitation infrastructure is perhaps the most critical element to the well being of communities. 2. The Government of Bangladesh, as well as many development agencies have recognized these issues and have been formulating plans and policies to address the issues of water in the coastal urban areas of the country. The present project is set in this context, and the main outcome expected from this ADB Capacity Development Technical Assistance (CDTA) project is “strengthened capacity in the Government of Bangladesh to develop climate-resilient urban water supply, drainage, and sanitation projects in coastal towns.” (ADB, 2011). 1.2. Study Objectives  To assess the impacts of climate change on urban water supply, sanitation, drainage systems, water availability and salinity.  To recommend practical and effective options for the location of water-intake works, the appropriate design of drainage systems, urban wastewater discharge and the location of sanitation infrastructure.  To identify structural and other options, and prioritize them in a participatory manner  To enhance the capacity of relevant central and local government to better adapt to climate change

1.3. Scope of Work 3. The scope of works as defined in the Terms of Reference (TOR) is:

1.3.1 Assessment of Climate Change Scenarios in Selected Coastal Towns 4. Collect data related to hydrometeorology (river and sea levels, river flow, rainfall, cyclone frequency and intensity, storm surges, river and urban flooding, temperature, groundwater extraction, etc.), water salinity and the outputs of various modelling results and analyses in the target area. Review and assess projections of future water withdrawal upstream. Utilize reliable secondary data as much as possible and, where such data are not available, take the direct measurements necessary to develop and calibrate models. 5. Assess plausible climate scenarios (sea level rise, increased intensity of rainfall and cyclones, storm surges, etc.) for 2030 and 2050. While analyzing the data and simulation results available, including the scenarios prepared in the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, make the best professional judgment in assessing future climate scenarios. Prepare at least two scenarios.

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

1.3.2 Assessment of Impacts on the Water, Drainage and Sanitation Sector Caused by Climate Change 6. Collect available data and review the status of existing structures and future plans for extending and/or upgrading water supply, drainage, sanitation and sewerage structures. Data to be collected can include the type, location and capacity of water supply, drainage and wastewater-treatment assets; water service coverage; and coverage of sewage disposal and sanitation systems. 7. Collect available socioeconomic and physical data. Socioeconomic data to be collected include population density; population trends; the location of slums; damage caused by past extreme weather events; and those related to public health, such as the incidence of disease related to extreme weather events, such as waterborne diseases. Data to be collected on physical characteristics include topography, land use, and land subsidence. Collect historical and projected data and, where data are insufficient, take actual measurements as needed. 8. Review urban land-use plans, policies, and current local practices for coping with climate variability and extreme weather events, such as early warning systems and evacuation planning. 9. Simulate the hydrology of urban watersheds and determine flooding, salinity and other impacts using climate scenarios identified for 2030 and 2050 in paragraph. 5 above. Based on the modelling results regarding water availability, water salinity, extent of flooding, and location of sanitation, assess social and economic impacts on water supply, sanitation, and sewage and drainage systems, both qualitatively and quantitatively, including their public health implications and impacts on the poor. The results of model estimations for the calibration period will be crosschecked with past data to justify and document the robustness of the models. In connection to the urban water sector, other urban infrastructure, e.g. embankments, bus/truck terminals, community centres, flood control structures, and cyclone shelters, etc., should be considered. 10. Prepare a digital map of the assessment results using geographic information system (GIS) technology. The GIS-based digital map will show flooded areas and duration, salinity intrusion, and other impacts of climate change under various model results.

1.3.3 Identification of Structural and Other Options 11. On the bases of assessments in Section 1.3.2, identify structural and other adaptation options for strengthening resilience, focusing on water supply, drainage and sanitation. Provide options on the bases of a review and analysis of international best practices and proposed potential adaptation interventions such as the implementation of protection measures, changes in land use, emergency response mechanisms and strengthening the regulatory framework. Consider, for example, relocating the intake of the proposed water-treatment plant, assessing the abstracted volume of groundwater, optimizing the design of drainage systems, and selecting the location of sanitation facilities. Review groundwater and surface resources based on existing data. 12. Make a preliminary assessment of the feasibility of each option, with due consideration of effectiveness, urgency, associated benefits and costs, and social acceptability and identify the agencies responsible for implementation. Analyze the pros and cons of each proposed intervention and preferred options through a participatory approach.

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

13. Integrate priority actions into the designs of future projects funded by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), in particular the Coastal Towns Infrastructure Improvement Project, and of other government development projects and policy actions. Assist in identifying other sources of funding for implementing priority actions.

1.3.4 Strengthening the Capacity and Awareness of Key Stakeholders Regarding Climate Change 14. Plan and conduct training programs and workshops for key stakeholders to raise awareness of and develop skills for better adapting to climate change. Disseminate information on TA implementation to relevant central and local government departments and agencies, communities, the private sector, and development partners. To ensure effective participation, conduct workshops at least once in selected coastal towns and twice in Dhaka. Training programs will target mainly key central and local government officials to improve their capacity for assessing and responding to climate change impacts and risks. 15. Provide recommendations for further capacity-building and awareness–raising programs. Capacity-building programs undertaken during the TA will be evaluated, and future programs to be carried out during the implementation of priority actions will be prepared. 16. Extract lessons from TA implementation and provide recommendations for scaling up and replicating in other areas in Bangladesh and other countries. Assess the study approach, efficiency, output and limitations. 1.4. About the project and PPTA to follow 17. The CDTA 7890 to Bangladesh was approved by ADB on 18 October 2011 with an amount of $700,000, financed on a grant basis by the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction. The implementing government department LGED is providing support in the form of counterpart staff, office space and supplies, and workshop venues. The outcome of the TA will be strengthened capacity in the government to develop climate-resilient urban water, drainage, and sanitation projects in coastal towns. Its results will be used as guidance for the project preparatory technical assistance (PPTA). The Coastal Towns Infrastructure Improvement Project (CTIIP) was identified under the PPCR and ADB’s 2011-2013 country operations business plan for Bangladesh. With the implementation of the project, it is aimed to climate- proof future investment projects on urban water supply, drainage, and sanitation. The TA will recommend practical and effective options for the location of water-intake works, the appropriate design of drainage systems, urban wastewater discharge, and the location of sanitation infrastructure. Structural and other options will be identified in the TA and prioritized in a participatory manner. The output of the TA will be reflected in the design of this future project and other government interventions. The PPTA will use these recommendations to prepare a feasibility study incorporating preliminary engineering designs that would further help the Project Design Advance (PDA) team to make detailed designs for implementation of urban infrastructure projects. 1.5. Organization of the report 18. The report starts with a general introduction of the project background followed by a detailed description of the context of the coastal zone Pourashavas and common aspects of their status with respect to water supply; health and sanitation; drainage and flood control. Many of these common aspects can be taken to any coastal zone Pourashava and easily transposed to its specific context. Third Chapter briefly describes the approach and steps

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report followed by the study. Chapter 4 gives details of the climate projections. The three Pilot Pourashavas are introduced with an overview in Chapter 5, followed by summary chapters on each of them (Chapters 6 to 8). These summary chapters include detailed descriptions of each Pourashava’s profile and current infrastructure and services; assessment of climate impacts on water supply, sanitation, and urban drainage systems; and identified climate resilient adaptation options. Chapter 9 focuses on evaluation and prioritization of adaptation options including economic and financial analyses. The next Chapter 10 summarizes capacity building and awareness raising programs conducted during the course of the CDTA. The concluding section of the main report presents excerpts of the findings including other findings and identifiable best practices that could useful in replication and refinement of such studies in future. This section (Chapter 11) also presents recommendations from the CDTA, trying to summarize them in a clear manner that could serve as reference for further work. A volume of Annexes compiles the details of each component of the study in ten annexes (Annex I - X).

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

2. Context of the Coastal Towns

2.1. Geographical context 19. Coastal zone of Bangladesh lies within the tropical zone between 21-23° N and 89-93° E. The deltaic coast of Bangladesh is about 700 km long and can be broadly divided into three regions: eastern, central, and the stable western region. This coastal area of Bangladesh encompasses a vast area of about 47,201km2 consisting of 23,935 km2 of exposed coast and an almost equal area of “interior” coast. It is characterized by an extensive network of rivers covering an area of 9,380 km2; a large number of islands between channels; the funnel shaped northern part of the Bay of Bengal; huge amount of sediment transportation (annually about 2.4 billion tons), low relief (1.2-4.5 m above mean sea level) and exposure to severe tropical cyclones (Figure 2-1). Estimates of total sediment vary: Holeman (1968) estimated the total annual average sediment load in the Jamuna and Ganges rivers as 2.4 billion ton based on data from 1874-1879, other studies provided estimates of annual average sediment load in the Jamuna and Ganges rivers that varied between 1 to 1.1 billion tons (ADB, 2010).

Figure 2-1 Digital Elevation of low relief of the South west and the central zones (Source: CEGIS, 2006) 2.2. Hydro-geomorphology 20. A vast network of rivers, with an enormous discharge of water heavily laden with sediments, both suspended and siltation load characterize the coastal geo-morphology of Bangladesh. The gently sloping wide continental shelf, strong tidal action and frequent landfall

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report of tropical cyclones make the coastal zone rivers very dynamic in their morphology. For the rivers of the southern coast, the upstream conditions are also very critical. 21. The coastal area includes the delta region of the Ganges-Padma and the estuary of the lower Meghna, with its numerous islands. Although the coastline has changed little along the western part, it has accreted on the seaward island shores to the east. Apart from the Sundarbans, and plantations on new accreted land, the coastal and estuarine areas have been cleared for agriculture, and are heavily populated. The coastal zone also has at least 185 identified islands and chars with an increasing population. 22. To provide flood protection for agriculture, a series of coastal embankments were constructed in the 1960s and 1970s under the Coastal Embankment Project (CEP). The CEP polders provided the means to enhance crop production through security from flooding, saline intrusion and soil leaching. However as discussed later, these polders prevent silt deposition on the land resulting in increased water-logging and flooding.

2.2.1 Tidal effects 23. Costal zones are characterized by daily water level fluctuations that correspond to incoming and outgoing water flows from the sea. This perpetual water movement is the driving force behind physical processes such as erosion and accretion, salinity intrusion and drainage congestion that influence all activities in the coastal zone. The tidal characteristics along the coast of the Bay of Bengal are semi-diurnal with a tidal period of approximately 12.5 hours. Generally, more than ten estuaries along the coast of the Bay of Bengal allow tidal action to enter around 170 km inland. The biggest estuary is the Shahabazpur channel, 12-16 km wide, at the mouth of the Lower Meghna River. The majority of the upstream freshwater flow is running through this channel with a 1 m tidal effect at Chandpur, 136 km upstream of its mouth, during the dry season. Another important estuary is Pussur, much used by the ocean-going vessels and inland craft, which has a width of 1.5 km. All estuaries are oriented in the north- south direction with numerous cross-connecting channels generally aligned in the east-west direction. The presence of these cross-connecting channels permits the interchange of saline water between the estuaries.

2.2.2 Land Subsidence 24. Typical of most deltaic regions, the delta suffers from long-term subsidence. Major areas of subsidence are the Surma basin, the Faridpur trough, Chalan Beel, the Dhaka depression and the Khulna-Sundarbans area. Calculated values of subsidence range from 0.6 mm/year to 5.5 mm/year but may exceed 20 mm/year in the central part of the Surma basin (MPO 1985). While evidence of recent uplift is difficult to find, geodetic levelling over the Shillong Plateau shows a rise of 2.5 cm over the period 1910-1977, equivalent to an annual uplift rate of 0.37 mm/year. 25. Evidence of subsidence of geologic strata should not be construed as a general lowering of the land surface. It is a natural process in areas of unconsolidated sediments; it reflects the gradual compaction of deeply buried sediments in response to overburden pressure. Generally, equilibrium exists between sediment supplied to the surface and subsidence, so that land levels do not significantly change. Large scale flood control and drainage (FCD) schemes or river diversion can interrupt sediment supply, while extensive groundwater withdrawals could significantly reduce subsurface groundwater pressure, leading to increased vertical compaction of sediments. Large declines in groundwater levels have taken place beneath Dhaka city, but there is insufficient data to determine if it has led to significant subsidence.

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

26. Dhaka University Earth Observatory (DUEO) in collaboration with Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, New York has installed a network of 20 continuous geodetic GPS in Bangladesh to monitor the 3-D crustal motion and to study crustal dynamics and earthquake hazards. Four GPS stations were installed between 2003 and 2007in the coastal region with three more to be installed soon. Although with this short period of data, it is not possible to make confident estimates of subsidence for the coastal zone, preliminary analysis of data from Khulna, Patuakhali and Raipur shows subsidence of 2 to 10 mm per year. In the Khulna study (ADB, 2010) the Khulna area was estimated to be subsiding by about 9.55 mm/year. These are however, initial findings and need to be examined more thoroughly to assess subsidence in the whole coastal zone.

2.2.3 Salinity 27. The key governing factors regarding intrusion of salinity in the tidal rivers are:  salinity conditions at the river entrance along the coast of the Bay of Bengal,  transport dispersion processes,  upstream freshwater discharges and storage volumes and their distribution processes in the river system. 28. Usually the salinity level in the tidal rivers of the southwest region increases steadily from December through to March, reaching a maximum in April/May following the trend of the Ganges flow. During the monsoon, the enormous volume of freshwater discharging into the Bay through Meghna Estuary decreases the salinity level along the coastline and Bay. As a result, the western part of the coast experiences a much higher salinity level than the eastern part. During the dry season, the freshwater flow decreases and consequently the salinity level along the coast increases. Rahman and Bhattacharya (2006) estimate the northward salinity intrusion in the dry season to be about 150 km inland in the lower Meghna in the southeast and up to 290 km up the Passur River in the southwest. Figure 2-2 below shows the typical higher levels of salinity intrusion during the dry summer months (March – May) in many of the coastal townships of Bangladesh. The threshold for drinking water in Bangladesh is about 1000 mg/L, which is the standard for coastal regions (BWDB, 2012; DPHE, 2005).

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

Figure 2-2 Salinity variations around the year at Hiron Point (Source: BWDB, Ganga Barrage Report, 2012)

2.3. Socio-economic context 29. The coastal zone of Bangladesh sustains livelihoods of people with its diversity of natural resources that support agriculture, fisheries, shrimp farming, forest products and salt and other minerals extraction. Repeated damage to human lives and property due to extreme climate events have resulted in widespread poverty; restrained institutional industrial development, and loss of cultivable land and agricultural production. The total population in the coastal zone (19 districts3) was around 36.8 million in the 2001 census, with 8.5 million living in urban areas - representing 23% of the coastal population and 28% of country’s urban population (WARPO, 2005). Out of this coastal urban population almost 56% live in Chittagong and Khulna. WARPO (2005) has estimated future coastal population to be around 60.8 million by 2050 assuming a growth rate of 3.0% in 2015 declining to about 2.0% by 2050. The percentages of extremely poor and absolute poor in the coastal zone are higher that the respective national averages. 2.4. Growth and development 30. Government’s pragmatic steps would lead rapid urbanization in the study towns. At present, the population growth rate in the urban areas4 is around 3.5% (Banks et al., 2011), although the overall population growth rate in the country is only 1.34% (BBS, 2011). In other words, the high urban population growth rate in Bangladesh is the product of natural population growth and a high rate of rural-urban migration. It is expected that given this trend, by 2025, more than 50% of the population of Bangladesh will be concentrated in the urban areas. Important factors that lead to urbanization are:  Males dominate the urban population, since they are generally the first to migrate,

3 Bagerhat, Barguna, Barisal, Bhola, Chandpur, Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar, Feni, Gopalganj, Jessore, Jhalokati, Khulna, Lakshmipur, Narail, Noakhali, Patuakhali, Pirojpur, Satkhira and Shariatpur 4 There is wide disparity in the annual urban population growth rates, with cities like Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet growing at 4-5%, while Barisal, Khulna and Rangpur have 2-3% (LGED, 2011b).

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leaving women and children behind; 3.1.1 Setting  The rural-urban migration is propelled more by “push” and “pull” factors. Push

factors are poverty, social ostracism, lack of gainful employment, abandonment of The coastal area of Bangladesh includes a vast area of about 47 201 square kilometres the family by the main head earner etc. affecting poor men, women and children in consistingthe of rural 23 935 areas. square On kilometres the other of hand, exposed pull coast factors and are 23 266 better of “interior” prospects coast. for housing, The upazillas exposededucation, coast consists employment of administrative and medical land facilities units ( in the urban) facing areas, the sea. attracting The interior the rural coast is richmade and up the of middleupazillas classes; situated in the tidal rivers so that they are partially sheltered (Figure 2). This area houses about 30 million people. The coast of Bangladesh has multiple 31. vulnerabilities. Urbanization Seventyin the conditions major cyclones of Bangladesh have hit the means coastal a largebelt during informal the sector;past 200 slums; years. highlyIn inadequate1991 a major and cyclone unplanned affected infrastructure 13.7 million development people caus ing (in 138 terms 882 of deaths. roads, During sanitation, a similar water supplycyclone and drainage). in 1997, due to better disaster preparedness and effective coordination by the government, only 134 deaths occurred (BCAS 2001). Destructive floods are regular. 2.5. Unique climate risks – climate vulnerability 32. Historically, The exposed accreted coast land consists (chars ) of in administrative the lower reaches land of unitsthe Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (Upazilas) facing the sea. The interiorriver coastsystem is was made colonized up of by Upazilas people who situated were highly in the a dapted tidal rivers to living so i thatn the theydynamic are d partiallyelta. shelteredThey cultivated(Figure 2-3 rice). This in the area rich houses alluvial about soil. 30 These million settlements people. The were coast exposed of Bangladesh to salinity has multipleintrusion, vulnerabilities. frequent hurricanes, Seventy cyclones major cyclones and seasonal have floods. hit the Any coastal savings belt from during one thegood past year 200 years.were In rapidly1991 a exhausted major cyclone in rebuilding affected after 13.7 a stormmillion or people flood. Lifecausing was harsh138 882 and deaths.short. Life During on a similarpresent cyclone day charsin 1997, is v ividlydue to reminiscent better disaster of the preparednessconditions that andexisted effective in the pastcoordination (Sarkar et byal. the government,2003). only 134 deaths occurred (BCAS 2001). Destructive floods are a regular occurrence.

Figure 2. The coastal zone of Bangladesh showing the exposed and interior coasts Figure 2-3 Exposed (green) and interior (blue) areas of the coastal zone (Source: PDO-CZMP) (Source: PDO-CZMP)

3.1.2 Polderization

Starting in the 1960s the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) invested in the transformation of the physical geography of settlements in the coastal area to enable increased output from rain- AECOMfed rice Asia cultivation. Co. Ltd. The alteration of physical 9 geography resulted in the formation of a Aprilpolder 2013 “… an area surrounded by watersheds where the water level is artificially controlled” (De Ven 1993). The BWDB implemented the process, with international support, which included

25 TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

2.5.1 Flooding 33. Flooding occurs when the amount of runoff originating over a watershed exceeds the carrying capacity of natural or constructed drainage system. A combination of factors, exacerbated by Bangladesh’s extremely low flat topography, result in frequent flooding episode. These factors are:  Increased flows in the rivers due to active monsoon conditions in the river basins both within and outside the country.  Enhanced discharge in rivers due to localized heavy rainfall, particularly in the hilly areas in the eastern and northern parts of the country.  Inundation within poldered (embanked or dike-protected) areas due to inadequate drainage capacity to cope with local rainfall or higher levels of outfall of rivers.  Backwater effect caused by the rising water levels along the Bay of Bengal coast due to south-westerly monsoon winds and high tides. 34. As flooding is a normal occurrence in many parts of the country during the monsoon season, two kinds of floods are traditionally recognized (Khalequzzaman, 2000) – annual floods (barsha) that regularly inundate low-lands and are considered beneficial for agriculture as well as to maintain the health of the delta; and the other low frequency high impact causing damage and destruction like in years 1993, 1998 and 1999 (bonna). 35. Causes of catastrophic floods are suggested to be coincidence of peak flows of major rivers, reduction of river flow capacities due to closure of tributary channels by silt sedimentation, barriers to drainage due to unplanned construction, increased peak flood flows in downstream areas due to embankments upstream and increased flow due to deforestation in catchment areas. 36. The coastal zone is low-lying with 62% of the land have an elevation less than 3m and 86% less than 5m (Hasan et. al., 2009) . Figure 2-4 shows the general spatial distribution of flooding types. The coastal area is prone to tidal flooding where future climate risks like sea- level rise will pose additional problems.

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Figure 2-4 Spatial distribution of types of floods in Bangladesh (Source: Ahmad et al., 2001) 37. Only when upland flows from the major rivers are severe, the coastal area near the sea does not get affected. But the severe river flood of the year 1998 impacted the coastal area as well, when more than 65% of the area of the country was inundated. Severe flooding due upland flow is linked to enhanced rainfall over the whole GBM catchment resulting in concomitant rise in discharge in all the three major rivers. Under such circumstances, even the southernmost coastal areas covering the project Pourashava’s experience flooding. The La Nina – southwest monsoon link plays a very important role here. The list of years with such major flooding in the past are 1954, 1955, 1956, 1962, 1968, 1970, 1971, 1974, 1984, 1988, 1998, 1999 and 2000; and all but two of these years were La Nina years (D'Aleo and Grube, 2002). 38. In the monsoon season the coastal area are impacted by both enhanced tides and increased discharge in the rivers. An impact assessment of climate change and sea-level rise on monsoon flooding has been carried out (DoE, 2009) which covers two coastal districts viz.

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

Barisal and Satkhira. The study using a combination of hydrodynamic models, projected global sea-level rise and climate change scenarios estimated changes inundation patterns. Results of the impact of climate change on flooding are summarised in Table 2-1. Table 2-1 Impact of climate change on land inundation classes in coastal zone Flood category Area District 2 (km ) F0 F1 F2 F3 < 30 cm 30 – 90 cm 90-180 cm > 180 cm Inundation in 2005 35.9 121.5 392.3 1844.4 Satkhira 3858.3 Inundation in 2040 27.7 127.7 216.0 2064.0 % Increase -22.8 5.9 -44.9 11.9 Inundation in 2005 117.6 975.3 749.4 78.1 Barisal 2790.5 Inundation in 2040 66.2 658.8 1161.8 126.2 % Increase -43.7 -32.5 55.0 61.5 (Source: DoE, CCC, 2009) 39. With climate change induced higher tidal levels and enhanced monsoon rainfall, land area under higher flood depth categories increase in both the representative districts of the coastal zone as presented in the table. 2.6. Water supply, Drainage, Sanitation and Public Health 40. Availability of fresh water is a constraint and a constant concern to people living in the coastal zone. This factor is exacerbated in townships with growing population. Drinking water is mainly derived from ponds and shallow wells tapping shallow groundwater, which becomes unfit for use when it turns brackish during the dry season. Deep groundwater wells (reaching more than 200m depth) are the main source. About 50,000 to 60,000 deep tubewells, both hand-pump tubewells and production wells for piped water supply to rural townships serve the population. Coastal Development Strategy (CSD, 2006) of Bangladesh Government identifies lack of safe drinking water as a major concern. 41. Water supply based on shallow groundwater, which were earlier quite popular in coastal areas, started suffering from a number of severe problems including arsenic contamination, lowering of the water table and salinity and non-availability of suitable aquifers. 42. Inundation by storm surges strikes also damages the water sources and supply. The turbid and saline surge water contaminates ponds in the affected area. Surge water also deteriorates the quality of the shallow tube well water. Saline water goes through the suction pipe and contaminates the water in the aquifer (Sikder and Salehin, 2010). After every cyclone strike, the population of the coastal area suffer a severe deficiency of safe drinking water, many times leading to outbreaks of diarrheal diseases. The World Bank reported in 2010 that deep groundwater sources also run a risk from reoccurring exposure to storm surge in the longer term however this has not occurred to date and is thought to be of a low risk with proper management. All abandoned and unused deep tube wells must be sealed. 43. As per national water policy, BWDB implement all the major and medium water development projects while LGED implement all the minor flood control, drainage and irrigation projects. From inception to date, BWDB have implemented over 658 projects.

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

2.7. Governance 44. The Bangladesh Census Commission classifies urban centers in the country using a combination of population size and administrative or governance structure. The Commission has classified the urban centers into four categories - the Megacity, Statistical Metropolitan Areas (SMAs), Pourashavas and Other Urban Areas (Islam, 2012). 45. This project focuses on three coastal urban centres falling into the Pourashava category. The government gazette notification of March, 1992, reclassified Pourashavas into three categories based on their annual average revenue income in a three-year period. Pourashava Class “A” with over Tk. 10 million; Class “B” with minimum Tk. 8 million; and Class “C” with minimum Tk. 6 million. 46. The public office of the Pourashavas is democratically elected by the civic community as per the Local Government (Pourashava) Act, 2009. Box 2.1 below shows the departments and sections within the Pourashava office along with their responsibilities. The Act also lists the functions under two categories, namely, “Mandatory Functions” and “Discretionary Functions”. 47. According to the Local Government (Pourashava) Act, 2009, the number of ward commissioners is fixed in every municipality irrespective of its area and population. The Municipality consists of one Mayor, nine ward commissioners (general) and three ward commissioners of reserve seats, a total of thirteen representatives. 48. As per the Act, nine wards committees have been constituted with maximum 10 members wherein 40% are stipulated to be women. The Councilor is also designated to be Chairperson of the ward committee. They are endowed with the functions of maintenance of sanitation, water supply and drainage, street lighting, roads, markets, parks and playgrounds and school buildings. They also review the revenue collection, prepare a draft annual budget, and send it to the council for incorporation in the annual budget. 49. The Mayor chairs the Council meetings, and is responsible for the overall, supervision and control of the administrative functions of the Pourashava. The Council is composed of all elected councilors. The administration of the Pourashava is vested with the Council. The term of office of the council is five years. The Pourashava through the Council has all the powers, authority and responsibilities of the Local Government, to enable it to function as an institution of self-government in respect of the matters entrusted to it. The Panel Mayor presides over the Council meetings during the absence of the Mayor. The Secretary of the Pourashava is an officer appointed by the Local Government Ministry. 50. The Disaster Management Act introduced by the Government of Bangladesh in 2008 has lead to the creation of Disaster Management Committees at Pourashava level to deliver emergency response operations. This Committee’s responsibilities include preparation of community risk assessments and disaster risk education plans; ensure community awareness about long term risks of climate change and adaptation to its adverse effects.

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Box 2.1 Responsibilities of important departments/sections of Pourashavas Engineering Department Water supply and sanitation Construction and maintenance of roads, drain and other public work General Administration Department Manages staff postings and transfers Defines staff duties and responsibilities Prepares administration reports Ensures proper communication between the departments and the Council Accounts Section Manages finances Monitors the use of allocated funds for different schemes Formulates long term and short term budget Advises Pourashava on all internal financial matters Maintains records of financial receipts and expenditure, internal audit of all bills for payment and audit clearances Prepares annual financial statements and the Demand Collection and Balance Statement Assessment Section Assesses all taxes including holding tax of the Pourashava Tax collection /license section Collects taxes such as, property tax, advertisement tax and entertainment tax Issues notices for recovery of tax Monitors revenue collections of the Pourashava Pourashava Market Section 2.7.1 GovernmentManages Control markets over including the Pourashavas rent, lease under the Pourashava ownership 51. Urban local governments are controlled by the central government. They do not enjoy Health, Family Planning and Cleaning Department adequate political, administrative or financial autonomy. For example, they cannot themselves employ high-level staff,Conservancy as these areservices recruited and appointed by the Local Government Division (LGD) under the MinistrySanitation of Local facilities Government, Rural Development, and Cooperatives. Within the Urban Local Government,Solid waste administrative management authority is with the Mayor. Due to the shortage of funds urban local governmentsOther public health are duties largely dependent on the government grants and hence have to work as per government directives. By legal provision the local government division can supersede an elected body and appoint an administrator in certain conditions. 2.8. Review of coastal zone projects

2.8.1 The Emergency 2007 Cyclone Recovery and Restoration Project 52. After the 15 November 2007, Cyclone Sidr, a Joint Damage, Loss and Needs Assessment (JDLNA) recommended the institution of an integrated, multi-pronged approach for the

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report economic recovery of the affected areas. This would assist in the reconstruction of destroyed physical assets, ensure the rehabilitation and protection of the most vulnerable members of society, and resume the socio-economic development of the affected regions. Emergency 2007 Cyclone Sidr Recovery and Restoration Project (ECRRP) had been formulated to provide critical medium to long-term recovery and restoration assistance to the cyclone hit areas especially the 13 coastal districts in the southwest Bangladesh. 53. The project development objective (PDO) is to support Government of Bangladesh (GOB) efforts to facilitate recovery from the damage to livelihoods and infrastructure caused by Cyclone Sidr and to build long-term preparedness through strengthened disaster risk management. The expected outcomes to be achieved with the project are:  Restoration of agricultural sector and livelihood.  Rehabilitation of critical damaged infrastructures and  Strengthen long term capacity for disaster risk management and reduction. 54. Project Components, Project Implementing Agencies & Project Districts: ECRRP is designed such that its PDO will be achieved through the implementation of six project components, as follows: Component A: Recovery of Agriculture Sector and Improvement Program The primary implementing agency for this component is Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in coordination with the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), and the Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock (MoFL). Project Location: Barisal, Jhalokathi, Pirojpur, Bagerhat, Barguna & Patuakhali (13 UZs). Component B: Reconstruction and Improvement of Multipurpose Shelters The Ministry of Local Governments, Cooperatives and Rural Development (MLGCRD), through the Local Government Engineering Department (LGED), is implementing this component. Project Location: Barisal, Jhalokathi, Pirojpur, Bagerhat, Barguna, Patuakhali, Khulna, Satkhira & Bhola (63 UZs). Component C: Rehabilitation of Coastal Embankments The implementing agency for this component is the Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR) through the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB).Project Location: Pirojpur, Barguna & Patuakhali (10 UZs - 30 Polders) Component D: Long-Term Disaster Risk Management Program The Ministry of Food and Disaster Management (MoFDM), through the Disaster Management Bureau (DMB), is implementing sub-component D.1. Sub-component D.2 is being implemented by BWDB while sub-component D.3 by LGED. Project Location: Barisal, Pirojpur, Bagerhat, Barguna, Patuakhali, Khulna, Satkhira, Bhola, Laxmipur, Noakhali, Feni & Chittagong (35 UZs) Component E: Monitoring and Evaluation of Project Impact The Ministry of Planning (MoP), through the Project Coordination and Monitoring Unit (PCMU), is implementing this component. Component F: Project Management: (Sub-component F1), Consulting Services (F2), Strategic Studies (F3), Technical Assistance and Training (F4), and Emergency Support for Future Disasters (F5).

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2.8.2 Coastal Embankment Improvement Programme (CEIP)

55. The Technical Feasibility Studies and Detailed Design for Coastal Embankment Improvement Programme (CEIP), Bangladesh Water Development Board is a major study in the Coastal zone. 56. It is well recognized that infrastructural interventions in the coastal areas by embankments and Cyclone shelters have significantly reduced its vulnerability to natural disasters at least partially and thus the poor people have some assurance of safety to their lives and crops. However, some effectiveness of the infrastructures in most cases has been compromised through poor and inadequate maintenance and sometimes by shifting the embankments towards country sides. With the occurrence of the frequent storms in the recent period, the Coastal Embankment Systems (CES) has weakened and calls for systematic restoration and upgrading. 57. After cyclone SIDR struck the coastal area causing severe damage to the infrastructure lives and properties of the coastal belt, the Government of Bangladesh (GOB) obtained an DA/credit for Emergency Cyclone Recovery and Restoration Project (ECRRP, 2007). Proceeds from this credit would be used to meet the expenses for preparation of the proposed Coastal Embankment Improvement Project, Phase-1 (CEIP-1). 58. It had been appreciated that undertaking the rehabilitation of coastal embankment system under one or two localized projects will not bring any convincing change in such a vast area. To resolve this multi-dimensional problem a strategic approach in the name of Coastal Embankment Improvement Programme (CEIP) was felt necessary. It incorporates a longer- term perspective in a programme spread over a period of 15-20 years, composed of at least 3-4 sub-phases including Emergency Cyclone Recovery and Restoration Project (ECRRP), which was setup after Cyclone Sidr, and its relevance was further emphasised by Cyclone Aila. 59. The purpose of the CEIP project is to prepare the strategic plan for coastal embankment improvement program and for carrying out the detail feasibility study for the first program covered in CEIP-1 for reconstruction and upgrading of coastal embankments, at a cost of about US$ 300 million. This is about 25% of the tentative estimated cost of rehabilitation of the whole project under CEIP. The project will include detail design, preparation of tender documents and implementation program for rehabilitation of judiciously selected extremely vulnerable polders at a cost of US$50-75 million.

2.8.3 Salinity Intrusion in Groundwater in the Coastal Area of Bangladesh 60. The Establishment of Monitoring Network and Mathematical Model Study to Assess Salinity Intrusion in Groundwater in the Coastal Area of Bangladesh due to Climate Change has three studies taken up under that project  “Package 1: Mathematical Modelling Study to Assess Upazila wise Surface Water and Groundwater Resources and Changes in Groundwater Level due to Withdrawal of Groundwater at the Pilot Areas”,  “Package 2: Mathematical Modelling Study on Saline Water Intrusion to Assess Salinity Intrusion, Salinity Level, Sea Level Rise due to Climate change, Movement of Salinity & Development of Management Information System (MIS)” and  “Package-3: Hydro-geological Study & Mathematical Modelling to identify Sites for installation of Observation Well Nests, Selection of model Boundary, Supervision of

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

Pumping Test, Slug test, Assessment of Different Hydro-geological Parameters, Collection and Conduct Chemical Analysis of Surface Water and Groundwater”. 61. The assessment of groundwater as well as surface water resources has been conducted through mathematical modelling for the two pilot areas of coastal belt of Bangladesh. Two pilot areas have been considered for model study based on different uses of groundwater. 62. Pilot area 1 spreads over Bakerganj Upazila of Barisal district, PatuakhaliSadar, Mirzaganj, Dasmina, Galachipa, Kalapara and BauphalUpazila of Patuakhali district, Bhandaria and Mathbaria Upazila of Pirozpur district, Bargunasadar, Bamna, Betagi, Amtali and Patharghata Upazila of Barguna district and Kathalia Upazila of Jhalokathi district. 63. Pilot area 2 lies within Anwara, Chandanais, Patiya, Boalkhali, Chittagong Sadar, Panchlaish, Double Mooring, Chittagong Port, Rangunia and RawjanUpazila of Chittagong district and is characterized by withdrawal of huge quantity of groundwater for industrial and Chittagong city water supplies. 64. The study for assessing the salinity intrusion in groundwater and also surface water will be conducted with two sub–models for pilot area–1 and one sub–model for the pilot area–2. The models will be developed, calibrated and validated, with the Final Report due in June 2013

2.8.4 Secondary Towns Water Supply and Sanitation Sector Project 65. This study undertaken by the GoB and ADB between August 2006 to June 2012 had 4 principal objectives:  To increase the water supply coverage up to 90% from the present coverage of 29% (average) by the year 2015 with an additional inclusion of 19.48 lakh people under water supply system;  To increase the sanitation coverage from 74% to 100% by the year 2010 confirming to the GOB commitment-"Sanitation for all by 2010".  Improved capacity of secondary towns to plan, implement, operate, manage, maintain and finance water supply and sanitation investments  Improve capacity of DPHE to plan, design, supervise, monitor and provide technical assistance to local water utilities and sanitation units

2.8.5 Groundwater Management and Technical Project Proposal (TPP) 66. The Groundwater Management and TPP for Survey, Investigation and Feasibility study in Upazila and Growth Centre Level Pourashava having no Piped Water Supply System operated between July 2007 and June 2011 and had the following objectives:  To identify safe water source with regard to chemical especially arsenic contamination;  To conduct a feasibility study for determining ground/surface source to establish the quality of water as well as to ensure it was a perennial source;  Determine water demand and level of services and formulate design criteria to satisfy the basic needs;  Prepare a master plan for each town for water supply, sanitation and drainage

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issues;  Carry out economic and financial analysis to determine the affordability of the beneficiaries and formulation of cost recovery mechanism including tariff strategy  Prepare investment project(s) by involving concerned stake holders;  Prepare environmental impact assessment of the propose project(s);  Undertake Mathematical modelling for water sources for drinking water supply,  Carry out a Socio-Economic survey,  Undertake a detail engineering survey, investigation and engineering design, the project had a truck mounted high capacity drilling rig.

2.8.6 Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme 67. This project is in two phases: Phase I from 2003 to 2009 and Phase II from 2010 to 2014. CDMP I has significantly contributed among others to the establishment and implementation of a national disaster management legislative framework. It has;  mainstreamed DRR in PRSP I and II and also in the DPP Format  established a learning and development network with 22 public training and academic institutions  undertaken capacity development of about 30,000 DMC members at local level;  identified risks and vulnerabilities and preparing the risk reduction action plans for 622 vulnerable unions;  implemented a total of 562 small scale risk reduction projects under LDRRF benefiting 600,000 people living in 381 Unions of 11 districts;  undertaken climate change capacity building and earthquake preparedness for Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet city corporations,  raised tsunami preparedness for 10 coastal districts; and establishing disaster management information networks with 64 district and 235 Upazila headquarters.  CDMP covered our CDTA focus districts Pirojpur, Borguna and Patuakhali.

2.9. The Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience 68. The Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR) of the Strategic Climate Funds (SCF) established under the Multi-donor Climate Investment Funds (CIF) aims to help countries transform to a climate resilient development path, consistent with poverty reduction and sustainable development goals. The PPCR will complement, yet go beyond, currently available adaptation financing in providing finance for programmatic approaches to mainstream climate resilience into development planning, core development policies, and strategies. In this context, it is important to note that the PPCR is designed to catalyse a transformational shift from the “business as usual” sector-by-sector and project-by-project approaches to climate resilience. PPCR will promote a participatory approach towards development of a broad-based strategy to achieving climate resilience at the national level in the medium and long-term. 69. The Government of Bangladesh prepared its Strategic Program for Climate Resilience with assistance from ADB, the World Bank, and the International Finance Corporation. The

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report program was approved by the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) steering committee with a funding of $50 million in grant resources and $60 million in concessional loans. The ADB component of the PPCR is $21 million in grant finance, $50 million in concessionary loans, and $215 million in loans from the Asian Development Fund. The Coastal Towns Infrastructure Improvement Project has been selected as a component of the PPCR. Similarly ADB’s country operations business plan for Bangladesh, 2011–2013 also identifies the Coastal Towns Infrastructure Improvement Project, for implementation in 2013.

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

3. Approach and Methodology 70. Conceptually the study followed a two-stage approach. Firstly, the study attempted to assess both the present day situation (baseline) and deficits to meet current needs of the community, including those triggered by current climate extremes. The second stage examined future growth and development needs, including measures required to adapt to climate change impacts, in the identified project townships. The two stages can be visualized as at four distinct situations that needed to be considered: i. Current situation of each Pourashava, ii. Deficits and the urban infrastructure required under current socio-economic conditions to mitigate current climate risks, iii. Level of urban infrastructure needed to meet future growth and socio-economic condition without climate change, iv. Level of urban infrastructure needed to meet future growth and socio-economic condition with climate change. 71. The approach of the study was to focus on few Pilot coastal urban townships (Pourashavas) to draw conclusions to enable strengthening resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change. 72. Design levels adopted for existing infrastructure were: i. Water - 120 l/c/day in urban area to all households. ii. Sanitation - sanitary latrines available in 100% of households. iii. Flooding –No flooding from rivers with a 20 year return period flood flow. iv. Drainage – Urban flooding and waterlogging - all storm water to be discharged within 3 days.

3.1. Selection of the Coastal Towns 73. At the inception phase, the government was requested to propose the coastal towns that would be studied in the CDTA, to help finalize the approach and collection of specific baseline data and information. Considering the available resources and complexity of the assignment, it was decided that two or three towns would be appropriate. Pilot towns were selected based on following guidelines:  The most vulnerable and at-risk towns due to climate change and natural disasters and;  Towns where improvements in infrastructure were being developed under other proposed urban development projects, including preparation of urban master plans. 74. Based on these criteria the Executing Agency (EA) of this CDTA, i.e. Local Government Engineering Department (LGED) and the Consultant therefore selected three Pourashavas – Amtali, Galachipa and Pirojpur as pilot study towns. Proximities amongst these locations allowed easier logistics during field trips, data collection, FGDs and conduct of Workshops at these Pourashavas. They are also representative of the southern coastal climate domain that is in between a drier west and wetter eastern coastal areas.

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

75. Figure 3-1 shows the locations of these three coastal towns in Bangladesh and Table 3-1 below summarises the basic information of the three project townships.

Figure 3-1 Location Map of the three Pilot Pourashavas (Source: CDTA Team)

Table 3-1 Basic Information of the Three Project Townships (Pourashavas) Area District Pourashavas Population Category (km2) Barguna Amtali 8.92 17,311 Class B Patuakhali Galachipa 3.39 21,200 Class B Pirojpur Pirojpur 29.50 60,056 Class A (Source: BBS Census Community Report, 2011)

3.2. Steps 76. The study followed the sequence of steps illustrated in the schematic Figure 3-2. The first step was to undertake an exhaustive review of ongoing, planned and completed projects relevant to the scope of the project in the study area. Thereafter the study tried to establish the baseline status of urban drainage, water supply and sanitation in the project towns. Subsequent activity involved assessment of climate change scenarios and their impacts. These results were then used to identify and quantify the needs for climate resilient options in addition to the business as usual requirements to meet growth and development. Awareness raising and capacity building activities were undertaken all through the course of the project duration.

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report

Figure 3-2 Steps taken for implementation of the CDTA in the three coastal Pourashvas 3.3. Analysis Framework 77. Baseline information for each Pourashava was collected during field visits undertaken by the CDTA Team. Significant amount of information was also available from secondary sources

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report like other donor funded projects on water supply and sanitation in the coastal townships. LGED’s ongoing project on preparation of Urban Master Plans also provided draft survey reports for all the three project townships. The team had to spend a considerable amount of time in cross-checking and establishing the veracity of the data and information provided as in many instances the information turned out to be erroneous. 78. Below shows the various components of the CDTA analysis framework.

Figure 3-3 Components of the analysis framework used in the study 79. The climate component involved establishing the current baseline climate over the area of relevance that spanned three levels – the whole Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin, whole of Bangladesh and the southern coastal zone. Baseline climate was characterized using global and regional gridded data sets as well as observed data from stations in the coastal zone. Climate change scenarios from Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the IPCC AR4 genre and more recent versions being employed for the next IPCC assessment reports were used for projecting rainfall changes on a regional scale over the GBM basin. For projecting climate change in the 2030s and 2050s time horizons over the project location dynamically downscaled results from two Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were used. Details of the models and presented in next Chapter and Annex I. 80. Hydrodynamic models of the complex river systems, estuaries and northern Bay of Bengal constituting the coastal waters of Bangladesh have been applied for different national projects and programs under different national and international organizations. Several recently

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report completed and on-going projects have provided substantial secondary information that has enabled a fair characterization of the situation in the project area. For flood management, water supply and drainage computations for the Pilot Pourashavas, results from these modeling exercises have been analyzed to derive hydrodynamic conditions. These results include river or tidal creeks water levels, and salinity intrusion levels and surge extent for the baseline and projected climate change scenarios. 81. Urban water modeling conducted by the IWFM, BUET team using Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). This is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. 82. The combination of climate change projections, hydrodynamic modeling results and Urban drainage model simulation of inundation patterns were used to assess impacts on the various aspects of water supply, drainage & flood control, and sanitation & public health. Based on the assessments of impacts adaption options for building climate resilience were considered. Both structural and non-structural adaptation interventions were considered and actions were prioritized based on effectiveness, cost-benefits and choices expressed by communities and stakeholders. 3.4. Additional Data collection 83. The CDTA Team including the IWFM, BUET Urban Drainage Modeling group conducted three field visits to the Pilot Pourashavas during April-May 2012 period. Information and data from Pourashavas pertaining to socio-economic conditions, sanitation and Public health, water supply - particularly conditions of the Production Tubewells (in Amtali and Galachipa) and water treatment plant (in Pirojpur); condition of the sluice gates and embankments; and overall baseline conditions were collected. The IWFM, BUET team led by Prof. Saiful Islam assessed the conditions of the drainage infrastructure and outlet gates. 84. The two rounds of FGDs conducted by the CDTA team also provided important additional data and information to assess Baseline conditions and to record the impression of the community on gaps that are currently experienced, particularly when adverse climate events prevailed. 85. Water samples were collected during the field visits and sent for quality analysis to DPHE lab in Dhaka. This data was used in addition to other available secondary sources to characterize baseline water quality for the Pourashavas studied. 86. For setting up Urban Drainage Models for each Pourashava a detailed survey of the existing drainage channels – both natural and man-made was commissioned and undertaken by Ks Consultants. This survey was also tasked with collection of storm event discharge data in the major drainage channels of each Pourashava. Long-term rainfall data, water-level data and salinity data for Baleshwer River in Pirojpur were procured from BWDB. The period of this data was from generally from 1979-2010, with specific periods differing from location to location and the particular variable. 87. For groundwater pump test data for each township was collected and used by the Hydro- geologist expert in the CDTA team with the assistance of Ks consultants. 88. High-resolution topographic data for each Pourashava was obtained from the consultants working for LGED under the Master Planning project.

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4. Climate Projections

4.1. Climate Change scenarios 89. While considering the climate of Bangladesh it is important to view it as a part of an extended region that covers the whole Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin (l21°58’- 31°30’N and 73°30’-97°50’E) domain. The seasonal mean rainfall over the GBM influences the major river systems that have direct impact on the agriculture, water resources and basic infrastructure in Bangladesh. In a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the water sector over Bangladesh or its coastal zone it is therefore important to consider not only changes over the country, but also long-term changes of rainfall over the GBM basin. 90. The typical monsoonal climate of Bangladesh is defined by its prolonged rainy season. Livelihoods, traditions and cultures are built around this climate resource. Rainfall is therefore the most critical variable, particularly for this study, which is focused on the water sector issues. In the context of the coastal zone the other two important factors linked to climate are sea-level and cyclonic storms. Temperatures changes and trends have influences that are largely secondary in nature.

4.1.1 Approach 91. The spatial domain of the climate change analysis spanned the GBM basin, Bangladesh as a whole and the southern coastal zone. Firstly, observed trends in rainfall and temperature reported in other studies as well as our own analysis using global data sets were assessed (see Annex 1). 92. Assessment of the rainfall changes over the GBM basin was done using results from GCMs (Global Climate Models). Using GFDL_CM2.1 and ECHAM5, we examined the time- mean changes in rainfall and temperature with respect to current climate simulations performed by the same models. Choice these models was based on their demonstrated skill in simulating the mean monsoon precipitation over the GBM basin. Apart from the mean monsoon, these two models also demonstrated capability in capturing the spectrum of monsoon rainfall variability. In addition to these older GCMs, we also used the results from the CCSM4 (Community Climate System Model) - one of the GCMs from the latest suite of CIMP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5), which are being used for the next IPCC assessment. 93. Projections for future changes in the climate were made from available dynamically downscaled data from a Regional Climate Model (RCM – RegCM) generated for the Regional Economics of Climate Change in South Asia (RECCSA-II) project. These RCM simulations were made with the lateral boundary data from the output of MPI ECHAM5 GCM developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany. This GCM datasets downscaled to 30 km resolution was extracted and used for the Bangladesh domain for this study. Three SRES emission scenarios viz. A2, A1B and B1 representing high, medium and low emission futures, were used. Three 10-year time-slices representing 2030s, 2050s and the 2080s were considered, and the downscaled climate change projections were produced for these time- horizons. Evaluations showed that the downscaled results for temperature and rainfall were able to replicate Bangladesh seasonal climatology quite well. When compared with observed baseline climate the model results showed systematic differences in magnitudes, as found in most model results. For temperatures, the biases were estimated to be within 1°C , with the actual values varying spatially. In rainfall the model results showed a wet bias. To overcome the

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report problem of systematic bias in the model results we used the delta method wherein only changes from the model’s baseline climate are considered for the future time horizons. 94. Results from a second RCM were also assessed for a similar time horizon, but these results were available for only one emission scenario. This regional model has also been validated for the South Asian region in previous studies. The RCM results enabled us to look at climate change scenarios at a finer resolution that could differentiate the southern coastal zone that covers the project Pourashavas. 95. IPCC (2007) states that “near-term warming projections are little affected by different scenario assumptions or different model sensitivities, and are consistent with that observed for the past few decades. The multi-model mean warming, averaged over 2011 to 2030 relative to 1980 to 1999 for all AOGCMs considered here, lies in a narrow range of 0.64°C to 0.69°C for the three different SRES emission scenarios B1, A1B and A2.”

4.1.2 Salient results 96. Assessment of climate change summarized in Table 4-1 below: Table 4-1 Assessment of climate change over pilot Pourashavas Assessed Variable Likelihood Annotations changes

Observed trends (based on historical data)

1. Temperatures Increase Very likely Observed temperatures are increasing over the whole Associated variables like maximum temperatures show GBM basin and over increasing trends. There is increasing tendency in the Bangladesh. The observed number of warm nights and decreasing number of cool trend of increase is estimated nights. Increasing temperatures may be accompanied by to be about 1°C/100 years longer spells of above average mean temperatures, which may be applicable to the particularly during the summer season. southern coastal region too.

More Likely Monsoon rainfall Year-to-year 2. Rainfall Increase than not variability dominates at all space scales starting from Different sources of observed data sets show differing GBM basin to individual trends over the GBM basin, also there is a lack of a station rainfall series. consistent signal of increase or decrease among all stations for rainfall during the monsoon season There is some evidence of increasing tendency of extreme 1-day rainfall, particularly during the pre- monsoon months.

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Assessed Variable Likelihood Annotations changes

3. Sea-level Increase Likely Observed sea-level at the Combination of increase Bangladesh coast is in sea-level and storm increasing at a rate of about surge associated with 4.0-7.8 mm/yr. Relative tropical cyclones are of contribution of land- critical concern to the subsidence has not been coastal Pourashavas. considered rigorously by any of the studies. Other coastal dynamics and morphological changes in the delta area will be also important

4. Tropical Cyclones No clear - Some studies have interpreted trends increases in frequency and intensity in the recent decades. The normal frequency of cyclonic storms is one per year and that for severe cyclonic storm is one every three years based on historical observed data.

Projected Climate Change Scenario

1. Temperatures Increase Very Likely Over the whole region mean temperatures are projected to Increasing temperatures shows as a consistent signal increase. The maximum with a tendency for higher increases in the eastern temperatures are projected to parts of the coastal zone; warmer day-time increase by about 1.5 to 4°C temperatures and longer spells of higher than normal increase in the 2050s over the temperature days may be frequently experienced. southern coastal zone. This the extreme increase projected by a RCM, but the other RCM has projected only about 1.5°C.

2. Rainfall Increase Likely GCM models project increase

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Assessed Variable Likelihood Annotations changes

Increasing rainfall during the monsoon season (about in rainfall during the monsoon 10-15%) in the coastal area representing the three months over the whole GBM project Pourashavas. Analysis of daily rainfall region (Figure 4-1 below). projections from the RCM suggests higher variability This will contribute to and very likely increase in daily rainfall extremes. increased runoff in the GBM Second model shows higher increases in rainfall during rivers during the monsoon monsoon months. Associated increase in number of season. Increase in monsoon heavy rainfall events and increase in intensity of rainfall rainfall is projected at whole also indicated for high emission scenario. country and the coastal zone also.

3. Sea-level (global) Increase Likely It is important to estimate relative sea-level rise around The global sea-level projections show an increase the Bangladesh coast. ranging from 6 cm for the 2030s in a low emission Currently the sea-level scenario to 62 cm by the end of the century for high A2 projections at regional level emission scenarios. In combination with cyclone are highly uncertain. There is induced surge the sea-level rise will can be a major need to commission an threat to the coastal zone of Bangladesh. exclusive study on this important topic to understand the coastal vulnerability in future.

4. Tropical No changes Likely Murakami et al. (2012) Cyclones projected reported no significant changes in the over-all IPCC, 2012 report on extremes concludes “it is more frequency but noted slight likely than not that the frequency of the most intense changes in the genesis over storms will increase substantially in some ocean the Arabian Sea. More basins.” sustained research is needed to have robust results. (Source: CDTA Team)

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Figure 4-1 GFDL CM 2.1 climate model (GCM) simulated summer monsoon rainfall 5 [Source: CDTA Team, Note: figure shows (JJAS) rainfall (mm/day) averaged over the GBM basin but smoothed with a 21-year running mean. All the three ensemble members are shown. The y-axis shows the daily rainfall in mm/day.] 97. Annex I provides details of the observed climate trends and projections of climate change. 4.2. Hydrodynamic modelling 98. The main component of climate change is increase of temperature globally due to warming of atmosphere. The increase of temperature causes an enhancement of the water cycle resulting in increased precipitation on a global scale. Melting of ice will also cause increases in river flows and sea levels, initially. Bangladesh is a flood plain of three big rivers- Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) with Bay of Bengal in the southern boundary. Due to its location at the tail end of the GBM basin, the flood hydrology of Bangladesh (including the location, timing and extent of future floods) depends not just on the seven percent of the basin that lies within Bangladesh, but on the entire GBM basin. 99. The super or national flood model of IWM is used to estimate hydrologic changes within the country from changes in temperature and precipitation in Bangladesh and changes in river water flows into the country. The latter is determined from changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by GCMs using the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river basin model (Economics of adaptation to Climate Change report). Future flood estimates are modeled for five GCMs and two emission scenarios (A2 and B1; where A2 and B1 represent a high and low emission scenario). Model results differ widely regarding changes in precipitation in the GBM basin. Rainfall increases during the monsoon season (both in the 2030s and the 2050s) up to twenty percent more from July to September in most GCMs. Large changes at the onset of the monsoon (during May and June months), particularly in the Ganges, may reflect an earlier arrival of the monsoon season. During the dry season, some models show increased precipitation, while others show decreased precipitation. The temperature and precipitation changes predicted by each model are applied to the baseline historical climate data to generate flood scenarios.

5 On a continental scale, the GBM basin is a relatively small area. Hence, the area-averaged inter-annual variations in rainfall are quite large and required to be smoothed so that the long-term trends become discernable in the time- series plot.

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100. Simulations of the future trans-boundary inflows of the three major rivers (Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna) indicate that increased basin precipitation will result in increased inflows into Bangladesh during the monsoon period (Table 4-2). The magnitude of change from the baseline depends on the month, with larger changes on average on Ganges and in the 2050s. There is not much difference between the high emission A2 and low emission B1 scenarios. An increasing trend of monsoon rainfall and greater inflows into Bangladesh, the extent of flooding is likely to increase. The contribution of enhanced melting of the Himalayan glaciers due to global warming to downstream flows in the Ganges Basin has been estimated to very low (+1 to 4% of the annual average stream-flow at Farraka, West Bengal) as compared to the enhanced runoffs due to the monsoon rainfall (Sharma et. al., 2011). Table 4-2 Estimated average change (%) in discharge

(Source: WB, 2010, changes expressed is with respect to baseline average for years1978-2008)

101. Rising sea levels are one of the most critical climate change induced hydrological issues for coastal areas. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007a) AR4 report projected a global average Sea-level rise (SLR) between 18-59 cm, across various emission scenarios by the end of the 21st century.. Increasing temperatures result in sea level rise by the thermal expansion of water and through the addition of water to the oceans from the melting of continental ice sheets. Impacts of sea-level at a particular location or region is determined by “relative sea-level change” which is composed of the sum of global, regional and local trends related to changing oceans and land levels. 102. Sea level rise can influence the depth and the extent of the tides. Currently a large portion of the country’s southern coastal zone is an active delta exposed to tidal effects that alter the salinity of both surface and groundwater. Due to the low topography of the coastal areas, even at present about fifty percent of the area typically becomes inundated during the annual monsoons (World Bank, 2010). Although the coastal embankments offer protection from this tidal influx, it also causes drainage congestion inside the embanked area. 103. In the coastal areas including the pilot project Pourashavas, one of the main concerns linked to sea-level rise is due to potential changes in the tidal extent, duration and frequencies. 104. Table 4-3 gives the estimated changes in tidal hydraulics due to sea level rise during the time horizons 2030 and 2050 at project sites. These water levels in the rivers need to be considered along with projected global sea-level rise scenarios.

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Table 4-3 Climate Change induced tidal hydraulics in three coastal towns

4.2.1 Storm surge in coastal zone 105. Coastal zone of Bangladesh is vulnerable to tropical cyclones, with a severe cyclone striking Bangladesh every three years on average (GoB 2009). In this region cyclones occur in the pre- and post-monsoon seasons. Most of the cyclones hit the coast of Bangladesh with a north-eastward approaching angle. In recent years cyclones Aila and Sidr struck the south- western coastal zone showing that the whole coastal zone is vulnerable cyclones and storm surges. During the period 1960-2009, 19 severe cyclones have hit the coast of Bangladesh. 106. IWM has developed a two-dimensional storm surge model named Bay of Bengal model since 1995. This model was applied for the simulation of cyclones and cyclone related storm surges for a number of past major cyclones to generate the high risk zoning map for planning and management of cyclone shelters. Figure 4-2 shows tracks of major cyclones during the period 1960-2009 and an inundation risk map generated from 18 cyclones from 1960-2007.

Figure 4-2 Cyclone Tracks that have been considered and the inundation risk map generated for the coastal zone. (Source: IWM) 107. From the inundation risk map, the maximum depth of water due to storm surge and maximum surge level observed in the CDTA three coastal towns found are given in Table 4-4.

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Table 4-4 Maximum surge level and inundation depth

(Source: IWM) 108. To take into account climate change, two future sea-level rise scenarios combined with a 10% increase in maximum wind speed were considered to estimate storm-surge extremes. The sea-level rise scenarios considered were 32 cm in 2030 and 50 cm in 2050. Results of 100 year return period storm surge levels are presented for the polders around the three CDTA coastal towns below (Table 4-5). From baseline condition, 1990 sea level, to 32 cm SLR, the increase of storm surge level is about 10%.For a sea level rise from 1990 sea level to 50 cm SLR, the increase in storm surge level is about 25%. Table 4-5 List of storm surge levels under different sea-level rise conditions

(Source: CEIP Interim Report and Economics of Adaption to Climate Change Final report)

4.2.2 Salinity levels; including impacts of climate change scenarios 109. Saline water intrusion is highly seasonal in Bangladesh and during dry season deep landwards intrusion occurs through the various tidal rivers in the western part of delta, and through the Lower Meghna Estuary due to reduced low flow. The saline water is fully flushed in the Meghna Estuary during monsoon with the rush of enormous fresh water flow. However, salinity is not fully flushed in the western part of the coastal area due to the lower upland fresh water flows. 110. The Climate change induced effect of decreasing low flows in the dry season would increase the saline water intrusion in the coastal area. Sea level rise would increase the extent of saline water intrusion by pushing the saline waterfront landwards. The combination of sea level rise and low upland flow will change the present spatial and temporal variation of salinity, which eventually could cause problem to those coastal towns with surface water supply sources. However, for the 3 pilot project towns, our assessment shows that salinity does not pose a threat under the assumed seal level rise scenarios.

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111. The results of the salinity simulation (IWM 2008) is presented in Figure 4-3, where the landward intrusion of 5 ppt isohaline for 32 cm sea level rise in 2050 and 88 cm SLR in 2100 are indicated with baseline condition (1990 sea level).

Figure 4-3 Landward movement of equal salinity line for different sea level rise scenarios (Source: Redrawn from DoE, 2005 based on IWM data ) 112. From the Figure 4-3 it is seen that for sea level rise of 32 cm in 2050, salinity level is below 5 ppt in the three CDTA coastal towns – Pirojpur, Amtali and Galachipa. For a predicted sea level rise of 88 cm in 2100, the salinity level is still below 5 ppt at Pirojpur where the water supply is based on surface water. 113. Present and future salinity intrusion levels have been investigated by a study entitled ‘Impact of sea level Rise on Land use Suitability and Adaptation Options in the southwest of Bangladesh’ (CEGIS, 2006). Present condition of salinity intrusion levels in three CDTA coastal towns are between 0-1 ppt. These levels will remain the same up to 2050s with the sea level rise of 32cm. Even in 2100s with the sea level rise of 88cm, the salinity intrusion level will remain between 0-1 ppt especially for Pirojpur. (Figure 4-4) presents this scenario clearly; the base line salinity is 1990.

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Figure 4-4 Salinity intrusion levels in present and future (source: CEGIS, 2006)

114. It can be seen that both studies predict the rivers adjacent to the pilot project towns will have salinity levels less than the standards for water supply up to the 2050 design horizon.

4.2.3 Water supply: Assured river flow in vicinity of the townships up to 2050 115. Simulations of the future trans-boundary inflows of the three major rivers- Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna indicate that increased basin precipitation will result in increased inflows into Bangladesh over the monsoon period (World Bank, 2010, Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change). Maximum increase will occur in the Ganges, in 2050s, with an increase of 12.5% from 1990s baseline condition in the month of September (Table 4-2). The rivers in the southwest region of Bangladesh are the distributaries of Ganges, Padma (combined flow of Ganges and Brahmaputra) and Lower Meghna (combined flow of Padma and Upper Meghna). If the average discharge in these big rivers increases by the 2050s, the average flows in the distributaries of these rivers in the vicinity of the Pilot townships can also be expected to increase by 2050s. 116. From the above analysis it is clear that surface water could be used as a water source for all three CDTA coastal towns – Pirojpur, Amtali and Galachipa until the design horizon of 2050. Pirojpur already uses surface water as its water source and will be able to extract more surface water in the future as required. For Amtali and Galachipa, surface water could be used to meet future demand, if required.

4.2.4 Groundwater salinity intrusion 117. Deep groundwater is the principal source of low-As freshwater throughout southern Bangladesh. Although majority of the deep wells in the Bengal Aquifer System (BAS) are at >150 m depth (van Green et al., 2002), there is no uniformity in depths because of the large variation in the thickness of overlying confining layers and occurrence of saline groundwater pockets. Ravenscroft et al. (2009) have reported that more than 75,000 deep hand-pumped wells were installed by 2007, with a vast majority complying with the regulatory guidelines for

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As and salinity (DPHE/DFID/JICA, 2006). Deep groundwater provides water supply for more than 20 provincial towns and more than 100 rural supply schemes (Burgess et al., 2010). Of the three project Pourashavas, Amtali and Galachipa are currently dependent on deep groundwater production tube wells for their piped water supply. 118. Before discussing the impacts of climate change on salinisation of coastal aquifers, it is important to keep in view the general nature of the BAS of Bangladesh. The aquifer fabric has been assessed to be composed of sediments deposited in layers by the region’s rivers. These layers of sediments have been rendered discontinuous due to erosion and frequent changes in the course of rivers in the geological past. The aquifer fabric is therefore stratified and highly heterogeneous (World Bank, 2010). This results in a highly irregular distribution of saline and fresh groundwater which may always be difficult to understand or predict due to complexity. 119. Many studies (Burgess et al., 2010; Hoque et al., 2011 and Ravenscroft et al., 2013), particularly on low-As groundwater occurrence, have been undertaken based on quality controlled data from 1380 deep wells of southern Bangladesh (DPHE/DIFD/JICA, 2006). These study results provide some indication of the spatial distribution of low-As fresh groundwater in the southern coastal zone. Hoque et al. (2011) study shows that the depth of low-As fresh groundwater increases southward from <150 m to >300 m (Figure 4-5).

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Figure 4-5 Preliminary delineation of deep low-As groundwater (Source: Haque et al., 2011) 120. In the coastal zone the deltaic sediments are divided into multiple aquifers and aquitards as seen in the generalised section though the south-central region that represents the area of the project Pourashavas (Figure 4-6). Current knowledge about the interconnectedness of aquifers is insufficient. Assessment based on available studies so far, suggest that the hydraulic separation of aquifers increases progressively as aquifer horizons deepen (Ravenscroft et al., 2013). In southern Bangladesh, deep aquifers are often overlain by saline groundwater.

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Figure 4-6 Generalised hydro geological section through south-central area of Bangladesh. (Source: Ravenscroft et al., 2013. Points 1 and 2 are discontinuous pockets of fresh water in shallow aquifers at depths of 10-20 m with some As; and the points 3-5 are deep fresh groundwater with low As)

121. One of the possible impacts of sea-level rise accompanying climate change is saline intrusion. Saline intrusion in coastal areas can take place by three principal modes as illustrated in Figure 4-7 below.

Figure 4-7 Illustration of three modes** of salinisation of coastal aquifers in Bangladesh (Source: World Bank, 2010) **Mode a) Sea level rise induces lateral movement of saline groundwater into the aquifer and vertical infiltration at the surface; Mode b) More frequent and intensive storm surges result in more vertical infiltration of seawater into previously fresh zones; Mode c) Pumping in fresh groundwater zones can induce mixing and salinisation 122. These potential climate change impacts on salinisation of coastal aquifers have been assessed (World Bank, 2010) using groundwater modelling. This recent study summarized the

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report overall vulnerability of the deeper portions of the coastal aquifers (the primary source of freshwater in the coastal Pourashavas like Amtali and Galachipa) as:  High vulnerability to vertical infiltration of saltwater due to periodic storm surge flooding is considered significant (mode b), particularly in aquifers where clay layers above pumping wells are absent.  Lateral saltwater migration due to sea-level rise is considered a very slow salinisation process that depends on aquifer permeability. This has been therefore assessed as a moderate vulnerability.  Vulnerability to pumping-induced mixing of fresh and saline groundwater or increasing saltwater migration rates. 123. These potential impacts of climate change need to be considered alongside the overall issue of long-term sustainability of using deep groundwater aquifers. Ravenscroft et al. (2013) in their recent study have carried out analysis of long-term groundwater data from 43 wells for a period 1998-2011. Their conclusions based on this analysis are reproduced below:  Deep tubewells provide safe and reliable community water supplies over periods of decades  There is no hard evidence that the quality of water tapped by deep wells is deteriorating with regard to parameters that affect potability. Stability has been explicitly demonstrated for 13 years and it is inferred that there has been no significant change in water quality or water level decline from the pre-development condition, some 50 years ago. 124. Ravenscroft et al. (2013) further clarify that “at the scale of the Bengal Basin, the responses of water levels and water quality to pumping are very slow (100-1000 years)”. There may however be peculiarities of specific locations that must be considered while planning. 125. Monitoring and management is essential for sustaining the deep ground water resources as climate resilient options for future drinking water supply. Deep aquifers in the coastal zone of Bangladesh are a valuable resource from the geological past. As they are presently not fully mapped over the whole coastal zone because of their highly heterogeneous nature, it is imperative to tap this resource with care. Monitoring and management will be therefore necessary to ensure that water abstraction will remain within sustainable level and to avoid the risk of saline intrusion in the production wells.

4.3. General Impacts on Urban Water Sector

4.3.1 Water Supply 126. The southern region of the country particularly the coastal belt is very much vulnerable to climate change impacts. The possible climate change impacts are:  Increasing temperature leading to increased water demand;  Enhanced evaporation rates resulting in the drying up of surface water ponds, lakes, canals and water storage/reservoir facilities;  Prolonged dry spells during dry season leading to a reduction in water supplies from local sources and increased water demand;  Increased frequency of cyclonic storms like Sidr/Aila causing disruption of water supply;

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 Sea level rise due thermal expansion and melting of glacier or storm surge will increase the risk of salinity intrusion in shallow ground water aquifers, the source for some of the rural water supplies.  Increased monsoon rainfall over the whole South Asian region as well as the GBM basin is likely to influence river morphology influencing the water flow and its routes.

4.3.2 Urban Drainage 127. The Urban Drainage Model (UDM) has been applied to simulate design and climate change scenario driven: external flows and inputs from surface runoff, groundwater interflow, rainfall-dependent infiltration/inflow; utilize wave flow routing methods; and improvement of drainage channels where they overtopped under existing condition. A summary of the major conclusions of the study is provided below.  Drainage systems in the Pilot Pourashavas are as yet unplanned and under developed. Mostly the coastal Pourashava drainage network consists of set of natural Khals or canals that were part of the extensive coastal river system around which habitation developed.  Various sections of these natural canals in three Pourashavas are overtopped for design storm conditions due to extensive encroachment, restricted outflows, blockage due to dumping of solid waste and progressive siltation over many years mainly due to embankments that interrupt natural tidal flows. 128. Results do clearly indicate that with measures to enhance flows the main drainage system can be substantially improved to cater to present rainfalls and future enhanced spells due to climate change. Significant design improvements will be required to even manage the current rainfall intensities and variations. 129. UDM models need to be set up with better input data and calibration results. High resolution DEM data is necessary to delineate catchment of the study area. Total station survey (using modern technologies like airborne LIDAR) is necessary to construct high resolution DEM for the study areas, particularly important in the context of changed datum system and observed land subsidence. The current resolution of DEM used is 10 m. Continuous hourly rainfall and water level data of various major canals should be collected for a number of storms during the monsoon season of the study area. It is also essential to install automatic water level and flow measuring devices in the major canals and operate for the whole season. Automatic rain gauges should be installed to collect hourly rainfall data during the storms. 130. Setting up Urban Drainage Models for the townships requires lot of precise information. Availability of high quality DEM at very high resolution is a prerequisite. Similarly, past inundation patterns from either high-resolution satellite images or detailed post disaster survey would be required to establish the veracity of the model results. In the present case we had to calibrate the UDM at most project locations with just one event. So, it can be generalized that the UDM was set up with a broad prescription of inputs parameters rather than precise. Under such situation the model results will be also broadly indicative rather than exact. This will allow an approximate estimation of the design additionality required for meeting climate change related enhancements. At best the models can help decide the current climate risks due to extreme events.

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4.3.3 Sanitation 131. It is likely that the gradual climate change phenomena such as temperature rise and erratic patterns of rainfall will lead to increased water demand. Sea level rise and salinity intrusion will result in the deterioration in water quality in the coastal regions. Extreme events particularly cyclones and storm surges will damage water supply and sanitation infrastructure. 132. Increased water in the monsoon will damage settlements and infrastructure, resulting in disease outbreaks and more frequent deaths compared to the existing situation, whereas lack of rainfall in the monsoon will cause scarcity of water for drinking and sanitation. Drought will also create scarcity of water for irrigation, which will affect crop production and decrease livelihood options of the poor. 133. The climate change impact on sanitation can be broadly stated as

Problem  Over flow of Pit latrines and septic tank during flood (flash flood, tidal flood, rainwater flood and monsoon flood)  Loss of accessibility to the latrine during flood.  Increase in ground water level as a result of increased rainfalls. Characteristic  Health and environmental degradation leading to increased heath impacts risks  Surface water contamination  Loss of latrine capacity  Ground water contamination due to high water table.

4.3.4 Public Health 134. Human health is impacted by weather and climate. Extreme events like floods and cyclones, besides causing direct physical damage trigger outbreaks of infectious diseases and damage hospitals and other health infrastructure at a time when they are most needed. Their impact on sanitation infrastructure and food security can induce prolonged sufferings. 135. In this project focused on water supply, sanitation and drainage we tried to collect data and information related to public health and extreme events linked to climate in the coastal townships. We also tried to find linkages between current inadequacies in these sectors leading to higher vulnerability due to climate change induced extreme events including cyclonic storm exposure. 136. The climate change impact on public health can be broadly visualized as outlined in Table 4-6. Table 4-6 Climate change impacts on Public health Direct impacts Indirect Impacts Heat stress, Salinity of Mortality due to Water borne Vector borne water, etc. severe events diseases diseases Can get aggravated The diseases like diarrhoea, dysentery, jaundice, scabies etc. endemic to the region are water- sanitation related diseases. Re-

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emergence of malaria and dengue are also common in water-logged areas.

4.4. Summary 137. The generic climate change impacts on the various sectors are summarized below: Table 4-7 Climate parameters and impacts to water supply, sanitation and sanitation and health induced by their changes No. Climate Parameter Impacts

1. Temperature Water Supply: Increase in demand; enhanced evaporative increase losses; Drainage: - non significant Sanitation and Health: heat stress related health problems

2. Rainfall increase in Water Supply: Prolonged dry spells during dry season quantity and intensity leading to increased water demand; localized flooding inundating tube-wells, disruption of water pipelines etc. Drainage: - Flooding due to heavy rainfall spells Sanitation and Health: Water-logged conditions flood latrines and causing sanitation problems, increased chance of water and vector borne diseases. 3. Sea-level Water Supply: Saline intrusion risk into both fresh surface water and ground water supply Drainage: - Due to low lying conditions increase in sea-levels can worsen drainage congestion Sanitation and Health: Drainage conditions causing water- logged conditions causing sanitation problems, increased chance of water and vector borne diseases. 4. Tropical cyclones Water Supply: Disruption of water supply infrastructure, including surge Saline intrusion risk, water supply contamination. Drainage: - Inundation and congestion Sanitation and Health: deaths and physical injuries and damages to sanitation and health facilities; flooded conditions and deteriorated sanitation conditions cause disease outbreaks.

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5. The Pilot Pourashavas – Amtali, Galachipa and Pirojpur 138. Pourashavas in the coastal zone have developed significantly over the last few decades with electricity and water supply in their core areas. Most coastal Pourashavas have also been connected to the road network. There have also been significant changes in governance with Pourashava administration taking responsibility for provision of services to residents. 139. Most Pourashavas have experienced significant increases in populations in the decade 1991 to 2001. This increase has however not been maintained in the decade of 2001 to 2011 in most Pourashavas. This was due to a number of factors ranging from Government of Bangladesh interventions to lower the birth rate, drift to the main cities and also as an effect of natural disasters such as Cyclones Sidr and Aila. It must be noted that even though disaster management has improved, significant and prolonged flooding are still disruptive to regular activities.

6

5

4

3

2

1 Population Growth rate (%) rate Growth Population 0 Dhaka Chittagong Khluna Rajashahi Barisal Sylhet Divisons

Figure 5-1 Rate of change in population by division (Source: based on 1991-2001, BBS) 140. As seen from Figure 5-1, Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet have experienced significantly higher average annual urban growth rates (4-5%), while Barisal, Khulna and Rangpur showed lower growth rates – 2-3%. It has been suggested that this lower urban growth rates could be driven by environmental vulnerability and relatively high prevailing poverty levels that are perhaps acting as ‘push’ factors contributing to migration (MoLGRD&C, 2011). 141. It is therefore difficult to predict what will happen in the coastal Pourashavas but it can be expected that the towns will continue to grow with an increase in the standard of living of the populace. Most people now have adequate sanitation and access to potable water but it can be expected that improved water supplies, sanitation unaffected by flooding and relief from household flooding and local drainage problems will be increasingly demanded by the population. In addition, to meet the wish of the Government of Bangladesh to reduce the population to the big cities, development in the Coastal Pourashavas will continue to have a relatively high priority.

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142. The three pilot Pourashavas are representative of most of the coastal Pourashavas. They have the same problems with sanitation, water supply, flooding and drainage and have the same susceptibility to storm surges and other natural disasters. Solutions identified for the pilot Pourashavas will be directly relevant to other Pourashavas in the coastal zone. 5.1. Population Projections 143. Under Upazila Towns Infrastructure Development Project (UTIDP) funded by the Government of Bangladesh, the LGED has embarked on a task to prepare Master Plans for 223 Pourashavas. The aim of preparing the Master Plans for the Pourashava located at the Upazila Headquarters is to identify the infrastructural facilitates needed for overall socio- economic and physical development and activities of the people living in the respective Pourashava so to improve their living conditions. Although the UTID Project were able to make land use study data available to the Consultants, they could not supply approved population estimates. This exercise was therefore undertaken by the Consultants. 144. The population data for each town was projected from the 2001 and 2011 Census data based on the growth rate between 2001 and 2011 with a small reduction in the growth rate in each of the following decades. This reduction was to take into account measures by the Government of Bangladesh to reduce the overall population growth rate. The population estimates in the Secondary Towns project were also taken into account. Table 5-1 Projected population estimates Pourashava 2001 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 Amtali 13,305 17,311 21,336 26,136 31,241 36,435 Galachipa 17,373 21,386 25,247 30,505 36,463 42,525 Pirojpur 52,176 60,056 67,459 76,006 84,793 93,664 (Source: CDTA Team) 145. The next step in the process of population estimates was to predict the population in each of the wards in the town. The Draft Urban Master Plans for each Pourashava were reviewed and details of the future physical growth directions abstracted together with the existing land use. From the 2011 census data of population in each ward and the Master Plan land use data the population density in the residential land use areas was determined 146. The future change in the population distribution in the town wards was then derived from first principles considering:  Existing development  Developed residential area  Existing agricultural area (considered as area that could be developed)  Proximity of existing residential development  Constraints on development such as rivers, khals and water bodies  Population density of existing and future residential developments  Physical growth directions as given in the Urban Master plan

147. In each ward, the residential area and the population density were then considered as variables. For each design horizon: 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, both variables were then increased based on the physical growth direction as given in the Urban Master plan. The developed area in each ward was increased only if the increase in residential area could be

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report subtracted from the available agricultural land. The population density was then increased based on the existing population density. 148. Once the increase in residential area and population density had been assessed in each ward the ward populations were summed with the total population compared with the projected total Pourashava population. The individual ward residential areas and population densities were then adjusted and the sum of the ward populations compared again. A check was also made that the growth rates in each ward were consistent between the different population estimate horizons. By a process of iteration a final set of areas and densities were derived for the design horizon considered. 149. This process was repeated for each population horizon so that a comprehensive set of ward populations was established. 5.2. Master Planning project 150. The total number of Upazila Pourashavas in Bangladesh is 308 (LGED, 2012). These urban centres are being subjected to unplanned development as population pressures increase. Master Plans for development of Pourashava were unavailable until the recent effort initiated by Local Government Engineering Department (LGED). In the absence of proper Master Plan construction of all types of infrastructure like houses, roads, drains, markets are going on in a unplanned manner. This has rendered the Pourashavas vulnerable to climate and environmental hazards, making living conditions difficult for communities. 151. In view of this grave situation LGED initiated a project for preparation of Master Plan of 22 District Pourashavas and 223 Upazila Pourashava towns and the Kuakata Tourism Center. Under this project it was proposed to plan for a period of next 20 years. Further, in support of the Master Plan the project also envisaged preparation of separate plans for land-use, drainage and environment, traffic management and ward action plans to ensure operation and maintenance of the existing infrastructure along with those facilities proposed to be built up under the future investment program. The Master Plans were also, to suggest improvement of the management capacity of the Pourashava Authority so that their revenue earning capability will be enhanced. It is expected that this will enable the Pourashava Authority to be a self- sustaining local government institution. The Master Plan exercise will also suggest construction of roads and bridges/ culverts, drainage facilities, streetlights, markets, bus stands, solid waste management, sanitation, water supply and other such infrastructure facilities. 152. Out of these 308 Pourashavas a total of 223 Pourashavas and Kuakata Tourism Center development program are undertaken in Preparation of Master Plan for Pourashavas under “Upazila Towns Infrastructure Development Project (UTIDP)”. Under the “District Town Infrastructure Development Project” a total of 22 district Pourashavas are being taken up. Within these two projects under the LGED, Pirojpur, Amtali and Galachipa Pourashavas Master Plan preparation are in progress. The CDTA Team had access to draft survey reports for all the three Pilot Pourashavas, but the draft Master Plans were only available for Amtali and Pirojpur. Also since these Master were still in draft stage, being discussed and not accepted yet by LGED it presented difficulties in terms of its use as well as its evaluation.

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6. Amtali 153. Amtali Pourashava lies with the Amtali Upazila within the Barguna District. Amongst the five Upzilas in the Barguna District, the Amtali Upazila ranks first in respect of both population and area. It is located between latitudes 21º51’ and 22º18’ North and longitudes 90º00’ and 90º23’ East. The Upazila is bounded on the north by Patuakhali Sadar Upazila, on the east by Galachipa and Kalapara Upazilas, on the south by the Bay of Bengal on the west by Barguna Sadar Upazila and Mirzaganj Upazila. 154. Amtali Pourashava is a Class-B Pourashava with an area is 8.96 km2 and a population of 17,311 with 4,067 households (BBS, 2012a) as given by the 2011 census. The figures during the 2001 census were 13,305 and 2,712 for population and households, respectively (BBS, 2001). The Pourashava consists of 15 Mahallas with 9 wards. Water bodies such as rivers, ponds, ditches and khals cover a substantial part of Amtali Pourashava. The Pourashava lies about 38 kms from the sea coast. 6.1. Topography 155. A topographic and physical feature survey of Amtali Pourashava was conducted by the Sheltech consultants Pvt. Ltd. (SCPL) in 2009 – 10 (LGED, 2011). Amtali Pourashava area is flat with slightly higher land at its central part; the lowest spot height is 1.170 m and the highest spot height is 3.400 m PWD6. Average height of land of Amtali is 1.67 m. Figure 6-1 shows the topography of the Pourashava along with the critical infrastructure. It can be seen that inherent knowledge have already help most of the key infrastructure to be located on relatively higher ground. 156. Amtali Pourashava has 429 roads which cover about 16.3 ha in area, of which 2.0 ha are kutcha roads, 12.6 ha are pucca roads, and 1.7 ha are semi- pucca roads. 157. The physical feature survey established that there are 16.2 ha of roads, 4 bridges, 19 box culverts, 1 pipe culvert and 2 sluice gates within Amtali Pourashava. 158. A substantial part of the town (116 ha) is covered by water bodies like river, ponds, ditches and khals. Some water body areas especially ditches are not under water throughout the year. But some ponds have water all year round. These latter water bodies act as water reservoirs in the area. 6.2. Land Use 159. Under the Upazila Towns Infrastructure Development Project (UTIDP), a Master Plan is currently being prepared and a draft copy of the Master Plan has been made available to the Consultant to assist in this project.

6 Public Works Datum (PWD) originally set to mean sea level with a vertical error of 0.45m. Observation wells and surface water gauges of Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) were set using this datum. Normally, depths of water levels are measures with respect to this datum.

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Figure 6-1 Topographic Map for Amtali Pourashava showing critical Infrastructure (Source: LGED,2011a)

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160. A land use survey was conducted by the SCPL to establish the current land use (Figure 6-2). The survey results shows that there is dominance of agricultural land (68%) followed by residential land (13%) and water bodies (13%). The survey clearly shows that the land use pattern does not reveal much urbanized land use. Key results of the survey are summarised below with present Land uses are shown in Table 6-1. Table 6-1 Land use of Amtali Pourashava Landuse Area (ha) % Residential 117.5 13.13 Commercial 8.0 0.90 Industrial 1.2 0.14 Education and Research 6.1 0.68 Community Service 1.4 0.15 Service Activity 2.2 0.24 Recreational Facilities 0.1 0.01 Government Services 10.9 1.21 Non-Government Services 0.4 0.04 Transport & Communication 0.2 0.02 Agricultural 612.3 68.44 Mixed Use 0.7 0.08 Urban Green Space 0.6 0.07 Circulation Network 16.3 1.82 Open Space 0.7 0.08 Water body 116.1 12.98 Total 894.6 100 (Source: LGED, 2011a) 161. According to the land use Plan of Amtali Pourashava, the housing area is comprised with mixed residential, commercial, urban, semi urban and rural homesteads, slums and squatters. Most of housing areas have developed in a spontaneous way as well as in an unplanned way that make the quality of housing underprivileged and sub-standard. About 89% of the households at Amtali Planning area own their own housing. 162. The Transportation and Traffic. Management Survey results reveal that there is no public or private bus service available for internal movement of passengers at Amtali. At present, there is no designated authority for the management of traffic at Amtali Pourashava, the owners of the transport agencies decide about their routes and manage their traffic.

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Figure 6-2 Amtali land use (Source: LGED, 2011a)

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6.3. Socio-economic status

6.3.1 Demographics 163. As recorded in the 2011 census, Amtali Pourashava had a population of 17,311 with 4,067 households giving an average household size of 4.3. The Pourashava officials led by the Mayor himself conveyed to the CDTA team on several occasions (FGDs, Workshops and consultation meetings) that population as estimated by the Pourashava is 23,272 with 4,713 households as in 2012. There was however no documentation available for the Pourashava estimates due which reason the population available from the latest BBS census had to taken as the baseline. A more reliable estimate needs to be made for any future development planning work. 164. Table 6-2 provides information about total number of households with average size and population of Amtali Pourashava. Table 6-2 Amtali 2011 Census data Average Density Ward Area Population 2 Households size of (per sq. No. (km ) Male Female Total Household km) 1 0.57 226 532 479 1,011 4.5 1,774 2 1.09 412 856 944 1,800 4.4 1,651 3 0.66 650 1,366 1,352 2,718 4.2 4,118 4 1.46 626 1,388 1,274 2,662 4.3 1,823 5 0.24 572 1,196 1,245 2,441 4.3 10,171 6 0.37 448 988 913 1,901 4.2 5,138 7 2.42 493 1,018 1,000 2,018 4.1 834 8 1.28 380 823 825 1,648 4.3 1,288 9 0.83 260 534 578 1,112 4.3 1,340 Total 8.92 4,067 8,701 8,610 17,311 4.3 1,941 (Source: BBS, Community Report, Zila: Barguna, 2011) 165. A projection was made by the project team of ward populations up a design horizon of 2050, see Section5.1.Table 6-3 shows the population projection for Amtali Pourashava Table 6-3 Amtali Population prediction by Ward Ward Total 2,011 2020 2030 2040 2050 No (Ha) 1 57 1,011 1,223 1,770 2,500 3,264 2 109 1,800 2,178 2,673 3,235 4,117 3 66 2,718 3,289 3,979 5,222 6,000 4 147 2,662 3,453 4,560 4,674 5,445 5 24 2,441 2,954 3,341 3,500 3,570 6 37 1,901 2,250 2,375 2,375 2,550

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7 242 2,018 2,650 3,206 4,860 5,994 8 128 1,648 1,994 2,584 2,917 3,291 9 83 1,112 1,346 1,650 1,950 2,188 Total 893 17,311 21,336 26,138 31,233 36,419 Growth rate 2.35% 2.05% 1.80% 1.55% (Source: CDTA team estimate)

6.3.2 Household incomes 166. Poverty in Amtali as estimated in the FGD shows that the average monthly income of 25% of the households is less than Tk. 6,000. As shown in Table 6-4, 55% of households are in category 1 and 2, the ultra-poor and poor, and can hardly manage two meals a day and suffer from food insecurity and malnutrition throughout the year. The middle-income group with income of Tk. 10,000-to 30,000 per month accounted for 30% of households in Amtali. People of this category are dependent on farming in their own land and/ or share cropping and earn additional income from small businesses. Table 6-4 Percentage distribution of Household income in Amtali7 Average Monthly Income Percentage of Category Type of Poverty in taka population 1 Ultra Poor Less than 6,000 25 2 Poor 6,000-less than 10,000 30 3 Middle income group 10,000-less than 30,000 30 4 Rich TK. 30,000 and above 15 Total 100 (Source: FGD 21-24 May 2012- by CDTA Team, Pourashava Source)

6.3.3 Occupation/Major Economic Activity 167. A study by the LGED showed that there is diversity of occupations in the Pourashava. The occupation pattern shows that agriculture, small business and education are the predominant occupations.

6.3.4 Literacy rates 168. Below shows the education levels in Amtali. It can be seen that over 66% of the population have attended school for six years or more.

7 Ultra poor: No fixed income with uncertain one full meal, no homestead; Poor: Irregular income with one fixed full meal may or may not have homestead; Middle income group: Involve in cultivation in own land/share cropping, depend on farming, earn additional income from small business; Rich: Belongs to service holder, teacher, medium type business, remittance etc.

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Table 6-5 Literacy rates for Amtali Pourashava Level of education % Illiterate 6.0 Class I-V 28.1 Class VI-X 33.0 SSC or Equivalent 19.3 HSC or Equivalent 5.7 Graduate 1.9 Post graduate 1.3 Above post graduate 0.0 N/A 4.8 Total 100 (Source LGED Field survey 2011)

6.4. Consultations with local residents 169. In a Focus Group Discussion (FGD) 8 in May 2012 the group drawn from local stakeholders and residents identified the climatic vulnerabilities and impacts as listed in Table 6-6. Table 6-6 Climate Vulnerability Matrix and Impacts assessed by FGD 1 Prone to Cyclone/ Flood/Tidal wave surges and River Erosion: − Wards 1, 4, 5, 8 and 9 are located outside the embankment and are severely prone to tidal surge, while Ward 4 and 8 are vulnerable to river erosion by the Payera River. − Due to Cyclone, Flood and Tidal surges and river erosion people have lost agricultural production, homesteads, immovable and movable assets. There is frequent displacement of households, damage to sanitation infrastructure, increase in poverty level, financial crisis and increase in food prices. These impacts lead to forced migration particularly the male bread earners of households, increased incidence of water borne diseases and fishing community losses of their fishing equipment. − No government assistance reached the town until one week after Aila and Sidr.

8 During the field visit by CDTA Team (21-24 May 2012) 3 Focus Group Discussions have been conducted in 3 different locations. 20 persons attended in each FDG. People from different strata, in terms of sex, occupation, income, lifestyle etc., were involved. The Pourashava took the responsibility of selecting the participants.

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2 Cyclone Shelter − Two cyclone shelters were constructed in ward 7 and 8 that can accommodate 300-400 people. During Cyclones Aila and Sidr the water level in many places was higher than 4.5 m above ground level. People took shelter at the UNO Office, Local college, Dak Bungalow, and safe private houses. Tube wells installed at ground level and toilets constructed in the 1st floor were under water during the flood causing a severe scarcity of drinking water and sanitation problems for the people.

3 Knowledge Management on Disaster Preparedness − Lack of knowledge regarding disaster preparedness particularly among women councillors and leaders caused loss of properties and human lives.

4 Salinity Intrusion − There is a scarcity of safe and fresh drinking water and water for domestic use throughout the year. This is due to contamination of the water by salinity and iron. Salinity also causes gradual degradation in the quality of land, reduces productivity and damages their crops.

5 Water Supply Shortfall − There is a shortage of water in the Pourashava. This is either a result of problems with the existing production wells, inadequate pumping duration and/or leakages.

6 Water - Shortage of Production/Deep Tube Well − The Pourashava has 2 Production Tube Wells (PTWs) of which one was not working till Feb 2013. For a dependable water supply it is necessary to ensure that two PTWs remain in running condition, as the supply will fail whenever the single well breaks down. − For a water supply to serve all of the Pourashava at least 5 PTW, 2 Over Head Tank and 20 km of supply line is needed (Pourashava Engineers at LGED meeting held on13 Sept 2012 to discuss draft Interim Report)

7 Poor drainage and water-logging − Lack of drainage causes prolonged water logging during normal rainfall and flood time, also causes problems for peoples’ mobility and a bad smell from water- logged areas that adversely affects public health. Temporarily dug drainage channels are currently being used for draining out of flood water − During drainage rehab work the roads should also be rehabilitated (Pourashava Engineers at LGED meeting held on13 Sept 2012 to discuss draft Interim Report)

8 Poor main drainage − The main Khal has 2 outfalls with sluice gates, of which one is blocked.

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9 Waste Management − Since 2008, some 1,500 households have had solid waste collected by the Nazrul Shanti Sangha, an NGO. Due to lack of an official waste dumping ground, people indiscriminately dispose of waste in the town resulting in poor sanitation and environmental pollution. − The Pourashava has insufficient trolleys, vans and a pick up for transporting waste.

10 Other social problems − Lack of employment. − Incidence of Polygamy among the married male population was reported to be nearly 10%. − Incidence of early marriage. − Incidence of dowry. (Source: FGD at Pourashava 21-24 May 2012-CDTA)

6.5. Current Infrastructure and Services

6.5.1 Water Supply 170. Under DPHE-DANIDA water supply and sanitation project, the first piped water supply system, was built and commissioned in 1999. Under the project two PTW (Production Tube Wells) with 1 km of transmission pipeline and 18 km of distribution line were installed. At present (2012) only 37% of households have house connections and 4% use standpipes for water supply as provided by the DPHE-DANIDA Water supply and sanitation project. The remaining households depend on Hand Pump Deep Tube Wells. It is estimated that currently 60% of the population are supplied with water. The rest of the population has access to public and private hand tube-wells. Shallow groundwater is unacceptably saline with ponds drying out in the dry season. Details of Water Supply provided in Annex 6. 171. The township has one RCC Overhead Tank of 500m3 capacity in waterworks compound. The height of the tank is 26.3m from ground level with water from all production wells supplied through to this OHT. The present condition of OHT and Pump House is good. 172. The water quality test report of well field of Amtali Pourashava shows that there is almost no increase in salinity for last 13 years. Hydrogeological status shows that the deep aquifer is protected by confining clay layers above.

6.5.2 Drainage 173. There are approximately 20 km of drains in the township. The main drainage canal Basaki flows into the Paira or Buriswar River through a sluice gate at its outfall (Photograph 6-1). The drainage system is not well planned despite undergoing improvement as part of the DANIDA project. As the system is under-designed even with relatively little rainfall, the drains overflow. 174. The southern section of the Amtali River drains to Suhandi khal that is regulated 15 km away at Suhandi. It is reported that this regulator has been by-passed and the southern section of the Amtali River is now tidally affected.

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175. Drainage from the Bazar area is discharged through the northern flood embankment into the tidally affected Amtali River through four outfalls. The four upstream drainage networks are linked so that flows from higher areas can discharge through any outfall. Minor flooding is observed in the Bazaar area during periods of heavy rain due to inadequate drainage. More severe flooding occurs when there is an extreme tide and water flows back up the drains.

Photograph 6-1 Basuki Sluice Gate at the outfall of Basaki Khal to Paira River (pic. credit: Saiful Islam) 176. The residential areas suffer from extended periods of water logging due to the lack of drains with most areas within the town drained to the Amtali Central Road Khal, which discharges west into the Pyera River through a two gate regulator. 177. There is no drainage at the southern closure and frequent localized flooding is reported, both on the closure itself and on the adjacent sections of the Kalapara - Amtali Central Road. Flooding is also reported adjacent to the Press Club and Dak Bungalow.

6.5.3 Flood Control/Disaster Preparedness 178. Normal tide level in the area is 2.69 mPWD as compared to the average elevation of the land here which is 1.67 mPWD. The Pourashava is therefore protected from tidal flooding by a BWDB embankment. 179. Flood control embankments have been constructed around the Pourashava to form polder 43/1 to avoid inundation by tidal flooding during the monsoons. Rainwater inundation is removed by Regulators located in the polder embankment. The polder embankment is 86 km in length with 13 drainage regulators with 26 standard vents. Within the polder are 98 km of drainage khals. The khals inside the Polder have been silted up or encroached at several locations.

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180. During severe storm surges such as those associated with Cyclones Sidr and Aila, the embankments of the polder were breached or over topped to inundate the whole area of the Pourashava. 181. Two cyclone shelters are available in the Pourashava, one in Ward 7 and the other in Ward 8 that can accommodate 300-400 people.

6.5.4 Sanitation 182. The considerable efforts over the last few years by the Government, the Municipality and NGO’s have proved highly effective, as approximately 95% of households now have adequate sanitation. There are continuous efforts to provide the remaining 5% with sanitation, but it has proven difficult. 183. According to BBS in 2006, 89% of households had sanitary toilets, 8% have unhygienic toilet facilities such as kacha and hanging latrines and 3% have no toilet facilities. There are only two public toilets are there at present. 184. No systems for Solid Waste Management presently exist.

6.5.5 Public Health 185. The socio-economic survey for Amtali revealed that prevalent diseases are either water borne or water related. The incidence of diarrhea, dysentery and jaundice were high. Other water related diseases included worm infections and skin diseases. This establishes a clear linkage with occurrences of water borne and water related diseases, and poor water and sanitation services and personal hygienic practices in the town. 186. During periods of flooding, drinking water sources are affected and contaminated as the piped network and hand pump tube wells become submerged. Consequently, the communities suffer from water-sanitation related diseases. Recently, Cyclones Sidr and Aila had a severe impact on public health, with phenomenal increases in cases of diarrheal, skin, and eye infection diseases. 6.6. Requirements to meet Gaps and Growth

6.6.1 Water Supply 187. The present piped water supply covers only 37% of the households. The Pourashava needs to provide safe water for drinking and other domestic uses 24 hours delivery services to cover the whole population. 188. There are different socio-economic sections living in the Pourashava and there are fringe areas with scattered households. Water supply is also a revenue earning service for the Pourashava management. Keeping these factors in view different options have been considered in designing the future needs. The socio-economically well to do section of the community will be provided with in house water connection (house connection), the low income community people in the core and semi core area will be covered by shared tap (1 yard tap for 3~4 family) and the people in the fringe area by hand deep tube wells. Public stand post street hydrants have not been considered as the Pourashava considers that they will increase water loss. The projected service coverage between 2012 and 2050 is shown in Table 6-7 below.

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Table 6-7 Projected Amtali Service Coverage Population Population Population No. of HC No. of ST coverage by coverage Total Year Population coverage (av. HH (1 for 3~4 House by Shared connection by HTW (%) size 4.5 ) family) Connection (%) Tap (%)

2012 17,717 29 0 71 1,125 0 1,125

2020 21,336 40 15 45 1,896 203 2,099

2030 26,138 50 10 40 2,904 166 3,070

2040 31,233 60 10 30 4,164 198 4,362 2 36,419 70 5 25 5,665 116 5,781 050 (Source: CDTA team estimate) 189. To meet water demand for the year 2030, at least 4 Production Tube Wells and two Over Head Tanks connected with 32 km pipelines need to be installed in addition to the existing ones. More hand pump tube wells (250) for the city dwellers living outside the piped water supply area need to be installed. Safe drinking water in the cyclone shelters during flood times needs to be ensured. Programme to sensitise the community regarding safe water use and hygiene practices should be implemented. Besides, financial management requires improvement starting with taking steps to collect arrears and having customers pay on time. Non-revenue water losses also have to be reduced.

6.6.2 Drainage 190. The drainage system of the Pourashava is not well managed or planned. Lack of proper drainage causes prolonged water logging during In Amtali, both manmade and natural drainage system serve the people of the area. Amtali has no secondary drains. 191. In Amtali Pourashava, the ponds store excess water during heavy rainfall and floods. Due to rapid population growth, fallow land and natural water bodies & drainage khals have been occupied by the human settlements, Encroachment on the drainage paths, absence of proper outlet, lack of proper maintenance of the existing drainage system and the dumping of solid waste into the drains contribute to blockage of drainage and water logging problems. The areas suffering from drainage congestion are particularly affected during moderate to heavy rainfall. 192. The residential areas suffer from extended periods of water logging due to the lack of drains with most areas within the town drained to the Amtali Central Road Khal, which discharges west into the Pyera River through a two gate regulator. 193. For the design storm conditions (10-year 2-hour design storm hyetograph) the results of the Urban Drainage Modeling indicate water overflows in the canal at various sections by 0.5 to 1.5 m spanning its entire reach. Figure 6-3 shows inundation depths estimated based on the UDM results for the design storm with most of the Pourashava area being waterlogged. Although quantitatively the model may be over estimating inundation depths, the results seem to compare well with the LGED Master Plan survey results that stated “89% of the surveyed households stated that on average each year the height of floodwater was up to plinth level; 9% that 0.3m depth of flooding was experienced and 19% reported that flooding depth exceeded 0.6m.

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Figure 6-3 Amtali Design Storm Inundation depths from Urban Drainage Model results (Source: CDTA team)

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194. The impact of Cyclones Sidr and the Aila lasted for 30 and 10 days respectively. Cyclone Aila breached flood protection embankments and caused major damage to properties; much greater than the damage caused by Cyclone Sidr. 195. Flooding causes problems for ’mobility and a bad smell from waterlogged areas that adversely affects public health. The main Khal has 2 outfalls with sluice gates, of which one is blocked. 196. Actions proposed include - Supplement and modify existing drainage to ensure smooth and easy operation of the drainage system (pucca for urban based wards like 2, 3, 4, 5 & 6) and semi-pucca for agricultural wards like 1, 7, 8 & 9). Construct and improve outfalls to activate blocked sluice gates. Specific activities proposed: i. Improve sections of the drainage system as identified by the UDM study (Annex IV). Canals are needed to be re-excavated for smooth draining of flood water ii. About Nine sluice gate/outlet are required to be constructed (2 under wards 1-3, 4 under wards 4-6 and 3 under wards 7-9 respectively) for proper drainage system; iii. Lake water to freshened and kept clean, free from pollution 197. UDM study has demonstrated that with improvement of canal cross-sections it was possible to avoid flooding. With revised design of the cross-sections in the model, the canals were capable of carry the flow generated by the design storms except for two sections of one major Khal. The over topping occurred in one canal is not very significant with a maximum value of 14cm. The UDM study concluded that (Annex IV) that improvement of canal sections can be a suitable solution of the drainage congestions of Amtali Pourashava.

6.6.3 Flood control/Disaster Preparedness 198. Wards 1, 4, 5, 8 and 9 are located outside the embankment and are severely prone to tidal surge, while Ward 4 and 8 are vulnerable to river erosion by the Paira River. 199. About 86 km of polder embankment around Amtali was severely damaged during the storm surges resulting from Cyclones Sidr and Alia. Parts of the embankment were damaged and washed away and breached. Some reaches of embankment were eroded. Gates of the regulators were either broken or damaged. Siltation covered the regulators, water control structures and their gates to make them inoperative. Some of this construction was likely to be taken up by the World Bank funded “Emergency 2007 Cyclone Recovery and Restoration Project (ECRRP)” being executed by the BWDB, but there is some uncertainty as Amtali is currently out of the shortlist of 19 polders being taken up in the current phase (meeting discussion with Mr. Iqbal Hussain, Project Director, ECRRP, BWDB). 200. Due to Cyclone, flood and tidal surges and river erosion people have lost agricultural lands, homesteads, and other assets. Frequent displacement of households, other infrastructure, increase in poverty level, financial crisis and increase in food prices. These phenomena forced them to migrate as fishing community lost their fishing equipment and agricultural lands were also destroyed. 201. During Cyclones Aila and Sidr the water level in many places was higher than 5 m above ground level. People took shelter at public places and safe private houses. Tube wells installed at ground level and toilets constructed in ground floor were under water during the flood causing a severe scarcity of drinking water and sanitation problems for the people. Lack of knowledge regarding disaster preparedness particularly for fishermen, women, old and disable

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report persons. Drinking water was not available in cyclone shelters and without toilet facilities in the higher floors. Requirements of women and disabled were also not taken care off. 202. The following requirements need to be addressed-  Additional bank protection needed to keep ward no. 1,4,5,8 & 9 protected them from river erosion.  Green belt / afforestation are needed around the embankment to save them from erosion.  Amtali Dune and Sobujbag Lake need to come under integrated ‘flood control and drainage system’ – through which the water of tidal surge and high rainfalls can easily drain out to the Paira River.  Construct 4 more cyclone shelters with sufficient accommodation (special environment should be kept for women, disable and infant) and multi-disciplinary use (like primary school, community clinic etc.)  Enhance necessary facilities in the Cyclone shelters for women and men during flood time (with adequate safe water supply and hygienic sanitation) and separate areas for livestock.  The Eidgah/Praying Field constructed above flood level – so that during emergency this place can be used (during disaster) to protect the lives of cattle and preserve other tangible asset  Intensive early warning (local language) to mass community before cyclone and other well managed and integrated preparation are needed – pre, post and during the disasters.

6.6.4 Sanitation and Public Health 203. Septic tank effluent is discharged to drains. Desludging of septic tanks is the responsibility of the house property owners who discharge the contents to local drains or unused land. On the other hand, Pourashava does not operate a vacuum tanker for emptying septic tanks and pit latrines. Besides, problems occur when pit latrines and septic tanks are flooded resulting in a loss of accessibility to the latrine and pollution is caused by discharge of the contents. Amtali Pourashava is normally subject to flooding every year and latrines are inundated for 2 to 3 days. There are no school or community latrines and only two public latrines. Unhygienic conditions are caused by the discharge of septic tank effluent to drains; the emptying of septic tanks into drains and unused land and during floods. 204. Remedial infrastructure required include: i. Increase in the number of public toilets to about 20 and 25 community toilet needed to be installed ; ii. Toilets need installing at first floor level in Cyclone shelters iii. Efficient sludge management system needed to be introduced iv. 300 pit latrine required to be installed 205. There is currently no solid waste management plan being adopted. There is need to identify a suitable area to serve as dumping site. Arrangement of a system of garbage

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report collection with adequate dumping vehicles (about 1 truck and 20 vans) is required. Slaughter house also needs to be established. 206. Health care staff and professionals at health center are inadequate to cater to the needs of the Pourashava, particularly during exposure to severe cyclones and other such adverse conditions when there disease incidence reach epidemic scales. Also, there is need to maintain systematic records to enable future assessments, trends in diseases prevalence, and quantification of needs thorough more rigorous analysis.

6.6.5 Other Infrastructure 207. There were expressed requirements for improved roads to link with the main highway and having adequate number of culverts. There is also a need for improving ferry terminals and need for a Bus terminal. Different sections of the roads are areas to be improved were recommended during the focused group discussions. 208. Wider road construction with RCC along with link road, foot path, proper drainage system and required numbers of culverts all over the town are to be provisioned. 6.7. Impacts of climate change 209. The general impacts of climate change risks become more specific when considered in the unique context of the Pourashava. This section presents specific analysis with regards to water supply, drainage, and Flood control & disaster preparedness. Sanitation and Public health impacts have not been dealt separately under each Pourashava as the level of information in these sub-sectors are quite generic for which the impacts of climate change remain very similar across the three town considered.

6.7.1 Water Supply 210. Climate change impact on water supply services of the Pourashava is assessed on each of the four broad components viz. Water source, Distribution, Infrastructure (water production) and Consumption (demand side). Although the climate change impacts can be perceived relatively easily they are difficult to quantify, except in some cases. Even where clear quantification can be made, it needs to be borne in mind that these are merely indicative as there is a wide range of cascading uncertainty beginning from the climate change projections to hydrodynamic and urban flooding models. For example in case of water demand keeping in view the climate change projections that indicate 1.5 – 4.0 degrees increase in maximum temperatures, present summer time peak consumption compared to the annual average has been used to estimate the possible increase in demand with climate change. Table 6-8 presents a matrix of climate change impacts on various components of the water supply infrastructure. Table 6-8 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on water supply at Amtali Pourashava Rainfall Cyclonic Temp. Components Sea-level rise Other remarks Increase Storms increase

Source Deep Possible Frequent storm Not expected Indications from groundwater opportunities surge linked studies (Annex Resources, for enhanced inundation with III) show that if Salinity and Low impact – as rainwater saline water well managed contamination protected from harvesting; poses a and use vertical saline although enhanced risk judiciously,

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Rainfall Cyclonic Temp. Components Sea-level rise Other remarks Increase Storms increase intrusion increases in from vertical deep aquifers rainfall infiltration can be used as Surface water intensities may source for Low risk, as present some drinking water salinity is well problems. for several within drinking decades. Water water quality needs to standards; this be monitored is because systematically rivers are and use for any freshened by other purposes the like industrial Brahmaputra and agricultural (Padma) should be not allowed.

Distribution Not expected Not expected Damage and Enhanced None disruption of coverage Network supply networks required, as coverage people living in outer areas demand for piped water supply due to increasing temperatures

Infrastructure Not expected From Possible risk Not Possible risk Increased from severe significant from severe To be secured incidences of cyclonic cyclonic storms local flooding – storms/storm PTW facility surge, hand and hand tube tube wells wells

Consumption Not expected Not expected Not expected Higher This is also ambient dependent on Demand side temperatures future issues will increase population water growth demand – projection. just as the demand for water increases in summary days

Based on present day summer consumption peak, a 10% increase has been assumed. These results in the average net per capita demand increasing to 132 l/day which can

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Rainfall Cyclonic Temp. Components Sea-level rise Other remarks Increase Storms increase be compared to the value of 152 l/day adopted in the Khulna study for 2050.

6.7.2 Drainage 211. Technologies for urban drainage have developed over a long period of time, though design criteria have been relatively constant. As a consequence, changes in climatic conditions, such as increasing rain intensities and more extreme weather events, such as thunderstorms, will most likely create problems particularly in the coastal areas. 212. From the baseline study it is seen that Amtali drainage system is not organized except for the large Khals that carry river water. Due to the lack of a proper urban drainage system, the township gets flooded very often. UDM study (Annex IV) has shown that even for the present day design storm conditions, about 92% of the urban area get flooded in highest two categories, with 62% falling under the top F3 flood category. With increasing rainfall and rising tidal flows induced by sea-level rise the situations of drainage congestion will worsen. Table 6-9 presents a matrix of climate change impacts on various components of the urban drainage infrastructure. Table 6-9 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Urban Drainage in Amtali Pourashava Components Sea-level Rainfall Cyclonic Temp. Other remarks rise/tidal Increase Storms Increase condition Flow within Backwater Increasing Surge Not UDM study the effect will rainfall inundation by expected shows that Pourashava reduce drainage amounts and cyclonic storms current drainage area capacity intensity during may be system cannot Primary Urban causing monsoon aggravated carry the design drains increasing season will storm flows. (pucca), severity of enhance the Climate change secondary drainage volume of the scenarios will drains, tertiary congestion water to be worsen this Khals carried condition. Except the Basuki Khal all other canals overflowed. Outflows to Will impact Not expected Cyclone induced Only Blocked culverts rivers and sea negatively surge conditions indirectly and sluice gates Sluice gates contributing to this will severely will worsen (Regulators) drainage impact drainage. climate change congestion impacts further. Urban Not expected Land-use Not expected Not The presence of Catchments changes will expected the large water Land-use, run- modify, many body/lake act as off cases increase a retention characteristics run-off during facility that will intense rainfall be helpful to events take away some of flow during

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extreme rains. 213. The UDM results show that the area under the heaviest flood category9 increases from about 62% to 77% under climate change conditions up to year 2050s (Figure 6-4). The UDM results also show that by enhancing the design cross-sections of the canals reduction in water overtopped canal conditions can be achieved. Due to large inaccuracies in both RCM rainfall simulations and the UDM system, these quantitative results should be used as guidance in conjunction with local experiences of the community. (%)

F0:10-30 cm, F1:31-90 cm, F2: 91-180 cm and F3: 181-300 cm

Figure 6-4 Percentage of flood affected areas under different categories** in Amtali urban area for baseline and climate change conditions in 2050s.

6.7.3 Flood Control/Disaster Preparedness 214. There is as yet no clear indication about the future frequencies of intense cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal area (IPCC, 2012). This report also states “increase in mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed is likely, although increases may not occur in all tropical regions”. However as even the current threats from severe cyclonic storms are immense it is prudent to build resilience (World Bank, 2010). 215. Embankments have provided protection to the polders against monsoon tides and storm surge they have been often breached particularly when struck by very severe cyclones. Regular tidal action and heavy rainfall can also cause slow damage. Toe and slope erosion can be enhanced by heightened tidal action by vigorous monsoon conditions and heavy rainfall respectively. 216. Polder around Amtali (No. 43/1) was severely damaged during above storm surges. There are four main reasons for embankment breaches and damages of polders during the past cyclone. They are:

9 F0:10-30 cm, F1:31-90 cm, F2: 91-180 cm and F3: 181-300 cm

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i. Over topping of Embankment and Infrastructure ii. Toe erosion of embankment iii. Embankment Slope erosion or local cut iv. In adequate O&M 217. Heavy rainfall and tidal flows can cause siltation to cover the regulators, water control structures and their gates making them inoperative. 6.8. Climate Resilient Options 218. A wide range of adaption options were considered to before identifying specific options for each township. The Table 6-10 lists the range of adaptation options considered. Table 6-10 Options considered for climate resilience No. Sub-sector Adaptation options considered 1 Water Supply Structural Sustained sources of quality freshwater that can meet future growth demands from groundwater aquifers Sustained sources of quality freshwater that can meet future growth demands from surface-water sources Mix of piped water and deep hand tube wells to cover and sustain a broader coverage throughout the Pourashava Non-structural Financial Management of water supply system Programme to sensitise the community regarding safe and economical water use and hygienic practices 2 Drainage System Structural and Flood Re-excavate drainage canals Control/Disaster Increasing the height of flood and road embankments Management O&M of Drainage Infrastructures Installation of Pumping Station with consequent maintenance Important infrastructures in raised flood proof areas e.g. Pourashava’s, power station, school, hospital, fuel station etc. Improve Road Embankments Provide more cross culverts Provide more improved river outfalls Increase Channel Capacity Embankment Erosion Protection Increase Tidal Outfall Capacities Non-structural Improved Flood Warning Flood Zoning Preservation of Water Retention Areas, e.g. ponds and wetlands

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Greening of Urban areas Preservation of existing forest and afforestation Enhance participation by conducting awareness and capacity building events and encourage sharing to bring-in local knowledge for flood management and drainage Improve Building Codes to build climate resilience - recommend Flood Proofing of Housing by house plinth level raising; making house plinths open for uninterrupted drainage of flood water Prohibition of Encroachment of Natural Drainage Canals Planning Considerations at Regional and Local Level

3 Disaster Construct more multi-purpose cyclone shelters with - separate Preparedness toilet for women and facilities for the disabled and infants), high level water supply available during floods and multi- disciplinary use (like primary school, community clinic etc., health care) High earth made land above flood level and storm surge levels) – so that during emergency this place can be used to protect the lives of cattle and able to preserve other tangible asset. 4 Sanitation Structural Promote private households and where not feasible provide Community latrines; Provide adequate public latrines, and latrines in all schools Proper desludging and sludge management including vacuum pumping. Non-structural Promote raised latrines above flood level Strengthening sanitary section of Pourashavas Concerned national agencies may provide technical assistance to Pourashava. Awareness raising and motivation

5 Solid Waste Structural Management Construct sanitary dumping ground Proper collection and disposal system (including segregation); Non-structural Master Plan of Pourashava’s should earmark location of sanitary dumping ground/landfill Promote private sector participation

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Concerned national agencies may provide technical assistance to Pourashava 6 Public Health Structural Improvement of health complexes and health education Improve water supply (water quality) and sanitation management. Locate health centres in higher ground and more secure areas that is relatively free from flooding Non-structural Ensure posting of adequate staff/Professionals Surveillance measures for climate sensitive diseases separately or incorporate it in the existing national disease surveillance programme. Capacity building /training of health professionals on climate change and its health impacts to deal with future adversity. Awareness programmes on climate change impacts on human health to build community’s Resilience. Collaborate with other sectors to integrate health aspects into current action plans addressing climate change.

7 Other Wider Road construction along with link roads, footpath, Infrastructures proper drainage system (Roads, Bridges, Culverts and bridges all over the town to improve drainage Culverts, Ghats etc) Ghats for smooth transportation of passengers and goods Ramp for goods loading and unloading and Truck stand Bus Terminal/stand including sheds

6.8.1 Water Supply 219. Using deep ground water as source for municipal drinking water supply seems to the most climate resilient option for Amtali. The deep ground water aquifer is in safe condition with sustained availability in future and quality of groundwater is good. Ground water originated by Meghna-Jumuna flood plain and its source is rechargeable on geological time-scales. Moreover fresh aquifer thickness is almost 40m, though sand grain size is fine to medium but it permeability rate is good and water yield is also acceptable limit. Water supply options for Amtali Pourashava are discussed next.

6.8.2 Options for water supply infrastructure in Amtali Pourashava To Adapt to climate Present situation To meet current Infrastructural Deficits change Water Supply:  Ensure safe water for drinking and  Increase in water demand other domestic uses 24 hours delivery due to increased services (by increasing public temperatures  Pourashava has awareness on economic use of water)  Local population to be

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To Adapt to climate Present situation To meet current Infrastructural Deficits change 2 Production  To meet water demand for the year encouraged adopt Tube Wells 2050, at least 3 Production Tube Wells, rainwater harvesting (PTWs) of which 2 Over Head Tanks and 32 km  Measures needed to one is pipelines need to be installed in increase resilience of water inoperative. addition to the existing ones. supply system needed.  Ensure safe drinking water in the (Protection of pumping  One overhead cyclone shelters during flood times station and electricity supply) tank, 18 km  More hand pump tube wells (100) for pipeline network the city dwellers living outside the piped  In flood prone areas hand and 230 deep water supply area need to be installed. tube wells to be installed hand tube wells above flood level.  Programme to sensitise the community regarding safe and economical water  High level tube wells use and hygiene practices. needed in cyclone shelters  Consider provision of more OHT to supply water in emergencies

6.8.3 Options for Sanitation To meet current Infrastructural Present situation To Adapt to climate change Deficits

Sanitation  Public and  4 public toilet & 10 community and  New Public and community community 10 School toilet facilities needed to toilets need to be installed latrines (Only 2 be installed ; above flood level public toilet exist)  Toilets need installing at first floor  High level toilets needed in  Desludging of pit level in Cyclone shelters Cyclone shelters. latrines  Efficient sludge management system  Sludge treatment facilities inadequate needed to be introduced need installing above flood level  1,500 pit latrine required to be replaced / improved  Population need help in constructing high level latrines

Solid waste management :    No dumping dumping ground required Dumping ground needs installing above flood level ground  Adequate dumping vehicle (1 trucks, 20 vans) required  slaughter house needs to be established

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6.8.4 Options for Drainage and Flood Control/Disaster Preparedness To meet current Infrastructural To Adapt to climate Present situation Deficits change Flood control & River Erosion:  Excavation and re-excavation of  Higher level  Wards 1, 4, 5, 8 and 9 are Khals, beels, rivers and ponds embankments required to provide located outside the  Additional bank protection emergency refuges embankment and are severely needed to keep ward no. 1,4,5,8  Additional bank prone to tidal surge, while & 9 protected them from river protection required. Ward 4 and 8 are vulnerable erosion. to river erosion by the Paira  Additional Green belt  Green belt / afforestation are River. / afforestation needed around the embankment needed  Due to Cyclone, Flood and to save them from erosion. Tidal surges and river erosion  Construction of  ‘Amtali Dune’ and ‘Sobujbag lake’ people have lost agricultural embankments to are needed to come under lands, homesteads, and other protect essential integrated ‘flood control and assets. infrastructure. drainage system’ – through which  Frequent displacement of the water of tidal surge and high households, other rainfalls can easily drain out to infrastructure, increase in the Paira river. poverty level, financial crisis and increase in food prices.  These phenomena lead them to forced migration and fishing community loses their fishing equipment. Disaster Management and Cyclone Shelter:  Construct 2 more  Construct 4 more cyclone cyclone shelters  2 cyclone shelters were shelters with sufficient  constructed in ward 7 and 8 accommodation (special Construct additional that can accommodate environment should be kept for flood refuges   300-400 people. women, disable and infant) and Raise existing road multi-disciplinary use (like embankments to  During Cyclones Aila and Sidr primary school, community clinic provide flood refuges the water level in many places etc.)  Provide water supply was higher than 5 m above at first floor level to  ground level. People took Enhance necessary facilities in Cyclone shelters the Cyclone shelters for women shelter at public places and  Provide sanitation at and men during flood time (with safe private houses. first floor level to adequate safe water supply and  Cyclone shelters Tube wells installed at ground hygienic sanitation) and separate  Encourage people in level and toilets constructed in areas for livestock. the 1st floor were under water low-lying areas to during the flood causing a  The Eidgah/Praying Field may be raise their house severe scarcity of drinking formed above flood level – so plinth level above water and sanitation problems that during emergency this place flood level for the people. can be used (during disaster) to

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To meet current Infrastructural To Adapt to climate Present situation Deficits change  Lack of knowledge regarding protect the lives of cattle and disaster preparedness preserve other tangible asset particularly for fishermen,  Intensive early warning (local women, old and disable language) to mass community persons before cyclone and other well managed and integrated preparation are needed to adopt during pre, post and during disaster period Drainage System  The drainage system of the  Supplement and modify existing  Additional drainage pourashava is not well drainage to ensure smooth and as identified by managed and well planned easy operation of the drainage modelling to be  Lack of drainage causes system (pucca for urban based constructed to prolonged water logging wards like 2, 3, 4, 5 & 6) and overcome additional during normal rainfall and semi-pucca for agricultural wards flooding from climate flood time like 1,7,8 & 9) change (Annex IV). The following Khals  Flooding causes problems for  Construct and improve outfalls to activate blocked sluice gates. needed to be re- ’mobility and a bad smell from excavated: waterlogged areas that  Specific activities proposed :  Khal connecting M.U. adversely affects public  9 sluice gate/outlet are required secondary school health. to be constructed (2 under wards south side to Mofiz  The main Khal has 2 outfalls 1-3, 4 under wards 4-6 and 3 Talukders house with sluice gates, of which one under wards 7-9 respectively) for  Khal connecting is blocked. proper drainage system; Badhghat Chowrasta  Remove pollution from lake water to Shantinagar  Canals are needed to be dug for Akhrabari smooth draining of flood water  Khal connecting Pachim Chowra (WAPDA sluice) to R&H box culvert Chowra

6.8.5 Options for Other Infrastructure (Roads, Bridges, Culverts, Ghats etc) To Adapt to climate Present situation To meet current Infrastructural Deficits change Road:

 Road communication  Wider Road construction along with link  Some road along with link road, road, foot path, proper drainage system embankments to be footpath, proper and required numbers of culverts all over raised to provide flood drainage system and the town with special emphasis on: refuges required numbers of  Sadar road from AK School to New

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To Adapt to climate Present situation To meet current Infrastructural Deficits change culverts are Bazar embankment. inadequate  Ward no. 1: From R&H road to Fire Service (via WAPDA Office)  Ward no. 9:From LohaBottala to WAPDA  Construction of adequate number of bypass and link roads  Construct divider in the Main road  Construction of RCC road on proposed circular road (from AK School to Loda bridge) & on River embankment of BWDB maintaining upper flood level  Inadequate ghat  Construction of required number of facility o Cargo ghat -2 nos. o Trawler ghat - 2 nos. o Kheyaghat -1 no.  No bus  Construction of new Bus stand/Terminal stand/terminal with with adequate Passengers Shade passenger shed (separate arrangement for women)

220. Some of the actions to meet current deficits in the infrastructure have been proposed in the draft Master Plan for Amtali. The next section gives a brief overview of proposal relevant to the CDTA project. 6.9. Master Planning Process 221. Most development in Amtali Pourashava has been unplanned and sporadic. It can be said that the existing natural drainage structure of the Amtali Planning area is being interrupted by the developments that have taking place over recent years. 222. The Draft Master Plan package consists of three levels and types in a hierarchical order. These are: the Structure Plan (SP) or general development plan; the Urban Area Plan (UAP) and the Ward Action Plan (WAP). Each of these plan types has been formulated to serve particular needs and functions. 223. The following major challenges are being faced in preparing the Final Master Plan for Amtali Pourashava:  Identifying the exact locations of khas lands,  Integrating the existing alienated agglomerated areas located within the planning area,  Determining the study area,  Stop the existing trend of encroaching on the fertile agricultural land  Consideration of climate change,  Appropriate institutional framework to take care the plan, 224. During the preparation of Draft Master Plan, the Master Plan Consultants have reviewed all the relevant policies, Acts and different plans prepared by different development authorities.

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This exercise has provided a broad guideline to the issues and aspects to be included in the Master Plan.

6.9.1 Physical Growth Directions 225. As far as the physical growth direction of Amtali Pourashava is concerned, the Pourashava is expanding along the big khal in an east to north direction. There is a major road network, which is connecting the north and south parts of the Pourashava and links the Pourashava with other areas of Amtali Upazila. Commercial development is already expanding along the major roads. Moreover, a major portion of western part remains agricultural land. The existing growth agglomerations in the core area accommodate most of the residential, commercial and administrative areas. Taking advantage of higher land, residential areas have developed on the area bounded by a big canal that is accelerating growth of the Pourashava on the south and east side. The present and proposed road network will be a major determinant for growth of the Pourashava. 226. As reported by the Master Plan Consultant, relevant proposals for future land use Plan of Amtali Pourashava are:  Partial Mixed land use will be encouraged  Town Centre will be developed  Proportionate land use will promoted as per planning standards  Proper zoning will be developed (Residential, Administrative. Commercial, Industrial, and Agricultural) 227. The major Master Plan proposals relevant to the CDTA are:  All disconnected khals to be re-excavated to restore the natural drainage of the Pourashava. This will reduce the drainage problem of the area to some extent  A Green Belt provision has been proposed on both sides of the Khals to stop the encroachment  A Solid Waste Dumping site should be established for the Pourashava 228. The data analysis has provided some basis for undertaking a demand assessment for different pertinent sectors and sub-sectors. In the process of preparing the Draft Master Plan, the Master Plan Consultants have made various sectoral and sub-sectoral projections so as to determine the space requirements for different services and facilities needed for the people of to-day and of tomorrow. 229. Apart from development proposal in the planning package there are recommendations on plan implementation that include, legal measures, capacity building of executing agencies, financing of development and future approach to urban development.

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7. Galachipa 230. Galachipa Pourashava is located within the Galachipa Upazila which is the biggest Upazila in Patuakhali district. It is located between latitudes 21°48' and 22°21' North and longitudes 90°15' and 90°37' East. The Upazila is bounded on the north by Bauphal Upazila and Patuakhali Upazila, on the east by Dashmina and Char Fasson Upazilas, on the south by the Bay of Bengal and Kalapara Upazila and on the west by Amtali of Barguna Zila. The Pourashava covers an area of about 4.51 sq. km. The Pourashava contains 9 wards and 2 mouzas. 231. Galachipa Pourashava is bordered by the River Ramnabad, on an exposed coast having direct interaction with the natural phenomena of the river, coast- estuary and the Bay of Bengal. Moreover, it is greatly influenced by the river network and khals crossing the Upazila. It is located about 32 km from the sea. 232. Galachipa was elevated to a Pourashava in March 1997. The town lies behind BWDB embankments to the north and west which protect it from the Galachipa River. Paddy lands lie to the south and east of the town. The Thana Nirbahi Officer (TNO10)’s Office road and College road run south and east from the launch ghat in the north-west of the town. The Bazar and market area are centred on College road with the administrative area to the east of the TNO Office road. The main residential areas are west of the administrative area and east of the Bazar and market areas. The area east of Boyalia road and south of the Hospital complex is a paddy area. 233. Due to the adjacent rivers, Galachipa is a famous port for rice and other crops. A large "Haat11" used to take place every Saturday of the week based on the river. It is one of the largest "Haat" of greater Barisal. Another very famous river of Galachipa is "'Agunmukha'". In Bengali it is said "Sundarer Majhe Voyongkar" or “dangerous as well as beautiful” at the same time. 234. Galachipa Pourashava’s land area has increased considerably due to accretion process. Pourashava sources have informed that most of the land outside of the polder 55/1 is new from about 15-20 years. In Galachipa Upzila yearly accretion is around 40- 60 ha (ADB, 2003). The accreted lands are used for grazing cattle and to produce local rice varieties, creating employment for many poorer households. Officially, this land is distributed among the landless households. 7.1. Topography 235. Under the UTIDP project for preparation of Master Plans a topographic and physical feature survey was conducted by the Sheltech consultants Pvt. Ltd. (SCPL) in 2012 (LGED, 2012). The Galachipa Paurashava town is located in the South Central region of the coastal zone. The minimum and maximum ground level varies from 1.5 m to 4.2 m and the average height is about 2.43 m. The physical survey found that all the wards have flat land. Figure 7-1 shows the topography of the Pourashava along with the critical infrastructure. It can be seen that inherent knowledge have already help most of the key infrastructure to be located on relatively higher ground.

10 Now TNO converted/shifted to UNO – Upazila Nirbahi Officer 11Haat refers to rural market held generally twice a week

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Figure 7-1 Topographic Map for Galachipa Pourashava showing critical Infrastructure (Source: LGED, 2011a)

7.2. Land Use 236. A land use survey was conducted for the UTIDP. The survey results shows that there is dominance of agricultural land (44%) followed by residential land (37%) and water bodies (10%). The survey clearly shows that the land use pattern reflects substantial urbanized land use. Key results of the survey are summarised below with present land use classes shown in Table 7-1. The land-use map for Galachipa Pourashava is given at Figure 7-2. 237. Galachipa Pourashava has 12.7 ha of road area, with 1.2 ha of kutcha road, 4.3 ha, of semi-pucca roads and 7.2 ha of pucca roads. There are. There are 44 bridges, 1 box culvert, 6 pipe culverts and 2 sluice gates in Galachipa Pourashava. 238. About 70% of the households own their house with 30% living in rented houses.

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Table 7-1 Landuse of Galachipa Landuse Category Area (ha) % 1 Residential 165.6 36.7 2 Commercial 7.7 1.7 Industrial/ Processing and 3 3.7 0.8 Manufacturing 4 Education and Research 5.3 1.2 5 Community Services 1.3 0.3 6 Service Activity 0.4 0.1 7 Recreational Facility 0.3 0.1 8 Government Services 3.5 0.8 9 Non Government Services 0.4 0.1 10 Urban Green Space 1.6 0.4 11 Agricultural 198.1 43.9 12 Mixed Use 0.6 0.1 13 Circulation Network 12.7 2.8 14 Water Body 46.9 10.4 15 Transport & Communication 1.5 0.3 (Source: Land Use Survey, 2012) 239. At present, there is predominance (74%) of kutcha structures in Galachipa Pourashava which is followed by semi jhupri and tin shed structures. However, about 80% of the houses at both Ward No. 5 and 7 are kutcha. Most single storied structures are pucca structures. Semi pucca houses have brick walls and tin roofs whereas tin shed houses are made with tin sheets. Kutcha houses are mostly built with mud wall and roofs are made with tin sheet and golpata, 240. The Transportation and Traffic Management Survey results reveal that no public or private bus service is available for intra-zonal movement of passengers. Rickshaws are the most dominant transport for intra-zonal movement. The water transport network of Galachipa Pourashava has significant importance in carrying goods

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Figure 7-2 Galachipa land use map (Source: LGED, 2011a)

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7.3. Socio-economic status

7.3.1 Demographics 241. According to the national census of 2011 as listed in Table 7-2, Galachipa Pourashava had a population of 21,200 with 4,967 households giving an average household size of 4.3. . The latest Pourashava reports have given the population figure to be 30,685. There are 11 slum areas containing approximately 18% of the population. Table 7-2 Galachipa census data 2011 Ward Area House- Population Sex Density 2 2 Number (km ) hold Total Male Female Ratio per km 01 0.27 595 2,483 1,279 1,204 106 9,196 02 0.28 502 2,122 1,080 1,042 104 7,579 03 0.39 326 1,430 695 735 95 3,667 04 0.16 560 2,275 1,255 1,020 123 14,219 05 0.23 446 1,755 915 840 109 7,630 06 0.68 720 3,352 1,717 1,635 105 4,929 07 0.35 746 3,148 1,632 1,516 108 8,994 08 0.36 524 2,301 1,158 1,143 101 6,392 09 0.67 548 2,334 1,157 1,177 98 3,484 Total 3.39 4,967 21,200 10,888 10,312 106 6,254 (Source: BBS (2011) Community Report, Population Census Patuakhali) 242. A projection was made by the project team of ward populations up a design horizon of 2050 as shown in Table 7-3. Table 7-3 Galachipa population projection by ward Ward Total 2,011 2020 2030 2040 2050 No (Ha) 1 57 2,483 2,620 2,765 2,927 3,103 2 109 2,122 2,484 3,225 4,180 5,290 3 66 1,430 2,800 3,810 6,216 8,840 4 147 2,275 2,538 2,594 2,613 2,632 5 24 1,755 2,011 2,070 2,196 2,440 6 37 3,352 3,850 5,013 5,213 5,994 7 242 3,148 3,438 3,920 4,563 4,785 8 128 2,301 2,633 3,402 4,350 4,960 9 83 2,334 2,880 3,710 4,421 5,844 Total 893 21,200 25,253 30,508 36,679 43,888 Growth rate 1.96% 1.91% 1.86% 1.81% (Source: CDTA team estimate)

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7.3.2 Household Income 243. Estimates made during FGD shows that the average monthly income was less that Tk. 6,000 in about 25% of the household that fell in the very poor category. Households in the Poor category were about 45%. Out of the three Pourashavas, Galachipa had the maximum percentage of households in the poor and very poor category. The UTIDP survey also shows maximum proportion of households in the poor category. Wards 1, 5 and 8 are reported to have the affluent households.

7.3.3 Occupation/Literacy rates 244. Study results show that service, agriculture and day labor are predominant occupations as in the other two Pourashavas. In Galachipa agriculture based work accounted for 20%. Only 10% were employed in services and 18% worked as day labour. About 9% were involved in small businesses. 245. Galachipa has a 65% literacy rate with 60% male and 40% female literacy rate. 7.4. Consultations with local residents 246. In a Focus Group Discussion (FGD) in May 2012 the group drawn from local stakeholders and residents identified the climatic vulnerabilities and impacts as listed in Table 7-4. It should be noted that some of the statements that additional overhead tanks, tube wells and pumping stations are required (see Sections 5,6 & 7)are incorrect but reflect the current failure to meet the water demand of the residents. Table 7-4 Climate Vulnerability Matrix and Impacts assessed by FGD

1 Prone to Cyclone/ Flood/Tidal surges and River Erosion − Ward No. 1 and 2 are outside the Embankment and severely prone to frequent flooding by the Ramnabad River. − Ward 1 -70%, W2- 50%, W3- 40%, W4- 15%, W5- 30% and W6- 15%; are outside the embankment and prone to frequent floods. The Pourashava Bhaban is in Ward 2 and is outside the embankment. − Due to Cyclone, Flood and Tidal surges and river erosion people have lost agricultural production, homesteads, immovable and movable assets. There is frequent displacement of households, damage to sanitation infrastructure, increase in poverty level, financial crisis and increase in food prices. These impacts lead to forced migration particularly the male earners of households; increased incidence of water borne diseases and fishing community losses of their fishing equipment

2 Cyclone Shelter − Two cyclone shelters one in each of Ward 5 and Ward 9; were constructed poorly with insufficient internal space. During the last two Cyclones, toilets and tube wells installed on the ground floor went under water causing a scarcity of safe drinking water and immense suffering of people for defecation.

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3 Salinity Intrusion − There is a scarcity of safe and fresh drinking water and water for domestic use due to saline intrusion and iron. This is a year round problem made worse in times of flooding. Salinity is also causing gradual degradation in the quality of land, reducing productivity and damaging crops.

4 Knowledge Management on Disaster Preparedness − Lack of knowledge regarding disaster preparedness particularly among women (councillors) caused extensive and sudden loss of properties and human lives.

5 Water supply - Shortage of Overhead Tank − The PS has 1 OHT, which are quite insufficient to meet the needs of consumers. With the existing facility, the Pourashava can supply water for about 10,000 or 34% of the population. − For slums, only 8% households have been covered under water supply system by installing community based water points, the rest take drinking water from DTW and for other needs from Pond/River

6 Water Supply - Production Well − Currently the Pourashava has 2 wells, which are inadequate in capacity. Suggested for another 4 production wells. In the discussions during the LGED meeting with Pourashava representatives, it was mentioned that although river water nearby is not saline, operating experience of water treatment plant at Barguna has not been satisfactory and as such not acceptable for further implementation.

7 Water supply - Pump House − There is presently only one pumping station which is inadequate in capacity. Pump capacity needs to be increased.

8 Poor drainage system − The existing khals/canals have been silted up in many places causing the drainage flow to be very slow. − Also, drainage channels are encroached and silted up.

9 Sewerage network − The PS does not have any sewerage network. On-site sanitation has been adopted.

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10 Waste Management − Due to lack of a waste dumping ground people indiscriminately throw waste around the town causing environmental pollution and blocking of drainage flows. − For collection and transportation of waste, the Pourashava is lacking trolleys, vans and a pick up point.

11 Other social problems − Lack of employment − Incidence of polygamy reported to be 2%. − Incidence of early marriage is nearly 2%. − Incidence of drug addiction was reported to 15% among the adult age 15-30 years

(Source: FGD at Pourashava 21-24 May 2012-CDTA)

7.5. Current Infrastructure and Services

7.5.1 Water Supply 247. People mostly use deep tube-well and supplied water for drinking. 34% households have water supply connections; the remaining households depend on Hand Pump DTWs. Shallow groundwater is unacceptably saline. 248. Under the DPHE-DANIDA water supply and sanitation project two PTWs with 1 km transmission pipeline and 18 km distribution line were installed in 1999. Later on Pourashava installed another 8 km pipeline totaling up to 26 km at present. Water from the production wells, is supplied through the only OHT available at present. It is estimated that about 76% of the Pourashava area is covered by water supply piped networks – household connections and standpipes. The rest of the population has access to public and private hand tube-wells. Details of Water Supply provided in Annex 6. 249. Water test reports of 1999 and 2012 do not indicate any salinity increase in ground water. Hydro-geological status shows that the aquifer is well protected by confining clay layers.

7.5.2 Drainage 250. Galachipa Khal is the main canal that drains the waters of the town into the Ramnabad River. The Dakua or College khal originally flowed into the Galachipa River near to the present launch ghat. The outlet was closed when the embankment was constructed. The khal now discharges through a 2-vent drainage regulator on the north-western side of town and drains the present Bazar and market area. To the south-west of the town, the Madina Mosque khal drains the south and west of the town. 251. Primary drains at Galachipa are about 36 km of canals or khals covering 11.4 ha. There is no secondary drainage. There are 5 km of Tertiary drains that collect discharged water from households together with storm water and are mainly manmade (some being upgraded now). Natural canals have an important role in drainage system. Water bodies comprising ditches and ponds cover about 35.5 ha. There are 83 ditches covering 2.9 ha and 457 ponds comprising 32.6 ha in area. There are no Secondary drains in the town.

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7.5.3 Flood Control/Disaster Preparedness 252. Galachipa Pourashava is protected by BWDB Polder 55/1. The polder embankments protect the Pourashava against flood from the rivers while drainage inside the polder is affected through drainage khals with regulators at the outfall. The polder is 47 km long with 11 drainage sluices and 13 flushing inlets. Within the polder the maximum spot level is 5.71 mPWD, the minimum level is 0.46 mPWD and the average ground level is 1.72 mPWD. However, a significant part of Galachipa Pourashava is outside the polder. 253. Galachipa is located adjacent to Bay of Bengal and is vulnerable to the flooding from cyclones and linked storm surges. The vulnerable period is between April-May and October- November when tropical cyclones form in the Bay of Bengal. Cyclones have struck the area in 1970, 1988, 1991, 2007 & 2008. Ward numbers 2, 3 and 4 are the most affected by flooding from high tides. There are two cyclone shelters where one is in each of Ward 5 and another one is in Ward 9.

7.5.4 Sanitation 254. 98% of population served by sanitary latrines with 40% having septic tanks, 40% having water sealed slab latrine and 18% Simple Pit Latrines. There are only three public toilets, and there is no solid waste management system in place.

7.5.5 Public Health 255. The Upazila Health Complex (UHC) in Galachipa is responsible for providing public health services although there are a few private doctors and pharmacies in the town. In the UHC there are 10 doctors and 16 nurses/health technicians. 256. During periods of flooding, drinking water sources are affected and contaminated as the piped network and hand pump tube wells become submerged. Consequently, the communities suffer from water-sanitation related diseases. Recently, Cyclones Sidr and Aila had a severe impact on public health as the incidence of disease during the post disaster period rose to epidemic levels. 7.6. Requirements to meet Gaps and Growth

7.6.1 Water Supply 257. The present piped water supply covers only 34% of the households. The Pourashava needs to provide safe water for drinking and other domestic uses 24 hours delivery services to cover the whole population. 258. It is necessary to increase the coverage of piped-water supply to larger percentage of the population and meet future demands of population growth. It is also necessary to ensure safe drinking water and water for domestic use throughout the year and make provisions for safe drinking water in the cyclone shelters during disasters. As different section (socio-economic) of people live in the Pourashava, and there are some fringe areas with scattered households, different options have been considered in assessing the future water demands. Similar to Amtali case, different types of service connections are detailed. The projected service area coverage between 2012 and 2050 is shown in Table 7-5.

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Table 7-5 Projected Service Coverage in Galachipa Population Population coverage by Population No. of HC No. of ST coverage Total Year Population House coverage (av. HH (1 for 3~4 by Shared connection Connection by HTW (%) size 4.5 ) family) Tap (%) (%) 2012 21,616 40 0 60 1,912 0 1,912 2020 25,253 45 10 45 2,525 160 2,685 2030 30,508 50 10 40 3,390 194 3,584 2040 36,679 60 10 30 4,890 233 5,123 2050 43,888 70 5 25 6,827 139 6,966 259. To meet these demands it is estimated that at least 5 PTWs, I OHT and about 20 km of additional pipelines for enhancements in the supply network. More hand pump DTWs and awareness raising programs to sensitize the community regarding safe water use and hygiene practices. 260. Financial Management of the water supply services need to be improved with proper monitoring of consumption and systematic maintenance of the budget and accounts.

7.6.2 Drainage 261. A Master Plan for drainage was developed and a few drains built under the DPHE/GoB project. Most of the plan is yet to be implemented. Residential area of blocks 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 of Galachipa Pourashava usually suffers from drainage congestion during rains and needs to clear the drainage network using own interventions. 262. The drainage network is insufficient at the study area with a lack of drainage outlets and reservoirs. The drainage system got reduced both by horizontal and vertical dimension in the city area. Encroachment and siltation have turned the large canal into almost a non- distinguishable small drain.

Photograph 7-1 Galachipa Khal in the market area clogged with garbage and constrained by encroachment (pic. credit: Saiful Islam). 263. Lack of drainage causes prolonged water logging during normal rainfall and tidal flooding. This causes problems for ’movement within the town and unhygienic conditions in waterlogged

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7.6.3 Flood Control/Disaster Preparedness 264. About 47 km of embankment of polder 55/1 surrounding Galachipa Upazila was severely damaged during storm surges associated with Cyclones Alia and Sidr. Parts of the embankment were washed away, parts were breached and formed flowing channels and some reaches of embankment were eroded and deformed. Gates of the regulators were either broken or damaged. Siltation covered the regulators, water control structures and the gates to make them inoperative. Repair work of the Embankment being taken up under the ECRRP program being implemented through World Bank funding. 265. Two Wards are outside the embankment and are prone to frequent flooding from the Ramnbad River. 266. There are inadequate numbers of Cyclone Shelters and Tube wells installed at ground level and toilets constructed in the 1st floor were under water during the flood/cyclone causing a severe scarcity of drinking water and sanitation problems for the people. 267. Lack of knowledge regarding disaster preparedness particularly for fishermen, women, old and disable persons. Effective early warning system to reach all levels of the community is required to ensure preparedness.

7.6.4 Sanitation & Public Health 268. Efficient sludge management system required to ensure sanitation in the Pourashava. 269. Unhygienic conditions are caused by the discharge of septic tank effluent to drains; the emptying of septic tanks into drains and unused land, particularly during floods. 270. Remedial infrastructure required include: i. Increase in the number of public toilets to about 20 and 25 community toilet needed to be installed ; ii. Efficient sludge management system needed to be introduced 271. There is currently no Solid water management adopted. There is a need to identify dumping ground with adequate number of secondary stations to have a proper solid waste management system for the Pourashava. There were expressed need for establishing slaughter houses by the community. 272. Health care staff and professionals at health center are inadequate to cater to the needs of the Pourashava, particularly during exposure to severe cyclones and other such adverse conditions when there disease incidence reach epidemic scales. Also, there is need to maintain systematic records to enable future assessments, trends in diseases prevalence, and quantification of needs thorough more rigorous analysis.

7.6.5 Other Infrastructure 273. There were expressed requirements for improved roads to link with the main highway and having adequate number of culverts. There is also a need for improving ferry terminals and need for a bus terminal. Improvement of different sections of the roads was recommended during the focused group discussions.

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274. Construction dyke (high earth made land above flood level) – so that during flooding, it can be used to protect lives of cattle and able to preserve other tangible asset. Wider road construction with RCC along with link road, foot path, proper drainage system and required numbers of culverts all over the town are to be provisioned. Ghat facilities and loading unloading facilities were also required to be improved or created. 7.7. Impacts of Climate Change 275. Climate change impacts are considered in the particular context of Galachipa Pourashava to derive specific issues for interventions. This section tries to present specific analysis with regards to water supply, drainage, and flood control & disaster preparedness. Sanitation and public health impacts have not been dealt separately under each Pourashava as the level of information in these sub-sectors are quite generic for which the impacts of climate change remain very similar across the three town considered. However, as Amtali and Galachipa are quite similar in terms of development, there express lot of similarities especially in the case of water supply. This demonstrates that very similar planning interventions can be applied for both Pourashavas.

7.7.1 Water Supply 276. Climate change impact on water supply services of the Pourashava is assessed on each of the four broad components viz. Water source, Distribution, Infrastructure (water production) and Consumption (demand side). 277. Table 7-6 presents a matrix of climate change impacts on various components of the water supply infrastructure. Table 7-6 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on water supply at Galachipa Pourashava Components Sea-level rise Rainfall Cyclonic Temp. Other remarks Increase Storms increase

Source Deep Possible Frequent storm Not expected Indications from groundwater opportunities surge linked studies (Annex Resources, for enhanced inundation with III) show that if Salinity and Low impact – as rainwater saline water well managed contamination protected from harvesting; poses a and use vertical saline although enhanced risk judiciously, intrusion increases in from vertical deep aquifers Surface water rainfall infiltration can be used as intensities may source for Low risk, as present some drinking water salinity is well problems. for several within drinking decades. Water water quality needs to standards; this be monitored is because systematically rivers are and use for any freshened by other purposes the like industrial Brahmaputra and agricultural (Padma) should be not allowed.

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Distribution Not expected Not expected Damage and Enhanced None disruption of coverage Network supply networks required, as coverage people living in outer areas demand for piped water supply due to increasing temperatures

Infrastructure Not expected From Possible risk Not Possible risk Increased from severe significant from severe To be secured incidences of cyclonic cyclonic storms local flooding – storms/storm PTW facility surge, hand and hand tube tube wells wells

Consumption Not expected Not expected Not expected Higher This is also ambient dependent on Demand side temperatures future issues will increase population water growth demand – projection. just as the demand for water increases in summary days

Based on present day summer consumption peak, a 10% increase has been assumed. This results net per capita demand increases to 144 l/day which can be compared to the value of 152 l/day adopted in the Khulna study for 2050.

7.7.2 Drainage 278. As urban drainage systems are often designed based on historical climate they are likely to be under designed for future climate change situation when rainfall intensities are likely to increase. Land-use changes, particularly urbanization may also contribute to enhance this problem further. 279. From the baseline study it is seen that Galachipa drainage system is not well planned, but basically network of natural canals with severe deficits due to encroachment, blockages due to solid waste dumping and inadequate outlets into the main river. UDM study (Annex IV) has shown that even for the present day design storm conditions several sections of the main Khals overflow resulting in inundation of the relatively flat surround area. Almost whole of the urban area of the Pourashava gets inundated with 73% being covered by the lowest flooding

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report category12. With increasing rainfall and rising tidal flows induced by sea-level rise the situations of drainage congestion will worsen. Table 7-7 presents a matrix of climate change impacts on various components of the urban drainage infrastructure. The UDM model runs show an increase in flooded areas under the 10-30 cm category from 73% (under baseline) to 80% with climate change scenarios for the 2050s. Although this result indicating increases in area under flooding with climate change is consistent with that for the other Pourashavas, the confinement to lowest flood category is in contrast to Amtali and Pirojpur results where the flood depth class also show a shift to higher depth categories. This is perhaps due to the inadequacy in resolution of the digital topographic data or DEM used in the UDM. Table 7-7 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Urban Drainage in Galachipa Pourashava Components Sea-level Rainfall Cyclonic Temp. Other remarks rise/tidal Increase Storms increase condition Flow within Backwater Increasing Surge Not UDM study the effect will rainfall inundation by expected shows that all Pourashava reduce drainage amounts and cyclonic storms the main Khals area capacity intensity during may be needed to be Primary Urban causing monsoon aggravated redesigned to drains increasing season will take the (pucca), severity of enhance the additional secondary drainage volume of the rainfall amounts drains, tertiary congestion water to be from Climate Khals carried Change Scenarios 2050s Outflows to Will impact Not expected Cyclone induced Only Blocked culverts rivers and sea negatively surge conditions indirectly and sluice gates Sluice gates contributing to this will severely will worsen (Regulators) drainage impact drainage. climate change congestion impacts further. Urban Not expected Land-use Not expected Not Additional land Catchments changes will expected area available Land-use, run- modify, many due to accretion off cases increase will generate characteristics run-off during additional intense rainfall runoff. However events this will be outside the present polder area 280. The UDM results also show that by enhancing the design cross-sections of the canals reduction in water overtopped canal conditions can be achieved.

7.7.3 Flood Control/Disaster Preparedness 281. Current assessment of the IPCC on extremes does not give any clear indication about the future frequencies of intense cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal area (IPCC, 2012). It further states “increase in mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed is likely, although increases

12 F0:10-30 cm, F1:31-90 cm, F2: 91-180 cm and F3: 181-300 cm

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report may not occur in all tropical regions”. Despite such uncertainties, as even the current threats from severe cyclonic storms are immense, it is prudent to start adapting by building resilience (World Bank, 2010). 282. Embankments have provided protection to the polders against monsoon tides and storm surge they have been often breached particularly when struck by very severe cyclones. Regular tidal action and heavy rainfall can cause slow damage. Toe and slope erosion can be enhanced by heightened tidal action caused by vigorous monsoon conditions and heavy rainfall respectively. 7.8. Climate Resilient Options 283. As stated in Table 6-10 a wide range of adaptation option were considered. These are further illustrated in the following sub-sections.

7.8.1 Water Supply 284. The deep fresh groundwater aquifer thickness in Galachipa Pourashava is almost 75m, though sand grain size is fine to medium but it permeability rate is good and water yield is also acceptable limit. Up to year-2050 time horizon water extraction from deep aquifers in this area seems sustainable and its water quality meets drinking water standards. Moreover a thick impermeable (clayey silt) is deposited above permeable layer and this layer is separated upper brackish layer from deeper fresh layer. Water supply options for Amtali Pourashava are given in the next section.

7.8.2 Option for water supply infrastructure To meet current Infrastructural To Adapt to climate Present situation Deficits change Water Supply System:

The Pourashava has 2 Ensure safe water for drinking and Increase in water demand Production Tube Wells other domestic use throughout the due to increased (PTWs) and year temperatures 1 overhead tank, 26 km Meet water demand of the year Local population to be pipeline network and 357 2050, at least 5 PTWs, 1 OHT and encouraged to adopt deep hand tube wells 20 km pipelines need to be rainwater harvesting. installed in addition to the existing Measures needed to ones. increase resilience of water Ensure safe drinking water in the supply system needed. cyclone shelters during flood times (Protection of pumping More hand pump tube wells (300.) station and electricity supply) for the town dwellers living outside In flood prone areas hand the piped water supply area need tube wells to be installed to be installed. above flood level. Programme to sensitise the High level tube wells needed community regarding safe water in cyclone shelters use and hygiene practices. Consider provision of more OHT to supply water in emergencies

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7.8.3 Sanitation To meet current Infrastructural To Adapt to climate Present situation Deficits change Sanitation:

Public and community 15 public toilet & 150 community New Public and community latrines inadequate (Only toilets needed to be installed ; toilets need to be installed 3 public toilet existed) Efficient sludge management above flood level Desludging of pit latrines system needed to introduced High level toilets needed in inadequate Cyclone shelters. Sludge treatment facilities need installing above flood level Population need help in constructing high level latrines Solid waste management :

No dumping ground Dumping ground and 15 secondary Dumping ground needs No collection systems station are required installing above flood level Adequate dumping vehicles (15 vans) required Slaughter housed needed to established

7.8.4 Drainage and Flood Control/Disaster Preparedness To meet current Infrastructural To Adapt to climate Present situation Deficits change Flood control & River Erosion:

Two Wards are outside the Construction of new Higher level Embankment and are prone to embankments to protect exposed embankments required frequent flooding from the wards. to provide emergency Ramnabad River. Additional ‘river bank protection refuges If river floods, high tides, and required to reduce river bank Additional bank heavy rainfall occur at the same erosion. protection required. time as happened (in 1988) very Green belt/afforestation are Additional Green belt / extensive flooding can occur needed to be built around the afforestation needed Due to Cyclone, Flood and Tidal embankment for safety. A, high embankment is surges and river erosion people needed around the town have lost agricultural lands, core area to protect production, homesteads, and essential infrastructure. other assets. People forced frequent displacement of households, other infrastructure, increase in

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To meet current Infrastructural To Adapt to climate Present situation Deficits change poverty level, financial crisis and increase in food prices. Disaster Management and Cyclone Shelter:

Inadequate provision of cyclone Construct of adequate cyclone Construct additional shelters for the city dwellers shelters with sufficient cyclone shelters living outside the embankment. accommodation (special Construct additional Tube wells installed at ground environment needed to be kept flood refuges level and toilets constructed in for women, disable and infant) Raise existing road the 1st floor were under water and multi-disciplinary use (like embankments to during the flood/cyclone causing primary school, community clinic, provide flood refuges a severe scarcity of drinking health care and separate areas Provide water supply at water and sanitation problems for livestock, etc.) first floor level to for the people. Enhance necessary facilities in Cyclone shelters Lack of knowledge regarding the Cyclone shelters for women Provide sanitation at disaster preparedness and men during flood time (with first floor level to particularly for fishermen, adequate safe water supply and Cyclone shelters women, old and disable persons hygiene sanitation) Encourage people in Construction Dyke (high earth low-lying areas to raise made land above flood level) – their house plinth level so that during emergency this above flood level place can be used to protect the lives of cattle and able to preserve other tangible asset Intensive early warning (local language) to mobilise community before cyclone through mass media campaign Drainage System

The drainage system of the Existing khals need desilting and Additional drainage as pourashava is not well managed re-excavation and illegal identified by modelling and well planned encroachment removed. to be constructed to Lack of drainage causes The following Khals need to re- overcome additional prolonged water logging during excavated to carry design storm flooding from climate normal rainfall and flood time flows – change Causes problems for ’mobility Main Khal and a bad smell from Branch Khal waterlogged areas that Arambagh Khal adversely affects public health. Heliport Khal The major Khal of the city encroached and blocked by soil Improve drainage khal for long that hamper the proper drainage lasting and durable materials system. considering the level of floodwater.

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To meet current Infrastructural To Adapt to climate Present situation Deficits change Construct/improve outfalls sluices/regulates to activate blocked sluice gates.

7.8.5 Other Infrastructure To meet current Infrastructural To Adapt to climate Present situation Deficits change Road: Road:

Communication along link Wider road construction along with Some road road, footpaths, proper link road, foot path, proper embankments to be drainage system and required drainage system and required raised to provide flood numbers of culverts are not numbers of culverts all over the refuges adequate. town with special emphasis on : Sadar road needed to be raised 1.5 feet and minimum 16 feet wider and Sher e Bangla Road needed to be widened to a minimum 20 feet Construction of adequate number of bypass and link road widening of Road crossing & junction road RCC Construction on both the side of River embankment of WAPDA Inadequate ghat facility Construction of required number of Cargo ghat (2 nos.) Trawler ghat(3 nos.) & Kheyaghat (1no) for smooth movement of passengers and goods No bus stand/terminal with Construction of new Bus passenger shed stand/Terminal with adequate Passengers Shade (separate arrangement for women) Ramp for loading and unloading goods from trucks including buffer station 285. Some of the actions to meet current deficits in the infrastructure have been proposed in the draft Master Plan for Galachipa. The next section gives a brief overview of proposal relevant to the CDTA project.

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7.9. Master Planning Process 286. Under the Upazila Towns Infrastructure Development Project (UTIDP), a Master Plan is currently being prepared and a draft copy of the Master Plan has been made available to the Consultant to assist in this project. 287. The Draft Master Plan package consists of three levels and types in a hierarchical order. These are: the Structure Plan (SP) or general development plan; the Urban Area Plan (UAP) and the Ward Action Plan (WAP). Each of these plan types has been formulated to serve particular needs and functions. 288. Most development in Galachipa Pourashava has been unplanned and sporadic. It can be said that the exiting natural drainage structure of the Galachipa Planning area is being interrupted by the developments that have taking place over recent years. 289. The following are the anticipated challenges in preparing the Final Master Plan for Galachipa Pourashava:  identifying the exact locations of khas lands,  integrating the existing alienated agglomerated areas located within the planning area,  determining the study area,  stop the existing trend of encroaching on the fertile agricultural land  Considering climate change,  appropriate institutional framework to take care of the Master Plan, 290. During the preparation of Draft Master Plan of Galachipa, the Master Plan Consultants have reviewed all the relevant policies, Acts and different plans prepared by different development authorities. This exercise has provided a broad guideline the issues and aspects to be included in preparing the master. However, all these issues of preparing master plan well taken care of by Consultants.

7.9.1 Physical Growth Directions 291. As far as the physical growth directions of Galachipa Pourashava are concerned, the Pourashava is expanding along the main road in the east - west direction together with densification of the main urban core area. The major road network links the Pourashava with other areas of Galachipa Upazila. Commercial development is already expanding along with the major roads. Moreover, a major portion of southern and eastern part has remained as agricultural land. The existing growth agglomerations in the core area accommodate mostly the residential, commercial and administrative areas. The present and proposed Road network will be a major determinant for growth of the Pourashava. 292. As reported by the Master Plan Consultant, relevant proposals for future land use in the Master Plan of Galachipa Pourashava are:  Partial Mixed land use will be encouraged  City Centre will be developed  Proportionate land use will promoted as per planning standards  Proper zoning will be developed (Residential, Administrative. Commercial. Industrial,

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and Agricultural)  A Solid Waste Dumping site should be established for the Pourashava.  Green Belt provision should be made on both sides of Khals to stop the encroachment. 293. The data analysis has provided some basis for doing demand assessment for different pertinent sectors and sub-sectors. As a process of preparing Draft Master Plan, the Consultants have made various sectoral and sub-sectoral projections to determine the space requirements for different services and facilities needed both for to-day and for tomorrow. 294. Apart from development proposal in the planning package the Master Plan Consultants made recommendations on plan implementation that included, legal measures, capacity building of executing agencies, financing of development and future approach to urban development.

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8. Pirojpur 295. Pirojpur Pourashava is located in the southernmost region of the country, stands on the Baleshwar and Kocha Rivers and is the headquarters of Pirojpur district. The Pourashava was inaugurated in 1885. In 2011, according to BBS (2011), the population was 60,056 with 13,646 households in Pirojpur Pourashava and average size of households is 4.4. The current Pourashava estimate of population is 64,170. The town is bordered on the west side by the Baleshwar River and to the East and South by the Kocha River. 296. The Pourashava is located between latitude 22°30' and 22°40' north and longitude 89°55' and 90°05' east. This Pourashava is bounded to the north by Nazirpur Upazila, to the east by Jhalokati district, to the south by Bhandaria Upazila and to the west by Bagerhat district. The Pourashava contains 9 Wards, 30 Mahallahs and 23 Mouzas. The Pourashava is about 72 km from the sea. 8.1. Topography 297. A Topographic and Physical Feature Survey of Pirojpur Pourashava was undertaken by Sheltech consultants in 2010 – 11. According to that survey, the lowest spot height is 0.4 m and the highest is 4.00 m with an average ground level of 1.86 m. The physical feature survey showed that there are about 16.3 ha of roads. There are 189 bridges, 181 box culverts and 20 pipe culverts. Approximately 11% of the Pourashava area is ponds, ditches and khals. Figure 8-1 shows the topography of the Pourashava along with the critical infrastructure.

Figure 8-1 Topographic Map for Pirojpur Pourashava showing critical Infrastructure (Source: LEGD, 2011a)

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8.2. Land Use 298. A Land use survey was undertaken by Sheltech Consultants in 2009. The Land use survey results, see Table 8-1, show that there is predominance of agricultural land use (42%) followed by residential land use (30%). The survey clearly shows that the land use pattern reveals significant urbanized land uses. The information on property type in Pirojpur is further shown in Figure 8-2 but it should be noted that the 2011 Census data reports the number of households as 13,646. Table 8-1 Present Land use of Pirojpur Pourashava Category of Land use Area in ha % Residential 1,111 30.4 Commercial 14.2 0.4 Industrial 2.0 0.1 Administrative 8.0 0.2 Educational 7.8 0.2 Places of Worship 7.0 0.2 Health 1.4 0.0 Recreational 4.4 0.1 Agriculture 1,539 42.1 Restricted 4.5 0.1 Transportation 81.6 2.2 Miscellaneous 1.3 0.0 Mixed Use 3.4 0.1 Graveyard 8.9 0.2 Open spaces 468 12.8 Water bodies 390 10.7 Total 3,652 100.0 (Source: Land use Survey, 2011 By Sheltech Constants Pvt. Ltd (SCPL) )

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Figure 8-2 Pirojpur land use map

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(Source: LGED, 2011a)

8.3. Socio-economic Status

8.3.1 Demographics 299. The population distribution in the town and gender ratios is shown in Table 8-2. There are 14 slum areas containing approximately 20% of the population. Table 8-2 Pirojpur census data 2011 Ward Area House Population Sex 2 Density No Km Hold Both Sex Male Female Ratio 1 4.5 1,311 5,707 2,802 2,905 96 1,268 2 2.62 1,369 6,459 3,157 3,302 96 2,465 3 4.7 1,023 4,717 2,358 2,359 100 1,004 4 1.81 2,548 10,421 5,199 5,222 100 5,757 5 2.31 1,687 7,528 3,979 3,549 112 3,259 6 3.6 1330 6,143 3,170 2,973 107 1,706 7 1.01 1,665 7,112 3,376 3,736 90 7,042 8 2.85 1,490 6,474 3,214 3,260 99 2,272 9 6.06 1,223 5,495 2,793 2,702 103 907 Total 29.46 13,646 60,056 30,048 30,008 100 2,039 (Source BBS Census community Report 2011) 300. A projection was made by the project team of ward populations up a design horizon of 2050 as shown in Table 8-3. Table 8-3 Pirojpur population projection to 2050 by Ward Ward Total 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 No (Ha) 1 57 5,707 6,136 6,360 7,056 7,644 2 109 6,459 6,930 7,450 8,800 9,450 3 66 4,717 4,959 5,434 6,334 6,962 4 147 10,421 12,390 15,300 16,575 18,207 5 24 7,528 8,557 9,071 9,125 9,198 6 37 6,143 6,650 7,406 8,120 10,080 7 242 7,112 8,496 10,400 11,160 12,350 8 128 6,474 7,200 7,812 9,504 10,660 9 83 5,495 6,138 6,770 8,120 9,114 Total 893 60,056 67,456 76,003 84,794 93,664 Growth rate 1.30% 1.20% 1.10% 1.00% (Source: CDTA team estimate)

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8.3.2 Household Income 301. Poverty in Pirojpur is indicated by the survey data that shows the average monthly income of 55% of the households is less than Tk. 10,000, that is classified in poor category. Only about 15% of the population is in the rich category with average monthly incomes above 30,000 Tk. The middle-income group with income of Tk. 10,000-to 30,000 per month accounted for 30% of households in Pirojpur. People of this category are dependent on farming in their own land and/or share cropping and earn additional income from small businesses.

8.3.3 Occupation/Literacy rates 302. There is diversity in occupations in Pirojpur Pourashava. The occupation pattern of the population aged 10 years and over shows that service, agriculture and day labour are the predominant occupations. Information collected from the Pourashava shows that over 60% of the population has attended school up to class VI or above. Only about 6% have University degrees. 8.4. Consultations with local residents 303. In Focus Group Discussion (FGD) in May 2012 the group drawn from local stakeholders and residents identified the climatic vulnerabilities and impacts as listed in Table 8-4. Table 8-4 Climate Vulnerability Matrix and Impacts assessed by FGD 1 Prone to Cyclone/ Flood/Tidal wave surges and River Erosion: − The Pourashava is bounded by Baleshwar River in the west and Kocha River in the east. Due to lack of embankment, people are vulnerable to flood during heavy rainfall and frequent tidal surges. − Ward No. 3 and 9 are fully affected by flooding from the Kocha River and Ward 6 is fully affected by Baleshwar River. − 80% of Ward 5 and 30% of Ward 4 is affected by flooding from the Baleshwar River. − 50% of Ward 7 vulnerable to Damodar and Varanikhal, which has silted up. − Due to Cyclone, Flood and Tidal surges and river erosion people have lost agricultural production, homesteads, immovable and movable assets. There is frequent displacement of households, damage to sanitation infrastructure, increase in poverty level, financial crisis and increase in food prices. These impacts lead to forced migration particularly the male earners of households, increased incidence of water borne diseases and fishing community losses of their fishing equipment. 2 Cyclone Shelter − There are 9 cyclone shelters (3 in ward 9; 2 in ward 6; 2 in ward 1, and 2 in ward 3). -Poor design of existing cyclone shelter does not meet the people’s need for water supply, separate arrangement for women, toilet facility etc. 3 Knowledge Management on Disaster Preparedness − Lack of knowledge regarding disaster preparedness particularly among women (councillors) caused extensive and sudden loss of properties and human lives. 4 Poor drainage system − Existing drainage is blocked due to siltation resulting in extensive and frequent flooding

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5 Waste Management − The Pourashava does not have waste dumping ground but 100% households are served by waste management service. 6 Poor Infrastructure − The poor infrastructure of embankments, bridge, culverts and roads causes extensive problems. 7 . Other social problems − Nearly 25% of young adults are associated with drug addiction. − Lack of employment (Source: FGD at Pourashava 21-24 May 2012-CDTA)

8.5. Current Infrastructure and Services

8.5.1 Water Supply 304. Water supply system is based on surface water source from River Baleshwar with one SWTP and 45.8 km length of pipeline. Only about 33% households have piped water supply. Previous studies under the DANIDA project concluded that groundwater is not a reliable source for the municipal supply, as most of the deep groundwater aquifers are saline. In the absence of dependable aquifers, the surface water source on the Baleshwar River was developed in 1983 for safe water supply. 305. Apart from the Pourashava water supply system, there are around 1,995 hand tube wells of which 116 are deep tube well and 1,879 shallow tube wells. These are still being used although to a limited extent and their water quality is not monitored. Recently a small area has been identified with aquifers that can be tapped for Hand Pump deep tube well supplies. Households not served by the supply network depend upon on 116 hand pump deep tube wells. 306. The town water supply system had 2 surface water intake points, one pre-settling tank, one surface water treatment plant of 150 m3/hr and 46 km water distribution pipelines. It was reported that the SWTP runs 20 hours daily to produce 2,000m3 of treated water daily. There is no OHT in the system and water is pumped directly into the distribution network from the treatment plant. 307. Under the on-going development project (STWSSP), a new surface water treatment plant of 300 m3/hr capacity, 22 km water distribution mains and two OHT each of 680m3capacity are under construction. On completion of the new treatment plant, 6,000m3/day of treated water will be added to the system giving a total supply capacity of 8,000 m3/day. 308. The Baleshwar river, the present source of water supply flows along the western side of the Pourashava, while the Kocha river runs in the East. The Kocha river has the same water quality as the Baleshwar but is much bigger and has been considered as an alternative potential source for urban water supply. Water quality of the Baleshwar River, the present source of Town water supply is quite good without salinity as demonstrated by past observations. 309. Apart from the Pourashava water supply system, there are around 1,995 hand tube wells of which 116 are deep tube well and 1,879 shallow tube wells.

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8.5.2 Drainage 310. The Baleshwar River flows along the western side of the Pourashava, while the Kocha River runs in the East and both rivers join as they to the south of the Pourashava. Damodar khal, the major drainage backbone connects the two rivers running almost along the in the centre of the Pourashava. All other drainage network including small and big canals joins the Damudar Khal from both sides of the city. Some of the prominent drainage canals that join the Damudar Khal are Chila Khal, Varani Khal, Shasan Ghat Khal, Madhyama Mashimpur Khal, Dhup Pasha Khal, Ranipur Khal, and others. 311. Almost 90% of these drains are of the Primary category. The Secondary and Tertiary drains are about 4 and 6%, respectively. Major proportion of the drainage system is therefore open and natural. 312. The Pirojpur Pourashava drainage system as set up in the UDM employed in this study is illustrated by the map in Figure 8-3.

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Figure 8-3 Drainage system modeled in the UDM set up for Pirojpur Pourashava (Source: CDTA Team)

8.5.3 Flood Control/Disaster Preparedness 313. Pirojpur Pourashava is protected from river floods by flood control embankment along the rivers following in and around Pirojpur Sadar Upazila. BWDB’s Project Plan on Flood Control and Drainage Development has been prepared by the name-Zianagar-Hularhat Flood Control, Drainage and Irrigation Project in Pirojpur District. Followings are the information of the existing

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F.C. embankment in northern part of Pirojpur District (Feasibility Study Report of BWDB, June, 2004). i. Embankment-cum-Road (External) along Kaliganga river = 13.0 km ii. Embankment (Internal) along Tona khal = 6.0 km iii. Embankment-cum-Road (External) along Baleswar river = 5.0 km iv. Embankment (external) along Kacha & Baleswar river = 32.5 km 314. An important feature is the intention to keep five drainage channels; Tona khal, Damodar khal, Parerhat khal, Setubaria khal and Balipara khal open without any structural interventions. This feature would allow tides to propagate freely along the channels to facilitate desiltation. 315. There are 9 cyclone shelters (3 in ward 9; 2 in ward 6; 2 in ward 1, and 2 in ward 3). There was some lack of clarity owing to the reason that some of these shelters are multi- purpose in nature and also function as schools or colleges in the Pourashavs. The numbers have been cross-checked and re-confirmed from the Pirojpur Pourashava Councilor and Officials who attended the PPTA Inception Workshop held at Dhaka on 11 Feb 2013. 316. Pirojpur is located adjacent to Bay of Bengal and is vulnerable to the flooding from cyclones and their associated storm surges. The vulnerable period is between April-May and October-November when depressions form in the Bay of Bengal. Cyclones have affected the area in 1970, 1974, 1988, 1991, 2007 & 2008. Wards numbers 3 and 9 are the Wards most affected by flooding from high tides. 317. Wards 3 and 9 generally suffer from water logging due to the drainage problem. After heavy rain the depth of water ranges from 0.4 to 0.6m for about 2 to 3 hours.

8.5.4 Sanitation 318. The considerable efforts over the last few years by the Government, the Municipality and NGO’s have proved highly effective, as approximately 90% of households now have adequate sanitation. Most houses in Pirojpur have latrines, predominantly pit latrines. Approximately 22% of households have toilets with septic tank systems. The subsoil is clayey and it has low infiltration capacity. 319. The Pourashava has several public latrines and one community latrine in the twelve wards within its jurisdiction. There are six public latrines, which have been reportedly maintained by the Pourashava and being used free of charge. However, the field assessment revealed that these latrines are in state of disrepair and unsanitary. 320. The Pourashava generates 20 tons of solid waste a day, partly collected in garbage bins and transported at least once a day to nearby ditches and road sides using two trucks of about 4.5 tons capacity. There are 40 garbage collection points in the town. The pourashava does not have any proper landfill site at present.

8.5.5 Public Health 321. Health data for Pirojpur revealed that prevalent diseases are either water borne or water related. The incidence of diarrhea, dysentery and jaundice were high, in the wake of severe cyclonic storms like Sidr and Aila. Other water related diseases included worm infections and skin diseases. This establishes a clear linkage with occurrences of water borne and water related diseases, and poor water and sanitation services and personal hygienic practices in the town.

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322. The District Sadar Hospital is responsible for providing the public health services. There are 14 doctors and 40 nurses/health technicians in the hospital. Management of casualties during Cyclone Sidr was a challenging task to the hospital. The health post faced additional burden of water- sanitation related diseases following the Cyclone especially from cases of diarrhea, respiratory Infections, scabies and jaundice which appeared in high numbers for weeks after the Cyclone. 8.6. Requirements to meet Gaps and Growth

8.6.1 Water Supply 323. The present water supply network serves 3,845 households, only 33% of the households in Pirojpur and supplies an inadequate volume of water. Households not served by the supply network depend upon on 116 hand pump deep tube wells and 1,879 hand pump shallow tube wells. 324. Pirojpur water supply section provides in each supply zone for only a limited number of hours with a consequent high risk of contamination. Water is pumped into the distribution system and distributed to each zone for an average of 2 hours per day. Very low line pressure exists in most of the areas, but the Pourashava has no data on actual supply pressures. The actual quantity of water available to consumers based on the quantity supplied and the population estimate, gives an estimated 40 l/c/d. Of the 3,579 domestic connections, 2,600 are metered, but the Pourashava cannot provide metered consumption figures to enable a more accurate estimate to be made. 325. Of tree three study towns, Pirojpur has the lowest water availability in terms of both duration and quantity. According to JICA survey in April 2012, the supply is available only for 2 hours a day with average 40 l/c/day. The designed water demand under the ongoing Secondary Town Water Supply and Sanitation Project (STWSSP) of DPHE is 100 l/c/day. But International training network (ITN), BUET, Dhaka, Bangladesh (Water and Sanitation by M. Feroze Ahmed and Md. Mozibur Rahman) recommended 120 l/c/day. For district town and under DPHE-DANIDA Water Supply and Sanitation project (WSSP) in coastal belt towns, it was 130 l/c/day was the recommended figure. In this report, the design demand has been considered as 130 l/c/day in summer and 120 l/c/day in winter. 326. The Pourashava needs to provide safe water for drinking and other domestic uses 24 hours delivery services to cover the whole population. There are different socio-economic sections living in the Pourashava and there are fringe areas with scattered households. Water supply is also a revenue earning service for the Pourashava management. Keeping these factors in view different options have been considered in designing the future needs. The socio- economically well to do section of the community will be provided with in house water connection (house connection), the low income community people in the core and semi core area will be covered by shared tap (1 yard tap for 3~4 family) and the people in the fringe area by hand deep tube wells. Public stand post street hydrants have not been considered as the Pourashava considers that they will increase water loss. The projected service coverage between 2012 and 2050 is shown in Table 8-5.

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Table 8-5 Projected Service Coverage in Pirojpur Population Populatio Populatio No. of ST coverage by n n No. of HC Total Populatio (1 for Year House coverage coverage (av. HH connectio n 3~4 Connection by Shared by HTW size 4.5 ) n family) (%) Tap (%) (%) 3,579 + 2012 60,836 26 14 60 0 3,644 65 SH 2020 67,456 40 15 45 5,996 642 6,638 2030 76,003 50 10 40 8,445 482 8,927 2040 84,794 60 10 30 11,306 538 11,844 2050 93,664 70 5 25 14,570 297 14,867 327. This water demand is expected to be met until 2030 by the STWSSP development project under construction, which has a SWTP of 6,000 m3/day capacity. To meet up 2050 water demand, 2 more treatment plant modules @ 3,000 m3/day capacity will be required. 328. There are two issues of concern regarding River Baleshwar as a sustained water supply source in this context – one is its siltation expressed as concern by local stakeholders and the other is salinity intrusion. It should be noted that the local population stated that the Baleshwar River is silting up and the flow is decreasing particularly in the dry season. However due to the substantial flow in the river and the relatively small abstraction this should not be a problem for many years. On salinity analysis of past data (salinity measurements from BWDB station from Baleshwar, Pirojpur for the period 2000-2008) as well as hydrodynamic model simulations of salinity taking into account sea-level rise due to future climate change do not indicate values beyond Bangladesh drinking water standards. However, as a precautionary strategy for future, it may be necessary to investigate an alternative source for long-term sustainability. The Kocha River flowing along the Eastern side of the Pourashava is much bigger than the Baleshwar River with similar water quality and could be developed as a alternate source. However, a new surface water treatment plant would be needed and in-take pipeline to the existing water works compound would be required. 329. Another 5 OHT will be needed to meet 2050 storage demands, distribution pipeline, additional tube wells to supply outer areas will be required. Additional measures like reservoirs to preserve rainwater, investigation for potential deep groundwater aquifers through test drilling as alternative source for public water supply (possible areas are Tala and Satkhira Union), increasing flows in Baleshwar by necessary dredging are considered. Annex VI on Water Supply provides more details. 330. Programme to sensitise the community regarding safe water use and hygiene practices. 331. Financial management needs improvement starting with taking steps to collect arrears and having customers pay on time. Non-revenue water losses have to be reduced.

8.6.2 Drainage 332. The drainage system is not in good condition due to garbage dumping, encroachment and inadequate maintenance resulting in siltation of the natural Khals. All this results in major overflows and flooding even under normal rainfall conditions.

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333. The ground elevation in Pirojpur Pourashava varies from 0.4 to 4.4 m above mean sea level. The worst water logged areas are Machimpur, Diabetic centre, Aftabuddin College, Shaikh Para, CI Para and Shikhya Office Road area. Most of the existing secondary and tertiary drains are lined. However, these do not seem to be well planned and are not performing well. The stagnant wastewater in the drains and ditches provides an ideal habitat for mosquitoes and create unhygienic conditions due to stagnation. The primary canals, the Damodar and Bharani Khals, forming the major part of drainage system are unlined, silted up and encroached and have lost their original capacities. 334. Wards 3 and 9 generally suffer from water logging due to the drainage problem. After heavy rain the depth of water ranges from 0.4 to 0.6m for about 2 to 3 hours. 335. UDM modeling study (Annex IV) shows that for the design storm conditions (10-year 2- hour design storm hyetograph) about one-third of the main Damudar Khal was overtopped by 0.1 to 0.5 m in various sections of the Khal. In case of Parerhat Khal water overflows almost the entire reach of the canal by a range between 0.25m and 1.25 m. Such results show the gross insufficiency of the current drainage system to drain rainwater from the Pourashava. 336. During the flood of 1998, Pirojpur was inundated by 1–1.5 m depth of floodwater. However, according to the socio-economic survey in 2011 most of the households (76%) reported that the flood level was below the property plinth level. 337. Most of the drainage system needs to be revamped to meet the current needs of adequate reduction of flooding and inundation due to rainstorms. Master plan for drainage needs to be prepared and implemented, remove encroachment, rehabilitate and replace sluice gates and improve outfalls; existing Khals need to be re-excavated to improve flows.

8.6.3 Flood control/Disaster Preparedness 338. There was either a low or no embankment along Baleshwar River. During Cyclones Sidr and Aila over-bank spilling took place resulting in inundation of the Pourashava and town area. Pourashava was completely under water for 3 days. Some parts of the embankment were damaged and washed away some parts were breached and some reaches of embankment were eroded to deform the sections. Due to wave action on the Kacha River 11 km of the embankment toe was severely eroded. Slope protection of some reaches has been recommended by the local BWDB office. 339. Pirojpur Pourashava is frequently affected by river flooding mainly due to the overflow of Kacha River in the monsoon season. 340. The following requirements are for consideration -  Construction of new embankments (approximately 4 km from Nimar Canal to Mot Khola/Canal).  The embankments have to be also protected from erosion. Green belt / afforestation needed on the embankments especially on river side. Necessary arrangements are needed to protect existing embankment from of scour/erosion during natural disasters like Aila or Sidr  Additional Sluice gate required to drain the tidal surge  Construct additional 4 multi-purpose cyclone shelters in ward no. 1, 3, 6 & 9 with sufficient accommodation (special environment and facilities are needed for women,

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disable and infant) and multi-disciplinary use (like primary school, community clinic, health care, separate areas for livestock, etc.)  Enhance necessary facilities in the Cyclone shelters for women and men during flood time (with adequate safe water supply and hygienic sanitation) and separate areas for livestock.  Intensive early warning (local language) to mass community before cyclone and other well managed and integrated preparation are needed – pre, post and during the disasters.

8.6.4 Sanitation and Public Health 341. De-sludging of septic tanks and pits is done manually and disposed of in nearby ditches or roadside, creating health hazards. The problem currently faced by the Pourashava is the lack of equipment for de-sludging of septic tanks and pits. 342. Most of the public toilets are in a dismal state, have virtually no maintenance and cleaning operations. This is partly due to the free use of public toilets such that there are no funds allocated for their upkeep. The Pourashava does not have community latrines in poor slum areas, except for one extremely unsanitary latrine with doors ripped off and no water point. 343. Adequate technical and financial support is needed to facilitate the installation of household, community, public and school latrines. 344. Solid waste is collected by the Pourashava from waste bins located in some places in the town using two trucks of capacity 1.5 tonnes. However, as there is no managed landfill, the waste is disposed in a random manner in local ditches, water bodies, etc 345. Remedial measures for meeting these current deficits are proposed as  Construction of adequate public toilet (100 nos.) & community latrine (200 nos.) for low income group of the city ;  Efficient sludge management system needed to introduced  Mass awareness campaign on hygienic practices  Identify suitable area for dumping site and solid waste management system 346. Health care staff and professionals at health center are inadequate to cater to the needs of the Pourashava, particularly during exposure to severe cyclones and other such adverse conditions when there disease incidence reach epidemic scales. Also, there is need to maintain systematic records to enable future assessments, trends in diseases prevalence, and quantification of needs thorough more rigorous analysis.

8.6.5 Other Infrastructure 347. There were expressed requirements for wider roads to link with the main road, foot path, with adequate number of culverts and bridges at required points in the town. There is also a need for improving ferry terminals and need for a Bus terminal. Approach road from Kocha River to main town also required to be widened as recommended during the focused group discussions. RCC roads were suggested as they were more durable in frequent flooding.

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348. Cargo, Trawler and Kheya ghats were expressed to be necessary for smooth movement of passengers and goods. Construction of new kitchen market and alternate kacha bazaar were also needed. 8.7. Impacts of climate change 349. Impacts of climate change get modulated according to the specific locations and the unique application context of the Pourashava. This section presents specific analysis with regards to water supply, drainage, and Flood control & disaster preparedness. Sanitation and Public health impacts have not been dealt separately under each Pourashava as the level of information in these sub-sectors are quite generic for which the impacts of climate change remain very similar across the three town considered.

8.7.1 Water Supply 350. Four broad components of the water supply sector are used to assess the climate change impact in the specific case of the Pirojpur Pourashava. 351. One impact of Climate Change will be to increase the demand for water. In the present study demand calculation has assumed that peak summer demand is 10% greater than average demand but there are no estimates of what the increase in demand should be to allow for Climate Change adaption. It was therefore thought prudent to assume that demand will increase by a further 10%. The resulting net per capita demand increases to 144 l/day which can be compared to the value of 152 l/day adopted in the Khulna study for 2050.The overall effect of this on the 2050 water supply infrastructure is to bring forward investment in surface water treatment plant and one additional OHT. 352. Table 8-6 presents a matrix of climate change impacts on various components of the water supply infrastructure. Table 8-6 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Pirojpur Pourashava water supply Components Sea-level rise Rainfall Cyclonic Temp. Other remarks Increase Storms increase Source Surface water Possible Frequent storm Not expected The existing Resources, Low risk, as opportunities surge linked water treatment Salinity and salinity is well for enhanced inundation with facility will cater contamination within drinking rainwater saline water to demands till water harvesting; poses a 2030s. To cover standards; this although enhanced risk of for the potential is because increases in surface water risk of rivers are rainfall salinity Baleshwar River freshened by intensities may becoming silted the present some or/and saline; Brahmaputra problems. developing the (Padma) future SWTP at alternate source at Kocha River is recommended. Distribution Not expected Not expected Damage and Enhanced None Network disruption of coverage coverage supply networks required, as people living

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in outer areas demand for piped water supply due to increasing temperatures Infrastructure Not expected From Possible risk Not Possible risk To be secured Increased from severe significant from severe incidences of cyclonic cyclonic storms local flooding – storms/storm and hand tube surge, SWTP wells facility and hand tube wells to be secured from storm surge inundations risks Consumption Not expected Not expected Not expected Higher This is also Demand side ambient dependent on issues temperatures future will increase population water growth demand – projection. just as the demand for water increases in summary days Based on present day summer consumption peak, a 10% increase has been assumed. This results net per capita demand increases to 144 l/day which can be compared to the value of 152 l/day adopted in the Khulna study for 2050. 353. Baleshwar River running the risk of saline intrusion has been considered in detail. During field visit in May 2012, the consultant team collected water samples from the Baleshwar and Kocha Rivers that were analyzed in DPHE Central Laboratory in Dhaka. All the tested parameters were also found to be well below the Bangladesh Standard. Salinity in Baleshwar River was 60 mg/L and Kocha River was 16 mg/L which are well below the 150-600 mg/L (1000 mg/L for coastal zone) national standard. 354. Earlier laboratory test reports of DPHE also show that there is no increase in river water salinity during last 6 years. Baleshwar River’s salinity data recorded at Pirojpur (SW107 monitoring station) by BWDB for a period from 2000 to 2008 were also collected and analyzed (Figure 8-4). The results show that the salinity values are below 200 ppm or mg/L which is well below the prescribed standards for potable water in the coastal areas. Beyond 2006 there is a scatter in the data which cannot be easily explained as it does not follow the regular annual cycle of salinity. It could even be a sign of increasing trend that may need more careful examination and correlation with changes in other monitoring stations nearby.

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600

500 ChloridePPM_HighTide ChloridePPM_LowTide

400

300

200 Salinity Salinity (ppm) 100

0 12/6/1999 4/19/2001 9/1/2002 1/14/2004 5/28/2005 10/10/2006 2/22/2008 7/6/2009

Date

Figure 8-4 Time-series of salinity of water sampled at Baleshwar River, Pirojpur (Source: BWDB) 355. For the Ganges Barrage salinity intrusion project IWM has reported that salinity level has been measured at 20 locations for the dry season of 2010 and 2011 from January to May. The location of the measurement point has been selected covering the whole southwest region to assess the propagation of surface water salinity from the coast of the Bay to upstream. 356. Table 8-7 below provides the typical variation of measured salinity level in ppt following the river system of Gorai-Madhumati-Baleswar. In this system, salinity level along the Madhumati depends on the saline magnitude at Bardia, which is gradually reduced by mixing the freshwater through MBR. The propagation of salinity level through the Baleswar estuary does not reach significantly upstream due to huge freshwater inflow through Sawrupkati, Kaliganga and Kocha Rivers. Table 8-7 Typical variation of salinity in Gorai-Madhumati-Baleswar River System Location River name Typical variation of measured salinity level in ppt Name April May Bardia Nabaganga 2.86 – 5.79 3.16 – 9.19 Gopalg Madhumati 0.30 – 2.00 0.10 – 2.15 ang Pirozpur Baleswar 0.24 – 0.38 0.34 – 0.70 Chardoani Baleswar 3.14 – 6.69 1.48 – 6.90 (Source: Ganga Barrage Salinity Intrusion study, 2012) 357. Further simulations of salinity intrusion incorporating sea-level rise due to climate change also shows that Pirojpur remains outside the saline intrusion envelop (Figure 8-5). This is due the freshening of the Rivers waters in tributaries fed by the Padma river system lying in the central coastal zone.

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Figure 8-5 Salinity Intrusion Map for the western coastal zone considering seas-level rise (Source: CDTA Team) 358. Unfortunately the SWTP does not maintain any long term record of the salinity levels all year round. This regular monitoring should be initiated and reviewed periodically to assessed and remedial actions like impounding reservoir or shifting the intake point can be considered.

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8.7.2 Drainage 359. From the baseline assessment it is clear that existing drainage system at Pirojpur is inadequate. As a consequence, changes in climatic conditions, such as increasing rain intensities and more extreme weather events, such as thunderstorms, will most likely aggravate these problems. UDM study (Annex IV) has shown that even for the present day design storm conditions, about 90% of the urban area gets flooded with 77% inundated by 91 - 300 cm flood depths. With increasing rainfall and rising tidal flows induced by sea-level rise the situations of drainage congestion will worsen. Table 8-8 presents a matrix of climate change impacts on various components of the urban drainage infrastructure. Table 8-8 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Urban Drainage in Pirojpur Pourashava Components Sea-level Rainfall Cyclonic Temp. Other remarks rise/tidal Increase Storms increase condition Flow within Backwater Increasing Surge Not UDM study the effect will rainfall inundation by expected shows: Pourashava reduce drainage amounts and cyclonic storms Damudor Khal area capacity intensity during may be Parerhat Khal Primary Urban causing monsoon aggravated Chanmari Khal drains increasing season will Palpara Khal (pucca), severity of enhance the Shashanghat secondary drainage volume of the Khal drains, tertiary congestion water to be Dhuppasha Khals carried Khal Kumarkhali Khal Sikarpur Khal show increase in overflows with climate change. Outflows to Will impact Not expected Cyclone induced Only Blocked culverts rivers and sea negatively surge conditions indirectly and sluice gates Sluice gates contributing to this will severely will worsen (Regulators) drainage impact drainage. climate change congestion impacts further. Urban Not expected Land-use Not expected Not Catchments changes will expected Land-use, run- modify, many off cases increase None characteristics run-off during intense rainfall events 360. Figure 8-6 shows flood inundation simulated by the UDM model for Baseline and future climate change conditions. The inundated area under the highest flood category (181 – 300 cm) increases from about 18% to 43%. Enhancing the design cross-sections of the canals reduced the in water overtopped canal sections to the design storm conditions. Due to increase in rainfall, with climate change as per projections in the regional climate change scenarios (for 2050s A2 high emission scenarios), the canal sections get overtopped again and need additional cross-sectional enhancement to reduce overtopping. In effect this may practically be interpretable as enhancing design criteria for drainage system from that of a 1-in-10 year rainstorm to 1-in-20 years design using historical rainfall data. If climate models become less

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Figure 8-6 Flood inundated area in Pirojpur Pourashava: Base-line (top) climate change (2050) (bottom) (Source: CDTA Team, Annex IV)

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(%)

F0:10-30 cm, F1:31-90 cm, F2: 91-180 cm and F3: 181-300 cm

Figure 8-7 Percentage of flood affected areas under different categories in Pirojpur urban area for baseline and climate change conditions in 2050s. (Source: CDTA Team, Annex IV)

8.7.3 Flood Control/Disaster Preparedness 361. There is as yet no clear indication about the future frequencies of intense cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal area (IPCC, 2012). This report also states “increase in mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed is likely, although increases may not occur in all tropical regions”. However as even the current threats from severe cyclonic storms are immense it is prudent to build resilience (World Bank, 2010). 362. About 37.5 km of the Pirojpur Pourashava embankment under construction along the right bank of the Kacha and Baleshwar rivers was damaged in different ways during the storm surges during cyclones Sidr and Aila. Embankments have provided protection to the polders against monsoon tides and storm surge they have been often breached particularly when struck by very severe cyclones. Regular tidal action and heavy rainfall can also cause slow damage. Toe and slope erosion can be enhanced by heightened tidal action by vigorous monsoon conditions and heavy rainfall respectively. 363. Heavy rainfall and tidal flows can cause siltation to cover the regulators, water control structures and their gates making them inoperative. 8.8. Climate Resilient Options 364. A wide range of adaption options were considered (ref. Table 6-8) to before identifying specific options for each township.

8.8.1 Water Supply 365. The present source of urban water supply is surface water from River Baleshwar, in which to date has provided a reliable source for the municipal water supply. The groundwater in and

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8.8.2 Options for water supply infrastructure To meet current Infrastructural To Adapt to climate Present situation Deficits change Water Supply System

Surface water intakes from Ensure safe water for drinking and other Increase in water demand Baleshwar River . domestic use throughout the year. due to increased Kacha river may be considered as temperatures Public health, second surface water source for public Local population to be During disaster/tidal water supply through SWTP. encouraged adopt surge/flash flood, drinking Rain water may be preserved by rainwater harvesting water sources are affected and constructing adequate reservoir Measures needed to contaminated as the piped Investigate potential groundwater increase resilience of water network and hand pump tube aquifer through test drilling as alternative supply system needed. wells become submerged. source for public water supply (possible (Protection of pumping Consequently, the areas are Tala and Satkhira union) station and electricity communities suffer from water- More hand pump tube wells in feasible supply) sanitation related diseases. area particularly for the city dwellers In flood prone areas hand Recently, Cyclones Sidr and living outside the piped water supply tube wells to be installed Aila had a severe impact on area need to be installed. above flood level. public health and the incidence Increase flows in Baleshwar River by High level tube wells of disease during these necessary dredging. needed in cyclone shelters cyclones. Regular water quality monitoring Consider provision of more Baleshwar River is suffering Programme to sensitise the community OHT to supply water in from siltation on safe water use and hygiene emergencies practices.

8.8.3 Options for Sanitation

To meet current Infrastructural Present situation To Adapt to climate change Deficits Sanitation:

Public and community latrines Construction of adequate public toilet New Public and community inadequate (100 nos.) & community latrine (200 toilets need to be installed Desludging of pit latrines nos.) for low income group of the city ; above flood level inadequate Efficient sludge management system High level toilets needed in needed to introduced Cyclone shelters. Mass awareness campaign on the Sludge treatment facilities issue need installing above flood level Population need help in constructing high level latrines Solid waste management:

No dumping ground Adequate dumping ground is required Dumping ground needs Inadequate collection system for dumping of solid waste installing above flood level

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To meet current Infrastructural Present situation To Adapt to climate change Deficits Adequate dumping vehicle required Slaughter housed needed to established

8.8.4 Options for Drainage and Flood Control/Disaster Preparedness To meet current Infrastructural To Adapt to climate Present situation Deficits change Flood control & River Erosion:

Due to lack of embankment, people are vulnerable to flooding Excavation and re-excavation of Higher level embankments during heavy rainfall and frequent Canals, rivers and ponds is required to provide tidal surges. required for easy drainage and emergency refuges Wards 3 and 9 are affected by conservation of floods. Additional bank protection flooding from the Kocha River and Construction of new embankments required. Ward 6 is fully affected by (approximately 4 km from Nimar Additional Green belt / Baleshwar River. Canal to Mot Khola/Canal). afforestation needed Due to Cyclone, Flood and Tidal Additional Sluice gate required to surges and river erosion people drain the tidal surge from the city. have lost agricultural production, Green belt / afforestation are homesteads, and other assets. needed on the embankments There increase in poverty level, specially at river side. financial crisis and increase in Necessary arrangements are food prices. needed to protect existing embankment from of scour/erosion during natural disasters like Aila or Sidr. Disaster Management and Cyclone Shelter:

There are 9 cyclone shelters (3 in Construct additional 4 multi- Construct additional cyclone ward 9; 2 in ward 6; 2 in ward 1, purpose cyclone shelters in ward shelters and 2 in ward 3). -The existing no. 1, 3, 6 & 9 with sufficient Construct additional flood cyclone shelter has inadequate accommodation (special refuges water supply, and toilet facility etc. environment and facilities are Raise existing road Lack of knowledge regarding needed for women, disable and embankments to provide disaster preparedness particularly infant) and multi-disciplinary use flood refuges for fishermen, women, old and (like primary school, community Provide water supply at first disable persons clinic, health care, separate areas floor level to Cyclone for livestock, etc.) shelters Enhance necessary facilities in the Provide sanitation at first Cyclone shelters for women and floor level to Cyclone men during flood time (with shelters adequate safe water supply and Encourage people in low- hygiene sanitation) lying areas to raise their Intensive early warning (local house plinth level above language) to mobilise community flood level before cyclone and integrated preparation are needed /adopted

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To meet current Infrastructural To Adapt to climate Present situation Deficits change during pre, post and disaster period. Drainage System

The drainage system of the Existing khals need desilting, make Additional drainage as pourashava is not well managed free from illegal encroachment and identified by modelling to be and well planned re-excavation (specifically constructed to overcome Damudar, Chanmari, Khumuria) . additional flooding from Lack of drainage causes climate change prolonged water logging during People should be well trained to The following Khals that normal rainfall and flood time make proper drainage and needed re-excavation to which causes problems for sewerage system during carry design storm show ’mobility and a bad smell from construction of their new building enhanced/additional waterlogged areas that adversely and houses in city area. overflows with climate affects public health. Construct/improve outfalls to change The major Khals of the city are activate blocked sluice gates – so Damudor Khal encroached and blocked by soil that the tidal surge and floods can Parerhat Khal that hampers the proper drainage easily be removed and drained Chanmari Khal system. from the city. Palpara Khal Shashanghat Khal Dhuppasha Khal Kumarkhali Khal Sikarpur Khal 8.8.5 Options for other Infrastructure To meet current Infrastructural Present situation To Adapt to climate change Deficits Road:

Communication along with link Wider Road construction along with Some road embankments to road, footpath, proper drainage link road, foot path, proper drainage be raised to provide flood system and required numbers of system and required numbers of refuges culverts are not adequate and up culverts and bridges all over the to the mark. town. Approach road from Kaccha river to main town needs to widen as much as possible In adequate other infrastructure Construction of required number of facilities Cargo ghat (1no) Trawler ghat (1no)& Kheyaghat (1no) for smooth movement of passengers and goods *Construction of new Bus stand/Track Terminal with adequate Passengers Shade (separate arrangement for women) Construction of new kitchen market, alternate kacha bazar

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Construction of Rickshaw stand 366. Some of the actions to meet current deficits in the infrastructure have been proposed in the draft Master Plan for Pirojpur. The next section gives a brief overview of proposal relevant to the CDTA project. 8.9. Master Planning Process 367. The UTIDP project being implemented by LGED provided a draft copy of the Master Plan to assist in this project. These Master Plans are not finalized yet. 368. The District Towns Infrastructure Development Project (DTIDP) of LGED has commissioned a comprehensive set of plans for Pirojpur Pourashava. The proposed set of plans consists of Structure Plan, Urban Area Plan and Ward Action Plan. 369. The Structure Plan sets out a long-term strategy – covering the twenty years from 2011 to 2031 for urban development and the use of land in the Pourashava Town as a whole. It extends to the entire area demarcated by the Consultant. The document sets out a series of policies to be pursued, if the broad objectives set for development of the Pourashava to be achieved. 370. The Urban Area Plan elaborates policies of the Structure Plan as far as they affect the area where urban development activity will be concentrated. The plan, therefore, is limited to the existing urban area and its immediate surroundings. It is for a period of ten years, covering the period from 2011 to 2021. In providing a more detailed guidance available in the Structure Plan, it gives greater precision to the spatial dimension of the structure Plan policies. The Urban Area Plan includes landuse Plan, Traffic and Transportation Plan, Drainage and Environmental Management Plan and Plan for Community Services. 371. The Ward Action Plan provides guidance for areas where major change or action is expected in the short-term (5 years). According to the individual Ward of the Pourashava, this plan provide further the policies and proposals of both the Structure Plan and Urban Area Plan in more detailed and guidance for the control, promotion and coordination of development. 372. During the preparation of Draft Master Plan of Pirojpur, the Master Plan Consultants have reviewed all the relevant policies, Acts and different plans prepared by different development authorities. This exercise provided a broad base guideline of the issues and aspects to be included in preparing the Master Plan. 373. To understand the physical growth direction visually, a comparison of 20 years previous land use and existing land use has been undertaken. It was observed that Pourashava area is mainly developed in the central part along the Hularhat-Khulna Road and Damodor Khal.This is because this part is higher than the other parts of the Pourashava. The Pourashava is extending towards east and south direction. 374. The following are the anticipated challenges envisaged in preparing the master plan for Pirojpur Pourashava:  identifying the exact locations of khas lands:  integrating the existing alienated agglomerated areas located within the planning area:  stop the existing trend of encroaching the fertile agricultural land:  upcoming climate change  appropriate institutional framework to take care the plan: etc.

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8.9.1 Physical Growth 375. Relevant proposals by the Master Plan Consultant for future land use in Pirojpur Pourashava are :  Partial Mixed land use will be encouraged  Town Centre will be developed  Proportionate land use will promoted as per planning standards  Proper zoning will be developed (Residential, Administrative, Commercial, Industrial, Agricultural etc)  Road network will be developed in planned way considering the Road network Hierarchy and widened as per planning standards.  A by-pass Road from Pirojpur-Bekutia Ferry Ghat Intersection to Bus Terminal of Pourashava is proposed.  All disconnected khals in the Pourashava should be re-excavated to ensure the natural drainage of the Pourashava is restored. This will reduce some of the drainage problem of the area.  Green Belt provision should be made on both sides of Khals to stop the encroachment.  A Solid Waste Dumping site should be established for the Pourashava.  A fish processing and export zone is proposed in the Master Plan. 376. The data analysis has provided some basis for undertaking demand assessment for different pertinent sectors and sub-sectors. In the process of preparing the Master Plan, the Consultants has made various sectoral and sub-sectoral projections so as to determine the space requirements for different services and facilities needed for the people of to-day and of tomorrow. Apart from development proposals in the planning package there are recommendations on plan implementation that include, legal measures, capacity building of executing agencies, financing of development and future approach to urban development.

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9. Options for Climate Resilience and their Financial Implications

9.1. Introduction 377. The adaptation options have been identified and selected on the basis of detailed assessment of present conditions at each Pourashava, their future growth and development until year 2050, and the possible impacts of future projected climate change. These options were articulated into specific interventions through consultation with the stakeholders in workshops and focus group discussions. In order to identify the most appropriate mitigation measures, sector specific documents and literature on climate change and related adaptation options in the fields of: water, sanitation, drainage, and health have been reviewed and analyzed. There is an enhanced concern about the risks of climate change in Bangladesh, as it is already predisposed to climate linked hazards. This concern has led to several initiatives by the Government of Bangladesh and its development partners to undertake adaptation projects. Approaches undertaken by these projects have also been used to guide the identification of adaptation options. 378. The information gathered was verified and augmented with expert knowledge from various disciplines, through individual consultations with experts, both within and outside the CDTA Study Team as well as workshops where sectoral options were discussed in detail with stakeholders. The team has summarized the identified adaptation options considering associated effects and made an inventory of the institutional aspects related to their implementation. 379. The structure of this Chapter is as follows: − Section 9.2 summarizes the proposed options for building climate resilient infrastructure in each town considering water supply, sanitation and flooding and drainage as separate components. The section also identifies and discusses the damage costs under current climate variability and future climate changes. − Section 9.3 discusses all readily identified current climate related damage costs ranging from health and water supply to agriculture and fisheries. − Section 9.4 estimates the additional climate related costs that will result from the expected impacts of climate change − Section 9.5 details the cost analysis undertaken in the project towns − Economic and financial analysis is summarized in Section 9.6 including Cost-Benefit Analysis(CBA) that showing returns of investment of climate resilient infrastructure 9.2. Recommendations for Adaptations to provide Climate Resilience Measures 380. A schedule of the options identified to build resilience to the impacts of Climate Change on the study Pourashavas are shown in Table xxx of Annex IX, which also assesses the proposed interventions in terms of their Effectiveness, Urgency, Associated costs and benefits and Social acceptability. Each of these criteria are evaluated by assigning three point grades – high, medium and low, with the top grade being interchangeably used as the adjective describing the criteria itself. The assignment of grades, although subjective, is largely based on FGDs and Working Group discussion at the Workshops held in Dhaka and the Pourashavas and review of relevant literatures and study reports.. It must be noted that this is a pre-feasibility

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report level subjective assessment proposed with the intent of evolving a methodological approach for prioritization of climate resilient options. It is hoped that such a procedure could be further refined and adopted in implementation of this project and in agencies with such responsibilities. The recommended list includes both structural and non-structural soft options. The major interventions are then discussed by sector in the following section and in detail for each town. 381. Prioritization of the proposed interventions listed in Table 9-1 was discussed with the Municipal Authorities and with the local Community in the Focus Group Discussions detailed in Annex - X. Due to the significant current infrastructure deficit as detailed in Section E of Annex IX, prioritization is a very sensitive issue with the local community. A further factor complicating the prioritization is that there are a number implementing authorities as detailed in Section B in Annex- IX, each with their own budgets and priority criteria. The prioritization of these interventions will be an outcome of discussions between the Pourashava and the relevant authority and a key task of the PPTA team. For the local community all of the interventions classified as urgent in Section B of Annex IX have a high priority. 382. The majority of the investment required is to remove the current infrastructure deficit. The existing water supply networks only supply a small proportion of the population, flooding is frequent and drainage in all of the Pourashavas is inadequate as discussed in Chapter 5, 6 and 7 of this report. The investment required to build climate resilience in this infrastructure is only a relatively small part of the total infrastructure investment. This is further discussed in the following sections.

9.2.1 Flooding and Drainage Climate Change Adaptations 383. The climate change adaptation options for flooding and drainage are listed below. − Raise existing flood embankments to meet increased flood levels resulting from larger monsoon floods and higher tidal levels − Construct high level areas of land above flood level and storm surge levels – so that during emergency this place can be used to protect livestock and other tangible assets. − Re-excavate blocked and narrow sections of the khals to restore them to a fully functioning state and improve the urban drainage system through design improvements to enhance carrying capacity to cater for heavier and more intense rainfall. − Institute solid waste management programme to ensure solid waste is not disposed of into Khals and drains. − Implement recording of flooded areas and depths following significant floods. − Implement programme to upgrade existing culverts as necessary to facilitate drainage of low-lying areas. − Construct more multi-purpose cyclone shelters with separate toilet for women and facilities for the disabled and infants. Water supply and sanitation must be available at a raised level (high level) during floods. The shelters should have multi- disciplinary use (e.g. primary school, community clinic etc., health care) 384. Specific flooding and drainage measures for each Pourashava are summarised below with a breakdown of costs and quantities given in Section E of Annex IX.

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Table 9-1 Climate Resilient Options for Flooding and Drainage Investment needed to meet: Climate Infrastructural Pourashava Infrastructure Change Deficit up to 2050 Adaption cost Excavation and re-excavation of Tk. 7,197 Lac Tk. 1,063 Lac Khals, beels, rivers and ponds ( Amtali Higher level embankments US$ 1,363,404 required to provide emergency US$ 9,227,372 refuges ( Tk. 729 Lac Tk. 4,353 lac Additional bank protection Galachipa required. US$ 934,615 US$ 5,581,321 Additional Green belt / afforestation needed Construction of embankments to protect essential infrastructure Tk. 10,964 Lac Tk. 1,336 Lac Improve drainage in urban area Pirojpur Provide additional drainage US$ 14,056,154 US$ 1,712,897 sluices

9.2.2 Water Supply Climate Change Adaptations: 385. The climate change adaptation options for water supply are listed below. − Provide additional water to meet the population needs during predicted periods of higher temperature. − Extend service area so that the supply area of the water supply network covers the urban area as shallow wells expected to have increasing problems with salinity. − Protect essential infrastructure such as tube wells pumping stations and electricity supplies so that water supply can be maintained during floods and rapidly restored after storm surge. 386. Specific water supply measures for each Pourashava are summarised below with a breakdown of costs and quantities given in Section E of Annex IX. Table 9-2 Climate Resilient Options Water Supply Investment needed to meet: Climate Infrastructural Pourashava Infrastructure Change Deficit up to 2050 Adaption cost Production Well with pumps and pump house. Overhead reservoir Tk. 2,982 Lac Tk. 358 Lac Extend distribution pipe lines Amtali (Replacement of under size US$ 3,822,821 US$ 458,974 pipelines

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Investment needed to meet: Climate Infrastructural Pourashava Infrastructure Change Deficit up to 2050 Adaption cost Additional house and yard connections Additional Hand tube-well (Deep) Tk. 2,909 lac Tk. 358 Lac High level tube wells with pumps Galachipa Provide flood protection to PTW US$ 3,729,103 US$ 458,974 Rain Water Harvesting- community & individual level Distribution pipeline Development of additional water treatment works Additional Overhead Tanks Extend water Transmission pipeline Additional house and yard Tk. 10,479 lac Tk. 507 lac connections Pirojpur Install hand tube-well (Deep) US$ 13,435,128 US$ 650,000 Provide flood protection to critical infrastructure River dredging – Baleshwar river High level tube wells with pumps Rain Water Harvesting- community & individual level

9.2.3 Sanitation and Solid Waste Management Climate Change Adaptation Measures: 387. The climate change adaptation options for sanitation and solid waste management are listed below. − Promote construction of raised latrines above flood level for private households and where private latrines are not feasible. − Provide community latrines. − Provide adequate public latrines, and latrines in all schools. − Provide equipment for proper de-sludging and sludge management including vacuum pumping. − Institute solid waste management programme to ensure solid waste is not disposed of into Khals and drains. − Construct sanitary landfill or dumping ground at a location as identified in the new Urban Master Plans. − Encourage proper collection and disposal system (including segregation) by the private sector. 388. Specific sanitation and solid waste management measures for each Pourashava are summarised below with a breakdown of costs and quantities given in Section E of Annex IX

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389. Direct public health measures would include measures to enhance awareness and management of crises. Improve of health complexes and health education. Institute surveillance measures for climate sensitive diseases separately or incorporate it in the existing national disease surveillance programme. Undertake capacity building /training of health professionals on climate change and its health impacts to deal with future adversity. Table 9-3 Climate Resilient Options for Sanitation & Solid Waste Investment needed to meet: Climate Infrastructural Pourashava Infrastructure Change Deficit up to 2050 Adaption cost Pit latrine replacement / Tk. 420 Lac Tk. 153 Lac Improvement Amtali Additional Public Latrine US$ 538,462 US$ 196,154 Additional School latrine Additional Community latrine Tk. 960 lac Tk. 350 Lac Truck mounted vacuum pump Galachipa Dumping Zone US$ 1,230,769 US$ 448,718 Awareness campaign, capacity building, Tk. 1,530 lac Tk. 570 Lac Pirojpur US$ 1,961,538 US$ 730.769

9.2.4 Other Infrastructure (Roads, Bridges, Culverts, Ghats etc) 390. The other climate change adaptation options for other infrastructures include the following: − Widen roads along main routes with footpaths and proper drainage system. − Construct culverts and bridges to improve drainage. − Provide Ghats for smooth transportation of passengers and goods; ramp for goods loading and unloading, Truck stand and Bus Terminal / stand including sheds. 391. These interventions were not addressed as part of this study.

9.2.5 Non-structural measures 392. The non-structural adaptation measures are listed below: − Enhance awareness about early warning information available and ensure its communication to different wards of the Pourashava through existing mechanisms like the Disaster Management Committees. − Implement strict adherence to the land-use as per urban master plans prepared for the Pourashava to prevent encroachment of Khals and drains and building in low lying areas. − Implement building codes that prescribe raising the building plinth levels (under consideration of implementation in the pourashava level) to above the flood inundation levels for the area. − Monitor flood inundation patterns during extreme rainfall events to make more

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reliable estimates of flood prone areas. − Efficient and sustainable water supply infrastructure to be brought about with robust financial management and monitoring of water supply, a present weakness in the pilot Pourashavas. − Promote Community involvement in protection of natural water bodies and the planting of green belts. 9.3. Costs of Current Shortfall 393. To undertake the cost and benefit analysis, it is necessary to establish the climate related damage costs both at the present time and in 2050. Amelioration of these damages by the proposed interventions provides the benefits of implementing the project. 394. Three different situations have been considered for the purpose of incremental cost as well as economic and financial analysis of the study towns, these are: i. Present Scenario with current infrastructure deficit. ii. Future situation up to 2050 with climate change impact but without the provision of climate-resilient infrastructure; and iii. Future situation up to 2050 with climate change impact with climate-resilient infrastructure. 395. The procedures to evaluate the climate change related costs and adaptation benefits are given in Annex IX. The potential benefits derived from costs of current infrastructure deficit and climate change related damages under each component, such as housing, education, health etc are given below together with a brief review of each component. 396. The allocation of these components to each sector; water supply, sanitation and flooding and drainage is made in the subsequent section of this chapter. 397. Public health, households, businesses, properties, agriculture are likely to be affected with storm and water logging. It is considered the impact will be worsened as a result of climate change and hence the damages costs will be increased compared to the current level. The damage costs estimated below are based on the socio-economic data collected during FGDs and at extreme climate events, such as flood, water logging and cyclone. Data and estimates are also drawn from other reputable studies in determining the costs of the related damages in each sector related to the public and the government. 398. The damage costs are estimated based on the damage caused by climate event of 1 in 10 year period and estimates of additional costs due to accounted climate related variables. Benefits of the proposed interventions will be equal to the identified proportion of damages reduced by the proposed interventions. The basis and assumptions of these damages / benefits are discussed in the following sub-sections of the report.

9.3.1 Summary of damages and benefits 399. To project the future cost of climate change impact, the current damages costs of the Pourashavas due to infrastructure deficit and current climate vulnerability have been estimated. The estimated damage costs under different categories in this section are derived from :  Estimated annual costs incurred on asset, people and health etc due to current infrastructure deficit in water supply and sanitation

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 Damage costs of Cyclone Sidr incurred on asset, people and health etc 9.3.1.1 Damage cost of premature death 400. Poor sanitation and water supply contribute directly pre-mature death. It is difficult to weigh an economic value to premature death. However, an attempt to ascertain the economic value of the premature deaths derived by a discounted cash flow based on the loss of expected future income has been made. The calculation of present value of expected future income lost due to premature death, accounting for the economic loss in productive years is detailed in Annex IX and a summary table is presented below in Table 9-4. Table 9-4 Monetary Value of Premature Death Discounted Total Monetary Value Age range productive years lost mortality value (Taka) (Taka) 0 – 4 years 16.2 10 1,535,497 15,354,967 5 – 14 years 21.9 8 1,798,646 14,389,171 15+ years 19.0 34 1,700,853 57,828,999 Total 87,595,850 Premature death under the coverage of water supply (33.83%) 29,625,992 Source: Global costs and benefits of drinking-water supply and sanitation interventions to reach the MDG target and universal coverage, World Health Organization 2012 and Pourashava data 2012 9.3.1.2 Damage cost of health hazards: 401. With reference to study of World Bank, among the disease related to unsafe water 87.1% were resulting from poor sanitation, while 12.9% were as a result of poor or inadequate water supply. At the field visit, the Consultant found that the total annual disease cases treated in the study towns were 57,853, in which 36,914 cases were water borne diseases 13. Assuming roughly one third of the 36,914 cases were induced by poor water supply and sanitation i.e. 12,488 cases, in which 12.9% of the cases were related to piped water supply (with reference to the World Bank study result which suggests 12.9% of disease relate to poor or inadequate water supply), there are a total of 1,614 cases induced by unsafe water. This estimation is made use of for calculation of damage cost of health hazards. The detail of calculation is provided in Section E of Annex IX and the calculation summary is provided in Table 9-5. Table 9-5 Estimated total medical treatment costs Average Cost (Doctor, Number Test, Medicine & Total in Taka case treated Transport) Total cost of water borne disease 36,914 565 21,975,780 cases treated in 2005 Value extrapolated to current year (2012) 33,043,447 Water borne disease cases treated directly due to poor water 11,178,598 supply and sanitation = 12,488

13 Information has been taken from Upazila health complex and district hospital.

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Health costs due to poor and unsafe water (around 12.92%) 1,443,982

9.3.1.3 Damage cost of welfare and productivity losses 402. In addition to the treatment cost, the cost of welfare and productivity loss due to diseases should be considered. For instance, working people lose income while they are sick and suffering from illness as these would reduce their productivity as compared to normal situation. Children would also miss their school due to illness. 403. Since patients need to be taken care of during their illness, the cost of the attendants time must also be taken into account. The calculation of the cost is detailed in Section E of Annex IX. The cost of welfare and productivity losses is summarized in Table 9-6. Table 9-6 Cost of welfare and productivity losses Income / remuneration per capita per year in Taka14 140,400 Working days considered 250 Working hour considered per day 8 Income / remuneration per hour in Taka 70 Number of attendants who losses productivity because of the of sparing 15 4,773 time to take care of patients Adult 30% Opportunity cost of time Child 15% Children age under 5 11% Children age 5-14 24% Persons age 15+ 65% 404. As detailed in Annex IX the annual cost of welfare and productivity losses = Tk. 182,925. 9.3.1.4 Damage cost due to lack of water treatment 405. Many households do not have access to safe drinking water at their premises. Many people therefore have to treat water for drinking purpose and many of them sometimes have to fetch both drinking and domestic use water, whose quality may not always be safe. 406. As detailed in Section E of Annex IX, the annual cost for domestic water treatment: Tk. 2,813,825. 9.3.1.5 Damage cost to non-piped water supply infrastructure 407. Cyclone Sidr caused huge damage to the non-piped water supply s ystems, 83 deep tube wells, 10 shallow tube wells and 78 hand pumps became unserviceable and inoperative. Annex VII indicated that minimal damage and loss in the source and distribution of water supply had been recorded at the event. As shown in the calculation in Section E of Annex IX, the annual damage cost for deep tube wells, shallow tube wells and hand pumps is Tk. 796,000. 9.3.1.6 Damage cost for lack of piped water: 408. The average monthly cost for piped water is estimated as Tk. 150 per household. Consumption per capita per is 120 litre where 2.92 litre is for drinking with the remainder used

14 Value equivalent to GDP per capita per year (USD 1800 @ $1 = Tk. 78) 15 Assuming one third of the disease cases i.e. 12,488 requires attendants. Hence, the number of attendances who loses productivity because of the need to take care patients is 4,773.

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report for cooking, domestic and sanitation purpose. It is assumed that 50% of the cost is attributable to sanitation and 50% for water. 409. As detailed in Section E of Annex IX the Cost for Piped Water to be added to both water supply and sanitation benefits is Tk. 6,013,800. 9.3.1.7 Damage cost for time spent on water collection 410. One of the significant benefits from a water supply project is the time saved by bringing the source of water closer to households16is the benefit arising from the reduction in collection time. Without the improvement, the population reportedly spends on average 1 hour per day to collect water which is often saline and/or contaminated. Access to water helps communities improve their livelihoods in household activities, farming and animal husbandry– more engagement in agriculture, better vegetation, more crops and improved livestock. This will lead to better and more sustainable income generation activities, and increased welfare. Safe water supply closer to home means saving several hours each day to fetch water which is normally the responsibility of women and children. With women having more time available, they can attend to their children’s welfare and even engage income generating activities helping with the family income. 411. As detailed in the calculation in Section E of Annex IX and summarized in Table 9-7, the total annual time saving cost = TK.17,590,365. Table 9-7 Cost of time savings for water supply Income / remuneration per capita per year in Taka17 140,400 Income/remuneration per hour (250 days @ 8 hrs / day) in Taka 70 Opportunity cost of time (In Bangladesh mainly women and children 15% are fetching water) Value of saved time per hour in Taka 10.53 Value for time saved annually (250 days) in Taka 2,633 Cost of time savings in Taka ( 6,682 households) 17,590,365 9.3.1.8 Damage cost of open defecation 412. The potential time cost saving for avoiding open defecation by using private latrines is estimated as around 0.5 hour per person per day. Assuming 10% of the community has poor sanitation, the economic value of cost of the time saved has been estimated using the opportunity cost of labour. 413. As detailed in Section E of Annex IX the annual cost for time savings by the elimination of open defecation =Tk. 8,524,518. 9.3.1.9 Damage cost for deficiencies in school sanitation and hygiene 414. Lack of appropriate and adequate sanitation facilities at schools can prevent girls from attending schools. Unhygienic latrines and lack of water supply at school also cause diseases among the children. The economic loss due to absence from school that is attributed to poor and inadequate sanitation for girls between ages of 10 to 19 has been estimated. It has been

16Due to high level of contamination as well as salinity people had to walk a distance to get safe water from sources far from their home 17 Value equivalent to GDP per capita per year (USD 1800 @ $1 = Tk. 78)

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report conservatively assumed that each student misses 10 days from school each year due to inadequate sanitation options at school. 415. As detailed in Section E of Annex IX the total value of benefits achieved by enabling due to females not missing school = Tk. 199,228. 9.3.1.10 Damage costs for causalities and injuries due to flooding 416. The most economically important risks and hazards related to drainage and flood control has been established with damage costs based on the damage inflicted on the communities by Cyclone Sidr. 417. : Approximately 98 thousand inhabitants of study towns were exposed to storm-surge- related inundation during Cyclone Sidr in 2007. Post-disaster assessments indicate 24 human casualties and 421 injuries. Although cyclone shelters saved thousands of lives, focus group interviews with the residents of cyclone affected areas revealed that a large section of population was reluctant to move to cyclone shelters even during an emergency18. 418. As calculated in Section E of Annex IX the cost for human casualties in Cyclone Sidr was Tk. 40,279,968, with the assumption that Cyclone Sidr occurs on average every 10 years, Hence, the annual mortality cost is TK. 4,027,997 419. To calculate the economic damages from increased injury risk, the study “Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Cyclones in a Changing Climate: Potential Damages and Adaptation Cost” has been referenced. This study yielded a total economic damage from increased injury risk of $0.352 million for 75,268 injuries. This estimate, however, does not include any value of lost production and income from injury, or the more subjective losses of well‐being resulting from being injured or incapacitated. 420. As calculated in Section E of Annex IX, the damage cost per injured person is Tk. 354, With 421 persons injured and a 1 in 10 year frequency of occurrence, the annualized damage cost is for personal injuries estimated to be Tk. 15,282 9.3.1.11 Damage costs due to flooding related health hazards 421. Flooding causes damages to hospital infrastructure and increases the incidence of water borne diseases. Infrastructure costs can be ascertained using the formula of residential damages cost. Increased incidences of water borne diseases are evaluated by assessing both the additional treatment costs as well as the loss of productivity due to illness. 422. As indicated in Table 9-5 annual incidence of major water borne diseases total around 8.25% among the treated diseases. While anecdotal evidence is available about the higher incidence of such disease due to increased extent of stagnant water from flooding, actual data to estimate the impacts of flooding is hard to come by. However, during the rainy season and its immediate aftermath it is observed that such incidence more and more compare to normal situation. For the purpose of the analysis, a conservative estimate of 1.5 times the incidence of water born disease in the flooded area was used. Average per capita health care costs for treating such water borne related disease are estimated around Tk. 894 at 2012 prices.

18 Distance from the homestead, difficult access to shelters, unwillingness to leave livestock behind unprotected, scarcity of sanitation facilities, lack of user friendly facilities for women, overcrowding condition in shelters are the primary reasons behind their reluctance.

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423. The total number of disease cases treated annually in the study towns in 2012 was 57,85319 of which 4,773 were cases of water borne disease. As calculated in Section E of Annex IX, the cost for flood related damage resulting in health hazards: = Tk. 1,066,766 9.3.1.12 Damages cost to housing resulting from flooding 424. Housing damages have been assessed from the damages resulting from Cyclone Sidr. Almost all of the damages occurred in “Semi-pucca”20, “kacha”21houses, and “jhupris”22. In contrast, “pucca” houses, constructed with brick walls and a concrete roof, remained structurally intact, sustaining minimal damages requiring only replastering of walls. As shown in Section E of Annex IX, the annual cost of damage to houses is shown in Table 9-8 and is estimated as Tk. 14,990,700. Table 9-8 Cost for damaged houses Fully damaged (3,386 nos.) Partially damaged (5,317 nos.) House % of total Value in % of total Value in type Sub Total Sub Total number Taka number Taka Kacha 35 40,000 47,404,000 30 20,000 31,902,000 Jhupri 65 20,000 44,018,000 50 10,000 26,585,000 Total for Cyclone Sidr 91,422,000 58,487,000 Average Annual damage cost 14,990,700 Note1

Note 1: Assumes 10 year recurrence interval 9.3.1.13 Damage costs for repair of houses 425. Repair costs23 are estimated as 6% of building construction costs. Reportedly around 20% of partial damaged buildings (5,317) required repairs. Detailed calculations to assess the repair costs for housing are given in Section E of Annex IX and summarised in Table 9-9. The cost is estimated to be Tk. 21,754,153 Table 9-9 Repair cost for damaged houses in Cyclone Sidr % of Number of Repair Av. No of % of Annual Floor building in buildings costs (Tk. / Value Story per 2 repair 2 cost Area m each needing m ) Per (Taka) building required (Taka) category repair building 1 8.5 67% 713 50.0 2,500 7,575,625 757,563 2 21.2 23% 234 43.75 3,200 6,945,120 69,4512 3 36.8 11% 117 40.0 4,200 7,233,408 723,341 Totals 1,064 21,754,153 2,175,415

19 Team has collected data during field visit (May-2012) 20Typical characteristics of semi-pucca housing are: foundation made of earthen plinth or brick and concrete, walls made of bamboo mats, CI sheet and roof made of CI sheet with timber framing. 21Typical characteristics of kacha housing are: foundation made from earthen plinth with bamboo, walls made of organic materials, and roof thatched made of straw, split bamboo etc. 22Typical characteristics of jhupris are: ceiling less than four feet, cheap construction materials such as straw, bamboo, grass, leaves, polythene, gunny bags, etc. 23 Kolkata Metro City Study by World Bank

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9.3.1.14 Damage costs for education infrastructure 426. 114 educational institutions in the study towns were damaged in Cyclone Sidr, in which 44 were fully damaged. and 70 were partially damaged. As discussed in Annex IX, the damage cost in Cyclone Sidr for partially damaged institutions was estimated as Tk. 10,150,000 and the cost for fully damaged institutions: as Tk. 12,760,000. This resulted in an average annual damaged cost of Education Infrastructure of Tk. 2,291,000. 9.3.1.15 Damage costs for religious centres 427. More than 189 religious centres were destroyed by Cyclone Sidr. As calculated in Section E of Annex IX, the average annual damage cost of religious centres is Tk. 945,000. 9.3.1.16 Damage costs in agriculture and livestock 428. During Cyclone Sidr 8,194 hectares of land were affected by flooding. The economic value of arable crops was estimated by Department of Disaster Management as Tk. 111,219 per hectare. Damage and loss to poultry and livestock were much smaller. As per Department of Disaster Management, numbers of livestock losses were 525 and that of Poultry was 23,827. As calculated in Section E of Annex IX, the annual value for Crop losses is Tk. 91,132,849, the annual value for livestock loss is Tk. 1,011,000; and for poultry is Tk. 270,000 9.3.1.17 Fisheries 429. Substantial damage was caused to hatcheries, ponds, boats and fish nets during Cyclone Sidr. As discussed in Section E of Annex IX, the damage cost was estimated by local officials on a lump sum basis. Based on the damages given in Section E of Annex IX, the following annual damage costs have been estimated; hatcheries Tk. 806,000;ponds with fish Tk. 8,300,000; boats Tk. 8,277,300; and fish nets Tk. 317,800 Loss of operation revenue of income industry 430. Loss of earnings is assessed as the difference in the daily net value added and the avoided variable costs for the number of days business is affected. The number of lost days of business is based on the extent of average flooding and its duration. As calculated in Section E of Annex IX, the annual damage costs for loss of income from industry Tk.16,700. 9.3.1.18 Infrastructure damage costs for industry 431. , The damages were calculated as for domestic higher income property with total space for each industry estimated as 300 m2..As shown in Annex D in Annex IX the average annual damage cost of for repairs to industry is Tk. 100,800. 9.3.1.19 Damage costs of roads 432. Damage to roads accounted for almost all of the damages in the transport sector. Roads are highly sensitive to inundation and become partially damaged with inundation of less than 1 metre and are fully damaged when inundation exceeds 1 metre. As a result, national and regional roads in Bangladesh need to be constructed to lie above the highest flood level (HFL) with a return period of 50 years and feeder roads constructed to lie above normal flood levels24. Repair costs after Cyclone Sidr were estimated at Tk. 2 million per km for fully damaged roads and Tk. 1 million per km for partially damaged roads25. Table 9-10, shows the damage resulting

24 EACC, Bangladesh- June 2010 The World Bank Group 25 EACC, Bangladesh- June 2010 The World Bank Group

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Table 9-10 Cost for road damage caused by Cyclone Sidr Road type Partially damaged Fully damaged Value in Km Total Km Value in Taka Total Taka Pucca 39 1,000,000 39,000,000 - 2,000,000 - kacha 9 100,000 900,000 21 200,000 4,200,000 Total damage cost for Cyclone Sidr 44,200,000 Annual damage cost 4,420,000 9.3.1.20 Embankments 433. Damages in this area were not significant. Only 4 km was damaged and with damage cost of Tk. 30 lac per kilometre cost as estimated by Water Development Board. The annual damage cost for embankment repairs is Tk. 1,200,0000. 9.3.1.21 Utilities 434. Electrical and telecommunication installation damages during Cyclone Sidr were not significant. As shown in Section E of Annex IX the annual damage cost for electrical and communications equipment is Tk. 89,689.

9.3.2 Total damage costs for Sanitation 435. By allocating the cost detailed above to sanitation sector, the total damage costs can be estimated as follows: Table 9-11 Total cost of impacts allocated to Sanitation Impacts Cost in Taka Cost for premature death 29,625,992 Cost for health hazards 9,734,616 Cost for welfare and productivity losses 182,925 Cost for domestic water treatment 2,813,825 Cost for piped water 6,013,800 Cost of open defecation 8,524,517 Cost of females missing schools 199,228 Total 57,094,903

9.3.3 Total damage costs for Water Supply 436. The cost benefits for safe and inadequate water can be established by considering the impacts given in Table 9-12 and summarizing the costs derived above.

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Table 9-12 Impact of unsafe and inadequate water Impact Sub-impacts Financial Costs Non-monetary Costs Categories Doctor’s fee, medicine, Time spent for Treatment Health transport, and accompanying patient to cost diagnostic test cost seek health care Time for fetching safe Time Fetching cost - water Source: Adopted from Economic Impacts of Inadequate Sanitation in Bangladesh: Water and Sanitation Program 2012 437. Allocating the cost benefits detailed above to water supply the total damage costs / benefits are presented below. Table 9-13 Total cost of impacts allocated to Water Supply Impacts Cost in Taka Cost for health hazards (Table 9-5) 1,443,982 Cost for collection of water (Table 9-7) 17,590,365 Total 19,034,048

9.3.4 Total damage costs for flooding and drainage 438. The cost benefits for relief of flooding and drainage problems can be established by considering the current conditions given in Table 9-14. Table 9-14 Summary of flooding & drainage disaster impacts Monetary Non-monetary Direct Indirect Direct Indirect Number of casualties Social Number of Increase of diseases injured. Stress Households Number affected symptoms Economic Loss of wages, Private sector Increase in Housing damaged reduced Households or destroyed purchasing poverty power Public sector Education Assets destroyed Health or Loss of Water and sewage damaged: infrastructure Electricity buildings, roads, services Transport machinery, etc. Emergency spending Economic Sectors Assets destroyed Losses due to

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Agriculture or reduced Industry damaged: production Commerce buildings, Services machinery, crops etc. Loss of natural Effects on

Environmental habitats biodiversity Source ORCHID: Piloting Climate Risk Screening in DFID Bangladesh Nabiul Islam1 and Reinhard Mechler2 439. Allocating the costs detailed above to flooding and drainage results in the following total annual damage costs in a year experiencing climate extreme event (super cyclone):: Table 9-15 Total annual damage costs for flooding and drainage problems Impacts Cost in Taka Cost of human casualties 4,027,997 Cost of injury 15,270 Cost of health hazards 106,677 Cost of damaged houses 14,990,900 Repair cost of damaged houses 2,175,415 Cost of damaged education institutions 2,291,000 Damaged cost of religious centres 945,000 Value of crops 91,132,849 Value of livestock 1,011,000 Value of poultry 270,000 Value of hatcheries 806,000 Value of ponds including fish 8,300,000 Value of boats 8,277,300 Value of fish nets 317,800 Loss of Income from industry 16,700 Repair of cost of industry 100,800 Cost of road damages 4,410,000 Cost of tube wells for water supply 796,000 Cost for embankment damaged 1,200,000 Cost for Utilities 89,689 Total 141,280,396

9.4. Additional impact costs due to climate change: 440. Based on above damage costs calculated, we then deduce the climate change impacts costs by some heuristic assumptions due to limited availability of data. The damage costs of Cyclone Sidr is used as the proxy of a 10 year return period event and it is estimated that that the future climate extreme event will be more intense in the future. Climate change induced global warming will also cause additional costs as stated below.

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9.4.1 Additional costs of water borne diseases 441. Annual incidence of major water borne diseases is total around 8.25% of total diseases treated. While anecdotal evidence is available about the higher incidence of such disease due to increased extent of extreme heat event/heavy rain fall causes unsafe or inadequate water supply, actual data to estimate the impact is hard to come by.. 442. As detailed in Annex IX for the purpose of the analysis, a conservative estimate of 1.5 times the incidence of water borne disease (to 12.37%) has been used and the risk period normally considered to extend over 3 months. It has been estimated that the Annual health costs taking into account extreme heat/heavy rain fall situation will increase to Tk. 3,650,481.

9.4.2 Additional costs of welfare and productivity losses 443. As shown in Annex IX for the purpose of the analysis, the total cost for welfare and productivity losses will increase to Tk. 274,407.

9.4.3 Additional costs on Water Supply 444. In the event of extreme heat due to climate change the demand for water will increase.. Inadequate or disrupted water supply will cause an increase in water borne diseases. 445. To arrive at excess water demand under climate change scenario, the difference in water demand between average and summer season26 was used (ref Annex 6 on Water Supply). Assuming that more summer like conditions will prevail during most of the year on an average, the difference is considered as the excess water demand for climate change and added to the per capita demand. 446. As discussed in Annex IX with the peak daily demand expected to increase by 10% over a 3 month period the Annual additional cost for extreme heat situation = Tk. 300,690. 447. Annual incidence of major water borne diseases is total around 8.25% of total diseases treated. While anecdotal evidence is available to show the higher incidence of such disease due to increased extent of extreme heat event/heavy rain fall from unsafe or inadequate water supply, actual data to estimate the impact is hard to come by. However, at this situation it is observed that such incidence is more frequent as compare to normal situation. For the purpose of the analysis, a conservative estimate of 1.5 times the incidence of water born disease (to 12.37%) is used. 448. Annual cost for extreme heat/heavy rain fall situation is estimated as 50% of the annual cost (see Table 9-5). The annual additional cost of diseases by 50% =Tk. 721,991.

9.4.4 Benefits for sanitation measures 449. In the event of climate change with adaptation measures, as stated in a recent study “Responding to Climate Change in New York State Final Report no. 11-18”, benefits to be considered are 4 times of the adaptation costs. For the purpose of the analysis and due to study limitation, an estimate of 2.5 times of the damages costs of the current infrastructure deficit has been applied in the calculation. It is considered conservative given that that the value for adaptation costs is higher than the damage costs applied.

26 Extreme heat event will exist maximum 3 months of a year

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450. Sanitation Benefits for current climate risk and climate change scenario without adaptation measures = Tk. 57,094,903, (see Table 9-11) 451. As calculated in Annex IX the benefits for climate change scenario with adaptation measures =Tk. 152,549,478.

9.4.5 Adaptation cost for sanitation 452. There is a wide range of potential adaptations to the impacts of climate change on sanitation systems; these include infrastructure investment and subsequent management and operations / recurrent costs27. It is assumed that the initial investment will be invested over a period of 5 years (2015 to 2020) at flat rate. Table 9-16 Sanitation Investment and recurrent cost Initial investment cost Recurrent cost @10% of initial Scenario Description Note1 (2015 to 2020) investment (2020 to 2050) Taka million Upgrading current A. 291 0.97 infrastructure deficit Future situation considering climate B 291 0.97 change without adaptation Future situation C. considering climate 398 1.33 change with adaptation Note 1: spread over 30 year period

9.4.6 Benefits for Water Supply 453. In the event of current climate risk and climate change scenario without adaptation measures, benefits are equal to impact costs. In the event of climate change with adaptation measures, as stated in a recent study “Responding to Climate Change in New York State Final Report no. 11-18” that benefits to be considered are 4 times of the adaptation costs. For the purpose of the analysis, an estimate of 2.5 times the damage costs due to current infrastructure deficit instead of the adaptation costs has been applied in this calculation. It is considered to be more conservative given that the value of adaptation costs is higher than the damage costs applied. Benefits for current climate risk and climate change scenario without adaptation measures = Tk. 19,034,048 as seen in Table 9-7. As discussed in Section 9.4.3 the additional costs associated with the supply of water and additional health costs are Tk. 300,690 and Tk. 721,991. Summing these costs and multiplying by 2.5 gives the water supply benefits for climate change scenario with adaptation measures =Tk. 50,141,8230.

9.4.7 Adaptation cost for Water Supply 454. There is a wide range of potential adaptations to the impacts of climate change on water supply systems; these are infrastructure investment and subsequent management and operations/recurrent costs28. Initial investment will be invested over a period of 5 years at flat rate.

27Responding to Climate Change in New York State Final Report no. 11-18 28 Responding to Climate Change in New York State Final Report no. 11-18

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455. Upgrading current infrastructure deficit i. Initial investment: Tk. 101.7 Million ii. Operation and maintenance cost: Tk. 14.3 Million (see Table 9-17)

Table 9-17 Audited Income Statement Water Unit of Pourashavas Heads Amtali Galachipa Pirojpur Value for 2012 Total income 2,543,030 2,481,134 10,459,858 18,441,718 from water units Total expenditure 1,679,589 1,896,538 8,430,637 14,300,248 of water units Net income 863,441 584,596 2,029,221 4,141,470 Source: Income Statement of 3 study Pourashavas

Table 9-18 Water Supply Investment and recurrent cost Initial Total operating Recurrent cost @10% Scenario Description investment cost expenditure of initial investment (2015 to 2020) (2012) (2020 to 2050) 1 Taka million Upgrading current A. infrastructure 101.7 14.30 0.34 deficit Future situation considering B 1,637 14.30 5.1 climate change without adaptation Future situation considering C. 1,759 14.30 5.5 climate change with adaptation Note 1 spread of 30 years with Operating cost subtracted

9.4.8 Additional impact costs due to climate change for Flooding & Drainage 456. Experience of Bangladesh during the most recent devastating Cyclone Sidr in 200729 showed that the extent of storm surge inundation during Sidr was 8.7% more than an average inundated area of a historical 10 year return period cyclone of Bangladesh). Taking into account the climate change by 2050, the storm surge‐induced inundation area estimates indicate a potential 69% increase in the vulnerable zone with more than 3m inundation depth and 14% increase in the vulnerable zone with more than 1m inundation depth. At present, a 10‐ year return period cyclone with an average wind speed of 223 km/ hour (as recorded during the cyclone Sidr, 2007) covers 26% of the vulnerable zone; presuming a similar cyclone will be more intense with global warming and is likely to cover 43%30 of the vulnerable zone by 2050 in the 3 study towns.

29“Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Cyclones in a Changing Climate: Potential Damages and Adaptation Cost: The World Bank 2010 30 Source: Same as footnote 17

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457. The post disaster damage and loss estimates revealed the most recent 10 year return period cyclone in Bangladesh (e.g. Sidr in 2007) result in an annual financial damage and loss of Tk. 1,413 million in the 3 study townships. (See Table 9-15) 458. If we consider that the area affected by Cyclone SIDR covered 26% of coastal areas and that the expected intensity of future cyclone will be higher and cover 43% of the coastal areas, an additional 17%, we can assess the additional flooding and drainage damage costs due to event of a 10 year return period as Tk. 1,413 million*17%/26%= Tk. 92,376 million

9.4.9 Benefits 459. In the event of climate change with adaptation measures, as stated in a recent study “Responding to Climate Change in New York State Final Report no. 11-18”, benefits to be considered 4 times of the adaptation costs. For the purpose of the analysis, the damage costs due to extreme climate event at the present situation in a 10 year return period instead of adaptation costs has been applied. It is considered conservative given that the value of adaptation costs are higher than the damage costs applied. 460. Annual flooding and drainage damage costs for current climate risk and climate change scenario without adaptation measures = (Tk. 141,280,396 + Tk. 92,375,64) = Tk. 233,656,039. On the other hand, annual flooding and drainage benefits for climate change scenario with adaptation measures = Tk. 233,656,039 x 4 = Tk. 934,624,156.

9.4.10 Adaptation cost: 461. There is a wide range of potential adaptations to the impacts of climate change on flooding and drainage; these are infrastructure investment and subsequent management and operations/recurrent costs31. Initial investment will be invested over a period of 5 years at flat rate (20%). Table 9-19 Flooding & Drainage Investment and recurrent cost Initial investment Recurrent cost @10% of initial Scenario Description 1 cost (2015 to 2020) investment (2020 to 2050) Taka million Upgrading current A. 2,247 7.49 infrastructure deficit Future situation considering climate B 2,251 7.50 change without adaptation Future situation C. considering climate 2,564 8.55 change with adaptation Note 1 spread of 30 years

9.4.11 Value of benefits over project life 462. For the three components, water supply, sanitation and flooding and drainage, the value of the benefits have been increased over the successive years considering the following rates:

31Responding to Climate Change in New York State Final Report no. 11-18

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Income: i. Yearly increment @ 5% ii. Yearly connection increment @ 15% Benefit: iii. Average population growth rate @ 2.36% iv. GDP growth rate @ 6% Recurrent Cost: v. Average inflation rate @ 6% And O/M Cost 9.5. Cost Analysis for Recommended Options of Study Towns 463. As discussed in Section 9.4, substantial infrastructure deficits were identified in each town where the existing drainage, flood embankments, water supply, sanitation and solid waste facilities are inadequate. A schedule of the works required and a cost estimate is given below. (Prices have been converted to dollars at the rate of 78 Taka = $1.0, February 2013)

9.5.1 Basis/Sources of Price Consideration 464. Sub Component – Water Supply: Prices for production well, overhead tank and pipe networks have been analyzed from on-going different projects of DPHE. Price for river dredging has been obtained from Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Corporation (BIWTC) 465. Sub Component –Sanitation: Latrine sets including price for escalating ladder of sanitation has been considered from the sanitation catalogue published by World Bank. The lower range 32 prices for improvement have been assumed by the project. For school and community latrine the same policy will be applied. As agreed in the focus group discussion, the Pourashava will provide land for a sanitary landfill / dumping zone from Khas Land33. Amount for capacity building has been kept on lump sum basis. 466. Sub Component – Drainage and Flood Control: Price for excavation has been analyzed from on-going different projects of Bangladesh Water Development Board under Faridpur Circle. Price for construction of embankment and blocks for flood protection have been obtained from on-going different projects of Bangladesh Water Development Board under Faridpur Circle. Unit price for cyclone shelter has been extracted from EACC – Bangladesh, World Bank Group. Price for raising/development of area of Killa has been analyzed from Schedule of Rates of BWDB

9.5.2 Total Infrastructure Deficit Year 2013 467. The total infrastructure deficit in the 3 Pilot towns for 2013 is summarized below in Table 9-20 and Table 9-21 in Million Taka and US dollars respectively: Detailed breakdown of the costs is given in Section C of Annex IX. Table 9-20 Summary of Existing Infrastructure deficit in Pilot towns (Million Taka) Option Amtali Galachipa Pirojpur Total Water Supply 32.1 33.3 36.3 101.7 Sanitation & solid waste 42.0 96.0 153.0 291.0 Drainage and Flood Control 719.7 435.3 1,096.4 2,251.5 Total 793.8 564.6 1,285.7 2,644.1

32In case of replacement individual can easily replace the latrine set 33 Khas land refers to the land owned by the government

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Table 9-21 Summary of Existing Infrastructure deficit in Pilot towns (US $) Option Amtali Galachipa Pirojpur Total Water Supply 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.3 Sanitation & solid waste 0.5 1.2 1.9 3.7 Drainage and Flood Control 9.2 5.5 14.1 28.8 Total 10.1 7.2 16.4 33.8

9.6. Infrastructure Evaluation by Year 2050 468. The infrastructure deficits in each town were then evaluated for conditions prevailing in 2050 without the effect of climate change i.e. business as usual. Only the infrastructure for water supply34 was found to require significant additional infrastructure for the 2050 scenario without climate change. This is mainly due to increases in predicted population and to the extension of the water supply network service areas. (See Annex 6 on Water Supply). 469. The infrastructure deficit was then re-evaluated considering the impact of climate change again for the 2050 scenario. Under the joint influence of rising sea-levels and increasing rainfall amounts future climate change significantly impacts the drainage and flooding problems in coastal Pourashavas. Therefore the additional costs involved in considering climate change impacts are highest for the drainage component, 470. Only the 2050 time horizon has been considered because the climate change projections for the 2030s time horizon do not show any significant difference to the present and required adaptation to climate change is negligible with efforts focused on bridging current adaptation deficits. 471. A summary of the works required in each town is given in the tables below where it can be clearly seen that in each of the Pourashavas the current infrastructural deficits are high and the additional costs attributable to climate change costs are relatively small. Out of the components considered, the climate change linked costs are a maximum for the drainage and flood control component. 472. There is about 11% increase in cost estimated for developing water sector infrastructure that is resilient to climate change. Most of these investments will be also enable Pourashavas and communities to better adapt to present climate risks.

34Mainly sanitation is individual level. Initially project will provide hygiene latrine to the poor community for to excel the ladder. Other items (community latrine, school latrine, damping zone etc. are suffix to cater the services of the increase population

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Table 9-22 Total Cost by 2050 considering Climate Change Scenario without Adaptation measures (In Million) Amtali Galachipa Pirojpur Total Option BDT US$ BDT US$ BDT US$ BDT US$ Water Supply 298 3.8 290 3.7 1,048 13.4 1,637 20.9 Sanitation 42 0.5 96 1.2 153 1.9 291 3.7 Drainage and 719 9.2 435 5.6 1,096 14.1 2,251 28.9 Flood Control Total 1,059 13.5 821 10.5 2,297 29.4 4,179 53.5

Total Cost for Climate Resilient Adaptation Measures

50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000

30,000 Water Supply 25,000 Sanitation

BDT in Lac in BDT 20,000 Drainage and Flood Control 15,000 Total 10,000 5,000 0 Amtali Galachipa Pirojpur Total Study Towns

Figure 9-1 Total Cost by 2050 considering Climate Change Scenario with Adaptation Measures

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Table 9-23 Total Cost by 2050 considering Climate Change Scenario with Adaptation Measures (In Million) Amtali Galachipa Pirojpur Total Option BDT US$ BDT US$ BDT US$ BDT US$ Water Supply 334 4.2 326 4.2 1,098 14.1 1,759 22.5 Sanitation 57 0.7 131 1.7 210 2.7 398 5.1 Drainage and Flood Control 826 10.5 508 6.5 1,230 15.7 2,564 32.8 Total 1,217 15.6 965 12.3 2,538 32.5 4,721 60.4

Cost for Options without Climate Resilient Adaptation Measures

45,000 40,000 35,000

30,000 Water Supply 25,000 20,000 Sanitation

BDT in Lac in BDT 15,000 Drainage and Flood Control 10,000 Total 5,000 0 Amtali Galachipa Pirojpur Total Study Towns

Figure 9-2 Total cost by 2050 considering Climate Change Scenario without Adaptation Measures

Table 9-24 Percentage Increase in Costs as a result of Climate Change with Adaptation Measures Option Amtali Galachipa Pirojpur Total Water Supply 11 11 5 7 Sanitation 27 27 27 27 Drainage and Flood Control 13 14 11 12 Total 13 15 10 11

9.7. Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) 473. CBA is the main technique used to appraise public/government investment projects and policies. CBA has its origins in the rate-of return assessment/financial appraisal methods

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Box 9.1: Main principles of CBA

. Revealed vs. expressed preferences: In the revealed preference-approach, available market prices for goods (such as used for reconstructing a building) are used; in the expressed preference approach the value of a non-marketed good, such as the value of flood protection, is directly elicited.

. With-and without-approach: CBA compares the situation with and without the project / investment, not the situation before and after.

. Focus on selection of “best-option”: CBA is used to single out the best option rather than calculating the desirability to undertake a project per se.

. Societal point of view: CBA takes a social welfare approach. The benefits to society have to outweigh the costs in order to make a project desirable. The question addressed is whether a specific project or policy adds value to all of society, not to a few individuals or business.

9.8. Limitations of the analysis

9.8.1 Impacts 474. Impacts and adaptation measures under different climate change scenarios for the proposed options were derived from primary and secondary data subject to several limitations. Most of the damage data is based on losses reported during the two severe cyclone events Sidir and Aila. These events represent extreme scenarios and may have lead to an overestimation of damages. 475. For certain impacts, estimates can be made about the time period during which they will be felt, and thus some information will be provided about the potential effects of discounting on these costs.

9.8.2 Adaptations measures 476. Adaptations can occur at any point over the time horizon of a project, and therefore their costs will also be subject to discounting. However, if adaptations will occur in the near term and then the effect of discounting will be relatively small. 9.9. Financial and Economic Analysis

9.9.1 Approach 477. The analysis would provide an overview assessment of the potential economic costs of impacts and adaptation to climate change in water supply, sanitation and drainage & flood control areas in Amtali, Galachipa and Pirojpur Pourashavas. The goal of the analysis is to

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9.9.2 Methodology 480. Quantitative and qualitative analyses have been undertaken to demonstrate the socio- economic impacts under the project. A benefit-cost framework has been used to calculate Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) and Net Present Value (NPV) including Cost-Benefit Ratio of the project for various sub-components considering:  Business as usual i.e. upgrading infrastructure deficits with no climate change situation;  Future situation considering climate change scenario without adaptation measures; and  Future Situation considering climate change scenario with adaptation measures” 481. The future situation considering climate change without adaptation measures is what would have been prevailed if no climate change measures are adapted for the project taking into account factors such as population increase, continued exposure to saline and polluted water, and ignoring the increased risk to health hazards/diseases, extreme heat events, heavy rain fall causing drainage congestion, exposure to tidal surges, and floods. 482. The full range of economic benefits derived from this project cannot be measured due to inadequate data. As far as possible, selected meaningful quantifiable benefits are estimated and/or taken from recent studies, analytical work (secondary data) and some cases primary data through FGD(also face to face interview) for calculating the net benefit of this intervention. Combined with the very conservative assumptions, the quantified results and net benefits presented here are probable estimation of the true impacts and full benefits of provision of water, sanitation and drainage & flood control to the individuals as well as the communities. 483. In each of the subcomponents, impacts and adaptations are evaluated according to following levels:  Level 1: Detailed assessment of costs for Base Year and 2050 where data is available;  Level 2: Generalized estimates where data is limited. These estimates are based on literature review and expert judgment;  Level 3: Qualitative discussion where cost data is insufficient or lacking but there is general knowledge of impact and adaptation measures.

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9.9.3 Findings and key Results 484. Economic analysis indicates that the project is economically viable and expected to bring sizable economic and social benefits to the community in the project areas, who are badly served with respect to access to safe water and sanitation facilities. In addition, drainage and flood management measures will be under taken to protect the community from extreme climate change situations. The project would be well justified on the basis of direct benefits to an estimated around 100,000 habitants of the locality. With estimated population increase of 2.36%35 per annum the number of direct beneficiaries will be over 200,000 in the 30 years of expected project life.

Table 9-25 Future situation (2050) considering climate change scenario without adaptation measures36 Options BCR EIRR NPV BDT mio Water Supply (Profit Centre) 7.60 12.09% 23 Sanitation (Cost Centre) 18.80 27.54% 609 Drainage and Flood Management 9.95 17.60% 1,505 (Cost Centre)

Table 9-26 Future situation (2050) considering climate change scenario with adaptation measures Options BCR EIRR NPV BDT mio Water Supply (Profit Centre) 8.38 13.38% 389 Sanitation(Cost Centre) 36.71 46.36% 1,981 Drainage and Flood Management 34.92 44.49% 12,025 (Cost Centre)

485. The above scenarios indicate that EIRRs for upgrading to current deficits are higher than the discounting rate (12%) and a relatively small incremental cost associated with upgrading for future climate resilience. Present value for net returns and cost benefit ratios are significantly high for all scenarios. Table 9-27 Sensitivity Analysis- Costs37 Overrun by 20% under 2050 considering climate resilience scenario with adaptation measures Options BCR EIRR NPV BDT mio Water Supply (Profit Centre) 7.39 12.19% 60 Sanitation(Cost Centre) 30.59 39.97% 1,907 Drainage and Flood Management(Cost 29.10 38.41% 11,546 Centre)

35 An average of 3 study town has been considered ( Amtali – 3.66%, Galachipa – 2.01% and Pirojpur 1.42% 36 BCR refers to Benefit-Cost Ratio; EIRR to Economic Internal Rate of Return and NPV to net Present Value 37Costs refer to investment cost including land acquisition cost and recurrent cost

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486. Sensitivity analysis indicates that all subcomponents analyzed are robust with respect to negative changes in benefits, construction and maintenance costs, total costs and land acquisition costs. Table 9-28 Overall Scenarios by 2050 Options BCR EIRR NPV BDT mio Climate Change Scenario without 9.29 15.78% 2,138 adaptation measures Climate Change Scenario with 27.18 32.77% 14,567 adaptation measures Climate Change Scenario with adaptation measures under cost 23.40 28.71% 13,722 overrun situation (sensitivity analysis)

487. Steps to build capacity in climate resilience situations will enhance the knowledge and skills of government staff as well as local communities enabling them for better respond to climate impacts on infrastructure and livelihoods. The project will, in particular, benefit women through engaging them in other livelihood opportunities skills training, and participation infrastructure planning, decision-making, and construction and maintenance(notably through the use of local contracting societies for project civil works). These efforts will attain them to improve and enhance their incomes and quality of life.

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10. Strengthening the Capacity and Awareness of Key Stakeholders 488. Capacity Building is defined as “the creation of an enabling environment with appropriate policy and legal frameworks, institutional development, including community participation (of women in particular), human resources development and strengthening of managerial systems” (UNDP, http://www.undp.org/). It is recognized as a long term, continuing process, in which all stakeholders participate (ministries, local authorities, non-governmental organizations and water user groups, professional associations, academics and others). 489. Economically buoyant, socially vibrant, and environmentally sound human settlements under conditions of continuing and rapid urbanization will increasingly depend on the capacity of all levels of stakeholders to reflect the priorities of communities, to encourage and guide local development and forge partnership between the private, public, voluntary and community sectors. Capacity Building is to be directed towards supporting decentralization and the participatory urban management process. 490. In order to streamline both on locally and nationally, the impact of climate change on urban water, drainage and sanitation in coastal towns and how to respond to the changes to know crucial for all key stakeholders towards a sustainable development. Information alone would not build capacity of people to respond to climate risks. Depending on the level of knowledge and information, capacity building might be necessary at various tires and across sectors. Strengthening capacity may be of different types which include raising awareness through information; providing orientation, formal or informal training, continued education, exposure visit for good practice of adaptation, etc. It is expected that a society (or a community) will respond to climate risks better if capacity of its stakeholders are much improved. Professionals serving in various official positions in government ministries, departments, directorates, agencies and organizations can also identify how climate change will affect the scope of their work, duties, role and responsibilities in the various decisions they take, particularly in making policies, programs and projects for development in respective sectors and in addressing key national priorities and concerns. Enhancing capacity is therefore considered to be a fundamental element in responding to climate change and adaptation (Olsson, 2003). 10.1. National and Institutional 491. National and institutional bodies are an essential part of the governance process of a country. These bodies at different levels have the responsibility of delivering services in several areas within their respective legal boundaries. Strengthening capacity of the focal points of these bodies is crucial so that programs would be planned centrally but executed through the concerned line ministries and agencies within an integrated planning and management framework. During the course of the CDTA implementation there were two major workshops conducted at the National level involving stakeholders from key government departments and agencies. Particular emphasis was on having working group discussions that put together Pourashava representatives with representatives from National agencies. Details of the Workshops conducted in Dhaka during September 2012 and February 2013 are contained in Annex X. 10.2. In Pourashava 492. Pourashavas in the coastal zone are instrumental in management of critical coastal resources. They will play a major role to mobilize and motivate the people for judicious use and conservation of natural resources to ensure sustainability of coastal livelihoods. Awareness,

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report motivation, training of the elected representatives in Pourashavas including all women representatives will enable them for participatory planning, assist in harnessing natural resources in a sustainable manner for the poor and work with CBOs, NGOs, GOs, LGs, civil societies from their respective locations and fields. 493. To raise awareness of stakeholders and develop skills for better adapting to climate change the present CDTA organized FGDs, local and national workshop and trainings for key central and local government officials.

10.2.1 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) 494. For a wide range of participation of stakeholders based on bottom up approach is necessary through sharing with and learning from local people of their perceptions, experience and in depth knowledge on local climatology, and assess how are these currently considered and how future climate change will influence or cause additional stresses in socio-economic pattern in coastal towns. Keeping this in mind, the CDTA team conducted FGDs with direct and indirect stakeholders of the project at three selected Pourashavas. The first series of FGDs were conducted in each of the three Pourashavas during 21-14th May 2012. This was an organized rapid exercise conducted by the social development and participation specialist during the field visit undertaken by the CDTA Team (details in section E of Annex X). The objectives of these FGDs were to look into and review the social, gender issues and the issues of vulnerable groups. Specific attention was on assessment of impact of climate extremes on citizens socio-economic patterns and to explore people’s perceptions on options to reduce climate vulnerabilities. 495. The second set of FGDs were conducted back to back during Dec 30, 2012 to Jan 1, 2013 (details in section E of Annex X). The FGDs were conducted in an organized manner - where number of participants discussed options for adaptation in road and communication structure along with other infrastructures, safe water supply and sanitation, public health, drainage, disaster preparedness and flood control system etc. prescheduled topics. Participants were contacted beforehand on place and time of discussion. The outcome of the FGDs  Formulation of a list of opinions and views of the stakeholders/beneficiaries based on the discussion in FGD  Analysis and report qualitative ideas and insights by stakeholders, this was help incorporated in the prioritization of adaptation measures  Share new angle of thoughts and useful insights in formulating climate resilience options for adaptation measures to address the actual ground-level needs

10.2.2 Workshops 496. Three workshops were conducted, one each at the selected Pourashavas in during 31 January 2013 to 2 February 2013. A wide range of participants from various organization including Mayor, Pourashava officials and other government and Non-government agencies, civil societies are expected to be attend in each workshop at Pourashava. Each Paurashava workshops was conducted with around 70 participants. Among these, earlier participants in the FGDs were also participated in these workshops. So far it was observed that among total participants there were 30% female participants. 497. The final national workshop was conducted in Dhaka to share the outcome of the project and discuss the range of climate resilient options to be taken up for each sector. The meeting

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10.2.3 Technical Trainings 499. Two technical trainings were conducted during the course of the project. These training programs were mainly meant for key LGED officials, Pourashava engineers and technical staff working in departments at Pourashava level. The trainings were conducted by IWFM, BUET with some CDTA consultants serving as resource persons. 500. The first one-day Training workshop was focused on Hydrological data collection and was held on 14th July 2012 at LGED office in Dhaka. The trained personnel were also proposed to be involved in field data collection during the ongoing monsoon season so that the data collected could be used for calibrating the Urban Drainage Model being set up for each Pourashava. Twenty participants attended the training workshop, details of which are given in section B of Annex X. 501. The second technical training workshop was a 3-day event held during 19-21 April, 2013. The training program was originally scheduled during the third week of February, 2013, but could not be held due to closures called during demonstrations in Dhaka city. In view of the limited capacity in Urban Drainage modelling in LGED as well as at the Pourashava level it was proposed to focus the training on SWMM Urban Drainage Model that had been set-up for undertaking climate change impacts on urban drainage at the three project Pourashavas. This technical training workshop was attended by 11 participants. Details of this training workshop are given in section C of Annex X. 10.3. Summary

502. Table 10-1 provides an event wise summary of all the Capacity building activities undertaken by the CDTA Team. Detailed reports of the Workshops and FGDs are provided in Annex X.

10.3.1 Future Capacity Building needs 503. While the direction of future climate risks in Bangladesh seems clear, its magnitude and timing is less certain. Given the high cost of infrastructure investments, and the expected gradual increase in climate risk over decades, a prudent strategy would be to focus on improving the way in which current climate-related risks are dealt. This includes appreciation of the value of climate information and relates this information to specific uses. Such actions not only provide immediate benefits, but also improve the capacity to address climate risks in the future. Capacity building plays a major role in appreciation of information about climate risks and utilizing it in practical ways. This needs to be supplemented with additional research activities to reduce the large uncertainties about future climate risks. These efforts can provide guidance for the extent of adaptation and the prioritization of investments (World Bank, 2010). 504. The CDTA has undertaken significant efforts across sectors to recommend practical and effective options for the location of water – intake works, the appropriate design of drainage systems, urban wastewater discharge, and the location of sanitation infrastructure. The study considers various climate proofing options both engineering and non-engineering. The nature of project stands for involvement of a wide range of stakeholders – LGED, local government

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report bodies, urban communities, NGOs, and so on. Involvement of such a wide range of stakeholders also needs building capacity in their respective areas to make a meaningful contribution to the successful implementation of the project and sustenance of its benefits. Further, these stakeholders need to be updated with the latest technology and best practices, so that it is essential to put in place a continuous capacity development process to make them fully prepared for shouldering the responsibility of implementing the proposed climate resilient adaptation project. 505. As both climate science and its applications are continually evolving and so are the technologies and relative ability of the community to absorb them, capacity building in climate resilience is seen as ongoing process. For example Figure 10- below gives the process of evolving Municipal Adaptation Plans.

Figure 10-1 Process for developing a Municipal Adaptation Plan (MAP)

506. The widespread adoption of research findings on adaptation is a social learning process (Fussel, 2007). This process can be facilitated by: i. Establishment of dialogues in which research findings are shared (or co-created) with relevant stakeholders; ii. Mobilization of public and private resources to implement effective adaptation measures; iii. Creation of fora by means of which knowledge of what works (or does not), and why, can be exchanged across;

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10.3.2 Growing the knowledge base 507. Effective decision-making relies on access to good information. In the development context, a lack of credible information can potentially expose governments, developers and the community to unacceptable levels of risk. There are still many gaps in our knowledge of likely climate change impacts. Also, technology and innovation is a continually evolving process. Ongoing support and investment in climate change-related research and collaboration is therefore necessary to ensure access to reliable information. For urban planning and development, ongoing research is needed in areas including:

i. developing climate change projections and models as well as urban micro- climate and impacts modelling tools ii. identifying future market, training and skill needs iii. developing new urban planning and design approaches as well as technologies and materials that minimise emissions and maximise adaptation responses iv. behaviour change and community engagement strategies to optimise uptake and implementation of climate change adapted lifestyles. 508. Partnering and collaborating on key research projects/institutions also allows information to be more effectively disseminated across different sectors. This also maximizes research capacity by reducing possible duplication in projects and through sharing of ideas, methods and other knowledge.

10.3.3 Strategies to disseminate information 509. All government and Non-Government stakeholders need to seek out and collaborate on urban development projects that demonstrate leading and innovative sustainable urban design. i. Other key strategies could include using: ii. learning and skills development plans to transfer knowledge within stakeholders iii. infrastructure procurement strategies that demonstrate and use innovative ClimateSmart materials, technologies or processes iv. design competitions and workshops to share knowledge, identify barriers and develop innovative solutions. v. Managing climate change risks through collective effort

510. Effectively responding to the climate change challenge will require skills from all disciplines. Therefore, frameworks are needed to facilitate inter-disciplinary interactions and collective effort in order to develop and implement successful climate change policies and strategies. Part of the information barrier identified by many stakeholders is the problem of accessing the skills and knowledge needed to respond to climate change issues. In the urban planning and development context, all the stakeholders need to facilitate opportunities for interdisciplinary exchanges including community engagement. These exchanges need to meet multiple objectives including: i. disseminating information

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ii. providing ongoing opportunities for identifying and implementing strategic and sector-specific ways to manage climate change risks, adapt to climate change impacts. In other words, thoughtful deliberation, debate and community engagement is fundamental to delivering meaningful behaviour change across society.

10.3.4 Lack of skills 511. The shortage of skilled personnel in Bangladesh has created problems for both government and the development agencies. Government’s inability to recruit skilled planning and development staff has resulted in skills shortage. This has negatively affected government’s ability to meet planning and development service delivery needs. High economic and population growth has also resulted in increased volumes of development applications, creating delays in the development assessment process due to a lack of skilled staff. Ongoing professional development courses in climate change and sustainability are also needed, especially as technological and climate change knowledge evolves. The lack of skilled technical people to install and provide ongoing maintenance services for new sustainable technologies is also an issue. It can also be viewed as a risk, resulting in extra, more stringent conditions or additional information requests. 512. There is also a skills gap among planners and managers in understanding climate change science and effectively translating this into the development assessment process. Gaps in knowledge of and skills in sustainable design and technology increase the likelihood using inappropriate development conditions. 513. The planning and development reforms is necessary to help address the skills shortage by providing: − tailored training packages for staff involved in urban planning and development − funding for training to increase the supply of planning professionals − more professional development opportunities for current staff.

10.3.5 Public information and education 514. Public information and education on coastal hazards and risk underpins all aspects of coastal hazard risk management planning. Increased public awareness of coastal hazard risk can be achieved though  non-statutory approaches such as making available and/or facilitating and supporting: educational material, websites, public talks and meetings, effective use of media, Coast care groups (to build practical community experience and ‘ownership’ of issues). Technical reports on the extent and significance of coastal hazards, and on options for reducing risks associated with these hazards are also important.  statutory mechanisms including: incorporating hazard and risk information in national and district and Paurashava plans, and other supporting statutory and non-statutory planning documents such as Long-term Community Risk Mitigation Plans, strategic plans and possibly annual plans. Ongoing projects like the CDMP has already initiated such assessment and plans formulations  the Land Information Memorandum, which summarises all information that a Paurashava holds for a piece of land needs to include information on potential erosion

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and inundation hazards that may affect the site. This will prepare the public who are considering purchasing and or developing a property.

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Table 10-1 Summary of Capacity Building Activities Conducted during the course of the CDTA No Event Objective Date Location Participant Participated Key Achievements s Organization 1. Field visit/ Working To share the April Three Three Information sharing about Committee project objectives 21-25, selected ------Pourashavas project objectives meetings Chaired among the 2012 Paurashava LGED Awareness raising on by Mayors of respective three (Pirojpur, DPHE climate change concerns respective Paurashavas Galacipa- BWDB Pourashavas and Amtali) informal consultations 2. Field visit and To observe May Three Amtali 4; Three Occupational Status of Focus Group socio-economic 20-24, selected Galachipa Paurashavas participants by sex Discussion condition of the 2012 Paurashava 11, Pirojpur Existing adaptation habitants, (Pirojpur, 5, adding measures with climate demographic Galacipa- up to a total variability situation and Amtali) of 20 Climate change impacts on collect necessary socio-economic pattern in data/information Paurashavas for the Interim report. 3. Training workshop To provide July LGED, 20 Three Paurashava and Local on Hydrological training the 14, Dhaka Pourashavas Engineers are able to assist data collection Paurashava and 2012 and LGED- collect hydrological data local Engineers Dhaka Create awareness on the for assisting maintaining storm data hydrological data collection system collection, installation of water level gauges and other measuring instruments and create awareness on the maintaining storm

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No Event Objective Date Location Participant Participated Key Achievements s Organization data collection systems in the major canals. 4. 1st National To share and Septem LGED, 90 Officials from Create awareness about Workshop disseminate ber Dhaka the three impacts of climate change project objectives 26, Paurashavas,, among the stakeholders to the 2012 LGED, Portrait present scenarios beneficiaries and BWDB, of the selected study towns stakeholders, MoLGRD&C, Identify structural and other share findings DoE, MoWCA, feasible options presented in the Planning Interim Report, Commission, particularly the ERD, DPHE, Baseline situation WARPO, of each DMB, , WB, Pourashava, DU, CDMP, develop capacity CEGIS, Civil of LGED and societies and Paurashava administration and recommend best alternative options for the study town 5. Focus Group To disseminate Decemb Three Amtali-36, Mayor, Formulate a list of opinions Discussion the concept and er selected Galachipa- councilors based on the discussion knowledge of 30-31, Paurashava 36, Pirojpur- from Gain useful insights in climate change 2012 (Pirojpur, 36 respective formulating climate adaptation and Galacipa- totalling to Paurashavas, resilience options for measures to be January Amtali) 108 EE Engineers adaptation measures to under taken by 01, from address the actual needs TA, assess and 2013 LGED,RHD, prioritize the DPHE, climate change Teacher, adaptation social worker, measures based NGO, etc

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No Event Objective Date Location Participant Participated Key Achievements s Organization on the needs and opinions by the stakeholders 6. Paurashava To share the January Three Amtali-60, Mayor, Prioritization of adaptation Workshop specific findings 31, selected Galachipa- councilors measures for different of the project and 2013 Paurashava 60, Pirojpur- from thematic areas I selected obtain the and (Pirojpur, 70 respective coastal towns feedback from Februar Galacipa- , totalling up Paurashavas, stakeholders y Amtali) to190 EE Engineers regarding the 01-02, from climate resilient 2013 LGED,RHD, options proposed DPHE, measures in Teacher, urban areas and social worker, and prioritize the NGO, etc climate change adaptation measures based on the needs of study towns 7. National Workshop To share results Februar LGED, 99 Officials from Awareness build up on of the project y Dhaka registered three regarding this TA among all “Strengthening the findings, aware 07, participants Paurashava,, stakeholders Resilience of the the needs for 2013 LGED, Guidance for PPTA Urban Water climate resilience BWDB, Supply, while planning for MoLGRD&C, Drainage and infrastructural DoE, MoWCA, Sanitation to development, Planning Climate Change in and adapt with Commission, Coastal Towns climate change ERD, DPHE, (ADB TA 7890- WARPO, BAN): Study DMB, BUET, Recommendations” WB, JICA, DU, CDMP, CEGIS and Civil societies

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No Event Objective Date Location Participant Participated Key Achievements s Organization consultants, etc 8. Training Workshop To build capacity April 19- BUET, 11 Paurashava- Understand urban drainage on Urban Drainage to understand 21, Dhaka Engineers and problems and issues Modeling for and simulate 2013 Engineers- Skills on urban drainage Coastal Towns of urban drainage LGED, Dhaka modelling Bangladesh model, capacity Design of drainage considering Climate to analysis and networks considering Change interpret output climate change from the model, understand and select the alternative design options and facilitate incorporation of climatic risks in the storm water drainage planning

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11. Conclusions and Recommendations 515. The objective of the study was to assess the potential impacts of climate change on urban water supply, sanitation, drainage systems, water availability and salinity in the three selected Pourashavas such as Amtali, Galachipa and Pirojpur, thereby to recommend practical and effective options to build climate resilience in the areas of water-intake works, the design of drainage systems, urban wastewater discharge and the location of sanitation infrastructure. The project also aimed to build the capacity of the local government in building climate resilient infrastructure through various stakeholders and capacity building activities. Owning to the limitation of the available data and information as well as the timeframe and scale of the project, the recommendations in this project have been assessed at pre-feasibility level where some assumptions were made. It is expected that recommendations will be further studied and evaluated in detail in other future initiatives. 516. The current infrastructure deficit in the three selected Pourashavas were identified and assessed. Based on a participatory approach, recommendations for each of the Pilot Pourashava have been developed considering baseline conditions and needs to meet further growth and development. Capacity to meet current demand in water supply, drainage and sanitation as well as climate extremes preparation were then used to assess and recommend strategies and options for building climate resilience into planning process for future development. 517. To assess the potential impact of climate change to the study Pourashava, information of the existing local climatic situation as well as potential climate changes in regional and local scales were collected. Reports of other climate initiatives concerning Bangladesh and South Asia have been obtained and reviewed, while field visits to the study areas were carried out. Regional downscaling results for RCM were used to create future climate change scenarios for the study areas. 518. The likelihood and intensity of changes of various climatic parameters such as temperatures, rainfall, cyclones and sea-level were assessed to provide information for identification and assessment of a range of possible adaptation options. Projected impacts include increasing day time temperature and number of days of high temperatures, increasing rainfall during monsoon season and number of intense rainfall events, increase sea-level rise, and likelihood that the regions is subject to the impact of most intense storm. 519. In addition to the analysis of the potential climate change scenarios, urban drainage modeling was set up and implemented to assist the analysis of the infrastructure deficits and loss induced by the climate change. Structural and non-structural interventions as well as strategies to cope with the potential impacts were considered and explored based on the findings as well as the consideration of the capacity and priority of the study Pourashava. 520. Stakeholder consultation and discussion at each Pourashava and Dhaka were held to supplement the abovementioned activities to provide area specific information for climate change impact assessment, as well as identification and evaluation of possible adaptation options to build climate resilience for coping with climate change. The costs of climate change as well as the benefits of adaptations have been estimated based on these findings, and comparison of the scenarios of i.) there is climate change but adaptation interventions are not adopted, and ii.) there is climate change and adaptation interventions are adopted, by 2050. 521. To build the institutional capacity to build climate resilient infrastructure and raise the awareness of climate change, the Consultant has organized various events such as workshops

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TA 7890-BAN: Strengthening the Resilience of the Urban Water Supply, Drainage, and Sanitation to Climate Change in Coastal Towns Final Report – Main Report at each study Pourashavas as well as Dhaka for stakeholders of regional and national level. In addition, technical training on urban drainage modeling was also given to build the institutional capacity on climate resilient infrastructure development. 522. The key findings and recommendations for each study Pourashavas are summarised in the tables below.

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Table 11-1 Summary of Findings and Recommendations for Amtali Infrastructure Improvement Additional Recommendations for building Amtali Present situation needed (without considering cost of climate resilience climate change) adaptation Water The Pourashava has 2 production Ensure safe water for drinking Provide more water adopt rainwater tubewells. The quantity supplied is and other domestic uses 24 harvesting $0.459 million currently inadequate. hours 7 days a week. Protect pumping station and electricity supply BDT lac 358 Only 37% of households have Water network needs extension In flood prone areas hand tube wells to house connections to serve more of the population be installed above flood level. It is estimated that currently 60% of High level water supply needed in the population are supplied with Cyclone shelters. water. The rest of the population has Consider provision of more storage to access to public and private hand supply water in emergencies tube-wells. Shallow groundwater is unacceptably saline with ponds drying out in the dry season. Sanitation: 95% of population served by Flood prone latrines to be New toilets need to be installed above sanitary latrines and septic tanks. upgraded to be raised latrines. flood level $0.193 million High level toilets needed in Cyclone Problems when flooding occurs Public and community latrines need rehabilitation shelters. Public and community latrines Sludge treatment facilities need installing BDT lac 153 inadequate Vacuum tanker needed by above flood level municipality. Desludging of pit latrines inadequate Population need help in constructing high level latrines Solid waste management Sanitary landfill required to stop Sanitary landfill needs protection from Solid waste disposed of into khals deposition of waste into the floods and wasteland khals Flood control & River Erosion: Existing khals need desilting Higher level embankments required to Two Wards lie outside the flood and re-excavation provide emergency refuge areas protection embankment and are Repairs to the polder Additional bank protection required.

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Infrastructure Improvement Additional Recommendations for building Amtali Present situation needed (without considering cost of climate resilience climate change) adaptation frequently flooded embankment protecting Amtali Additional Green belt / afforestation $1.363 million Erosion from the Payra River is are currently being undertaken needed affecting some areas. as part of the “Emergency 2007 Construction of embankments to protect BDT lac 1,063 Lack of cyclone shelters and Cyclone Recovery and essential infrastructure. knowledge Restoration Project Additional outfall gates required More cyclone shelters needed Construct 2 more cyclone shelters Intensive early warning (local Raise existing road embankments to language) and Training provide flood refuges regarding disaster preparedness needed Drainage Up to 90% of the urban area is Tidal outfalls need improvement Encourage people in low-lying areas to flooded on a regular basis. New drains are required in raise their house plinth level above Lack of drainage causes prolonged residential areas. flood level Capacity of drains to be increased water-logging of residential areas Drainage Master Plan required. during normal rainfalls When heavy rainfall occurs with high tide conditions the drains do not permit effective drainage of the areas and cause congestion and flooding in the area.

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Table 11-2 Summary of Findings and Recommendations for Galachipa Additional Recommendations for building Galachipa Present situation Current Infrastructure cost of climate resilience adaptation Water Provide more water adopt rainwater The Pourashava has 2 PTWs. Water Ensure safe water for drinking harvesting quality is good. and other domestic uses 24 $0.459million Protect pumping station and electricity hours 7 days a week. Only 34% of households have house supply connections New PTW needed to provide In flood prone areas hand tube wells to BDT lac 358 security of supply It is estimated that about 76% of the be installed above flood level. Pourashava area is covered by New tubewells are urgently Consider provision of more storage to water supply piped networks – required to serve the remaining supply water in emergencies household connections and urban population. standpipes. The rest of the Extension of the existing pipe population has access to public and private hand tube-wells. network is required Sanitation: 98% of population served by Flood prone latrines to be New toilets need to be installed sanitary latrines with 40% having upgraded to raised latrines. above flood level $1.679 million septic tanks, 40% having water sealed slab latrine and 18% Simple New public and community High level toilets needed in Cyclone latrines needed and existing shelters. BDT lac 350 Pit Latrines latrines need rehabilitation Problems during flood events Sludge treatment facilities need Vacuum tanker needed by installing above flood level Public and community latrines municipality. Population need help in constructing inadequate high level latrines Desludging of pit latrines inadequate Solid waste management Sanitary landfill required stop Sanitary landfill needs protection from Solid waste disposed of into khals deposition of waste into the floods and wasteland khals

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Additional Recommendations for building Galachipa Present situation Current Infrastructure cost of climate resilience adaptation Flood control & River Erosion: Higher level embankments required to Two Wards are outside the Existing khals need desilting provide emergency refuge areas Embankment and are prone to and re-excavation Additional bank protection required. frequent flooding from the $0.893 million Repair and rehabilitation of Additional Green belt / afforestation Ramnabad River. polder 55/1 of Galachipa is in needed If river floods, high tides, and heavy progress. The programme is Construction of embankments to protect BDT lac 696 rainfall occur at the same time as being implemented under the essential infrastructure. happened in 1988 very extensive “Emergency 2007 Cyclone Additional outfall gates required flooding can occur Recovery and Restoration Construct 2 more cyclone shelters Project” of the World Bank Raise existing road embankments to Lack of cyclone shelters and provide flood refuges knowledge More cyclone shelters needed

Intensive early warning (local language) and Training regarding disaster preparedness needed Drainage System Master plan for drainage Capacity of drains to be increased needed More sluices needed to remove flood Unplanned drainage system Construct and improve outfalls waters Encourage people in low-lying areas to Blocked sluice gates. Tidal outfalls need improvement raise their house plinth level above When heavy rainfall occurs with high Existing khals need desilting flood level tide conditions the drains do not and re-excavation with permit effective drainage of the encroachments removed. areas and cause congestion and flooding in the area..

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Table 11-3 Summary of Findings and Recommendations for Pirojpur Additional Recommendations for building Pirojpur Present situation Current Infrastructure cost of climate resilience adaptation Water Surface water intakes from Ensure safe water for drinking Provide more water adopt rainwater Baleshwar River. and other domestic uses 24 harvesting $0.650million 33% of the existing population has a hours 7 days a week. Protect pumping station and electricity supply water supply connection, 18% of New water supply scheme to BDT lac 507 population supplied by stand-pipes. increase supply with an In flood prone areas hand tube wells to Treated the water quality is good. additional 6,000m3/day and to be installed above flood level. 2,000m3/ day are currently supplied. increase the network extent and Consider provision of more storage to supply water in emergencies Salinity of source water not a number of connections is under problem construction. Additional tube wells needed to supply outer areas. Sanitation: 90% of population served by Flood prone latrines to be New toilets need to be installed above sanitary latrines and septic tanks. upgraded to be raised latrines. flood level Problems when flooding occurs Public and community latrines High level toilets needed in Cyclone $0.731million shelters. Public and community latrines need rehabilitation Sludge treatment facilities need installing inadequate Vacuum tanker needed by above flood level BDT lac 570 municipality. Desludging of pit latrines inadequate Population need help in constructing high level latrines Solid waste management Sanitary landfill required stop Sanitary landfill needs protection from Solid waste disposed of into khals deposition of waste into the floods and wasteland khals Flood control & River Erosion: Existing embankments do not A plan to empolder the Higher level embankments required to provide emergency refuge areas provide protection during flood Pourashava has been proposed $1.713million Additional bank protection around town events, Wards outside the Damodar Khal requires re-

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Additional Recommendations for building Pirojpur Present situation Current Infrastructure cost of climate resilience adaptation embankment and are flooded excavation New flood control core required. Damodar Khal blocked by embankment needed. Additional Green belt / afforestation BDT lac 1,336 encroachment Re-excavate Khals, beels, rivers needed Construction of embankments to protect Lack of cyclone shelters and and ponds. essential infrastructure. knowledge More cyclone shelters needed Intensive early warning (local language) and Training regarding disaster preparedness Drainage System Master plan for drainage needed Additional drainage as identified by Unplanned drainage system Construct and improve outfalls modelling to be constructed to Specific activities proposed Excessive water logging overcome additional flooding from Remove encroachment climate change Many khals are heavily silted and Rehabilitate /replace sluices More sluices needed to remove flood some have suffered from Existing Khals need desilting waters encroachment. and encroachments removed. Encourage people in low-lying areas to Capacity of drainage outfalls is Tidal outfalls need improvement raise their house plinth level above inadequate with some blocked flood level sluice gates Waterlogging is a significant problem. Heavy rainfall and tidal surges result in extensive flooding. There is 91 km of primary drain

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