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Paleodemography: Age Distributions from Skeletal Samples MMMM This page intentionally left blank Cambridge Studies in Biological and Evolutionary Anthropology 31 Paleodemography: age distributions from skeletal samples Paleodemography is the field of inquiry that attempts to identify demo- graphic parameters from past populations (usually skeletal samples) derived from archaeological contexts, and then to make interpretations regarding the health and well-being of those populations. However, paleodemographic theory relies on several assumptions that cannot easily be validated by the researcher and, if incorrect, can lead to large errors or biases. In this book, physical anthropologists, mathematical demo- graphers and statisticians tackle these methodological issues for recon- structing demographic structure for skeletal samples. Topics discussed include how skeletal morphology is linked to chronological age, assess- ment of age from the skeleton, demographic models of mortality and their interpretation, and biostatistical approaches to age structure estimation from archaeological samples. This work will be of immense importance to anyone interested in paleodemography, including biological anthropol- ogists, demographers, geographers, evolutionary biologists and statis- ticians. . is a physical anthropologist in the Department of Anthropology at the University of Manitoba. His research interests in- clude historical demography, epidemiology, human skeletal biology, growth and development and forensic anthropology. He has also coedited Human growth in the past: studies from bones and teeth (1999; ISBN 0 521 63153 X). . is a demographer and is currently Director of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany. He is also Professor of Demography and Epidemiology at the Institute of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, and Senior Research Scientist at the Sanford Institute at Duke University in North Carolina. His research focuses on human biodemography, human longev- ity, and centenarian research. He has authored or edited numerous books in the field of demography, particularly oldest old mortality, including Population data at a glance (1997), The force of mortality at ages 80 to 120 (1998), and Validation of exceptional longevity (1999). MMMM Cambridge Studies in Biological and Evolutionary Anthropology Series Editors C. G. Nicholas Mascie-Taylor, University of Cambridge Michael A. Little, State University of New York, Binghamton Kenneth M. Weiss, Pennsylvania State University Robert A. Foley, University of Cambridge Nina G. Jablonski, California Academy of Science Karen B. Strier, University of Wisconsin, Madison Consulting Editors Emeritus Professor Derek F. Roberts Emeritus Professor Gabriel W. Lasker Selected titles also in the series 16 Human Energetics in Biological Anthropology Stanley J. Ulijaszek 0 521 43295 2 17 Health Consequences of ‘Modernisation’ Roy J. Shephard & Anders Rode 0 521 47401 9 18 The Evolution of Modern Human Diversity Marta M. Lahr 0 521 47393 4 19 Variability in Human Fertility Lyliane Rosetta & C. G. N. Mascie-Taylor (eds.) 0 521 49569 5 20 Anthropology of Modern Human Teeth G. Richard Scott & Christy G. Turner II 0 521 45508 1 21 Bioarchaeology Clark S. Larsen 0 521 49641 (hardback), 0 521 65834 9 (paperback) 22 Comparative Primate Socioecology P. C. Lee (ed.) 0 521 59336 0 23 Patterns of Human Growth, second edition Barry Bogin 0 521 56438 7 (paperback) 24 Migration and Colonisation in Human Microevolution Alan Fix 0 521 59206 2 25 Human Growth in the Past Robert D. Hoppa & Charles M. FitzGerald (eds.) 0 521 63153 X 26 Human Paleobiology Robert B. Eckhardt 0 521 45160 4 27 Mountain Gorillas Martha M. Robbins, Pascale Sicotte & Kelly J. Stewart (eds.) 0 521 76004 7 28 Evolution and Genetics of Latin American Populations Francisco M. Salzano & Maria C. Bortolini 0 521 65275 8 29 Primates Face to Face Agustı´ n Fuentes & Linda D. Wolfe (eds.) 0 521 679109 X 30 The Human Biology of Pastoralist Populations William R. Leonard & Michael H. Crawford (eds.) 0 521 78016 0 MMMM Paleodemography age distributions from skeletal samples ROBERT D. HOPPA University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada JAMES W. VAUPEL Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge , United Kingdom Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521800631 © Cambridge University Press 2002 This book is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published in print format 2002 isbn-13- 978-0-511-06326-8 eBook (NetLibrary) isbn-10- 0-511-06326-1 eBook (NetLibrary) isbn-13- 978-0-521-80063-1 hardback isbn-10- 0-521-80063-3 hardback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of s for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this book, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. To our families MMMM Contents Listofcontributorsxi Acknowledgmentsxiii 1 The Rostock Manifesto for paleodemography: thewayfromstagetoage1 . . 2Paleodemography:lookingbackandthinkingahead9 . 3 Reference samples: the first step in linking biology and ageinthehumanskeleton29 . 4 Aging through the ages: historical perspectives on age indicatormethods48 - 5 Transition analysis: a new method for estimating age fromskeletons73 . , . , . , . 6 Age estimation by tooth cementum annulation: perspectivesofanewvalidationstudy107 - 7Mortalitymodelsforpaleodemography129 . , . , . ’, . 8 Linking age-at-death distributions and ancient populationdynamics:acasestudy169 . . 9 A solution to the problem of obtaining a mortality schedule forpaleodemographicdata181 - ¨ ix x Contents 10 Estimating age-at-death distributions from skeletal samples: amultivariatelatent-traitapproach193 . , . , . ’ 11 Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation of hazard model parametersinpaleodemography222 . . 12 A re-examination of the age-at-death distribution of IndianKnoll243 . . Index258 Contributors Jesper L. Boldsen Anthropological Data Base Odense University (ADBOU) and Danish Center for Demographic Research, Odense University, Sdr. Boulevard 23 A, DK 5000 Odense C, Denmark Helene Buba Institute for Anthropology, Department of Biology, University of Geissen, Wart- weg 49, D-35392 Geissen, Germany Rebecca J. Ferrell Department of Anthropology and Population Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA Nicholas P. Herrmann Department of Anthropology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA Darryl J. Holman Department of Anthropology and Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA Robert D. Hoppa Department of Anthropology, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada R3T 5V5 Ariane Kemkes-Grottenthaler Fachbereich Biologie (21), Institut fu¨r Anthropologie, Johannes Gutenberg- Universita¨t, Colonel-Kleinmann-Weg 2, SB II, 2.Stock, D-55099 Mainz, Germany Lyle W. Konigsberg Department of Anthropology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA Bradley Love Molecular Dynamics Inc., 928 East Arques Avenue, Sunnyvale, CA 94085-4520, USA George R. Milner Department of Anthropology, Pennsylvania State University, 409 Carpenter Building, University Park, PA 16802, USA xi xii Contributors Hans-Georg Mu¨ ller Division of Statistics, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA Kathleen A. O’Connor Department of Anthropology and Center for Studies of Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA Richard R. Paine Department of Anthropology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112-0060, USA Bethany M. Usher Department of Anthropology, SUNY Potsdam, 44 Pierrepont Avenue, Potsdam, NY 13676, USA James W. Vaupel Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Doberaner Strasse 114, Rostock 18057, Germany Ursula Wittwer-Backofen Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Doberaner Strasse 114, Rostock 18057, Germany James W. Wood Department of Anthropology and Population Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University, 409 Carpenter Building, University Park, PA 16802, USA Acknowledgments This volume represents the cumulative efforts of those who participated in the workshops on paleodemography hosted in June 1999 and August 2000 at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. We would like to extend our gratitude to all of our contributors who have taken the time and effort to provide us with exciting and original perspectives on paleo- demogaphic reconstructions. As with any project that brings together experts from many fields, finding common ground for notation was not a simple task. All contributors are to be acknowledged for their tolerance of having to comply with the group compromise for notation. At Cambridge University Press, Tracey Sanderson, as always, was supportive of this project from its inception. For her skillful editorial eye, we are again indebted to Sandi Irvine for her meticulous copy-editing of the volume. The workshops that led to the production of this work were facilitated by the conscientious efforts of many of the administrative staff at the Max Planck Institute
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